Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that future talks between Russia and the United States would include discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme, a subject it said had been “touched upon” in an initial round of U.S.-Russia talks last month. – Reuters

OPEC oil output rose in February, a Reuters survey found, as Iranian exports held strong, despite renewed U.S. attempts to curb the flows, and Nigeria boosted output above its target within the wider OPEC+ group. – Reuters

The UK, France and Germany said an escalation of Iran’s nuclear program poses a serious threat to international security and called on the Islamic Republic to halt and reverse its atomic activities. – Bloomberg

A prominent Iranian pop singer who made a song urging women to remove their headscarves said Wednesday that he was willing to pay “a price for freedom” after being flogged 74 times by the authorities as part of his sentence. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The whistleblower disclosures suggest that the Obama admin efforts to protect Iranian sanctions violators continued even after the nuke deal was done. Kudos to Grassley for bringing this obscenity to light; he and the committee he chairs must keep digging — we need that “special investigation” Moy feared. Not least because for years, America endured screeches and screams from the left about Donald Trump’s servitude to a foreign power. Turns out Democrats were simply projecting. – New York Post

Michael Knights writes: The threat of waiver denial (and Iran’s own undersupply) is spurring Iraq, for the first time, to move quickly to replace Iranian energy – accelerating plans to import Saudi Arabian electricity, and to bring in modular electricity generation barges and LNG import vessels to Iraq’s coastline. […] The expiry of the sanctions waivers on March 7 can begin to free Iraq from Iran’s grip. It should be accompanied by a surge of informational materials to the Iraqi public that demonstrate the growing unreliability and high cost of Iranian energy supplies and the urgent need to finally reduce dependence on Iran. – Real Clear Energy

Syria

Days before the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, Russia said the Syrian rebels advancing on Damascus were terrorists. Now, with those rebels in power, Moscow senses an opportunity to both expand its economic footprint in Syria and hold on to its military bases there. – Wall Street Journal

In the Syrian capital, Damascus, the country’s new leader has hosted a national unity conference and welcomed foreign dignitaries as crowds gather at cafes, speaking out freely for the first time in decades. – New York Times

Syria’s foreign minister vowed on Wednesday to swiftly rid the country of chemical weapons remaining after the downfall of the Bashar al-Assad’s government, and appealed to the international community for help. – Reuters

Noam Raydan writes: In light of Syria’s dire socioeconomic conditions, officials in Washington and Europe may argue for putting these concerns aside and urgently addressing the population’s needs with whatever means are available. Yet ignoring these problems carries a high risk of not only perpetuating the endemic corruption seen under Assad, but also empowering illicit networks and adversaries abroad. – Washington Institute

Ibrahim Al-Assil writes: However, for long-term stability and regardless of the outlook for the American commitment in Syria, the US must also encourage broader negotiations that reduce tensions between the SDF and Damascus, ensuring that security cooperation does not further entrench divisions but instead facilitates a more unified approach to Syria’s future governance. A more organic and locally driven process — even if flawed — is more likely to produce a lasting and stable outcome. – Middle East Institute

Korean Peninsula

When Ukraine was scrambling this winter to understand how to respond to the threat of thousands of North Korean soldiers deployed to fight alongside Russia, it turned to someone steeped in Pyongyang’s ways: a North Korean defector. – Wall Street Journal

Fifteen people were injured in South Korea on Thursday after bombs dropped by fighter jets landed in a civilian district, damaging houses and a church during military exercises in Pocheon, the Air Force and the fire agency said. – Reuters

South Korea and Poland signed a cooperation agreement on Wednesday as the democratic allies increasingly find themselves united by concerns about the global security situation despite the vast geographical distance between them. – Associated Press

Washington has plunged into a tariff war with Beijing that puts America’s northeast Asian allies, Japan and South Korea, on Communist China’s side against President Trump’s effort to slash America’s total trade deficit, which last year hit nearly $1 trillion. – New York Sun

South Asia

During a visit to Washington last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made one point crystal-clear: He would gladly take back illegal Indian migrants in the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

India’s opposition party politicians in the southern states met on Wednesday to protest plans by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to redraw constituencies based on the 2011 census, on concerns the northern states would dominate in parliament. – Reuters

A new travel ban by President Donald Trump could bar people from Afghanistan and Pakistan from entering the U.S. as soon as next week based on a government review of countries’ security and vetting risks, three sources familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

