Fdd's overnight brief

May 8, 2025

In The News

Israel

The Trump administration is pressing the United Nations, aid organizations and U.S. allies to participate in a new Israeli plan to resume distribution of limited amounts of humanitarian assistance in Gaza under conditions that Israel will strictly control, according to aid officials and other people familiar with internal discussions. – Washington Post

The United States and Israel have discussed the possibility of Washington leading a temporary post-war administration of Gaza, according to five people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

At least 48 people were killed on Wednesday in Israeli airstrikes on a school that housed families displaced by the conflict and which was located close to a crowded market and restaurant in Gaza City, local health authorities said. – Reuters

Three Israeli hostages in Gaza previously thought to be living may be dead, leaving 21 definitely believed to be alive, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday, confirming comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

The U.S.-based World Central Kitchen charity has halted work in the Gaza Strip, saying on Wednesday it had run out of supplies and been prevented by Israel from bringing in aid. – Reuters

European leaders and aid groups have criticised Israeli plans to take over distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza and use private companies to get food to families after two months in which the military has prevented supplies entering the Strip. – Reuters

US envoy Steve Witkoff briefed members of the UN Security Council on Wednesday about various topics, including Gaza, participants in the closed-door talks said. – Agence France Presse

A senior American official delivered unusually sharp criticism of Israel’s conduct in hostage negotiations and warned that the United States is prepared to finalize a regional agreement with Saudi Arabia, even without Israeli participation, N12 reported on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

Amit Segal writes: But in exchange for the resumption of shipping on an important global trade route, Mr. Trump handed the Houthis salvation. If Mr. Trump follows this model, a nuclear deal with Iran would likely end the same way: furthering a fleeting American interest while ignoring Israel’s existential concerns and the panic of Sunni states in the Middle East. […]It isn’t too late for Mr. Trump to change course. The Iranians are on their knees. He shouldn’t offer them a hand in exchange for a dubious short-term gain that endangers the entire Middle East. – Wall Street Journal

Iran

President Trump said Wednesday that he hasn’t decided whether Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium under a new nuclear deal, signaling that the White House might be flexible on a central issue in the talks. – Wall Street Journal

Supporters of two French citizens held in Iran for three years staged rallies on Wednesday to demand their release as France’s foreign ministry said it would soon file a legal complaint against Tehran at the International Court of Justice. – Reuters

Iran welcomes the end of U.S. attacks on Yemen, its foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced Washington would stop bombing the Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthi militia. – Reuters

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi called for restraint between India and Pakistan upon landing in New Delhi on Thursday, state media reported, a day after India targeted what it says are “terrorist camps” in Pakistan in retaliation for a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir last month. – Reuters

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he will make a decision about how the U.S. government will refer to the body of water now commonly known as the Persian Gulf when he visits Arab states next week. – Associated Press

The Israeli Embassy in London was the target of a terror plot by five Iranian nationals who were arrested by British police last weekend, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

US Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday that talks on Iran’s nuclear program are heading in the right direction, stating that Tehran can have civil nuclear power but not enrichment that can lead to atomic weapons. – Agence France Presse

What Israel did to Hezbollah in Beirut, it will do to the Iranian regime in Tehran, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on Thursday morning. – Jerusalem Post

US President Donald Trump indicated Wednesday that he is seeking to “blow up” Iran’s nuclear centrifuges through an agreement with Tehran, but is also prepared to blow them up in an attack if necessary. – Times of Israel 

Hamdi Malik writes: There are growing signs that elements within the very core of the Iranian regime favor a version of the Islamic Republic that preserves its outer shell while shedding its most radical ideological foundations. Although Khamenei has traditionally aligned with hardliners, recent developments suggest that more pragmatic voices may now have his ear, promoting normalization with neighbors and the international community as essential to regime survival. – Washington Institute

Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Kelly Campa, Carolyn Moorman, Ben Schmida, Avery Borens, Andie Parry, and Brian Carter write: Persistent energy shortages have fueled public frustration and strained the Iranian economy, which may pose a growing threat to regime stability. Power outages have increased in Iran in recent days due to the energy crisis in Iran. Traders at the Tehran Province iron market went on strike on May 5, alongside other small protests across Iran in recent days over the repeated power outages. – Institute for the Study of War

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine and Russia stepped up strikes ahead of Moscow’s World War II commemorations on Friday, with Russia closing more than a dozen airports and canceling scores of flights amid a wave of drone attacks. – Wall Street Journal

When Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Russian President Vladimir Putin for a pomp-filled summit two years ago, he had a special message: Together, he and Putin were driving “changes the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years.” – Washington Post 

Ukraine’s air force said in a post on its Telegram social media account that Russian aircraft had launched guided bombs on the Sumy region of northern Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday morning. The air force said the bombs were launched nearly three hours after a three-day ceasefire declared by Russian President Vladimir Putin came into force. – Reuters

France and Germany are in close contact in their unwavering support for Ukraine and will continue to work towards a 30-day ceasefire, French president Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday, speaking alongside new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the Elysee palace. – Reuters

Syria

New Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has quietly begun an effort to win American support to rebuild his war-torn country—rounding up militants, reaching out through intermediaries to Israel, and signaling his willingness to do deals that let U.S. oil-and-gas companies do business in the country. – Wall Street Journal

President Ahmed al-Shara of Syria said on Wednesday that Syria had held indirect talks with Israel to contain escalating tensions, days after Israeli jets struck the capital, Damascus, amid deepening sectarian violence inside the country. – New York Times

The United States has greenlighted a Qatari initiative to bankroll Syria’s public sector, three sources said, offering a financial lifeline to the new Syrian government as it seeks to rebuild a state shattered by conflict. – Reuters

France’s president said on Wednesday he would urge the EU to end sanctions on Syria when they come up for renewal in June and lobby the U.S. to follow suit as well as keep its troops there to ensure Syria’s stability. – Reuters

The red carpet was rolled at Paris Wednesday for a former jihadist terrorist, Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is seeking world recognition as a statesman. His envoys are even secretly talking to Israeli counterparts, but does the Damascus strongman have a stronghold over the country? – New York Sun

Lebanon

During a meeting in Baghdad on Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani reaffirmed Iraq’s support for Lebanon as it faces multiple political and security challenges, including ongoing conflict with Israel. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF carried out strikes in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah-affiliated al-Manar claimed on Thursday. The 14 strikes were conducted in the Nabatieh area, two Lebanese security sources told Reuters. – Jerusalem Post

Sarit Zehavi writes: The increase of efforts by the Lebanese authorities to degrade Hezbollah will inevitably up the chances of a Lebanese civil war – one of the key reasons why such efforts were not made before the current war. However, the alternative is worse: A reality in which Hezbollah emerges stronger from the current conflict, as has occurred in the past. There is now an excellent opportunity to bring change to Lebanon. It is in the hands of the Lebanese, and they must not miss it. – Jerusalem Post

Yemen

Shippers aren’t yet confident enough to return to routes through the Red Sea, despite a tentative cease-fire deal between the U.S. and Yemen’s Houthi militia. – Wall Street Journal

A ceasefire deal between Yemen’s Houthis and the U.S. does not include sparing Israel, the group said on Wednesday, suggesting its shipping attacks that have disrupted global trade and challenged world powers will not come to a complete halt. – Reuters

Israel’s defence minister on Thursday warned Yemen’s Houthis will suffer heavy blows if they continue to fire at Israel and that its defence forces are prepared for any mission. – Reuters

A nearly two-month-long U.S. bombing campaign in Yemen dealt heavy damage to the Iran-aligned Houthis but U.S. officials and experts caution that the group is expected to remain a vexing adversary despite a ceasefire announced on Tuesday by Washington. – Reuters

Gulf States

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he will soon have an announcement on whether the U.S. will ease microchip export restrictions to some Gulf countries. “We might be doing that, yeah,” Trump said. “And it will be announced soon.” – Reuters

The United Arab Emirates has set up a backchannel for talks between Israel and Syria, three people familiar with the matter said, as Syria’s new rulers seek regional help to manage an increasingly hostile relationship with their southern neighbour. – Reuters

Javier Blas writes: So the most Kazakhstan is likely to do is to pay lip service to the OPEC+ targets. Expect more platitudes from Astana, reiterating in public its disposition to cooperate with the cartel while privately doing the opposite by pumping way more than its quota. For the Saudis, this time may truly turn out differently. – Bloomberg

Alex Winston writes: Saudi Arabia has moved closer to Iran, the war in Gaza – and, by extension, Israel’s existential battle with Iran – continues, and US influence in the region is less certain. The question now is whether Saudi Arabia will take the next step, or whether that moment has passed. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Libya’s two rival governments on Wednesday said they had not agreed to accept migrants from the U.S., disrupting Trump administration plans to fly deportees there. – Wall Street Journal

A federal judge warned the Trump administration Wednesday that it cannot deport immigrants to Libya, Saudi Arabia and any other country where they are not citizens without due process, saying such a move would violate standing court orders intended to shield people from being expelled to countries where they could be harmed or killed. – Washington Post

