Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Mr. Trump’s high-profile trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates, which wrapped up on Friday, resonated widely in Iran. Many Iranians said in phone interviews, social media posts and online town hall discussions that they had watched the tour of the region — the president’s first major international trip of his second term — unfold with a mix of envy, regret and anger at their government. – New York Times

Nuclear talks between Iran and the United States “will lead nowhere” if Washington insists that Tehran drop its uranium enrichment activity to zero, Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takhtravanchi was quoted by state media on Monday as saying. – Reuters

Any deal between the United States and Iran must include an agreement not to enrich uranium, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday, a comment that drew criticism from Tehran. – Reuters

Iran’s foreign ministry summoned the British charge d’affaires in Tehran, state media reported on Monday, over the arrest of Iranian nationals and what it said were “false claims” levelled by Britain against the Islamic Republic. – Reuters

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused Donald Trump on Saturday of lying when the U.S. president said during his Gulf tour this week that he wanted peace in the region. – Reuters

Diplomats from Iran and the three European parties remaining in a moribund 2015 nuclear deal met in Istanbul on Friday, Iranian and British officials said, their first round of talks since the U.S. began nuclear talks with Tehran in April. – Reuters

President Donald Trump on Friday said Iran had a U.S. proposal about its nuclear program and knows it needs to move quickly to resolve a decades-long dispute, but Tehran denied receiving one yet. – Reuters

Iran handed death sentences to three individuals for allegedly participating in fatal shootings at the Shah Cheragh mosque in the southern city of Shiraz, the judiciary’s official news portal Mizan reported on Sunday. – Bloomberg

The police and Shin Bet last month arrested an Israeli citizen suspected of spying for Iran, including on former prime minister Naftali Bennett during a hospital stay. – Times of Israel

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under increasing pressure from across the political spectrum to officially ban Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), especially after several Iranian nationals were arrested in two separate anti-terror operations in Britain. – Iran International 

If there’s a new Iran deal on the table, Republicans are really hoping it’s not the same as the old Iran deal. President Donald Trump’s administration said it has handed Iran a proposal for a nuclear deal in part of its monthslong bid to negotiate on Tehran dismantling its nuclear program. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said it hasn’t received any written proposal yet and called the Trump administration’s stances “confusing and contradictory.” – Politico

Sheila Nazarian writes: The fourth round of talks concluded last weekend between the United States and Iran, and the world is at a critical juncture. Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, is weakened and cornered. The United States is currently in “expert-level” talks with Iran regarding its nuclear program, but this apparent opening comes with danger. This is not the time for diplomatic daydreams or naive resets. This is the moment to finish the job and permanently prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. – Washington Examiner

Syria

The World Bank said on Friday that it had cleared Syria’s $15.5 million debt after payments by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, making the country eligible again for grants to fund reconstruction and economic recovery. – New York Times

Syria’s defence minister has called on small armed groups that have yet to merge with the security apparatus to do so within 10 days or face unspecified measures, in a bid to consolidate state authority six months after Bashar al-Assad was toppled. – Reuters

At least three people were killed when a blast targeted a police station in the eastern Syrian town of Al-Mayadeen on Sunday, the state news agency said, citing a security source. – Reuters

Syria will set up commissions for justice and missing persons tasked with probing crimes committed during the rule of the Assad family, compensating victims and finding thousands of people whose whereabouts remain unknown, the presidency said. – Reuters

Syrian security forces raided Islamic State hideouts in Aleppo on Saturday and three militants were killed, authorities said, the first time the Islamist-led government has announced such an operation against the jihadist group in Syria’s second city. – Reuters

Syria plans to print a newly-designed currency in the UAE and Germany instead of Russia, three sources said, reflecting rapidly improving ties with Gulf Arab and Western states as a move to loosen U.S. sanctions offers Damascus new opportunities. – Reuters

The World Bank said on Friday it had cleared Syria’s $15.5 million in outstanding debt after receiving payments from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, making the country eligible for millions of dollars in grants for reconstruction and budget support. – Reuters

In a move unprecedented since the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011, Syrian Defense Minister Gen. Marhaf Abu Qasra met Thursday with an official British delegation led by political advisor Charles Smith to explore ways of supporting the reconstruction of the Syrian Army and enhancing stability in the country and the broader region. – Jerusalem Post

US President Donald Trump said Friday that he did not consult with Israel about Washington’s decision to recognize the new Syrian government, despite Jerusalem’s deep suspicion of Syria’s Islamist ruler, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who spearheaded the ouster in December of Iran-backed president Bashar al-Assad. – Times of Israel

Editorial: President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria was a smart gamble for a president with historic ambitions. On Tuesday in Saudi Arabia, Trump announced that he will lift all sanctions on Syria, many of which have been in place for decades. Then, on Wednesday, he met Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa, the first encounter between an American president and a Syrian counterpart in a quarter-century. Though not without risks, Trump’s move to normalize relations between the United States and the war-torn country could secure long-term strategic interests and reshape a region long beset by chaos. – Washington Examiner

