Fdd's overnight brief

May 13, 2025

In The News

Israel

Israel has asked judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) to withdraw arrest warrants against its prime minister and defence minister while the ICC reviews Israeli challenges to its jurisdiction over the conduct of the Gaza war. – Reuters

An Israeli-American hostage was released from 19 months of captivity in Gaza during a brief pause in fighting on Monday and reunited with his family, but Israeli strikes on the battered enclave soon resumed. – Reuters

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog called on the international community to help with its new plan to distribute aid directly to the people of Gaza and cut out Palestinian group Hamas from the process. – Reuters

Israeli officials have put a brave face on U.S. President Donald Trump bypassing them on a Middle East trip this week, but his decision to do so is the latest to sow doubt in Israel about where it stands in Washington’s priorities. – Reuters

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has lifted on Monday a ban imposed on operations of Qatar’s Al Jazeera television in the territory, with the broadcaster set to resume operations on Tuesday, the network’s bureau chief in Palestine Walid Omary said. – Reuters

Israel is set to send a hostage deal negotiating team to Doha on Tuesday, the Prime Minister’s Office announced Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a call with coalition party chiefs on Monday, reportedly trying to assure them that Israel wasn’t going to agree to end the war before Hamas is defeated after he agreed to a request from the Trump administration to send a negotiating team to Doha in order to jumpstart long-stalled hostage negotiations with the terror group. – Times of Israel

Following Monday’s emotional release by Hamas of an American-born Israeli soldier, Edan Alexander, the freed man and his family on Wednesday or Thursday will be flown to Doha, where President Trump and Emir Tamim bin Hamad al Thani will celebrate the deal that led to his release. – New York Sun

Editorial: As in January, new pressure on Hamas now has a chance to free hostages, as Israel is poised to act on Mr. Trump’s pledge of “hell to pay.” The obstacle is Hamas’s hope, kindled by the rising influence of its Qatari patrons, that Mr. Trump will suddenly adopt the Biden approach and turn on Mr. Netanyahu in the clutch. Rather than fly Mr. Alexander to Qatar to meet Mr. Trump, as the Trump team has proposed, why doesn’t the President add a stop in Israel to celebrate Mr. Alexander’s freedom? Hamas would get the message. – Wall Street Journal

David Harsanyi writes: It should be said that ideological bias doesn’t prevent a journalist from making arguments that rely on facts. It is implausible, however, that any genuine journalist could possibly believe ProPublica’s Thurman story was well reported or that Mr. Abu Toha’s essays enlightened anyone. And the fact that Pulitzers reward this kind of transparent hackery only further destroys their already battered credibility. – New York Sun

Toby Dershowitz and Eitan Fischberger write:  In another booklet called “Do Muslims Scare You: A Guide for Journalists”, for which he served as editor, Khamaiseh advises reporters to “connect Islamophobia with anti-Semitism and other forms of racism”. […] Khamaiseh would do well to check his own words for these red flags. And those journalists and media outlets that collaborate with Al Jazeera Media Institute should check the myriad red flags associated with their collaboration. – Courage Media

Iran

Iran is preparing for a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iran’s government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani was quoted by Russia’s state RIA news agency as saying on Monday. – Reuters

Iran’s foreign minister warned Britain, France and Germany on Monday that a decision to trigger a U.N. mechanism reimposing sanctions on Tehran could lead to an irreversible escalation of tensions. – Reuters

A mid ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States, an Iranian lawmaker has called on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to reconsider the country’s nuclear weapons ban should talks fail to yield sanctions relief, according to state media. – Newsweek

Russia and Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelensky asked President Trump to join potential peace talks in Turkey this week as the Ukrainian president continues his campaign to ratchet up pressure on Russian leader Vladimir Putin to agree to a cease-fire. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer to join proposed Ukraine-Russia peace talks triggered a flurry of diplomacy as powers from Europe to the Middle East sought a possible path out of the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War Two. – Reuters

