Fdd's overnight brief

March 4, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News


Hamas officials are in Cairo for negotiations on a potential deal that would see the release of hostages in exchange for a temporary cease-fire in Gaza, according to Egyptian officials, in a push to stop the fighting before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. – Wall Street Journal

Vice President Kamala Harris continued to press on Sunday for an “immediate cease-fire for at least the next six weeks” in Gaza, calling on Hamas to accept a potential deal to release Israeli hostages in exchange for the temporary truce. – Wall Street Journal

An international push to disrupt Hamas financing has hit a roadblock over an effort to determine which charities are helping the militant group and which are legitimate nonprofits raising funds to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, according to Western officials. – Wall Street Journal

A plurality of American voters think Israel has gone too far in responding to the October attacks by Hamas, and a growing share believes the U.S. isn’t doing enough to help the Palestinian people, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. began its first airdrops of humanitarian aid to Gaza after a failed aid mission overseen by Israel two days earlier turned deadly, while negotiators in Cairo raced to rescue a plan to pause fighting in the strip before the Ramadan holiday begins around March 10. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. and other countries called for investigations into how scores of Gazans were killed near an aid convoy, as the Israeli military gave an initial estimate that it killed fewer than 10 people when its troops shot at a crowd of Palestinians nearby. – Wall Street Journal

The Hamas-led attack on Israel last October has prompted flashes of greater solidarity between sections of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jewish minority and the secular mainstream, as fears of a shared threat have accelerated the integration of some of Israel’s most insular citizens. – New York Times

An unpublished investigation by the main United Nations agency for Palestinian affairs accuses Israel of abusing hundreds of Gazans captured during the war with Hamas, according to a copy of the report reviewed by The New York Times. – New York Times

An Israeli strike outside a hospital in Rafah, in southern Gaza, on Saturday killed at least 11 people and injured dozens of other displaced Palestinians, including children, who were sheltering in tents nearby, the Gaza Health Ministry said. – New York Times

 At least 15 children have died over the past few days from malnutrition and dehydration at Gaza’s Kamal Adwan hospital, the health ministry in Gaza said in a statement. – Reuters

Israeli forces swept into the Palestinians’ administrative capital of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank overnight, killing a 16-year-old in a refugee camp during their biggest raid into the city in years, Palestinian sources said on Monday. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rebuked a top Cabinet minister arriving in Washington on Sunday for talks with U.S. officials, according to an Israeli official, signaling widening cracks within the country’s leadership nearly five months into its war with Hamas. – Associated Press

The European Union said Friday that it will pay 50 million euros ($54 million) to the main provider of aid in Gaza next week after the cash-strapped U.N. agency agreed to allow EU-appointed experts to audit the way it screens staff to identify extremists. – Associated Press

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will visit Turkey on Tuesday for talks about the Gaza war and reconciliation efforts between Palestinian factions, the Turkish foreign minister said on Sunday. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial:  As a practical matter, it will stop the international community from being able to provide this aid.” In short, Hamas would be to blame and the aid would have to stop. Now, fearing his party’s left flank, Mr. Biden blames Israel and says aid must increase, no matter how much Hamas steals. Gazans need aid, and they also need the world to stop playing Hamas’s game. – Wall Street Journal

Daniel Pipes writes: Under such conditions, Gaza could become decent and economically viable. As others such as Singapore and Dubai have shown, democracy isn’t necessary for such a project to succeed. If the Israelis have the acumen and stamina to make this happen, they will have retrieved something positive out of tragedy. – Wall Street Journal

David Ignatius writes: Watching the drone footage of the scramble for food, it’s hard not to conclude that Israel and Hamas have unintentionally combined to create an interim status of mob rule for Gaza. Israel now finds on its border a version of Mogadishu in Somalia. When this war began on Oct. 7, Israelis rightly felt they were the victims. The United States and its allies should now help Israelis — force them, if necessary — to become the rescuers. – Washington Post

Ross Douthat writes: War can be more or less hellish, but there is an unrefinable aspect to any attempt to dismantle a dug-in terrorist regime governing densely populated cities. In that sense, much of Israel’s war — the strategy, if not always the specific tactics — is what a justifiable campaign against such an enemy inevitably looks like. But its friends should recognize that without a path to victory and peace, a war can be justifiable and still end up not being just. – New York Times

