Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

U.S. authorities on Thursday charged two Iranian men and seized $12 million used to purchase a now-detained Liberian-flagged oil tanker, calling it the largest seizure to date of funds used to support the elite Quds Force of Iran’s hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. – Washington Post

Iran dismissed as “illegitimate” efforts by the United States to extend the U.N. Security Council arms embargo on Tehran, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Monday. – Reuters  

President Hassan Rouhani’s spokesman says Tehran will show a “hard reaction” to the extension of the arms embargo against Iran due to end in October. – Radio Farda

Iran on Saturday denounced recent U.S. allegations that it was providing covert aid to help Venezuela overcome gas shortages as “baseless” without directly addressing them. – Associated Press

Iran will not hold its annual “Quds Day” rallies calling for Israel’s annihilation this year, due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. – Algemeiner

An outspoken conservative legislator in Iran has lambasted the Islamic Republic government for wasting the national treasury by offering U.S. dollars to some companies at a preferential low rate in 2018. – Radio Farda

Iran on Friday slammed Germany’s ban on the activities of Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah on its soil, saying it would face consequences for its decision to give in to the “propaganda machine” of Israel and US. – Times of Israel   

Hundreds of House lawmakers in both parties are calling on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to take “increased diplomatic action” to renew a United Nations arms embargo on Iran set to expire in October. – The Hill

A suspected Iranian spy arrested in March was once a member of the Arab Balad Party. Ayman Haj Yahya was arrested in a joint Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and Israel Police operation. He was indicted for spying for Tehran in April. – Jerusalem Post  

Roya Hakakian writes: No doubt Ali would be released if only he would denounce his sister. By refusing to do so, he is becoming a new kind of martyr in a region that sanctifies martyrdom. He is suffering to uphold the rights of women, but in doing so he is redefining for many Iranians what it means to be a man. For too long, brothers, husbands and fathers have empowered the oppressors, if not through their support, then through silence. A doting brother has shown that men, too, can play a role in the liberation of his nation’s women. – Washington Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: For the regime in Tehran, the pandemic has harmed its ability to get its hard-core, far-right activists out onto the streets to shout the usual “death to America” slogans – which fuel the regime’s feedback loop of using anti-Israel and anti-American propaganda to cover over its own failings at home. Nevertheless, Iran has not stopped its propaganda entirely. It circulated a list of signatures supposedly pushed by popular support for increasing the ranges of its missiles over the weekend. The regime wants to believe that average people are rushing to sign on to a form that urges the regime to build longer-range missiles. – Jerusalem Post 

Munqith Dagher writes: Now that Iran has made a major change to the status quo, it is up to the United States for the next move. How, and whether the United States will respond to the satellite launch will dictate the direction of this new chapter in the tensions between the two countries. […]Whatever the solution, the rules of game in the showdown between the United States and Iran have changed. Just as the world after coronavirus will be different from what preceded it, so too will the realities of the US-Iranian relationship after the launch of the Noor satellite, and those differences must be acknowledged and understood. – Washington Institute

Saeed Peyvandi writes: As a result of lack of transparency, lying and secrecy have become institutionalized in the Iranian political ecosystem. In order to remain in the government, one should turn a blind eye and keep silent. No one is bothered by the ugliness of deceit. […]As a result, no one trusts the government and its media outlets and everyone turns to other sources for truth and information. – Radio Farda

Blaise Misztal writes: Fundamentally, a Turkey-based strategy for countering Iran misdiagnoses what ails the Middle East. Iranian aggression is a threat to regional stability and U.S. interests, but it is a symptom, not the disease. So, too, with Sunni radicalism. The problem is political, not military. Empowering one imperial and undemocratic power to fight another, even if successful, would only deepen the Middle East’s troubles and diminish U.S. resources. – War on the Rocks

Israel

A key U.S. official said Israel is among the countries that need better screening of foreign investment to guard against having their companies turn toward China during the economic downturn sparked by the coronavirus pandemic. – Bloomberg

