Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Trump says ending Iran war will be 'mutual' decision with Netanyahu Iran picks supreme leader’s son to run country Russia secretly sharing location of U.S. targets with Iran, U.S. officials say WSJ Editorial: The risks of arming the kurds in Iran Ukrainian forces halt advance in Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv officials say WSJ Editorial: Hezbollah pays for doing Iran’s bidding Saudi has told Iran not to attack it, warns of possible retaliation, sources say JPost Editorial: Israel should not force Gulf’s hand on Iran Next task for Xi Jinping: rebuild the military command he wiped out Man convicted of assassination plot with Trump as a possible target Explosion damages U.S. embassy in Oslo, police say U.S. army sends Ukraine-tested drones to hit Iran’s dronesIn The News
Israel
The Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel was the greatest security failure of Benjamin Netanyahu’s career. Less than three years later, the Israeli prime minister is pursuing what may become his defining strategic achievement: toppling the Islamic Republic of Iran. – Wall Street Journal
Israel’s military said it hit Iranian commanders in the Lebanese capital early on Sunday, expanding the scope of its campaign to the heart of Beirut after days of strikes that have left nearly 400 people dead. – Reuters
An Israeli air strike and tank shelling killed six Palestinians, including two girls, in Gaza City on Sunday in two separate attacks, the deadliest incidents in Gaza since Israel and the U.S. launched their war against Iran a week ago, health officials said. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that when to end the war with Iran will be a “mutual” decision made with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. – Reuters
The Israeli military said on Sunday that two of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon, marking the first fatalities among its troops since Israel-Hezbollah hostilities resumed last week as Israeli intensified air strikes on Lebanon. – Reuters
Israel’s military said on Friday that a “firing component” launched by its navy unintentionally struck a fuel truck belonging to a United Nations agency in Gaza the previous day, an incident that prompted the agency to publicly call for a full investigation. – Reuters
Israel was on Saturday forced to pause an effort to repatriate some 4,000 citizens still stranded in the United Arab Emirates amid the war with Iran after the Dubai airport was hit in an Iranian strike. – Agence France-Presse
Helicopter-borne Israeli commandos landed deep in eastern Lebanon in an overnight raid aimed at locating the body of missing Israeli Air Force navigator Ron Arad, the military said. – Agence France-Presse
A fragment from an Iranian missile hit in central Israel, Magen David Adom announced late on Sunday night. – Jerusalem Post
Despite doubts about recent IDF claims of having destroyed a secret nuclear site that was critical for the Islamic regime’s plans to develop a nuclear weapon, The Jerusalem Post has exclusively confirmed with Israeli sources the dangers the site posed. – Jerusalem Post
Six people were injured, one of them seriously, at two impact sites in central Israel following an Iranian ballistic missile attack that apparently used a cluster warhead on Sunday afternoon, the sixth salvo of the day targeting Israel. – Times of Israel
A first few hundred passengers were able to leave Israel on Sunday after Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport was partially reopened for outbound flights for the first time since the opening Israeli and US strikes on Iran on February 28. – Times of Israel
Iran
Iran on Sunday named Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader, Iranian state media reported, echoing the kind of hereditary rule the Islamic Republic once replaced. – Wall Street Journal
One week into President Trump’s war on Iran, the most severe shock to energy markets since the 1970s is cascading through the world economy. The disruption quickly fed into higher gasoline and diesel prices at the pump, and higher mortgage rates and borrowing costs for the U.S. government, endangering Trump’s economic priorities. – Wall Street Journal
Russia is sharing with Iran information about the locations of U.S. military forces in the Middle East that Tehran could be using to help guide its missile attacks in the region, according to U.S. officials and a former Russian intelligence officer, in the strongest indication yet of cooperation between the two nations during the Iran conflict. – Wall Street Journal
Speaking on state television late Saturday in a room plunged in near-total darkness, Ali Larijani, Iran’s top national-security official, vowed to hold President Trump responsible for killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump must “pay the price” for the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, he said, calling the U.S. president “very backward.” – Wall Street Journal
A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.” – Washington Post
