Fdd's overnight brief

Russia

NATO estimated Russia has lost as much as one-fifth of its combat forces sent to Ukraine in about a month of fighting as President Biden and alliance leaders gathered in Brussels for a summit to discuss providing further support to Kyiv to repel the Russian invasion. – Wall Street Journal 

Repeated attempts by the United States’ top defense and military leaders to speak with their Russian counterparts have been rejected by Moscow for the last month, leaving the world’s two largest nuclear powers in the dark about explanations for military movements and raising fears of a major miscalculation or battlefield accident. – Washington Post 

The FBI is trying a novel strategy to recruit Russian-speaking individuals upset about the country’s invasion of Ukraine: aiming social media ads at cellphones located inside or just outside the Russian Embassy in Washington. – Washington Post 

Even as Western sanctions start to hit the Russian economy, the nation’s oil and gas exports are softening the blow, helping blunt the ruble’s fall and giving the Kremlin continued resources to wage its war in Ukraine. – Washington Post 

Russia will seek payment in roubles for gas sold to “unfriendly” countries, President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday, and European gas prices soared on concerns the move would exacerbate the region’s energy crunch. – Reuters 

Russia is reopening its stock market for limited trading nearly one month after shares plunged and the exchange was shut down following the invasion of Ukraine. – Associated Press  

Anatoly Chubais has stepped down from his role as an international envoy for President Vladimir Putin, the most senior official to resign since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – BBC 

A Russian official accused the United States of inciting “Russophobia” after the State Department declared President Vladimir Putin’s actions as war crimes. – Newsweek 

A Russian-controlled port in southern Ukraine, the capture of which was heralded as a “milestone event” in the war by Vladimir Putin’s military, is now burning, and a tank-landing ship docked at the port has been sunk, according to the Ukrainian Navy. – Washington Examiner 

Ukraine is ratcheting up the pressure against Russian forces near Kyiv, putting its troops in a position to possibly encircle Vladimir Putin’s soldiers in the outskirts of the capital city, the British Defense Ministry said on Wednesday. – Washington Examiner 

The Russian military’s first month of war in Ukraine is coming to a close, and it couldn’t have gone much worse from the Kremlin’s perspective. – Washington Examiner  

A close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday accused the U.S. of seeking “the end of our motherland” and said escalating tensions could result in a nuclear disaster. – The Hill  

The Russian military has reportedly destroyed a laboratory near the decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power plant that was working to improve the management of nuclear waste and contained “highly active samples.” – The Hill 

Editorial: Our fear is that Mr. Biden, and perhaps other NATO leaders, will lean on Mr. Zelensky to agree to let Ukraine become one more “frozen conflict” like Georgia. Russia would be able to keep the Ukrainian territory it occupies in return for no more bombing. Mr. Putin would be able to consolidate control over those areas and rearm to threaten Ukraine again in the future. The NATO leaders could put that fear to rest if they said publicly that sanctions against Russia won’t be lifted until its troops leave Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal  

Mark Kimmitt writes: The inescapable conclusion is that these attacks on civilians are deliberate. Mr. Putin is primarily to blame, but so are the generals he counts on to plan, order and carry out the operations. They also bear responsibility for the enormous loss in lives and destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine. The time will come to punish them. The time to subject them to sanctions is now. – Wall Street Journal 

Douglas London writes: Mr. Putin will use intimidation, violence, repression and bribery to combat counterintelligence risk and will reward blind loyalty from the incompetent and opportunistic sycophants who lord over his system. But these measures will only create incentives for the brave to act—and it takes only a few to make an extraordinary difference. – Wall Street Journal 

David Cameron writes: What does or doesn’t happen at the G-20 won’t change the world. But it could be an important signal. Our leaders need to show that we are on a war footing. At times like this, a prime minister or president needs to reach into the machine and make sure that everything that can be done is being done. – Wall Street Journal 

Hal Brands writes: Even in the best-case scenario, the U.S. would confront enormous challenges helping a liberalizing Russia emerge from authoritarian rule. More plausibly, Washington could face a recalcitrant, perhaps even a further radicalized, Russia instead. The war in Ukraine will eventually end, but America’s problems with Russia may only be getting started. – Bloomberg 

Milton Bearden writes: If Putin is to be taken out of the game before he escalates to the unthinkable, it will most certainly take his own military or intelligence people to accomplish the task. As the war in Ukraine drags on day by day and the international media reports on Russian atrocities and civilian casualties, the world continues to turn on Moscow. – Foreign Affairs 

Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko write: Russian mobilization efforts are likely becoming urgent given Russian losses in the war. […]The protracting pause of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine and increasing anecdotal reporting of breakdowns in the morale and capability of Russian combat units all accord with these assessments. These reports and assessments collectively suggest that Russia may not be able to find new combat power with which to regain offensive momentum for weeks or even months. Russian forces are increasingly preparing for protracted defensive operations in various parts of the theater. – Institute for the Study of War  