Greece and Egypt signed a “strategic partnership” deal on Wednesday as they seek to step up political coordination to help safeguard stability in the Eastern Mediterranean amid the ongoing war in Gaza. – Reuters

Turkey and the United Kingdom agreed to hold the first round of negotiations to modernize and expand the scope of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between them by end-July, Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Burcu Ozcelik writes: Since the outbreak of war in Gaza in October 2023, King Abdullah II of Jordan has resisted domestic pressure to annul his country’s 30-year-old peace treaty with Israel. Instead, Jordan has sought to acknowledge public outrage over Israel’s killing of Palestinians while preserving its security cooperation with its neighbor. Now, Jordan faces yet another challenge. – Foreign Policy

Korean Peninsula

North Korea on Thursday fired various types of short-range ballistic missiles into its eastern sea, South Korea’s military said, adding to a run in military displays that raised animosities in the region. South Korean military officials were analyzing whether the tests were linked to the North’s weapons exports to Russia during its war in Ukraine. – Associated Press

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has called for his munitions industry to boost the production of artillery shells, state media said Wednesday, as the country continues to supply arms and troops to support Russia’s war on Ukraine. – Associated Press

South Korea’s right-wing presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo accused his party on Thursday of trying to force him out and threatened to take legal action just weeks ahead of a snap election slated for June 3. – Reuters

China

Beijing’s outreach to Washington over fentanyl created an opening for trade talks between the two nations, according to people in both capitals who are familiar with the matter, paving the way for a bilateral meeting in Switzerland this weekend. – Wall Street Journal

The conclave to choose the next pope is underway in Rome, and Beijing already hopes to leadeth him into political temptation. China is maneuvering during the interregnum between popes to install two new bishops, setting the next pontiff up for an early test of how much he’s willing to render unto an authoritarian Caesar. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump said he will raise the case of ex-media mogul Jimmy Lai as part of US trade talks with China, a move likely to antagonize Beijing just days before the two sides meet. – Bloomberg

South Asia

India and Pakistan faced off militarily after a militant attack on tourists that New Delhi blamed on Islamabad, but the nuclear-armed neighbors appeared to be calibrating their responses to avoid full-blown conflict after decades of relative peace. – Wall Street Journal

Pakistan’s defense minister said on Wednesday that he would welcome further U.S. efforts to help defuse his country’s crisis with India and praised President Trump for calling for a quick end to the conflict. – New York Times

A blast was heard in Pakistan’s Lahore city on Thursday, broadcaster Geo TV and a Reuters witness said, a day after Indian strikes on multiple targets in the country and fears of a larger military conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours. – Reuters

Pakistan said Chinese fighter jets were used to respond to military strikes by India and that it has kept Beijing fully informed of its action as tensions in the disputed Kashmir region escalate. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Once both sides have stepped back from the brink, diplomacy will need to continue. India could reinstate the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan it had suspended after the Pahalgam attack, perhaps in exchange for visible efforts by Pakistan to rein in the terrorist networks operating within its borders. Most of all, Delhi and Islamabad should work to reestablish diplomatic and military back channels. Nuclear brinkmanship is hair-raising in any context; it’s even worse when the two sides are not communicating. – Washington Post

Sadanand Dhume writes: Wednesday’s strikes send a message to Pakistan that it can no longer expect to target Indians with impunity and that it will be held responsible for groups that shelter on its soil. Even if the U.S. doesn’t play an active part in the conflict, it should wish India well. A less dangerous Pakistan would be a gift to the world. – Wall Street Journal

Karishma Vaswani writes: Diplomatic efforts must match the urgency of the moment. Miscalculation now could open a third front when the world is already managing war in Ukraine and conflict in Israel and Gaza. It can ill afford another. – Bloomberg

Mihir Sharma writes: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised that India would be “one of the first” agreements that the US would sign. If so, perhaps New Delhi’s concessions to Britain are a glimpse of what it will offer Trump. And perhaps the need to hand such concessions to the US made it easier to give them to Britain. It would be ironic if tariff-loving Trump turns out to be the person who pushes India, Asia and the rest of the world to overcome their hesitations about trade. – Bloomberg

Asia

The Philippines and China gave conflicting versions on Thursday of a maritime confrontation around a contested shoal in the South China Sea, the latest incident in a longstanding dispute between the neighbours. – Reuters

