Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Senior U.S. officials are in Israel discussing a draft agreement to end the war in Lebanon that would allow Israel to continue striking Lebanon for a two-month period, a proposal that is likely to face steep resistance from Hezbollah and the Lebanese government over concerns it violates the country’s sovereignty. – Wall Street Journal

Nearly a quarter of all buildings in 25 Lebanese municipalities near the Israeli border had been damaged or destroyed as of Saturday, according to an analysis of satellite data by The Washington Post — illustrating the far-reaching toll of Israel’s land and air war against Hezbollah. – Washington Post

Israeli forces struck one of the last functioning hospitals in besieged northern Gaza on Thursday, destroying a stockpile of medical supplies that had been delivered to the facility days ago by the World Health Organization, according to Palestinian officials and a spokeswoman for the U.N. agency. – New York Times

Farmers in the Gaza Strip once tended eggplants, peppers and tomatoes in modest plots squeezed between the territory’s urban sprawl and the watchtowers of the Israeli border wall. But after more than a year of war, the farms are in ruins, their fields damaged by tanks and troop movements, their equipment destroyed and many farmers killed. – New York Times

Israeli security forces have broken up a suspected spy ring inside Israel that was working on behalf of Iranian intelligence – the latest such espionage group in weeks to be announced, the Shin Bet and police said on Thursday. – Reuters

A number of civilians were wounded and material damage was caused by an “Israeli aggression” on Qusayr in Homs province, in central Syria, Syrian state media reported on Thursday. – Reuters

Israeli bulldozers damaged the office of U.N. aid agency UNRWA in the West Bank’s Nur Shams camp on Thursday, the agency’s chief said, with Israel disputing his account in the latest exchange between both sides. – Reuters

Four Thai nationals were killed and one was injured by rocket fire near the town of Metula, close to the border between Lebanon and Israel, Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa posted on the social media platform X on Friday. – Reuters

Israel carried out air strikes early on Friday on Beirut’s southern suburbs, Reuters witnesses said, the first strikes there in nearly a week. – Reuters

Israel’s decision for a month’s waiver extension on co-operation between Israeli and Palestinian banks covered a “very short term” and would create “another looming crisis” by Nov. 30, the United States warned on Thursday. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. envoys on Thursday that Israel’s ability to counter threats to its security from Lebanon and return displaced people to the north were key elements of any ceasefire deal with Lebanon. – Reuters

Israeli media outlets on Thursday said they have requested that the Central District Magistrate’s Court lift a gag order over reports that would cause “massive disruption” in the Prime Minister’s Office. – Jerusalem Post

Israel and Vietnam have agreed on a new free trade agreement that will come into effect in November, the government shared on Thursday. The deal aims to simplify trade for different products, including electronics, vehicles, medical devices, fresh produce, and food products. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Many Israelis have begun referring to them on social media as the Likud rebels, and we see this as an apt nickname. It takes a lot of courage to break from party ranks and stand up for what you believe in. Whether or not one agrees with Illouz and Saada on their positions, the fact that these two rookie MKs are speaking out against something as scornworthy as this government initiative instead of keeping their heads down and towing the line like so many others is something to be commended. – Jerusalem Post

Major-General (Res) Yitzhak Brick writes: But to my great regret, throughout all the fighting that has continued for more than a year, and even though the Defense Minister and Chief of Staff decided to implement our recommendations in the report – nothing has been done. There is mental and practical fixation, and the IDF is unprepared for future challenges. In conclusion, what we need is not a large budget increase; instead, we must balance American economic and military aid of tens of billions of dollars between all the needs mentioned above, and not invest most of it only in aircraft, with the rest receiving scraps – as is done today. – Jerusalem Post

Yaakov Katz writes: Such a resolution would be more likely if Trump wins. If Harris wins, Biden may hold back to avoid binding her administration’s hand. The result of the US election stands to redefine Israel’s war options. Netanyahu might be adept at navigating such diplomatic challenges, but he knows that this period calls for caution. While Israel has had strategic military gains in Gaza and Lebanon, with so much at stake, it needs to tread carefully to avoid getting ensnared in the crossfire of America’s political battleground. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

Above a battlefield littered with failed American drones, California startup Shield AI notched an important victory in Ukraine. The company in August became a rare Western supplier to demonstrate it can withstand the brutal electronic warfare that is downing drones across Ukraine. The country, which has preferred locally made drones, has now requested hundreds of Shield AI systems. – Wall Street Journal

Russian forces have escalated indiscriminate drone attacks against civilians in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, killing and maiming scores of people in what locals have described as a “human safari.” – Washington Post