Nicholas Kristof writes: So it’s fair to talk about double standards. They are real. They run in many directions, shielding Israel as well as condemning it. And in a world where we are all connected by our shared humanity, I believe we should never let our very human tangles of double standards and hypocrisies be harnessed to deflect from the tragedy unfolding today for the children of Gaza, or America’s complicity in it. – New York Times

Marc Champion writes: Media access may not seem important in a week when the Palestinian fatalities claimed by Gaza’s Hamas-run health authority have just passed 30,000, with an estimated two-thirds of those civilians. But more credible and reliable accounts of facts on the ground are vital, and would by no means always be to Israel’s detriment. – Bloomberg


Iran unsuccessfully pressed Sudan to let it build a permanent naval base on the African country’s Red Sea coast, something that would have allowed Tehran to monitor maritime traffic to and from the Suez Canal and Israel, according to a senior Sudanese intelligence official. – Wall Street Journal

A member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy serving as a military adviser in Syria was killed in a suspected Israeli strike on Friday, Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported. – Reuters

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi on Sunday discussed bilateral relations, energy cooperation, trade and Gaza with Algeria’s leader Abdelmadjid Tebboune in a one-day state visit, according to Algeria’s presidency. – Reuters

Turnout for Iran’s parliamentary election, seen as a test of the clerical establishment’s legitimacy, appears to have hit an historic low of around 41%, according to unofficial reports quoted by state media on Saturday. – Reuters

Iran’s gas output will reach 1.3 billion cubic metres (bcm) per day in five years, Iran’s Oil Minister Javad Owji said on Sunday according to the semi-official Student News Network, up from 1.07 billion cubic metres per day currently. – Reuters

Iran’s judiciary has executed a “terrorist” over a drone attack that targeted a defense ministry site in central Iran last year, state media reported on Sunday. According to state TV, the person “planned to explode the workshop complex of the Ministry of Defense in Isfahan under guidance of the intelligence officer of Mossad,” Israel’s spy agency. – Agence France-Presse

Shervin Hajipour, the Iranian singer whose song Baraye (“For”) became an anthem of the “Women, Life, Liberty” protests in 2022, was sentenced on Friday to three years and eight months in prison and ordered to write a song against the US. – Jerusalem Post


Russia & Ukraine

As Russian troops closed in on the eastern Ukrainian city of Soledar, police detective Maksym Mashkin was called in to investigate two corpses found in one of the bomb-ravaged city’s basement shelters. – Wall Street Journal

Two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, residents of Kharkiv are no longer waiting for the war to be over. In the subway, classes don’t stop when missiles are fired on the city. Concrete bus stops double up as bomb shelters, and new restaurants have opened up even as Russia intensifies strikes against the city. – Wall Street Journal

Even as he promises international partners that Ukraine will handle the fighting if given needed weapons and other support, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top military commanders have failed so far to come up with a clear plan to conscript or recruit many thousands of new soldiers critically needed to defend against Russia’s continuing attacks. – Washington Post

When Aleksei A. Navalny was alive, the Kremlin sought to portray him as an inconsequential figure unworthy of attention, even as the Russian authorities vilified and attacked him with a viciousness that suggested the opposite. In death, little appears to have changed. – New York Times

Rescue workers in the southern Ukrainian city of Odesa pulled the bodies of a mother and baby from the rubble of an apartment building on Sunday, as the death toll in a Russian attack two days earlier rose to 12. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said delays by allies in supplying air defenses had contributed to the deaths. – New York Times

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin and China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, said it was impossible to discuss a Ukraine settlement without Moscow’s participation, the Russian foreign ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

Russia’s foreign ministry summoned the German ambassador on Monday, the TASS news agency reported, citing an unidentified source, after Russian media published an audio recording of a meeting of senior German military officials. – Reuters

Russian air defence systems destroyed all 38 drones that Ukraine launched at the Crimean Peninsula early on Sunday, Russia’s defence ministry said, after reports on Ukrainian and Russian social media of powerful explosions in the port of Feodosia. – Reuters

Editorial: This has shielded Moldova from the imminent threat of a Russian military intervention. But Ms. Sandu said last year that Chișinău had thwarted an attempt to overthrow her democratic government. Moldova’s next presidential election is this autumn, and Mr. Putin as usual is stoking trouble in Russian-speaking areas of the country. If Ukraine falls, Moldova could be the Kremlin’s next target. – Wall Street Journal

