Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israel is blowing up Iran’s police state to clear the way for a revolt WSJ Editorial: The Bibi-made-Trump-do-it canard Iran escalates attacks on Gulf nations as conflict widens Trump weighs backing militias to dislodge Iran’s regime Mojtaba Khamenei, seen as possible next Supreme Leader, has survived assault on Iran, sources say NYT’s Ross Douthat: The Iran war is Trump’s war Syria sends thousands of troops to Lebanon border, sources say CIA station in Saudi capital hit in drone attack Kuwaiti jet fighter mistakenly downed U.S. F-15s, initial reports say China building subs that can strike U.S. from closer to home, U.S. navy warns Pakistan says its forces killed 67 Afghan troops in cross-border clashes. Kabul rejects the claim U.S. expands fight against Latin American drug gangs with Ecuador operationIn The News
Israel
Israel’s military is targeting the Iranian police state that brutally suppressed protests and killed thousands of people, with the hope of clearing the way for a popular revolt to overthrow the Islamic government. – Wall Street Journal
Israel’s U.N. envoy Danny Danon said on Tuesday that Israel and the United States now control almost all of Iran’s airspace and that superiority would be evident in the next few days. – Reuters
An Israeli airstrike on Tuesday hit the building of a body tasked with electing Iran’s new supreme leader, the IDF’s spokesman said, after former leader Ali Khamenei was killed by Israel on Saturday. – Agence-France Presse
Israeli Air Force jets on Tuesday destroyed a secret underground site on the outskirts of Tehran where Iran transferred much of its nuclear program after the war with Israel in June, the IDF said. – Times of Israel
Israel conducted a covert extraction of part of its embassy staff in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday after two Iranian terror plots targeting the diplomatic team were foiled in recent days, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel, confirming Hebrew media reports. – Times of Israel
US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee on Tuesday advised US citizens in Israel wishing to leave the country to do so via Egypt, hours after the US urged all of its citizens in the Middle East to immediately evacuate the region amid fighting with Iran. – Times of Israel
Israel hacked into Tehran’s extensive traffic camera network in order to track the bodyguards of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian officials ahead of Saturday’s assassination of the supreme leader, the Financial Times reported on Monday, citing two people familiar with the matter. – Times of Israel
Sirens sounded across central Israel on Wednesday morning as Iran launched another volley of ballistic missiles. No injuries were reported, but Israeli Fire and Rescue Services stated that multiple fragments landed in central Israel. – Jerusalem Post
A first aid center established in Beersheba after a missile strike hit a residential neighborhood has provided shelter to 1,083 people who were forced to evacuate their apartments, including 577 families and households who suddenly found themselves homeless. – Jerusalem Post
Israel will remove the entire Shiite axis threat led by Iran and Hezbollah, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir said Tuesday night during a visit to an IDF air defense command center. – Jerusalem Post
The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) rose on Tuesday, and the screens continued to be green, three days into the Israeli-American war on Iran that plunged the region into instability. – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: Mr. Netanyahu deserves credit for seeing the Iranian threat clearly and early and not wavering. He paved the way to June’s victory by weakening Iran and its proxies, then took on the risk until the U.S. joined. Far from manipulating Mr. Trump, he has made Israel the most effective force multiplier America has. It’s to Mr. Trump’s credit is that he seizes the opportunities an ally creates to defeat shared adversaries. – Wall Street Journal
Shimon Refaeli writes: This isn’t a temporary alliance between ideological rivals born out of tactical necessity. Israel and the Gulf states aren’t enemies forced to cooperate. The normalization process began long before the current escalation. The Abraham Accords created a political and economic infrastructure. The security dimension is a natural extension, akin to the U.S.-Europe alliance within NATO, which includes several longstanding rivals. The Gulf states have opened their eyes, and a diplomatic window of opportunity has opened. What looks today like regional escalation may prove to be the founding moment of a new regional order. – Wall Street Journal
Iran
The four-day Middle East conflict widened on Tuesday as Iran stepped up missile and drone attacks in the region and Israel hit targets in Lebanon. Iran targeted Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bahrain, continuing its counterattack after the U.S. and Israel began their joint attack on Saturday. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump is open to supporting groups in Iran willing to take up arms to dislodge the regime, U.S. officials said, as he continues to mull several options publicly and privately about who should succeed the country’s fallen leader. – Wall Street Journal
