Fdd's overnight brief

March 30, 2026

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Israel has begun rationing its use of high-end missile interceptors, hoping to preserve stocks of its most capable defensive weapons in the face of daily Iranian barrages that haven’t let up through four weeks of war. A pair of Iranian ballistic missiles recently scored direct hits on the towns of Dimona and Arad after Israel tried and failed to intercept them with modified versions of less advanced munitions. – Wall Street Journal

Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen launched an attack against Israel on Saturday for the first time since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran a month ago, an intervention that amounted to a widening of the conflict and that brings the potential for further disruption of global trade and markets. – Washington Post

The Israeli military said on Monday that Iran launched multiple waves of missiles at ​Israel, and an attack had also been launched from Yemen for only the second time since the U.S.-Israeli war began. – Reuters

Israel blocked Jerusalem’s Catholic cardinal from marking ​Palm Sunday at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, sparking an international outcry that led Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reverse the ban for ‌the remainder of Holy Week. – Reuters

The Israeli military said on Sunday it had found no negligence or ethical ​failures by officers involved in the killing ‌of Israeli farmer Ofer Moskovitz near the Lebanese frontier earlier this month. – Reuters

Israel’s parliament approved the 2026 state budget, a ​Knesset spokesperson said in a statement early on ‌Monday, allowing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to head off early elections as his country’s joint war with the ​U.S. on Iran continues. – Reuters

The Israeli military killed three Palestinian men in Gaza on Saturday in two separate air strikes, local health officials and ​medics said, the latest round of deadly violence despite a ‌U.S.-brokered ceasefire that is now more than five months old. – Reuters

Hamas would be required to allow the destruction of its vast Gaza tunnel network as it lays down its arms in stages over eight months under a disarmament ​plan presented to the militants by U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace”. – Reuters

Israeli police prevented Catholic leaders from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre to celebrate a private Mass on the Christian holiday of Palm Sunday for the first time in centuries, setting off a wave of criticism from the United States and others. – Associated Press 

The Israeli military’s top general suspended all operational activities of a reserve battalion involved in the detention and assault of a CNN team in the West Bank last week, the Israeli military said Monday. – CNN

A “fragment” from a ballistic missile launched from Iran struck a chemical plant in Israel’s south on Sunday, the IDF said, causing no injuries but sparking a blaze and prompting concerns of a hazardous chemicals leak. – Times of Israel

Former British prime minister Tony Blair rejected claims that Israel’s war in Gaza amounted to genocide and argued that Western leaders were failing to confront the political climate behind rising antisemitism, in an op-ed published Thursday by The Free Press and republished Friday by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Replying to a question on Zamir’s warning during a Thursday press conference, IDF Spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin stated that the military is short roughly 15,000 soldiers, including some 8,000 combat troops. “The chief of staff is obligated to express his position regarding the IDF’s readiness, and what is required is to pass both the conscription law and the reserve service law,” he added. In their comments, Zamir and Defrin made it clear that Netanyahu’s balancing act on the issue of haredi conscription is no longer tenable. The Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee must heed the IDF’s warning and return to the drawing board to produce an effective framework before the military reaches its limit. – Jerusalem Post

Jonatan Shimshoni writes: The bottom line is that the search for absolute security through force is a prescription for perpetual war, which is expensive, internally dislocating and internationally isolating. In short, it’s a recipe for insecurity. Israel and the U.S. may ultimately prevail militarily against Iran, though even victory (yet to be defined) could amount to winning a battle while losing a larger, more consequential war. I fear that Israel’s leaders will continue to ignore the Talmudic warning, “If you try to grab too much, you end up with nothing,” and continue relying on more force, the only tool they seem to trust. – The Hill

Yair Rosenberg writes: Intelligent political agency is impossible without a foundation of fact. Yet the rise of unrestrained AI, combined with the incentives and biases that drive social media, has served to supplant facts with consequential delusions, and helped mass-market them to the very people most inclined to believe them. Seen in this light, the embrace of Netanyahu’s mythical death isn’t a bizarre outlier, an eccentricity of the overly online; it is a preview of a new normal. – The Atlantic 

Iran

President Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, according to U.S. officials, a complex and risky mission that would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer.  – Wall Street Journal

Iran’s sprawling security apparatus isn’t solely held together by ideology. It is underpinned by a system of economic incentives that make the regime’s collapse a direct threat to the livelihood of its acolytes. – Wall Street Journal

Four of Iran’s key ballistic missile manufacturing locations and at least 29 ballistic missile launch sites have been damaged in the first four weeks of the U.S.-Israeli offensive, undermining Iran’s central military strategy, according to a Washington Post review and analysis by experts. – Washington Post

