Fdd's overnight brief

Islamic State

The Islamic State militant group Thursday announced the successor to its former leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who U.S. officials said killed himself by detonating a suicide vest during a raid last week on his hiding place in northwest Syria. A recording released by the Islamic State’s media arm confirmed Baghdadi’s death and named his successor as Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qorashi. – Washington Post  

Islamic State confirmed on Thursday that its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a weekend raid by U.S. special forces in northwestern Syria, and vowed revenge against the United States. – Reuters 

A majority of Americans say President Trump should get credit for the raid that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, though the successful operation did not budge how people view Trump’s strength as a leader, according to a new Washington Post–ABC News poll. – The Hill

The killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi in Idlib, Syria, announced by U.S. President Trump on October 27, 2019, was met with approval and praise from some Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. However, most of the articles on this topic in these countries’ government and pro-regime press took a very different view, attacking the U.S. These articles accused the West, led by the U.S., of creating and cultivating the terror organizations, and claimed that Al-Baghdadi was a product of Western and other intelligence apparatuses and had served them until he was no longer needed – at which point they eliminated him. Some of the articles emphasized that President Trump had timed the operation for maximum political gain ahead of the U.S. presidential election. […]The following are translated excerpts from articles in the Saudi, Egyptian, Jordanian, and Syrian government dailies criticizing and accusing the U.S. following Al-Baghdadi’s killing. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Christian C. Sahner writes: Despite the violence, the death of a caliph has not necessarily spelled the end of a dynasty. This is the basic lesson regarding the future of the Islamic State, too. […]What is clear, however, is that he will preside over a shattered sliver of the group’s once mighty state, which means he is unlikely to cut the same inspiring figure as his predecessor. That could change, of course. While Iraq and Syria remain the Islamic State’s spiritual home, its branch in Afghanistan is thriving and may make for a good base in the future. – Washington Post  

Danielle Pletka writes: Perhaps the time has come for Western governments to demand collectively that the region’s leaders be answerable to their own people before we face another wave of refugees, the next iteration of the Islamic State and Baghdadi’s successor. – Washington Post 

Eli Lake writes: As U.S. intelligence analysts comb through electronic and paper documents seized last weekend from the lair of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, one question is foremost on their minds: How was the Islamic State leader able to find refuge in a Syrian province secured by the Turkish military and its proxy forces? […]It was Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, remember, that cultivated the source that was able to find Baghdadi. U.S. intelligence analysts may soon find out if the Turks knew where he was all along. – Bloomberg

Seth J. Frantzman writes: It is revealing that the U.S. cannot trust its allies with the sort of intelligence that led to the killing of the most high-profile terrorists of the past 20 years. With Baghdadi’s death, the U.S. must re-examine how to achieve its goals in Syria or Afghanistan if neighboring countries are not working with it — and might even be working against Washington.  Killing bin Laden and Baghdadi were tactical successes. But U.S. strategy requires a world where U.S. allies are truly allies. Perhaps the U.S. needs to better confront countries such as Turkey and Pakistan if they are not helpful in the war on terror. – The Hill

Hezbollah

Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc said on Thursday the resignation of Saad al-Hariri as prime minister would waste time available to enact reforms which are widely seen as necessary to steer Lebanon out of an economic crisis. – Reuters  

Lebanon’s Hezbollah targeted a drone over the country’s south with “appropriate weapons” forcing it to leave Lebanese airspace on Thursday, al-Manar TV reported, citing a statement from the Iran-backed movement. – Reuters 

Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz, who is on a diplomatic visit to Greece, met on Thursday with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, with his Greek counterpart Nikos Dendias, as well as with Greek President Prokopis Pavlopoulos. At the meetings, Katz requested that Greece condition its assistance to Lebanon on canceling the country’s precise missile project, and called on Greece to declare Hezbollah a terrorist organization. – Arutz Sheva

Turkey

Syrian refugees in this Turkish border town have been celebrating. Every day, news trickles of advances by Turkish-backed troops in carving out a safe zone in northeastern Syria and opening the way for the refugees to return home. – New York Times 

Turkish-Russian relations are entering a new stage as they prepare to start joint patrols of a strip 10 kilometers (six miles) deep inside northeastern Syria Friday following Ankara’s incursion into the region this month to expel US-backed Kurdish forces. – Al Monitor  

