Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Israeli airstrike that targeted Hamas’s Gaza chief this month hit him as he attended a meeting of the group’s highest ranking militants, killing several important operatives and leaving a void in its top leadership, Hamas and Arab officials said. – Wall Street Journal

While many Israelis said they were at a loss for words over the tragedy, politicians began to trade blame for the attack. At least four Israeli government ministers took to X to accuse their leftist countrymen of fueling the deadly shooting with their criticism of the government. – Washington Post

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on Thursday named a replacement spy chief to lead Israel’s domestic intelligence service, known as the Shin Bet, after a public clash with the last agency director. – New York Times

The slaying of two Israeli Embassy aides on Wednesday outside a Jewish museum in Washington was an extreme example of what law enforcement officials and others call a global surge in antisemitic incidents that emerged after Hamas terrorists killed more than 1,200 people and seized 250 hostages on Oct. 7, 2023. – New York Times

The head of the Palestinian Red Crescent said on Thursday its operations in Gaza may stop within days in the absence of fresh supplies and its ambulance fleet was running at only a third of capacity due to fuel shortages. – Reuters

Israel’s military said it intercepted two missiles launched from Yemen and that sirens had sounded twice across the country including in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank on Thursday, as the Iran-aligned Houthis stepped up attacks. – Reuters

A total of 107 aid trucks belonging to the United Nations and other aid groups carrying flour, food, medical equipment and pharmaceutical drugs were transferred on Thursday into the Gaza Strip, the Israeli military said. – Reuters

A senior Israeli diplomat on Thursday defended his country’s military after soldiers fired warning shots near a delegation of European diplomats visiting the occupied West Bank, an incident France condemned as “unacceptable” and prompted it to summon Israel’s ambassador. – Associated Press

The Israeli army issued an evacuation warning on Thursday for 14 neighborhoods of northern Gaza, as it pressed a renewed offensive that has drawn international condemnation. – Agence France-Presse

Majed Al-Zeer, a designated senior Hamas operative and one of the group’s main operatives in Europe, is now wanted under a European arrest warrant issued by Germany, as reported by Swedish Aftonbladet. – Jerusalem Post

IDF troops mapped the home of the two terrorists who aided in the terror attack that killed Tzeela Gez last Wednesday, the IDF announced Friday morning. – Jerusalem Post

IDF control of the Gaza Strip has jumped more than 50% in recent weeks. At that pace, the IDF is well on its way to controlling the vast majority of the enclave. – Jerusalem Post

Israel’s Ambassador to the European Union Haim Regev told Israeli journalists in Brussels on Thursday of a “diplomatic erosion” between Jerusalem and the EU, an Israeli source familiar with the discussions said, confirming earlier Hebrew media reports. – Times of Israel

Editorial: To be an effective international broker, the UN cannot dismiss the true grief and struggle of the Israeli people, as it has. The horrors of this war do not extend only to one side. The UN has no right to gaslight us about our history and our hostages. The heart of Israel is and will remain with the hostages. We know what an attack is. – Jerusalem Post

Daniel Friedman writes: So when Prime Minister Sanchez accuses Israel of genocide, the irony and hypocrisy are staggering. Israel was created in part so that there would be one place where Jews could defend themselves. That’s what Israel is doing now. Not exterminating a people, but defending its own citizens from one that has vowed to wipe it off the map – while taking unsurpassed measures to protect innocent Palestinian civilians from the pain and suffering their genocidal Hamas regime has brought upon them. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine fired hundreds of exploding drones at Russia beginning on Tuesday night and continuing into Thursday morning, in one of the largest attacks in more than three years of war, Russian authorities said. – New York Times

Europe needs to step “out of its comfort zone” and consider much tougher sanctions on Russia, such as bans on gas or uranium, or tapping into frozen Russian state assets, Thorsten Frei, the chief of staff of Germany’s new chancellor, told Reuters. – Reuters

Ukraine should abandon any notion of restoring its borders established with the 1991 collapse of Soviet rule or even those dating from the 2022 full-scale Russian invasion, the country’s former military commander was quoted as saying on Thursday. – Reuters

Russia and Ukraine have no direct peace talks scheduled, the Kremlin said Thursday, nearly a week after their first face-to-face session since shortly after Moscow’s invasion in 2022 and days after U.S. President Donald Trump said they would start ceasefire negotiations “immediately.” – Associated Press

Senate Republicans are warning Russia that they’re prepared to pass punishing sanctions if President Vladimir Putin refuses to engage in ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine or breaches an eventual agreement. – Bloomberg

Russia has started to create a buffer zone along its border with Ukraine as the Kremlin continues efforts to strengthen defenses in neighboring regions against attacks. – Bloomberg

