Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israeli forces kill West Bank Hamas commander Israel says it needs deal on freeing hostages to extend Gaza ceasefire Russia seeks to serve as mediator between US and Iran War on the Rocks’ Michael Allen: Will Israel and the United States diverge on Iran? Zelensky calls heated meeting with Trump ‘regrettable’ in bid to mend ties Trump’s pause in arms for Ukraine to hit war effort in months Israel sees growing threat in Islamists trying to unify Syria North Korea appears close to completing its first airborne early warning aircraft China targets San Diego biotech firm in broadening blacklist Canada and US offered Uyghurs in Thailand asylum before deportation to China, sources say AEI’s Michael Rubin: Somaliland’s Abaarso Network should be the new model for USAID Trump says Afghan militant involved in 2021 Kabul Airport bombing has been capturedIn The News
Israel
Israel’s top security agency ignored signs Hamas would attack in October 2023 and was fooled into believing the militant group did not want all-out war, the agency reported in its own inquiry into one of Israel’s most devastating security failures. – Reuters
Israeli forces killed a Hamas commander in the West Bank city of Jenin on Tuesday as they pushed ahead with a weeks-long operation against militant groups in the area that has sent tens of thousands of Palestinians fleeing their homes. – Reuters
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Tuesday Israel was ready to proceed to the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal, as long as Hamas was ready to release more of the 59 hostages it is still holding. – Reuters
Israel’s block on deliveries into the war-stricken Gaza Strip has led to price increases and fears of food shortages, prompting punitive measures from the Hamas-run authorities against merchants, according to Hamas sources and witnesses. – Reuters
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich left for high-level talks in the U.S. on Tuesday, leaving behind a growing coalition crisis with ultra-Orthodox parties who say they have been denied promised 2025 budget allocations. – Reuters
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said on Tuesday he welcomed an Egyptian plan to rebuild the Gaza Strip and urged U.S. President Donald Trump to support such a plan that would not involve displacing Palestinian residents of the enclave. – Reuters
Israel’s defense policy has taken on a bold black-or-white approach following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack and 15 subsequent months of war, Economy Minister Nir Barkat said, signaling the country won’t be willing to compromise security on any of its borders. – Bloomberg
Israel is giving Hamas “several days” to rethink terms for a new Gaza ceasefire, raising the prospect of further pressure tactics or a resumption of war. – Bloomberg
Jordan on Tuesday evacuated the first group of Palestinian children in need of medical treatment from the war-battered Gaza Strip under a plan the king presented to US President Donald Trump last month. – Agence France-Presse
Four days after the first phase of the hostage deal ended, negotiations for its continuation have reached a deadlock. Mediators informed Israel that Hamas is refusing to show flexibility or discuss the framework proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff. Instead, Hamas insists on proceeding with the second phase of the deal and accuses Israel of violating the agreement. – Ynet
The United States on Wednesday rejected the Arab plan for the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip, with an official saying it does not align with the current situation in the enclave. – Ynet
Editorial: Beyond the military, this is a wake-up call for Israeli society. Just as Hamas exploited soldiers’ posts to plan an attack, it has also used civilian social media to track reservists, monitor troop deployments, and even target the homes of high-profile military personnel. Families of soldiers must recognize that even a seemingly harmless post can put lives at risk. Israel cannot afford another October 7. The IDF’s new social media policy is a step in the right direction, but it must be part of a broader transformation in how Israel approaches digital security. Information in the wrong hands can be just as deadly as any weapon. – Jerusalem Post
Tom Koren writes: Investing in this sector is not a luxury but a necessity – economically, in terms of security, and geopolitically. The Israeli government must advance a national strategy that encourages private investments, fosters regional partnerships, and enhances the security of the country’s critical networks. Israel’s future as a global technology center depends on its ability to seize these opportunities now. – Jerusalem Post
Raphael S. Cohen writes: On the present trajectory, therefore, the question is not if but when another Gaza war would occur. And if that projection isn’t gloomy enough, wars in Gaza have been turning longer and deadlier, which means that the next war in Gaza may be even grimmer than the current one. Indeed, Israeli strategists have labeled the dynamic “mowing the grass”: Hamas attacks, Israel cuts the group down to size, and then the threat grows back. Absent any massive exogenous shock to the contrary, that’s the path for the current war as well. – Foreign Policy
