Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The Trump administration believes Iran has growing incentives to pull out of a multibillion-dollar military campaign in Syria as the coronavirus pandemic has ravaged the country, the U.S. State Department’s top official for Iran told Foreign Policy. – Foreign Policy 

The U.S. Navy’s stay-away warning to marine traffic in the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman was intended for Iran, Pentagon officials confirmed on Thursday. – USNI News

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Friday morning that the State of Israel was the greatest threat to international peace and security. – Jerusalem Post

Iran’s top health official appealed to Iranians to avoid travelling during the Eid al-Fitr religious holiday later this month to avoid the risk of a new surge of coronavirus infections, state TV reported on Thursday. – Reuters

As it does every year, the Iranian regime is marking Qods Day – Jerusalem Day – on the last Friday of Ramadan, which in 2020 falls on May 22. This year as well, the call for destroying Israel features prominently in statements by regime officials, who announced that the due to the coronavirus Qods Day marches would be presented via the media and there would be no parades in the streets. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Iran’s foreign minister on Thursday defended an anti-Israel poster shared by the country’s leader that invoked the term “final solution,” after Israeli and US leaders accused him of advocating genocide. – Times of Israel

European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell condemned calls by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for a ‘final solution’ to destroy the State of Israel. – Arutz Sheva

David Horowitz writes: An Iran without “Israel inside,” Singer said, “would make North Korea look advanced and cosmopolitan. Essentially, Iran would go back to the world of 50 years ago, maybe more. It would look like a huge Amish colony in Muslim garb. Meanwhile, it would be party time in the US, Israel, and most of the Arab world.” On the other hand, of course, Iran could acknowledge the centrality of Israeli innovation to the improved functioning and health of society, stop subverting its diminishing resources to the vile cause of wiping us out, and rejoin the family of nations. – Times of Israel

Michael Rubin writes: Khamenei and Zarif are right. Referendums can bring clarity. Surely, if they have confidence both in their popular legitimacy and in the Palestinian people’s willingness to subordinate their desire for freedom to Abbas’s kleptocracy, they would have nothing to fear from allowing their people an internationally supervised referendum. – Washington Examiner

Syria

A Syrian court has placed a temporary travel ban on prominent businessman Rami Makhlouf, a copy of the court order posted on the Ministry of Justice’s Facebook page showed on Thursday, amid a high-profile dispute over his mobile phone company Syriatel. – Reuters 

Iran is slowly pulling out of Syria in response to Israeli strikes, as well as growing domestic discontent linked to the economy and its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the Israeli military said Thursday. – Associated Press 

The camp is one of several in Syria’s war-torn northwest region where makeshift barbers are being set up by the International Association for Relief and Development (ONSUR), part of a project to bring relief to children during the Eid holiday that marks the end of Ramadan. – Reuters

Israel

Israeli sources confirmed Thursday that the Palestinian Authority is making good on its threat to end security coordination with Israel over the new Israeli government’s plans to annex parts of the West Bank. – Times of Israel  

The simmering cyber conflict between Iran and Israel reached a boiling point this week as the two enemies have been going tit-for-tat in an effort to quietly take down critical infrastructure that security analysts dub something of an electronic cold war. – Fox News

The Palestinian Authority (PA) declined a shipment of medical supplies sent by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) via Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport, Palestinian news agency Maan reported Thursday. – Ynet 

A host of Israeli websites have been hacked in a massive, alleged Iranian cyber attack, the Israel National Cyber Directorate said on Thursday. – Ynet

The Northern Command reports it has seen an increase in the number of people trying to illegally cross the border from southern Lebanon to Israel over the past two months. – Ynet

A top Palestinian official said intelligence-sharing with the CIA has ended as a result of Israel’s plan to annex land in the West Bank. – Washington Examiner

Well over a dozen Democratic senators signed a letter this week warning Israel against unilateral annexation of settlements in the occupied West Bank. – Haaretz