Michael Rubin writes: If Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, expect other countries to do so within a decade. Iran already has precision missiles, enriched uranium, and it has experimented with warhead design. A Russian strike on Ukraine might be a green light for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to move on Yanbu, Tel Aviv, or the Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain. Should they do so, perhaps the new stigma would be proportionality: The international community might demand Israel or the United States respond with the same yields or below. Such constraints on yield, however, would erode slowly with each use. – 19fortyfive 

Afghanistan

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Kabul on Thursday to meet his Afghan counterpart, a spokesman for Afghanistan’s foreign ministry said, the highest-level visit by a Chinese official since the Taliban took power last year. – Reuters 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken slammed the Taliban for ditching its commitment to reopen high schools to girls at the last minute, posing the latest setback for a regime struggling to build a footing in the international community. – Bloomberg 

Editorial: Unfortunately, the Taliban’s broken promise suggests that the Biden administration is right to be skeptical of the de facto Kabul regime’s intentions. Unless reversed immediately, the decision to deny girls secondary education will confirm that those who rule Afghanistan place a higher value on ideological purity than human needs — or human rights. – Washington Post 

Krish O’Mara Vignarajah writes: Congress must move quickly to pass legislation that provides lasting safety and stability for our Afghan allies. Anything less would represent a mission unfinished and a promise unfulfilled. – Washington Post 

Israel

A United Nations special rapporteur has accused Israel of committing the crime of apartheid in the occupied territories, joining a growing group of international, Israeli and Palestinian rights watchdogs that have sought to recast the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a struggle for equal rights instead of a territorial dispute. – New York Times 

The Israeli government rejected requests from Ukraine and Estonia in recent years to purchase and use Pegasus — the powerful spyware tool — to hack Russian mobile phone numbers, according to people with knowledge of the discussions. – New York Times 

Israel is encouraging the Biden administration to approve a major arms deal with Egypt for the sale of F-15 fighter jets, two senior Israeli defense officials told Axios. – Axios 

The US State Department has offered a grant of up to $987,654 for projects that include reporting human rights violations by Israel, raising concern about the potential for abuse by organizations seeking boycotts, sanctions and international law tribunals against Israel. – Jerusalem Post 

The terrorist who killed four people in Beersheba was under Shin Bet surveillance at the time of this week’s stabbing and car-ramming attack, Israeli television reported Wednesday. – Times of Israel 

Korean Peninsula

North Korea fired a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile Thursday, Japanese and South Korean officials said, which traveled a distance indicating it could reach the U.S. mainland in Pyongyang’s most powerful test since 2017. – Washington Post 

Sue Mi Terry writes: Although the West should remain resolute in the face of North Korean provocations, Seoul and Washington should not be afraid to talk with Pyongyang. If the North does decide to return to negotiations, the United States should test the waters to see if it would be possible to conclude an interim deal that would freeze the North Korean nuclear program in a verifiable manner in return for partial sanctions relief from the United States. – Foreign Affairs 

Josephine Wolff writes: Overall, North Korea’s cyber operations have been splashy and high-profile, but not especially sophisticated, targeted, or profitable, pointing to how limiting the country’s resources are even in the cyber domain. – The National Interest 

South Asia

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi drew a rebuke from the Indian government ahead of his expected but unconfirmed visit to New Delhi on Friday, upsetting his hosts with remarks made in Pakistan this week concerning the disputed Kashmir region. – Reuters 

Sri Lankan lawmakers on Tuesday approved reforms to a harsh anti-terror law that rights groups have long criticized, as the country looks to shore up its trade relations with the European Union amid its worst economic crisis in memory. – Associated Press 

When 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a recent border clash with China, the military hardware New Delhi sent to bolster its Himalayan frontier was mostly Russian-origin, showing not for the first time its closeness to “longstanding and time-tested friend” Moscow. – Agence France-Presse  

Europe

U.S. intelligence agencies see concrete evidence of war crimes by Russian troops in Ukraine, the Biden administration said Wednesday, as President Biden arrived in Europe to rally NATO support for ramping up economic and military pressure against Moscow. – Washington Post 

As President Biden landed in Brussels on Wednesday for urgent talks about Russia’s war on Ukraine, splits were emerging within NATO and in Washington about how to deter the Kremlin from further escalation. Allied leaders are discussing whether it is best to keep Russia guessing about what will trigger a bigger military response or to outline precisely what would draw NATO into a conflict. – Washington Post 

President Biden and European leaders are expected to announce a major initiative to direct shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe during his visit to Brussels this week, part of a broader effort to help reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, according to three U.S. officials familiar with the plan. – Washington Post 

As the conflict in Ukraine ticks on, hospitals and health care continue to be in the firing line — with potentially devastating consequences. The World Health Organization has verified 64 attacks on health-care facilities, personnel and patients since Russia invaded a month ago, with 15 deaths and 37 injuries as a result. – Washington Post 