The U.N. aviation council on Monday ruled that Russia was responsible for the downing of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine that killed all 298 passengers and crew, including 196 Dutch citizens and 38 Australian citizens or residents, the Dutch and Australian governments said in separate statements. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan spoke on Monday to discuss Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin’s proposal to hold direct Russian-Ukrainian talks this week in Turkey, the Russian ministry said. – Reuters

Russia is “completely ignoring” a 30-day ceasefire proposed by Ukraine and European powers that was to have begun on Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said. – Reuters

Dr. Igor Anokhin and Spencer August Faragasso write: Despite the majority of the drones being downed, an overall rate of 12.5 percent reaching their target is significant. […] Only a small number of the drones are required to survive the journey to cause great damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and other targets, and this fits precisely into Russia’s strategy in using the drones. The drones are mass-produced and are inexpensive compared to ballistic missiles and other weapon systems, meaning they can be readily expended. – Institute for Science and International Security

Syria

President Donald Trump said on Monday that he may ease U.S. sanctions on Syria in response to a query from his Turkish counterpart. – Reuters

Instability in Syria could pose security risks for Europe, according to a draft internal EU counter-terrorism document seen by Reuters warning that the overall terror threat level remains high. – Reuters

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will not attend the Arab League Summit in Baghdad this weekend, Syrian state media said on Monday, after Iraq’s invitation spurred controversy over the rebel-turned-leader’s potential return to a country where he fought and was jailed. – Reuters

Turkey

Hours after the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) announced it was disbanding its armed wing, families gathered outside an office in the Turkish city of Diyarbakir, many with tears in their eyes and photos in their hands. – Reuters

Recent political events in Turkey stymied the country’s path to slowing inflation and the fallout affected the economy as well as foreign exchange reserves, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s chief economist said. – Reuters

Robert Ellis writes: However, the question arises as to whether Turkey’s move towards becoming a fully fledged autocracy, as well as its occupation of northern Cyprus and ambivalence towards Russia (Russia is one of Turkey’s largest trading partners), constitute a barrier. After all, Europe claims to be a values-based community. – National Interest

Gulf States

The United Arab Emirates signed 22 agreements worth more than $5 billion with Kazakhstan, UAE’s Minister of Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi said on X. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed ethical concerns about his plan to accept an airplane as a gift from the Qatari royal family, saying on Monday it would be “stupid” to turn down the generous offer. – Reuters

Elon Musk has been invited to attend a Saudi-U.S. investment forum in Riyadh on Tuesday on the sidelines of U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East, according to a planning note seen by Reuters. – Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was a strategic move initiated by Trump himself, rather than a trap sprung on him by Arab leaders, Middle East expert at the Israel Center for Greater Strategy, Dr Edy Cohen, told Maariv on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Mr. Trump’s plan to take the Qatari jet is a political gift to Democrats. The GOP objected, rightly and loudly, to Hunter Biden’s influence peddling abroad while his father was in high office, followed by his selling art at inflated prices while President Biden sat in the White House. Now the Trump family is making much money in opaque sales of crypto-coins, while Mr. Trump says it’s simply good sense to accept a free jumbo jet from Qataris bearing gifts. – Wall Street Journal

Dana Stroul writes: What about the future of the two-state solution between Palestinians and Israel, which is certainly high on the agenda of Gulf leaders? What about the suite of U.S. bilateral Saudi agreements such as a mutual defense treaty or a civilian nuclear agreement? And of course, the question of Saudi-Israel normalization. We’re unlikely to see these issues brought to closure this week, but certainly we should expect to see progress and advancement as they discuss those high priority issues. – Washington Institute

Clayton Seigle writes: Trump has already scored an easy win with more oil from Saudi Arabia, which in turn will benefit from Trump’s favor and more effective competition against U.S. drillers. To safeguard the oil price reduction, Trump will also need Israel to hold fire on Iran’s vulnerable oil assets. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Seth Mandel writes: It was at that moment that Qatar had an obligation to intervene and either get the hostages home or cut Hamas loose. Instead, if floundered and dragged its feet. Edan Alexander is free. But as the scheme to drag him to Qatar for a photo op with the emir and Trump shows, he isn’t yet free of Qatar’s malign influence. And neither, apparently, is the United States. – Commentary Magazine

