Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel on Sunday said it was stopping the entry of goods into the Gaza Strip after a 42-day cease-fire expired a day earlier without any agreement with Hamas on what comes next. – Wall Street Journal

Israel detailed its failings in a report on the attack released by its military this week. Along with the discrete mistakes was a big-picture intelligence blunder of a type that has repeated itself regularly throughout history. They are so common that scholars have a name for them—“strategic intelligence failures”—an inability to see the forest for the trees. – Wall Street Journal

The State Department made a recommendation to halt funding to several Israeli military units over the reported abuse of Palestinian detainees during the final months of the Biden administration, former officials said, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken stopped short of authorizing what would have been an unprecedented rebuke of Israel’s armed forces. – Washington Post

Now, with the first phase of the deal over on Sunday and Israel introducing an entirely new proposal that Hamas has already rejected, concern is rising that the fighting that reduced Gaza to rubble, killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and threatened the lives of hostages could resume. – New York Times

Mr. Sharabi and several other released hostages were flying to the United States on Monday to meet this week with administration officials, including a potential audience with President Trump. Mr. Sharabi’s mother and three remaining siblings rejoiced over his return on Feb. 8, part of a cease-fire involving exchanges of hostages for Palestinian prisoners. But they said they had agonized beforehand, not knowing whether he was aware of the fate of his family or how they might break the news to him. – New York Times

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has invoked “emergency authorities” to bypass Congress and send $4 billion in weapons to Israel, the second time in a month that the Trump administration has skirted the process of congressional approval for sending arms to the country. – New York Times

Switzerland has invited 196 states who are parties to the Geneva Conventions to participate in a conference next week on the situation of civilians living in the Israeli occupied territories, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Friday. – Reuters

Israel is lobbying the United States to keep Syria weak and decentralised, including by letting Russia keep its military bases there to counter Turkey’s growing influence in the country, four sources familiar with the efforts said. – Reuters

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said on Sunday that Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan, which ensures Palestinians remain in their land, is ready and will be presented at an emergency Arab summit in Cairo on Tuesday. – Reuters

Israel’s defense minister says minority Druze in Jaramana, a town south of Damascus, were under attack from the new Syrian regime and that he ordered Israeli forces to be poised to help protect them if necessary. – Bloomberg

Following the 2014 war in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a Saudi offer to rebuild the Strip, oust Hamas and replace it with the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, according to a Friday report. – Times of Israel

Arab states, the United Nations and rights groups issued condemnations Sunday of Israel’s decision to halt the flow of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, though the US was supportive, after the first phase of Israel’s hostage-ceasefire deal with Hamas lapsed with the terror group yet to commit to freeing any more of its captives. – Times of Israel

The police and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) arrested a resident of Beersheba on suspicion that he offered to sell an Iranian agent information on Israel’s Negev Nuclear Research Center, the two agencies announced on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Dan Perry writes: This is a moment of truth for all parties. Israel should prioritize the hostages and rediscover its strategic bearing. The Arab League should do something constructive for perhaps the first time in its history. And the world should demand a future for Gaza that does not involve perpetual war and tyranny at the hands of nihilist jihadi madmen. – The Hill

Neville Teller writes: So it seems clear that, as part of phase two, if it eventually comes into effect, Israel will be demanding the release of all hostages in addition to the dismantling of the Hamas military and, possibly, the expulsion of the Hamas leadership from Gaza. Only then would Israel consider withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor. Hamas is not likely to accept these demands. However, while keeping its true long-term aims under wraps, Hamas might go along with the Egyptian proposals, especially if they emerge as a unified Arab plan. – Jerusalem Post

Attorney Eyal Rosovsky writes: In any case, the current legal situation cannot continue. If the law isn’t amended, the prosecution of a sitting prime minister will threaten the state’s existence as a law-abiding nation. Clearly, Netanyahu’s trial must be concluded as soon as possible. The required law amendment should be forward-looking and apply to future prime ministers. – Jerusalem Post