Nearly 1,500 Iranian civilians have been killed in dozens of U.S. and Israeli strikes that have hit schools, hospitals and other nonmilitary infrastructure since the Iran war began last month, a consortium of human rights groups alleged in a report issued Friday. – Washington Post

On the first day of the war with Iran, a weapon bearing the hallmarks of a newly developed U.S.-made ballistic missile was used in an attack that struck a sports hall and adjacent elementary school near a military facility in southern Iran, according to weapons experts and a visual analysis by The New York Times. – New York Times

President Trump said on Sunday night that Iran had agreed to release 20 more cargo ships of oil through the Strait of Hormuz starting on Monday, in what the president insisted was a “tribute” to the United States and a “sign of respect.” – New York Times

Airstrikes damaged residential areas and civilian facilities in Tehran on Saturday, including a prestigious university, according to Iranian media and aid groups. – New York Times 

Amid the Israeli-U.S. bombing campaign against Iran, strikes on Iran’s industrial infrastructure widened on Friday, with attacks on two major steel production complexes that are vital to the country’s economy, along with other industrial sites. – New York Times

Iran confirmed on ​Monday the ‌death of Revolutionary Guards Navy ​Commander Alireza ​Tangsiri following severe injuries, ⁠Iranian media ​reported, based ​on a statement by the guards. – Reuters

President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran have been meeting “directly and indirectly” and that Iran’s new leaders have been “very reasonable”, as more U.S troops arrived in the region and ​Tehran warned it will not accept humiliation. – Reuters

Iran executed ​two men ‌convicted of links to ​opposition ​group People’s Mojahedin ⁠Organisation of ​Iran and ​plotting armed attacks in Tehran ​using ​improvised launcher devices, its ‌judiciary ⁠news outlet said on Monday. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday discussed the possibility of a diplomatic settlement in the Iran ​war with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi, Lavrov’s ‌ministry said.-  Reuters

Iran’s weekend strikes on Middle Eastern aluminum plants are threatening to send a fragile market into crisis, raising the prospect of record prices for the metal used in everything from airplanes to food packaging and solar panels. – Bloomberg

Iran’s security forces are recruiting children as young as 12 to man checkpoints in Tehran and perform other duties during the war, an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps official told state TV on Thursday. – Agence-France Presse  

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that it will target American and Israeli universities in the Middle East as a response to a reported attack on the Iran University of Science and Technology in Tehran, the semi-official news outlet Tasnim News Agency reported on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: The Post urges policy-makers in Jerusalem and Washington to keep their judgment hardheaded. Pahlavi should not be romanticized. He should be tested by political reality, by organization, by support inside Iran, and by his ability to convert symbolism into a credible alternative. He should also not be dismissed out of habit. One of the West’s recurring failures with Iran has been its narrow imagination. Too often, policy has swung between fear of the regime and accommodation of the regime, as though the regime were the only Iran available. Israel cannot build policy on hope alone. It can, however, recognize when an Iranian voice is offering something this region rarely hears: an argument that peace with Israel belongs inside a legitimate vision of Iran’s future. That horizon is distant. It is also worth naming. – Jerusalem Post

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr writes: The opportunities for deterrence by Iran’s neighbors, with the U.S. acting as helper, remain wide and promising. Iran is not North Korea. Look at the region, look at the terrain, look at the travel patterns and information consumption of the Iranian people. While I normally avoid categorical statements, the Islamic regime is surely doomed. The question is whether U.S. and Israeli actions will end up extending or shortening its lease on life.  – Wall Street Journal

Alexander Wooley writes: The Iranians appear to have done so to great effect. The Strait of Hormuz has become a political, diplomatic and economic minefield. Trump is keen to bluster through it. He’ll find that even once it’s open for business, merchant ships will tiptoe — until someone comes along to clean up the mess. – Washington Post 

Ellie Geranmayeh writes: Ultimately, a cease-fire needs to lead to longer-term negotiations between the United States and Iran. The mediating coalition must commit itself to securing a more lasting accord that would deny Iran a pathway to obtaining nuclear weapons and pave the way to ending the enmity between the two countries. In the last hours of their ill-fated negotiations in February, Tehran and Washington seemed to be on the verge of a political breakthrough. This process needs to be revived. In the absence of a diplomatic track to bring about a lasting nonaggression pact, a cease-fire would only serve as a reprieve before the United States got sucked into another war with Iran. – Foreign Affairs

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team write: However, given the overall appearance of the activity in the image (the timing and location, the presence of a security detail with possible accompanying scientific personnel, and the accompanying truck-mounted crane for offloading), it appears to us that, of the options considered, the best match is that the blue barrels or casks contain 60 percent enriched uranium enroute to protective storage within the tunnel complex, irrespective of Iranian intent regarding its overhead observation. – Institute for Science and International Security 