Israel’s Supreme Court was hearing arguments Monday against the legality of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition deal with formal rival Benny Gantz, a day after it deliberated on whether the longtime leader could head a government while indicted on serious crimes. – Associated Press

The Israeli woman who was wounded in a Palestinian stabbing attack at a bus stop in Kfar Saba earlier this week described for media on Friday what she went through. – Algemeiner

Jerold S. Auerbach writes: Israel certainly can — and arguably should — invite the return of some 30,000 genuine Palestinian refugees, a number guaranteed to decline over time. The only objections, ironically, are likely to come from UNRWA and its Arab minions. They desperately need Palestinian “refugees” to sustain their unyielding public relations war against Israel and, perhaps more important, to protect UNRWA bank accounts that assure their own salaries. But it is long past time to close this fraudulent charade that lacerates Israel for crimes that it did not commit. – Algemeiner

Danielle Roth-Avneri writes: The formation of the unity government represents the best of the Israeli spirit in the face of formidable crises. Israel’s nature is to unite during such times, just as it does during conflicts, days of remembrance, or more locally, when citizens rush to the aid of those in distress. The coronavirus pandemic, a public health enemy, has managed to push the political system into overcoming divisions among parties, enabling them to rise above political feuds and egos. – Algemeiner

Libya

Libya’s eastern-based forces trying to capture the country’s capital bombed civilian homes on Friday, killing at least two people, health authorities in the U.N.-supported government in Tripoli said. – Associated Press 

The UN mission in Libya has urged warring parties to resume military talks that were launched in Geneva in January aimed at achieving a lasting ceasefire. – The National  

Two years on, the 23-year-old, who now lives with other Somali migrants in Tripoli, was seeking assistance along with dozens of other migrants at a UN refugee centre when he spoke to the Financial Times. – Financial Times

Korean Peninsula

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s re-emergence in public ended weeks of speculation about his whereabouts and avoided a thorny diplomatic and military problem for China, the U.S. and South Korea at a tricky time. – Wall Street Journal

North and South Korea exchanged gunfire near one of the South’s guard posts inside the demilitarized zone that separates the two countries, the South Korean military said Sunday. – Washington Post

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, reappeared in dramatic fashion this weekend when he was shown on North Korean media after three weeks of unexplained absence, cutting the ribbon on a fertilizer factory — and quieting rumors that he was gravely ill. – New York Times

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un did not undergo surgery or any other medical procedure, a South Korean official said Sunday, amid speculation about his health that continues to linger even after he reappeared publicly in recent days. – Associated Press

North Korea’s collapse has been predicted — wrongly— for decades. Some said it would happen after fighting ended in the Korean War in 1953. Others thought it would be during a 1990s famine or when national founder Kim Il Sung died in 1994. And when the death of his son, Kim Jong Il, thrust a little-known 20-something into power in 2011, some felt the end was near. – Associated Press

A former senior North Korean diplomat apologised on Monday after saying leader Kim Jong Un was likely so ill he could not stand, days before he emerged in state media chain smoking and walking briskly at an event attended by hundreds of officials. – Reuters  

U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday welcomed the reemergence of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un after weeks of speculation about his health, but prospects for the U.S. efforts to persuade Pyongyang to denuclearize appear as bleak as ever. – Reuters   

Rachel Minyoung Lee writes: Yet Mr. Kim’s 19-day absence from the public view is not highly unusual considering the increased intervals between his public appearances of late. […]We should attempt to track Mr. Kim’s movements with more caution and reason — and perhaps less speculation — using context and past examples of longer gaps between his appearances to guide us. – New York Times

Tom Rogan writes: The strategic context here matters. Kim is in much need of sanctions relief. But with the U.S. insisting that relief won’t come until Pyongyang takes verifiable steps toward nuclear and ballistic missile disarmament, Kim has increasing temptation to roll the dice with escalation. He will hope that any escalation might earn President Trump’s appeasement. Regardless, Sunday’s limited exchange of gunfire should not be cause for alarm. At best, it was a mistake. At worse, it was Kim reminding us that he’s back and means business. – Washington Examiner