William Courtney writes: Living standards may soon bear much of the war’s cost and could demoralize Russians. These factors likely abetted the collapse of the USSR. The West cannot count on more unforced errors by Russia. But President Vladimir Putin and his ex-KGB cohort seem more likely to double down on their Ukraine blunder than to make amends. – The Hill 

Michael Kimmage and Hanna Notte write: Most urgent is continued support for Ukraine. If Moscow wins the war, its efforts to remake international order will accelerate. A Russia in control of Ukraine would feel more self-confident, and it would suffer from fewer resource constraints. Its appeal as a partner to non-Western states would grow, while Western credibility in Europe and elsewhere would be in ruins. Russia’s global game runs through Ukraine. That is where it must be stopped. – War on the Rocks


An Israeli drone strike hit a car in south Lebanon Saturday morning, killing three Hezbollah members, state media and officials said. Another four Hezbollah members were killed in a strike on a house in the town of Ramia overnight, said a Lebanese security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to journalists. – Associated Press

The grandson of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Abbas Ahmed Halil, was one of the three Hezbollah terrorists killed on Saturday by an IDF strike in Neqoura in south Lebanon, according to a report by the Syrian radio channel Voice of the Capital on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

The targeted killing of three Lebanese Hezbollah members by Israel this week constitutes a significant escalation in the limited war now underway between Israel and the Lebanese Shi’ite Islamist movement. – Jerusalem Post


Arabian Peninsula

Russia’s Pacific Fleet frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov entered the Qatari port of Hamad where it will take part in the DIMDEX-2024 defence exhibition, Interfax news agency reported on Monday, citing the press service of fleet. – Reuters

Negotiators taking part in a World Trade Organization meeting in the United Arab Emirates ended their summit early Saturday after failing to reach agreements on several major initiatives, the latest sign of turmoil within the global body. – Associated Press

Noa Lazimi writes: It is not unthinkable that Egypt could play a more central role in the mediation efforts, alongside assistance from European countries that have served as mediators in the past, such as Germany. The time has come to replace Western tolerance towards Doha with a more hardline stance. Only then will it be possible to put an end to Qatar’s dangerous double game. – Jerusalem Post


A British-owned ship struck last month by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi forces has sunk into the Red Sea, U.K. and Yemen officials said Saturday, threatening to cause an environmental disaster with its cargo of fertilizer. – Wall Street Journal

Grain ships originating from the Black Sea or bound for Iran are about the only ones still sailing through the Red Sea as Houthi militants continue to attack vessels in the area, analysts said on Friday. – Reuters

Neville Teller writes: Yet despite the negative consequences, the Soufan Center believes that the perceived threat the Houthis now pose to US and Western vital interests virtually guarantees that calls for an alternative to the current approach will continue to gather strength. There is a chink of hope. When the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza comes to an end, as it must eventually do, the Houthis might seize the opportunity to withdraw from holding the world to ransom. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Conflict in the Middle East is drawing fresh attention to one of the internet’s deepest vulnerabilities: the Red Sea. Most internet traffic between Europe and East Asia runs through undersea cables that funnel into the narrow strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. – Wall Street Journal

An Italian navy ship shot down a drone flying towards it in the Red Sea on Saturday, the defence ministry said. A ministry statement described the action as self-defence by the Duilio, which is helping protect trade routes from drone and missile attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militia. – Reuters

Albert Torres writes: Taking these measures will put the Taliban on the defensive and challenge their ability to continue looting the country. Failing to address the severity of the situation in Afghanistan would be a critical misstep. U.S. leadership is incumbent. However, we must act with others. It’s vital that the international community remain in lockstep to promise a better future for the people of Afghanistan. – The Hill

Korean Peninsula

Samsung phones. Hyundai cars. LG TVs. South Korean exports are available in virtually every corner of the world. But the nation is more dependent than ever before on an import to keep its factories and farms humming: foreign labor. – New York Times

South Korean and U.S. militaries kicked off their spring drills on Monday with twice the number of troops joining compared to last year, officials said, as the allies seek to better counter North Korea’s increasing nuclear and missile threats. – Reuters

North Korea’s hacking groups have broken into at least two South Korean manufacturers of chipmaking equipment, as the country looks to evade sanctions and turn out its own semiconductors for weapons programmes, South Korea’s spy agency said on Monday. – Reuters

