Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The U.S. and European powers are giving Iran a last chance to start cooperating with a United Nations atomic agency probe of Tehran’s nuclear activities, backing away from a formal censure of Iran in a bid to revive nuclear diplomacy between Washington and Tehran. – Wall Street Journal 

Republicans are pressing the State Department to back an arms embargo on Iran amid strikes on coalition forces in Iraq that are believed to be from militias with ties to Tehran. – The Hill 

Iran has agreed to sit down with international technical experts investigating the discovery of uranium particles at three former undeclared sites in the country, the head of the U.N. atomic watchdog said Thursday, after months of frustration at Tehran’s lack of a credible explanation. – Associated Press 

U.S. President Joe Biden’s refusal to offer upfront sanctions relief to Iran may have angered Tehran’s clerical rulers but it has won some praise at home despite his failure so far to draw Iran into nuclear talks or deter attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq. – Reuters

Iran has given encouraging signs in recent days about opening informal talks with world powers and the United States, two European sources said on Thursday after European powers scrapped plans to criticise Tehran at the U.N. nuclear watchdog. – Reuters

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that lifting U.S. sanctions on Iran over its nuclear work and returning to a 2015 nuclear deal will contribute to regional stability and economic prosperity. – Reuters

U.S. senators peppered President Joe Biden’s nominee to be the No. 2 official at the State Department with questions about Iran on Wednesday, a sign she could face difficulty winning support from Republicans even as she warned against “nostalgia” for the Iran nuclear deal she helped broker. – Reuters

President Biden agreed to scuttle a resolution denouncing Iran’s secret nuclear research, as three European allies dropped a planned confrontation in another attempt to facilitate talks to rehabilitate the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. – Washington Examiner 

A court in Iran has ordered the dissolution of a prominent Iranian NGO that fights poverty. […]Hard-liners have in recent years criticized the charity and accused it of being misused for political purposes and damaging the Islamic republic by highlighting problems, as well as working with foreign countries and international bodies. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The chance that Iran would risk damaging the coastline of Gaza or its Hezbollah friends in Lebanon – who all share a coastline with Israel – would appear to be a major risk for Tehran. Nevertheless, recent incidents like the reported Iranian cyberattack against Israel last year, could mean that the Islamic Republic is using every asymmetric means of attack at its disposal, including the environment. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The key questions linking Iran to the attacks, such as signal intelligence or some kind of courier that brings the orders to Kataib Hezbollah, and the planning structure or even the garage where the rocket trucks were assembled are key parts of Iran’s threats in Iraq. Finding those would require more cooperation from Baghdad. So far, Tehran continues to have the plausible deniability it wants with the rocket attacks in Iraq. The US under the Biden administration appears hesitant to launch airstrikes the way Trump’s administration did. – Jerusalem Post

Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday spoke to US Vice President Kamala Harris, with the conversation focusing on the pandemic, the Iranian nuclear program, and the International Criminal Court’s decision to open an investigation into Israel over alleged war crimes, his office said. – Times of Israel 

Outgoing deputy Mossad chief “A.” has said that former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s 12 principles for resolving the standoff with Iran were so unrealistic that they were “like seeking to transform the Iranians into Meretz.”  – Jerusalem Post

The IDF has completed the construction of the underground concrete wall between Israel and the Gaza Strip, as part of the effort to prevent terrorists from crossing into Israel via cross-border tunnels. – Jerusalem Post

The United Arab Emirates’ first ambassador to Israel, Mohammad Mahmoud Al Khajah, completed his preliminary visit to Israel Friday after meeting with the country’s top leadership and scouting out suitable locations for the embassy and his home. – Times of Israel

Defense Minister Benny Gantz on Thursday said the Israel Defense Forces is continuously updating its plans for a prospective military strike on Iranian nuclear sites. – Times of Israel

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday welcomed the International Criminal Court’s decision to open an investigation into war crimes allegedly committed by Israelis and Palestinians. – Times of Israel