Middle East & North Africa

France will respond to Algeria’s “unjustified” decision to expel 15 French officials, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Monday, as relations between the countries worsened further. – Reuters

At least three people have died, including two children aged 3 and 4, in a Mediterranean sea crossing from Libya to Italy, a German sea rescue charity said on Sunday, adding that it had rescued 59 survivors. – Reuters

Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority chief, Osama Rabie, said the authority is considering offering discounts ranging from 12% to 15% on transit fees to help restore traffic in the strategic waterway reeling from attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Red Sea shipping. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s finance ministry said on Monday the government would actively communicate with the U.S. over semiconductor tariffs and make an effort to minimise the impact of biopharmaceutical tariffs. – Reuters

South Korea’s Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung is the frontrunner for the June 3 snap presidential election, vowing political and economic reforms to help the country recover from the shock of December’s brief martial law. – Reuters

Seeking to build momentum in his campaign to win South Korea’s presidency, former labour minister and conservative candidate Kim Moon-soo is pledging economic policies focused on deregulation, investments in AI and tax breaks for the middle class. – Reuters

South Korea is facing an abrupt shift to liberal from conservative leadership with barely three weeks to go in an election campaign that underscores the deep split in a society that sees its ousted president on trial for trying to destroy his leftist foes. – New York Sun

China

China has reassured its citizens they would have enough to eat without U.S. crops. It will have to unclog Latin America’s largest port first. – Wall Street Journal

A White House executive order said on Monday that the U.S. would cut the “de minimis” tariff on China shipments to 54% from 120%, with a minimum flat fee of $100 to remain starting from May 14. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump’s comment on “unification” was about the U.S.-China trade relationship and U.S. policy towards Taiwan has not changed, the de facto embassy on the island said on Tuesday, after the wording caused unease in Taipei. – Reuters

President Donald Trump said on Monday that he could speak with China’s President Xi Jinping at the end of the week amid progress between the two economic rivals on a trade deal. – Reuters

A tariff deal between the United States and China on Monday was greeted with scepticism on Chinese social media, while official commentary welcomed the news. – Reuters

China is moving to strengthen its alliances with other countries as a counterweight to President Donald Trump’s trade war, presenting a united front with Latin American leaders at an event Tuesday in Beijing. – Associated Press

Chinese leader Xi Jinping says “bullying” and “hegemonism” will only backfire, in a veiled reference to the United States just a day after a temporary truce was agreed in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. – CNN

The U.S. is “smearing and shifting blame onto China” over the fentanyl crisis, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry said, after the Trump Administration had hailed the progress made with Beijing on the crisis at trade talks in Geneva. – Newsweek

Garret Molloy and Elsa Johnson write: With China’s intelligence-gathering, however, there may be no reported threats, but no one involved has any incentive to talk about them to the school. That’s true of the Chinese students who are helping the CCP—whether they want to or not. But it’s also true of other observers who fear being called racist, and the university itself, which has received over $64 million from anonymous Chinese donors since 2010. Former FBI director Christopher Wray has called the theft of academic research “one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history.” It won’t end until we start to acknowledge its existence. – The Free Press

South Asia

Bangladesh’s Election Commission has suspended the registration of ousted former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, effectively barring the party from contesting the next national elections. – Reuters

The recent military escalation with arch-rival India won’t have a large fiscal impact on Pakistan and can be managed within the current fiscal space, with no need for a new economic assessment, Pakistan’s Finance Minister said in an interview with Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

Pakistan will have to get rid of its “terrorist infrastructure” if it wants to be “saved”, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Monday, his first comments on the military clashes with Pakistan since last week’s deadly fighting between the two countries. – Reuters

President Donald Trump said on Monday the United States is ready to help India and Pakistan in the wake of a ceasefire agreement that he says his administration helped broker. – Reuters

The military operations chiefs of India and Pakistan held talks by phone on Monday evening, broadcaster CNN-News18 said, two days after the nuclear-armed neighbours reached a ceasefire agreement following intense fighting last week. – Reuters

India has proposed to levy import duties on some products made in the United States to counter Washington’s tariffs on steel and aluminium products produced in Asia’s No.3 economy, a notice to the World Trade Organization (WTO) shows. – Reuters