Iran
Iran’s conservatives have ousted two high-profile officials, throwing President Masoud Pezeshkian’s new, moderate government into turmoil and raising questions about its survival. – New York Times
Russia has offered to mediate between the United States and Iran, a source briefed on discussions told Reuters on Tuesday, as the Kremlin vowed to do everything possible to facilitate a peaceful solution to tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program. – Reuters
Britain said on Tuesday it would require the Iranian state to register everything it does to exert political influence in the UK, subjecting Tehran to an elevated tier of scrutiny in light of what it said was increasingly aggressive activity. – Reuters
Iran and Turkey’s foreign ministries summoned their envoys after a diplomatic spat over Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s warning of Tehran against undermining Syria’s stability. – Reuters
Senior retired military commanders are sounding the alarm over Iran’s nuclear capabilities and are calling on President Donald Trump to throw U.S. support behind Israel. In a letter issued by Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) and signed by 77 retired U.S. generals and admirals, they say it’s “time to let Israel finish the job against the Iranian axis.” – Fox News
In a statement to Parliament on the growing threat to the United Kingdom posed by Iran, a British government minister revealed on Tuesday that since the beginning of 2022, MI5 has responded to 20 plots by the Islamic Republic “presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents.” – The Record
Michael Allen writes: Israel’s success against Hamas, its weakening of Hizballah, and the overthrow of Iran’s ally Assad leaves Iran in its most precarious position in decades. For now, Netanyahu and Trump are aligned. But Israel views a nuclear-enabled Iran as an existential threat and may conclude it cannot squander a window of Iranian vulnerability on a gamble that maximum pressure will eventually force Tehran to take a step back from its nuclear program. The Trump administration should consider these exigencies and Israel’s predicament as it re-embarks on a strategy of maximum pressure against Iran. – War on the Rocks
Russia & Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called his heated White House meeting with President Trump last week “regrettable” and set out his vision of a path to peace in his most concerted public effort yet to repair his relationship with the U.S. leader. – Wall Street Journal
More than a decade before Russia’s armed forces poured over the border into Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin stood before world leaders and delivered a long, icy speech demanding a radical overhaul of the world order. – Wall Street Journal
The termination of U.S. support would also erode Ukraine’s capacity to conduct longer-range strikes. And with dwindling air defenses, Ukraine’s ability to protect its own rear positions and cities would suffer, officials and analysts said. – Wall Street Journal
British defence minister John Healey will meet U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in Washington on Thursday to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine, Britain’s ministry of defence said. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he appreciated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s willingness to sign a minerals deal with the United States and come to the negotiating table under his leadership to bring a lasting peace closer in Kyiv’s war with Russia. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he received a letter from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in which the Ukrainian leader expressed willingness to come to the negotiating table over the Russia-Ukraine war. – Reuters
A Russian drone attack late on Tuesday killed one person and triggered power, water and heating cuts in Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa for the second day running, the regional governor said. – Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday he had instructed his defence minister and other officials to secure precise information on military supplies after the United States announced it was pausing assistance. – Reuters
Ukraine is “firmly determined” to continue cooperation with the United States, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Tuesday following the news that Washington paused its crucial military aid. – Reuters
U.S. Vice President JD Vance denied on Tuesday disrespecting Britain and France by describing a planned peacekeeping force in Ukraine as 20,000 troops from some “random country that has not fought a war in 30 or 40 years”. – Reuters
Russia’s main task remains to inflict “maximum defeat” on Ukraine, former president Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Ukraine’s military can keep up the fight against Russian forces for at least a few more months despite President Donald Trump’s decision to pause US arms supplies, according to allied officials, but key munitions could begin to run short sooner. – Bloomberg