Greenpeace Israel released a statement on Thursday dismissing Environmental Protection Minister Gila Gamliel’s recent claim that Iranian “eco-terrorism” was the cause of Israel’s recent ecological disaster, claiming that it is irresponsible, lacks concrete evidence and “reeks of election propaganda.” – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The use of UAVs for maritime missions is increasing. At Italy’s Sigonella Naval Air Station, NATO is supposed to be deploying a Global Hawk derivative. Given the increasing threats in maritime areas, and Iran’s threats particularly to shipping, Israel will need to focus on this arena. The case of the Emerald is a warning and a lesson. – Jerusalem Post

Lebanon

Protesters in Lebanon burned tires and closed several major roads on Thursday as the severe economic crisis gripping the country continued to spiral out of control with no progress on the formation of a new Cabinet. – Washington Post 

The U.S. is considering sanctions against Lebanon’s long-serving central bank chief as a broader investigation into the alleged embezzlement of public funds in the country gathers pace, according to four people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg 

Defense Minister Benny Gantz revealed a classified map during a Fox News interview on Thursday to demonstrate that Hezbollah has “hundreds of thousands of missiles” and asked “what is going to happen to Lebanon?” – Jerusalem Post 

Lebanon on Thursday blamed Israel for a massive oil spill that polluted both Israeli and Lebanese coastlines as lawmakers were set to meet to approve filing a complaint against Jerusalem to the UN.  – Ynet

Dalal Yassine writes: As the impact of the pandemic and ongoing financial crisis have made clear, Lebanon can no longer ignore its obligations under international law. – Middle East Institute

Middle East & North Africa

A Turkish court trying 26 Saudi nationals in absentia for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi has refused to admit as evidence a recent US intelligence report implicating the kingdom’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, despite a petition from the journalist’s fiancee, Hatice Cengiz. – The Guardian

İbrahim Karagül, former editor in chief of the Yeni Şafak daily, which is a mouthpiece of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling AKP, wrote a February 25, 2021 column titled “We’re Calling On The US, Europe… Stop Threatening Turkey! End This Hypocrisy Once And For All!” Addressing the U.S. and Europe, Karagül writes: “Stop threatening Turkey. Enough with your pressure-filled statements, caveats, words aimed at bringing us into line.” – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Yigal Carmon and Alberto M. Fernandez write: And China is not ignoring the Arab world either. China’s economic power there is being augmented by an investment in soft power, in both Arabic-language media and in government-sponsored relationship building. This has garnered tangible benefits, as Arab governments have downplayed China’s repression of its Uyghur Muslims. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Tharwa Boulifi writes: As a young Tunisian woman raised with the principles of the revolution, I’m not willing to give up the gains of the last 10 years. For me and many young people, we need a second revolution—a more inclusive one that will hopefully provide the equality and justice we’ve been seeking since the last decade. – Newsweek 

Gregg Roman writes: Helping Israel defeat Palestinian rejectionism while ensuring the post-conflict stability and prosperity of the Palestinian polity would ensure a greater possibility of peace and security for both Israelis and Palestinians.[…]It would also break down the last barrier towards full relations between Israel and the wider Sunni world, thus allowing for the sole focus for both to be on breaking the back of the Iranian ever-growing stranglehold on the region. – Arutz Sheva

China

One year after China was battered by the coronavirus, the government promised on Friday a robust return to economic growth of “over 6 percent,” a signal that China is ready to do what it takes to keep the world’s second-largest economy running strongly. – New York Times

After four days of hearings, dozens of weary pro-democracy activists charged with subversion under the national security law found themselves back where they started: in detention. In a case that has emerged as the clearest illustration yet of the pressures on Hong Kong’s courts as Beijing cracks down on the territory, lawyers were unable to secure even temporary freedom for the 47 pro-democracy activists charged Sunday with conspiracy to commit subversion, which is punishable by up to life in prison. – Washington Post 