Russian shelling and siege tactics have devastated Mariupol’s residential neighborhoods, drone video published Wednesday by Ukraine’s far-right Azov Battalion revealed. The video was verified by The Washington Post. – Washington Post 

At first glance, the Ukrainian government’s report that its forces had pushed Russians out of this town seemed true: Armed Ukrainian soldiers stood guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to this rural enclave west of Kyiv, seemingly in full control. – Washington Post 

Day and night, truck convoys rumble through once quiet Polish border towns and villages. Giant military transport planes land several times an hour on the single runway at a local airport. Their cargo: weapons for the Ukrainian forces fighting to beat back Russia’s invading army. – Wall Street Journal 

Britain’s Boris Johnson intends to use a meeting of G7 and NATO leaders on Thursday to work with partners to “substantively increase defensive lethal aid to Ukraine”, the prime minister’s office said following a call with the Ukrainian president. – Reuters 

NATO members plan to approve additional support for Ukraine in that country’s defense against Russia’s invasion, including equipment to counter a potential chemical or biological attack. – Defense News 

President Joe Biden will meet with dozens of allied heads of state and governments Thursday to discuss new measures to punish Russia for its grinding war in Ukraine, testing his ability to persuade sanction-weary countries to support penalties on Moscow that could ricochet back on their own economies. – Washington Examiner 

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg expects that leaders will agree to increase their force presence on the eastern flank. – Washington Examiner 

Daniel Henninger writes: The harder question is: Where will old Europe be in the next four weeks, as Mr. Putin launches cruise missiles from Russian territory or the Black Sea into apartment buildings, schools and hospitals across Ukraine? The increasingly clear answer is that Mr. Biden and Europe will stay on the short side of what Ukraine needs militarily to force Mr. Putin into a cease-fire and negotiation. Worse, to get it over, they may pressure Mr. Zelensky into a premature de facto surrender. – Wall Street Journal 

Ethan Brown writes: Outsourcing warfare, contracting stateless entities whose loyalties are terminal through payment rendered, asking for ‘volunteers’ who do not understand the world they are being recruited into, delegitimizes the gambit for sovereignty Ukraine is currently engaged in. – The Hill 

Liza M. Theriault writes: The tragedy of Syria’s experience with displaced persons, especially those trapped in camps, should be a lesson for the Ukrainian humanitarian crisis. As refugees begin to relocate across the continent, steps should be taken to ensure that the women and children fleeing from Ukraine are not targeted for radicalization. – Washington Institute 

Tom McTague writes: The reality is that the West functions as an American-led alliance, but it is not clear that Europe entirely agrees on America’s principal strategic threats. Whether Trump returns to the White House or Biden is the one who returns to some future NATO summit, there will come a point when Europe and the U.S. must decide whether and how to renew their alliance for the next challenge—be that Russia, or China, or something else entirely – The Atlantic 

The Americas

Nicaragua’s ambassador to the Organization of American States denounced his own country as a dictatorship Wednesday in a dramatic and unprecedented speech during an online conference at the Washington, D.C.-based hemispheric organization. He then apparently quit his post. – Wall Street Journal 

Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard and his Saudi Arabian counterpart on Wednesday agreed to strengthen bilateral economic relations on the first day of the diplomat’s 10-day tour of the Middle East and India, Mexico’s government said. – Reuters 

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness told Prince William and Kate on Wednesday that the British commonwealth intends to become fully independent in an unexpected announcement that comes as other countries consider cutting ties with the monarchy. – Associated Press 

Cybersecurity

As Russian troops massed on the border on January 14, dozens of Ukrainian government websites were defaced with the words “be afraid and wait for the worst”. The co-ordinated hack was viewed by Ukrainian and western cyber security officials as an initial warning that Russia would wage a fearsome digital war alongside a ground invasion of the country. – Financial Times 

A senior State Department official has told Newsweek that the United States is calling on the world to reject an appeal by Russia’s top cyber diplomat to engage in efforts to establish a global treaty to avoid an all-out war in the digital realm. – Newsweek 

A Russian national accused of running a cybercrime forum that sold stolen credentials and sensitive information faces up to 20 years in federal prison, the Department of Justice announced Tuesday evening. – The Record 

FBI Director Christopher Wray on Tuesday warned the private sector to prepare for potential cyberattacks, saying U.S. agents were “particularly focused on the destructive cyber threat” from Russian agents. – The Hill 

Nearly 50 million people in the U.S. had their sensitive health data breached in 2021, a threefold increase in three years, according to a POLITICO analysis of the latest HHS data. – Politico 

Zhanna Malekos Smith writes: Overall, the fact that countries use cyber power to tip the geopolitical scales is unsurprising, for as James A. Lewis, director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, writes, the “internet undergirds this global connectivity, and cyberspace has become a focal point for contest.” Bearing that in mind, understanding the ecosystem of this “focal point for contest” is essential for offensive and defensive cyber operations planning—because no state is an island in cyberspace. – Center for Strategic and International Studies