Andriy Zagorodnyuk writes: That would be all the more lamentable because the United States has an opportunity to steer events in a much more positive direction—exerting pressure on Russia to end the war and to secure a fair settlement that protects Ukraine’s long-term security.A useful parallel is the experience of South Korea, which, thanks to long-term U.S. military and economic support, has been able build its own defense capabilities and deter North Korea. A similar outcome in Ukraine—a well-prepared armistice supported by credible security arrangements—could bring sustained peace and stability. If executed correctly, this would be a truly historic achievement. – Foreign Affairs
Syria
For two decades, Israel’s next-door neighbor was Bashar al-Assad, a hostile dictator who was weakened by Syria’s sectarian divisions. Now, Israel is trying to neutralize what security officials see as a threat: Turkish-backed Islamists trying to unify Syria. – Wall Street Journal
In the days after the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, rescue workers began to receive calls about the trail of bodies that his loyalists had left in people’s homes. – Washington Post
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, for the first time on the sidelines of the summit held to discuss Gaza’s reconstruction in Cairo on Tuesday. – Reuters
Syrian security forces searched for suspects in the city of Latakia on Tuesday, residents said, after two defence ministry members were killed in an attack blamed by state media on remnants of Bashar al-Assad’s ousted government. – Reuters
Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun held talks Tuesday with his Syrian counterpart Ahmed Al-Sharaa on the sidelines of an Arab summit in Cairo, during which the pair agreed on containing incidents along their shared border. – Agence France-Presse
Qatar Airways plans to increase the frequency of flights to Syria as the carrier builds on growing travel demand to the country emerging from more than a decade of civil war. – Bloomberg
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani said he would take part in a meeting Wednesday of the international chemical weapons watchdog in the Netherlands, nearly three months after Bashar Assad’s ouster. – Agence France-Presse
Syria’s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa on Tuesday called on the international community to pressure Israel to “immediately” withdraw its troops from the south, as he attended his first Arab summit since assuming office. – Agence France-Presse
Middle East & North Africa
Arab leaders adopted an Egyptian reconstruction plan for Gaza on Tuesday that would cost $53 billion and avoid displacing Palestinians from the enclave, in contrast to U.S. President Donald Trump’s”Middle East Riviera” vision. – Reuters
The trial of prominent opposition figures in Tunisia who have been accused of conspiring against the state was postponed on Tuesday until April 11 by the judge, who declined to release those held in custody. – Reuters
Talks to speed a resumption in oil exports from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have been delayed until Thursday because of disagreements over terms between oil companies and the oil ministry, three sources told Reuters. – Reuters
Lebanon’s president ended a visit to Saudi Arabia Tuesday where he discussed regional affairs with the kingdom’s crown prince after which both countries said Israeli troops should withdraw from south Lebanon and only the Lebanese state should have weapons. – Associated Press
Tunisia put dozens of people on trial for treason, including prominent opponents of President Kais Saied, ramping up an unprecedented crackdown that’s drawn rebukes from the United Nations. – Bloomberg
Saudi Arabia is extending an “open invitation” for dissidents abroad to return to the kingdom with promises that they will not be prosecuted. – Newsweek
An Indian national was killed by Jordanian security forces while trying to illegally enter Israel last month, according to the Indian embassy in Jordan. – Jerusalem Post
Eric R. Mandel writes: ISIS will rise again if the new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkey try to ethnically cleanse Kurds from northeast Syria, as Turkey did to the Kurds in northwest Syria a few years ago. Keeping Israel strong is in America’s interest because the Jewish state is the US’s only reliable regional ally, creating opportunities to advance US interests and opening possibilities for solutions to longstanding problems. – Jerusalem Post
Asli Aydintasbas writes: Turkey’s ruling elites finally understand that only a peace deal with the Kurds can create the conditions for the Pax-Turcica they seek and a zone of Turkish influence outside of their borders. In a world without Western oversight, Turkey desperately wants a success story out of Syria, now under the rule of Islamist rebels with close ties to Turkey. The quickest way to get there is through a deal with Syrian Kurds. – Wall Street Journal
Hannah Rae Armstrong writes: But there are good reasons why U.S. President Donald Trump in particular should take up this cause, including that a resolution to the crisis could afford the United States access to a treasure trove of rare-earth minerals in the eastern Atlantic and an opportunity to scrap an outdated UN peacekeeping mission. The current de facto Moroccan sovereignty only prolongs Sahrawis’ exile, and an escalation would carry steep costs for all sides. As conflict between Morocco and the Polisario heats up, it could ignite into a confrontation between Morocco and Algeria, sparking—among other problems—yet another migrant crisis in Europe. – Foreign Affairs