China will resolutely deter any separatist activity seeking Taiwan’s independence but is committed to promoting the peaceful growth of relations across the Taiwan Strait and China’s “reunification”, Premier Li Keqiang said on Friday. – Reuters

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged on Friday to promote business ties with the United States based on “mutual respect” that benefit both countries. – Reuters

American attitudes toward China have soured significantly in the past three years, with 70% of those surveyed for a report published on Thursday saying Washington should stand up to Beijing over its human rights record even if it damages economic ties. – Reuters

China’s government set a conservative economic growth target for this year, shifting its focus from recovery mode to longer-term challenges like reining in debt and reducing technological dependence on the U.S. – Bloomberg

David Ignatius writes: The trick will be keeping the U.S. economy open enough that it continues to draw the world’s most talented people, even as officials move to protect America’s lead in key technologies. The industrial policy the AI commission recommends could unlock talent and innovation. But if officials aren’t careful, government intervention could also afflict our best companies with the dead weight and dysfunction of our broken political system. We need government to spawn brainpower, not bureaucracy. – Washington Post 

Josh Rogin writes: Whatever else might have been accomplished with Beijing during Trump’s tumultuous term, those days were gone. In their place was a realization that China’s rise now much more directly affected Americans’ security, prosperity, freedom and public health. It was an awakening Xi surely didn’t anticipate and one that threatened to upend his grand plans to restore China’s place atop the international order. – Washington Post 

James Stavridis writes: China controls roughly 80% of the rare-earths market, between what it mines itself and processes in raw material from elsewhere. If it decided to wield the weapon of restricting the supply — something it has repeatedly threatened to do — it would create a significant challenge for manufacturers and a geopolitical predicament for the industrialized world. – Bloomberg  

Riley Walters writes: It’s fair to say the disruptions the pandemic caused for both the American and Chinese economies had a lot to do with China’s failure to buy more goods.[…]Negotiators will need to discuss why China failed to make its purchases and come up with a solution. That or withdraw from the deal altogether. President Biden wants to consult with allies first to come up with a comprehensive China strategy. But there are two outstanding problems with the deal that allies might not be able to fix. – The Hill

Demetri Sevastopulo writes: Another indication will be how Biden handles an order that Trump signed to bar Americans from investing in Chinese companies with alleged ties to the People’s Liberation Army. The Treasury recently pushed back the implementation deadline by several months, as part of a broader review of many of the sanction-related actions taken by Trump. […]While Biden sizes up China with a harsher eye, Beijing has also taken a more jaundiced view of Washington, suggesting that relations will remain choppy. – Financial Times

Asia

The United States on Thursday unveiled new measures to punish Myanmar’s army for its Feb. 1 coup, blocking the ministries of defense and home affairs and top military conglomerates from certain types of trade. – Reuters

Police in Myanmar on Friday opened fired on protesters against last month’s military coup, killing one man, as international condemnation rained down on the junta, with the U.N. Security Council set to discuss the crisis. – Reuters

Myanmar’s junta lost a tug of war over leadership of its U.N. mission in New York and the United States unveiled new sanctions targeting military conglomerates after the deaths of dozens of civilians protesting against last month’s coup. – Reuters

Australian broadcaster SBS said it was suspending the broadcast of Chinese TV news services CGTN and CCTV after receiving a human rights complaint. – Reuters

A clash was averted over who represents Myanmar at the United Nations in New York following a Feb. 1 military coup, after the junta’s replacement quit and the Myanmar U.N. mission confirmed that Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun remained in the job. – Reuters

Singapore’s foreign minister said on Friday it was a “national shame” for the armed forces of a country to use weapons against their own people as he called on Myanmar’s military rulers to seek a peaceful solution to the unrest in the country. – Reuters

Myanmar’s military rulers attempted to move about $1 billion held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York days after seizing power on Feb. 1, prompting U.S. officials to put a freeze on the funds, according to three people familiar with the matter, including one U.S. government official. – Reuters