Avi Abelow: Only Israel can be the sovereign rebuilding Gaza with Jewish resettlement, acting as the most powerful deterrent against our enemies, ensuring that Trump’s “peace through strength” is truly implemented. Our challenge is to ensure that our entire homeland is controlled by Israel while allowing peaceful Arabs to live among us. The Druze in southern Syria are already asking Israel to stay and protect them because they know what happens when Israel leaves. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Mandel writes: Israel doesn’t want a power vacuum south of Damascus and it doesn’t want Syria to become a Turkish puppet regime. So it is taking steps to secure its interests, as any responsible state would, by shoring up its allies and its defenses. The fact that this is controversial while the post-Oct. 7 war is extant is childish and, frankly, hypocritical: One does not hear much caterwauling about Turkey securing its interests in Syria. – Commentary Magazine

Dennis Ross and Assaf Orion write: One thing we know for sure: if the politics on each side predominate, hostages won’t be released, Gazans will continue to suffer, and the war will be ongoing. A serious day-after approach, practically defined so it can actually be implemented, is needed. President Trump has shaken up the chessboard with his proposal but with no means to act on it. Our four-zone approach offers a pathway that could be implemented, but it will take the administration working with the Arabs and Israelis to produce it. – National Interest

Russia & Ukraine

The U.K. and France said they would lead a European effort to forge a Ukraine peace plan to present to President Trump, as they sought to patch up differences between Kyiv and Washington following Friday’s White House clash. – Wall Street Journal

The complex task of negotiating an agreement to halt the Ukraine-Russia war now faces another daunting obstacle—the fractured relationship between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump excoriated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of “gambling with World War III” during a meeting Friday that devolved into a fiery clash, calling into question efforts to reset relations between Washington and Kyiv. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took half steps over the weekend to repair the damage done in an Oval Office blowout, expressing gratitude to the U.S., and President Trump personally, for military aid over the years. But Zelensky offered no apology, a sign of the difficult road ahead for him in Washington. – Wall Street Journal

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Sunday announced a new 1.6 billion pound ($2 billion) deal that would allow Ukraine to purchase 5,000 air-defence missiles using export finance. – Reuters

Top Republicans aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday to change his position on the war with Russia or step aside, ramping up pressure on the Ukrainian leader after a contentious White House meeting last week. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Sunday praised U.S. President Donald Trump’s “common sense” aim to end the war in Ukraine, but accused the European powers which have rallied around Kyiv of seeking to prolong the conflict. – Reuters

NATO chief Mark Rutte said on Saturday he told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that he needs to find a way to restore his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump after their clash at a White House meeting on Friday. – Reuters

Russian drones struck a medical facility and other targets late on Friday in Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, wounding at least seven people, local officials said. – Reuters

Russia said on Friday it had suggested restoring direct air links with the United States at what it described as “substantive and businesslike” talks in Turkey. – Reuters

International atomic monitors are for the first time traveling through Russian territory rather than Ukraine to reach Europe’s biggest nuclear-power plant, said three diplomats briefed on the matter — a blow to Kyiv’s desire to avoid international recognition of the Kremlin’s ownership claims. – Bloomberg

Editorial: President Trump no doubt resents having to deal with a war he thinks he might have prevented had he won in 2020. But Presidents have to deal with the world they inherit. Peace in Ukraine is salvageable, but he and Mr. Zelensky will have to work together on an agreement that Ukrainians can live with. Mr. Trump does not want to be the President who abandoned Ukraine to Vladimir Putin with all the bloodshed and damage to U.S. interests that would result. Mr. Vance won’t like to run for President in such a world either. – Wall Street Journal

Daniel Balson writes: As the White House works to end the war, it should begin by heeding the wisdom of the voters who put Mr. Trump in office. If he produces lasting peace, he will be celebrated. If it is fleeting and exploitative, his supporters will see it as weakness and a distraction from the mandate they gave him. And if the war goes on because of Messrs. Trump’s and Vance’s personal pique against Mr. Zelensky, that will be a tragedy. Republican voters back many of the policies the White House is pursuing, but they didn’t vote to surrender Ukraine to Mr. Putin’s ravenous ambitions. – Wall Street Journal

Marc A. Thiessen writes: Right now, Zelensky seems incapable of managing his country’s relations with Trump. Trump can be magnanimous and has made the path to reconciliation clear: If Zelensky apologizes, Trump will invite him back the White House to sign the minerals pact and all will be forgiven. Right now, Zelensky is refusing, insisting he did nothing wrong. That is not sustainable. Either Zelensky needs to apologize and mend the breach, or he needs to step down and allow someone else to do it. – Washington Post