Hal Brands writes: The worst-case scenario is an erosion of Ukraine’s position that starts slowly, then snowballs, resulting in outright defeat or a murderous peace imposed at the point of a gun. Americans didn’t like that mix of human tragedy and strategic humiliation when it happened in Afghanistan. They won’t like it much better if it happens in Ukraine. The war in that country may end up haunting Trump, no matter how much he insists it’s not his fight. – Bloomberg

Turkey

Turkey’s authorities should present credible evidence of corruption against Istanbul’s jailed mayor or immediately release him, U.S. Senator Adam Schiff said on Thursday as he urged his colleagues to back a resolution calling out President Tayyip Erdogan over what he called democratic backsliding. – Reuters

Turkey must lift a 30-year old war threat against Greece if it wants Athens to consent to Ankara accessing European Union defence funds, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Thursday. – Reuters

Turkey’s central bank left its year-end inflation forecast unchanged at 24% on Thursday but Governor Fatih Karahan said it is ready to tighten policy if inflation worsens, after having pivoted to raising interest rates last month. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

The Trump administration is weighing a withdrawal of thousands of American troops from South Korea, according to defense officials familiar with the discussions, a move that could stir new anxiety among allies worried about the White House commitment to Asia. – Wall Street Journal

North Korea has begun a full-scale investigation into the accident that occurred during the launch of a warship this week, state media KCNA reported on Friday. – Reuters

South Korea’s defence ministry said on Friday that Seoul and Washington had not had discussions about the withdrawal of some U.S. troops stationed in the country. – Reuters

Just three years after South Korea’s former President Yoon Suk Yeol moved the presidential office from the historic Blue House, his potential successors are vowing to move again, as they seek to escape the taint of his martial law attempt. – Reuters

South Korea will prepare support measures for agricultural and food exporters, while closely monitoring the impact of U.S. tariffs on the sector, the finance ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters

Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Victor Cha and Jennifer Jun write: How severe the damage to the vessel is, whether it is a total loss, how long it will take to repair, and how successful the overall salvage operation will be are yet unclear. Regardless, this second Choe Hyon-class DDGHM will not be entering Korean Peoples’ Navy (KPN) service anytime soon and may ultimately prove to be a complete loss. This delay in launching the vessel has undoubtedly disrupted Kim Jong-un’s planned timeline for the development of the KPN from a coastal defense force into a nascent blue-water force capable of strategic offensive operations.  – Center for Strategic and International Studies

South Asia

Sheikh Samiullah, a frequent flier, thought nothing of it when he heard the pilot of his flight tell passengers to fasten their seatbelts and ask the cabin crew to be seated. – New York Times

Separate talks with Myanmar’s junta leader and his key rivals have borne fruit, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said, setting the stage for the first time for direct contact between two sides embroiled in a protracted and devastating civil war. – Reuters

Bangladesh’s de-facto prime minister has threatened to step down if political parties cannot agree on reforms that citizens await with growing impatience, a top student leader has said, deepening uncertainty in the wake of deadly protests last year. – Reuters

There are hardly any tourists in the scenic Himalayan region of Kashmir. Most of the hotels and ornate pinewood houseboats are empty. Resorts in the snowclad mountains have fallen silent. Hundreds of cabs are parked and idle. – Associated Press

A retired high-ranking officer in Myanmar’s military was shot dead by a self-proclaimed urban guerrilla group on Thursday near his home in the country’s biggest city, marking the latest assassination attributed to militants opposed to army rule. – Associated Press

Aqil Shah writes: Cooler heads would exercise restraint from a proxy war because Pakistan can ill afford repeated confrontations with an economically and militarily more powerful rival—nor to court the risk of nuclear escalation. India, too, should not want perpetual conflict with Pakistan when it seeks to be a great power. But any respite from violence will likely be temporary as long as one side still believes that it has something to gain from assailing the other. – Foreign Affairs

Sushant Singh writes: It is a test of whether India can adapt to a multipolar South Asia, where smaller states want to reassert their sovereignty. If the Modi government fails to recalibrate, it risks not only the loss of Indian influence in Bangladesh, but also the unraveling of its entire Neighborhood First and Act East policies. The lesson is clear: Strategic depth cannot be bought with autocratic bargains or defended with force alone. It must be earned through respect, restraint, and a willingness to see neighbors as equals. – Foreign Policy

Europe

Just hours after President Donald Trump signaled he would not be punishing Russia with more sanctions this week, Britain joined the European Union in punishing Russia with more sanctions. – Washington Post

The authorities in London have charged a member of the Northern Irish hip-hop group Kneecap with a terrorism offense, accusing him of displaying a flag in support of the Hezbollah militant group at a concert in November. – New York Times

France rejects Israeli comments accusing some European officials of antisemitic incitement, Foreign Ministry spokesman Christophe Lemoine told reporters at a weekly news conference, adding these comments were “unjustified and outrageous”. – Reuters

