Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

A British-Iranian woman who was granted temporary release from prison in Iran in March amid the coronavirus pandemic has had her furlough extended indefinitely, her family said on Wednesday, raising hopes that she could be granted clemency and return to Britain. – New York Times

Iran dismissed on Thursday new U.S. sanctions on several Iranian officials, saying they were a sign of the complete inefficiency of Washington’s previous sanctions on the Islamic Republic, state television reported. – Reuters 

Iran will support any nation or group that fights Israel, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday, ahead of this week’s annual observance of Quds (Jerusalem) Day to express support for Palestinians. – Reuters  

The wife of an Iranian dissident recently jailed for 16 years has denounced Iran’s Islamist rulers for rejecting her appeals to furlough her sick husband as the coronavirus plagues the nation’s prisons. – VOA News

The depreciation of Iran’s currency against the U.S. dollar has continued in recent days, reaching near all-time lows as the country faces multiple economic challenges. – Radio Farda

Holly Dagres writes: Though Iran has not stated its intentions, and denies engaging in what it calls “cyber warfare,” this latest activity appears to focus on individuals in the Washington think tank community who follow Iran issues closely. […]My experience shows that there is a genuine cyber threat to U.S. institutions. Even amid the covid-19 pandemic, Iran is planning for the future. Allied defenses must be equal to the task. – Washington Post 

Syria

Iran has spent between $20 billion and $30 billion in Syria to prop up President Bashar al-Assad and fight Islamic State, a lawmaker told the semi-official Etemad newspaper, in a rare estimate by a government insider. – Bloomberg 

Thirteen female suspected jihadists from France have escaped from prisons in Kurdish-controlled northern Syria, a Paris-based anti-terror monitor said Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse

Isabel Ivanescu and John Dunford write: The ceasefire in Greater Idlib remains tenuous. Recent force disposition indicates that the Syrian Regime is preparing for a renewed offensive in Southern Idlib Province should the ceasefire break down, but both the timing and likelihood of the offensive’s success remain uncertain and conditions dependent. A renewed regime offensive will require Russian support to sustainably seize territory from anti-Assad forces. However, Russian support will likely be contingent on a new negotiated agreement between Russia and Turkey, and the COVID-19 pandemic will likely delay such negotiations. – Institute for the Study of War 

Tom Rollins writes: Iranian-Russian competition exists in Syria, but can be overstated. At times, some pro-opposition outlets have gone as far as presenting the relationship between the Syrian regime’s two most stalwart allies as something akin to a shadow war, always occurring somewhere just out of view. In the south of Syria, however, it’s probably more accurate to describe it as competition between Iran and Russia waged largely through local proxies representing the allies’ ambitions on the ground. Sometimes they work at cross-purposes, sometimes they do not. – Middle East Institute  

Saudi Arabia

Two Ramadan television dramas on a Saudi-controlled network have stirred controversy as they test public perceptions of quietly warming relations between the Gulf kingdom and Israel. – Agence France-Presse

Saudi Arabia is pushing ahead to complete its first nuclear reactor, according to satellite images that have raised concern among arms-control experts because the kingdom has yet to implement international monitoring rules. – Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia replaced Iraq as the top oil supplier to India in April after a gap of three months as refiners in Asia’s third largest economy were drawn by deep discounts on Saudi crudes, data obtained from sources showed. – Reuters

China

Turn on the TV any evening in China, and you’re likely to see a grim, razor-tongued woman letting it fly at the Trump administration. The diatribes unleashed by Foreign Ministry information chief Hua Chunying are usually ignored in the West, but for China’s people, these are often the only word on the United States that makes it through the heavily censored media. – Washington Post 

Now, Mr. Xi needs to turn his exhortations of resolute unity into action — a theme likely to underpin the National People’s Congress, the annual legislative meeting that opens on Friday after a monthslong delay. He is pushing to restore the pre-pandemic agenda, including his signature pledge to eradicate extreme poverty by this year, while cautioning against complacency that could let a second wave of infections spread. – New York Times 