Asia

Taiwan on Monday test-fired for the first time a new U.S.-supplied rocket system that has been widely used by Ukraine against Russia and could be deployed to hit targets in China if there is a war with Taiwan. – Reuters

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was sworn in for a second term on Tuesday, alongside his ministers, after a landslide win at a national election he said had returned the largest centre-left Labor government since federation in 1901. – Reuters

Vietnam is stepping up its fight against counterfeits and digital piracy after the United States accused the country of being a major hub for these illegal activities and threatened crippling tariffs, documents reviewed by Reuters show. – Reuters

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that he would seek to meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the sidelines of the G7 meetings in Canada next week to discuss foreign exchange. – Reuters

Allies of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr looked set to win at least half of the available Senate seats in a midterm election on Monday, an unofficial tally showed, in a contest seen as a referendum on his leadership and a fierce proxy battle with his estranged vice president. – Reuters

Thirteen people died in a blast during a disposal of expired military ammunition in Indonesia’s West Java on Monday, army officials told local media, the second incident involving expired ammunition in the country in little over a year. – Reuters

Europe

Britain’s government set out plans to limit legal migration into the country, saying that a record influx of foreigners since Brexit had done little to energize the economy. – Wall Street Journal

The European Commission is analysing the trade deal struck last week between the United States and Britain for implications for the 27-nation European Union and global trade, European Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said on Monday. – Reuters

France said on Monday that leaders at a meeting on Ukraine this weekend had asked the European Commission to put together new “massive” sanctions targeting Russia’s oil and financial sector if Russia failed to agree a ceasefire. – Reuters

Bulgaria’s President Rumen Radev on Monday proposed a referendum on the country’s plans to adopt the euro next year, prompting criticism from the government, with one minister saying it was an attempt to “sabotage” the initiative. – Reuters

Hungary has cancelled a meeting with Ukraine of experts on minority rights that had been due to take place on Monday, citing a row in which the two neighbours expelled diplomats and accused each other of engaging in espionage. – Reuters

Switzerland has moved to the front of the queue for a trade deal with the United States, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday, after the Alpine country hosted surprisingly successful U.S.-China trade talks this weekend. – Reuters

France kicked off the 2025 edition of its high-intensity naval exercise Polaris on Monday, moving the action to the Atlantic with a scenario including attacks against French naval ports, a multinational sea battle and amphibious operations on the English and French coasts. – Defense News

Clive Crook writes: To be clear, this is damage limitation, no more. Joseph Nye, who coined the term “soft power,” passed away last week. In a recent article, he explained why Trump, who sees himself as a hyper-realist in foreign affairs, is no such thing: “True realism does not neglect liberal values or soft power.” Trump has shown how easily those principles can be tossed aside. Reviving them, supposing that’s possible, will be very much harder. – Bloomberg

Africa

The U.S. president has accused South Africa’s Black-majority government of plotting to seize white farms and failing to stop “violent attacks on innocent disfavored minority farmers.” – Wall Street Journal

Suspected Islamist militants attacked a Nigerian army base and captured soldiers and ammunition during a raid in the insurgency-hit northeastern Borno state in the early hours of Monday, two security sources told Reuters. – Reuters

Armed clashes erupted on Monday evening and gunfire has echoed in the city center and other parts of the Libyan capital Tripoli following reports that an armed group leader was killed, three residents told Reuters by phone. – Reuters

The prime minister of junta-ruled Guinea announced a new date of December 2025 for elections, seeking to reassure investors in a speech at an African business forum on Monday. – Reuters

Nigeria’s economy recorded its fastest growth in about a decade in 2024, driven by a strong fourth quarter and an improved fiscal position, the World Bank said on Monday, but warned that persistently high inflation remains a challenge. – Reuters

The Americas

Brazil announced two Chinese partnerships on Monday, including a $1 billion investment by China’s Envision Energy to produce sustainable aviation fuel, as the country’s president visits China. – Reuters

The Trump administration told the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday that “dangerous behavior” from a group of Venezuelan migrants detained by the federal government in Texas justified lifting a court order blocking their immediate deportation. – Reuters