Lebanon

A large group of civilians wielding metal rods and axes attacked a patrol of U.N. troops in southern Lebanon on Friday, causing damage to U.N. vehicles but no injuries, a United Nations peacekeeping force said. – Reuters

A well-known Hezbollah-affiliated singer will be tried for allegedly spying on the terror group for Israel, Arab media reported on Friday. Mohammad Hadi Saleh’s court proceedings began on Wednesday, following his arrest a few weeks ago. Military investigative judge Fadi Sawan will be presiding over the trial, French media L’Orient-Le Jour reported, citing a judicial source. – Jerusalem Post

The Israel Defense Force said Saturday that it killed a Hezbollah commander in a drone strike in Lebanon. Local authorities also confirmed one person had been killed. – Times of Israel

Gulf States

President Trump elevated Persian Gulf monarchies in his four-day swing through the Middle East, eroding at least for now the centrality of America’s decadeslong alliance with Israel. His embrace of leaders in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates stood out as Trump bypassed Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom he has turned more distant in recent months. – Wall Street Journal

Look at the chief economic and strategic spots across Africa — ports for key trade corridors, mines that produce critical minerals, large renewable energy projects — and you will find the United Arab Emirates. As the United States and, to a lesser extent, China reduce their investment, aid and presence on the African continent, the Emirates is using its enormous wealth and influence to fill the void. – New York Times

The United Arab Emirates plans to raise its energy investments in the United States to $440 billion in the next decade, it said on Friday, boosting U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to secure major business deals on a Gulf tour. – Reuters

Gideon Lichfield writes: But he doesn’t believe in climate change, doesn’t like immigrants, and doesn’t care about science or the environment. (Some reform on energy permits, at least, is on the way.) So he’s using AI offshoring as an easy fix. The chip makers will celebrate the boost to their sales, and Trump will enjoy making Middle Eastern rulers more beholden to him. But geopolitical alliances are fickle things. The long-term cost of these deals could be to weaken America’s AI primacy. – Bloomberg

Robert Satloff writes: For me, the key is what it says about the Gulf. It was just a blink in historical time that these countries were technological backwaters. Who would have thought that they – not Singapore, not Taiwan – now sit at the cutting edge of the most transformative technology of our era, artificial intelligence. How this will impact these still heavily traditional societies is one of the great social-cultural questions facing the Middle East today. – Washington Institute

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s conservative presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo said on Monday he was willing to discuss sharing more of the cost of stationing the U.S. military in the country, which U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded over the years. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised drills by the nation’s air force and underscored the need for a step-up in war preparation, state media said on Saturday. Kim, who inspected anti-aircraft combat and air strike drills by North Korea’s 1st Air Division on Thursday, called for “all units in the entire military” to bring about “a breakthrough in war preparation”, KCNA reported. – Reuters

South Korea’s ousted former President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Saturday that he is leaving the conservative People Power Party (PPP), according to his Facebook post. The announcement comes as PPP’s presidential candidate is badly trailing liberal Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung in the polls before the June 3 snap election. – Reuters

South Asia

At least 27 people were killed, including 11-year old twins, and more than 50 injured in the Indian-administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir over four days of fighting between India and Pakistan. The sudden violence was the worst to hit the contested region in decades and, as in previous rounds of conflict, civilians bore the heaviest cost. – Washington Post

When Pakistani officials last week told Beijing’s diplomats that its Chinese-made jets and missiles had downed several Indian aircraft, including French warplanes, the response was quiet jubilation. After many years and billions spent in development, their arms were finally tested in battle — and delivered. – Washington Post

Pakistan’s military said on Sunday that it expected a fragile calm along the border with India to hold, as senior officers from both countries continue to talk on a direct line after the region was jolted by four days of missile attacks and airstrikes. – New York Times

The United Nations has called for an investigation into “credible reports” that Indian authorities rounded up Rohingya refugees and expelled them, in some cases by putting them into the Andaman Sea off the shore of the same country they had escaped from, fearing persecution and death. – New York Times

The news reports chronicled India’s overwhelming successes: Indian attacks had struck a Pakistani nuclear base, downed two Pakistani fighter jets and blasted part of Pakistan’s Karachi port, the country’s oil and trade lifeline. Each piece of information was highly specific, but none of it was true. – New York Times

Pakistan has been mired for years in overlapping political, economic and security crises. But right now, it is feeling like a winner. Its government has declared victory in Pakistan’s most expansive military clash with India in more than 50 years. Political parties and ordinary Pakistanis have staged rallies to celebrate the armed forces’ performance. – New York Times