South Korea’s government will take steps to suspend the medical licenses of some 7,000 trainee doctors who have walked off the job and ignored a back-to-work order, a vice health minister said on Monday. – Reuters


China’s vaunted internet censors are capable of sifting an ocean of information and eradicating sensitive content within seconds. One young woman managed to hoodwink them for weeks. – Wall Street Journal

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the U.S. and the global economy experienced a “China shock,” a boom in imports of cheap Chinese-made goods that helped keep inflation low but at the cost of local manufacturing jobs. A sequel might be in the making as Beijing doubles down on exports to revive the country’s growth. – Wall Street Journal

China is facing a tricky year ahead, with economic growth slowing, the population — and more importantly, the workforce — shrinking, markets in turmoil and tensions with the United States remaining high. The American presidential campaign will probably see an increase in anti-Beijing sentiment. – Washington Post

A measure in the U.S. funding legislation unveiled by congressional leaders on Sunday would block China from buying oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. – Reuters

China’s Premier Li Qiang will not hold a press conference after the close of this year’s annual parliamentary meeting, an official said on Monday, ending a tradition maintained for three decades. – Reuters

China opposes any attempt to denigrate or attack its business environment by misreading the country’s counter-espionage law, National People’s Congress (NPC) spokesman Lou Qinjian told reporters at a press conference on Monday. – Reuters

South Asia

Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif pledged to focus on the country’s debt-laden economy after he was confirmed as prime minister on Sunday, amid noisy protests by opposition lawmakers following an election marred by allegations of rigging. – Wall Street Journal

Australia said on Monday Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asian countries are facing serious defence threats as it set aside more funds for maritime security projects with ASEAN countries during a summit with regional leaders in Melbourne. – Reuters

India plans to commission a new naval base in the Lakshadweep islands, off the country’s south-west coast, to boost security in the region, the Ministry of Defense said on Saturday. The Indian Navy will announce on March 6 plans to build INS Jatayu on Minicoy island. – Reuters


The White House on Friday said the U.S. government was taking seriously an internal watchdog report that the U.S. ambassador to Singapore threatened his staff and failed to submit about $48,000 in travel expenses on time or with proper documentation. – Reuters

The Philippines on Monday deployed a coastguard vessel to carry out a two-week patrol mission in waters north and east of the country to intensify its maritime presence and check on Chinese research vessels that were spotted in Benham Rise. – Reuters

Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal was in talks with two opposition parties to form a new coalition on Monday, citing difficulties with his present ally, the centrist Nepali Congress party, one of his aides said. – Reuters

The Royal Thai Air Force has laid out its future aspirations in a document released Feb. 29, with counter-drone systems, new fighter jets and medium-range air defense systems among the most pressing concerns. – Defense News


Germany’s air force commander gathered his top officers for a secret meeting last month to discuss the possible delivery of his country’s most powerful guided missiles to Ukraine. The long-range weapons could be used to destroy the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to the occupied Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, the German officers said. – Wall Street Journal

Donald Trump’s recent comments that he would encourage Moscow to attack NATO members that “don’t pay” has sent shock waves through Europe, leaving leaders fearing they could be stuck alone to defend against a Russian assault. – Wall Street Journal

Greece, host of the headquarters of the EU operation to shield ships from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, hopes to play a more central role in ensuring security of the 27-nation bloc, the defence minister said. – Reuters

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte signed a security deal with Ukraine in the northeastern city of Kharkiv on Friday and said the Netherlands would help fund the supply of 800,000 artillery shells to hold back Russian forces. – Reuters

NATO will kick off an exercise on Monday to defend its newly expanded Nordic territory when more than 20,000 soldiers from 13 nations take part in drills lasting nearly two weeks in the northern regions of Finland, Norway and Sweden. – Associated Press

Marine Le Pen kicked off her campaign for the European parliament elections attacking President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to reform the labor market, saying the French people would pay the price. – Bloomberg

Patria will build a site in Finland for the assembly of F-35 Block 4 fighter jets, now that the government’s Ministerial Finance Committee has approved the Defence Ministry’s land and facilities lease proposal. – Defense News

The Netherlands plans to order four new air-defense frigates for more than €3.5 billion (U.S. $3.8 billion) to replace its current fleet, Dutch State Secretary of Defense Christophe van der Maat said in a letter to parliament Friday. – Defense News