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday again lashed out at China over the coronavirus pandemic, blaming Beijing for “mass Worldwide killing.” – Agence France-Presse 

Beyond its hard-hitting rhetoric against China over its handling of the coronavirus, the White House has issued a broad-scale attack on Beijing’s predatory economic policies, military buildup, disinformation campaigns and human rights violations. – Associated Press 

The Senate passed by unanimous consent Wednesday a bill that would expel Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges if they continue to deny inspectors access to their audits, ratcheting up the conflict between the two countries. – Politico

Beijing is accelerating its bid for global leadership in key technologies, planning to pump more than a trillion dollars into the economy through the rollout of everything from wireless networks to artificial intelligence. – Bloomberg  

Robert D. Atkinson and Clyde Prestowitz write: Given the United States’ still-indispensable role in defending freedom globally, only it can lead in establishing a DATO. The next administration, whether it be Republican or Democratic, should embrace the idea. Any democratic government, including Taiwan, should be welcome to join, but all must be prepared to take the steps necessary to enact a DATO decision, or lose the right to membership. China is powerful. And under its Communist Party, it is anti-democratic and authoritarian. But it is not invincible. It can be forced to back down if democratic nations stand together. – Washington Post

Abram Shulsky and Blaise Misztal write: Even before the pandemic, there was concern that Chinese lending practices were creating “debt traps,” which might pressure debtor nations to align with Chinese foreign policy ambitions or turn over key resources or facilities. The current financial crisis presents an opportunity to put the spotlight on these practices, to free developing countries from crushing debt and Chinese coercion, and develop new, transparent standards for international lending. – Real Clear Markets 

Asia

Rising tensions between the United States and China brought fresh mudslinging Wednesday as a sharp dispute over responsibility for the coronavirus pandemic spills into new forums such as Taiwan. In the span of several hours, the feud swung from Taipei to Beijing to the Internet, where an animated “credibility test” on Chinese state TV’s Twitter feed mocked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. – Washington Post

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen kicked off her second term by doubling down on her strategy for boosting the island democracy’s ability to resist coercion from China, pledging to further revamp the economy, strengthen the military and deepen ties with friendly countries. – Wall Street Journal 

China said on Thursday U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is “blackmailing” the Hong Kong government with the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act and that Washington’s recent actions amount to blatant interference on China’s internal affairs. – Reuters

Beijing-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) said on Thursday it had approved a $250 million loan to Bangladesh to help the country cope with the coronavirus pandemic. – Reuters 

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Wednesday the U.S. would continue to support Australia in its pursuit of an independent inquiry into the origins of the novel coronavirus pandemic. – Newsweek 

Taiwan’s military announced on 17 May that the entire fleet of Albatross (Ruo Ying) unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in service with the Republic of China Navy (RoCN) will be upgraded to improve the type’s mechanical reliability and operational safety. – Jane’s 360 

Walter Russell Mead writes: Queensland isn’t wrong to want Chinese students. The value of having them on campus goes well beyond money. They bring different and challenging perspectives that other students need to encounter. But the lesson for U.S. college presidents and trustees should be clear: The moral and reputational damage of mishandling a relationship with China can be ruinous. Open debate about topics like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet shouldn’t be suppressed simply because a foreign government objects. And if any students are to be expelled for violations of university standards, it shouldn’t be peaceful protesters, but conscious agents of a foreign police state who abuse their university status to snoop on their peers. – Wall Street Journal

Europe

Greek police, escalating their tough measures against migration, have been rounding up asylum seekers living in the country and forcibly expelling them to Turkey, according to accounts by migrants who have experienced this, lawyers and human-rights activists. – Wall Street Journal 

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said that leaked recordings of phone calls allegedly between Joe Biden and former president Petro Poroshenko would be investigated by the country’s law enforcement agencies, adding that their contents might be “perceived, qualified as treason”. – The Guardian 