Korean Peninsula
South Korea and the United States have agreed to establish a working-level group to discuss a gas pipeline project in Alaska, energy, shipbuilding, tariffs and non-tariff barriers, South Korea’s Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun said on Tuesday. – Reuters
South Korea will establish a $34 billion policy fund to provide financial support to companies involved in strategic technologies such as chips and autos amid intensifying global competition and protectionism, the government said on Wednesday. – Reuters
North Korea appears close to completing its first airborne early warning aircraft, satellite imagery showed, an asset that experts say will sharply bolster the country’s air force power when it’s deployed. – Associated Press
North Korea is threatening its enemies with nuclear war in the wake of the arrival of an American aircraft carrier, the USS Carl Vinson, in the strategic port of Busan on Korea’s southeastern coast. As often in the past, the strident voice of the North Korean bluster is the younger sister of the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un. – New York Sun
The suspected North Korean hackers behind the theft of more than $1 billion from crypto platform Bybit have completed the initial stage of laundering the funds. – The Record
Matthew Bunn and Jason Ren Jeun Lee write: In short, “reliable” allies might not stay that way forever, and the global effort to stem the spread of nuclear weapons was designed to be even-handed: the NPT bars all parties who don’t have nuclear weapons from acquiring them, and requires all of them to accept International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections, whether they are American friends or not. Any effort to help South Korea on the path to the bomb would be a clear violation of legal obligations the United States led the way in creating. – National Interest
China
China signaled on Tuesday that it is willing to go further than before in its trade tit-for-tat with President Trump by hitting a top American biotechnology company. – New York Times
China will boost its defence spending by 7.2% this year, maintaining a steady growth rate as Beijing faces headwinds from three years of sluggish economic expansion amid mounting geopolitical challenges from Taiwan to Ukraine. – Reuters
Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Wednesday China would “firmly advance” the push for “reunification” with Taiwan while opposing external interference, and strive to work with regular Taiwanese to realize the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. – Reuters
China retaliated swiftly on Tuesday against fresh U.S. tariffs with hikes to import levies covering $21 billion worth of American agricultural and food products, moving the world’s top two economies a step closer towards an all-out trade war. – Reuters
Chinese nationalists on social media are laying claim to a major Philippine island amid a simmering territorial dispute with the U.S. ally. – Newsweek
Bryan Burack writes: Both the Biden Administration and the second Trump Administration have also sought to limit China’s ability to further exploit the de minimis tariff exemption, with President Trump suspending de minimis treatment for all commercial imports from China on February 1, 2025. Across the political spectrum and throughout branches of government, the United States is shifting away from a permanent, unconditional guarantee of privileged market access for China. And rightly so. – Heritage Foundation
South Asia
Overnight clashes between Pakistani and Afghan security forces at the main border crossing between the countries caused thousands of people to flee their homes but the situation had calmed down by Tuesday morning, residents and officials said. – Reuters
A pair of suicide bombers drove two explosive-filled vehicles into a security installation in northwestern Pakistan on Tuesday, killing at least 12 civilians including seven children, police and rescue services said. – Reuters
Pakistan was “well positioned” for the first review of its $7 billion International Monetary Fund bailout programme, the finance minister told Reuters, as talks with the global lender began on Tuesday. – Reuters
India’s top diplomat will visit Russia this week as the two nations look to strengthen ties. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri will be in Moscow for two days starting Thursday, according to senior government officials, who asked not to be named as the visit hasn’t been publicly disclosed so far. – Bloomberg
Asia
Defense stocks in key Asian markets jumped on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations that European nations will boost security spending amid fears that the U.S. could reduce its military presence. – Wall Street Journal
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Wednesday that other nations do not decide its defence budget after U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for a top Pentagon policy role called for Tokyo to spend more to counter China. – Reuters
Taiwan is learning from companies in Ukraine which continue to operate during the country’s fight against Russia, a senior Taiwan official told Reuters on Wednesday, as the island speeds up contingency planning amid heightened Chinese threats. – Reuters
