Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

As Kherson celebrates its fresh liberation after eight long months of Russian occupation, and as residents pour into its streets with bright smiles and shiny flags, disturbing accounts of torture and abuse at the hands of Russian soldiers are emerging as well, with people finally free to talk. – New York Times

William J. Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, met with his Russian counterpart in Turkey on Monday to warn Russia against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a White House spokesman said. – New York Times

More than 1 million barrels a day of Russian oil exports are set to be obstructed by Western sanctions that are expected to come into force within weeks, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, and Moscow will struggle to redirect shipments elsewhere, threatening to further tighten global energy markets. – Wall Street Journal

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree amending the regulations for Russians with a second citizenship to serve in Russia’s armed forces, in a move that could help bolster the ranks of the military as Moscow continues to pursue its military campaign in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

The Treasury Department on Monday imposed sanctions on four dozen people across six countries, and companies associated with them, an effort to tighten the U.S. campaign of economic pressure on Russia. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday called on the Group of 20 (G20) major economies meeting in Indonesia to step up their leadership and stop Russia’s war in his country under a peace plan he has proposed. – Reuters

After recapturing Kherson from Russian forces and assured of unstinting U.S. support, Ukraine is well positioned to push its advantage in the war rather than accept frozen frontlines through winter, some military analysts said. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Tuesday extended his support for Ukraine at the G20 summit while confirming a long-planned order for warships from BAE Systems. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stayed in the room during a virtual address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to a Group of 20 summit, before firing back with a litany of often-made but unsubstantiated accusations, people familiar with the matter said. – Bloomberg

The Ukrainian government is working with supporter nations to fund new shipments of grain around the anniversary of the 1930s Holodomor famine — a symbolic push that comes amid discussions to extend a deal that allows grain exports from its war-stricken ports. – Bloomberg

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak plans to call for the Group of 20 summit to help end the war in Ukraine by closing loopholes exploited by Russian President Vladimir Putin for years. – Bloomberg

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy joined U.S. President Joe Biden in trying to persuade other leaders of the world’s largest economies to further isolate Russia diplomatically and economically over its invasion of Ukraine, despite a souring global financial outlook that has tested many nations’ resolve. – Associated Press 

The European Council president urged global powers Tuesday to intensify pressure on Russia over its war against Ukraine, including Moscow’s biggest supporter, China, saying that this week’s meeting of the world’s largest economies was crucial to stopping Moscow’s push “to use food and energy as weapons.” – Associated Press 

The U.N. General Assembly approved a resolution Monday calling for Russia to be held accountable for violating international law by invading Ukraine, including by paying reparations for widespread damage to the country and for Ukrainians killed and injured during the war. – Associated Press 

The U.S. said Monday it was imposing sanctions on a list of people and firms around the globe that it alleged are involved in supporting Russia’s military as it wages war on Ukraine. – Associated Press 

Russia’s latest demands to start peace negotiations without withdrawing troops from Ukraine is a ploy to buy time for the next phase of the war, according to the top Ukrainian diplomat. – Washington Examiner

Russia’s pummeling of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has “slowed down” since the start of November, a senior U.S. military official said on Monday. – Washington Examiner

Russia expects evidence of “people tortured to death” in Kherson to surface following Ukraine’s liberation of the city, according to a pro-Russian occupation government official. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that “the bodies of both civilians and military personnel are being found” in Kherson, which he visited Monday to hail “the beginning of the end of the war.” – Washington Examiner

President Joe Biden described Russian forces’ withdrawal from Kherson, the strategic southern city, as a “significant victory” for Ukraine. – Washington Examiner

Boris Johnson writes: The assistance of the West—above all, of the U.S.—has been outstanding and invaluable. Our job is to continue to give that help until the Ukrainians have won, and decisively. And then of course there will be time to negotiate a peaceful, orderly and lasting relationship, and friendship, between Ukraine and Russia. – Wall Street Journal

