Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel’s military on Monday carried out airstrikes against targets in Yemen, a day after the Houthi rebel group launched a ballistic missile that struck near Israel’s main airport. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday described “intensified” operations in Gaza, including a massive relocation of the Palestinian population and indefinite Israeli military “control” of large swaths of the enclave, setting a new direction in strategy and raising the question of whether Israel is inching toward the long-term reoccupation of the enclave. – Washington Post

An Israeli parliamentary committee on Monday began debate on a law that would impose an 80% tax on non-government organisations that receive the majority of their funding from foreign entities in a bid to reduce foreign influence on the state. – Reuters

Cyprus and neighboring Israel are seeking to swiftly establish an electricity linkup via an undersea cable that would eliminate their respective energy isolation, an official said Monday. – Associated Press

US President Donald Trump said Monday that his administration will help get food to “starving” Gazans amid a two-month-and-counting Israeli aid blockade, but added that Hamas has made it “impossible” by diverting humanitarian assistance for its fighters. – Agence France-Presse

Sheikh Muafak Tarif, the spiritual leader of the Druze community in Israel, warned on Monday that the massacre of Druze civilians in southern Syria should serve as a warning to Israel. – Jerusalem Post

Hundreds of people gathered in Jerusalem on Monday to protest the government’s decision to continue the war in Gaza and called for the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas. – Jerusalem Post

US President Donald Trump’s senior advisor and Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said at the main reception marking Israel’s 77th Independence Day at the Israeli Embassy in Washington DC on Tuesday, “very soon, we expect to hear many announcements related to the expansion of the Abraham Accords.” – Jerusalem Post

A number of foreign airlines extended their cancellations of flights to Tel Aviv on Monday, a day after a Houthi missile struck near Ben Gurion Airport, and as the Yemen-based terror group threatened to “blockade” Israel’s main transit hub. – Times of Israel

Both of the coalition’s ultra-Orthodox parties will boycott votes on coalition legislation on Wednesday, in protest of the government’s failure to pass a law exempting yeshiva students from military service. – Times of Israel

The percentage of women and children killed in Gaza during the course of Israel’s war against Hamas following the October 7 atrocities is far lower than claimed by the terror group’s media propaganda agency, according to a new study. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Israeli military officials believe now is the time to “launch the concluding moves” of the war, explained Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. No one with any compassion wants the war in Gaza to drag on, but Israel can’t end by accepting an eternal threat of periodic Oct. 7-style massacres. Hamas still needs to be eliminated and Gaza secured; with the full support of the US president, Israel now has a chance to do that. It’s time to get it done. – New York Post

Neville Teller writes: “The question of who will govern Gaza,” it began, “has plagued efforts to end Israel’s nine-month war to destroy Hamas… Some negotiators are increasingly drawn to Mohammed Dahlan as a temporary solution to a dilemma facing postwar Gaza.” Dahlan’s name is out there as a potential future Palestinian leader, one way or another. He no doubt has in mind the ancient Greek saying: “There’s many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.” – Jerusalem Post

David Makovsky and Simone Saidmehr write: This balancing act is especially important during Syria’s extraordinary period of flux. The new regime has not yet cemented its control over the country, and its political positions seem malleable. At this stunning moment in history—after the weakening of their mutual enemy Iran—Israel and Turkey should be striving to craft a mutually beneficial new regional order, not coming to blows. – Foreign Affairs

Russia and Ukraine

The writer Isaac Babel is memorialized in the act of creative thinking, eyes on the horizon and pen resting on a stack of paper, in a bronze statue in downtown Odesa — his home city on Ukraine’s Black Sea shore. – New York Times

The Kremlin said on Monday that it was following with great concern the tense atmosphere at the India-Pakistan border in Kashmir, where suspected militants killed at least 26 people in attack last week. – Reuters

Russian air defence units destroyed a swarm of Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow in a second night attack in a row, prompting the closure of all airports in the capital for several hours, officials said early on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Czech Republic will expand training for Ukrainian pilots and maintain a programme to deliver artillery ammunition to Ukraine, Prime Minister Petr Fiala said on Monday, after hosting President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Monday that Germany’s decision to classify the Alternative for Germany party as an “extremist” entity is a restrictive measure against European non-mainstream forces. – Reuters

The Kremlin, asked on Monday about a possible meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia, said that a meeting was necessary but that Putin had no trips to the Middle East planned for mid-May. – Reuters

Ukrainian forces attacked a power substation in Russia’s western Kursk region, the regional governor said early on Tuesday after Russian war bloggers reported a new Ukrainian land-based incursion into the area backed by armoured vehicles. – Reuters