Within hours of the first Israeli and American airstrikes hitting Iran last weekend, militiamen from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps deployed in neighborhoods across Tehran, the capital, and in most urban centers. – New York Times
The Israeli military struck several Iranian fuel sites, including oil storage depots, this weekend, which appeared to be the first attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began. – New York Times
American intelligence agencies have determined that Iran or potentially another group could retrieve Iran’s primary store of highly enriched uranium even though it was entombed under the country’s nuclear site at Isfahan by U.S. strikes last year, according to multiple officials familiar with the classified reports. – New York Times
Kurdish residents of northeast Syria warned Iran’s Kurds against aligning with the U.S. to fight the Iranian government, citing their own experience in Syria in recent months as evidence their Iranian counterparts would be “abandoned.” – Reuters
President Donald Trump is weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium, as officials grow increasingly concerned the stockpile may have been moved, according to three diplomatic officials briefed on the matter. – Bloomberg
Israel has been bombing parts of western Iran to support Iranian Kurdish militias who hope to exploit the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic to seize towns near the frontier, three sources familiar with Israel’s talks with the factions told Reuters Friday. – Agence France-Presse
Estimates suggest that roughly 70% of Iran’s missile launchers have been either destroyed or rendered inoperable since the beginning of the offensive. Prior to the campaign, intelligence assessments indicated that Iran possessed approximately 420 missile launchers. Current estimates now place the number of operational systems at around 100. – Algemeiner
Editorial: There’s also the risk of encouraging the Kurds to fight only to abandon them later when Mr. Trump inevitably decides to end the bombing. The U.S. has done this to various groups over the decades—think the Iraqi Shiites in 1991—and the betrayals always prove costly in lives and America’s reputation. The Kurds and other ethnic groups in Iran will determine what’s in their best interests, and if the regime totters they will no doubt look to take advantage. But the U.S. will do better to keep its eyes on the prize of degrading the regime and its weaponry. – Wall Street Journal
Elliot Kaufman writes: The failure to see that, and so much else, can be attributed to the prevailing “Washington-centered analysis,” Mr. Ansari says. “We always see Iran as almost marginal to the problem, which is Washington.” If only Mr. Trump hadn’t done this or that, the commentators rage. But if there is now an opening for regime change, it is because U.S. policymakers for once were able to turn from the mirror and see what the Iranian people know well: The problem is in Iran. – Wall Street Journal
Luke Coffey writes: While the ultimate end state of the war in Iran remains uncertain, global policymakers should act now to mitigate the broader economic consequences. The continued and secure use of the Middle Corridor will not solve every disruption caused by regional conflict. But as recent events have demonstrated, it is an increasingly vital component of global trade resilience and one that can no longer be treated as peripheral to the world economy. – Arab News
Albert B. Wolf writes: Washington should abandon the Kurdish gambit. Every day it remains on the table, Turkey, Iraq, and Pakistan edge further toward the conclusion that American strategy poses a greater threat to their territorial integrity than Iranian retaliation does. That conclusion is Tehran’s most valuable strategic asset — and Washington is handing it over for free. The hard-liners do not need to win the war. They only need the region’s governments to decide that helping Washington win costs too much. – War on the Rocks
Russia and Ukraine
Ukrainian special forces have halted a Russian advance in the southeastern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv officials said Saturday — the latest military success in recent weeks amid Moscow’s ongoing aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities. – Washington Post
As the war in Iran spirals beyond its borders, Ukraine has sent interceptor drones and a team of drone experts to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with The New York Times. – New York Times
Russia unleashed a deadly barrage of missiles and drones on Ukraine early Saturday, killing at least 10 people in Kharkiv, as concerns mount that the conflict in the Middle East is draining the supply of U.S.-made air defenses that it badly needs. – New York Times
The Kremlin is enjoying a sudden resurgence of its importance as a global supplier of oil and gas, as the conflict in Iran disrupts energy production and shipment across the Middle East and sends global energy prices soaring. – New York Times
