Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Residents in Southern Israel are shaken after direct strikes by Iranian missiles Trump's peace board hands Hamas disarmament proposal, sources say Iran brings Europe into range with missiles fired at Diego Garcia Where is Mojtaba Khamenei? Iran fills the gap with AI and voice-overs Iran says coastal attack will lead to full Gulf closure and mine-laying Iran’s government seen as tightening grip despite strikes Putin tells Tehran: Russia stands by Iran Ukraine deploys units to five Middle East countries to intercept drones How Iran's IRGC rebooted Lebanon's Hezbollah to be ready for war WSJ Editorial: Iran attacks the Gulf Arabs. Will they fight back? Iran’s Houthi allies lie in wait on another key oil route: the Red Sea Cuba refuses to negotiate president's term in talks with United StatesIn The News
Israel
Shards of glass and charred debris littered the streets of Arad and Dimona on Sunday morning, hours after missiles from Iran struck residential neighborhoods in these small desert cities in southern Israel. – New York Times
Donald Trump’s Board of Peace has presented Hamas with a written proposal on how it could lay down its weapons, two sources said, a step the Palestinian militants have thus far refused to take as the U.S. president pushes on with his plan for Gaza’s future. – Reuters
Israeli officials said on Saturday that Iranian forces had for the first time fired long‑range missiles, expanding the risk of attacks beyond the Middle East, even as an Iranian strike injured dozens of people not far from Israel’s nuclear site. – Reuters
United Nations Secretary General António Guterres is defending the U.N.’s role as the world’s multilateral organization for responding in times of crisis, but acknowledges he is cooperating “actively” with President Donald Trump’s rival Board of Peace in Gaza — even though Guterres brands the board “a personal project” of the U.S. president. – Politico
The United States is reportedly planning a weeks-long operation to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an Israeli report claimed Sunday, as Israeli and American officials continued to tout the potential fall of the Islamic Republic’s regime as a result of the escalating attacks. – Agence France-Presse
Diplomats from 13 European countries and Canada on Saturday slammed growing “terror” by settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank, after a surge in deadly attacks. – Agence France-Presse
Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, the Mossad, called on Saturday for Iranians with access to information on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear industry to contact it. – Jerusalem Post
A cluster munition hit in the Drom Hasharon Regional Council on Sunday night following an Iranian missile barrage across central Israel, a council spokesperson announced. – Jerusalem Post
Five people were lightly hurt Saturday when a Hezbollah rocket struck a home in the northern town of Ma’alot-Tarshiha, medics said. Magen David Adom said the five were hit by shrapnel following the rocket impact. – Times of Israel
The Israeli Air Force recently struck an Iranian nuclear weapons research and development site in Tehran, the military announced on Saturday, as Israel and the United States continued their operations to eliminate the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. According to the IDF, the “strategic” site at Malek Ashtar University was used by Iran’s military industries to develop components for nuclear weapons. – Times of Israel
The police and Shin Bet announced on Friday that an IDF reservist serving in the Iron Dome air defense system was recently arrested and indicted on charges of spying for Iran. – Times of Israel
Chuck Freilich writes: That is a red line. You do not have the (moral) right to support an organization that espouses the positions outlined above, or calls for a cut-off of weapons to Israel during the Gaza war, the very same weapons that are now defending it. If you care deeply about Israel and want to have a positive impact on its national course, wonderful. Make aliyah, join any of the numerous Jewish organizations that reflect every shade of American political thought and provide support to their like-minded brethren in Israel, support AIPAC. It may not be perfect, but it is the only pro-Israel lobby. – Haaretz
Seth Mandel writes: You can see the progression here of attempts by narrative-setters to degrade Israel’s credibility. First it was that Israel is joining Trump’s war, and Trump’s war doesn’t poll all that well. Then it was “Israel is responsible for this war.” […] That has been the case since October 7, 2023. Israel has been forced to choose between survival and shallow, fleeting popularity with the president’s critics. Israel is not going to “fix” its unpopularity by committing suicide, and this type of concern trolling is ineffective against people fighting for their survival. – Commentary Magazine
Iran
Lindsay Foreman was hunched over the landline in Ward 7 of Tehran’s Evin prison, telling her son Joe that the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign had started. Warplanes had been circling above the Iranian capital all morning and the rumble of explosions had sent prisoners scurrying beneath their metal-framed bunks. – Wall Street Journal
Some are fleeing the bombing, others leaving to wait out the war with relatives abroad. Iranians are stumbling to safety in Turkey at this border crossing in a snowy mountain pass that in recent weeks has become one of their few lifelines to the outside world. – Wall Street Journal
When Iranian missile crews rolled two of their largest weapons out of hiding and launched them at the U.S.-U.K. Diego Garcia military base 2,500 miles away, they revealed the Islamic Republic had longer-range missiles than many analysts had realized—and a leadership that was no longer interested in hiding them. – Wall Street Journal