Canada and the United States offered to resettle 48 ethnic Uyghurs held in detention in Thailand over the past decade, sources told Reuters, but Bangkok took no action for fear of upsetting China, where they were covertly deported last week. – Reuters
The Chinese coast guard on Wednesday said it monitored a Philippine civilian boat delivering daily provisions to the “illegally grounded” warship at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal on Tuesday. – Reuters
Donald Trump’s second presidency is already more disruptive than his first, Australia’s foreign minister said on Wednesday, although she held hopes the country might still get an exemption when it comes to tariffs. – Reuters
Russia and Myanmar signed an agreement on Tuesday on construction of a small-scale nuclear plant in Myanmar after talks in Moscow between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing. – Reuters
Taiwan needs to dramatically hike defense spending to around 10% of gross domestic product in order to deter a war with China, President Donald Trump’s nominee to become a top Pentagon policy advisor said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Thailand’s police on Wednesday detained 100 people for their alleged involvement in a scam centre in Cambodia, its first arrest of Thai nationals in a regional crackdown on massive fraud operations. – Reuters
A Philippine city that accepted donations of money and policing equipment from groups connected to Chinese nationals subsequently accused of espionage had received them in good faith and without strings attached, its mayor said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Scam centres that operated along the Thai-Myanmar border for years have drawn fresh attention after the high-profile abduction and release of a Chinese actor in Thailand. The incident sparked a multi-national effort among Thailand, China and Myanmar to dismantle the centres in a network of scam compounds across Southeast Asia. – Reuters
Indonesia is debating expanding the role of the country’s vast military under President Prabowo Subianto, including by allowing active armed forces personnel to take up civilian posts in ways not seen since the dismantling of strongman Suharto’s authoritarian systems decades ago. – Bloomberg
Taiwan is seeking closer security ties with the US and will look to buy more weapons from America, according to a senior official. – Bloomberg
A second Sydney nurse who allegedly appeared in a video that made threats towards Israeli patients has been charged by police. – BBC
Philippine and U.S. Navy SEALs secured a gas and oil platform in the South China Sea in the latest joint combined exchange training between the two special operations units near the disputed waters last week. – USNI News
Nino Lezhava writes: This reflects the fact that, while the China-Georgia strategic partnership document emphasizes the joint promotion of equity, justice, democracy, freedom and the UN Charter, both sides embrace one-party rule and regard US restrictions as meddling in Georgia’s internal affairs […]Countering China’s influence requires a strategic presence, enforcing democratic principles, investing in critical infrastructure, strengthening diplomatic and military partnerships, and pressuring Tbilisi to limit Beijing’s expansion. Will the US take these key steps to leverage influence and curb the BRI’s reach? – Center for European Policy Analysis
Wilson Beaver writes: Taiwan should recognize the peril of its situation and increase defense spending to at least as large a percentage of GDP as the United States. […]Thankfully for Taiwan, there’s an easy place to start: by cutting climate change spending and using the money for defense instead. This move will help Taiwanese defense planners attempting to ensure their national security, but it’ll also help American conservatives trying to make the case for continued American support of Taiwan. By dramatically increasing defense spending and cutting politicized climate spending, Taiwan will better enable its military to deter aggression, help its economy by removing barriers to growth, and demonstrate to American policymakers that it’s serious about its security and national defense. – National Interest
Europe
Germany will exempt military spending from its strict fiscal rules and create an off-budget fund of 500 billion euros to finance infrastructure spending, laying the ground for a big boost in the country’s defense budget. – Wall Street Journal
Teeming with underground riches, Greenland might set the scene for a modern gold rush. President Trump, for one, covets Greenland’s deposits of critical minerals, some of the largest in the Western Hemisphere. But as the visiting Australian company, Energy Transition Minerals, has discovered, securing them is a daunting task. – Wall Street Journal
Vice President JD Vance has sparked a storm of criticism in Britain after declaring that an American economic deal in Ukraine was a “better security guarantee than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn’t fought a war in 30 or 40 years.” – New York Times
A top European official on Tuesday laid out a sweeping framework aimed at rearming the continent, trying to fill a void as President Trump retreated from supporting Ukraine and pressured Europe to spend more on its own defense. – New York Times