If Iran, along with Venezuela, is soon ruled by a regime friendly or at least not hostile toward the U.S., that would neutralize two oil exporters who have regularly been the cause of supply disruptions in recent generations. Russia would remain the only adversarial oil power with significant sway, and its clout would be diminished. – Wall Street Journal
The senior clerics responsible for selecting Iran’s next supreme leader met on Tuesday to deliberate, and the son of the slain former leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emerged as the clear front-runner, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the deliberations. – New York Times
Iranian strikes conducted over the weekend and on Monday damaged structures that are part of or near communication and radar systems on at least seven U.S. military sites across the Middle East, according to a New York Times analysis of satellite imagery and verified videos. – New York Times
More than 870 people have been killed in the fighting in the Middle East since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, setting off an intensifying Iranian military response across the region. – New York Times
Mojtaba Khamanei, the son of Iran’s late Supreme Leader, has survived the assault on the country by U.S. and Israeli air strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several military and other influential figures, two Iranian sources told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters
Iranians will bid farewell to late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at a ceremony in Tehran late on Wednesday, a senior Iranian official told state media. – Reuters
Terrified residents of Iran’s capital described it as a ghost town on Tuesday, its streets largely emptied by a U.S.-Israeli missile barrage apart from security checkpoints and Revolutionary Guards patrols that rove the city. – Reuters
Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva on Tuesday ruled out any negotiations with the United States, three days after the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on his country. – Reuters
A British couple jailed in Iran have described explosions shaking Evin prison where they are being held and damage to their wing as the conflict intensifies around Tehran, their son told Reuters after speaking to them on Tuesday. – Reuters
President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that “someone from within” the Iranian regime might be the best choice to take power once the U.S.-Israel military campaign is completed — but said “most of the people we had in mind are dead.” – Associated Press
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday dismissed the exiled crown prince of Iran’s last shah as a potential successor to recently eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, arguing that “someone from within” Iran might be a better fit. – Times of Israel
The White House will offer naval escorts and political risk insurance for oil and gas tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said Tuesday, in a bid to cool energy prices that have surged since Iran warned it would attack ships at the choke point. – Politico
Editorial: But, as Milton Friedman taught, inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The classic historical example is in the 1970s after the U.S. quit the Bretton Woods monetary system and dropped its dollar peg to gold. The Federal Reserve then made the mistake of easing money, which super-charged inflation and oil prices. A weak dollar can also lead to speculative bubbles in oil and other commodities. The Fed still hasn’t hit its 2% inflation target, so it needn’t cut rates anyway. But even if higher oil prices persist for some time, the result won’t be sustained inflation unless the Fed blunders. Might the war’s critics be raising false inflation alarms to spook President Trump into wrapping up his Iran campaign prematurely? If so, he shouldn’t take the bait. – Wall Street Journal
Abbas Milani writes: But the economy is a clear source of constant threat to the regime, and the new secular women and men of Iran are unwilling to accept anything less than what they were initially promised before being deceived nearly half a century ago. The machinery of the regime may survive today. But the counterrevolution of yesteryear is begetting the revolution of tomorrow. – New York Times
Ross Douthat writes: But the dark path here — a half-collapsed Iran fighting a decentralized war against its neighbors, a suppurating crisis that will be blamed on Israel by the further right and left alike — seems bad enough to pin Trump down in George W. Bush territory for the remainder of his term. “We destroyed their nuclear program” will not be enough of a justification in his own coalition, let alone the country as a whole. No: Success now requires some version, however unique to the Iranian situation, of the Venezuelan endgame, in which a somewhat friendlier regime holds power and conducts negotiations and keeps the lid on chaos. – New York Times