Dr. Vladislav L. Inozemtsev writes: The Kremlin leader seems unable to realize that to lead developing nations, a superpower needs to have both strategy and resources that may encourage the “peripheral” countries to take its side in a global showdown with competing powers, while those nations who do not want to be involved in any significant confrontation would rather avoid any “external” leadership, as happened with the Non-Aligned Movement created and led by the postcolonial states themselves. A former empire with a collapsing economy, dreaming of its restoration, cannot lead an “anticolonial” movement, and therefore a “new” Russian geopolitical doctrine will yield few results, if any. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Konstantin Sonin writes: No matter the outcome, however, Russia will emerge from the war with its government exercising authority over the private sector to an extent that is unprecedented anywhere in the world aside from Cuba and North Korea. The Russian government will be omnipresent yet simultaneously not strong enough to protect businesses from mafia groups consisting of demobilized soldiers armed with weapons they acquired during the war. Particularly at first, they will target the most profitable enterprises, both at the national and local level. – Foreign Affairs

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Layne Philipson, Angela Howard, Yekaterina Klepanchuk, Madison Williams, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Russian occupation officials continued efforts to relocate their administrative presence away from the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast on November 14. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 14 that the Russian Duma Liberal Democratic deputies Leonid Slutsky, Vladimir Koshelev, and Vladimir Sibyagin are supervising Kherson occupation officials as they attempt to launch operations of the administrative center after officially moving the Kherson Oblast temporary administrative capital to Henichesk on November 12. – Institute for the Study of War

Mart Kuldkepp writes: There exists a broad cross-party support for Ukraine almost everywhere in the West, and while Western resolve is never as strong as it should be, neither is it so weak and superficial as to evaporate in face of the challenges that weakened Russia is still able to mount. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Courtney Stiles Herdt and Matthew “BINCS” Zublic write: Presence and deterrence operations in the Baltic Sea need to be increased, but this will not keep a revanchist and retaliatory Russia at bay. The recently released National Security Strategy (NSS) states, “Russia now poses an immediate and persistent threat to international peace and stability.” The nations of the region, alongside their partners and allies, need to take immediate additional steps, particularly because the invasion of Ukraine has already diminished the available decision space. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Thomas Spoehr writes: In the event of such a Russian attack on a commercial satellite, the Administration would most likely apply the same policy in space that it has used for proposals like a no-fly zone or the provision of Army Tactical Missile System missiles in the Ukraine conflict and be very circumspect and low-key in any response. The Administration would likely rely on a proportional low-profile cyberattack and electronic warfare to disable a Russian satellite—if it responded at all. – Heritage Foundation

Turkey

Turkish authorities have detained 46 suspects in connection with a deadly bomb attack on one of Istanbul’s busiest shopping streets, including a woman they said had planted the explosives, police said Monday. – Washington Post 

Turkey has said the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia were responsible for a blast on the historic Istiklal Avenue in Istanbul on Sunday that killed six people, an incident that recalled similar attacks in years past. – Reuters

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) denied Monday any role in a deadly bomb attack in central Istanbul that killed six people, which Turkey has blamed on Kurdish militants. – Agence France-Presse 

Turkey plans to pursue targets in northern Syria after it completes a cross-border operation against outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants in Iraq, a senior official said on Tuesday, after a deadly weekend bomb in Istanbul. – Reuters

The government of President Erdogan, in the face of Sunday’s apparent terrorist bombing that killed six people at Istanbul, is exploiting the event to stoke national anger against Turkey’s perennial political boogiemen — America and the Kurds. – New York Sun

Two Israeli women were spotted walking alongside a suspected terrorist who reportedly placed the explosive device in the Turkish city of Istanbul on Sunday. – Ynet 