Hal Brands writes: Finally, standing on principle isn’t as pointless as Trump makes it seem. Support for the principle that conquest is inadmissible, and that conquerors should be contained and condemned, has underpinned our remarkably peaceful, prosperous post-1945 era. The widespread view that the US stands for something beyond its own enrichment has long aided its ability to attract allies and partners around the globe. – Bloomberg

Tetiana Kyselova and Yuna Potomkina write: The Minsk negotiation process did facilitate a temporary de-escalation of hostilities. But ultimately, it undermined the search for a long-term solution, set the stage for a more devastating conflict, and tarnished the legacy of all involved with it. A resolution that applies Minsk’s lessons will be essential to safeguarding U.S. interests, as well as Trump’s reputation. – Foreign Affairs

Marek Magierowski writes: Trump, to put it mildly, has never been fond of either Ukraine or Zelensky himself. Today, there is just more anger and plain aversion in him towards the Ukrainian president. We may be irritated by this astonishing lack of empathy for the suffering nation. We may be surprised that Trump speaks at the same time in warm words about the “sacrifice made by the Soviet Union during World War II,” about the “wonderful business prospects” for the U.S. and Russia, or about the “nice Russian oligarchs.” That he calls Zelensky a “dictator” but steadfastly refuses to use the same term when asked about Putin. – National Interest

Iraq

Iraq’s Ministry of Oil said on Saturday it had invited global foreign companies operating under the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) umbrella, along with firms contracted by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), to a meeting in Baghdad on March 4. – Reuters

Turkey wants an Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline to operate at maximum capacity once it resumes flows through Turkey’s Ceyhan, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar was quoted as saying by the state-owned Anadolu news agency on Sunday. – Reuters

Iraqi Kurdish villagers, displaced by fighting between Turkish forces and Kurdish militants that has played out for years in northern Iraq, are finally allowing themselves to hope they will soon be able to go home. – Associated Press

Lebanon

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun will ask Saudi Arabia to reactivate a $3-billion aid package to the Lebanese army in his visit to the kingdom next week, Aoun said in an interview with Asharq television broadcast on Friday. – Reuters

Lebanon seized $2.5 million in cash from a man arriving from Turkey on Friday, the finance ministry said, with three sources saying the money was destined for militant group Hezbollah. – Reuters

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah became depressed and was emotionally changed by Israel’s exploding pager attack on his operatives as well as by strikes that decimated the group’s leadership, his family told Lebanese media. – Times of Israel

Korean Peninsula

Two North Korean soldiers captured by Ukraine knew nothing about the war they were sent to fight. They were handed Kalashnikov rifles and told they would be facing off against South Koreans who were aiding Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson arrived at the southern city of Busan in South Korea on Sunday as a show of force, South Korea’s navy said. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with a senior North Korean official in Moscow on Thursday, North Korea’s state news agency said on Saturday. – Reuters

South Korea’s industry minister requested a tariff exemption in talks with the U.S. administration, Seoul’s industry ministry said on Saturday, as Washington moves forward with plans to impose new tariffs. – Reuters

Crowds of South Koreans filled downtown Seoul in one of the largest protests since President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached for his martial law declaration, as judges enter the final stretch of their deliberations on whether to confirm his ouster or reinstate him. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Bangladeshi students at the forefront of protests that ousted Sheikh Hasina as prime minister last year launched a political party on Friday to contest elections likely to be held by the end of the year. – Reuters

Hundreds of foreign nationals pulled out of scam compounds in Myanmar during a crackdown on centres run by criminal gangs have little food, scant healthcare and filthy toilets in the remote militia camp they have been taken to, two detainees said. – Reuters

India’s trade minister Piyush Goyal started on a trip to the United States on Monday to pursue trade talks, two government officials said, with weeks to go for President Donald Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs. – Reuters

Mihir Sharma writes: Brussels’ technocrats may not have planned to give off a faint air of desperation as they lined up for photographs with Modi in New Delhi. But, given the situation that their region is in, desperation is better than the alternative. Indians, meanwhile, accept they can’t solve all the EU’s problems. But they also know that the EU needs to build and repair as many relationships as it can, as soon as it can. – Bloomberg