U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his interest in acquiring Greenland in his address to Congress on Tuesday, painting a picture of prosperity and safety for the “incredible people” of the island, an autonomous territory of the kingdom of Denmark. – Reuters
Belarusian leader and Russian ally Alexander Lukashenko said in remarks published on Wednesday that Moscow and Minsk benefit from how the United States treats Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the rift between Washington and the EU. – Reuters
Serbian opposition lawmakers threw smoke grenades and used pepper spray inside parliament on Tuesday to protest against the government and to support demonstrating students, with one legislator suffering a stroke during the chaos. – Reuters
Finland’s foreign minister said on Tuesday that Washington’s pivot towards Russia is unlikely to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, and that President Donald Trump would likely discover this in the end. – Reuters
For the past two months, tech billionaire Elon Musk has promoted Germany’s far-right party in at least two dozen posts on his X platform, interviewed its leader, and told his 219 million followers it was the country’s “only hope.” – Reuters
British finance minister Rachel Reeves said she would speed up defence procurement, after the UK announced an increase in military spending last week in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for Europe to do more to protect itself. – Reuters
Two former Credit Suisse managing directors have been banned from the UK financial services industry after they pleaded guilty in the United States over their role in Mozambique’s “tuna bond” scandal, Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Finland’s security and intelligence service Supo is closely watching how U.S. intelligence positions itself towards Russia under the Trump administration, Supo’s chief said on Tuesday. – Reuters
The frequency of cable incidents in the Baltic Sea has been “exceptional” in recent years, but state actors have more effective ways of performing underwater sabotage than by dragging anchors, Finland’s intelligence service chief said. – Reuters
France’s prime minister decried the U.S. pause on providing military aid to Ukraine as “unbearable” on Tuesday, describing it as tantamount to abandoning Ukrainians and allowing for a possible victory by Russia. – Associated Press
Ireland is in a “serious period of reform” when it comes to defence and security, the tánaiste (Irish deputy prime minister) has said. Earlier on Tuesday, the Irish Cabinet approved draft legislation to change the rules that govern how its military can be used abroad. – BBC
Jillian Kay Melchior writes: Russia and other adversaries exploit the asymmetric advantage of the West’s strict adherence to international law. Europeans fear Russia would take a forceful response as an invitation to violate its own obligations under the convention, to which it is also a party. But Moscow has no respect for international law, making Europe’s diligence about it a mug’s game. – Wall Street Journal
Ben Hodges, Alexander Crowther, and Jahara ‘Franky’ Matisek write: Decisive action in Ukraine will not only safeguard Europe’s sovereignty but also reaffirm the West’s commitment to deterring aggression. The deployment of Western forces would set a precedent for future European-led security operations. As Ukraine fights for its survival, European leaders must ensure they are not merely spectators but active participants in shaping the security of their region. Without immediate and sustained military commitments, the very foundations of Europe are at risk. The time for debate has passed — Europe must act. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Fabian Hoffmann writes: To prevent this, European leaders must make a concerted effort to demonstrate resolve. Wanting to avoid risks for one’s own societies is not inherently wrong, but leaders must be more aware of how their rhetoric — even when intended for domestic audiences — affects the credibility of their deterrence abroad. Fear is natural and entirely human. But projecting it outward risks inviting aggression, especially as the perceived balance of resolve moves further in favor of Russia. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Agathe Demarais writes: If Europe manages to remain united—a big caveat, to be sure—it has huge sanctions leverage over Moscow in the form of trade ties and private-sector presence—two trump cards that Washington cannot play. This does not mean that U.S. sanctions, in particular measures restricting Moscow’s ability to place external debt in U.S. financial markets and access U.S. energy technology to maintain oil and gas production, do not bite. Yet for the Kremlin, the lifting of only U.S. sanctions is unlikely to be enough. – Foreign Policy
Africa
South Sudanese forces have arrested a senior military official allied with First Vice President Riek Machar, and deployed troops around Machar’s residence, risking a 2018 peace deal that ended a civil war, his spokesperson said. – Reuters