Thousands of people poured on to the streets of Bannu in northwestern Pakistan for the funerals on Wednesday of 18 people, including six children, killed in a suicide attack on a security installation. – Reuters

The United Nations has warned it will have to cut monthly food rations to Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh from $12.50 to $6 next month, unless it can raise funds to avert a measure that would worsen hunger in the world’s largest refugee settlement. – Reuters

Europe

The European Commission presented its plan to help the embattled automotive industry fend off foreign competition while still aiming to reach the bloc’s ambitious climate targets. – Wall Street Journal

Greece’s top court has ordered the release of Israeli mining magnate Beny Steinmetz, setting aside a lower court ruling for his extradition to Romania on an arrest warrant, his lawyer and a source with knowledge of the case told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters

France is open to discussing extending the protection offered by its nuclear arsenal to its European partners, President Emmanuel Macron said in a grave address to the nation on Wednesday, in which he warned that Europe must face up to the threat from Russia. – Reuters

Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede said on Wednesday that the Greenlandic people will determine their own future and do not want to be Danes nor Americans. – Reuters

Greece’s centre-right government faces a no-confidence vote this week over a deadly 2023 train disaster, days after protesters brought the country to a standstill to press their demands for political accountability. – Reuters

European leaders aim to endorse bold measures to ramp up defence spending and pledge support for Ukraine on Thursday, after Donald Trump’s suspension of military aid to Kyiv fuelled concerns the continent can no longer be sure of U.S. protection. – Reuters

Cyprus’s president on Wednesday said he was committed to resuming reunification talks with Turkish Cypriots, and said any deal should be based on U.N. resolutions. – Reuters

NATO armed forces are not ready for a modern drone war, the military commander in charge of Ukraine’s unmanned systems warned, three years into a conflict with Russia in which both sides are pushing for a technological edge. – Reuters

Britain’s Royal Navy said on Wednesday it monitored a Russian warship and merchant vessel this week on a voyage through the English Channel and North Sea. – Reuters

Romania said on Wednesday it had expelled two military diplomats from the Russian embassy in Bucharest as tensions sour between Moscow and the European Union and NATO-member country. – Associated Press

The UK and Ireland plan to share more data and slash red tape in a bid to boost energy security as thee two countries seek a tighter relationship after years of post-Brexit tension. – Bloomberg

Portugal could face early elections in May if the government loses a confidence vote in parliament next week, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said. – Bloomberg

Editorial: What’s still missing is the economic growth Germany needs to fund its military or anything else. A lot hinges on whether Mr. Merz can turn around Europe’s largest economy before it suffers a third year of recession. But the political signal is clear: Germany’s new administration, including Mr. Merz’s likely coalition partners, see the need to rearm. It’s the message NATO allies hoped to hear. – Wall Street Journal

Joshua S. Treviño and Kristina Rasmussen write: It is easy to imagine what a Greenlandic condominium might look like. Danish attachments to Greenland would remain unsundered and Danish dignity would remain intact; U.S. interests would be protected; and Greenlanders would benefit from freer American investment. It’s a fitting win-win-win for a U.S. president who wrote “The Art of the Deal.” – Wall Street Journal

James Stavridis writes: There is an old saying about why NATO was created: “To keep the Germans down, the Americans in, and the Russians out.” If the US decides to go its own way in the world — as it disastrously did in the 1920s and 1930s — that equation would be obsolete. The new expression could be: “With the Americans out, and the Russians trying to get in, the Europeans won’t be held down.” I’m hoping the transatlantic bridge isn’t going to buckle entirely, but I can certainly hear it creaking loudly. If it collapses, it won’t end well on either side of the Atlantic. – Bloomberg

Emanuele Rossi writes: Enhanced coordination with NATO and the EU is necessary to formulate a collective response to hybrid threats emanating from Russia. Italy faces an increasingly complex security environment in which Moscow seeks to weaken its stability and international standing. The Kremlin’s campaign specifically targets Meloni’s leadership, which actively seeks to support Ukraine and ensure Italian energy security. At a time of deep geopolitical uncertainty, it is critical that Italy’s allies support Rome’s firm stance against Putin’s aggression. – Center for European Policy Analysis