Britain signed a deal on Thursday to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, after a London judge overturned a last-minute injunction and cleared the way for an agreement the government says is vital to protect the nation’s security. – Reuters

Nine European countries, led by Italy and Denmark, will on Thursday call on the European Union to make it simpler for member states to expel foreign criminals, according to a letter seen by Reuters. – Reuters

The EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas on Thursday said the bloc has begun to lift sanctions on Kosovo, but that the process would be conditional on a sustained de-escalation of violence and hostilities in the north. – Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to south east Asia to pitch France and Europe as reliable partners with “no strings attached” as the U.S. and China use more aggressive ways to gain influence in the region, officials said. – Reuters

Romania’s Constitutional Court said on Thursday it had unanimously rejected a request to cancel the May 18 presidential election that was won by centrist Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan. – Reuters

France and Germany have drafted a set of options to financially and politically isolate, including with sanctions, officials in Bosnia’s Serb-majority region whose bid to secede has plunged the Balkan country into crisis, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg News. – Bloomberg

Poland’s opposition candidate for president, Karol Nawrocki, said he won’t support NATO membership for Ukraine and is “more critical” than the incumbent toward Kyiv, as he seeks to court far-right voters ahead of a runoff in a closely-contested election. – Bloomberg

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on Thursday that the Baltic Sea is becoming “a new area of confrontation” with Russia, putting the country’s critical infrastructure increasingly at risk. – Bloomberg

A dispute over Gaza appears to have sparked a fight in the European Parliament on Wednesday, with a left-wing staffer and a center-right MEP accusing each other of aggression — and the Parliament’s initial assessment siding with the MEP’s version of events. – Politico

Prosecutors said Thursday they plan to indict a convicted Swedish militant for his suspected involvement in the 2014 capture of a Jordanian pilot in Syria and burning him to death in a cage. – Agence France-Presse

The Americas

Just as Canada tries to exit one crisis, another one looms. The country is finding its footing after a protracted political transition to a new leader, amid President Trump’s tariffs and sovereignty threats. – New York Times

Canada’s Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said on Thursday that the discussions on tariffs did come up during a G7 finance leaders’ meeting, even though there was mention of them in the final communique that was published. – Reuters

Top Haitian ministers called for urgent security support from neighbors at a meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS) on Thursday, while the U.S. signaled it would not continue current funding aimed at holding back the nation’s armed gangs. – Reuters

Flights between Panama and Venezuela have been cleared to restart, Panama’s aviation authority said on Thursday, nearly a year after they were suspended due to a diplomatic standoff between the two nations. – Reuters

A civil court in Peru has issued a landmark ruling recognizing the territorial rights of the Kichwa people within a protected area in the Amazon — marking a major breakthrough for Indigenous land claims. – Associated Press

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she discussed US steel and aluminum tariffs on Thursday, in her latest call with Donald Trump. – Bloomberg

In Venezuela’s capital city, there’s hardly any sign that an election will take place this Sunday. The same billboards from last year’s presidential vote still line Caracas’ highways. – Bloomberg

Craig A. Deare writes: Instead of having a respected voice within the Sheinbaum administration making the case for working with its American partners against the criminal groups, the Mexican military would likely cease all conversation, cooperation and coordination. And if we in the U.S. were unhappy with our Mexican counterparts during López Obrador’s term, the dramatic turn from cooperation to outright hostility would be even worse. – The Hill

Cybersecurity

Hackers working for Russian military intelligence targeted Western technology and logistics companies involved in shipping assistance to Ukraine, the U.S. National Security Agency said. – Associated Press

The Navy and Marine Corps are poised to consolidate legacy and standalone IT networks into an enterprise information ecosystem as part of a large-scale modernization campaign that seeks to reduce the cyber attack surface, improve user experience and optimize technology investments. – Defensescoop

Staff at the Department of Homeland Security are no longer allowed to use commercial generative artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT and Claude, according to a memo sent to employees this month. – Fedscoop

The alleged leader of the cybercriminal gang behind the Qakbot malware, which was used by many high-profile ransomware gangs, has been indicted by the U.S. Justice Department. – The Record

Since January, cybersecurity experts at Cisco Talos have seen Chinese hackers exploiting CVE-2025-0994 — a bug impacting Trimble Cityworks. The tool is used by local governments to manage critical infrastructure assets from one platform and organize inspections, work orders, permits, operations and more. – The Record

Michael C. Horowitz writes: Finally, the directive also sends a strong signal internationally. In concert with the Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy, the directive provides a role model for capacity building as countries make their own policy decisions about incorporating autonomy into their weapon systems, building on lessons learned from the Russo-Ukrainian War or elsewhere. – War on the Rocks