Javier Blas writes: Insurance is an issue, but far from the biggest problem. True, insurers have issue notices of cancellations, but that’s just a customary legal procedure to enable underwriters to renegotiate contracts at much higher rates to reflect the material change in circumstances. If the insurance industry isn’t able to provide enough cover, the US government itself may need to backstop the war premium. The market reaction to the Iran war has been relatively muted so far, with Brent rising to about $84 a barrel from $71 before the strikes. But unless the Strait of Hormuz is swiftly reopened to traffic, oil-producing nations will need to start slowing their output — which will exacerbate the spike in crude prices. – Bloomberg
Suzanne Maloney writes: Any diplomatic engagement with the regime’s successors must be guided by a clear vision for advancing meaningful, lasting change within Iran. War has degraded the traditional threats posed by Iran—its nuclear ambitions, its ballistic missiles, and its proxies. Now, the United States has the opportunity to focus on what it has long neglected in its dealings with Tehran: the chance to help Iranians secure the future they deserve. – Foreign Affairs
Jon B. Alterman writes: Almost 60 years ago, the development economist Albert O. Hirschman wrote about the “hiding hand.” That is, individuals systematically underestimate the difficulty of what they hope to do while also underestimating the creativity that unexpected difficulties will demand. The U.S. and Israeli governments have vast power to destroy, but far less capacity to build—especially in foreign lands that they have just vanquished. They should understand that the hard work is just beginning. Killing the Iranian leadership is not the goal of this operation. Changing the political decisions of future Iranian leaders is. That is the challenge, and it will be harder than they expect. It will require more creativity—and effort—than they seem ready to deploy. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Russia and Ukraine
Russia’s state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, has halted construction work at new units of Iran’s nuclear power plant in the port city of Bushehr because of the U.S.-Israeli air assault on Iran, its chief Alexei Likhachev said on Tuesday. – Reuters
A Russian drone hit an empty passenger train in Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region early on Wednesday, injuring a railway worker, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba said. – Reuters
Russia’s transport ministry on Wednesday accused Ukrainian naval drones of attacking a Russian liquefied natural gas carrier, the Arctic Metagaz, which caught fire in the Mediterranean a day earlier. – Reuters
A court in Russia on Tuesday designated a prominent LGBTQ+ rights group as an extremist organization, the latest blow to the country’s beleaguered community that has faced an intensified crackdown in recent years under President Vladimir Putin. – Associated Press
Lawrence Freedman writes: Russia has failed at much since it began its full-scale invasion in Ukraine, but it has had some success in creating the narrative that its victory in Ukraine is but a matter of time. The first step toward a durable peace is to defeat that narrative: however hard Russia tries and however much pain it inflicts, it cannot subjugate Ukraine. – New York Times
Hezbollah
Hezbollah fired on central Israel on Tuesday, the terrorist group’s first long-range attack since the start of the Iran war, as IDF airstrikes hammered Hezbollah and Israel threatened Iranian officials in Lebanon. – Times of Israel
The Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday it had deployed troops deeper into southern Lebanon, beyond the five posts it currently holds, “as part of an enhanced forward defense posture” amid attacks by the Hezbollah terror group. – Times of Israel
Daniel Byman writes: Any U.S. successes against Iran, both in the military sphere and at the negotiating table, can also help undermine Hezbollah. Even if Washington cannot convince Tehran to abandon its proxies, it could wear Iran down so much that it can no longer afford to provide massive funding to them—undermining Iran’s status as a reliable patron. The United States and its allies should also capitalize on Tehran’s weakened position and support Hezbollah’s opponents at home. At the very least, such continued pressure will keep Hezbollah off balance. – Foreign Affairs
Lebanon
Syria’s defense ministry said it reinforced its border with Lebanon, and eight Syrian and Lebanese sources said this included rocket units and thousands of troops as conflict spread in the region including between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Reuters
An Israeli strike on a four-storey residential building has killed at least four people and wounded six others in the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbek with rescue teams working to pull families from beneath the rubble, state news agency NNA said on Wednesday. - Reuters
Lebanon was pulled deeper into the war in the Middle East on Tuesday as the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel for a second consecutive day and Israel sent troops into the south and carried out waves of airstrikes. – Reuters
At least 30,000 displaced people have sought protection in shelters in Lebanon since hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah escalated this week, the United Nations refugee agency said on Tuesday, while many more were expected to join them. – Reuters