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he and Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten discussed joint arms production during his visit to Kyiv on Sunday, and he stressed Ukraine’s unique experience in defending against Iranian-made drones used by Russia. – Reuters
Russia is expanding military units at the border with NATO, giving them battle experience in Ukraine, and could use them as hubs in a conflict with NATO after the war, Lithuanian intelligence said on Friday in its annual assessment of security threats. – Reuters
As the war in the Middle East strains U.S. missile stocks, Ukraine is hoping it can turn a wartime innovation — low-cost interceptors designed to shoot down Russian attack drones — into geopolitical leverage. – Associated Press
Jane Nakano writes: Also, the funding situation for new nuclear-powered icebreakers appears to be precarious despite the strategic importance of the Arctic deployment and requisite expansion of the country’s icebreaker fleet. The Russian war on Ukraine since February 2022 has illuminated how a supplier selection is shaped by multiple factors. While a strong track record in project deliveries and affordability are important, so is a sense of economic sovereignty and energy security. The war has not wiped out the existing slate of Rosatom projects around the world, but it has significantly dimmed the outlook for Russia’s leadership in the global nuclear commerce. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Hezbollah
Now, as Lebanon faces a rapidly escalating conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, the country is waiting to see if the government seizes on this moment to take decisive action against Hezbollah — and how the group will respond.- New York Times
Lebanese Shi’ite militant group Hezbollah on Saturday warned residents of a northern Israeli city near the border with Lebanon to evacuate and head south. – Reuters
Hezbollah has instructed its members to confront the Lebanese army should it attempt to intervene with the group’s activities, a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF struck Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut as well as various targets in Iran in the early hours of Monday morning, the military announced. – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: Iran created Hezbollah in the early 1980s to export the Islamic Revolution, and it has since used the militia to kill Americans, attack Israel, dominate Lebanon, and commit mass murder to preserve Iranian power over Syria for as long as it could. Hezbollah has been Iran’s most effective weapon, and it stands to lose the most if the regime falls. The fewer options Iran has to terrorize the region, the better. As Iranian missile and drone salvos diminish, its proxies will suffer a similar fate if they try to pick up the slack. Hezbollah’s entry into the war, with disregard for the Lebanese people, is another reminder of the terror and destruction Iran’s regime has spread. – Wall Street Journal
Iraq
The war in the Middle East is pushing the U.S. military back into combat in Iraq against an old foe—Iran-backed militia groups that two decades ago battled American troops on the streets of Baghdad. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was targeted in a rocket attack over the weekend as Iraq found itself being drawn deeper into the war engulfing neighboring Iran and the Persian Gulf region more broadly. – New York Times
Elizabeth Tsurkov writes: This armed network has largely captured the Iraqi state, but dismantling it would not be as difficult a task as it seems. That task will become an urgent one, too, if the Iranian regime survives this war. In that scenario, the economic lifeline the militias provide would pose a long-term threat to Western interests. All forms of pressure should thus be brought to bear on the Iraqi militias to prevent them from helping reinvigorate and sustain the battered regime in Tehran. – Foreign Affairs
Turkey
Turkey plans to deploy six F-16 fighter jets to northern Cyprus on Monday to bolster the defences of the Turkish community there, broadcaster NTV said, citing a civil aviation official from the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. – Reuters
Istanbul’s jailed mayor Ekrem Imamoglu goes on trial on Monday in a sweeping corruption case that could extinguish the ambition of Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival to become president at Turkey’s next election. – Reuters
Turkey’s intelligence agency asked its British counterpart MI6 last month to take a larger role in protecting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa after recent assassination plots, according to five people familiar with the matter. – Reuters
Lebanon
The details of that operation remain unclear. At least 41 people were killed and dozens more wounded in overnight airstrikes and clashes in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, according to the Lebanese health authorities. – New York Times
The headquarters of Ghana’s United Nations peacekeeping battalion in Lebanon was hit by missile attacks on Friday, leaving two soldiers critically injured, Ghana’s armed forces said in a statement. – Reuters