The Americas

Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino said on Wednesday morning that U.S. President Donald Trump was lying when he said that the North American leader’s administration was “reclaiming” the Panama Canal. – Reuters

Brazil will use its presidency of the annual United Nations global climate talks to press for multilateralism and respect for science, COP30 President-Designate Andre Aranha Correa do Lago said on Wednesday in a rejoinder to U.S. President Donald Trump over climate matters. – Reuters

El Salvador announced on Wednesday the purchase of a bitcoin, which takes the total in the country’s strategic reserve to above 6,102 coins, the National Bitcoin Office posted on social media. – Reuters

An airport in southwestern Haiti is ready to receive international flights for the first time, officials said Wednesday, adding a safer option for commercial airlines that have halted all flights to the main airport in Port-au-Prince, where gang violence persists. – Associated Press

Former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet said she won’t run for head of state in this year’s election, resisting pressure for her to represent the center-left in a field that’s dominated by opposition contenders. – Bloomberg

United States

The National Endowment for Democracy, a nonprofit that has had bipartisan support over decades for its work promoting democracy abroad, is suing the U.S. government and cabinet officials for withholding $239 million in congressional appropriations. – New York Times

President Donald Trump will consider restoring aid to Ukraine if peace talks are arranged and confidence-building measures are taken, White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Wednesday. – Reuters

A suspected participant in the suicide bombing at the Kabul airport that killed 13 American service members and roughly 170 Afghan civilians during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan arrived in the U.S. on Wednesday to face criminal charges in connection with the attack. – Associated Press

Police cleared anti-Israel protesters from the area of a library at New York’s Barnard Campus on Wednesday after a raucous demonstration and a bomb threat, the latest in a series of escalating incidents on the campus. – Times of Israel

Karl Rove writes: Then there was Mr. Trump’s pledge to “balance the federal budget.” That isn’t going to happen. Not even close. Why make a promise Republicans can be skewered over? Democrats have their answer: Make the rich pay their fair share. Still, it was a masterful performance, delivered with panache and gusto. Mr. Trump is better prepared than he was in 2017. From what America saw Tuesday, he is enjoying himself more. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: I’ve written before that what the new US administration has said on Ukraine and the concessions it made to the Kremlin before talks even begin make no sense except as an attempt to force Kyiv’s capitulation as part of a wider US reset with Russia. Seen in that light, security guarantees for Ukraine might well be just 2% of the problem, because Trump’s fabrications tell us that what happens to this sovereign state, or to stability in Europe, just isn’t his priority. – Bloomberg

Lawrence J. Haas writes: The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act declares a U.S. expectation that Taiwan’s future “will be determined by peaceful means” and a U.S. commitment to “maintain the capacity… to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan.” As China’s Xi Jinping considers whether to make do on his threats to seize Taiwan by force, will he conclude that the United States simply won’t have the stomach to turn its earlier declarations into action? – National Interest

Gabe Kaminsky writes: The investigation follows a “Dear Colleague” letter sent by the Department of Education’s Acting Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights two weeks ago which warned universities that the department “will no longer tolerate the overt and covert racial discrimination that has become widespread in this Nation’s educational institutions.” The letter states the department will “vigorously enforce the law on equal terms” to any K-12 or higher education institution which receives federal funding. – The Free Press

Defense

South Korean and U.S. troops will begin their large annual joint military drills next week to enhance their readiness against North Korean threats, the South Korean military said Thursday, days after North Korea threatened high-profile provocations against what it called escalating U.S.-led aggression. – Associated Press

The Defense Innovation Unit has chosen Anduril and Zone 5 Technologies to move to the next phase of a program aimed at developing an affordable and modular air vehicle for the Air Force. – DefenseScoop

Hovering over old Civil War-era farmland, a small quadcopter is told to go up 125 feet and then move 50 meters north of a specific target on the ground — in this case, a soccer goal. The drone rises and flies off. – Defense News

Editorial: Historian Arthur Herman has chronicled how the U.S. became the arsenal of democracy in World War II teaming with private industry, and it can be again—but not if Mr. Trump insists that every bolt and screw be built in America. U.S. naval decline has long been an accumulating risk to American security, especially as Beijing grows more aggressive in the Pacific. Presidential attention is welcome and overdue, and a serious naval buildup would be a down payment on Mr. Trump’s hopes of retiring from office as a peacemaker. – Wall Street Journal