Steven Pifer writes: On Apr. 27, Trump told the press, “I want him [Putin] to stop shooting, sit down and make a deal,” but if Russian attacks continued, “I have a lot of things that I can do.” Trump indeed has many things he could do to get the Russians to take a more serious approach to end the war. If he wants to get Putin’s attention, he should start doing them. – The Hill

Ilan I. Berman writes: Ukraine’s defenders, though, already are serious. And while it undoubtedly needs continued support from the West to weather Russia’s military aggression, Kyiv is already transforming the modern battlefield. Or, as the Snake Island Institute put it, “Ukraine is reshaping the defense innovation cycle. Those who act with us will help build the future of deterrence, security, and strategic advantage.” – Newsweek

Middle East & North Africa

The United Nations’ top court on Monday dismissed a case accusing the United Arab Emirates of fueling genocide in Sudan by supporting paramilitary forces in the country’s ongoing civil war. The court said it “manifestly lacks jurisdiction.” – New York Times

The Oman Investment Authority signed a preliminary agreement with Algeria’s Finance Ministry to establish an investment fund worth 115 million Omani riyals ($298.79 million). The fund announced by the sultanate’s sovereign wealth fund will focus on mining, food security and pharmaceutical industries, according to a statement by the OIA. – Reuters

Faezeh Alavi writes: In the end, the rise of isolationism risks pushing Arab nations toward China, losing the opportunity of strengthening an alliance with Arab Countries, and emboldening the Islamic regime in Iran to advance its plans. Yet, the Trump administration stands at a pivotal moment to reverse this course and act in a way that Beijing and Tehran cannot anticipate. As President Trump prepares to visit the Middle East, the region watches to see how the ambiguity unfolds. – Jerusalem Post

Brandon J. Weichert writes: A top-to-bottom, fundamental rethink of U.S. and Israeli force structure, doctrine, and grand strategy is required before any decision is made to escalate things further with Iran and its proxies. Otherwise, the costs of attacking Iran and its proxies, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu envisages, will be catastrophic for both Israeli and American forces.  – The National Interest

China

An industrial plan China rolled out a decade ago that was criticized by the U.S. as protectionist has been highly successful in narrowing China’s technological gap with the West, a new study finds. – Wall Street Journal

Liu Miao has sold clothing on Amazon to wholesale buyers in the United States for the past five years. That trade has come to an abrupt stop. – New York Times

The Philippines has deployed a coast guard vessel and an aircraft to challenge and escort a Chinese research ship it said was conducting illegal marine scientific research activities within the country’s exclusive economic zone. – Reuters

Hong Kong’s freight forwarding industry is reeling from the U.S.-China trade war with 41% of container capacity from the city to North America’s west coast cancelled for the week starting May 12, the South China Morning Post reported. – Reuters

Fatima Abo Alasrar writes: Meanwhile, while American policymakers debate whether the Houthis are even worth worrying about, Beijing is busy carving safe lanes for its ships and weaponizing instability to tilt global trade in its favor. And as Chinese netizens jubilantly salute the Houthis online, Beijing’s calculated gambit in the Red Sea will continue to yield dividends that no trade negotiation could ever deliver. – Atlantic Council

Asia

Australia and New Zealand vowed to advocate for their film industries on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a plan to impose 100% tariffs on foreign-made movies. – Reuters

Taiwan’s foreign minister will visit the U.S. state of Texas to speak at a forum on artificial intelligence (AI) and promote business and trade ties, his office said on Tuesday, as Taipei seeks to bolster investment and see off the threat of tariffs. – Reuters

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese congratulated each other on election wins attributed to voters’ concern about the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump, Carney’s office said on Monday. – Reuters

Vietnam faces more challenges than opportunities because of U.S. tariffs but will still aim to meet its target of at least 8% growth this year, the Prime Minister said on Monday, ahead of the start of trade talks with Washington later this week. – Reuters

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Monday he had a “warm conversation” with U.S. President Donald Trump on tariffs and the AUKUS defence pact after his centre-left Labor party decisively beat the conservatives in a weekend election. – Reuters

A Cambodian court on Monday convicted a prominent opposition politician of incitement and sentenced him to four years in prison, in the latest legal move to stifle criticism of the government of Prime Minister Hun Manet. – Associated Press

Just as Japan’s top trade negotiator traveled to Washington for another round of tariff talks last week, a bipartisan delegation bearing the name of “Japan-China Friendship” wrapped up a visit to Beijing. – Associated Press