The geography of the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping lanes are just 2 miles wide, gives Iran unique power over the global economy. But its history shows the current battle for the strait is just the latest iteration of a centuries-old fight to control the critical trade entrepôt. – Wall Street Journal
In his first, fiery address to the Iranian nation on March 12, new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to “avenge the blood of our martyrs” and to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. That message of defiance wasn’t delivered by Khamenei himself: It was read out on state television by a female news anchor. – Wall Street Journal
As the war in Iran enters its fourth week, with U.S. operations increasingly focused on global energy flows, Tehran is rebuffing efforts to identify a diplomatic off-ramp from the war launched by the United States and Israel, according to officials in the region. – Washington Post
As the cost of oil continues to soar, the Treasury Department on Friday lifted sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian crude already loaded onto vessels, which the Trump administration says will help ease prices — but which is also likely to provide revenue for Iran’s war effort. – Washington Post
Nowruz, the Persian New Year, is a time of renewal and family celebration. But for many Iranians, that joy will be out of reach this year. The war in Iran has curtailed travel, and an internet blackout has compounded the separation, preventing families from connecting. – New York Times
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas held a phone call with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on Sunday, an EU official told Reuters. – Reuters
Iran will retaliate to an attack on its electricity sector by targeting Israel’s power plants as well as power plants supplying U.S. bases with electricity in regional countries, a statement by the Revolutionary Guards on Monday said. – Reuters
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Saturday that there needs to be an “immediate cessation” of what he described as U.S.-Israeli aggression to end the war and wider regional conflict, Iran’s embassy in India said in an X post on Saturday. – Reuters
An attack on Iran’s southern coast and islands will lead to Gulf routes being cut with the laying of sea mines, the country’s Defence Council said on Monday according to state media. – Reuters
The Strait of Hormuz remains open to all shipping except vessels linked to “Iran’s enemies”, Iranian media reports published on Sunday quoted Iran’s representative to the U.N. maritime agency as saying. – Reuters
The family of a British couple detained in Iran said on Friday the pair were being used as “human shields” during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and they accused Britain’s government of failing to make progress on their release. – Reuters
Reza Soleimani, a former Iranian water polo player, said he was devastated after learning that 19-year-old wrestler Saleh Mohammadi had been executed for his alleged role in anti-government protests in Iran. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that there are no leaders left in Iran to talk to about the war, with military strikes continuing to target Iranian officials. – Reuters
The U.S. and Israel launched an attack on the Natanz uranium-enrichment facility on Saturday morning, Iran’s Tasnim news agency said. – Reuters
The Iranian regime isn’t close to falling and officials are coalescing around the remaining leaders, according to western intelligence assessments and people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
For decades, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and ruling clerical elite have relied on a system critics say is as strategic as it is cynical: Denounce the West in public, while quietly securing a future there for their own families. – Fox News
Tehran is rolling out a new 10mn rial banknote, its highest-ever denomination, as authorities seek to manage spiralling inflation and meet demand for hard cash during the US-Israel war. – Financial Times
Iran has increased its targeting of civilian sites across the Middle East out of “desperation,” US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Admiral Brad Cooper told London-based anti-regime outlet Iran International on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post
Senior US officials have informed their counterparts in Israel and other nations in recent days that it appears there may be no alternative but for the United States to launch a ground military operation to seize the Iranian island of Kharg, two sources familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post
Nikita Shah writes: For the United States and Israel, cyber operations enable military and intelligence activity to degrade Iran’s infrastructure. For Iran, cyber capabilities will offer a critical means of projecting power and raising the cost to countries participating in this conflict, as it seeks to survive. […] In the meantime, it is important to avoid confusing the volume of cyber activity in this conflict with offering a decisive military edge, not least given the constraints that Iran’s regime currently faces. Mistaking the “noise” for impact risks, making the Iranian cyber threat appear more credible than it currently is. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Brynn Tannehill writes: Conversely, if the United States managed to take and hold onto Kharg, the Iranian regime could find itself without the means to export its oil and unable to survive. Iran would then be forced to give the United States some—even much—of what it wants in exchange for control of the island. That’s one way for Trump to get the off-ramp he desires. But his administration has never tried anything like this. An operation that involves taking land inside an adversary’s territory and then holding it until the cessation of hostilities involves a whole new world of risk—and an escalation to which Iran is sure to respond. – The Atlantic