Israel warned Lebanon of a “disastrous” fallout if it did not rein in Iran-backed Hezbollah on Saturday, as it pounded the group’s strongholds around the country with air strikes and mounted a deadly airborne raid in the east. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia
American employees of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Saudi Arabia have been told to leave the country under mandatory departure orders issued by the State Department, according to current and former U.S. officials. – New York Times
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after Iran’s strikes on the kingdom amid a sprawling conflict in the region, Downing Street said in a statement, opens new tab on Friday. – Reuters
Two people were killed and 12 injured after a projectile fell on a residential location in Saudi Arabia’s Al-Kharj city on Sunday, the Saudi Civil Defense said. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia has told Tehran that while it favours a diplomatic settlement to Iran’s conflict with the United States, continued attacks on the kingdom and its energy sector could push Riyadh to respond in kind, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters
Gulf States
An Iranian drone attack damaged a desalination plant in Bahrain, bringing the war to the oil-rich Persian Gulf’s most strategic resource: drinking water. The attack did material damage, the Gulf state’s Interior Ministry said Sunday. – Wall Street Journal
This past week, Iran responded to U.S. and Israeli attacks by launching roughly 1,400 ballistic missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates alone, according to government figures, and hundreds more at the other Gulf Cooperation Council countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. – Wall Street Journal
Iranian strikes in retaliation for the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign have hit radar, communications and air defense systems in Qatar, the U.A.E., Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, according to U.S. officials, military analysts and commercially available satellite images. – Wall Street Journal
Kuwait has begun cutting oil production because it is running out of storage space, as the fallout from the Iran conflict spreads across the Middle East and casts a pall over the global economy. – Wall Street Journal
Bapco Energies declared force majeure on its group operations on Monday following a recent attack on its refinery complex, the company said. – Reuters
United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed warned the country’s “enemies” not to mistake its prosperity for weakness, delivering rare public remarks as Iranian strikes on the Gulf nation continue. – Bloomberg
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani has described Iran’s strikes on Gulf countries as a “dangerous miscalculation” – warning the escalation risks destabilising the region and sending shockwaves through the global economy. – Sky News
Debris from an intercepted Iranian projectile fell on a petrol facility in the Fujairah Emirate, UAE, Fujairah’s media office announced on Sunday night. – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: Israeli officials must therefore exercise caution when discussing Gulf partners. They should not leak sensitive military information or speculate about future actions. A narrative suggesting that Israel is pressuring these states to take part in the war will only undermine the alignment that has emerged in response to Iran’s indiscriminate attacks. When and if the moment comes that Jerusalem’s Gulf partners officially join the fighting against Iran, Israel should welcome that cooperation – but do so quietly. – Jerusalem Post
Javier Blas writes: Sunni Arab states in the Persian Gulf have long had tense relations with Iran, a Shia-majority country. And yet in recent years Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have sought to improve relations. Before the hostilities, they were eager for Tehran to agree to a diplomatic deal with the US through talks being mediated by Oman. Oil is dragging them into the conflict, with unknown consequences. Increasingly, the Third Gulf War resembles some episodes of World War II. Think about the Battle of the Atlantic, where Germany tried to cut off Britain’s supply of essential commodities. Now, it’s the Battle of the Pipelines. – Bloomberg
Korean Peninsula
A South Korean parliamentary committee on Monday agreed on the final wording of a special bill, paving the way for a plenary vote this week to enable $350 billion of U.S. investments under a bilateral trade deal between the countries. – Reuters
South Korea’s Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan on Sunday said the U.S. is unlikely to slap higher tariffs on South Korea should the Korean parliament move swiftly to implement investment legislation sought by the U.S. next week as scheduled. – Reuters
The US and South Korea reduced the scale of annual springtime joint military drills long denounced by North Korea, as Seoul attempts to ease tensions with Pyongyang ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned visit to the region. – Bloomberg