Chinese Premier Li Qiang will visit Malaysia in late May for a summit with a newly established super-group of Southeast Asian and Arab nations which Beijing hopes to rally against Washington’s tariffs, two sources told Reuters. – Reuters

A United States submarine, USS Kentucky, which is capable of firing nuclear missiles, carried out an armed air escort exercise with helicopters in the Pacific Ocean last month. – Newsweek

Special operations forces from the U.S. Navy, Army and Air Force are operating throughout the Philippines and the South China Sea for Balikatan 2025. – USNI News

Europe

But for now, at least, this pressure from Washington has had an opposite effect on the 56,600 Greenlanders, most of whom are indigenous Inuit people who jealously guard their culture. In recent weeks, Greenland and Denmark have moved closer together as officials in Nuuk and Copenhagen sought to reinvigorate their relationship and to look with fresh eyes at outstanding problems. – Wall Street Journal

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said on Wednesday he would call in the acting U.S. ambassador to Denmark for talks after the Wall Street Journal reported Washington had ordered U.S. intelligence agencies to step up spying on Greenland. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to promise on Thursday that his government will deliver a “defence dividend” for voters, framing an increase in military spending forced by a U.S. shift away from underwriting Europe’s security as an economic opportunity. – Reuters

Slovakia and Hungary on Wednesday condemned European Commission plans to phase out Russian gas and other energy imports, deepening a rift with Brussels over relations with Moscow. – Reuters

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk pushed back against plans by Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz to tighten border controls with its European Union neighbors, saying the focus should rather be on reinforcing the bloc’s outside frontier. – Bloomberg

Africa

The United Arab Emirates’ foreign ministry said on Wednesday it did not recognise a decision by Sudan’s army-affiliated defence council to sever ties with the Gulf country. – Reuters

Mali has suspended political activities across the country ahead of a planned protest against the military junta that has ruled since coups in 2020 and 2021, authorities said on Wednesday. – Reuters

About 10 soldiers were killed and seven injured in an attack in Niger’s Dosso region this week, authorities said in a statement broadcast on state radio, while a security source told Reuters the death toll could be higher. – Reuters

The Americas

The Brazilian government rejected a request by the U.S. State Department to designate two major criminal gangs that officials believe to have members in the United States as terrorist organizations, Mario Sarrubo, Brazil’s national secretary of public security, told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Wednesday signed a strategic partnership agreement in a ceremony shown on state TV. The two leaders also discussed energy and oil during their talks in Moscow, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported. – Reuters

Venezuela’s interior minister on Wednesday said the exit of Venezuelan opposition members from Argentina’s diplomatic residence in Caracas was negotiated, after the opposition said the operation took the government by surprise. – Reuters

United States

President Trump is expected to announce on Thursday that the United States will strike a trade agreement with Britain, according to three people familiar with the plans. – New York Times

Police arrested dozens of Columbia University students who seized part of the school’s main library on Wednesday in one of the biggest pro-Palestinian demonstrations on campus since last year’s wave of protests against Israel’s war in Gaza. – Reuters

The Trump administration plans to rescind some Biden-era AI chip curbs as part of a broader effort to revise global semiconductor trade restrictions that have drawn strong opposition from major tech companies and foreign governments. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

Five months after education software vendor PowerSchool paid an unnamed threat actor a ransom in exchange for the deletion of sensitive stolen data, some of the company’s customers are now receiving extortion demands. – CyberScoop

China is “well on its way to becoming a cyber superpower” a senior British government minister warned on Wednesday, adding that it now simply wasn’t feasible to decouple from Beijing given the country’s role in global supply chains. – The Record

Russian authorities have imposed mobile internet restrictions in Moscow and surrounding regions ahead of Victory Day celebrations, citing security concerns. – The Record

Defense

Special operators are looking to industry for a suite of upgrades to their fixed-wing aircraft, such as radio frequency countermeasures, new methods for aerial refueling and improved networking. – Defense News

The US Navy (USN) and US Army failed to “meet service-level standards for equipment and unit readiness” and to “organise, train, and equip their forces to meet common joint standards, known as joint mission essential tasks” in the services’ attempt to execute Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore (JLOTS) operations in Gaza, according to the Pentagon Inspector General (IG). – Janes

Todd Young writes: Reviving American shipbuilding will take time and come at a cost — but the cost of failing to act is even greater. With his executive order, President Trump channeled Teddy Roosevelt and laid out an ambitious maritime agenda. Now it’s up to Congress to make his vision a reality and christen a new commercial fleet that will reclaim American maritime supremacy. It’s time to make American ships again. – New York Post