Charbel A. Antoun writes: Three weeks after Khamenei’s assassination and now Larijani’s confirmed killing, the Islamic Republic still exists on paper—its constitution intact, its slogans unchanged. But the machinery that once enforced those slogans is under unprecedented strain. The targeted strikes have exposed how dependent the system was on a handful of pivotal figures. With them gone, ideology alone cannot keep the system upright. Whether the next phase brings negotiated concessions, an IRGC power grab, or deeper fragmentation, the direction is unmistakable: Iran is no longer projecting power. It is fighting to survive. – The National Interest
Natiq Malikzada writes: Mojtaba inherits a state that is more militarized, more brittle, more penetrated by foreign intelligence, and distrusted by the vast majority of Iranian society than at any point in its history. If he understands this, he may try to rule not as a copy of Ali Khamenei, but as a colder, more disciplined manager of factional balance and repression. That would not make him less authoritarian, but it would make him a different kind of authoritarian. Ultimately, much remains in doubt about Iran’s future. But it appears clear that the chances of internal reform under the second Khamenei are laughable. In all likelihood, his regime will grow more insular, more suspicious, and more hostile to the outside world than ever before—if it survives the weeks and months ahead. – The National Interest
Russia and Ukraine
When Elon Musk flipped the off switch on Russian forces’ Starlink internet connections in February, Ukraine’s military went on the offensive. Russian commanders had lost access to live video of the battlefield and communications with troops. Ukrainian soldiers moved in on Russian positions with little threat from drones—normally an omnipresent danger. – Wall Street Journal
Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Iranian leaders on Nowruz and said Moscow remained a loyal friend and reliable partner to Tehran, the Kremlin said on Saturday. – Reuters
Ukraine has deployed specialist teams to five Middle Eastern countries to help intercept drones and advise on air-defence measures, with officials saying they expect to conclude several significant agreements. – Reuters
Ukrainian and U.S. delegations concluded a second day of talks in Florida on finding ways to end the four-year war with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday. – Reuters
Ukraine is still expecting the first tranche of a 90-billion euro ($103.89 billion) loan from the European Union next month, despite a failure to break Hungary’s veto of the funding at a summit this week, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday. – Reuters
Russia launched a Soyuz rocket from a repaired launch pad at its Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on Sunday, restoring its capability to fly to the International Space Station for the first time since the launch pad was damaged last year. – Reuters
A fuel reservoir in Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, Russia’s largest western oil exporting hub, caught fire after a drone attack, Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of northwestern Leningrad region, said on Telegram messaging app on Monday. – Reuters
Ukraine’s military said it attacked Rosneft PJSC’s Saratov oil refinery in southwestern Russia while regional authorities elsewhere said they repelled drones near crude processing facilities. – Bloomberg
Replying to a friend’s message, ordering a pizza or hailing a ride on your handheld device may seem like simple tasks in a fully wired 21st-century city like Moscow. But residents of the Russian capital are finding that their smartphones have been dumbed down amid an unprecedented shutdown of the mobile internet. – CNN
Russian forces have begun a spring offensive in eastern Ukraine, including the use of dozens of tanks and armored vehicles, according to the Ukrainian military and analysts. – CNN
Irwin Redlener writes: Here is a better idea: If Europe — together with the United States — provides Ukraine the defensive capabilities it needs to deny further territorial gains, Putin may yet be disabused of the notion that he is entitled to any Ukrainian territory at all. That would be an important lesson — not only for Moscow, but for any future geopolitical bully with an aggressive eye on a neighbor’s sovereignty. Peace built on concession to conquest is rarely durable. Peace built on deterrence and principle stands a far better chance of lasting. – The Hill
Hezbollah
The Litani River, a 90-mile waterway that cuts across southern Lebanon, has again become a focal point of the latest war between Israel and Hezbollah, the second in two years. – New York Times
Israel carried out strikes across Lebanon on Saturday, targeting the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, amid deadly ground clashes close to the country’s southern border. – New York Times
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) rebuilt Hezbollah’s military command after it was mauled by Israel in 2024, plugging gaps with Iranian officers before restructuring the Lebanese group and laying plans for the war it is now waging in support of Tehran, two people familiar with these IRGC activities said. – Reuters
Iraq
NATO has withdrawn all of its troops from an advisory mission in Iraq, the military alliance said on Friday, as the repercussions of the Iran war spread across the Middle East. – Reuters
Iranian gas supplies to Iraq have resumed at a rate of five million cubic metres per day, the Iraqi electricity ministry said on Saturday, according to the state news agency. – Reuters
An officer was killed after a drone launched by “outlaw groups” struck near the Iraqi intelligence headquarters in Baghdad on Saturday, the National Intelligence Service said in a statement. – Reuters
Lebanon
Thousands displaced by Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s capital now shelter along the promenade hugging the Mediterranean Sea. They share it with joggers, cyclists and dog walkers, alongside dizzying displays of wealth. – New York Times
