Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The U.S. and Iran are within reach of an agreement to wind down the war, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters Thursday, but President Trump has yet to sign off on it, and the White House wants a deal that satisfies several key conditions. – Wall Street Journal

Naval blockades, military history has shown, require patience […] Wearing down an enemy with a blockade can take months or years, military experts say, and certainly not weeks. – New York Times

No U.S. aircraft were shot down ​near Bushehr, Iran, ​despite a claim made ⁠on Iranian state ​TV, the U.S. military ​said. Iran’s state TV said early on Friday that ​a U.S. aircraft ​was destroyed in Iran’s Jam ‌governorate ⁠in Bushehr, citing its governor Masoud Tangestani. – Reuters

The U.S. said on Thursday it has imposed new sanctions on Iran’s ​military oil trade, even as Washington and Tehran reached a ‌tentative agreement to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters

The United States struck southern Iran on Thursday, after Iran fired drones at ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz, drawing retaliation from Tehran against a US military base, in the most serious clashes since an April ceasefire began. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Ending the dueling blockades in the deal’s first phase would help the global economy, and especially Iran’s. But the Strait was also open before the war. Merely trading blockade for blockade would offer the President a way out of the war, but it’s no victory. A good deal would remove what remains of Iran’s nuclear program. That means all the enriched uranium and the underground sites, with intrusive inspections and an enrichment ban. Major gaps remain on these second-phase matters, and for one reason only: Iran’s regime still intends to pursue nuclear bombs. It negotiates with that in mind. – Wall Street Journal

Rachel Avraham writes: Ultimately, the struggle unfolding across the Middle East and South Asia is not only geopolitical – it is also ideological. The central question facing many societies today is whether political systems will move toward pluralism, coexistence, institutional stability, and technological progress – or toward radicalization, sectarian politics, and ideological absolutism. The international community, therefore, faces a shared responsibility: opposing extremism without demonizing entire populations, protecting minorities without encouraging sectarian hatred, and supporting democracy, women’s rights, religious freedom, and peaceful coexistence across all regions. – Jerusalem Post

Pesach Wolicki writes: The Iranian people have been betrayed by Western leaders before. They have watched American presidents draw red lines and walk away from them, negotiate with their oppressors, and ultimately leave them to face the consequences alone. If this deal goes through as reported, they will watch it happen again. And this time, the president who is doing it is the one who told them the hour of their freedom was at hand. – Jerusalem Post

Hezbollah

Hezbollah militants are increasingly adept at using explosive drones, deploying night-vision gear and first-person viewers to inflict a deadly toll on Israeli ground troops. – Wall Street Journal

Israel widened its offensive in Lebanon on Thursday, striking Beirut for the first time in almost a month and pushing deeper into the country’s south, as its escalating conflict with Hezbollah threatens negotiations to end the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. – New York Times

About one-third of Hezbollah’s pre-2023 forces have been killed by the IDF in recent years, IDF Spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin said Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF carried out a targeted strike Thursday in the Beirut area, attempting to kill Ali al-Husseini, commander of the missile array in the Imam Hussein Division, a militia that assists Hezbollah and is linked to Iran. – Ynet

Seth Mandel writes: It is fun to believe that if only Israel would create more vacuums without establishing concrete peace arrangements, there would somehow be peace. Yet 100 percent of the times Israel has done so, the result was war. And 100 percent of the times Israel has first made concrete peace arrangements, there has been peace. You would think something that is true 100 percent of the time is a pretty good bet. But there’s a very simple reason people still do not want Israel to do what brings peace 100 percent of the time: Israel’s critics, including much of the world’s media, don’t want peace. – Commentary Magazine

Middle East & North Africa

The social media post by President Trump made it sound straightforward. The United States would orchestrate a deal to end the war with Iran and, in exchange, a slew of countries across the Middle East and South Asia would join an agreement, called the Abraham Accords, establishing relations with Israel. – New York Times

Drone attacks were reported on three tankers in the Black Sea ​on Thursday near Turkey’s northern coast, ‌shipping agency Tribeca said. The tanker James II, sailing under the Palau flag and in ​ballast, was some 50 miles (80 km) ​north of the Turkeli Area in the ⁠Black Sea when the incident occurred, ​the agency said. – Reuters

After more than a decade of war, sanctions, and economic collapse, Syria is drawing renewed attention from regional and international investors looking at reconstruction opportunities in energy, infrastructure, logistics, real estate, and digital services, even as sanctions exposure, weak institutions, damaged infrastructure, and political uncertainty continue to make the country one of the region’s riskiest markets. – Jerusalem Post

David Schenker writes: Only time will tell whether Zaidi will continue that momentum. As his term begins, the Iraqi state is a long way off from establishing sole discretion over matters of war and peace; much like Lebanon, it remains dominated by Iran-backed militias. Moreover, the end of the Iran war could mean the release of billions in frozen assets to Tehran, potentially strengthening these militias even further and adding to the difficulty of dislodging them. Yet if Zaidi fails to take at least the minimal step of curbing their attacks abroad, these groups will inevitably undermine Baghdad’s relations with Washington and Arab states, impede Iraq’s economic development, and precipitate additional foreign military strikes on Iraqi soil. – Washington Institute