Russia and Ukraine

Russia has emerged as one of the early winners in the Iran war, as surging oil prices have given its slumping economy a boost and the Trump administration has eased restrictions on Russian oil. But over the longer term, the conflict poses a much bigger threat to its global ambitions. – Wall Street Journal

A Ukrainian drone attack ​killed one person, triggered fires and ‌damaged homes and industry on Sunday in the southern Russian city of Taganrog, local ​officials said. The regional governor said ​falling drone debris prompted the evacuation ⁠of an area hit by falling ​debris. – Reuters

A Russian strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of ​Kramatorsk killed three people and ‌injured 13 on Sunday, police said, one of several attacks in frontline ​areas. – Reuters

Russia’s Baltic Ust-Luga port, one of its largest petroleum export hubs, ​was damaged again on Sunday by a Ukrainian drone ‌attack which sparked a blaze later brought under control, Russian officials said. – Reuters

Russia launched a barrage of drones in waves of attacks on ​Ukraine, killing four people and damaging gas production facilities, port infrastructure, residential buildings ‌and a maternity hospital, Ukrainian officials said on Saturday. – Reuters

A Ukrainian drone attack in Russia’s Yaroslavl region north-east ​of Moscow killed a child and ‌injured three people, while causing damage to several residential buildings and “a retail object”, ​the local governor said on ​Saturday. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s assertion that the Trump administration is demanding Kyiv hand over its eastern Donbas region to Russia to receive American security guarantees in any ceasefire plan. – Associated Press 

The price of U.S. security guarantees to end Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine became explicit this week: Kyiv must give up all of Donbas — about 10% of its territory, or about 15% of its prewar GDP. – Defense News 

Jason Willick writes: Compare that with Ukraine’s importance to Russia. Zbigniew Brzezinski famously wrote, “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” The United States has endured as a superpower despite Iran’s nearly half-century of hostility. In that sense, Vladimir Putin’s evil war is at least easier to understand. May it nonetheless fail, and may America’s succeed. – Washington Post 

Volodymyr Berezhniy and Igor Khrestin write: Ukraine is becoming a proving ground for military innovation, a builder of combat-tested systems, and a future pillar of allied industrial capacity. Washington should update how it sees Ukraine accordingly. The right long-term policy is to help integrate Ukraine into the production, data and supply-chain architecture that will shape transatlantic security tomorrow — not just to help Ukraine defend itself today. Ukraine is far more than a country at war. – The Hill

Mariya Omelicheva writes: Strategy should therefore proceed from the premise of authoritarian durability. Putin operates within a system built to absorb significant costs. As long as revenue flows remain sufficient, elites lack secure exit options, the coercive core stays cohesive, and society remains politically fragmented, he retains greater latitude to negotiate than the “trapped” narrative suggests. – War on the Rocks 

Ryan Evans writes: Russia is a common denominator in both wars. It is time for the president to stop handling these crises as if they are separate. He should punish Russia for its support for Iranian efforts to kill Americans. And a settlement in Europe will only be reached when Putin realizes that his aid to Iran and his invasion of Ukraine have reached a dead end. By letting Ukraine take the gloves off, the White House can finally create the leverage required to bring these wars to a close in way that advantages U.S. interests and will be more likely to allow Washington to finally focus on priorities in the Indo-Pacific and closer to home. – War on the Rocks 

Hezbollah

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday he had ordered the military to further expand its operations in southern Lebanon, citing continued ​rocket fire by Hezbollah. – Reuters

More than 400 fighters from Hezbollah have been killed since the Lebanese armed group launched ​the opening salvoes of a new war with Israel ‌on March 2, two sources familiar with Hezbollah’s count told Reuters. – Reuters

Israel will disarm Hezbollah if the Lebanese government continues its inaction that allows the terrorist organization to rearm and rebuild, IDF spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin threatened in a video statement released on Friday. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF uncovered a Hezbollah tunnel stocked with weapons near a church in southern Lebanon, the military announced on Friday, emphasizing the threat the terrorist organization poses to Lebanon’s Christian population. – Jerusalem Post

Two soldiers were seriously wounded and seven others were moderately hurt during clashes with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon on Friday and overnight into Saturday, Israel Defense Forces said, as the terror group continued to pound northern Israel with rocket and drone attacks. – Agence France-Presse

The IDF Home Front Command announced Friday that it will be extending the warning times for rocket fire from Lebanon, as Hezbollah has been pushed back further from the border due to recent Israeli military advances into southern Lebanon. – Agence France-Presse