The Israeli defense minister said Sunday that he had ordered the military to step up its destruction of bridges and houses in southern Lebanon, bolstering fears over Israel’s efforts to expand and entrench a military-controlled buffer zone in the area. – New York Times
Lebanon President Joseph Aoun said that the IDF’s strikes against the Litani River’s bridge were a “dangerous escalation” and warned that the attacks would be “considered a prelude to a ground invasion that Lebanon has long warned against.” – Jerusalem Post
Gulf States
Minutes before an Iranian drone smashed into a fuel tank, sending a fiery explosion into the skies above Dubai International Airport, the wheels of an Emirates passenger plane en route to Beijing had just lifted from the runway. – Wall Street Journal
Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser has cancelled his planned appearance at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston to remain in Saudi Arabia because of the Iran conflict, an industry source told Reuters. – Reuters
Seven people have been killed in a helicopter crash in Qatar’s territorial waters, Qatar and Turkey said on Sunday. – Reuters
An unknown projectile struck a vessel 15 nautical miles north of the United Arab Emirates’ Sharjah, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said early on Sunday. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia informed Iran’s military attache, his assistant and three members of the embassy staff that they must leave the kingdom within 24 hours after being declared persona non grata, the Saudi foreign ministry said on Saturday, citing what it described as continued Iranian attacks on Saudi territory. – Reuters
UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan (AbZ) stated that the Emirates will “never be blackmailed by terrorists,” in a post on his personal X/Twitter on Sunday night. – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: This could increase the rate of strikes on Iran—for a war in which every day counts—and send a true deterrent message. It would also tell Tehran, and the IRGC that uses the Iranian state as a piggy bank, that there can be no return to business as usual so long as this regime reigns and refuses to change. No one is asking the Gulf states to be Israel. All the U.S. needs is for the Gulf Arabs to stand up for themselves. If Mr. Trump can show them that he will see the war through, they can stop hedging their bets. – Wall Street Journal
Aaron Magid writes: A Jordanian attack on Iran would also increase the odds of more aggressive Iranian strikes against the Hashemite Kingdom, a scenario that King Abdullah seeks to avoid. During conversations with foreign leaders about the Iran War, the Hashemite ruler has called for restraint and “utilizing dialogue to resolve crises.” King Abdullah has also opposed attempts to “drag Arab states into a conflict in which they are not involved.” Jordan sees little benefit in joining Netanyahu’s war, as Amman seeks a diplomatic solution to the Iran crisis rather than additional regional chaos. – The National Interest
Middle East & North Africa
The U.S. and its partners in the Middle East are keeping a close eye on the Yemeni militant group which—armed and funded by Iran—crippled shipping through the Red Sea for much of two years. The Houthis have recently stepped up threatening rhetoric that has caught officials’ attention. – Wall Street Journal
Libya’s National Oil Corporation said on Saturday that it had contracted a specialist company to handle a damaged Russian tanker carrying LNG that is drifting towards the Libyan coast. – Reuters
Egypt will settle $1.3 billion in arrears to international oil companies by June, the petroleum ministry said on Saturday, accelerating its previous timetable for repayments. – Reuters
Italy is in talks with Algeria to buy more natural gas from the North African nation with the Iran war squeezing energy shipments, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
Korean Peninsula
Just weeks ago, the U.S. had stationed in South Korea a full inventory of an American missile-defense system able to guard against a North Korean strike. – Wall Street Journal
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was reappointed as president of state affairs, state media KCNA reported on Monday, after the isolated nation convened the first session of its Supreme People’s Assembly a day earlier. – Reuters
Fourteen people died and 25 were seriously injured in a fire at a car parts factory in the South Korean city of Daejeon, fire authorities said on Saturday. – Reuters
South Korea’s parliament passed a sweeping legal reform bill on Friday that will strip prosecutors of investigative powers, a move that the government argues will curb the risk of political abuse of one of the country’s most powerful state bodies. – Reuters
Sunha Bae writes: In particular, given China’s role as a key transit environment for North Korean cyber activities—including the movement, laundering, and cash-out of illicitly obtained funds—cooperation with China remains indispensable for effectively addressing these threats. Ultimately, South Korea should evolve into an active and meaningful contributor to international cyber response efforts. By expanding international cooperation along these lines, South Korea can enhance its ability to counter overseas cyber threats. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
China
Chinese authorities are ramping up pressure on lawyers defending a group of jailed Christian church leaders, whose arrests last year drew condemnation from the U.S. government, as Beijing seeks to silence religious faithful who refuse to submit to state control. – Wall Street Journal
Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged on Sunday to further open the country’s economy to foreign firms and pursue more balanced trade with its global partners, after a year marked by trade friction and tariff wars with the United States and European Union in particular. – Reuters