Andreas Kluth writes: Trying to figure out what Erdogan really wants has therefore become an obsession in NATO capitals second only to analyzing Putin’s mind. Is Erdogan just blustering in the runup to the election? Is he angling for sweetheart military deals with the US? Does he actually want to rebuild Turkey in the image of the Ottomans, rather as Putin fantasizes about restoring the empire of the Tsars? Above all, would Erdogan be a reliable ally in the event of war? – Bloomberg

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Kobani is currently controlled by the YPG and the Syrian regime. From Ankara’s perspective, the YPG is actually the Syrian branch of the “PKK” and therefore a terrorist group. However, YPG is also part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the anti-ISIS group backed by the US. This complex militaristic and national reality means that when Ankara wants to blame “terrorists” for an incident, it will not just blame the PKK, but also the YPG and SDF, as well as the US. This isn’t a new type of narrative from Ankara; Turkey’s leadership has accused the US of backing “terrorists” in Syria for years. – Jerusalem Post 

Middle East & North Africa

The U.S. Navy said Tuesday it found 70 tons of a missile fuel component hidden among bags of fertilizer aboard a ship bound to Yemen from Iran, the first-such seizure in that country’s yearslong war as a cease-fire there has broken down. – Associated Press 

A senior United Arab Emirates official called on Monday for “codified and unambivalent” commitments from the United States to its security, adding it had no interest in “choosing sides”. – Reuters

Charles Jabbour, head of the media and communications department of Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces party, known for its opposition to Hizbullah, comes out against this organization in an article published recently in the daily Al-Jumhouriyya, which is affiliated with his party. In the article he calls on the Lebanese to “divorce” Hizbullah, namely to divide Lebanon into two states. – Middle East Media Research Institute

David L. Phillips writes: Additionally, the United States has a national security interest in helping the Sudanese resolve their differences and form a civilian-led government. Stability in Sudan would have a ripple effect across the Horn of Africa, impacting war-torn countries such as Ethiopia and Libya. Absent effective engagement by the United States, Russia is waiting in the wings to intensify its economic exploitation and malign anti-democratic activities. – The National Interest

China

President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping sought to halt a rapid downward spiral in relations between Washington and Beijing, instructing officials to resume stalled talks on major global priorities, but the two countries acknowledged areas of deep disagreement that could disrupt those efforts. – Wall Street Journal

Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, plans to visit China early next year to follow up on the meeting between President Biden and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Bali, Indonesia, a State Department official in Washington said on Monday. – New York Times

Leaders of the world’s No. 2 economy will stick to a path of peaceful development, Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan said, remarks that come as Washington and Beijing take early steps to cool tensions. – Bloomberg

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger praised renewed talks between the US and China at a summit in Bali, but said a long path remains to prevent conflict between the world’s largest economies. – Bloomberg

After Xi Jinping spoke for more than three hours on Monday with Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit, China’s readout of the meeting indicates the country’s approach to US ties is shifting. – Bloomberg

US and China cannot dominate discussions on the appropriate use of subsidies and trade restrictions, Mari Elka Pangestu, World Bank managing director for development policy and partnerships, said at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore on Tuesday. It should involve the World Trade Organization, which has its own list of exceptions in matters of security. – Bloomberg

President Joe Biden said that he doesn’t believe Chinese President Xi Jinping plans an “imminent” attack on Taiwan, after a highly anticipated in-person meeting intended to stabilize a deteriorating relationship between the countries. – Bloomberg

The world’s two most powerful leaders — Presidents Biden and Xi — skated and danced around their differences Monday, resolving, if nothing else, not to go to war while yielding little of substance on anything. – New York Sun

Editorial: The president must remember that the only thing that Xi fears more than he desires Taiwan’s submission is a failed attempt to achieve that submission. Were Xi to lead the People’s Liberation Army to the bottom of the Taiwan Strait, his rule and that of the Communist Party might well come into question. If Biden can persuade Xi that the U.S. is likely to act over his attack on Taiwan, he may be deterred from doing so in the first place. – Washington Examiner