Yossi Hurst writes: The question then, for Israel, is not military success. It is clear that in the northern arena, this can be achieved. It is whether the end state produced by current operations is one where the Lebanese state has the legitimacy and political space to replace Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. If not, a repeat of 1982, where a shattered society and humiliated Shia community create a successor even more difficult to dislodge. The failure of 1982 was not that Israel lost, but that it did not have an answer for what came next. This question, albeit in a new context, remains unanswered. Hezbollah must be disarmed now, whilst it remains weak. – Jerusalem Post

Afghanistan

The World Food Program says 10,000 tons of food meant for hundreds of thousands of children in Afghanistan has yet to arrive. The World Health Organization has been held up in sending a $6 million shipment of medicine to Gaza. And Save the Children warns that 90 primary health care facilities in Sudan could be left without essential supplies. – Washington Post

Afghanistan and Pakistan have traded heavy fire, both sides said, days after they announced a temporary pause in ​fighting, escalating tensions in the volatile region as Islamabad said it hopes to host potential ‌talks between the U.S. and Iran. – Reuters 

Heavy rain that triggered severe flooding and caused buildings to collapse has killed 22 ​people and injured 32 in Afghanistan over the ‌last two days, the country’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said on Monday, as it warned of continued risk due to bad weather. – Reuters

Syria

Protests erupted in the Syrian town of Al-Suqaylabiyah over the weekend after residents said men from the nearby Sunni town of Qalaat al-Madiq attacked the predominantly Christian community following a dispute between two individuals. – Jerusalem Post

Syrian authorities said Saturday that they found and closed a tunnel between their country and Lebanon they believed was used for smuggling by “Lebanese militias.” – Alarabiya

More than 1,700 people were killed, nearly 200,000 displaced and multiple actors including Syrian government forces, tribal fighters ​and Druze armed groups committed acts that may amount to war crimes during a week of violence in ‌southern Syria in July 2025, a U.N. investigation said on Friday. – Reuters

Iraq

A drone attack targeted the home of the president of ​Iraq’s Kurdistan Region early on Saturday, security sources ‌said, in an incident that comes as tensions continue to rise across northern Iraq. – Reuters

A drone ​crashed inside ‌Iraq’s Majnoon oilfield ​in ​Basra province on ⁠Saturday ​morning ​but did not explode ​and ​caused no material ‌damage ⁠or casualties, Iraq defense ​ministry ​said. – Reuters

Britain on Friday sanctioned ​two Iraqi men for what ‌it describes as their roles as senior Islamic State financial operatives in helping manage ​the group’s revenue streams and ​supporting its leadership structure. – Reuters

Iraq’s Defence Ministry ​said on ‌Monday that the Mohamad ​Alaa ​air base, located ⁠beside Baghdad ​International Airport, ​was hit by rockets in ​the ​early hours of Monday, ‌destroying ⁠an aircraft but causing no ​casualties. – Reuters

Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has, in a written message, thanked the people of Iraq for their support in the Islamic Republic’s war against the United States and Israel, Iranian media said on Sunday. – Agence France-Presse 

Robert F. Worth writes: It was a hopeful scenario, and I wondered if it was as unlikely, in its way, as the more aggressive proposals coming from other Kurds. Watandust seemed to guess what I was thinking. “The real alternatives to this regime are not outside Iran,” he said. “They are inside—the political prisoners, union activists, teachers, journalists in jail, women and men. They are the real leadership. And the West cannot dictate an alternative from outside.” – The Atlantic

Lebanon

Hundreds of mourners gathered in driving rain in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, on Sunday to bury two prominent Lebanese television journalists and a cameraman killed in an Israeli airstrike a day earlier. – New York Times

An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon on Saturday killed two prominent Lebanese television journalists and a cameraman, according to their news organizations and Lebanese officials. The attack was condemned by the country’s president and rights groups, and it raised questions about the scope of Israel’s targets. – New York Times

The U.N. peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said a peacekeeper was killed when a projectile exploded at one of its positions near the southern Lebanese ​village of Adchit al-Qusayr on Sunday. – Reuters

Israeli forces killed three Lebanese journalists in southern Lebanon on Saturday in ​an airstrike that Israel’s military said had targeted one of the reporters, with a follow‑up strike on the rescue workers sent to assist them also ‌causing fatalities. – Reuters

More than 370,000 children have ​been forced from their homes in Lebanon in just three weeks, as intensified ‌Israeli strikes and mass evacuation orders trigger one of the fastest and largest population displacements in the country’s history, UN officials said on Friday. – Reuters

Iran’s ambassador will not leave Lebanon despite being declared persona non grata and ordered to leave the country by Sunday, an Iranian diplomatic source told AFP. – Agence France-Presse

Saudi Arabia

At least 10 U.S. troops were injured Friday, two seriously, in an Iranian attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. – Washington Post