Marvin G. Weinbaum and Naade Ali write: The emerging security order in the area bounded by Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and China is above all driven by a widely shared fear of transnational radical Islamic terrorism and insurgency. It has at its fulcrum an Afghanistan that either cannot or dares not try to contain or eliminate terrorist organizations operating from within the country. However displeased the neighboring states may be with certain Taliban regime policies, they nevertheless stand in general agreement that a stable, peaceful, and reasonably effective Kabul government is necessary to serve their bilateral and collective political and economic interests. – Middle East Institute

Europe

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer greeted President Volodymyr Zelenskiy with a warm embrace on Saturday after the Ukrainian leader flew to London for talks following his clash at the White House with U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Sunday dismissed calls to cancel the offer of a state visit to U.S. President Donald Trump after his extraordinary row with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House. – Reuters

Finland will release an oil tanker which investigators believe broke a Baltic Sea power cable and four internet lines late last year, and will escort the vessel to international waters even as the criminal probe continues, police said on Sunday. – Reuters

The parties in talks to form Germany’s new government are considering quickly setting up two special funds potentially worth hundreds of billions of euros, one for defence and a second for infrastructure, three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.- Reuters

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that some European leaders had privately set out new plans on defence spending during a meeting in London, but he declined to give details, saying it was for individual leaders to set them out. – Reuters

Europe urgently needs to rearm and member states must be given the fiscal space to carry out a surge in defence spending, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday after a meeting about support for Ukraine. – Reuters

NATO member Norway will continue to supply fuel for U.S. Navy ships, the country’s defence minister said on Sunday, after a call from a private marine fuel supplier to stop doing so in response to the apparent breakdown in U.S.-Ukrainian relations. – Reuters

Serbia’s deputy prime minister followed up on a meeting with Russia’s spy chief in Moscow by accusing Western intelligence agencies on Friday of trying to destabilise the country by backing months of anti-government protests. – Reuters

British Energy Secretary Ed Miliband will visit China in March to restart talks on energy cooperation and meet Chinese investors, three sources with direct knowledge of the plan said, as the Labour government seeks closer China ties amid worsening U.S.- and EU-China relations. – Reuters

An Iranian woman who opposes the Islamic despotic regime in Iran, as millions of Iranians do, and was to engage in dialogue about Iranians connecting with Israelis, was prevented from speaking at an event in England when pro-Palestinian demonstrators screamed and would not let her speak. – Daily Wire

John Bolton writes: Mr. Trump never appreciated Winston Churchill’s insight that “there is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them.” Accordingly, advancing U.S. national-security interests under Mr. Trump, and saving our admittedly imperfect alliances, requires enduring before prevailing. One answer is to outlast him, distract him and find him other targets. But the most important course is to tell the truth to the American people, starting now. – Wall Street Journal

Imran Khalid writes: Factually speaking, Starmer’s visit was not about seeking Trump’s approval. It was about adapting to a shifting global order. If Europe is to remain secure and relevant, it must do so on its own terms, while recognizing that America’s role in the world has changed. That is the reality of the evolving transatlantic relationship with Trump 2.0 in the White House. – The Hill

Wolfgang Ischinger writes: The essay ends with a prophetic assertion. “The task ahead is as daunting as its necessity is evident. To turn away from the challenge would only mean paying a higher price later.” Yes, Europe needs the United States to end the war in Ukraine permanently. But the United States will need Europe to successfully accomplish that task. Let’s hope that the Trump White House comes to recognize that reality. – Foreign Affairs

Max Bergmann writes: As opposed to resisting the EU having a role in common defense, European states and their national ministries of defense, should realize this is the United States’ ultimate goal for NATO. The U.S. objective in NATO was never to keep the “Americans in” indefinitely. The U.S. goal was to use NATO to birth a new integrated Europe in the United States’ image. It is time to realize that. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Joseph de Weck writes: American security guarantees have protected the Federal Republic of Germany since 1945. Never since then has a chancellor of that country suggested that it emancipate itself from Washington. Not even France’s Emmanuel Macron, who has called for building a “sovereign Europe” capable of defending itself since he was first elected in 2017, could have put the imperative in starker terms. So who is the incoming German chancellor making this transformative demand? – The Atlantic

The Americas

Uruguay is set for a political shift to the center-left as Yamandu Orsi took office on Saturday as the country’s next president. – Reuters