Britain is working with the U.S. to ensure a ceasefire between India and Pakistan endures and that “confidence-building measures” and dialogue take place, foreign minister David Lammy said on Saturday. – Reuters

The Indian space agency’s mission to launch into orbit a new Earth observation satellite failed after the launch vehicle encountered a technical issue during the third stage of flight, officials said Sunday. – Associated Press

A car bomb exploded near a market in Pakistan’s restive southwest, killing four people and wounding 20 others, a government official said Monday, as violence intensifies in the region. – Associated Press

India imposed curbs on imports of ready-made garments and processed food from Bangladesh, as relations between the two neighbors turned sour in recent months. – Bloomberg

Andy Mukherjee writes: But if the comment was also a hint to the White House to stop injecting itself into South Asia’s long-running feud, then the suggestion has fallen on deaf ears. Trump quipped in Riyadh that Modi and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif might as well “go out and have a nice dinner together.” This creates problems for India. As its foreign minister said, bilateral talks with Pakistan can only be about terrorism. Does the US president not know that his bluster is making the Modi administration look weak? Or is that the goal — to put New Delhi in a corner and force it to wrap up a trade deal advantageous to Washington? – Bloomberg

Europe

The mayor of Romania’s capital of Bucharest won the country’s presidential election, placing a staunch pro-European politician in power and capping months of political instability. Nicusor Dan, a centrist, claimed victory in Sunday’s election over a far-right candidate, George Simion, who had praised President Trump and promised to “Make Romania Great Again.” – Wall Street Journal

Top officials from the European Union and Britain are gathering in London on Monday, as the two allies pivot toward a post-Brexit future. The gathering has been billed as a major reset of relations, and it is being especially closely watched given the context: Both Europeans and the British are trying to figure out how to reorient themselves in a world where America is a less reliable ally on defense and trade. – New York Times

Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, appeared on Sunday to have eked out a narrow win in the first round of Poland’s presidential election, a vote seen as pivotal as the government seeks to unwind hard-right policies put in place by a previous administration. – New York Times

Three Iranian men appeared in court on Saturday in London, accused of helping Iran’s intelligence service by targeting individuals in Britain. They are also accused of carrying out surveillance and reconnaissance as part of a plan to commit serious violence against an individual, who was not identified. – New York Times

The European Union and Britain reached a tentative agreement on defence and security, fisheries and youth mobility ahead of a EU-UK summit on Monday, paving the way for British firms to participate in large EU defence contracts, EU officials said. – Reuters

EU countries have in principle agreed on the proposals for a 150 billion euro ($168.3 billion) fund aimed at boosting Europe’s defence, known as Security Action for Europe (SAFE), an EU diplomat said on Monday. – Reuters

Portugal’s ruling centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) won a snap parliamentary election on Sunday but again fell short of the majority needed to end a long period of instability as the far-right Chega gained a record share of the vote. – Reuters

Lionel Laurent writes: The stage has been set for a rapprochement between the UK and European Union, as the bad blood of the Brexit years morphs into a high-stakes hunt for allies in a region squeezed by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. But talk of a “reset” looks overblown, judging by some of the political scars that have yet to fully heal. Not to mention some big red lines. – Bloomberg

Aron Lund writes: As ceasefire talks take center stage, European nations should prepare for the high risk that brief ceasefires will breed flare-ups of intensified conflict. In so doing, they should consider the maritime dimension and the effects of a de-escalation on Turkey’s interpretation of the Montreux Convention. […] Meanwhile, it is time to figure out how to best help Kyiv ensure that any new naval escalation by Russia in the Black Sea ends like the first one did — shipwrecked against Ukraine’s grit and ingenuity. – War on the Rocks

The Americas

Geopolitical tension is fueling interest in Brazil’s minerals. After the U.S. set new tariffs on China last month, China tightened restrictions on the export of rare-earth materials, worrying U.S. manufacturers including Tesla and redoubling their hunt for non-China alternatives. Exports of rare earths restarted this month for some companies. – Wall Street Journal

Their news site had just exposed details of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s alleged deals with the country’s gangs. Now the three journalists were faced with a choice they had long dreaded. El Faro — Spanish for lighthouse — is the premier independent investigative news outlet in El Salvador. The staff had received word that Bukele’s increasingly authoritarian government might be preparing warrants to arrest seven of its journalists. – Washington Post

Argentine President Javier Milei’s government received a show of support on Sunday as candidates he has endorsed took the lead in a legislative election in the city of Buenos Aires. – Reuters

Nicaragua’s National Assembly approved a constitutional amendment on Friday to eliminate dual citizenship in a move that would impact thousands of people, including government opponents. – Reuters

Tensions flared in Bolivia’s administrative capital La Paz on Friday as supporters of former President Evo Morales gathered outside the electoral court, demanding his reinstatement as a candidate in this year’s presidential race. – Reuters