Dominic Green writes: British democracy and society are at a crunch point. Multiculturalism, political correctness and a deliberate failure to enforce immigration law have fostered a domestic-terrorist problem of unprecedented scale and complexity. The vast majority of the British people are repelled by extremism, appalled at the demolition of their values, and outraged by the cowardice of their rulers. Last month the red-green alliance crossed the Rubicon and bullied Parliament into submission. This is how a democracy dies. – Wall Street Journal


Chad’s interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby said on Saturday he plans to run in this year’s long-awaited presidential race. Deby’s confirmation came at the end of a chaotic week in which opposition politician Yaya Dillo was shot and killed in the capital N’Djamena, prompting the European Union to express its deep concern. – Reuters

Around 170 people were “executed” in attacks on three villages in northern Burkina Faso a week ago, a regional prosecutor said in a statement seen on Sunday. – Reuters

A Zimbabwean opposition activist slain nearly two years ago was finally buried Saturday at an event marked by a low turnout and clashes between members of the main opposition party, highlighting its decline. – Associated Press


The Americas

Argentine President Javier Milei vowed to “speed up” his plans to overhaul the country and solve its economic woes in a fiery speech to Congress on Friday, challenging them to pass a new package of bills after an earlier version of his “omnibus” reform was rebuffed last month. – Reuters

Chile wants to have three or four new lithium projects operational by 2026, the country’s Minister of Finance Mario Marcel said on Saturday. – Reuters

Editorial: America is trying to muscle in on the lithium market, which Communist China has long dominated. Meanwhile, Mr. Milei doesn’t lack for a political antenna. Even as he hopes for America to catch up, he has softened his verbal condemnation of Mr. Xi’s China. Yet the much-maligned Argentine is America’s best hope for repairing alliances that once underlined the Monroe doctrine. Mr. Milei’s liberty-cheering at times seems to eclipse ours. – New York Sun

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: If El Salvador’s president is exceedingly popular, as he claims, he could use his political capital to build independent institutions supporting pluralism, the market economy and civil liberties. Instead he is engaged in an authoritarian crackdown designed to annihilate his political opposition and secure absolute power. It won’t end well. – Wall Street Journal

Judy Shelton writes: . “All central banks are a scam,” he stated in an interview last September, calling the Federal Reserve “the lesser evil” in comparison with his own nation’s central bank. Mr. Milei has much to teach America — and other market democracies. The imperative of putting our own fiscal house in order has never been clearer. We need to make the American dollar worthy of being the most trusted currency in the world. And remember that miracles do happen. – New York Sun

North America

Canada on Friday said it would toughen foreign-investment rules as they apply to the domestic video-game industry, with a focus on potential national-security risks posed by state-sponsored actors. – Wall Street Journal

Gangs attacked two prisons in Haiti, including the country’s largest penitentiary, and allowed prisoners to escape on Saturday night, according to Haitian officials, the latest instance of escalating violence and disorder in the country’s capital, which has been ravaged by gang violence for more than two years. – New York Times

Haiti’s government declared a state of emergency on Sunday evening, following violent clashes in the capital that have damaged communications and led to two prison breaks as a major gang leader seeks to oust Prime Minister Ariel Henry. – Reuters

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Saturday canceled a joint visit to the Art Gallery of Ontario in Toronto for security reasons, according to a Canadian spokesperson. – Reuters

Canada announced a fresh round of sanctions against Russia on Sunday over the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. The latest sanctions will target six Russian officials, including senior officials and high-ranking employees of Russia’s prosecution, judicial and correctional services, Canada’s Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said in a statement. – Reuters

United States

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will meet former U.S. President Donald Trump on March 8 in Florida, Orban’s press chief told Hungarian state news agency MTI late on Sunday. Last month nationalist Orban endorsed Trump’s bid to return to the U.S. presidency this year. – Reuters

Presidential contender Nikki Haley won the Washington, D.C., Republican primary on Sunday, her first victory in the nominating process and a symbolic win for the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Edison Research said. – Reuters

Republican frontrunner Donald Trump accused President Joe Biden on Saturday of engaging in a “conspiracy to overthrow the United States” through lax security policies that have allowed millions of migrants to stream across the U.S. border with Mexico. – Reuters