China
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ousted most of his top generals. Now he must rebuild a high command battered by scandal and resume his push to ready his military to challenge the U.S. To accomplish this, Xi declared while addressing military delegates at China’s legislature on Saturday, loyalty will be the paramount concern. – Wall Street Journal
Two ships owned by an Iranian company that the United States has accused of supplying material to Tehran’s ballistic missile program departed a Chinese chemical-storage port this week laden with cargo and headed for Iran, according to a Washington Post analysis of ship-tracking data, satellite imagery and Treasury Department records. – Washington Post
China’s commerce ministry on Friday expressed “grave concern” over the EU’s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) which imposes restrictions on foreign investment in batteries, EVs, solar PV and critical raw materials, according to a statement. – Reuters
Miles Yu writes: The lesson is unmistakable. Grand strategy built on vulnerable and tyrannical proxies carries inherent risk. In Iran, China believed it had found the perfect partner: strategically located, ideologically aligned and willing to challenge U.S. influence. That bet has failed. – Washington Post
South Asia
A Pakistani national who had ties to an Iranian armed force was found guilty Friday of plotting the assassination of a U.S. politician in 2024, with President Trump and former President Joe Biden as possible targets. – Wall Street Journal
Rapper-turned politician Balendra Shah, popularly known as Balen, is set to become Nepal’s next prime minister as the official vote count nears completion. Millions of Nepalese cast ballots Thursday during the first national election since youth-led protests toppled the country’s previous leader last year. – Wall Street Journal
Bangladesh will close all universities from Monday, bringing forward the Eid al-Fitr holidays as part of emergency measures to conserve electricity and fuel amid a worsening energy crisis linked to the conflict in the Middle East. – Reuters
The U.S. is pressing Sri Lanka not to repatriate the survivors from an Iranian warship it sank this week or the crew of a second Iranian ship that is in Sri Lankan custody, according to an internal State Department cable seen by Reuters. – Reuters
Iran had sought India’s permission for three of its ships to dock at its ports, which was granted on March 1, India’s foreign minister said on Monday, adding that the government believed that it was the “right thing to do”. – Reuters
Pakistan said it’s discussed with Saudi Arabia joint measures they could take to halt Iranian drone and missile strikes on the kingdom, a first test of the mutual defense pact between the two countries. – Bloomberg
Shashwat Kumar writes: For India, diversification remains key. The conflict increases the chances of greater reliance on Russian crude, and perhaps bring gas into the mix. This combination may elevate Moscow to a Gulf-tier supplier of energy for India once again. Import shares from Gulf countries may rebound post-crisis, as OPEC+ has agreed to slightly increase oil output. Yet pragmatism rules: With the U.S. waiver in hand, ongoing extensions amid geopolitical uncertainties should not be ruled out. Russian crude flows to India may endure less by desire than by demand. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Asia
Vietnam is planning to remove its import tariffs on fuels to ensure supplies amid disruptions caused by the military conflict in the Middle East, the government said. – Reuters
Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto said he will withdraw from U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” if it does not benefit Palestinians, according to a government statement on Friday, after the Iran war deepened doubts over his country’s involvement. – Reuters
Azerbaijan said it had prevented several acts of “terrorist” sabotage planned by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including a plot to attack a major oil pipeline running through the South Caucasus to Turkey. – Reuters
Azerbaijan said on Monday it had reopened its border crossings with Iran for all cargo traffic, the Russian state-run TASS news agency reported. – Reuters
Japan is preparing to deploy its first batch of domestically developed long-range missiles, with their launchers arriving at an army camp Monday as the country accelerates its offensive capability in response to rising challenges in the region. – Associated Press
Europe
Hungarian authorities detained seven employees of Ukraine’s second-largest bank and confiscated more than $80 million in cash and gold they were transporting in two armored trucks from Austria to Ukraine through Hungary, escalating a worsening feud between the two neighbors over oil deliveries. – Wall Street Journal
The Norwegian police said they were investigating an explosion that damaged the United States Embassy in Oslo in the early hours of Sunday in what Norwegian officials called a “targeted attack.” – New York Times