Ruthie Blum writes: If his suggestion that Palestinians “end incitement in the West Bank and rocket attacks in Gaza” caused Abbas any ill ease, it was likely fleeting. A presidential hopeful who creates moral parity between Israel and the PA is a lot better than a president actually in the Oval Office whose compass can’t be manipulated by a terrorist in a tie. – Jerusalem Post 

Aryeh Eldad writes: Wherever sovereignty has been applied, creation of a “Palestinian state” becomes impossible, which should be our political, as well as historical, goal. The Arabs currently in power are refusing negotiations. This is a window of opportunity of which Israel can take advantage, to prevent creation of a foreign state in the heart of our homeland. – Jerusalem Post

Avi Issacharoff writes: Encouraged by the words of Jordans’s King Abdullah, who last week warned of “massive conflict” and a possible end to peace should annexation move forward, Palestinian officials are now openly speaking of further desperate measures: even a willingness to collapse and disintegrate their very structures of power in the West Bank if annexation moves forward. – Times of Israel

Chemi Shalev writes: Nonetheless Biden’s warning should give any rational Israeli government pause to reassess whether the jingoistic satisfaction of annexation is worth the potential damage to relations with a future U.S. president. – Haaretz

Ilan Berman writes: And if the Trump administration insists that Israel renege on existing projects involving China (such as the Haifa port), it will need to come up with a serious plan to compensate Jerusalem for the economic penalties and hardships it may incur as a result. Through such steps, the two countries can help safeguard their partnership in the face of what is fast becoming a serious strategic challenge. The historic and strategic nature of U.S.-Israel ties should give both nations every reason to do so. – American Foreign Policy Council

Arabian Peninsula

A United Nations staff member in Yemen died of Covid-19 amid a surge in coronavirus cases, as international agencies warned the pandemic could spiral out of control in one of the world’s most impoverished and war-battered nations. – Wall Street Journal

For years, he was one of Saudi Arabia’s top intelligence officers, an expert in artificial intelligence who played key roles in the kingdom’s fight against Al Qaeda and in its security coordination with the United States. But since 2017, Saad Aljabri has been lying low in Canada, fearing for his life and resisting increasing pressure from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to return to Saudi Arabia, according to his son and associates. – New York Times

Abdullah al-Hamid, an intellectual and human-rights activist whose calls for reforming Saudi Arabia’s monarchy made him one of the kingdom’s most prominent and persistent dissidents and led to frequent prison terms, died on April 24 in detention. He was 69. – New York Times

The family of slain Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi announced Friday they have forgiven his Saudi killers, giving legal reprieve to the five government agents convicted of his murder who’d been sentenced to execution. – Associated Press

Saudi Arabia on Thursday voiced its opposition to the new Israeli government’s plans to annex parts of the West Bank. In a statement quoted by Saudi-owned broadcaster Al Arabiya, the country’s foreign ministry said it rejects unilateral moves and any violations of UN Security Council resolutions, as they could prevent the resumption of peace talks and undermine regional security. – Times of Israel 

Middle East & North Africa

Jordan threatened Thursday to review its relationship with Israel if the Jewish state goes ahead with controversial plans to annex parts of the West Bank. – Agence France-Presse 

Russia is bidding to rescue the collapsing Israel-Palestinian peace process with a proposal for a meeting of major foreign and Middle Eastern powers. – Bloomberg 

On May 16, 2020, newly appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi addressed the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) in a visit to their headquarters. He was received by the government appointee PMU Chairman Falih Al-Fayyadh and other PMU commanders including Kata’ib Hezbollah Commander Abu Fadak, whose militias accused Al-Khadhimi in April of conspiring with the U.S. on killing Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Zvi Bar’el writes: Sissi is careful not to present Egypt as the leading country in the Middle East, but contrary to Saudi Arabia, he is adept at evading problematic arenas such as Syria and Yemen and at avoiding open confrontation with the United States, thereby protecting his status as everyone’s partner. Sissi will lose no sleep over the cost of maintaining that status in terms of human rights in Egypt. – Haaretz

Afghanistan

U.S. special peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has urged a reduction in violence “by all sides” in Afghanistan, saying innocent Afghans are bearing too much of the brunt of the war. – Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty 