China’s commerce ministry on Friday released measures aimed at expanding consumption by foreign tourists, pledging to grant visa-free entry to more countries and improve visa-free transit policies. – Reuters
Premier Li Qiang pledged to address worries that trade partners have about China’s large surplus, underscoring Beijing’s concern the issue could disrupt relations with more nations during a truce with the US in the tariff dispute. – Bloomberg
Yasheng Huang writes: China should learn from this example. It must enrich its own citizens by encouraging collective bargaining, providing social security, removing caps on wage growth, and raising the minimum wage. Doing so could allow China’s consumption to eventually match its production prowess. If Beijing does not adopt a more pro-worker stance, its economy will become more lopsided, trade tensions will rise, and Chinese citizens will not be able to reap the full benefits of the economic miracle that they have created and rightly deserve. – Foreign Affairs
Audrye Wong and Derek Scissors write: American behavior in 2025 and 2026 practically shouts “there’s a chance!” at Beijing. China still must make tricky decisions, though. Is there more opportunity in engaging Washington or countries that America is alienating? How can relationship changes become durable? And of course, what to offer? To date, Xi has been cautious. But if he sees this as part of what Chinese leaders like to refer to as “great changes unseen in this century,” China certainly has the economic assets to do more to modestly separate the United States and its allies. – War on the Rocks
South Asia
Afghanistan has received the largest influx of people from Iran since the war began in late February — more than 70,000 people over the first two weeks of March, according to the United Nations’ migration agency. – New York Times
Indian refiners plan to resume buying Iranian oil while refiners elsewhere in Asia are examining such a move after Washington temporarily removed sanctions to alleviate an energy crunch caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, traders said on Saturday. – Reuters
Sri Lanka declined permission for two U.S. combat aircraft to land at a civilian airport earlier this month, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake told parliament on Friday. – Reuters
Myanmar’s parliament will start the process to elect a new president on March 30, officials said on Friday, a vote many analysts expect will be won by the head of the junta that seized power in a coup in 2021. – Reuters
Michael Rubin writes: Weapons will flood Pakistan and provide Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency the plausible deniability it needs to arm Kashmir and Khalistan movement terrorists or Jamaat-e Islami affiliates that Muhammad Yunus, the coup collaborator in Bangladesh, freed from prison. Criminal elements in India itself might also acquire weaponry, including Sunni extremists whom Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan incites with arguments that no Muslim should live under a non-Muslim government. The problems are not insurmountable, but they are real. At a minimum, India should be prepared: either defensively, to shut down weapons markets and crack down on smugglers, or more proactively, to secure weapons depots in Iran itself should the state collapse. – Firstpost
Asia
The International Energy Agency is consulting with governments in Asia and Europe on the release of more stockpiled oil “if necessary” due to the Iran war, Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Monday. – Reuters
Iran is ready to let Japanese-related vessels pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies, Kyodo news reported, citing Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. – Reuters
Japan could consider deploying its military for minesweeping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies, if a ceasefire is reached in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Sunday. – Reuters
Japan may start stockpiling U.S. oil domestically, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said during her visit to the United States, as it looks to diversify procurement and strengthen energy security. – Reuters
Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party started a week-long meeting on Monday that is set to make key state and government personnel decisions, the government said. – Reuters
Indonesia is seeking an estimated 80 trillion rupiah ($5 billion) in budget savings to help cope with the impact of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, presidential spokesperson Prasetyo Hadi said in an interview published on Saturday. – Reuters
Deliveries of delayed F-16V fighter jets for Taiwan will begin this year with production at “full capacity”, the island’s defence ministry said after senior defence officials visited the United States. – Reuters
Taiwan said it will skip a WTO conference in Cameroon due to a dispute over how the hosts labeled its delegation in visa paperwork. – Bloomberg
Germany is seeking to deepen defense ties with Japan, with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius proposing a new agreement to make it easier for troops from both countries to operate on each other’s territory. – Politico
David Fickling writes: It’s a far cry from the banal truisms used to market gas to emerging economies. As missiles flew across the Persian Gulf and buyers scratched around for alternative supplies, Shell Plc’s annual LNG outlook hailed the fuel as a “stabilizing force in the energy system.” About 70% of demand growth out to 2040 will come from Asia, Shell wrote, “because it is versatile, flexible, and reliable.” That’s a remarkable assertion amidst the chaos of 2026. In future, gas producers are going to need more than platitudes to convince customers they’re worth the risk. – Bloomberg