Colombia will join China’s Belt and Road initiative, a massive development project from the Asian nation in which it funds infrastructure projects, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said on Monday. – Reuters

The United States should look more generously at Latin America and South America, Brazil Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Monday, arguing that the world’s largest economy has “much to gain” from greater industrial development across the continent. – Reuters

North America

Mexican special forces blasted into a safe house in the Sinaloa cartel stronghold of Culiacán earlier this year looking for Mexico’s most wanted man: Iván Archivaldo Guzmán. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump had one big question on his mind as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney headed to Washington last week.“I very much want to work with him, but cannot understand one simple TRUTH,” Mr. Trump said in a social media post, reiterating several of ways he believes Canada benefits unfairly from its trade relationship with United States. – New York Times

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke on Monday and agreed to strengthen trade, commercial, and defence ties, according to a statement from the Canadian prime minister’s office. – Reuters

Mexico expects a planned review of the trilateral trade pact with the U.S. and Canada to kick off ahead of schedule, the nation’s economy minister said on Monday. – Reuters

The top diplomats from Kenya and the Dominican Republic met in Santo Domingo on Monday and called on the international community to fulfill and expand its promised funding for the UN-backed security mission in neighboring Haiti. – Reuters

United States

The Trump administration is investigating whether Harvard University discriminated against white, Asian, male or heterosexual workers in its hiring and promotion practices, the latest escalation of the battle between the government and the Ivy League school. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump signed an executive order aimed at lowering the cost of prescription drugs, directing his administration to craft a policy that ties U.S. drug prices to what other countries pay. – Wall Street Journal

Harvard University fired back at US Education Secretary Linda McMahon, denying her allegation that the school has a partisan political bias and warning that government “overreach” is threatening key freedoms. – Bloomberg

Arthur Herman writes: Of course, the U.S. Navy is not the Royal Navy of old; it has no territorial empire to defend and no longer acts as the world’s policeman. However, ignoring the strategic importance of these passageways or ceding control to potential foes like China and Russia will endanger not only American interests but also the future of the global economy. Admiral Jackie Fisher has been dead for more than a century. But his ghost and spirit deserve a seat at the next national security meeting at the White House. – National Interest

Cybersecurity

In a sprawling warehouse in a Shanghai suburb, dozens of humanoid robots are manoeuvred by their operators to carry out tasks like folding a T-shirt, making a sandwich and opening doors, over and over again. – Reuters

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched a new company to develop and manage artificial intelligence technologies in Saudi Arabia on Monday, a top priority of its economic diversification drive. – Reuters

Grocery shelves at the Co-op retail chain are increasingly depleted in spots across the United Kingdom as the company continues to respond to an attempted cyberattack detected two weeks ago. – The Record

Scott Neuman writes: What’s more, the outputs varied according to the country. For an imaginary diplomat from the U.S., U.K. or France, for example, these AI systems tended to recommend more aggressive — or escalatory — policy, while suggesting de-escalation as the best advice for Russia or China. It shows that “you cannot just use off-the-shelf models,” Atalan says. “You need to assess their patterns and align them with your institutional approach.” – NPR

Defense

The Pentagon is halting gender-affirming healthcare for transgender troops as it moves to implement President Donald Trump’s plan to kick them out of the U.S. military, according to a memo seen by Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

The U.S. military is replacing its B-2 bombers with another type of bomber at a base in the Indo-Pacific that was seen as being in an ideal location to operate in the Middle East, U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

Converting a Qatar-donated Boeing 747 into a new Air Force One for President Donald Trump could require vast sums of money, take years to complete and may introduce alarming capability shortcomings and security vulnerabilities into the chief executive’s aircraft, aviation experts said. – Defense News

The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit wrapped up a MEU Exercise in Okinawa on Friday as it prepares for an upcoming Indo-Pacific deployment. At the same time, Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 211 “Wake Island Avengers,” an F-35B Lightning II fighter squadron based out of Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Arizona, has deployed to MCAS Iwakuni, Japan, under the Marine Corps Unit Deployment Program. – USNI News