An Iranian strike on an American military base in Saudi Arabia, injuring two dozen troops. Two drones targeting a port in Oman, and a strike on the Kuwait International Airport. Workers at an aluminum facility in Abu Dhabi wounded by a missile and drone attack. – New York Times

Ukraine and Saudi Arabia have signed an agreement on defence cooperation ‌that lays the foundation for future contracts, technological cooperation and investments, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday. – Reuters

The destruction of a US Air Force E-3 Sentry aircraft in an Iranian strike on a Saudi Arabia air base could damage US abilities to spot incoming Iranian threats at distance, analysts say. – CNN

Gulf States

Ukrainian President Volodymyr ​​Zelensky toured Gulf countries under attack from Iran, signing defense and security deals that harness Ukraine’s innovative military prowess while trying to portray fighting there as part of a global battle against allies Iran and Russia. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine on Saturday agreed to cooperate on defence with the United ‌Arab Emirates and Qatar as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy travelled to both countries amid escalating tensions in the region. – Reuters

An Indian worker ​was killed ‌in an Iranian attack on ​a ​power and water ⁠desalination plant ​in Kuwait, ​which also damaged a service building ​at ​the facility, Kuwait’s Ministry ‌of ⁠Electricity and Water said early on ​Monday ​in ⁠a post ​on social ​media ⁠website X. – Reuters

Oman’s foreign ministry said on Sunday that it condemns attacks ​on its territory, adding that no ‌party has claimed responsibility. – Reuters

Six people were ‌injured after three fires broke out in Abu ​Dhabi on Saturday ​as a result of debris ⁠falling from a ​ballistic missile interception, the emirate’s ​media office said. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit has arrived in the Middle East, bringing a range of capabilities into theater and giving President Trump more options in the war against Iran. Some of the MEU’s primary missions involve seizing territory, conducting raids and intercepting vessels. – Wall Street Journal

The families of dozens of jailed opposition figures in Tunisia are among the few remaining voices demanding democratic freedoms, as they seek the release of loved ones held in what rights groups have called ​a crackdown on dissent by President Kais Saied. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he discussed a ​possible security partnership on Sunday with Jordan’s King Abdullah over ‌defending against drone attacks amid rising tensions over the Iran conflict. – Reuters

Egypt will slow down large state projects that involve high fuel and ​diesel consumption for at least two months, while fuel ‌allocations for all government vehicles will be cut by 30%, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said on Saturday. – Reuters

Production at Libya’s Sharara oilfield is ​expected to return ‌to normal levels within 48 hours, two ​field engineers told ​Reuters on Sunday. Output at ⁠the field was ​gradually shut down following ​an explosion earlier this month caused by a ​fire in one ​of its pipelines. – Reuters

Arab foreign ministers on Sunday appointed veteran Egyptian diplomat Nabil Fahmy as the head of the 22-member Arab League, at a time the Middle East is plunged in a monthlong Iran war that shows no sign of abating. – Associated Press

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s March exports probably rose at the ‌strongest pace in nearly five years on a boom in chip demand fuelled by artificial intelligence investment, although the Iran war was set to drive up imports and inflation, a Reuters poll ​showed on Monday. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attended a ground test of a solid-fuel rocket engine ​made with carbon-fibre materials, as well as inspections of special operations forces ‌training and a new main battle tank, state media KCNA said on Sunday. – Reuters

South Korea’s Industry Ministry has confirmed the import of 27,000 ‌tons of Russian naphtha arriving on Monday. The ministry declined to confirm where the shipment would arrive or whether it was for a single South ​Korean firm or several. – Reuters

South Korea is considering extending driving curbs to the general public if global oil prices climb further, senior officials said, as authorities seek to ​rein in energy demand amid supply strains due to the U.S.-Israeli war ‌with Iran. – Reuters

China’s flag carrier resumed direct flights between Beijing and North Korea’s capital of Pyongyang on Monday not long after the restoration of passenger train services between the capitals. – Associated Press

China

The leader of Taiwan’s largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), will visit China in April after ​being invited by Chinese President Xi Jinping, a trip that will come a month ‌before U.S. President Donald Trump goes to Beijing for his own summit. – Reuters

China’s top diplomat in ​Hong Kong has met the senior U.S. ‌diplomat in the city to protest against a U.S. public alert over new security rules in Hong Kong, ​the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. – Reuters

China imposed sanctions on Monday on Japanese lawmaker Keiji Furuya, a close ​aide of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, due to his “collusion with ‌Taiwan independence” forces, in its latest move in a diplomatic row over Taiwan. – Reuters