Kristi Govella and Jane Nakano write: During the initial three weeks since the beginning of the Iran conflict, the first-order impacts on Japan’s energy security and economy are already becoming apparent. Moving forward, much depends on the scale and duration of the conflict, but the second- and third-order effects of the conflict will undoubtedly have consequences for Japan as a country that is highly dependent on imported energy and the global economy, as well on its military alliance with the United States. When viewed in light of other sources of increasing uncertainty in the international environment and the hurdles facing the Japanese economy, it is clear that there will be many challenges for Tokyo to navigate in the days ahead. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Europe
Nearly two years ago, conservative leaders voted to expel French politician Eric Ciotti from their party over his alliance with Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Rally. – Wall Street Journal
In the run-up to Hungary’s pivotal election in April, a unit of Russia’s foreign intelligence service last month began sounding the alarm over plummeting public support for Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose friendly ties to Moscow have long given the Kremlin a strategic foothold inside NATO and the European Union. – Washington Post
On the morning of March 22, 2016, two men set off explosives in the departure hall of Brussels Airport, and a third detonated a bomb on a metro train at a stop in the city. It was just months after a string of attacks in Paris had killed 130 people. The two campaigns were carried out by the same terrorist cell — and seven of the more than 30 people involved in planning and executing them grew up or lived in Molenbeek. – New York Times
An Iranian man faces criminal charges after trying to enter a naval base in Scotland that houses Britain’s nuclear-armed submarines, the police said on Saturday. – New York Times
Switzerland has blocked any new sales of arms to the United States, invoking its policy of strict neutrality toward countries involved in armed conflict. – New York Times
A face-off between Europe’s liberals and right-wing populists aligned with President Trump ended in a near draw on Sunday when voters in Slovenia split almost evenly between the two camps, according to official results of a general election. – New York Times
British cabinet minister Steve Reed said on Sunday that there was no assessment that backed claims Iran is planning to strike Europe with ballistic missiles, or that it even has the capacity to do so. – Reuters
Britain said its Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus would not be involved in its defensive agreement with the United States to use UK bases, after a call on Saturday between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides. – Reuters
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Friday he did not see an obvious end to the conflict in the Middle East in the short-term, but that France and its allies would continue to work towards trying to find a lasting solution. – Reuters
Four ambulances belonging to a Jewish community organisation in north London were set ablaze, police said on Monday, adding that the incident was being treated as an antisemitic hate crime. – Reuters
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) were on course to win an election in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate on Sunday, ahead of their Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partners who faced a “bitter” defeat after ruling the state for 35 years. – Reuters
Tens of thousands of Czechs rallied on Saturday in the country’s biggest anti-government demonstration since 2019, protesting against defense spending cuts under Prime Minister Andrej Babis and over fears his administration will target public media. – Reuters
Greenlandic candidates competing for two seats in Denmark’s election next week hope to leverage the unprecedented attention brought to their island by U.S. President Donald Trump to wrangle concessions from its former colonial power. – Reuters
Czech investigators are investigating an overnight fire at an industrial complex as potentially being a deliberate attack, officials said on Friday, following media reports that a group protesting against Israeli weapons claimed responsibility. – Reuters
The French Navy seized an oil tanker on Friday in the Western Mediterranean that President Emmanuel Macron said belonged to Russia’s shadow fleet, a network of vessels that enables Moscow to export oil despite Western sanctions. – Reuters
Switzerland on Friday said it would not issue licences for companies to export weapons to the United States due to the ongoing attacks on Iran, citing the country’s neutrality. – Reuters
The Netherlands is stepping up security for Iranian dissidents living in the country after a man of Iranian descent who is known to be critical of the authorities in Tehran was shot, Dutch Justice Minister David van Weel said on Friday. – Reuters
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will hold an emergency meeting with his top ministers and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on the Iran crisis on Monday, as the clock ticks on President Donald Trump’s two-day deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. – Bloomberg
Cyprus wants a “frank, open discussion,” with the UK government over the future of the British sovereign bases on the eastern Mediterranean island when the current conflict in the Middle East is over, the nation’s President said. – Bloomberg
The European Union’s energy chief has told member states to start filling gas storage early in order to avoid competition for supplies that could cause a spike in prices over the summer, as the bloc seeks to mitigate the fallout from the Iran war. – Bloomberg
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has once again distanced himself from Donald Trump’s political base, while indicating he plans to continue engaging with the US president. – Bloomberg
US Vice President JD Vance will pay a visit to Hungary before the country’s pivotal April 12 elections, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told a podcast. – Bloomberg