Donald Kirk writes: Whatever the condition of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the moment[…] his absence from public view for more than two weeks now is a reminder that his demise could plunge his country and the region, maybe even the world, into a huge new geopolitical crisis. – The Daily Beast

Afghanistan

The foreign ministry of Afghanistan on Saturday said it was investigating claims that dozens of Afghan migrants detained in Iran were tortured by that country’s border guards and thrown into a river, where many of them drowned. – New York Times

A bitter feud between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah appeared closer to resolution Friday after Abdullah said the two men had moved forward in talks. – Agence France-Presse

The Taliban on Monday claimed responsibility for an attack at a military centre in southern Helmand province in Afghanistan where at least 150 members of the Afghan army and intelligence wing were stationed. – Reuters

Representatives of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Taliban insurgents engaged in a rare public spat on Saturday, venting on social media about the stalling Afghan peace process. – Reuters

Afghan Taliban insurgents killed 17 civilians and wounded 49 during the first week of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, further chipping away at their pledge to reduce violence following a peace deal with the U.S. – Bloomberg

Anthony H. Cordesman writes: The assessment concludes with a brief analysis of whether the United States should withdraw from Afghanistan if the Afghan central government continues to be a failed state, and if the current peace agreement will break down because of its failures. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Russia

In the space of two months Covid-19 has laid waste to both his political agenda and the economic model that underpins his regime, turning 2020 from a year scripted to usher in another decade of Putin rule into one that could undermine his supremacy. – Financial Times 

Dalibor Rohac writes: The Kremlin’s arrogance and open hostility toward the Czech Republic in general and Prague city officials in particular are now undercutting such claims, undoing years of Russian efforts to build influence in the country and weaken the case for European Union sanctions. And, unlike some of Russia’s immediate neighbors, the Czech Republic is not helpless — it is part of the most successful military alliance in the world, NATO, and of the world’s largest economy, the E.U. In both organizations, the constituency for a more muscular approach toward Russia has just grown a little bit bigger. – Washington Post

John Fairlamb writes: Extending New START and entering into negotiations to reduce the numbers of deployed U.S. and Russian strategic systems are both in the U.S. national interest. The Trump administration should seize this opportunity to do so. – The Hill

Africa

A soldier from the French foreign legion died in a military hospital near Paris on Friday after being wounded in an explosion in Mali last week in what the French presidency said was an operation against armed terrorist groups. – Reuters

Bernard-Henri Levy writes: The Amniyat—the intelligence service that is the elite of al-Shabaab—concluded that he was taking it too easy. They didn’t like it when he asked to be transferred to the coast guard. Suspecting him of illegally trading with Burundian soldiers, they started spying on him, calling his kids at night, or summoning him unexpectedly. […]How many Somalis have broken away from this mafia? Very few, I fear. I reached the end of my investigation with the feeling that after 30 years of futile war, no power in Somalia rivals al-Shabaab. – Wall Street Journal

Emilia Columbo and Marielle Harris write: The extent of extremist advances in sub-Saharan Africa during the Covid-19 outbreak will depend on regional government responses and insurgent ability to navigate rapidly shifting circumstances. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Latin America

The government of President Nicolás Maduro said it had thwarted an early morning “invasion” off its Caribbean coast on Sunday, alleging its intelligence forces had uncovered a plot, ambushed the attackers and captured or killed 10. – Washington Post

A Supreme Court judge issued an injunction on Saturday suspending for 10 days a decision by Brazil’s right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro to expel Venezuela’s 30 diplomats and consular staff. – Reuters 

Editorial: For decades, Venezuela’s oil industry thrived. But under Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, the government took over — and began milking it for fast cash while firing expert workers and managers and slashing spending on maintenance, repairs and other vital capital investment. […]Because Maduro won’t allow safe private investment, he has to turn to his “allies” in Tehran — except the regime there insists on hard payment for its expertise. No honor among thieves, y’know. – New York Post