China

Taiwan should not “interfere” in Chinese air force missions around the island which are taking place in China’s airspace, the defence ​ministry in Beijing said on Thursday, responding to a week ‌of manoeuvres that Taipei has complained about. – Reuters

China is negotiating with ​the European Union ‌within the framework of the World ​Trade Organization ​over the bloc’s new ⁠limits on duty-free ​steel imports, a spokesperson ​for China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters

Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun will skip this week’s Shangri-La Dialogue, after Beijing on Thursday said it is sending a delegation ​of “experts and scholars” from the People’s Liberation Army to the security forum. – Reuters

In a remote Chinese desert, a vast military complex is taking shape that some security scholars say appears built to ensure no American first strike on China’s nuclear arsenal could reliably knock out Beijing’s ability to hit back. – Reuters

Jillian Kay Melchior writes: The U.S. could designate Hong Kong a primary money-laundering concern jurisdiction under the Patriot Act, which imposes additional due-diligence requirements on Western businesses operating there. One relic of Hong Kong’s freer days is how fast and easy it remains to establish a business there. Hong Kong statistics show that by the end of 2025, there were more than 7,200 licensed trust or company service providers. But capitalism under the Chinese Communist Party’s authoritarian shadow is lawless capitalism. As Hong Kong has become more like China, it’s no surprise adversaries see it as a hub for illicit business. – Wall Street Journal

Jason Hsu writes: A stable US-China relationship is a worthy goal. But stability purchased by weakening Taiwan is not stability. It is appeasement by another name. It would invite more pressure, not less. It would tell Beijing that coercion works. It would signal to allies that America’s commitments depend on the mood at the next summit. A good deal with China cannot come at the expense of America’s credibility, Asia’s balance of power, or the security of the global technology economy. If Xi wants stability, the path is simple: stop threatening Taiwan, stop military intimidation, and stop trying to turn US arms sales into Chinese bargaining rights. Taiwan should not be on the auction block. And President Trump should make clear that America’s support for Taiwan’s self-defense is not for sale. – The National Interest

Asia

The Australian government said on Thursday that it was suing 3M for more than $1.4 billion in damages, alleging that the American industrial conglomerate had concealed information about the harmful effects of “forever chemicals” used at more than two dozen military sites across the country. – New York Times

Japan’s U.N. ambassador on Thursday dismissed as “ridiculous” Russia’s criticism of its military buildup at a time when Moscow was continuing its war ​against Ukraine in violation of the U.N. Charter. – Reuters

Japan and the Philippines said on Thursday they would begin talks on an agreement to ​share classified information to allow Tokyo to step ‌up transfers of military equipment to Manila, including warships. – Reuters

Sixty-four Chinese citizens ​detained in the Philippines have been ‌released after the Philippine justice department ruled there was insufficient evidence for the ​allegations they faced, China’s embassy ​in the Southeast Asian country said. – Reuters

A Philippine senator and son of a former president could soon face arrest after an ​anti-graft body charged him on Thursday of receiving illicit payouts in ‌an infrastructure scandal that has slowed economic growth and hammered consumer and investor confidence. – Reuters

Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will hold a commemorative summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia in June, the Philippines’ top diplomat said Friday. – Associated Press

A Thai court dismissed a high-profile royal defamation case against banned Thai opposition figure Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, removing a hurdle for his potential return to politics. – Bloomberg

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth arrived early Friday in Singapore, where he will meet with regional leaders and security counterparts ahead of a closely watched address at a major Asian security forum Saturday. – Bloomberg

Russia and Kazakhstan signed a series of deals during a visit by President Vladimir Putin, including a currency swap arrangement and an agreement on financing for the construction of the Central Asian nation’s first nuclear power plant. – Bloomberg

Karishma Vaswani writes: China claims most of the waterway through a disputed nine-dash line, based on a 1947 map that Beijing claims legitimizes its ownership. Vietnam says its stake dates back centuries. A crisis over Taiwan or the South China Sea could eventually force Hanoi closer to one side. If Trump decided to impose more tariffs, that could also push Vietnam to diversify away from American markets faster than it want. The economy remains deeply connected to both superpowers in different ways — the US is a crucial export market, while China is a vital source of industrial inputs. Still, Hanoi’s path reflects a broader shift underway in Asia, where countries are building their own networks to hedge against both Washington and Beijing. Vietnam may simply be further ahead. – Bloomberg

Hal Brands writes: The longer that drags on, the more encouraged China would be to issue new demands, and the likelier that Trump’s hesitation would cause a dangerous crisis of confidence in Taipei. In the runup to Taiwan’s presidential election in January 2028, US ambivalence could empower voices advocating accommodation toward Beijing — like that of Cheng Li-wun, chair of the opposition KMT. American allies in the region might draw the conclusion that Trump’s Washington, cowed by China, won’t even help US partners help themselves. For good or ill, this arms sale has become pivotal to US posture in the Western Pacific, because it will reveal so much about Trump’s willingness to buck Beijing. – Bloomberg