The White House said on Thursday that the targeting of journalists and dissidents by Myanmar’s military coup leaders is concerning and said the issue is a frequent topic in diplomatic conversations. – Reuters

The United Nations human rights investigator on Myanmar said on Thursday the military there has murdered, beaten and unlawfully arrested protesters since its illegal Feb. 1 coup and he called for wide-ranging punitive sanctions. – Reuters

Thailand’s military on Thursday said it was not behind a network of Facebook accounts that the social media giant took down on the grounds they were using deceptive behaviour to influence public debate. – Reuters

Leaders of the “Quad” bloc will hold their first-ever meeting, as the four democracies of the U.S., Japan, India and Australia seek to counter China’s rising influence. – Bloomberg

Charles Dunst writes: Southeast Asia is now ground zero in the U.S.-China competition that many commentators and policymakers consider Beijing to be winning. Much has been made of U.S. President Joe Biden’s need to refocus American attention on the region. Less discussed are the difficulties of deepening engagement with less-than-liberal allies and partners there, such as Thailand and Vietnam, without neglecting democracy and human rights. – Foreign Policy

Europe

Northern Irish loyalist paramilitary groups have told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson they are temporarily withdrawing support for the 1998 peace agreement due to concerns over the Brexit deal. – Reuters 

Northern Ireland’s first minister said the European Union’s promise of legal action over the UK extending grace periods for trade showed its priority was protecting the trading bloc, not the Belfast peace agreement. – Reuters

NATO officials are scrambling to understand the extent to which Chinese investments in key transportation nodes throughout Europe could impede the alliance’s ability to move troops quickly in case of a conflict. – Defense News 

The US will temporarily lift punitive tariffs on £550m worth of UK exports such as Scotch whisky and Stilton cheese, imposed as part of a row with the EU over subsidies to Boeing and Airbus, in an attempt to de-escalate one of the longest trade disputes in modern history. – Financial Times

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned against any attempts to “divide Europe from North America” and said that the European Union “cannot defend” the continent alone amid the threat of terrorism and Russia’s “destabilizing behavior.” – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Katia Glod writes: The opposition should seek to erode the lower echelons of the regime by encouraging sympathizers to become involved. That would certainly be difficult, but combined with other efforts to build civil society and formulate new democratic policies, such action could help to create a parallel polity in Belarus, based on modern democratic principles, which would gradually grow in strength. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Edward Lucas writes: There’s a mystery in France where the Chinese readout of a Xi-Macron phone call spoke of  “proactive discussions” on cooperation in central and eastern Europe. Macron’s flirtation with a Kremlin reset has done a lot of damage there already. […]Oddly, the Elysée take on the call made no mention of this (or of human rights). But French naval plans for the South China Sea are unchanged and Germany’s confirmed that it is sending a frigate there this summer. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Vlad Kobets and David J. Kramer writes: Before even more innocent Belarusian pro-democracy protesters are maimed or killed, there must be an immediate halt to the brutal crackdown. A thorough and independent investigation is necessary to look into the use of near-lethal weapons and ammunition, their origin, and those who authorized their illegal use. Lukashenko blames outside forces for the protests against his rule, but in reality, the only outside player complicit in the violent suppression of peaceful citizens is Putin’s Russia. – Foreign Policy 

Steven Kenney writes: Relations between the U.S. and Black Sea countries are complex. The Western-oriented Georgia and Romania have shown unconditional support for greater U.S. involvement. Others, like Turkey and Russia, will continue to challenge Western involvement. And while relations between Black Sea countries reflect similarly complex cooperation and conflict patterns, common among them is a hope that the Biden Administration will bring a shift in U.S. policy in the region. – Middle East Institute  

John R. Deni writes: In his quest for a NATO “reset,” President Biden has declared that “America is back,” offered a renewed commitment to transatlantic cooperation, and — like every post-WWII president — called for Europe to do its part for collective defense. But his measured tone on the latter point stands in sharp contrast to that of his immediate predecessor. – Defense One