Countries should not resort to renationalization and protectionism in response to a “deep global recession” caused by the coronavirus crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday. “It was … clear that multilateralism faced a major challenge even before the pandemic, and this challenge has not become smaller,” said Merkel, two days after she put forward a Franco-German plan for a €500 billion EU recovery fund. – Politico

Hungary and Austria, the sole EU states that opposed sharp criticism of Israel by High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell this week, warned against having a double standard against Israel on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

Europe’s second highest court on Wednesday rejected a challenge by the operators of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines against European Union gas rules, saying it was up individual member states to enforce them. – Reuters

Adam Bienkov writes: What is clear is that with the global economy heading for a deep recession, European governments, public institutions, and companies are increasingly turning toward China for support and investment. And with public opinion toward the US deteriorating in Europe under Trump’s leadership, China’s resurgence could well come at America’s cost. – Business Insider

Maia Sandu writes: After three years in office when he was totally subordinated to Plahotniuc, Dodon has been trying hard to portray himself as a president who is actually in power. He has been trying to please the Kremlin, by praising the (in truth rather modest) support received from Russia to fight the pandemic, while ignoring the much larger assistance coming from the EU and other western partners — and even attacking them. […]For their part, Western partners want to prevent Moldova from hazardous agreements with Russia — but not at any price. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

United States

A U.S. national security panel has ordered the breakup of a joint venture formed between Chinese investors and a California firm that makes exoskeletons, robotic devices that can help disabled people walk but can also help soldiers carry heavy loads. – Wall Street Journal  

A New Jersey township was the focus of a new Justice Department lawsuit on Wednesday that charged its planning board with “religious discrimination” and “antisemitic conduct” toward Orthodox Jewish residents. – Algemeiner

Jose A. Cabranes writes: Puerto Rico’s finances are strained, and the U.S. is too dependent on China for pharmaceuticals. These distinct issues may seem unrelated, but they are very much intertwined. […]Restoring the island’s pharmaceutical production capacity will also ensure the U.S. drug supply is secure, not a bargaining chip in international affairs. Rare it is to have a policy that meets so many goals simultaneously, and attracts support from all sides. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

The Chinese government is eager to become self-sufficient in key technologies amid trade tensions with the U.S. and as the Trump administration seeks to thwart access to semiconductors for China’s Huawei Technologies Co. – Wall Street Journal 

Apple and Google are releasing technology Wednesday to help public health authorities detect the spread of coronavirus infections, though some privacy and public health experts fear the company’s efforts could complicate an already disjointed response to the pandemic. – Politico 

The American Civil Liberties Union said Wednesday it is representing two journalists in challenging Puerto Rico laws that make it a crime to share information about emergencies on the island that the U.S. territory’s government considers “fake news.” – Associated Press 

Multiple Israeli website were the target of a cyberattack on Thursday, their homepages replaced with an anti-Israel video and message in Hebrew and broken English: “The countdown of Israel destruction has begun since a long time ago.” – Jerusalem Post 

Long War

Iraq’s National Intelligence Service late on Wednesday announced it had arrested a possible successor to ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. – The National 

A group of investigators with the Commission for International Justice and Accountability is amassing evidence, hoping to prosecute IS figures for crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide — including Hajji Abdullah. – Associated Press 

Hollie McKay writes: A recent augment in ISIS activities in Africa’s Sahel region has also been documented, not only toward civilians but also against Al Qaeda branches in the area, of which ISIS once cooperated with to wreak havoc. And in the northern African militant stronghold of Libya, the pandemic is said to have bolstered the array of militias — giving them easier passage to bring in weapons and aid for their fighters — although U.S. defense and U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) officials told the Washington Examiner that Russia’s increasing use of shadowy groups in Libya to support Khalifa Haftar poses a greater geopolitical threat than ISIS. – Fox News