The first visit to Kabul by Washington’s peace envoy since Afghanistan’s squabbling political leadership reached a power-sharing agreement comes amid increased violence blamed mostly on an Islamic State affiliate that has been targeted in stepped-up U.S. bombing. – Associated Press

Ashraf ghani remains president of Afghanistan, while his eternal rival for the job, Abdullah Abdullah, who disputes the result of the election held last September, gets yet another consolation prize. That, it seems, is the upshot of a deal finally agreed on May 17th, after months of posturing and haggling, including an absurd moment in March when both men had themselves sworn in. – The Economist

Asia

China’s Communist Party will impose a sweeping national security law in Hong Kong by fiat during the annual meeting of its top political body, officials said Thursday, criminalizing “foreign interference” along with secessionist activities and subversion of state power. – Washington Post

Secret police, surveillance, arbitrary detentions, propaganda in classrooms — all these will be coming to Hong Kong under a far-reaching national security law Beijing is unilaterally imposing on the territory. – Washington Post

China’s plans to impose sweeping new security powers over Hong Kong could inflict even more damage on already fraught relations between Washington and Beijing, and force President Trump into uncomfortable decisions about whether to maintain his self-described friendly ties with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping. – New York Times 

Within a matter of years, however, China began taking steps that eroded the liberties enjoyed by Hong Kong’s 7.5 million people, and the moves have increasingly led to pro-democracy demonstrations and suspicion toward the intent of the Chinese Communist authorities in Beijing. – New York Times

The last time they faced a proposal that would have curbed their autonomy from mainland China, Hong Kong residents flooded the city’s streets, stormed its legislature and clashed with police amid flames and clouds of tear gas. They stared down local leaders, who they said were doing the bidding of Beijing, and ultimately the government relented. But Hong Kong’s pro-democracy opposition movement is now confronting a far mightier foe: Beijing itself. – New York Times

Swastikas were sprayed on a golf course in Melbourne, Australia, founded by Jews nearly seven decades ago because they were not allowed to play at other clubs. – Times of Israel   

Hong Kong’s government said on Friday that plans by Beijing to impose national security legislation in the Chinese-ruled city would not affect its judicial independence or that of its legal entities. – Reuters 

China will encourage the people of Taiwan to join it in opposing the island’s independence and promoting China’s “reunification”, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Friday, a move likely to worsen Beijing’s poor relations with Taipei. – Reuters  

Taiwan urged China on Friday to “sincerely start a dialogue” with people in Hong Kong after China proposed new national security legislation for the former British colony. – Reuters  

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has made an unusually small number of public appearances in the past two months, once again going three weeks without state media reporting his attendance at a public event, according to analysts. – Reuters 

Dennis Rodman has revealed that the world will know “something is wrong” with his pal Kim Jong Un — if the despot’s sister starts getting more face time on TV. – New York Post

Hong Kong’s pro-democracy lawmakers sharply criticized China’s move to take over long-stalled efforts to enact national security legislation in the semi-autonomous territory, saying it goes against the “one country, two systems” framework that promises the city freedoms not found on the mainland. – Associated Press

Editorial: The only way to deter any of this is to make sure Beijing officials know they will pay a heavy price. […]A bipartisan group in the U.S. Congress is advancing legislation that would sanction officials who implement the national-security law. The U.S. will also have to sell more arms to help Taiwan defend itself. Mr. Xi wants the world to think his China is a benign power that follows global rules, but in Hong Kong and Taiwan we are seeing the true nature of the current Communist regime. The world will have to adapt to this increasingly dangerous reality. – Wall Street Journal 

Tom Rogan writes: As a first step, President Trump should issue a clear statement that the U.S. stands with those Hongkongers who will surely now return to the streets. Their struggle for freedom is the same that brought America into being. It matters. – Washington Examiner