Latin America

Venezuela sent gold to Mali in 2020 via Russian-owned planes to exchange for euros and U.S. dollars that President Nicolas Maduro’s government used to remain afloat despite U.S. sanctions, an opposition representative said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

A surge in poverty and unemployment in Latin America caused by the coronavirus pandemic threatens to set the region back by more than a decade, a United Nations agency has warned. – Financial Times 

Last year may have been the worst in the history of the global aviation industry but for Nicolas Maduro’s ragtag Venezuelan airline, business boomed. […]The airline, which is banned from flying to the U.S. as part of that country’s wide-ranging sanctions against the Maduro regime, now has regular flights to five countries. Three of them are led by Maduro’s political allies — Bolivia, Iran and Mexico — and there are plans to add a Moscow connection soon. – Bloomberg 

Robert Muggah writes: Brazil faces dark days ahead. Bolsonaro’s missteps are also jeopardizing global efforts to fight the pandemic. The COVID-19 nightmare unfolding in Brazil is a searing indictment of pandemic populism. It is also a flashing light for other global leaders, including in the U.S., to pressure Bolsonaro to get his house in order before it burns everyone else’s down. – NPR

Cybersecurity

Convening in Beijing for the most important political conference of the year, Chinese leaders on Friday issued a call to bolster scientific and technological competitiveness, floated changes to Hong Kong’s electoral system and announced a pickup in military spending. – Washington Post 

Hacker groups linked to Russian intelligence conducted cyber-attacks against top Lithuanian officials and decision-makers last year and used the Baltic nation’s technology infrastructure as a base to hit targets elsewhere, a report by Lithuania’s intelligence service said Thursday. – Associated Press 

The U.S. Defense Department struggles to outline cybersecurity requirements in contracts for weapon systems, though the agency made important strides to improve those platforms’ cyber protections, a congressional watchdog announced Thursday. – C4ISRNET 

Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha says he has assigned the Royal Thai Army to investigate after Facebook Inc. removed 185 accounts and groups allegedly engaged in an information-influencing operation in Thailand run by the military. – Associated Press 

Bob Scher writes: The DoD will need to build expertise and partner with federally focused experts in the private sector to make sure U.S. tech companies are fully vetted for the government market. The DoD needs to leverage the tools of the private sector to evaluate companies, make strategic investments and vet dual-use commercial technology. – Defense News

Long War

The following report compiles all significant security incidents confirmed by New York Times reporters throughout Afghanistan from the past seven days. It is necessarily incomplete as many local officials refuse to confirm casualty information. The report includes government claims of insurgent casualty figures, but in most cases these cannot be independently verified by The Times. – New York Times

Russia’s Federal Security Service said on Thursday it had thwarted a planned “terror” attack on a power site in Kaliningrad region and that it had arrested a suspect, the Interfax news agency reported. – Reuters

A roadside bomb killed a civilian and two fighters travelling in a convoy of vehicles belonging to Yemen’s main southern separatist forces in Aden city on Thursday, the militia said. – Reuters

A Syrian man who killed a German tourist and seriously injured another in an Islamist-motivated knife attack last year in the eastern city of Dresden has been charged with murder and attempted murder, Germany’s top prosecutor said on Thursday. – Reuters

An Oklahoma man was sentenced to more than three years in prison for illegally smuggling firearms to the Middle East to help fight the Islamic State there, according to federal prosecutors. – Fox News 

Three terror plots have been foiled during the coronavirus pandemic in the UK, counter-terrorism chiefs revealed, despite a drop in arrests during the period. – The Guardian

A “worrying” number of children and teenagers are being recruited to terrorist groups during the coronavirus lockdown, the foreign secretary has told MPs. Dominic Raab was addressing the Commons about the UK’s fight against Islamic State. – Sky News (UK)