Syria has reinforced its border with Lebanon with rocket units and thousands of troops, eight Syrian and Lebanese sources said on Tuesday, as conflict spread in the region, including between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF said Tuesday that it killed the acting commander of the Lebanon Corps of Iran’s Quds Force in an airstrike in Tehran earlier in the day. – Ynet
Saudi Arabia
A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station at the U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia on Monday, in what would amount to a symbolic victory for the Islamic republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East, according to two people familiar with the matter. – Washington Post
Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Aramco is attempting to reroute some of its crude exports to the Red Sea to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, where the risk of Iranian attacks has slowed shipping to a near halt, sources said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura, which houses its largest domestic refinery, was struck again on Wednesday by an unknown projectile, four sources said. – Reuters
Major oil storage sites in Saudi Arabia are filling rapidly as the key export route through the Strait of Hormuz effectively remains closed to shipping, according to geospatial analytics company Kayrros. – Bloomberg
Gulf States
A Kuwaiti jet fighter was the cause of the accidental shootdown of three American F-15s on Sunday, according to people familiar with initial reports of the incident. One Kuwaiti F/A-18 pilot launched three missiles against the U.S. aircraft, according to one of the people, a U.S. official. – Wall Street Journal
The Gulf’s costly gamble to build a post-oil future is now facing trial by combat. After years—and hundreds of billions of dollars—spent transforming the region into a nexus for artificial intelligence, tourism and logistics, those aspirations are now under fire as Iranian strikes pound the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and neighboring states. – Wall Street Journal
Authorities have put down a limited fire in the vicinity of the U.S. consulate in Dubai due to a drone strike and no injuries were reported, Dubai’s media office said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Crude oil supplies from Iraq and Kuwait could start shutting in within days if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, potentially cutting 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by day eight of the Middle East conflict, J.P. Morgan analysts said in a note. – Reuters
The impact of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on the aluminium sector deepened on Tuesday after Qatari smelter Qatalum began to shut down and shareholder Norsk Hydro issued a force majeure to customers. – Reuters
The US embassies in both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were shut on Tuesday after both were hit by Iranian strikes, as Tehran continues to exact revenge across the Gulf for the Israeli-US war. – Times of Israel
Middle East & North Africa
A Tunisian court on Tuesday jailed the country’s richest businessman, Marouan Mabrouk, for corruption while giving prison terms to a former prime minister and several other former cabinet members for their handling of the case. – Reuters
Turkey is engaging with all parties to find a way to end the war in Iran and return to negotiations, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said, adding that Ankara was also in talks with Oman on the matter as the Gulf nation works for the same goal. – Reuters
Iraq started shutting oil production at its biggest fields and is set to make even deeper reductions in the coming days, the clearest sign yet of stress on Middle East producer giants from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. – Bloomberg
Iraq has halted oil exports from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation. – Bloomberg
Qatari authorities said Wednesday they dismantled two networks linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), arresting 10 people accused of espionage and sabotage inside the Gulf state. – Jerusalem Post
Korean Peninsula
South Korea’s ruling and opposition parties agreed on Wednesday to pass a special bill on March 12 to enable major investments in the U.S. under a bilateral trade deal, moving to meet Washington’s expectations after recent pressure over delays. – Reuters
Panic swept through South Korea’s trading floors as concerns over the Middle East conflict sent the world’s hottest stock market to its biggest-ever selloff. – Bloomberg
Systems that may be relocated include air defense systems from US Forces Korea (USFK), such as Patriot missiles and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. In addition, surveillance and reconnaissance resources, such as MQ-9 Reaper drones, which have been stationed at Gunsan Air Base in South Korea since last year, might also be reassigned to support the operation. – Jerusalem Post
China
China is building new submarines with firepower that can strike more of the U.S. mainland from waters closer to its own shores. Beijing’s undersea advances, including the expected deployment of submarines equipped with longer-range and more accurate ballistic missiles, will allow it to assert its interests farther from its shores, senior U.S. naval commanders said in congressional testimony Monday. – Wall Street Journal