Over the past month, Russian forces have seized more than 160 square miles of land in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, the main theater of the war today. That has allowed them to take control of strategic towns that anchored Ukrainian defenses in the area, beginning with Vuhledar in early October. This past week, battle has raged in Selydove, which now appears lost. – New York Times

Russia launched more than 2,000 attack drones at civilian and military targets across Ukraine last month, Kyiv’s military said on Friday, as Kremlin forces press a grinding offensive on the front line of their February 2022 invasion. – Reuters

Russia is “surprised” that Turkey continues to supply Ukraine with weapons while trying to act as a mediator in the conflict between the two countries, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Hurriyet newspaper. – Reuters

The United States has received information that indicates that “right now” there are 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region, deputy U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Robert Wood told the Security Council on Thursday. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy blasted what he called his allies’ “zero” response to Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops for the war in Ukraine, saying on Thursday a weak reaction would encourage Russia’s Vladimir Putin to beef up the contingent. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov plans to visit Malta in December to take part in a meeting of the Ministerial Council of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Vedomosti daily reported on Friday, citing foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. – Reuters

Russia’s torture of Ukrainian civilians and prisoners of war is a crime against humanity, U.N.-backed human rights experts said Thursday. Erik Møse, chair of the independent commission investigating human rights violations in Ukraine, told reporters that the panel previously described Russia’s widespread and systematic use of torture in Ukraine and Russia against civilians and prisoners, both men and women, as a war crime. – Associated Press

Russian forces struck a residential building in Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv on Thursday, killing three, including two teenage boys, and injuring scores of others, and launched scores of other attacks as they continued their grinding onslaught in the country’s east. – Associated Press

Todd Harrison writes: Any nation that may seek to destabilize the world by using or threatening to use a nuclear weapon in space must understand that it will not work to their advantage. In an instant, they will turn the rest of the world against them, and they will suffer much greater military and economic losses on Earth than any gains they may hope to achieve in space. While the United States cannot be certain of Russia’s intent, it can make Russia certain about its intent. The next administration, in lockstep with its allies, should make it crystal clear to Russia—and all other nations—that a nuclear attack in space will be regarded no differently than a nuclear attack on Earth. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

John Tefft and William Courtney write: In liberalizing the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, President Mikhail Gorbachev sought to reduce the military burden and improve ties with the West. To this end, he withdrew Soviet forces from Afghanistan and pursued arms control. No one knows if growing stresses in Russia will again bring forth liberalizing rule in Moscow. If this were to happen, the threat from Russia could ease. It is prudent for NATO, however, to plan for a Russia that wages war on Ukraine and threatens others. Such a Russia might not vanish overnight even if new leadership in Moscow were to emerge and seek to rebuild Western ties. – The National Interest

Aurel Braun writes: Still, for the sake of peace now, Ukraine and the West may need to agree to some territorial concessions, but for NATO to manage a future Russian threat, it must ensure that Russia is perceived to have lost overall in its aggression in Ukraine. But how? A peace agreement that makes territorial concessions contingent on NATO membership for Ukraine would draw a bright red line that would ensure sovereignty and safety for over eighty percent of Ukraine, contain Russia, and position the Alliance well to await Putinism’s eventual collapse under its toxic weight. – The National Interest

Turkey

Growing regional instability and changing political dynamics have prompted the first bid in a decade to end Turkey’s 40-year conflict with Kurdish militants, but its chances of success are unclear as Ankara has given no clues on what it may entail. – Reuters

A mayor from Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) was arrested late on Wednesday after prosecutors accused him of belonging to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), banned as a terrorist group in Turkey. – Reuters

Hundreds gathered Thursday in Istanbul to protest against the arrest and removal from office of a mayor from Turkey’s main opposition party for his alleged links to a banned Kurdish militant group. – Associated Press

Egypt

Egypt on Thursday denied it assisted Israeli military operations after media reports that an Egyptian port received a shipment of explosives bound for an Israeli defence contractor. – Reuters

Israel’s military said on Thursday it shot down a drone smuggling weapons from Egyptian territory to Israel on Wednesday. However, two Egyptian security officials dismissed the claim, stating that Egyptian border patrols had reported no evidence of weapons smuggling into Gaza or Israel on Wednesday. – Reuters

Mohamed Saad Khiralla writes: One can imagine the impact this has on the collective mindset of the Sinai community – in short, “The ideal model promoted by Egypt’s ruling regime is that of those who oppose the other.” Sisi also expressed his gratitude to Hajja Farhana for her significant contributions, stating, “In Sinai, we will establish a neighborhood named after Hajja Farhana so that we will always remember the favor.” When consider the role of state-owned media, officially controlled by Egyptian intelligence, and its significant contribution to the “hate and hostility toward Israel campaign,” which has been ongoing since the time of Abdel Nasser, we gain insight into the mindset we are entrenched in and what actions need to be taken (see the Magazine, “My longest 10 minutes” by Rami Mangoubi, June 1, 2007). – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Moroccan police have arrested a high-profile human rights activist Fouad Abdelmoumni on suspicion of reporting a false crime and spreading fake news on social media. – Reuters

