Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

When Israel announced that it had killed Hamas’s de facto prime minister, Ismail Barhoum, it was a surprise to many in Gaza, who didn’t even realize he had been given the job. It was only five days earlier that an Israeli airstrike had killed his predecessor. – Wall Street Journal

The United Nations announced on Monday that it would reduce its presence in Gaza by withdrawing about one-third of its international workers there, following repeated strikes of its facilities by Israel. – New York Times

Eighteen months ago, in the aftermath of Hamas’s attack on Israel, Israelis suspended their internal conflicts to form a united military front against a shared external threat. – New York Times

Egypt has floated a new proposal aimed at restoring the Gaza ceasefire deal, security sources told Reuters on Monday, as Palestinian health authorities said Israeli strikes had killed at least 65 people in the enclave in the previous 24 hours. – Reuters

One man was killed and another wounded in a combined ramming, stabbing and shooting attack by a lone assailant at a bus stop in northern Israel on Monday, emergency services said. – Reuters

Israel’s Defence Ministry said on Monday it signed a contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars with Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) unit Sikorsky to integrate Israeli systems into 12 CH-53K Pere helicopters that are currently under construction. – Reuters

The Israeli military said its forces had fired on Monday at a building belonging to the Red Cross in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah as a result of incorrect identification, after an office belonging to the aid organisation was damaged by an explosive projectile. – Reuters

The Israeli army said Tuesday that it had again struck two military bases in central Syria, a day after the European Union’s foreign policy chief warned strikes there and in Lebanon risked escalation. – Agence France-Presse

Politics overshadowed the legal proceedings of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial testimony on Monday when hostage families and the Israel leader’s supporters verbally clashed in the courtroom about his policies regarding negotiations with Hamas and a hostage deal. – Jerusalem Post

Hamas published a video of Israeli hostages Elkana Bohbot and Yosef-Haim Ohana. Bohbot, 35, and Ohana, 24, were both kidnapped from the Nova Music Festival on October 7. – Jerusalem Post

Sirens went off in Sderot and neighboring communities near the Gaza border twice on Monday evening as Israeli air defenses successfully intercepted three rockets fired by Palestinian terrorists from the northern part of the enclave, the military said. – Times of Israel

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said on Monday that Israel had not yet come to a decision on whether it would impose military governance in Gaza. – Times of Israel

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is planning to replace his longtime intelligence chief Majed Faraj, capping off a wider purge of security heads in Ramallah that began several months ago, a Palestinian official, a European diplomat and a Palestinian source familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel

As protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government ramped up in recent days, police began deploying officers from a newly formed National Guard, who have been accused of using excessive force to quell the demonstrations. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Finally, on Monday, he quit – but not from the position he showed off, and then denied manipulating as housing and construction minister; he quit his position in the Prime Minister’s Office. […] Goldknopf must be ousted. He has proven himself to be anti-democratic and anti-Israel, and he must not be permitted to continue in a government position. If Netanyahu were to claim, as he has, that he is the voice of the people, he would remove him immediately. – Jerusalem Post

Yisrael Medad writes: To compound the situation, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog declared, “It is not possible that fighting be renewed without listening to the voices of the families of the abducted.” As some of the families, a minority, are demanding an end to the fighting altogether, in tandem with extreme left-wing groups, Israel’s democracy is truly in a bind. Will the High Court of Justice solve the situation or complicate it? – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

After President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff raised hopes of “real progress” on a Black Sea ceasefire in Monday’s Ukraine peace talks between the United States and Russia, the Kremlin played down expectations for rapid progress, saying numerous questions remained to be resolved. – Washington Post

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he expects a U.S.-Ukraine revenue-sharing agreement on Ukrainian critical minerals will be signed soon. – Reuters

Ukrainian and U.S. delegations are scheduled to meet on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia following Russia-U.S. talks there a day earlier on a limited Black Sea ceasefire proposal that Washington hopes will open the way for broader peace negotiations. – Reuters

Ukraine conducted two drone strikes on the Valuika gas distribution station in the Belgorod region on March 22, damaging equipment there, the Russian Defence Ministry said on Monday. – Reuters

A Russian missile attack hit a densely-populated district of Ukraine’s northeastern city of Sumy, wounding 88 people, including 17 children, on Monday as ceasefire talks, ploughed on, officials said. – Reuters

The people of the frontline Ukrainian city of Kherson have more reason than most to want an end to the three-year-old fight with Russia. But a taste of occupation and relentless attacks since Russian forces were pushed back have made them wary of peace talks. – Reuters

A former Russian deputy defence minister went on trial in Moscow on Monday in the first of a series of cases that signal a drive by President Vladimir Putin to punish corruption in the armed forces. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Monday that a Russian moratorium on striking energy infrastructure in Ukraine remained in place despite reports of continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure targets. – Reuters

Talks between Russia and the United States were challenging but useful and the United Nations and other countries will be involved in additional discussions, a member of the Russian delegation told the TASS news agency. – Reuters