Many Jamaicans want their country to ditch King Charles as head of state but a bill presented by the government to do just that has frustrated some critics of the monarchy who believe the change should go further to slash colonial ties. – Reuters

Guyanese President Irfaan Ali said on Saturday that a Venezuelan coast guard patrol entered Guyanese waters earlier in the day, approaching an output vessel in an offshore oil block managed by Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) – Reuters

Brazil’s government is considering cutting import taxes on ethanol in a bid to appease U.S. President Donald Trump and as a way to help tame inflation, newspaper O Globo reported on Friday, citing sources. – Reuters

U.S. aid cuts are having an extreme and immediate impact on thousands of children in Haiti as violence spirals and more young people are recruited by armed gangs, the U.N. children’s agency warned on Friday. – Reuters

Argentine President Javier Milei announced Saturday night that he will seek congressional support for a new program his government is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund, the most concrete sign yet that talks are advancing toward final stages. – Bloomberg

Arturo McFields writes: The U.S. is back and reassuming its leadership in Latin America. This time, it will not hand power over to China, Iran or any other Eastern Hemisphere power. Leadership through strength is fundamental. Like President Ronald Reagan, Trump is not willing to accept blackmail or pressure from any banana republic over key areas such trade, drug trafficking or migration. This administration is not afraid of conflict or controversy — on the contrary, it sees these as a necessary part of the path to change. – The Hill

United States

​​Executives at some of the biggest U.S. consulting firms are meeting with Trump administration officials to defend their projects ahead of this coming week’s deadline for government agencies to justify major consulting contracts. – Wall Street Journal

Republicans for years criticized Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden for using executive orders to advance policies that wouldn’t make it through Congress, arguing that the assertion of unchecked power violated the separation of powers. Now, Trump is leaning into the practice much more than his predecessors did and much more than even he did in his first term, when he issued just 12 executive orders in his first month.- Wall Street Journal

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday fiercely defended President Trump’s sharp turn against Ukraine’s leader, accusing President Volodymyr Zelensky of trying to derail the peace process with Russia by openly challenging Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance in a heated televised exchange from the Oval Office. – New York Times

A U.S. civil rights group on Saturday sued to block the Trump administration from potentially transferring 10 migrants from the U.S. to a naval base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, detailing harsh conditions and suicide attempts among migrants held there. – Reuters

Russia said on Friday it was sending a new ambassador to Washington, the latest sign of a thaw between the two countries as they try to mend their damaged relations and seek an end to the war in Ukraine. – Reuters

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said the prospect of an economic deal with Kyiv is not on the table at the moment after an Oval Office press conference involving President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy went off the rails Friday – Politico

Elon Musk is calling on America to leave the North Atlantic Treaty Organization altogether following President Trump’s public fight with President Zelensky in the Oval Office, which led many of the alliance’s leaders to reaffirm their support for Ukraine. Neither Mr. Trump nor Vice President Vance are attending the European summit of NATO leaders at London this week. – New York Sun

Editorial: As Charles Krauthammer famously said, decline is a choice. Mr. Trump has an obligation to tell Americans what new order he thinks he is building. Then we can have a debate about his intentions and its consequences. Tuesday night would be a good moment to make his ambitions clear. – Wall Street Journal

Eli Lake writes: American presidents have surely dressed down besieged allies behind closed doors; never before has it happened on live television. This break with any prior presidential diplomacy must be seen to be believed. What unfolded between Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance turned into a political Rorschach test. – The Free Press

Defense

Silicon Valley-linked defense companies are seizing on their newfound influence in the Trump administration to address the Pentagon’s shifting focus, pitching their services in fields ranging from autonomous drones to a newly named “Golden Dome” missile-defense shield. – Wall Street Journal

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered U.S. Cyber Command to halt offensive operations against Russia, according to a current official and two former officials briefed on the secret instructions. The move is apparently part of a broader effort to draw President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia into talks on Ukraine and a new relationship with the United States. – New York Times

Jason Healey writes: Policymakers, practitioners, and analysts should accordingly remain open-minded about the revolutionary (or relevant) potential of offensive cyber operations. In cyber, never say something will “never happen.” It is entirely possible that the criticism of the cyber-doubters will remain relevant for decades to come. Prudent risk management, however, requires hedging bets and planning for the worst. – War on the Rocks