Sadaaki Numata writes: Okamoto’s death is a tragic loss for everyone involved in U.S.-Japan affairs at a critical time in the two country’s relations. […]Many in Japan, the United States, and elsewhere wish they could still admire these photographs over glasses of his favorite chilled single-malt whiskey and listen to his insight on how this pandemic will affect the global power balance and Japan’s role in it. – Foreign Policy 

Michael Rubin writes: Rather, by breaking down the border between Hong Kong and China, he may actually expedite the spread of Hong Kong’s dissent. Communist China controls movement, but it cannot quarantine Hong Kong forever. […]The real threat from China remains not its rise, but rather its collapse. Freedom is contagious. Xi’s actions against Hong Kong may, in hindsight, appear like treating a chest wound with a band-aid. – The National Interest

Emil Avdaliani writes: But now U.S. and EU pressure are stoking change in  Georgian minds too. A consensus behind restarting the project is emerging and strengthening. […]Georgia’s unstable politics and economic difficulties could still complicate efforts to build the port. A key indicator of success will be if U.S. engagement continues and intensifies. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Oriana Skylar Mastro writes: The United States should establish a credible deterrent to dissuade China from pursuing greater control over the South China Sea through military means. The United States should do this by improving U.S. force posture in the region and signaling to China the importance to the United States of an open South China Sea and a peaceful resolution of conflicts. – Council on Foreign Relations  

Suzanne Sataline writes: The song’s pull has surprised even the most hardened residents, including Gordon Mathews, an anthropology professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who has studied Hong Kongers’ bonds with Britain and China. […]“The song is really a sense of a national anthem,” Mathews told me. Hong Kong, he continued, “hasn’t had a sense of country before and now it does. And that’s extraordinary.” – The Atlantic

Europe

Tensions between the U.S. and its NATO allies could flare up once again in the near future, as the coronavirus pandemic puts additional pressure on public spending, according to experts. – CNBC 

The UN children’s agency is calling for all parties to the deadly conflict in eastern Ukraine to commit to a cease-fire and end more than six years of fighting, as an increase in shelling has resulted in numerous child casualties and damaged schools since the beginning of the year. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

The European Union and several of its member states may break the bloc’s own guidelines on contacts with de facto authorities of the Russia-annexed Crimean Peninsula by participating in a Moscow-backed videoconference on the situation in the region. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

In what seemed like it may turn into the first diplomatic crisis of his three-day-old career as Israel’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi on Thursday denied having agreed with Hungary on the need to fight illegal immigration, refuting a claim his Hungarian counterpart, Péter Szijjártó, made after their first telephone conversation. – Times of Israel

Alessandra Bocchi writes: Ms. Romano’s story shows why European nations should follow the U.S. policy of refusing to pay ransom for hostages and seek other ways to release captives. More important, the West also needs to regain a strong sense of spiritual purpose to win the long fight the evils of radical Islam. The soul of the West is at stake. – Wall Street Journal 

Sylvie Kauffmann writes: More important, social unity has prevailed so far. Even in divided countries like France, which was scarred by two years of discontent and upheavals, or in Brexiting Britain, Europeans have mostly accepted the enormous constraints imposed by the fight against the disease, while keeping an anxious eye on the protection of public liberties. They now know that we are nowhere near the end of this crisis; mass unemployment looms, and social tensions will flare up again. There will be more moments of truth for Europe. But at least it has survived — for now. – New York Times

Tim Gosling writes: China’s clumsy lobbying efforts have proved effective in Hungary and other countries with illiberal governments that are receptive to its message. It will still have a tougher time in the Czech Republic, where political institutions remain robust and democracy has developed deeper roots. – Foreign Policy 

Mihail Naydenov writes: A single and stronger NATO Eastern Flank requires all members of the European family to serve as an integral part of the Alliance. This means continuing an open-door policy with Black Sea countries aspiring to NATO membership. Ukraine and Georgia should be encouraged to continue on their road to NATO and EU membership and should be supported on defense reform and capability building. There is also value in applying lessons learned from previous Eastern NATO enlargements. – Middle East Institute