Turkey has handed over 18 men believed to be Syrian government soldiers who were seized in northeast Syria near the Turkish border earlier this week, the Turkish Defense Ministry said late on Thursday. – Reuters  

Middle East & North Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is withholding $105 million in security aid for Lebanon, two U.S. officials said on Thursday, two days after the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri. – Reuters  

Lebanese President Michel Aoun said Thursday he supported the creation of a government of experts to lead the country out of crisis and pledged to dedicate the rest of his term to ending a sectarian power-sharing system he called a “destructive disease.” – Bloomberg 

Iraq’s president said Thursday that Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi had agreed to resign once a successor is found and vowed to move toward new elections after days of violent protests between anti-government demonstrators and security forces left at least 200 people dead. – Bloomberg

Qatar moved a step closer to holding legislative elections Wednesday after delaying them repeatedly for over a decade. The country’s ruler, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, issued a decision establishing a committee to prepare for elections to a key legislative body, according to a tweet from state-run Qatar News Agency. – Bloomberg

Yemen’s Houthi movement said on Friday its air defenses downed a U.S.-made ScanEagle drone near the Saudi border, the group’s military spokesman said. – Reuters 

Yemen’s civil war has killed more than 100,000 people since 2015, a database project that tracks violence said Thursday. – Associated Press 

Fareed Zakaria writes: So we see an emerging post-American Middle East, with various regional powers jockeying for influence, mainly Saudi Arabia and Iran, along with others such as Turkey and Israel, pushing their own interests. These are uncharted waters in a time of great upheaval — Syria has produced more than 5 million refugees , and Yemen faces the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The Islamic State has been decapitated and is scattered for now, but the demons that have fueled such terror — stagnation, repression, despair — continue to haunt today’s Arab world. – Washington Post

China

Chinese President Xi Jinping emerged from a Communist Party conclave with a resolute endorsement of his leadership, despite a slowing economy, a bruising trade war with the U.S. and unrest in Hong Kong. The party’s governing Central Committee also signaled a firmer stance on Hong Kong, calling for stronger safeguards for China’s national security in the city—a formulation that some experts say foreshadows new legal powers to squelch dissent against Beijing’s authority. – Wall Street Journal 

Chinese cellphone carriers will begin offering super-fast, next-generation 5G service on a commercial basis Friday, a development that the ruling Communist Party says will unleash a technological revolution. With this milestone and ambitious usage targets, Chinese authorities are sending a message to the United States that they will not allow the country’s industrial development — especially that of tech titan Huawei — to be stymied. – Washington Post   

Chinese companies like Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. threaten U.S. national security because the use of their equipment in networks gives the Chinese government an advantage it can use for espionage, cyberattacks and intellectual property theft, according to senior officials and lawmakers. – Bloomberg

Josh Rogin writes: The U.S. government has imposed visa bans and blacklisted 28 Chinese entities that are complicit in the human rights violations in Xinjiang. But stronger sanctions have been sitting on the shelf for several months. The White House seems to be falling for Beijing’s threat to disrupt trade talks if Washington confronts them on human rights. The truth is, Beijing’s threat works only if we back off. […]Like James, many Americans will decide they don’t care or don’t want to pay the price for daring to speak out about Chinese government repression. But no one can say they didn’t know the truth; all you have to do is “google Uyghurs.” – Washington Post

Asia

Weeks after face coverings at demonstrations were banned in this protest-torn city, traditionally busy Halloween celebrations were marked by clashes between riot police and demonstrators wearing masks of Guy Fawkes and Chinese President Xi Jinping. – Wall Street Journal 

China will roll out new steps to “safeguard national security” in Hong Kong after months of antigovernment protests that have destabilized the semiautonomous city, the Chinese Communist Party leadership announced on Thursday. – New York Times  

China vowed Friday to prevent foreign powers interfering in Hong Kong’s affairs and carrying out acts of “separatism, subversion, infiltration and sabotage.” – Associated Press

China signaled a new push to institute “patriotic” education in Hong Kong, potentially reviving a third-rail initiative shelved after mass student demonstrations seven years ago. – Bloomberg

President Donald Trump plans to skip the 18-nation East Asia Summit for the third straight year, and this time he’s not even sending Vice President Mike Pence or Secretary of State Michael Pompeo to replace him. Instead the U.S. will have its lowest level representation at the meeting since Barack Obama formally joined the group in 2011, with new national security adviser Robert O’Brien leading the delegation to Bangkok. – Bloomberg 

