Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip killed more than 100 people Thursday, the enclave’s civil defense force said, the latest in a string of deadly bombardments that have escalated this week as President Donald Trump sidesteps Israel on his multi-stop tour of the Middle East. – Washington Post

Israel’s military killed five Palestinian militants in the occupied West Bank on Thursday, hours after a pregnant settler was killed in a shooting, as hardline pro-settler leaders including a government minister called for Palestinian towns to be razed. – Reuters

President Donald Trump on Thursday reiterated his desire to take over the Gaza Strip, telling a business roundtable in Qatar that the U.S. would “make it a freedom zone” and arguing there was nothing left to save in the Palestinian territory. – Reuters

The Israeli military intercepted a missile launched by Yemen’s Houthis on Thursday following alarms that sounded in several areas of Israel, the army said in a statement. – Reuters

The United Nations said on Thursday it will not take part in a U.S.-backed humanitarian operation in Gaza because it is not impartial, neutral or independent, while Israel pledged to facilitate the effort without being involved in aid deliveries. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday that Washington is troubled by the humanitarian situation in Gaza. – Reuters

Some global airlines have again halted their flights to and from Tel Aviv after a missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels towards Israel on May 4 landed near the country’s main international airport. – Reuters

Hamas said it freed American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander based on an understanding with the US that humanitarian assistance would return to Gaza and negotiations to end the war start immediately. – Bloomberg

The United Nations for the first time is declaring May 15 “Nakba day,” even as the spokesman for Secretary-General Guterres attempted Thursday to deny that the word is part of the official language of the world body. – New York Sun

Gazan journalists face beatings and threats while covering anti-Hamas protests and dissent in the Strip, forcing them to self-censor to ensure their safety, the Committee to Protect Journalists reported Thursday. – Times of Israel

At a special United Nations Security Council session in New York, Israel’s UN envoy, accompanied by two parents of slain hostages held by Hamas terrorists, urged the council to uphold its commitment to ensure the return of missing persons in armed conflicts to their loved ones. – Times of Israel

After a handshake between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and U.S. President Donald Trump, Israel is shifting its stance toward the new Syrian regime, softening its tone toward Damascus. – Ynet

A senior member of Hamas’ political bureau, Basem Naim, told Britain’s Sky News that the terror group is holding “peace talks” directly with the United States concerning the future of the Gaza Strip. – Ynet

Yaakov Lappin writes: He also said continued PA control over Area A in Judea and Samaria (territory under Palestinian Arab administrative authority) would allow Israel to avoid the need to directly rule over the Palestinian Arab population living there. He added, “I remind you that just 30, 40, 50 years ago, Israel was not an established fact. And as time goes by, it has become one. For me, that is the plan: a strong State of Israel and no other state between the sea and the river.” – Arutz Sheva

David M. Weinberg writes: Pundits and politicians gleefully pattered on all week about Israel being downgraded. They could barely disguise their schadenfreude at Netanyahu’s supposed sidelining. They purposefully misconstrued Trump’s diplomacy to pile on Bibi yet again. Don’t believe it. Instead, demand that the Israeli government act expeditiously to take advantage of the strategic windows of opportunity that President Trump holds open for Israel and the region. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky authorized the first direct peace talks with Russia in three years, aiming to persuade President Trump that he was sparing no effort to end the war. – Wall Street Journal

Russia has struck 25 hotels near Ukraine’s front lines from the beginning of the war in 2022 through March in what appears to be a campaign to discourage journalism in the area, according to a report by the media rights group Reporters Without Borders and a Ukrainian organization, Truth Hounds. – Washington Post

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Thursday that its forces seized two more settlements in their drive through eastern Ukraine, but Kyiv made no such acknowledgement and its top commander said battles raged over 1,100 km of the front line. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday the only way a breakthrough will happen in the efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine would be through direct talks between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, after Moscow sent a second-tier team to talks in Turkey. – Reuters

As Russian President Vladimir Putin explores a potential peace settlement to end the war in Ukraine, hawkish anti-Western nationalists at home are waging a campaign to keep the conflict going. – Reuters