Private equity giant Carlyle Group has sold its majority holdings in Tunisia-focused oil and gas producer Mazarine Energy to the company’s CEO Edward van Kersbergen, Mazarine said on Thursday. – Reuters

The U.N. Security Council voted to extend the mandate of the U.N. peacekeeping force in the Western Sahara for another year Thursday with Algeria refusing to vote in protest at the resolution’s failure to include a reference to monitoring human rights in the disputed north African territory. – Associated Press

China

China’s top legislative body gathers for a five-day meeting next week. Markets hope for a blockbuster fiscal package aimed at the economy’s weak spots. But optimists have been burned before and there’s a higher degree of skepticism this time around. – Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration is turning to an unlikely interlocutor as North Korean troops move into combat position to help Russia in its war in Ukraine. To convey threats to North Korea, U.S. officials are talking to China. And American officials say they hope the conversations further stoke any suspicions China might feel about the troop deployment. – New York Times

China’s aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong carried out dual aircraft carrier formation exercises for the first time in the South China Sea, the PLA navy said, a move that sets China’s navy up for more diverse and complex missions. – Reuters

China’s growing inroads in making electronic displays could create national security concerns for the United States by making it dependent on China for an essential component in military technologies, the authors of a new report said. – Reuters

The United States on Friday condemned the “unjust imprisonment” of prominent Chinese human rights lawyer Yu Wensheng and his wife Xu Yan, who were sentenced to three years and one year and nine months, respectively, by a Chinese court this week. – Reuters

Minxin Pei writes: Strategically, the Sino-Russian partnership may not be as solid as Xi thinks. If Trump follows through on his pledge to end support for Ukraine and succeeds in driving a wedge between Putin and Xi, China’s “bird in hand” could easily slip away. For now, these considerations may not trouble the Chinese leader. He and his underlings are likely to meet Trump 2.0 with defiance, not submission. The only certainty is that Sino-US tensions will get worse before they get better. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen deserves significant credit for these tariffs. She has pushed for a more coordinated and tougher EU response to Chinese trade manipulation and other challenges to the EU. She is detested by Beijing because she actually fights for EU interests and values. Beijing much prefers EU Council President Charles Michel, who was the Belgian prime minister between 2014-2019 and the poster child for defense freeloading in NATO. Just as he was a useful idiot for Russian President Vladimir Putin before, Michel is now choosing supplication toward Xi. This is just the beginning of this battle. However, if they want to protect the longer-term prosperity of both their individual member states and the political union at large, EU members will have to hang tough. – Washington Examiner

Stephen Hadley writes: By decisively curbing the adventurism of his axis partners, Washington could cause Xi to change course once again. It would surely be in his interest to do so. For if the recklessness of his partners brings sustained global instability and conflict, Xi himself would bear much of the blame for preventing the Communist Party from fulfilling its pledges to make China a “moderately developed economy” by 2035 and a “strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious, and modern socialist country” by 2049. The right U.S. strategy could make Xi understand that he can best serve his own interests by breaking with the axis of losers. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

The economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific region seems a touch brighter but as risks to growth mount, cautious policymaking will be needed, the International Monetary Fund said. Asia’s economic growth is expected to moderate this year and the next as the post pandemic boost fades and demographic factors like population aging increasingly put a brake on activity, the IMF said in its latest regional outlook on Friday. – Wall Street Journal

In the months leading up to a high-profile global climate summit in November, the government of Azerbaijan has been intensely preparing for its role as host, renovating building facades, training volunteers and retrofitting a stadium for tens of thousands of delegates. – New York Times

The United States said on Thursday it was concerned by Vietnam’s conviction and “harsh” sentencing of blogger Duong Van Thai, and deeply troubled by reports he was abducted by Vietnamese authorities in Thailand. – Reuters

New Zealand has reached a trade deal with the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, that Wellington said would open up major opportunities for Kiwi exporters in the Middle East. – Reuters

Vietnam has protested against China’s alleged detention of Vietnamese fishermen and fishing vessels in the contested Paracel Islands in the South China Sea, a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Thursday. – Reuters

Singapore’s government ramped up criticism of Lee Hsien Yang, who was recently granted asylum in the UK, accusing him of seeking to tarnish the city-state with an “international smear campaign.” – Bloomberg

Africa

The party that has governed Botswana since it became independent in 1966 received a stunning rebuke in national elections this week, losing its majority in Parliament for the first time, according to results announced on Friday morning. – New York Times