Anders Persson writes: A full Israeli annexation will not mean peace but that the conflict will go on, and that the whole Levant will continue to be destabilized for the foreseeable future. It will inevitably mean that Europe’s obsession with the Israeli-Arab conflict will continue. – Jerusalem Post

North America

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday that China doesn’t get that Canada has an independent judicial system and reiterated his charge that Beijing imprisoned two Canadians in retaliation for the arrest of a top Huawei executive. – Associated Press

President Donald Trump pressed for a further reopening of the United States as job losses mount from coronavirus shutdowns, while China’s premier warned of “immense” economic challenges even as the Asian giant emerges from the worst of the pandemic. – Agence France-Presse

A former head of the CIA on Thursday responded to Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty, calling the move “insane.” – The Hill 

J.J. McCullough writes: Canadians have little identity beyond what can be defined through contrast with American flaws, yet their understanding of these flaws tends to be heavily cribbed from U.S. sources. For those who desire a United States that is internally strong and respected abroad, with virtues that are accurately understood and appreciated, a growing danger is not merely that allies like Canada are irrationally anti-American, but that Americans are distressingly eager to encourage them. – Washington Post 

Rep. Ann Wagner writes: The Communist Party’s unconscionable coverup of COVID-19 and systematic human rights violations are killing American citizens within our own borders and unleashing an economic tragedy in our communities not seen since the Great Depression. For the health and safety of Americans and our partners and allies worldwide, the United States has a solemn duty to hold the Communist Party to account. Americans deserve justice. – Washington Examiner

Francis J. Gavin writes: As we navigate the current national and global crisis, and confront great uncertainty about the future, let us be inspired by Howard’s legacy, a combination of modesty, intense curiosity, and penetrating, searching intellect, oriented toward helping decision-makers — something that is increasingly needed today. – War on the Rocks

Cybersecurity

Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg said Thursday he was “pretty confident” his company could help prevent attempts to influence the political outcome of the US presidential election later this year. – Agence France-Presse

Four federal agencies issued a joint alert May 21 warning that cybercriminals and other adversaries are using coronavirus-related lures to scam taxpayers and attempt to disrupt operations of institutions responding to the ongoing pandemic. – Fifth Domain

Jamia Collier writes: It is more useful to first identify the key cyber security challenges a state faces, whether that be fighting cyber crime, protecting the healthcare sector from attacks during a pandemic, or grappling with the issues surrounding offensive cyber operations. Contractors, reservists, private sector collaborators, and conscripts are all ultimately a means to an end. Stakeholder mobilization strategies should therefore be mapped to solutions most appropriate for the challenges at hand. – War on the Rocks 

Missile Defense

President Trump’s new arms-control negotiator is planning to meet with his Russian counterpart soon to discuss a new U.S. proposal for a far-reaching accord to limit all Russian, Chinese and U.S. nuclear warheads, U.S. officials disclosed Thursday. – Wall Street Journal 

The head of the U.S. Space Force said the service recently completed an enterprise review of the military’s missile warning, missile defense architecture and noted he was “extremely pleased” with how it was received by the Joint Requirements Oversight Council. – C4ISRNET 

Kris Osborn writes: A well-armed ship, which is what the emerging structure of the ship clearly seems to be, is consistent with the Navy’s previously articulated plan for the ship, which envisioned a platform that could travel in substantial aggregated combat scenarios such as Carrier Strike Groups and Expeditionary Strike Groups. In addition, it is clear that the service seeks a ship able to function autonomously, control undersea and aerial drones and perform disaggregated or more independent missions. – The National Interest

Trump Administration

The document that greenlighted the FBI’s counterintelligence investigation into the Trump campaign has been unveiled, giving the public a look at a key focus of U.S. Attorney John Durham’s inquiry into the Trump-Russia investigators. – Washington Examiner

Former national security adviser Michael Flynn’s lawyer is joining a call for the transcript of conversations between her client and former Russian Ambassador to the US Sergey Kislyak to be released. – New York Post

The Senate confirmed Kenneth Braithwaite to serve as the next secretary of the Navy, following the November departure of the last confirmed secretary of the sea services. – USNI News