Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Russia said that its military and security forces were fighting against Ukrainian units that had crossed into its southern Belgorod region, the largest such incursion into Russian territory since the war began. – Wall Street Journal

As Ukraine enters a pivotal stage in its war with Russia, U.S. and NATO leaders are coalescing around a vision for shoring up Ukrainian defenses and seeking to guarantee the country’s sovereign future. It is a security model that Western leaders, including President Biden, have compared to what Israel has now. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian forces have been reduced to small footholds in the devastated eastern city of Bakhmut, which despite its limited strategic importance has emerged as the war’s bloodiest battlefield. But they have made gains on the Russian flanks, in a move to encircle the city and extend the fight there, according to Ukrainian officials and military personnel in the field. – Washington Post

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine grabbed the spotlight at the Group of 7 summit in Japan and won even more pledges for military aid, including training for Ukraine’s pilots on F-16 fighter jets. But at home this week he faces questions about the future of the eastern city of Bakhmut, the deadliest battle of the war. – New York Times

It took the Kremlin almost a year and cost the lives of thousands of soldiers to capture Bakhmut, but now that Russian forces appear to have control of the Ukrainian city, it is fair to question the value of what they have gained. – New York Times

Six African leaders propose that Ukraine accept opening peace talks with Russia even as Russian troops remain on its soil, South Africa’s presidency said on Monday, as South African officials prepare to visit both countries to sell the idea. – Reuters

Denmark would like to host a summit in July aimed at finding peace between Ukraine and Russia, but such a meeting would need engagement from India, China and Brazil, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said Monday. – Reuters

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday that Group of Seven nuclear “rhetoric” has the sole aim of exerting psychological, military and political pressure on Moscow and Beijing. – Reuters

Between two personality types — absent-minded professor and off-kilter chief executive — the American president is plainly veering into the latter category as one international debacle after another piles up. The latest is the fall of Bakhmut: Kyiv insists that Russia, having laid waste to the strategically situated town in eastern Ukraine, has “not occupied” it. – New York Sun

Editorial: The motivation of the arrest was to silence him. Sure, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government has made it illegal to criticize the military, including the use of the word “war.” But the United States should not be endorsing this absurdity. Mr. Putin is a perpetrator of war crimes against Ukraine; that is the real criminality. Mr. Kara-Murza stands for unshakable principles. The United States should stand with him. – Washington Post

Editorial: Russia’s army in Ukraine might not collapse anytime soon; it might be able to hold its deeply entrenched positions in the face of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. But the jockeying pitting Mr. Prigozhin against Russia’s top brass, which makes a mockery of command unity, reflects the rot of a regime for which cynicism, repression, lies and violence are defining features. – Washington Post

Editorial: Which brings us back to Ukraine. Whatever one concludes about the decision making in 1991, it’s hard to see what role Russia could play in the world body in the generation to come. It may or may not be logical for the seat to go to Ukraine, though that is what Mr. Lévy suggests. “Memory permits it, morality wishes it, and an open debate among united and sovereign nations could decide it,” he contends. It would be a good cause for France. – New York Sun

Leonid Bershidsky writes: This is not a great position to be in a year and three months into what was supposed to be a blitzkrieg. In that sense, Bakhmut, turned into a desert by the fighting, has served and is still serving its purpose for Ukraine. The Russian forces had better leave any sparkling wine still sitting in Bakhmut cellars alone. It’s too early to pop the bubbly. – Bloomberg

Gulf States

Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to launch negotiations towards a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, Malaysia’s trade ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Video footage of clashes and protests at the Makhmour refugee camp in northern Iraq, southwest of Erbil, appear to show Iraqi army and security forces in a standoff with camp residents. The camp houses more than 10,000 refugees and has been targeted by Turkey in the past. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran often exploits divisions in Iraq in order to achieve its goals. For instance, Iran has traditionally been closer to the Kurdish PUK party which is strongest in Sulimaniyeh near Iran. However, dissident groups such as Komala and PDKI are also present in this area, meaning Iran must try hard not to destabilize the Kurdish area, while also pressuring PUK to expel the dissident groups. At the same time, Turkey has put pressure on the PUK as well, accusing them of working with Kurdish groups in Syria which Ankara accuses of being “terrorists.” – Jerusalem Post

China

Beijing responded to the Group of Seven leaders’ firm language toward China by pouring cold water Monday on President Biden’s suggestion that a thaw in U.S.-China relations was imminent. – Wall Street Journal

A new Chinese clampdown on American chip giant Micron Technology MU -2.85%decrease; red down pointing triangle has put South Korea in an uncomfortable position. Amid a series of tit-for-tat trade moves between Beijing and Washington, China, citing national-security risks, banned certain local firms in key information-infrastructure industries from buying memory chips from Micron. The clampdown affects parts of Micron’s roughly $3 billion in annual sales from China. – Wall Street Journal

The leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) rich democracies this weekend pledged to “de-risk” without “decoupling” from China, an approach that reflected European and Japanese concerns about pushing Beijing too hard, officials and experts said. – Reuters

State-backed Chinese mouthpiece Global Times called the G7 an “anti-China workshop” on Monday, a day after Beijing summoned Japan’s envoy and berated Britain in a fiery response to statements issued at the group’s summit in Hiroshima. – Reuters