For years, Russia has promoted the Wagner mercenary group to authoritarian leaders in Africa as a force of fearsome warriors who could protect leaders’ grip on power and help their armies reclaim territories from armed groups. In return, Moscow has gained access to resource-rich countries, dislodged Western and U.N. troops and seeded influence across West and Central Africa to a degree not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union. – New York Times

Mauritius’s communications regulator said on Friday all internet service providers must suspend access to social media platforms until Nov. 11, a day after the upcoming general election, as the country reels from a wiretapping scandal. – Reuters

South Africa’s trade minister said his country is pursuing more robust trade and investment ties within the continent and with China – its biggest trade partner – as the global trade environment becomes increasingly fraught. – Reuters

Kenya’s high court on Thursday lifted orders barring the swearing-in of newly appointed deputy president Kithure Kindiki, whose predecessor has launched legal challenges over his removal from office by impeachment. – Reuters

TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) recently divested from its South African offshore blocks due to the difficulty in generating a return on gas at the sites, CEO Patrick Pouyanne told analysts on Thursday after the French company reported its third quarter results. – Reuters

At least 10 people were fatally shot by police and dozens of others were injured when authorities cracked down on unrest following Mozambique’s presidential election, two medical groups said, as the country braced Thursday for more protests against a vote criticized as fraudulent by opposition parties and questioned by international observers. – Associated Press

Nigeria’s state governors have asked for the withdrawal of legislation to amend the nation’s tax laws, dealing a blow to President Bola Tinubu’s bid to increase revenue to plug a widening spending gap. – Bloomberg

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed insisted his landlocked country is entitled to have access to the sea, amid growing tensions in the Horn of Africa region over how he plans to achieve that goal. – Bloomberg

Mesfin Tegenu writes: The Ethiopian people are quite resilient, which has driven one of the world’s great civilizations for more than 3,000 years — but it desperately needs partners. This crisis also presents an opportunity for the United States and allies to create a stronger bond around a shared interest in human rights, instead of a colonial outlook that encourages deadly tribalism. The ongoing slaughter of civilians in Gojjam and elsewhere is a plea for action, not more empty rhetoric. – The Hill

Michael Rubin writes: U.S. elections highlight divisions. Whoever takes office on January 20, 2025, however, will face a common China challenge. The United States can no longer afford to stand aloof and assume the liberal order will strengthen by itself. Faced with a challenge from China, the United States should consolidate those countries and territories inclined to democracy and clean government. The clock is ticking, however. While the Somaliland government has rebuffed Chinese bribery attempts, Beijing might tempt future politicians if incumbents cannot first cement the U.S. partnership. – The National Interest

North America

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump say they will look for more protections for America as they review the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the pact negotiated by the Trump administration that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement and has proved a boon for all three countries, economists say. – Wall Street Journal

Canada survived Donald Trump’s first term — but it wasn’t easy. He tore up the North American Free Trade Agreement, setting off a bruising renegotiation. He imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, prompting retaliation. He hurled insults at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him “very dishonest and weak.” He injected friction into a relationship known for its closeness. – Washington Post

In the Mexican state of Sinaloa, authorities have ordered residents not to don masks or costumes on Thursday night for Halloween to avoid being confused with criminals amid a worsening cycle of cartel violence. – Reuters

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday she will attend the G20 summit in November hosted by Brazil, marking her first international trip since taking office earlier this month. – Reuters

As Cuba grapples with blackouts and a deepening economic crisis, Mexico has sent nearly half a million barrels of crude oil and diesel in just a span of days, oil shipment data provided to The Associated Press showed Thursday. It comes at a time when shipments of Russian and Venezuelan oil that long kept the island afloat have largely petered out, leaving Mexico as one of Cuba’s few lifelines. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

Some of the world’s biggest tech companies showed this week how the tens of billions of dollars they have bet on the artificial intelligence boom are starting to pay off. They also warned bigger investments are coming. – Wall Street Journal

Top Chinese research institutions linked to the People’s Liberation Army have used Meta’s publicly available Llama model to develop an AI tool for potential military applications, according to academic papers and analysts. – Reuters

The White House is close to finalizing a second executive order on cybersecurity that covers a wide range of subjects for federal agencies to address, including artificial intelligence, secure software, cloud security, identity credentialing and post-quantum cryptography, according to sources familiar with work on the document. – Cyberscoop

A coalition of influential infrastructure trade groups and associations want to change key definitions around an incoming cyber reporting mandate, citing long-standing “concerns” around the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s engagement process and existing regulatory requirements. – Cyberscoop

The FBI and other agencies accused Iranian cyber actors of targeting the 2024 Summer Olympics, including an attempt to take over display boards to denounce Israel. – The Record