President Emmanuel Macron of France spoke on Friday to President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon, both presidencies confirmed, as the French government deepened its efforts to secure a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militia. – New York Times
Europe became the world’s biggest arms importer over the last five years as governments reacted to Russia’s threat and waning confidence in U.S. security commitments, data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute showed on Monday. – Reuters
A synagogue in the Belgian city of Liege was damaged by an explosion early on Monday, Belgian broadcaster VRT reported, citing local police. – Reuters
British police said on Friday an international investigation had identified suspected Russian military intelligence participation in a series of fires involving air freight cargo across Europe dating back to 2024. – Reuters
Swedish authorities are investigating a cargo ship sailing in the Baltic Sea that’s accused of transporting stolen grain, officials said Saturday. – Associated Press
Hungary ’s pro-Russian foreign minister Friday accused neighboring Ukraine of seeking to interfere in upcoming Hungarian elections in which Prime Minister Viktor Orban faces an unprecedented challenge. – Associated Press
French President Emmanuel Macron is traveling to Cyprus on Monday, days after dispatching a warship to the east Mediterranean island nation, where a Shahed drone struck a British air base on its southern coast last week during the Iran war. – Associated Press
The United States has started using British bases for certain operations against Iran during the Middle East war, the UK’s government announced on Saturday. – Agence France-Presse
Martin Ivens writes: Starmer now finds himself insulted by Trump for being an unreliable ally and the Tory opposition accuses him of betraying the national interest to save his political skin. On the other side, he faces powerful Labour critics who think he is letting himself get dragged into “another Iraq” by a reckless American warmonger. His Brownite colleagues in Cabinet offer him cold comfort. Not for the first time, the sense is of a leader who cannot forge his own path. Whichever way the war goes, someone will be the domestic beneficiary — and it is highly unlikely to be the man on Labour’s uncomfortable throne today. – Bloomberg
Lionel Laurent writes: The suggestion that Ukraine could lend its hard-won expertise against Iranian drones is smart. Yet it’s a reminder of how this latest conflict is swallowing military resources and will make it harder for Kyiv to get its own lifelines. Some of the defense capabilities needed in Ukraine are already moving to the Middle East. With Trump’s threats to annex Greenland fresh in the mind, Europeans are no longer in denial about the need to go it alone eventually. The path forward might have to be a mix of Merz’s emollience and Sanchez’s spikiness. EU diplomats will be diligently pushing for de-escalation, looking for an off-ramp with Gulf allies and expressing transatlantic disagreement where necessary. – Bloomberg
Bradley Martin and Liram Koblentz-Stenzler write: Is this indecisiveness merely a momentary shock from EU leaders in reaction to the U.S.-Israeli strikes, or is this a glimpse of what the next decade in Europe will look like? A continent where foreign policy is shaped by short-term national threat perceptions rather than a common strategic approach. With a heightened threat of Iran-linked sleeper cells striking targets in Europe following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the EU now faces a choice: confront the Iranian threat as a strategic challenge–or continue to treat it as someone else’s war. – Newsweek
Africa
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made no secret of his desire to restore his country’s access to the sea, which it lost in 1993 when Eritrea broke away after a 30-year war, taking 1,400 miles of prime coastline with it. Now troops are massing near the border region, raising concerns that Ethiopia’s long-term ambitions will feed into a long-running conflict with ethnic Tigrayan rebels, who dominate the Ethiopian side of the frontier. – Wall Street Journal
At least 45 “bandits” were killed in a clash with Nigerian troops in the Danmusa area of Katsina state in northern Nigeria, according to a statement from the Katsina State Government on Saturday. – Reuters
The U.S. State Department is imposing visa restrictions on several senior Rwandan officials for fueling instability in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters
Militants killed 15 soldiers and wounded five more at a military camp in northern Benin, an army spokesperson said on Friday, as violence spreads in the West African region. – Reuters
Thousands of civilians have fled an opposition-held town in eastern South Sudan following an evacuation order issued by the army to pave the way for a military operation, officials said Sunday. – Associated Press