Andreas Kluth writes: Biden understood the value of alliances and international order, and Trump does not. Biden was also bad at explaining foreign threats to Americans, whereas Trump knows how to connect with many voters. And still: Even when delivered in sound bites short and catchy, a policy of abandoning your friends and the ideal of sovereignty while accommodating tyranny and aggression is terrible grand strategy. – Bloomberg

Imran Khalid writes: With Trump now offering him an opening, Putin is seizing the moment, playing the long game, and shaping a narrative that keeps the West divided and Ukraine vulnerable.  As the war drags on, the question remains: will the U.S. recognize Putin’s manipulation for what it is, or will it allow him to continue dictating the terms of engagement? If history is any indication, the Kremlin is betting on the latter — and so far, it has been right. – The Hill

Richard Nephew writes: Moscow’s recent offer to mediate with Iran doubtless comes with an expectation that the United States will reciprocate by easing sanctions related to Ukraine. […] For instance, Moscow could wind up using some of the relief it receives from Ukraine sanctions to help rearm Iran or otherwise support its partner. The Trump administration should therefore regard any such offers with extreme skepticism, placing strong guardrails and conditions on any sanctions relief over Ukraine—and, indeed, on any Russian offers to help with Iran. – Washington Institute 

Zineb Riboua writes: For the West, the stakes are high: engage Turkey seriously or risk creating a geopolitical vacuum that Moscow will eagerly exploit. […] That’s a strategic gift to the Kremlin. Every rift between Ankara and the West opens new opportunities for Russia—whether in energy, defense, or regional influence. Isolating Turkey doesn’t contain a challenge; it amplifies one and erodes NATO’s position while strengthening Russia’s ability to exploit divisions. The issue isn’t whether Turkey is a difficult partner—it always has been. The issue is whether alienating it makes Europe safer. – National Interest

Lebanon

On his first day in office, Lebanon’s new finance minister, Yassine Jaber, sat at his desk reading a color-coded report on the dire state of the ministry’s operations. Nearly everything was marked in alarming red. – New York Times

One person was killed in an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon late Monday, after a wave of intensive air attacks in the region over the weekend, state media reported. – Agence France-Presse

Lebanese leaders have been in intensive contact with Washington and Paris to prevent Israel from bombing Beirut, a Lebanese official said Monday, after heavy Israeli strikes on the country at the weekend. – Agence France-Presse

Lebanese Defense Minister Michel Menassa will visit Syria on Wednesday to discuss recent tensions along the border between the two countries, a Lebanese official said. – Agence France-Presse

Middle East & North Africa

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan about OPEC+ cooperation and Russia-U.S. talks on Ukraine, the Kremlin said on Monday. – Reuters

Morocco will extend its current subsidy programme for soft wheat imports until December 31, state grains agency ONICL said on Monday, indicating the drought-affected country will need to import throughout the year. – Reuters

Tunisia has launched an investigation into alleged money laundering and tax fraud involving ride-hailing applications, the interior ministry said on Monday. – Agence France-Presse

Walter Russell Mead writes: While the Trump administration is pursuing a policy toward the trans-Atlantic alliance that produces upheaval and is challenging China on trade, it wants the Middle East to settle down. Middle East powers seeking Mr. Trump’s friendship should bear this in mind. The countries who offer him the most stability at the lowest cost are the ones most likely to enjoy his support. – Wall Street Journal

Simon Henderson writes: There are no extant pipeline routes from there, so Doha’s assumed but mostly unmentioned approach would be to ship gas to Egypt by tanker, replacing a similar volume of gas that Cairo currently receives from Israel but which would now be heading (very quietly) north to Syria. The sensitivity of this is huge, but the proposal is hardly fanciful. For the moment, however, it is only theoretical because of ongoing Houthi attacks actions along the Red Sea route that Qatar’s tankers would use. In any case, despite Israel’s low oil and gas ranking in the Middle East, its growing position in the East Mediterranean could make it a crucial energy player in the coming months. – Washington Institute

Curtis R. Ryan writes: The Trump administration’s proposals could hobble Jordan economically, socially, and politically, the reverberations of which would be felt through the region, including in Israel. It is not too late, however, for the United States to restore its prior aid commitments and, more important, cease its calls for the wholesale expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. The United States should listen to its ally. Given the decades of close relations between Washington and Amman, Jordan deserves to be heard. – Foreign Affairs

China

President Trump wants to secure the minerals the U.S. needs for everything from smartphones to jet fighters by striking deals in Ukraine, Greenland and even Russia. But even if the Trump administration secures more mines for American companies through agreements like the mineral-rights deal being discussed with Ukraine, it may have to send much of the minerals to China—its main geopolitical rival—to be processed. – Wall Street Journal

Chinese Premier Li Qiang has signed an order to implement new rules for strengthening China’s countermeasures to foreign sanctions, the Chinese government said on Monday. – Reuters

Chinese authorities have released all employees of a U.S. corporate due diligence firm detained in Beijing two years ago in an apparent move to reassure foreign firms operating in China amid sliding foreign investment in the world’s No.2 economy. – Reuters

China has not received any application for asylum from Philippines’ former President Rodrigo Duterte and his family, a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday. – Reuters