The Philippines and China have resumed high-level talks this week over the disputed South China Sea, exploring preliminary steps toward oil and gas ​cooperation while addressing energy and fertilizer supply issues amid the ongoing ‌Middle East conflict, the Philippine foreign ministry said. – Reuters

China conducted naval, air and coast guard patrols around the Scarborough ​Shoal in the South China Sea ‌on Sunday, its military and Coast Guard said. – Reuters

China raised the cap on institutional investors’ overseas securities purchases by the most since 2021, aiming to advance financial opening and meet greater domestic demand for offshore investment. – Bloomberg

At least three Chinese-linked vessels reportedly turned back abruptly after attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz last Friday, signaling an unusual move in typically friendly Tehran‑Beijing relations amid the ongoing regional crisis. – FOX

Editorial: China doesn’t get the disproportionate increase in the quota it wants in this deal. But the U.S. loss of control over IMF funding will be celebrated in Beijing. So will the new money for many of China’s debtors in the developing world, where it’s the largest creditor. IMF resources would be used more liberally to bail out distressed Chinese loans. The 2026 quota request didn’t pass Congress, and Mr. Bessent can kill it in the budget cradle this year. This would send a message to the fund that the U.S. wants more responsible stewardship of resources. Putting an end to its climate policy bias and its support for competitive currency devaluations would be a good start. How about some pro-growth economics? Anything less is America last. – Wall Street Journal

Zongyuan Zoe Liu writes: A declining United States may prove more dangerous than a strong one: an unsteady superpower increasingly tempted to use force while it still can. Chinese leaders understand what American policymakers often miss: not everything that weakens the United States strengthens China. The Trump administration’s missteps do not advantage China as much as destabilize the system both powers still depend on. – Foreign Affairs 

Stacie Pettyjohn and Molly Campbell write: The Hellscape concept shifts the strategic calculus. The question is no longer whether Taiwan can win a conventional war against China. The question is whether Beijing can stomach the operational chaos, staggering casualties, and strategic uncertainty that an invasion would bring. By making an assault prohibitively costly and dangerously unpredictable, Taiwan can deter it from happening in the first place. – War on the Rocks 

South Asia

Pakistan, a country once isolated by Washington for harboring Osama bin Laden, is assuming a surprisingly prominent position in the multinational effort to push the U.S. and Iran toward the negotiating table. – Wall Street Journal

Two India-bound liquefied petroleum gas tankers carrying about 94,000 metric tons of the cooking ​gas have safely transited the Strait of ‌Hormuz and are heading towards India, the government said on Sunday. – Reuters

Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s military chief who led a ​coup in 2021, stepped down on Monday to stand as president in a parliamentary vote following the first polls in the ‌Southeast Asian nation since the takeover that triggered a civil war. – Reuters

Nuclear power is getting a second look in Southeast Asia as countries prepare to meet surging energy demand as they vie for artificial intelligence-focused data centers. – Associated Press 

Aishwaria Sonavane writes: With the Taliban entrenched hold, and reluctance, the tensions in this region are likely to persist. The most pertinent security threat for Pakistan remains retribution from the Taliban. This could raise fresh security challenges for Pakistan’s already overstretched military. Cross-border attacks by the TTP across the border and their expansion into urban areas would add to unrest in the Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. The TTP may even aim to target Punjab, the most populous province and the heart of the Pakistani establishment. Internationally, Pakistan finds itself in a precarious position. Its western neighbor, Iran, is embroiled in a conflict with the United States and Israel. To the east, there is the sensitive border with India, which Pakistan provoked last year. In this context, Pakistan’s tactically successful strikes against the Taliban may merely presage a strategic defeat. – National Interest

Asia

Today, Japan’s decadeslong embrace of pacifism is fading as the country confronts a more dangerous and unpredictable world. Wary of China’s expanding military power and anxious over U.S. commitments to protect its allies in Asia, more Japanese say military spending should be increased to safeguard their country and deter aggression in the region that surrounds it. – Wall Street Journal

Allies and partners of the United States in Asia are steeling themselves for what they see as the nightmare scenario of a long American war in the Middle East that would distract from their own security concerns about China. – Washington Post

U.S. lawmakers visiting Taipei urged Taiwan’s parliament on ​Monday to approve a stalled $40 billion defence budget, warning that delays could weaken the island’s ability to ‌deter Chinese military pressure despite U.S. security and arms support. – Reuters

Nepal’s former prime ​minister, K.P. Sharma Oli, was arrested on Saturday as police investigate whether he was negligent in failing ‌to prevent dozens of deaths in a crackdown on Gen Z-led anti-corruption protests last September, officials said. – Reuters

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said on Saturday that he expected the country to have a new government next week, with a list of ​new cabinet members to be submitted for royal endorsement on Monday. – Reuters