One million more people in Somalia could face crisis levels of hunger in coming months due to a forecast drought during the next crop cycle, the World Food Programme said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied groups signed a transitional constitution on Tuesday that takes them a step closer to setting up a parallel government during a two-year-old war with the army that threatens to split the country. – Reuters
Rwanda is asking Britain for a 50 million-pound ($63.62 million) payment over a cancelled asylum deal, a source close to the government in Kigali said on Tuesday, after London paused some bilateral aid to the African country over the war in Congo. – Reuters
The United Nations has launched an emergency appeal to raise $11.2 million to help fund Uganda’s response to an Ebola outbreak that has killed two people, after the country’s health budget was strained by U.S. cuts to foreign aid. – Reuters
Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embalo said on Monday he would run for a second term in November, backtracking on earlier vows to step down and potentially stoking tensions over when his current term ends and over postponed elections. – Reuters
Children in conflict-ravaged Sudan as young as a year old have been raped since the beginning of 2024, according to the U.N. children’s agency Tuesday, which said sexual violence is being used as a tactic of war. – Associated Press
Germany’s development ministry said Tuesday it will suspend new financial commitments to Rwanda over that country’s alleged support of the M23 rebels in neighboring eastern Congo. – Associated Press
The Democratic Republic of Congo has offered the US exclusive access to critical minerals and infrastructure projects in exchange for security assistance as it battles a rebellion backed by neighboring Rwanda. – Bloomberg
The Sahel region of Africa is the “epicentre of global terrorism” and now, for the first time, accounts for “over half of all terrorism-related deaths”, according to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). – BBC
Michael Rubin writes: Decades of poor management and oversight led USAID not only to hemorrhage money, but also to undercut U.S. security. As DOGE chief Elon Musk and Secretary of State Marco Rubio reformulate U.S. foreign assistance, it is essential to study and replicate the rare successes. If they define U.S. interests as peace, deradicalization, and development in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, the Middle East or stabilizing post-conflict societies like South Yemen or Syrian Kurdistan more generally, they will find no better model than the little school that could in Somaliland. – American Enterprise Institute
The Americas
The Trump administration said on Tuesday it was ending a license that the U.S. had granted to oil producer Chevron since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil, after Washington accused President Nicolas Maduro of not making progress on electoral reforms and migrant returns. – Reuters
Former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo went on trial Tuesday charged with rebellion, grave abuse of authority and perturbing public tranquility in a case that has polarized the South American nation. – Associated Press
Authorities in the Dominican Republic said Tuesday that they seized 36,000 cartridges, 23 firearms and more than two dozen rifle and pistol chargers from a Miami shipment destined for Haiti. – Associated Press
North America
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday that his tariffs on Canadian imports were “a very dumb thing to do” and said Ottawa was striking back immediately at its closest ally. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump’s new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, along with fresh duties on Chinese goods, sparking trade wars that could slam economic growth and raise prices for Americans still smarting from years of high inflation. – Reuters
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox Business on Tuesday that President Donald Trump will reach a middle ground with Canada and Mexico on tariffs and an announcement to that effect was expected on Wednesday. – Reuters
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Tuesday condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and said her government would respond with its own measures, without immediately providing details. – Reuters
In response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the leader of Canada’s most populous province threatened to cut energy to the United States with “a smile on my face,” adding that “they need to feel the pain.” – Fox News
United States
A consortium of investors led by BlackRock agreed to buy majority stakes in ports on either end of the Panama Canal, putting U.S. firms in control of two ports that President Trump raised as a security concern because of their connection to China. – Wall Street Journal
The sweeping tariffs on Canadian, Mexican and Chinese products that President Trump imposed on Tuesday could strain the system that collects import duties and the government agencies that enforce those fees, trade and legal experts said. – New York Times
Donald Trump’s nominee to be U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, pledged on Tuesday to strengthen NATO and said the Republican president remains committed to the alliance. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said he wanted to cut the federal funding of colleges that allow what he called “illegal protests” in a social media post that civil rights groups called an attack on the freedoms of speech and assembly. – Reuters