Editorial: To be sure, the WTO needs reform. It requires a better system to resolve trade disputes, not only to address U.S. concerns but also to make it simpler for smaller countries to use. It needs a more nimble setup, for groups of countries to make progress on areas of common interest, free of the burden of universal consensus. It must address China’s repeated use of nonmarket tactics to tip the playing field in its favor and conquer foreign markets. – Washington Post

Andreas Kluth writes: All these conflicts — in Ukraine, the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait and even the Middle East, where Israel has nukes and Iran could soon get them — involve nuclear powers, making the stakes potentially existential. As it’s been said, such wars “cannot be won and must never be fought.” But the US would be wrong to conclude that it should therefore deter itself rather than its enemies. The best way to ensure a world that’s worth living in is for the US to make clear to its adversaries that it would, if it came to it, go to war — even over reefs, shoals and rocks. – Bloomberg



India has asked tech firms to seek its approval before the public release of artificial intelligence (AI) tools that are “unreliable” or under trial, noting they should also be labelled for the potential to return wrong answers for user queries. – Reuters

Israel is deploying new and sophisticated artificial intelligence technologies at a large scale in its offensive in Gaza. And as the civilian death toll mounts, regional human rights groups are asking if Israel’s AI targeting systems have enough guardrails. – Politico

Ryan Polk writes: Protecting children online is an important and laudable goal. Calling on Congress to force tech companies to undermine end-to-end encryption is not. Encryption is the lock that keeps out those who seek to do us harm. It protects our citizens, our national security, our economy and our children. Congress must not hand the keys to our enemies. – The Hill


The Pentagon will lift the ban on flights by the grounded V-22 Osprey next week, U.S. officials told The Associated Press on Friday, following a high-level meeting where Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin endorsed the military services’ plans for a safe and measured return to operations. – Defense News

James Stavridis writes: Eventually, in both the Black and Red Seas, the US and its allies may have to go directly after the forces of the sponsoring nations: Russia and Iran. We are not there yet, and for now should limit to working through our Ukrainian proxies against Russia while striking the Iranian proxy, the Houthis. Eventually, both maritime conflicts will subside, and we can return to the free flow of commerce on these important waterways. But in the meantime, the US Navy is learning all it can to improve its performance in 21st-century war at sea. – Bloomberg

Henrik Larsen writes: Reinforced, resilient military mobility is key to NATO defense. The EU should work with the alliances to forge tech regulations that protect and promote their defense capability. Smart regulation of defense-related tech could bring substance to the EU’s and NATO’s often-declared wishes to strengthen their partnership and give substance to the EU’s oft-repeated ambition to play a strong role in defending Europe. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Timothy R. Heath writes: The need to ensure domestic security and reduce popular discontent while waging conflict with the involvement of only a tiny minority of the population suggests a new mental framework will be required for the United States to manage the challenges posed by rival states. It is not too early to begin planning and thinking about how to ensure U.S. security in an era of fragile public support. – The National Interest

Dan Grazier writes: The fight to save the A-10 has never been about the airplane. It has always been about saving the capability and the institutional knowledge of the attack pilot community. The A-10 fleet is an aging platform. It should have been replaced with an updated version that features many of the A-10s basic design elements. Other than the lack of will, there is no reason the Air Force couldn’t procure a 21st century Warthog-like aircraft capable of rapid sortie generation, protection from ground fire, long loiter time, and plenty of firepower. Future American warfighters deserve nothing less. – The National Interest

Long War

Six alleged members of the Islamic State group were killed in a shootout in Russia’s volatile North Caucasus region, in what the country’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAC) described Sunday as a “counterterrorism operation.” – Associated Press

A military court in Somalia’s northeastern semiautonomous state of Puntland sentenced to death six Moroccans believed to be foreign fighters for the Islamic State extremist group in Somalia. – Associated Press

Belgian police on Sunday arrested an adult and three minors over messages they exchanged allegedly plotting a jihadist attack, local media reported. The four were arrested as police conducted searches at addresses in the cities of Brussels, Ninove, Charleroi, and Liege, outlets RTBF and HLN reported. No weapons or explosives were found. – Agence France-Presse

Aaron Y. Zelin writes: To be sure, more strategically important matters like the Ukraine war, the Hamas-Israel war, and China will continue to hold much of Washington’s attention. Yet allowing IS to stack up wins and build new governance projects could give the group more space to plan another game-changing atrocity that puts it back atop the West’s policy agenda. – Washington Institute