China is willing to work with Portugal to build a more stable, fruitful and dynamic relationship, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi told his Portuguese counterpart in Beijing on Tuesday. – Reuters

Michael B. G. Froman writes: Whether or not the United States can compete with China on China’s playing field, it is important to recognize a fundamental truth: the United States is now operating largely in accordance with Beijing’s standards, with a new economic model characterized by protectionism, constraints on foreign investment, subsidies, and industrial policy—essentially nationalist state capitalism. In the war over who gets to define the rules of the road, the battle is over, at least for now. And China won. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

Before the election, Toyota Motor and other Japanese automakers thought a second Trump administration could be good for them. – New York Times

The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), monitoring a Chinese navy warship as it circumnavigated Australia last month, heard it warn it would use live fire in its exercises on a civilian radio broadcast, defence pilots said on Tuesday. – Reuters

U.S. allies Japan and South Korea would struggle to quickly ramp up shipbuilding to meet U.S. demand for alternatives under President Donald Trump’s plan to impose port fees on China-linked ships, a top Japanese shipping executive said on Monday. – Reuters

Australia’s government will dole out billions in cost of living relief measures in its budget on Tuesday to win back disgruntled voters ahead of a tough election in May, tipping the fiscal ledger back into the red after two years of rare surpluses. – Reuters

A strong 6.7 magnitude earthquake struck off New Zealand’s South Island on Tuesday, authorities said, as the country’s disaster agency assessed if there were any tsunami threats. – Reuters

Thailand’s opposition on Monday grilled Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on the first day of a parliamentary no-confidence motion, accusing her of being unqualified and of allowing her powerful father to wield influence over her administration. – Reuters

New sovereign fund Danantara Indonesia unveiled on Monday what it called a “dream team” to chart its strategy, including ex-presidents as well as advisory roles for hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, economist Jeffrey Sachs and former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra. – Reuters

The Philippine defense chief on Monday called China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea “the biggest fiction and lie” that no Southeast Asian country would accept and said that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aggressive policies have undermined international goodwill fostered by his predecessors. – Associated Press

Africa

South Sudan and Chad have condemned threats made by a top Sudanese general, warning of the risk of regional escalation. – Reuters

Kenya has applied for a new lending programme from the International Monetary Fund that will factor in unused money from the current programme which both sides walked away from last week, Finance Minister John Mbadi said on Monday. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Monday that talks on a new programme for Senegal could not go ahead until the government addressed the misreporting of key economic data under the previous government. – Reuters

The leader of the rebels who captured two key cities in eastern Congo tells The Associated Press that international sanctions and Congo’s proposed minerals deal with the United States in search of peace will not stop the fighting. – Associated Press

Angola is terminating its mediation efforts for the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo to allow President Joao Lourenco to focus on his new role as chairman of the African Union. – Bloomberg

Mozambican President Daniel Chapo met the nation’s most prominent opposition leader for the first time since a disputed October election that sparked unprecedented unrest in the southeast African nation. – Bloomberg

North America

New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday he was available for a call with U.S. President Donald Trump but would do so “on our terms as a sovereign country”. – Reuters

China has never been interested in interfering in Canada’s internal affairs, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday, when asked about Canada saying China and India are likely to interfere in the Canadian general election. – Reuters

Michael Taube writes: Mr. Poilievre says he is a “strong leader” and a “tough guy to deal with” and that Canada needs to be “respectful and firm” in dealing with Mr. Trump. Will this help turn the Canadian election back in Mr. Poilievre’s favor? Will Mr. Carney lead the Liberals to a fourth consecutive mandate, thanks to an unexpected assist from the U.S. President? We’ll know soon enough. – Wall Street Journal

Debakant Jena writes: Trudeau hoped to be remembered as a transformational leader. Instead, he will be remembered as a cautionary tale — a leader who sought applause but lost trust, who promised progress but left disillusionment. Trudeau’s legacy is not what he imagined. It is what he earned — and the world must learn from it. – The Hill

Cybersecurity

Three Democratic senators on Monday urged the White House to seek authority from Congress to extend a deadline for China’s ByteDance to sell TikTok to safeguard the popular video sharing app from a potential ban. – Reuters

China and the United States need to cooperate in artificial intelligence, and duplication of efforts in the area could be avoided, the president of the National Committee on United States-China Relations (NCUSCR) said. – Reuters

An Asian telecommunications company was allegedly breached by Chinese government hackers who spent four years inside its systems, the incident response firm Sygnia said Monday. – The Record

Personal information from Union County, Pennsylvania, residents was stolen during a ransomware attack on government systems 10 days ago. – The Record

Law enforcement agencies in seven African countries arrested over 300 suspected cybercriminals involved in mobile banking, investment and messaging app scams, according to a statement on Monday by Interpol. – The Record

Editorial: Certainly, the AI industry needs room to grow. But creative industries need it, too. In sorting out what’s fair, courts will continue to have to consider the conundrum addressed in the Thomson Reuters case. The goal of copyright is to promote progress. Sometimes AI can do that, and other times it gets in the way. – Washington Post