The EU is limiting the flow of confidential material to Hungary and leaders are meeting in smaller groups — as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of long-standing suspicions Viktor Orbán’s government is sharing information with Russia. – Politico
Donald Trump has berated Keir Starmer over the Iran war. But the U.S. president might just have bought the British leader a little more time in the job. – Politico
Voter turnout in Italy’s referendum on judicial reform was 45.86 percent by 11 p.m. on Sunday, signaling a stronger-than-expected start to a vote seen as a key test for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. – Politico
Israel has warned major cities across the globe, including London, Paris and Berlin, could all be under threat from Iranian missiles after the regime launched a strike on a British military base in the Chagos Islands. – Daily Mail
Thomas Chatterton Williams writes: As ludicrous as it might sound to French voters who still remember the anti-Semitism and xenophobia of Jean-Marie Le Pen, today the far right is calling for a cordon sanitaire around the far left. Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old president of the RN, has labeled LFI “a danger for our democracy.” Étienne Ollion, the director of research in sociology at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, told me that this amounted to a “reversal of stigma that would have been unthinkable just five years ago.” Bardella’s assessment is sheer politicking, to be sure. But voters who have seen the video of left-wing militants stomping on Deranque’s head may find it hard to disagree. – The Atlantic
Africa
At least 64 people have been killed in an attack on a teaching hospital in Sudan’s western Darfur region, the head of the World Health Organization said, the latest assault targeting the country’s health care facilities. – New York Times
Chad intends to deploy 800 police officers and gendarmes to Haiti this year to participate in an international force to help Haiti’s police fight powerful armed gangs, a senior Chadian police official told Reuters. – Reuters
The U.S. military has multiple MQ-9 drones operating in Nigeria alongside 200 troops to provide training and intelligence support to the military, which is fighting Islamist militants across the north, U.S. and Nigerian officials told Reuters. – Reuters
Mauritius Deputy Prime Minister Paul Bérenger resigned after complaining that his warnings of threats to the Indian Ocean nation’s economy were being ignored. – Bloomberg
The Americas
U.S. authorities are investigating whether drug money was used to fund the successful 2022 campaign of Colombian President Gustavo Petro, people familiar with the matter said Friday. – Wall Street Journal
The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven countries said on Saturday they stood ready to take necessary measures to support global energy supplies and reaffirmed the importance of safeguarding maritime routes, including in the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters
Colombian Senator Paloma Valencia and running mate Juan Daniel Oviedo rose to second place in a poll ahead of elections starting in May to determine who succeeds President Gustavo Petro. – Bloomberg
North America
The Cuban government this week refused a request by the U.S. Embassy in Havana to import diesel fuel for its generators, calling the ask “shameless,” given the Trump administration’s fuel blockade on the island, according to diplomatic cables reviewed by The Washington Post. – Washington Post
Cuba on Friday rejected any suggestion that its political system or the term of its president were subject to negotiation in talks with the United States, following reports that Washington sought to remove Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel from power. – Reuters
Cuba had restored power to nearly half of the capital Havana by Sunday afternoon, officials said, less than 24 hours after the national grid collapsed for the second time in a week amid a U.S. oil blockade that has dealt a major blow to the island’s already ailing energy infrastructure. – Reuters
A tanker carrying fuel originally bound for Cuba on Friday changed its destination to Trinidad and Tobago, according to LSEG ship-tracking data, a blow for the island amid a severe fuel scarcity that has triggered power blackouts. – Reuters
Volunteers in Mexico loaded a fleet of modest boats bound for Cuba with rice, baby wipes and other supplies in a growing grassroots effort to help the island as it grapples with the fallout of a U.S. squeeze on oil imports that has led to power outages and a worsening economic crisis. – Reuters
Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said he’s encouraged by the start of technical talks with the US to review the North American free trade agreement, even as Canada remains absent from the early negotiations. – Bloomberg
Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: He eventually connects the dots: “Having allowed foreign capitalism in to rescue the collapsed economy, they now want to behead it before it becomes too powerful.” It’s a “Stalinist” housecleaning. “All I can do is think back and curse myself for not taking the warning signs seriously.” Last week Cuban Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, a great-nephew of Mr. Castro, announced Cuba is opening to investment from exiles. To put it another way, those who were forced to flee and whose property was stolen are invited to buy it back from the thieves. It’s the latest Cuban con job. – Wall Street Journal
United States
The U.S. war with Iran has triggered the broadest and fastest wave of attacks against U.S. embassies and consulates in the post-9/11 era, current and former officials said, as the Trump administration grapples with continuing threats to its overseas posts. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. government has “plenty of money” to fund the war against Iran, but is requesting supplemental funding from Congress to ensure the military is well supplied in the future, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration escalated its attacks on Harvard University on Friday, as it sued the Ivy League school to recover billions of dollars for allegedly failing to protect Jewish and Israeli students. – Reuters