Elbridge Colby, the nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy, said at his Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing on Tuesday that he now views a nuclear-armed Iran as an “existential” threat to the United States homeland and said he would provide military options to the administration to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon if necessary. – Jewish Insider
Cybersecurity
The Commerce Department is examining changes to a $42.5 billion Biden-era program aimed at expanding internet access around the country with new rules that will make it easier for Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite-internet service, to tap in to rural broadband funding, said people familiar with the plans. – Wall Street Journal
Canada’s privacy watchdog said on Monday he was seeking a court order against the operator of Pornhub.com and other adult entertainment websites to ensure it obtained the consent of people whose images were featured. – Reuters
Tech giants Facebook and Instagram owner Meta Platforms, Snapchat, and TikTok have urged Australia to reconsider a decision to exempt Alphabet’s YouTube from its laws banning social media for children younger than 16. – Reuters
The Iran-based administrator behind a darknet marketplace was sanctioned by the Treasury Department on Tuesday, one year after the platform was taken down in a law enforcement operation. – The Record
As Salt Typhoon and other hacking groups continue targeting U.S. telecoms, a bipartisan bill that cleared a key House panel Tuesday aims to formalize a more cyber-focused role for the federal agency focused on those wireless networks. – Cyberscoop
State and local cybersecurity personnel are the backbone of protecting critical infrastructure in the U.S., and as such, should be treated like military personnel and members of the “front line” defense by the government, a retired navy admiral said Tuesday. – Statescoop
Lawmakers on Tuesday reintroduced the Children and Teens’ Online Privacy Protection Act, a bill that would greatly restrict how digital platforms handle kids’ data. – The Record
A provincial court in Barcelona has ordered that three former senior executives at NSO Group, a prominent spyware manufacturer, be indicted for their alleged role in a high-profile hacking scandal in which at least 63 Catalan civil society members were targeted with the company’s surveillance technology. – The Record
A relatively unknown threat actor targeted several organizations in the United Arab Emirates, — including those involved in aviation, satellite communications and critical transportation infrastructure — with a newly discovered backdoor that researchers have dubbed Sosano. – The Record
Defense
As part of his sweeping national address on Tuesday night, President Donald Trump promised to establish a new office of shipbuilding within the White House to revitalize the industry and bolster American naval strength. – Defense News
Defense Department leaders and congressional lawmakers are eyeing major acquisition reforms, bureaucratic fixes and new funding flexibilities for certain emerging military capabilities in the early days of the second Trump administration, officials said Tuesday on Capitol Hill. – Defensescoop
With limited resources and funds, an Army unit is looking to make its own drones at a fraction of the cost of commercially available systems procured through traditional acquisition processes. – Fedscoop
Long War
President Trump revealed Tuesday in his speech to Congress that the U.S. had taken custody of an Afghan involved in planning the deadly 2021 suicide attack at the Kabul airport that Trump has called “the most embarrassing moment in the history of our country.” – Wall Street Journal
Pakistan’s role in the arrest of Mohammad Sharifullah, who was allegedly responsible for attack on U.S. troops in 2021, was due to the renewal of counter-terrorism cooperation with the United States, a Pakistan security official said on Wednesday. – Reuters
The Trump administration on Tuesday re-designated the Houthi militant group in Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization, reversing a decision made by President Joe Biden in 2021, after more than a year of attacks on U.S. Navy and commercial vessels at sea. – Washington Post
Russian anti-terrorism units killed four militants affiliated with the Islamic State insurgent group in the mainly Muslim region of Dagestan, Russian news agencies reported on Wednesday, citing Russia’s top anti-terrorism agency. – Reuters
An embattled Muslim advocacy group, one of the largest non-profits operating in the US, has agreed to settle a case with a former employee rather than open its books to reveal sources of foreign funding. – The Post Millennial
Salem Alketbi writes: American strategy may support any regional or international military effort aimed at restricting Houthi movement and permanently eliminating their threats. However, the US is unlikely to lead this campaign, much less be its driving force. Trump believes his role is limited to showing firmness and discipline and creating favorable conditions for success in this area. This approach will be reinforced after reaching the hostage-ceasefire agreement in Gaza. – Jerusalem Post