The détente between China and the United States was already fragile. Now it faces a new strain: the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, an American-backed strike that Beijing denounced as a blatant attempt at regime change. – New York Times
Two senior Chinese officials were absent on Wednesday from the ranks of China’s highest tier of power at the opening of the country’s two largest political events of the year, with top Communist Party cadres ensnared in a wave of purges. – Reuters
China is willing to work with the United States to promote communication on all levels, while upholding its “red lines” and principles, Lou Qinjian, a spokesperson for its parliament, said on Wednesday. – Reuters
South Asia
India is scouting for alternative sources for importing crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas to prepare itself if the conflict in the Middle East lasts for more than 10-15 days, a government source said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Afghan forces attacked Pakistani military positions along the border early on Tuesday, triggering intense clashes that left 67 Afghan troops and one Pakistani soldier dead, officials in Islamabad said as cross-border fighting between the two countries entered its fifth day. – Associated Press
Pakistan is in “no hurry” to end its military operation in Afghanistan, a senior security official said, vowing to continue fighting until it’s certain it’s destroyed militant groups targeting the country from across the border. – Bloomberg
Mihir Sharma writes: What it has done, however, is reunite Pakistan’s political class in support of the army, including the recalcitrant Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf. That party’s jailed leader, the former prime minister Imran Khan, is himself a Pashtun, and made his name in politics by grandstanding against NATO airstrikes on the Taliban. The PTI, which is in power in the Pashtun-majority province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, refused to back strikes on the Taliban last year; but has now been forced to join a broad national consensus in favor of this war. But it has also meant that the broader region is even more unstable. The theocrats in both Tehran and Kabul at least kept a lid on the Islamic State presence in the region, which poses a major threat to Central and South Asia. If these two centers of power are simultaneously fighting for their life, what comes after might be even worse. – Bloomberg
James Crabtree and Jayant Sinha writes: For India, CPTPP membership serves twin long-term objectives: it would help India escape the middle-income trap by creating more durable economic growth, and it would help India better compete with China, for instance by funding the modernization of the Indian military. The geopolitical conditions are ripe for such a gambit. But if India cannot seize this opportunity now, its economy will continue to struggle to develop, and New Delhi will find itself in an increasing position of weakness when facing Beijing. India should recognize that joining the CPTPP would be the true fulfillment of its policy of multialignment in an age of fissuring geopolitics. – Foreign Affairs
Asia
Myanmar’s military ruler collects titles. Senior General. Army Commander in Chief. Brave and Glorious Protector of Buddhism. Great Hero of the Union of Myanmar. Defender of Truth. Doctor of Public Administration. Acting President. Now Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing appears ready to add president to that list. – New York Times
Nepal is heading to a general election on Thursday, the first after youth-led protests last September demanding an end to corruption, more jobs and cleaner politics led to the deaths of 77 people and forced the government to resign. – Reuters
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos met South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Manila on Tuesday, where they discussed ways to deepen economic and security ties. – Reuters
The Sri Lankan military has rescued at least 30 people on board a sinking Iranian ship near Sri Lankan waters on Wednesday, the country’s foreign minister told parliament. – Reuters
Indonesia’s foreign minister said talks on President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace initiative have been put on hold as diplomatic attention shifts to the escalating Middle East conflict involving Iran, Israel and the US. – Bloomberg
A Philippine congressional panel on Wednesday moved to advance two impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte, in a blow to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s political opponent. – Bloomberg
Europe
Europe spent years trying to shore up its energy defenses but war in the Middle East threatens to plunge it into another crippling gas crisis. European natural-gas prices have surged roughly 70% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. The widening conflict has halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for energy markets that is a thoroughfare for one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas. – Wall Street Journal
A day before he flew to Washington to see President Trump, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany explained to reporters why he did not plan to raise objections with the president over America’s nascent war with Iran. – New York Times