David Fickling writes: Such vast public investments aren’t going to be made so long as advocacy is dominated by those like Dutton who use it as a stalking horse to advance fossil-fuel interests. Even his own allies are now reportedly looking to dump the policy as toxic. Catastrophic failure at the ballot box may finally have done the industry a real favor, by giving nuclear a last chance to step out of the shadow of coal. – Bloomberg

Salil Tripathi writes: Wong skillfully convinced outwardly oriented Singaporeans who realize the significance of an open economy that tackling tariffs and negotiating U.S.-China tensions are too important to be left in the hands of untried politicians. Thinking pragmatically, listening to their minds and not their hearts, they voted for the PAP. – Foreign Policy

Africa

Multiple explosions and fires were seen and heard in Sudan’s capital Port Sudan early on Tuesday, a witness said, though the exact locations and causes were unclear, as a civil war rocks the previously quiet city for the third day. – Reuters

Congo and Rwanda have submitted a draft peace proposal as part of a process meant to end fighting in eastern Congo and attract billions of dollars of Western investment, U.S. President Donald Trump’s senior adviser for Africa said on Monday. – Reuters

At least 19 people were killed in a suspected bandit ambush and livestock rustling operation in Bauchi state, northeast Nigeria, the police and residents said on Monday. – Reuters

A missing Ugandan opposition activist whom the president’s son said he was holding in his basement was brought to court limping on Monday, charged with robbery and remanded to prison, opposition leader Bobi Wine and his lawyer said. – Reuters

Togo leader Faure Gnassingbe has been given the powerful new role of President of the Council of Ministers which has no fixed term limit, parliament said – a move the opposition called a constitutional coup that could extend his rule for life. – Reuters

Hundreds of activists defied threats from Mali ’s military government and demonstrated over the weekend in the first pro-democracy rally since soldiers took power by force almost four years ago. – Associated Press

Gabon’s new leader Brice Oligui Nguema has named two vice presidents to help steer affairs in the OPEC member nation, two days after he was sworn into office. – Bloomberg

South Sudan’s government plans to dismiss First Vice President Riek Machar and haul him before a court if an ongoing investigation finds him complicit in renewed violence in the country, The East African reported, citing Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth. – Bloomberg

Walter Russell Mead writes: The NGO-industrial complex that feasted on American development aid has fallen prey in too many cases to fashionable wokeism and is often therefore no longer a useful tool of state policy. Giving foreign aid to failing states served the U.S. reasonably well during the Cold War. We will need to do better in the times that are coming. – Wall Street Journal

United States

The governors of six U.S. states said on Monday they have invited Canadian provincial leaders to discuss the impact of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump while being critical of the measures taken by the U.S. president. – Reuters

A federal appeals court rejected on Monday a request by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to allow it to revoke the temporary legal status of hundreds of thousands of Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans living in the United States. – Reuters

The U.S. Department of Education informed Harvard University on Monday that it was freezing billions of dollars in research grants and other aid until the elite university concedes to a number of demands from the Trump administration, a senior department official said. – Reuters

Mark Temnycky writes: As the Central Asian states look to diversify their markets and establish stronger relationships with the West, Washington should look for new opportunities to cooperate with Astana, Tashkent, and the other regional capitals. Accessing the region’s rare earth minerals would lead to greater economic opportunities and enhance energy security for the Central Asian states. It may also give the United States the much-needed boost it needs in the race for rare earth minerals. – The National Interest

Defense

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday ordered a 20% reduction in the number of four-star officers, deepening cuts at the Pentagon that have shaken the Department of Defense at the start of President Donald Trump’s second term in office. – Reuters

A World War II-era Philippine navy ship to be used as a target in a combat exercise by American and the Philippine forces accidentally sank Monday hours before the mock assault, prompting the drill to be cancelled, U.S. and Philippine military officials said. – Associated Press

The US may need to spend up to $542 billion over 20 years to develop and launch a network of space-based interceptors, the Congressional Budget Office said, putting a rough cost estimate on an unproven part of President Donald Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” defense system. – Bloomberg

Major defense contractors appear to be split on the potential impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs, with one major firm bracing for hundreds of millions in potential lost profits, while others predict minimal effects. – Defense News

The Defense Innovation Unit and U.S. Northern Command are set to launch two opportunities Monday that are designed to accelerate the military’s access to capabilities that can detect, track and counter certain enemy drones, while reducing risks to people and assets on the ground. – Defense Scoop

Editorial: The urgent question is how to manage until then. Given the circumstances, maybe launching a trade war against China, foreclosing on the possibility of cooperation and coexistence, was not such a good idea. Rare earths and magnets alone should motivate the president to reduce hostilities with China and start talking. – Washington Post