A Hong Kong court has temporarily banned publishing anything online that could encourage violence, Apple Daily has reported. – Bloomberg 

Southeast Asian leaders are making last-minute efforts with wealthier neighbors led by China to conclude negotiations on one of the world’s largest free-trade accords and will praise progress in talks on a nonaggression pact in disputed waters when they meet for a summit in Thailand. But intractable differences, often hidden behind handshakes and ceremonial photo-ops, have stymied those efforts by the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. – Associated Press

Editorial: This supports Mr. Wong’s claim that he was “targeted by the central government,” and it is further proof that the Chinese Communist Party has no intention of respecting Hong Kong’s legal autonomy. […]Meanwhile, on Thursday, economic data showed Hong Kong has officially slipped into a recession. Beijing’s latest assault on the rule of law in Hong Kong will deepen the crisis. – Wall Street Journal

Europe

The International Monetary Fund has put off a bailout for Ukraine because it is worried the country’s president won’t recoup billions of dollars allegedly looted from banks—including one once controlled by a close supporter—according to people familiar with the negotiations. – Wall Street Journal  

The death of the Islamic State leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was met this week with no outpouring of joy or even relief in France, even though this is the European country that suffered most from his depredations. The reason is simple: the Islamic State’s crimes, and the fear they instilled in the national psyche, are so ingrained in France that the daily fabric of life has been inexorably altered. – New York Times  

Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic broke the law by refusing to take in asylum seekers coming to the European Union during the chaotic summer of 2015, an advisory body to the bloc’s highest court said on Thursday. – Reuters  

Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Thursday issued a joint statement committing to uphold minority rights in Ukraine, a step welcomed by the Hungarian authorities who had threatened to block Kiev’s NATO membership over the issue. – Reuters  

A Brussels court has ordered Belgium to repatriate from Syria within 75 days a woman whose husband fought for Islamic State and her children. – Reuters 

The mayor of the southern French city of Nice has strongly condemned rising antisemitism in his country following an incident at a Jewish school in which a man yelling antisemitic epithets tried to break into the building. – Algemeiner   

Jasmin Mujanović and Molly Montgomery write: These proposals aim to reassert U.S. leadership in a region hungry for alternatives and do so by emphasizing practical, quality-of-life concerns with a strategic aim: countering growing Russian and Chinese designs on the Western Balkans. – Foreign Policy

The Americas

Desperate Mexican soldiers implored the captured son of legendary drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán to call his brother and get him to stop the attacks by dozens of cartel gunmen on security forces in their bid to rescue him. – Wall Street Journal  

The U.S. State Department warned on Thursday that it had seen indications of Russian “influence” on recent unrest in Chile, where two weeks of protests and riots have rocked the administration of President Sebastian Pinera. – Reuters 

Max Fisher writes: An unspoken rule in Latin America, like in many transitional democracies, is that if protests demanding the leader’s removal reach a certain threshold and have a certain degree of institutional support, then he or she will step down. “Presidents are reaching the conclusion that if society is polarized and if there’s disagreement about which side should prevail, then if they have the military, they will survive.” – New York Times

Defense

The U.S. Army has selected General Dynamics Land Systems’ Multi-Utility Tactical Transport, or MUTT, for its Squad Multipurpose Equipment Transport unmanned ground system program of record. The initial contract for the eight-wheel drive robotic vehicle totals $162.4 million and includes support hardware, user training and technical support. The contract will wrap up at the end of October 2024, according to an Oct. 30 Defense Department announcement. – Defense News

The Missile Defense Agency has selected four companies to develop prototype sensors capable of detecting and tracking hypersonic weapons from space, the agency announced Oct. 29. The four companies selected are Northrop Grumman, Leidos, Harris Corporation and Raytheon. Each of the companies was awarded a $20 million contract through the Space Enterprise Consortium, an other transaction authority that fosters rapid prototyping. The agency received 12 proposals in total. – C4ISRNET

The Navy is gaining enough experience with unmanned vehicles on and below the water’s surface that it’s becoming easier to kick off new programs, as each can build on previous program’s lessons learned, service officials said last week. – USNI News