President Donald Trump castigated one of the United States’ closest allies on Tuesday, comparing Prime Minister Keir Starmer unfavorably to Winston Churchill over Britain’s limited support for U.S. strikes on Iran. – Reuters
Britain said on Tuesday it would block study visas for nationals from four countries and halt work visas for Afghans, using what it called an “emergency brake” to curb rising asylum claims from people entering through legal routes. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a full U.S. trade embargo on Spain on Tuesday after the European and NATO ally refused to let the U.S. military use its bases for missions linked to strikes on Iran. – Reuters
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Tuesday that Britain was sending helicopters with counter-drone capabilities to Cyprus, and was deploying the air defence destroyer naval vessel HMS Dragon to the region. – Reuters
Recruitment is the biggest problem facing Germany’s armed forces and Berlin will have to reinstate conscription if a voluntary scheme fails to attract sufficient people, the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces said on Tuesday. – Reuters
French President Emmanuel Macron said he’ll send an aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean to help secure maritime routes and ensure Europe’s economic interests in the region. – Bloomberg
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the Middle East are quickly dragging Europe in, forcing the continent into defensive action to protect military bases and evacuate citizens caught up in the conflict. – Associated Press
Greek court to sentence over 40 neo-Nazi party members for crimes during economic crisis – Associated Press
Greece has dispatched two frigates and four F-16 fighter jets to Cyprus following a drone strike on RAF Akrotiri, the British military’s main hub for Middle East aerial operations, as the Iran conflict threatens to spill into the Eastern Mediterranean. – Defense News
Africa
Sudan has accused Ethiopia of allowing drones to be launched from its territory into Sudan to carry out attacks in February and March, the first time it has directly accused its powerful neighbour of involvement in the three-year civil war. – Reuters
South Africa is willing to play a mediating role in the Middle East conflict if asked, President Cyril Ramaphosa told local media on the sidelines of an energy conference in Cape Town. – Reuters
More than two dozen Doctors Without Borders workers remain unaccounted for a month after attacks in South Sudan, the medical charity said. – Associated Press
Nigeria brought the timetable for next year’s election forward and announced new rules that appeared to catch the opposition off guard. Presidential and National Assembly elections will be held on Jan. 16, roughly a month earlier than was previously scheduled, the Independent National Electoral Commission said. State elections will follow three weeks later. – Bloomberg
Zimbabwe banned the export of raw lithium concentrates after widespread under-declaration by miners, a Cabinet minister said. Polite Kambamura, Zimbabwe’s mines minister, told reporters at a post-Cabinet briefing in the capital that although the ban was scheduled to take effect next year, the government was forced to act sooner as producers ramped up output and sought additional export permits. – Bloomberg
Saikou Jammeh, Ruth Maclean, Dickson Adama, and Ismail Auwal write: “Impunity is baked into the political system in Nigeria,” said James Barnett, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute specializing in African security and politics. Nnamdi Obasi, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, pointed to “a lack of political will, the lack of urgency about bringing these issues to an end.” No senior commanders in Nigeria have been held accountable for the attacks in Woro or Yelwata. – New York Times
The Americas
The U.S. military said Tuesday that it launched a joint operation with Ecuador against drug gangs as the Trump administration expands its campaign against drug traffickers in Latin America. – Wall Street Journal
Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) aims to send a technical team to Venezuela in a few weeks after working through logistical and security arrangements, an executive said on Tuesday. – Reuters
The Trump administration is quietly building a legal case against Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodriguez including readying a draft criminal indictment, one of several tools it is using to strengthen its leverage with Caracas, according to four people familiar with the matter. – Reuters
Trinidad and Tobago declared a new state of emergency Tuesday, only about a month after the end of the previous one, as authorities in the Caribbean nation continue to grapple with high levels of violent crime. – Associated Press
North America
Canada has signed a string of agreements with India aimed at deepening ties in areas like critical minerals and energy as it seeks more alliances amid tensions with the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
A Toronto synagogue was damaged by gunfire on Monday night, the beginning of the Jewish holiday Purim, the police said. – New York Times