Vladimir Medinsky, the head of Russia’s delegation at peace talks on Ukraine in Turkey, said on Thursday that Moscow’s aim was to secure a long-lasting peace with Kyiv by looking for common ground and removing the reasons for the conflict. – Reuters

Russia’s position on a possible peace deal with Ukraine has changed to reflect changes on the frontlines where Russia has been advancing, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday a proposed meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin could be skipped if an agreement on a ceasefire between the two countries is agreed during technical talks in Istanbul. – Reuters

Editorial: Mr. Trump could also announce his support for more military aid for Ukraine. Then when Mr. Trump finally meets with Mr. Putin, Ukraine and Mr. Trump will be negotiating from a far stronger position. Peace through strength, someone once called it. – Wall Street Journal

Max Hastings writes: If Trump halts military aid, Ukraine is doomed. Such a move would signal a renunciation of the values for which the US has stood guardian almost since the Founding Fathers. Yet it is unsurprising if Zelenskiy, one of the most remarkable national leaders to emerge from the 21st century, has trouble sleeping at night. – Bloomberg

Andrei Yakovlev, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, and Yuri Danilov write: For the United States and its allies, there is not much time left to steer Russia from its current path. So far, the West has failed to present a compelling postwar vision for Russia and a plan to achieve it—one that is realistic internationally and that can directly appeal to Russians themselves. […] But if current trends are allowed to continue, Europe may soon encounter a completely militarized autocracy on its borders that is similar to North Korea’s in structure, and far more dangerous. And the United States might have to countenance a military union between Russia and China. – Foreign Affairs

Paul Jones writes: Limited US investments in Ukraine’s remaining defense gaps — paired with Kyiv’s commitment to repay support through long-term critical minerals supply under the US-Ukraine Critical Minerals Agreement — represent a high-return, low-cost national security strategy. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Elina Beketova writes: Ukraine has called on international partners to condemn Russia’s decree as a clear violation of international law and to impose tougher sanctions, including on individuals. They have also asked the International Criminal Court to treat the decree as evidence of war crimes. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Turkey

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Thursday that Turkey expects the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia to fulfil a deal the group agreed with the Syrian government, under which it is to integrate into Syria’s armed forces. – Reuters

President Tayyip Erdogan told Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Ankara on Thursday that Turkey was ready to host him and Russia’s Vladimir Putin for peace talks “when they are ready”, his office said. – Reuters

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Thursday he will discuss the U.S. decision to lift sanctions on Syria and the roadmap ahead in a meeting with his U.S. and Syrian counterparts later in the day. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

Three days in the Middle East have put President Trump’s bromance diplomacy on full display. “I like you too much,” Trump told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, later placing his hand on his heart as the two men bid farewell on the airport tarmac. – Wall Street Journal 

The United States targeted two senior Hezbollah officials and two financial facilitators with new sanctions on Thursday for their role in coordinating financial transfers to the Iran-backed group, the Treasury Department said. – Reuters

Ameer al-Kaabi and Michael Knights write: Meanwhile, so-called “independents” like Kilabi are pulling free of their original benefactors (in his case, Badr) and making their own calculations ahead of the election, seemingly distancing themselves from Sudani for now. Interestingly, none of these actors are calling on their political godfather Abdulmahdi or their patrons in Iran to play peacemaker in these dramas, probably because there is still a lot of time to kiss and make up before the election, and because Tehran is not keen to see Sharaa in Baghdad either. – Washington Institute

Michael Hirsh writes: The meeting this week between a U.S. president who doesn’t care a fig for democracy and a former anti-American jihadist who is swiftly discovering that democracy isn’t likely to work in his country—war-torn Syria—amounted to more than a stunning optic. It also felt like a huge farewell—a valediction for an entire generation of failed U.S. policy in the Mideast. – Foreign Policy

South Asia

Pakistanis were jubilant this week, viewing the ceasefire with India as a resounding military victory. Amid the celebrations, the country’s opposition leaders posed a pointed question: If Pakistan’s generals can reach a truce with their archrivals, then why not with them? – Washington Post

India’s defence minister said on Thursday that the International Atomic Energy Agency should take charge of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, days after the nuclear-armed neighbours ended their worst military conflict in nearly three decades. – Reuters

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Thursday he was ready to engage in peace talks with India, days after the nuclear-armed neighbours ended their worst military conflict in nearly three decades. – Reuters