Australia and India will meet for trade talks in the next few weeks, Trade Minister Don Farrell said Monday, as the government seeks to conclude another deal with New Delhi after an agreement with the European Union. – Bloomberg

Europe

Eurozone finance ministers raised expectations for higher prices and lowered them for economic growth this year as the Iran war continues to roil energy markets. “The outlook is clouded by profound uncertainty, but it is clear that we are at the risk of stagflationary shock,” Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission’s economy chief, told reporters Friday at a Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers. – Wall Street Journal

Last year, Denmark’s national broadcaster delivered a bombshell of a story: Three Americans with ties to President Trump, it reported, were running “covert influence operations” in Greenland, the Danish territory that Mr. Trump covets. – New York Times  

As President Trump publicly laments Europe’s refusal to join the Iran war, European defense officials are privately in advanced and detailed discussions to help secure the waters off Iran’s coast once the war ends, according to two senior European officials briefed on the talks. – New York Times 

Spain has closed its airspace to U.S. planes involved in attacks on Iran, ​a step beyond its previous denial of use ‌of jointly-operated military bases, Spanish newspaper El Pais reported on Monday, citing military sources. – Reuters

Finland reported on ‌Sunday a suspected territorial violation by unmanned aerial vehicles in the southeast of the country, which the Finnish prime minister said was likely linked to Ukrainian drone attacks against Russia. – Reuters

Moldovan opposition parties on Sunday demanded an explanation from the pro-European government for the imposition of a sweeping energy state of ​an emergency over a damaged power line which took four days ‌to repair. – Reuters

British counter ‌terrorism officers are assisting police after a driver who struck pedestrians in the city of Derby on Saturday night was arrested on suspicion of ​attempted murder, police said on Sunday. – Reuters

French anti-terrorism prosecutors have opened an investigation into ‌a suspected attack targeting Bank of America’s (BAC.N) Paris headquarters after the reported overnight arrest of a man who allegedly tried to ignite an improvised explosive device outside the U.S. bank’s premises. – Reuters

Anthony Luzzatto Gardner writes: Before Trump’s second term, Brussels’s views on China were rapidly hardening, and moving into alignment with Washington’s. That alignment could be restored, as both the EU and the United States have an interest in working together to prevent China from setting the terms of global order. And doing so might serve as the starting point for a return to a fuller agenda, as well as giving Washington the opportunity to reconsider its dangerous hostility to such a long-standing ally. – Foreign Affairs 

Max Bergmann, Otto Svendsen, and Jonathan Burchell write: Therefore, instead of trying to inhibit European defense production, the United States’ focus should be ensuring that, if needed, it can also access those production lines and that European production can be used on U.S. platforms. A robust European defense industrial base should be seen by U.S. policymakers as a strategic priority, even if it causes some commercial concerns for U.S. companies. European production is therefore not a divergence from U.S. interests but a prerequisite for burden shifting that will see Europe taking more responsibility for its own defense and relieving pressure on the United States and its depleted stockpiles. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Africa

Emergency cholera medical ​supplies for several African countries have become stuck in a logistical quagmire caused by the Iran ‌war, aid officials told Reuters, raising concerns about preparations ahead of the high-risk rainy season. – Reuters

Democratic Republic of Congo and China have signed a ​deal to deepen cooperation in the African nation’s mining sector, Congo’s government said, as ‌global powers jockey for influence in the strategically important minerals powerhouse. – Reuters

Namibia’s government will temporarily reduce fuel levies by 50% for at least three months until the end of June in ​a bid to protect consumers from higher pump prices as ‌the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran continues, the energy minister said on Friday. – Reuters

South Africa appointed career diplomat Thabo Thage as its so-called minister plenipotentiary to Washington as it finalizes the selection of a permanent ambassador, Business Day reported. – Bloomberg

The Americas

A federal indictment unsealed the day U.S. commandos pulled Flores and Maduro from their Caracas bedroom accused her of conspiring with top Venezuelan officials to smuggle hundreds of tons of cocaine into the U.S., accepting bribes to allow drug flights and ordering murders. – Wall Street Journal

A U.S. federal appeals court ruled Friday that Argentina doesn’t have to pay shareholders $16 billion for its takeover of the country’s biggest oil company, handing President Javier Milei a victory that will help his free-market overhaul. – Wall Street Journal

World Trade Organization talks ended deadlocked early on Monday as Brazil blocked a bid by the U.S. and other countries to extend ​a moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions, dealing a fresh blow to the embattled trade body. – Reuters

The U.S. on Friday issued new, Venezuela-related general ​licenses for critical ​mineral investment and operations, according ⁠to the U.S. ​Treasury Department. The licenses authorize “the ​supply of certain items and services for minerals operations” and “negotiations ​of and entry into ​contingent contracts for certain investment ‌in ⁠Venezuela’s minerals sector,” according to the Treasury Department website. – Reuters