Cuban prosecutors formally charged six people with “crimes of terrorism” and ordered them held in pretrial detention on Tuesday in connection with an incident last week in which Cuban forces killed four Cuban nationals and wounded six others aboard a speedboat that entered Cuban waters. – Reuters
United States
The shooter accused of killing three people and injuring 13 others early Sunday outside a bar in Austin, Texas, had “Property of Allah” and what appeared to be an Iranian flag on his clothing, according to law enforcement. Suspect Ndiaga Diagne, 53 years old, wasn’t previously known to the Federal Bureau of Investigation or Austin police, authorities said. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. Department of State is taking historic action to assist American citizens, who wish to depart the Middle East, return to the United States. In the past several days, over 9,000 American citizens have safely returned from the Middle East, including over 300 from Israel. – State Department
Editorial: Yet U.S. crude oil production has been on an upward trajectory since Barack Obama’s first term and broke records under Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The U.S. participates more fully in global oil markets than ever before, and that’s why there won’t be gas lines. – Washington Post
Marc A Thiessen writes: This much is certain: Donald Trump is making history. There have been just 45 presidents since the founding of our republic. Of those, only a handful truly transformed the world. In the modern era, Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated Nazi fascism and Ronald Reagan defeated Soviet communism. If he succeeds in defeating Islamic radicalism in Iran, Trump will take his place alongside them as one the most consequential presidents in U.S. history. – Washington Post
Cybersecurity
OpenAI is considering a contract to deploy its AI technology on North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) “unclassified” networks, a person familiar with the matter said on Tuesday, days after the ChatGPT-owner struck a deal with the Pentagon. – Reuters
OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman told employees that the company doesn’t get to make the call about what the Defense Department does with its artificial intelligence software and suggested the desire to do so may have been part of tensions between the Pentagon and rival Anthropic PBC. – Bloomberg
Artificial intelligence could cost the UK jobs without delivering any growth in return, according to an analysis conducted by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The UK’s fiscal watchdog modeled a “technological displacement” world in which new technology replaces workers, alongside its economic forecasts published Tuesday. – Bloomberg
An exploit kit that may have originated from a leaked U.S. government framework is behind what researchers are calling the first mass-scale attack on iOS, the operating system for Apple’s iPhones. – Cyberscoop
Parmy Olson writes: With such new and untested systems prone to making mistakes, this is sorely needed. “We haven’t decided as a society if we’re fine with a machine deciding if a human being should be killed or not,” says Taddeo. Pushing for that transparency is critical before AI in warfare becomes so routine that nobody thinks to ask anymore. Otherwise we may find ourselves waiting for a catastrophic mistake, and imposing transparency only after the damage is done. – Bloomberg
Defense
The U.S. troops were working at a tactical-operations center at a commercial port in Kuwait on Sunday when they were struck by a deadly Iranian drone. The strike killed six American servicemembers, including a college student from Iowa; a Minnesota mother just weeks from going home; a Nebraska mechanic who had already done two tours in Kuwait; and a deeply patriotic Florida captain who felt called to serve from the time he was young. – Wall Street Journal
The Trump administration plans to meet with executives from the biggest U.S. defense contractors at the White House on Friday to discuss accelerating weapons production, as the Pentagon works to replenish supplies after strikes on Iran and several other recent military efforts, five people familiar with the plan told Reuters. – Reuters
Editorial: But it doesn’t matter how many missiles are in the cabinet if our enemies conclude America won’t accept risk to defend itself. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is right to suggest that the U.S. can’t let Iran build 100 missiles a month while we build six interceptors. The sleeper risk to U.S. weapons supplies is retreating from the fight before Iran’s capacity to menace the world is eliminated. – Wall Street Journal
Emma Salisbury writes: The ultimate measure of the Fighting Instructions’ success will not be the eloquence of the strategy document but the U.S. Navy’s performance when theory meets the unforgiving test of operational reality. This will happen not in documents but in shipyards, classrooms, crews, and — should deterrence fail — in combat. The Fighting Instructions provide a framework and a direction, but documents do not build ships, train sailors, or win battles, nor do they ensure that their concepts make the transition from page to reality. The hard work of implementation lies ahead, requiring sustained leadership, institutional courage, and the ability to adapt as initial assumptions encounter reality’s complications. – War on the Rocks