Rebekah Koffler writes: Although Putin and Xi announced a “no limits” strategic partnership prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is unlikely that Moscow would share its assessments of President Biden with Beijing. Underneath the showy displays of friendship, there’s deep mistrust between the two countries that consider themselves rivals and even opponents in the long term. – Fox News

Rebecca Grant writes: In the decade ahead, the U.S. will be hard-pressed to buy enough new B-21 bombers, nuclear missiles and Columbia-class submarines to deter China.  Biden needs to drop the Obama-era no nukes verbiage and tell Xi the U.S. will deter China’s nuclear ambitions. – Fox News

Scott Kennedy writes: Expanding direct, in-person communication between American and Chinese governments and societies is central to responsibly pursuing strategic competition in a way that reduces the likelihood of outright conflict, strengthens U.S. national security and economy, and increases the possibility that the United States and China could collaboratively address climate change and other global challenges. – Foreign Policy

Asia

Over nearly seven decades, Japan has relied on commitments from the United States, its most important ally, for protection in the event of an enemy attack. Japan hosts the largest contingent of overseas American troops and regularly conducts drills with them. It has purchased more American-made F-35 stealth fighter jets than any other country outside the United States. – New York Times

President Joe Biden objected directly to China’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive actions” toward Taiwan during the first in-person meeting of his presidency with Xi Jinping, as the two superpower leaders aimed on Monday to “manage” their differences in the competition for global influence. – Associated Press 

Chinese President Xi Jinping has agreed to resume climate change talks with the United States, President Joe Biden said Monday, three months after Xi suspended those contacts in anger over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. – Associated Press 

Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said the meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping Monday yielded “reasonable progress” and showed two competing nations seeking to ease tensions. – Bloomberg

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak refused to rule out sending arms to Taiwan as his government reviews its foreign, defense and security policy. – Bloomberg

The US and the Philippines will start building training facilities and warehouses on the Southeast Asian nation’s military bases next year, as the longtime defense allies seek to boost ties. – Bloomberg

The great-grandson of former Taiwan leader Chiang Kai-shek leads polls in the race to be the next mayor of Taipei, as the island prepares for local elections that present a key test for President Tsai Ing-wen’s leadership. – Bloomberg

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet in-person on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit on Tuesday, the first such talks between leaders of the two countries since 2019 that’s likely to touch on trade. – Bloomberg

Africa

Britain will pull out its 300 troops from a U.N. peacekeeping force in Mali following similar withdrawals this year by other Western nations, a government minister said on Monday. – Reuters

Zambia has asked Russia to explain how one of its citizens who had been serving a prison sentence in Moscow ended up on the battlefield in Ukraine, where he was killed, Zambia’s foreign affairs minister said on Monday. – Reuters

Troops and rebels traded heavy fire in eastern DR Congo on Monday, a military source and local inhabitants said, as an envoy from the East African bloc pursued efforts to hold a “peace dialogue” on the region’s troubles. – Agence France-Presse 

The United States said Monday it was increasing its reward for information about key leaders of Somalia’s Al-Shabaab to $10 million apiece, a move that follows a spate of deadly attacks by the jihadist group. – Yahoo News

Cybersecurity

This week, pro-Russian hackers claimed responsibility for what they said was an attack on a section of the FBI’s website, the newest addition to a recent string of purported attacks on U.S. government websites from Russian-aligned hackers. – Newsweek 

Famed venture capitalist Marc Andreessen coined the phrase, “Software is eating the world” in a Wall Street Journal op-ed back in 2011. More than a decade later, this couldn’t be truer with more devices, running more software, and creating a larger, more complex attack surface to combat and manage. Yet, we still rely on the cryptographic methods created nearly half a century ago. – C4isrnet

Experts weigh in on how Congress’ cyber agenda will change next year with the GOP seeing expanded power in the House and Democrats keeping the Senate. – The Hill