Tom Rogan writes: Sunak’s dual-approach strategy was underlined by his abandonment just before the G7 of a pledge to shutter Chinese Communist Party-linked Confucius Institutes in the U.K. But by attacking Sunak’s comments and warning of ensuing “damage” (read economic coercion) to U.K.-China relations, Beijing is making clear it expects only obedience rather than nuance from its partners. Macron has shown he remains obedient. China will reward him for it. – Washington Examiner

Isaac Kardon and Wendy Leutert write: And China’s continuing expansion in the global ports and maritime transportation industry shows that few countries have been willing to block Chinese firms from operating or acquiring these critical infrastructure assets, despite known security risks. As China seeks greater commercial and military advantage across the world’s oceans, its expansive global network of commercial ports both reflects and amplifies its growing power. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

The specter of the world’s first nuclear attack hung over the weekend’s Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima. World leaders laid wreaths at the memorial in the city, where a plaque reads: “Let all the souls here rest in peace, for we shall not repeat the evil.” – Wall Street Journal

The United States and Papua New Guinea signed a security pact on Monday, sealing a strategic agreement that had been disrupted by President Biden’s decision to cancel a visit to the Pacific island nation to deal with the U.S. debt crisis. – Washington Post

Japan and China are making arrangements to hold a meeting between their defence ministers on the sidelines of an international conference in Singapore next month, Kyodo news agency said on Monday, citing unnamed sources. – Reuters

Narendra Modi has arrived in Sydney for his second Australian visit as India’s prime minister and told local media he wants closer bilateral defense and security ties as China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region grows. – Associated Press

The opening lines to the song that catapulted Billie Eilish to fame are, as it happens, an apt description of Communist China’s new play for Diego Garcia, the secretive Indian Ocean atoll that houses a vital British-American naval base. Situated between the Maldives and Mauritius, it is one of the two most critical American bomber bases in the Indo-Pacific, with impressive port capacities and an airstrip for warplanes capable of overflying key maritime choke points and distant Chinese bases. An oceanic listening post on the former Soviet Union from the south, Diego Garcia is now on Beijing’s wish list. – New York Sun

Walter Russell Mead writes: The message couldn’t be more pointed. While Japan cares about Ukraine and sees a deep connection between Russian action in Europe and Chinese moves in its neighborhood, the Indo-Pacific has replaced Europe as the central theater of global politics. – Wall Street Journal

Miles Yu writes: Taiwan’s soft power and the attractiveness of its way of life threaten the CCP dictatorship, which reckons its people would be much easier to control without the inspiration of their Taiwanese brethren. They know that Taiwanese dreams are the dreams of their own people, too. For this reason as much as any, the millions in Taiwan who harbor aspirations to live perpetually in freedom’s light will never be alone in their homeland’s defense. – Taipei Times

Africa

Sudanese citizens are hoping that yet another internationally backed cease-fire, due to take effect Monday evening, won’t fail like its predecessors after a week that saw a resurgence of ethnic-based violence in the western region of Darfur. – Washington Post

The president of minerals-rich Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, will visit China from May 24 to 29 and is expected to meet President Xi Jinping to review and sign several key trade deals. – Reuters

The United Nations envoy to Sudan warned on Monday of the growing “ethnicisation” of the military conflict that broke out in Sudan last month and the potential impact on neighbouring states. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department on Monday said Russia’s Wagner Group is trying to obscure its efforts to acquire military equipment for use in Ukraine, adding that Washington has been informed the mercenary force is seeking to move those acquisitions through Mali to aid Russia in its war. – Reuters

Ukraine’s foreign minister began a tour of African countries this week, stepping up wartime Kyiv’s diplomatic push to challenge Russian influence in the “Global South” and cement the vision laid out by Ukraine as the only path to peace. – Reuters

The U.N. envoy for Sudan urged the country’s warring generals to honor a seven-day cease-fire that began Monday night, warning the growing ethnic dimension to the fighting risks engulfing Sudan in a prolonged conflict. – Associated Press

With Monday’s Washington-mediated ceasefire in Sudan hardly expected to last, is it time for America to drop failed mediation attempts and instead pick “our SOB”? – New York Sun

Cybersecurity

The European Union slapped Meta with a record $1.3 billion privacy fine Monday and ordered it to stop transferring users’ personal information across the Atlantic by October, the latest salvo in a decadelong case sparked by U.S. cybersnooping fears. – Associated Press

Rheinmetall confirmed on Monday that the Black Basta ransomware group was behind a cyberattack it detected last month. A spokesperson for the German automotive and arms manufacturer told The Record that the company was “continuing to work on resolving” the attack. – The Record

Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander of U.S. Cyber Command, last week released an updated set of strategic priorities for the command that seeks to “own the domain.” These refined priorities address global strategic challenges while enhancing Cybercom’s posture, according to the command. – DefenseScoop

James Rogan writes: The U.S. must unequivocally reject this attempt by the EU to restrain the rapid advance of GenAI by U.S. companies. It must also repudiate the assertion by the EU of extraterritorial legal authority over U.S. companies. The EU cannot attempt to reduce the sovereignty of the U.S. – Washington Examiner