Colombia’s government has applied to join a China-based development bank, another sign of Latin America’s drift away from the U.S. as the Trump administration’s foreign aid cuts, trade barriers and crackdown on immigration spurs many leaders in the region to seek closer ties with Washington’s geopolitical rival. – Associated Press

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: As Diogo Costa, president of the Foundation for Economic Education in Atlanta and the former head of Brazil’s National School of Public Administration, puts it: “When it comes to building infrastructure, Brazil’s problem isn’t money. It’s execution.” That’s true for most of Latin America, where transparency and the rule of law are foreign concepts, and piling on Chinese debt will inflict more pain. It isn’t too late for the U.S. to push back by re-engaging commercially. – Wall Street Journal

United States

Former President Joe Biden has been diagnosed with prostate cancer just months after he left office, his representatives said Sunday. Biden received the diagnosis of prostate cancer with metastasis to the bone after he was experiencing increasing urinary symptoms. – Wall Street Journal

Congressional Democrats are seeking to block more than $3 billion in proposed weapons sales to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates that were announced during President Trump’s visit to the Middle East this week. – New York Times

A bomb exploded near a reproductive health facility in Palm Springs, California, on Saturday, killing one person and injuring at least four in an incident the FBI called an “intentional act of terrorism”. – Reuters

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will attend the Group of Seven finance leaders’ meeting in Canada next week and will seek to refocus the group on addressing trade imbalances and non-market economic practices, a Treasury spokesperson said on Sunday. – Reuters

A Mexican Navy sailing ship festooned with lights and a giant flag crashed into the landmark Brooklyn Bridge on Saturday night, shearing the top of its masts, killing two people and injuring several others, New York City Mayor Eric Adams said. – Reuters

A 39-year-old woman is the first Mexican national to be indicted in the United States on charges of providing material support to a cartel designated as a foreign terrorist organization, the U.S. Department of Justice said on Friday, citing Texas court documents. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill, which had been stalled for days by Republican infighting over spending cuts, won approval from a key congressional committee on Sunday in a rare victory for Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson. – Reuters

Editorial: The coverup of Mr. Biden’s mental decline will go down as one of the great scandals of modern politics. By refusing to admit what voters could so clearly see, Democrats denied their party an open primary. Once Mr. Biden imploded, they handed Kamala Harris the nomination without debate. Had Mr. Biden bowed out in 2023, Republicans might also have been more open to nominees other than Mr. Trump. Instead, Democrats turned to lawfare in an attempt to disqualify Mr. Trump, which solidified his hold on GOP voters. Democrats and the press are now appalled by Mr. Trump’s second term. They would do better to think upon, and seek contrition for, their own role in making it possible. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Ronald Reagan won the Cold War with a combination of realism and American idealism. He built American hard power and was willing to engage the Soviets, but he also wasn’t afraid to tell the truth about their crushing of freedom in Russia, Eastern Europe and beyond. In his desire to repudiate his domestic opponents, Mr. Trump would do well to avoid disdaining American values. They are still admired by the people who flock to our shores. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Qatar has more to gain from giving the plane than the United States has in taking it. During one of their 2016 debates, Trump ripped Hillary Clinton over the Clinton Foundation’s accepting a contribution from Qatar because of the way the country treats women and children. In 2017, during his first term, Trump criticized Qatar as having “historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level” when Saudi Arabia and four other countries in the region boycotted Qatar over its support for Islamists and its ties to Iran. Trump has changed his tune, and Qatar is already getting a great return on the investment it is trying to make. Only Congress can stop this from happening. – Washington Post

Defense

The Space Force this week announced a new Joint Antenna Marketplace aimed at helping it leverage commercial capacity and relieve the strain on its Satellite Control Network. – Defense News

The Army plans to accelerate the delivery of its first production-representative Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft to soldiers in 2028 by moving into low-rate production while still testing prototypes, Col. Jeffrey Poquette, the service’s FLRAA program manager, told Defense News. – Defense News

The Coast Guard is preparing to cut up to 12 flag officer positions over the next seven months, according to a memo issued by the acting commandant of the service. – USNI News

President Donald Trump has withdrawn the nomination of retired Air Force Lt. Col. Michael Jensen to be assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, according to a notice posted on Congress.gov. – Defensescoop 

Taylor Hathorn writes: The American warfighter is ready to pick up their arms. In only a few months, they’ve transformed what many saw as a stagnant, struggling force, focused too heavily on separating warfighters by race, gender, creed and religion, into a motivated, mission-ready military. The American warfighter is no longer forgotten. They are fired up, locked in and ready to lead again. This isn’t just a military comeback — it’s a comeback for every American who believes that peace comes through strength, and who holds a unified belief that our service members deserve leadership that not only respects but supports their sacrifice, and fuels their success. – The Hill