Seth Cropsey writes: Deploying several thousand special-ops forces to southern Iran is enough to reopen the strait after some weeks of fighting. Casualties should be anticipated. To protect the special-ops units, regular troops will be required. With U.S. air supremacy, the Iranian regime’s forces will be loath to mass forces for an attack. The question is whether the president has the courage and conviction to authorize this operation, and to explain to the American people that the price of exerting U.S. power is far cheaper than the costs of its decline. – Wall Street Journal
Cybersecurity
Wally Liaw, co-founder of server maker Super Micro Computer SMCI, enjoyed a celebratory moment this past week when he and colleagues greeted a longtime partner, Nvidia NVDA Chief Executive Jensen Huang, at Nvidia’s annual technology conference. – Wall Street Journal
The Pentagon intends to accelerate AI-enabled decision-making and put it at the heart of its ambition to link up sensors and shooters for combat operations, according to a policy memo seen by Bloomberg. – Bloomberg
A member of the French navy using an app to track his jogging performance broadcast the exact position of his country’s flagship aircraft carrier, a newspaper has reported. – Agence France-Presse
The White House gave Congress a six-item framework of legislative policy items related to artificial intelligence on Friday that it believes will deliver “strong federal leadership to ensure the public’s trust in how AI is developed and used in their daily lives.” – Fedscoop
Russian intelligence-affiliated hackers have gained access to thousands of users’ messaging apps with a global phishing campaign, the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency warned in a public service announcement on Friday. – Cyberscoop
Authorities seized infrastructure powering four botnets that hijacked a combined three million devices and launched more than 300,000 DDoS attacks collectively, the Justice Department said Thursday. – Cyberscoop
The FBI accused the Iranian government of using four domains to host information stolen from the government of Albania, Iranian dissidents, Israeli government officials and U.S. companies. – The Record
Editorial: The various bans risk becoming obsolete even before they are enacted because of the growing prevalence of artificial intelligence being embedded into search engines. AI comes with different, and potentially even more harmful, risks to kids. Rather than block access, the better approach is to teach them how to use tools properly. Social platforms continue to improve parental controls, content filters and time limits. Schools can improve digital literacy. Ultimately, though, moms and dads will always know their children better than bureaucrats. – Washington Post
Defense
The Trump administration is racing to ship air defenses, radars and counter-drone systems to Arab states and U.S. forces in the Gulf, hoping to beef up their ability to defend against persistent and accurate Iranian missile and drone attacks. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. military is deploying thousands more Marines to the Middle East, officials told Reuters on Friday, as President Donald Trump accused NATO allies of cowardice over their reluctance to send forces to help open the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters
U.S. forces launched a strike against a boat allegedly involved in drug smuggling in the eastern Pacific, the U.S. military said on Friday, killing two people. – Reuters
A U.S.-led defense manufacturing partnership agreed to launch a new missile motor production program with Japan, push forward a drone cooperation effort across Asia and explore building a new ammunition production line in the Philippines, the Pentagon said on Friday. – Reuters
The US military said it has been able to degrade Iran’s ability to target ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz as President Donald Trump floated the idea of “winding down” military efforts in the Persian Gulf. – Bloomberg
Forces successfully countered a drone threat over a “strategic” U.S. installation hours into the joint U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran that began on Feb. 28, according to Gen. Gregory Guillot, commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command. – Defense News
The Defense Department and its federal partners issued a warning Friday to drone operators, threatening to impose massive fines, imprisonment and other measures on those who illegally fly unmanned aerial systems in restricted airspace. – Defensescoop
The Army has taken delivery of a UH-60M Black Hawk that has been upgraded with autonomous flight capabilities, the service announced Friday. – Defensescoop
Editorial: In January, Trump announced he would request a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027, which would bring expenditures closer to the 5 percent NATO allies recently agreed on. It’s unclear whether the $200 billion figure counts toward that larger number, but action would be welcome regardless. America has the technical prowess and financial ability to maintain its military preparedness around the world. It would be a shame if the country simply chose not to do it. – Washington Post
Seth G. Jones writes: In the longer term, the administration should make good on President Trump’s pledge to increase the defense budget by $500 billion for fiscal 2027. The Pentagon should use the money to procure systems necessary to support Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo’s Hellscape concept, which uses a mix of drones, long-range missiles and other capabilities to target Chinese forces attacking Taiwan. The Iran war is the latest wake-up call to revitalize the defense industrial base. It is time to move faster. – Wall Street Journal