North America

With a Russian tanker loaded with crude oil nearing Cuba, President Donald Trump said late Sunday he would not enforce his effective blockade against fuel supplies to the island. – Washington Post

The Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, carrying a humanitarian shipment of 100,000 metric tons of crude oil, ​has arrived in Cuba, Interfax news agency reported ‌on Monday, citing the Russian Ministry of Transport. – Reuters

Two sailboats carrying humanitarian aid from Mexico arrived safely ​in Havana on Saturday, the Mexican Navy said, concluding a journey ‌in which the vessels were delayed by bad weather and briefly reported missing. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump on ​Friday said “Cuba is next” during a speech at an investment ‌forum in Miami during which he touted the successes of U.S. military action in Venezuela and Iran. – Reuters

Mexican authorities said ‌on Friday they have potentially identified more than 40,000 people listed as disappeared who may be alive, by cross-referencing official databases such as tax records and marriage registries. – Reuters

The European Union and the parties to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership agreed on Friday to move ​forward with reaching a “historic” digital trade agreement between both ​trading blocs, Canada’s trade minister said. – Reuters

As many as 1,000 former members of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may be embedded across Canada — and posing an urgent security threat to the US, experts told The Post. – New York Post

Quico Toro writes: For nearly seven decades, Americans who worked to contain Cuban influence genuinely believed in the cause that they were fighting for, even when the methods they used in the fight betrayed their ideals. The Cuban regime spent decades warning about an imperialist American enemy that didn’t quite exist. Now that enemy is at the doors, and the revolution has nothing left. – The Atlantic

United States

Protesters filled the streets Saturday at more than 3,300 rallies across all 50 states for No Kings, a movement that bills itself as nonviolent opposition to what organizers view as authoritarian rulers in the White House and beyond. – Washington Post

Trump administration officials have ordered F.B.I. agents to gather documents about a decade-old investigation into a Democratic congressman and his ties to a suspected Chinese spy, according to people familiar with the matter. – New York Times

A civilian plane violated a no-fly zone on Sunday near ​President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence ‌in Palm Beach, Florida, before being “safely escorted out of the area,” the ​North American Aerospace Defense ​Command said. – Reuters

 

Cybersecurity

Iran-linked hackers have broken into ​FBI Director Kash Patel’s personal email inbox, publishing photographs of the director and other documents to the internet, the hackers and the ‌bureau said on Friday. – Reuters

A ‌leading artificial intelligence conference on Friday reversed a policy change that would have banned papers from researchers at any entity under U.S. sanctions, soon after a boycott from China’s ​largest federation for technology professionals. – Reuters

As they fled an Iranian missile strike, some Israelis with Android phones received a text offering a link to real-time information about bomb shelters. But instead of a helpful app, the link downloaded spyware giving hackers access to the device’s camera, location and all its data. – Associated Press 

Defense

The U.S. military has fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in four weeks of war with Iran, burning through the precision weapons at a rate that has alarmed some Pentagon officials and prompted internal discussions about how to make more available, said people familiar with the matter. – Washington Post

The U.S. aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, which had been deployed in U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran, anchored in ​Croatia’s Adriatic port of Split on Saturday for repairs ‌and maintenance. – Reuters

Editorial: After Anthropic’s purge, OpenAI moved in and allayed its surveillance concerns to work with the Pentagon. But by most accounts Claude is more advanced now than what either OpenAI or Elon Musk’s Grok model can deliver to the Pentagon. Anthropic’s legal victory is an opportunity for both Mr. Amodei and the Pentagon to work out a compromise. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: The good news is that no military in the world learns on the job faster than America’s. The Army’s Center for Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth in Kansas exists for exactly this purpose — pulling what works from the battlefield and pushing it back across the force. Institutions such as these helped the U.S. military in Iraq adapt to a battlefield shaped by roadside bombs, fielding thousands of mine-resistant vehicles in under three years. The Barksdale incident is a wake-up call that it’s time to take drone defense far more seriously. Staying a step ahead of America’s enemies requires constant experimentation and innovation. – Washington Post 

Editorial: Concerns about revealing too much are understandable. But the US has been more open about past defense initiatives — including former President Ronald Reagan’s aborted “Star Wars” program — without undermining operational security. Indeed, the US could dangle the possibility of discussing Golden Dome in more detail with China and Russia as part of talks over their nuclear arsenals and investments in worrying new weapons. Undue secrecy over the program risks raising both expectations and fears unnecessarily. The White House should welcome this opportunity to lower both. – Bloomberg