Ken Moriyasu writes: The appeal of the Silk Seven lies in geography and connectivity. But the strength of OTS lies in a shared civilizational identity. In an era of geopolitical fragmentation, Central Asia may find that infrastructure enables growth–but identity anchors political cohesion. For centuries, Central Asia’s nomadic societies thrived not by choosing fixed alignments, but by remaining fluid—adapting to shifting trade routes, political currents, and external powers. Mobility and flexibility were not weaknesses, but survival strategies. In that sense, the Silk Seven and the Organization of Turkic States need not be competing visions. Central Asia’s strength may lie precisely in its ability to straddle both—building multiple connections without being bound by any single framework. – Times of Central Asia

Africa

The Trump administration said Thursday it had reached a deal with Kenya to establish a quarantine facility for Americans exposed to Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo, an arrangement that has drawn fierce opposition from Kenyan medical groups. – Wall Street Journal

At least 16 students died and scores were injured in Kenya on Thursday after an early morning fire tore through the dormitory of a girls’ boarding school, forcing many to jump out of windows. – New York Times

South Africa’s parliament has scheduled for Monday the first meeting of an impeachment committee ​that will probe allegations around President Cyril Ramaphosa’s “Farmgate” scandal, the Democratic Alliance ‌party said on Thursday. – Reuters

The World Health ​Organization said on ‌Thursday on X that, in partnership ​with the ​national medical research organization ⁠of the ​Democratic Republic of ​Congo, it is scaling up Ebola diagnostic ​capacities in ​the country to help swiftly ‌contain ⁠an outbreak. – Reuters

Ethiopians will vote in parliamentary and regional elections on Monday that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s party is expected to dominate despite significant unrest across much of ​Africa’s second most populous country. – Reuters

Nigeria’s main opposition party picked Atiku Abubakar as its flagbearer in January’s presidential elections, setting up a rematch of his 2023 contest with incumbent leader Bola Tinubu. – Bloomberg

North America

For more than a year, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has traveled the world seeking new economic and security ties, casting reliance on American trade as a weakness amid tense relations with the Trump administration. – Wall Street Journal

Cuba’s desperate wait for fuel seems to have just gotten longer. A Russian tanker that had appeared headed to Cuba — with 242,000 barrels of badly needed diesel — has turned away from the island and now appears to be on its way to South America. – New York Times

Cuba’s Deputy Foreign Minister Josefina Vidal sees the risk of U.S. military aggression against the island ​growing as negotiations between the nations stagnate, she said ‌on Thursday. – Reuters

Mexico’s Congress on Thursday approved ‌a constitutional amendment that would allow for elections to be annulled if evidence of foreign interference was found, a move critics warn could weaken the electoral process and make it easier for losers to overturn results. – Reuters

Mexicans’ concern about corruption is at the highest level of Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency, as US accusations against a governor add to scandals hitting high-ranking figures and institutions. – Bloomberg

Daniel Bustos writes: Every so often, economic logic and strategic interests align. Expanding U.S. with Mexico is one of those moments. It offers a win-win that results in stronger markets for American producers, reliable fuel for Mexico’s industrial rise, more resilient North American food and energy systems, and an example for the history books that cooperation between neighbors still produces tangible results. Opportunities to strengthen American energy leadership without inventing a new program or spending taxpayer dollars are rare. This one is worth acting on. – Washington Examiner

Cybersecurity

Government ethics watchdogs are sounding the alarm after the Pentagon announced that the U.S. tech company Dell has been granted a $9.7 billion government contract, pointing to stock transactions that suggest President Donald Trump potentially stands to gain financially from the deal. – Washington Post

The low-cost Chinese e-commerce platform Temu was fined 200 million euros ($232 million) by the European Union on Thursday for failing to spot and curb the sale of illegal products. – New York Times

Israel’s Wix.com (WIX.O), which helps small businesses build and operate websites, is laying off ​20% of its workforce, CEO Avishai Abrahami said on ‌Thursday, citing a strong shekel versus the dollar and the rapid evolution of AI. – Reuters

Huawei’s new chip design principle focused on boosting transmission speed rather than continuing to shrink semiconductors offers a path for China to build cutting-edge chips ​despite U.S. sanctions, though whether it represents a true breakthrough remains to be seen. – Reuters

A House subcommittee will hold an open hearing next week on how frontier artificial intelligence models are shaping the cybersecurity landscape, for good and for ill. – Cyberscoop

The head of Britain’s cyber and signals intelligence agency delivered a stark warning Wednesday that Russia is conducting daily hybrid attacks against the United Kingdom and Europe, stretching “from the seabed to cyberspace.” – The Record

Jared Dunnmon, Avanika Narayan, and Jon Saad-Falcon write: As frontier AI systems move ever closer to creating what Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has termed a “country of geniuses in a data center,” open-weight AI is already powering a veritable world of virtual assistants on devices around the globe that help everyday people work and live more efficiently and effectively. The next phase of the U.S.-China AI competition will be in no small part decided by which models become the default on the world’s local devices. Unless Washington makes the necessary changes, that distinction will belong to China. – Foreign Affairs