President Donald Trump said India has made an offer to drop tariffs on US goods, as the Asian nation negotiates a deal to avert higher import taxes. – Bloomberg

W.J. Hennigan writes: This week tensions between India and Pakistan eased after the truce. But the White House cannot grow complacent. It should lead a diplomatic effort with India and Pakistan to reduce risks in the short and long term to avoid a repeat of last week’s rapid escalation and potential for miscalculation. – New York Times

Europe

The European Union wants a trade deal with the U.S. that sees a larger reduction in tariffs than negotiations with the U.K. and China have so far yielded, officials from the bloc said Thursday. – Wall Street Journal

The police in Britain on Thursday charged a man with arson in connection with three fires, including two at properties linked to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. – New York Times

Vice President JD Vance will lead a U.S. delegation to attend the inaugural Mass on Sunday of Pope Leo XIV, the first U.S. pontiff, who was critical of President Donald Trump and Vance before taking leadership of the global Roman Catholic Church. – Reuters

Germany and its allies will move to confiscate frozen Russian assets if legally possible, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in an interview with the Zeit newspaper published on Thursday. – Reuters

Poles vote in a presidential election on Sunday that the pro-European government in Warsaw says can revive its stalled democratic drive and its nationalist opponents see as a chance to set Poland on a path inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

Britain is talking with several countries to host rejected asylum seekers as they wait to be deported, the U.K. prime minister said Thursday. – Associated Press

The leaders of 47 European countries and organizations will gather Friday for a one-day summit in the Albania’s capital to discuss security and defense challenges across the continent, with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine at the top of the agenda. – Associated Press

The Italian and Albanian prime ministers plan to hold their first high-level intergovernmental summit in Italy by the end of the year, according to a draft joint statement seen by Bloomberg News. – Bloomberg

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said his country is prepared to move toward spending 5% of its economic output on defense, backing a goal pushed by US President Donald Trump for NATO members and underscoring the new Berlin government’s more aggressive stance on the military. – Bloomberg

The Americas

El Paso immigration judge Michael S. Pleters was incredulous. He had expected to hear a request from Henrry Albornoz Quintero for political asylum in the U.S., but though the Venezuelan had been held by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he was absent the day of his April hearing. – Wall Street Journal

The Senate on Thursday rejected a resolution written by Democrats that would have required that the Trump administration tell Congress what steps it has taken to comply with court orders involving U.S. deportees imprisoned in El Salvador and to report on the country’s human rights record. – New York Times

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum spoke by phone with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Mexican government said on Thursday in a post on social media. – Reuters

Canada’s new agriculture minister, Heath MacDonald, said in an interview on Thursday that tackling trade issues with China and the United States are his most pressing priorities. – Reuters

Nathalye Cotrino writes: Without American support to bolster the international response, Port-au-Prince’s collapse may be inevitable. The window for an effective international response is rapidly closing — the time for decisive action is now. – The Hill

Cybersecurity

The Trump administration is ramping up attacks on Europe’s digital rules, opening a new front in Washington’s pressure campaign on longtime allies that combines assertions of defending free speech with efforts to protect commercial interests. – Wall Street Journal

Malicious actors are using text messages and AI-generated voice messages to impersonate senior U.S. officials in a scheme to gain access to the personal accounts of state and federal government officials, the FBI said on Thursday. – Reuters

Two sprawling digital black markets operating on the communications platform Telegram have been removed, the service said on Thursday. – Reuters

Over the past few years, cybersecurity experts have increasingly said that nation-state operatives and cybercriminals often blur the boundaries between geopolitical and financial motivations. A new report released Wednesday shows how North Korea has flipped that idea on its head. – Cyberscoop

The Department of Homeland Security won’t tell Congress how many employees at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency it has fired or pushed to leave, a top congressional Democrat said Wednesday. – Cyberscoop

Kelsey Quinn writes: The time for incremental adjustments and half-measures has passed. If America fails to respond comprehensively to this challenge, the consequences will extend far beyond economic metrics to the very nature of global order in the 21st century. The choice is stark — transform our approach to technological development or cede leadership to an authoritarian rival whose values fundamentally conflict with our own. – National Interest