Guinea’s main opposition figure on Sunday accused the country’s leader of trying to build a “party-state,” after the government dissolved 40 political parties by decree, including the main opposition ones. – Associated Press
The Americas
Machado appears to play no role in the Trump administration’s current calculations, despite spending the past two months in Washington lobbying for a democratic transition. Instead, the face of what many consider Venezuela’s legitimate government has become a spectator to Trump’s embrace of Maduro’s former top lieutenant, Delcy Rodríguez, whom he has recognized as the president of Venezuela. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump is sending a blunt message to Latin America: If you’re with us in fighting drug cartels, you need to use your military. And the U.S. stands ready to help. The president convened a group of conservative Latin American and Caribbean leaders Saturday to launch a new security initiative, called the Shield of the Americas, as the White House seeks to exert a dominant role in the region by rooting out drug trafficking. – Wall Street Journal
Aida Quilcue, an Indigenous leader and a Colombian senator, said she was driving through rural southwest Colombia with her security detail when about a half dozen armed men in camouflage stopped them by a bend in the road. – New York Times
Colombia’s leftist ruling party and main opposition party were on track to win the largest number of seats in Congress in Sunday’s legislative elections, preliminary vote tallies showed, but neither secured a majority, highlighting the fragmented nature of Colombia’s political landscape. – Reuters
The United States on Friday issued a license authorizing certain transactions involving Venezuelan-origin gold, the Treasury Department website showed, a day after U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum wrapped up a visit to the South American country focused on mining. – Reuters
Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: Venezuela fought desperately to stop his extradition to the U.S., indicating the value of what he knows. But Venezuela got him back in a 2023 trade with the Biden administration for American hostages. Venezuela is rumored to have rearrested Mr. Saab. On Saturday the Miami Herald reported that his extradition is likely, but only after “intense negotiations.” That resistance is another sign that, despite Mr. Trump’s happy talk about Ms. Rodríguez as a “terrific” person, the regime is no friend of the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
North America
Two Toronto-area synagogues were damaged by gunfire late Friday and early Saturday, the third such shooting in the area in less than a week, according to the Canadian authorities. – New York Times
The Justice Department has formed a working group to examine possible federal charges against officials or entities within Cuba’s government, according to an official familiar with the group. – Washington Post
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Cuba wants to make a deal and is negotiating with him and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Speaking at the “Shield of the Americas” gathering of Latin American leaders in Miami, Florida, Trump said Cuba was “at the end of the line.” – Reuters
The Trump administration may announce an economic deal with Cuba soon, USA Today reports citing two unidentified people with knowledge of the plans. – Bloomberg
Santiago Vidal Calvo writes: El Mencho’s death has not stopped the flow of fentanyl across the border or dissolved his cartel overnight. But it has punctured the aura of permanence that shields cartel leadership. Especially after Nicolás Maduro’s arrest in Venezuela, Cartel leaders in the hemisphere know they are no longer untouchable. This moment calls for sustained financial, prosecutorial, and intelligence pressure to degrade the organization’s ability to project power into the U.S. – The Hill
United States
The State Department says 24,000 Americans have returned from the Middle East since the U.S. and Israel began launching strikes on Iran on Saturday—and that 13,000 of them received direct assistance, including on evacuation flights that began Wednesday. – Wall Street Journal
The NYPD announced Sunday that a third suspicious device has been recovered as part of an ongoing investigation into an improvised explosive device (IED) thrown during dueling protests outside Gracie Mansion a day earlier. – Fox News
Joshua Muravchik writes: It remains an enduring symbol of anti-Americanism. Like the Iranians, the people of Cuba, if liberated, would be jubilant and regale the world with tales of their misery under the revolutionary anti-American regime. For years since the U.S. stumbled in Iraq and Afghanistan, we have been on our back foot, and the forces of anti-Americanism have been gaining strength and confidence. Iran and Cuba present Mr. Trump a chance to reverse that trend. It would be a valuable prize for the country and for him, an honor far nobler than the Nobel. – Wall Street Journal
Cybersecurity
The Pentagon has tapped Gavin Kliger, a former Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) employee, to lead the DOD’s growing adoption of artificial intelligence capabilities as its new chief data officer. – Defensescoop
The Department of Homeland Security is undergoing an overhaul of its IT and information security leadership, with multiple sources telling FedScoop there is a broad realignment underway at the department to replace key technology leaders. – Fedscoop
President Donald Trump released his administration’s cyber strategy Friday, promoting offense operations in cyberspace, securing federal networks and critical infrastructure, streamlining regulations, leveraging emerging technologies and strengthening the cybersecurity workforce. – Cyberscoop
North Korean threat groups are using artificial intelligence tools to accelerate and expand the country’s long-running scheme to get remote technical workers hired at global companies for longer durations, Microsoft Threat Intelligence said in a report Friday. – Cyberscoop
Defense
The U.S. Army is rushing to the Middle East counterdrone systems that have been battle-tested in Ukraine, in an effort to thwart Tehran’s destructive attacks across the region, U.S. officials said. – Wall Street Journal
Airstrikes have long been a go-to way to project military power for U.S. administrations that want to minimize the risk of American casualties and avoid entangling ground wars. U.S. military officials say they have greatly reduced Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles and have sunk much of the country’s navy. But without U.S. or local ground forces, they have never toppled and replaced a foreign government. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. military announced Sunday that a seventh American service member was killed in action during the war with Iran. The service member, who was not identified, died Saturday after suffering injuries during the first weekend of U.S.-Israeli strikes and ensuing Iranian counterattacks across the region, Central Command said. – Washington Post
The Defense Department said on Sunday that it had blown up a boat in the eastern Pacific Ocean earlier in the day, killing six people. The strike raised the death toll in the campaign by the United States against people it accuses of smuggling drugs at sea to at least 156. – New York Times
The Pentagon said on Friday it will conduct testing with the Federal Aviation Administration this weekend in New Mexico of high-energy laser used to address threatening drones. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump met executives from seven defense contractors on Friday, he announced in a social media post, as the Pentagon works to replenish supplies drawn down by U.S. strikes on Iran and other recent military operations. – Reuters
Trump administration officials conceded during a private briefing on Capitol Hill this week that Iran’s Shahed-136 drone is proving more disruptive on the battlefield than the Pentagon had anticipated, two people familiar with the matter told Military Times. – Defense News
The Pentagon’s counter-drone task force, Joint Interagency Task Force 401, is set to test a high-energy laser system against drones at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico over the weekend. – Defense News
Aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) is now operating in the Middle East as the U.S. war with Iran nears its second week. The Pentagon on Friday posted photos showing Ford and USS Bainbridge (DDG-96) sailing through the Suez Canal on Thursday. – USNI News
Loitering munitions and first-person-view drones are emerging as top causes of death and bodily harm in modern military conflicts, senators warned Thursday. – Defensescoop
The Defense Department is kicking off plans this month to deliver batches of small drones to roughly 17 military units, and officials will soon begin coordinating their deployments in real-world training exercises. – Defensescoop
Kate B. Odell writes: The debate over the U.S. military magazine depth has so far been the niche concern of a few patriots spread across government, Congress and think tanks. Now the public knows, and the president can make the case for putting U.S. weapons production on a wartime footing. Tom Karako, who runs the missile defense program at CSIS, said late last week that a supplemental funding request to Congress may need to be in the “triple-digit billions.” The goal isn’t merely replenishing what the U.S. is expending, but building more than enough to deter the next war. Support the fight in Iran or not, Americans never want to be at a loss for ammo. – Wall Street Journal
Nico Lange writes: The new economics of war are forcing us to think differently. This week, the US military announced that it will replicate and deploy cheap drones imitating the Iranian Shahed drones. Today, warfare also requires simple, robust systems in large quantities. And defense and deterrence require industrial production that can breathe and grow quickly when things get serious. This absolutely requires political decisions that allow for speed. This includes an offensive technology and industrial policy that sees security as its core task. – National Interest