Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, have agreed to meet soon and pave the way for the re-opening of embassies under a deal to re-establish ties, Saudi state news agency SPA said on Thursday. – Reuters 

Russia has become the largest foreign investor in Iran over the past year, according to Iranian officials, as the two heavily sanctioned nations have stepped up co-operation since Russian forces invaded Ukraine. – Financial Times 

A senior Israeli official told Axios Israel is monitoring Iran’s nuclear program and may take action if it enriches uranium above the 60% level. – Fox News 

Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, Johanna Moore, Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl write: First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber discussed privatization in ambiguous terms on March 22, likely in response to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s demand for concrete action to improve the Iranian economy. […]Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani met with Armenian Foreign Affairs Minister Ararat Mirzoyan during an official visit to Yerevan, Armenia on March 22. – Institute for the Study of War 

Marc Greendorfer and Roz Rothstein write: The Ayatollahs in Tehran have described Israel as the small Satan, and the United States as the big one. They don’t hide their eagerness to destroy Israel before turning their sights towards the US. The findings in our new in-depth report about the Mapping Project should serve as a wake-up call for the FBI, Department of Justice, and other American security agencies regarding the threat of Iranian plots targeting the American homeland. The Iranian regime is preparing for the day after a potential Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. And so should the US government. – Jerusalem Post 

Israel

Israel ratified a law on Thursday limiting the circumstances in which a prime minister can be removed, despite worries voiced by a government jurist that it may be meant to shield the incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu from any fallout from his corruption trials. – Reuters 

Poland will reinstate its ambassador to Israel, the Israeli foreign ministry said on Wednesday, after relations between the countries deteriorated when Warsaw introduced a law limiting the ability of Jews to recover World War Two properties. – Reuters 

Israel tried on Wednesday to calm international concern over its amending of a law that had ordered the 2005 evacuation of settlers from an area of the occupied West Bank, saying it had no intention of building new settlements there. – Reuters 

Days into Israel’s devastating war with Gaza militants in 2021, the Israeli army began deploying keyboard warriors to a second front: a covert social media operation to praise the military’s bombing campaign in the coastal enclave. – Associated Press

The Palestinians and Israel clashed over the future intentions of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far right-wing government at a U.N. Security Council meeting Wednesday, with the Palestinian U.N. ambassador pointing to an Israeli minister’s statement “denying our existence to justify what is to come.” – Associated Press 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday said he would prevent the passage of a proposal by a powerful ally in his governing coalition to punish Christian proselytizing with jail time. – Associated Press

Israel’s transportation minister, Miri Regev, targeted the United Arab Emirates with a barb that sent her colleagues scrambling to protect relations with one of Israel’s most important Gulf Arab partners. – Washington Examiner

Despite the vast political differences between the United States and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new hardline government, the Biden administration made clear from the get-go in December that it was still interested in and committed to strengthening ties with Israel. – Times of Israel 

The Iron Dome air defense system shot down an unmanned aircraft belonging to the Hamas terror group flying over the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces said. – Times of Israel 

Editorial: Even if the prime minister disagrees with these sentiments, the Netanyahu of past governments would have been attuned to them and adjusted policy accordingly. The current Netanyahu, however, is not similarly attuned, and the result – as the summons of Herzog to the State Department attests – is bad for Israel-US ties. – Jerusalem Post 

Tovah Lazaroff writes: Sharon in his letter to Bush had unequivocally pledged to support two states. Then as the US pointed out on Tuesday, it violated that pledge. Biden has been the first president in decades not to immediately pursue an Israeli-Palestinian peace plan, but it wants to hold open the option to do so. The Knesset on Tuesday might have taken a step to assuage a national trauma, but it also trashed the small shards of US and Palestinian hopes of a two-state peace process just as it seemed that progress was possible. – Jerusalem Post 

Troy O. Fritzhand writes: This in itself is the problem facing politics in Israel today: we have no leadership, so we look abroad for guidance. With this, do we really think we can write a constitution? I don’t think anybody believes that the current Knesset, coalition or opposition, contains even a handful of worthy people to enshrine a constitution into law. They can’t sit at a table together, never mind something bigger. If we had real leaders from both the coalition and opposition, they would tell Macron and other foreign leaders, “thanks for your input but we can deal with our own issues, just like you should deal with your own.” – Jerusalem Post 

Akiva Van Koningsveld writes: Terrorism against the Jewish state continues to evolve, with genocidal groups like Islamic Jihad and Hamas making common cause to attract young Palestinians. The emergence of new terror militias that are centered around territory rather than political affiliation, like the Lions’ Den and the Jenin Battalion, increasingly poses a threat to Israeli security forces. – Algemeiner 

Nir Hasson writes: If we have a bit of luck, composure and good judgment, Ramadan can be what it is intended to be according to Muslim tradition, a month of kindness and serenity. But luck and composure and good judgment have been seriously lacking recently in Israel. – Haaretz

Tal Meidan writes: Women’s rights are always the first to be trampled with every shock to the system, but that’s not the only reason men should be supporting us now. […]I urge anyone who, to her regret but to our delight, has been infected by the bug of leadership and justice: Get up and take charge. This protest must give rise to the female leader whom the liberal camp craves so much. – Haaretz  

David Makovsky and Nickolay Mladenov write: Each of the parties at Sharm may have its own reasons for wanting to avoid another holiday explosion in the West Bank. Yet if the new Quintet is to become a durable framework for problem-solving during and beyond Ramadan, Israel and the PA will need to be convinced that the other side is committed to stabilization. And mutual actions, not just words, will be necessary to truly allay each other’s deepest doubts. – Washington Institute 

Nadav Pollak writes: Yes, Israel is currently focused on how to deal with an assortment of weighty problems at home. But it is precisely because of this domestic instability that signaling adversaries like Hezbollah is so important. By sending the right message, Israel can show that it is still a formidable force and should not be tested during this time. – Washington Institute 

Lebanon

A federal judge in New York ordered Iran’s central bank and a European intermediary on Wednesday to pay out $1.68 billion to family members of troops killed in the 1983 car bombing of the U.S. Marine Corps barracks in Lebanon. – Reuters  

Lebanese security forces Wednesday fired tear gas to disperse hundreds of protesters, mainly retired soldiers, who tried to break through the fence leading to the government headquarters in downtown Beirut. – Associated Press 

Hezbollah terror chief Hassan Nasrallah on Wednesday broke his group’s silence on a blast on a highway in northern Israel last week, which was carried out by a man who infiltrated from Lebanon. – Times of Israel 

Middle East & North Africa

After years of underinvestment in North Africa’s energy infrastructure, global oil-and-gas giants from Halliburton Co. and Chevron Corp. to Eni SpA are ramping up their presence in the region as demand from Europe grows. – Wall Street Journal 

Egypt’s Suez Canal economic zone said on Wednesday that it partnered with Abu Dhabi (AD) ports to develop several projects in ports within the zone. – Reuters 

The World Bank said on Wednesday it had approved a new $7 billion partnership agreement with Egypt for 2023-2027 with a focus on boosting private sector jobs, provision of better health and education services, and adaptation to climate change. – Reuters 

Former Turkish economy tsar Mehmet Simsek’s refusal to return to politics has left President Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party scrambling to rebuild its economic credibility less than two months before landmark elections, insiders and analysts say. – Reuters 

The United States is “actively” working on re-establishing a diplomatic presence in Libya, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday, although he declined to provide an exact time on when the U.S. embassy can be reopened. – Reuters 

German authorities have arrested a Syrian man accused of belonging to a unit of the Islamic State group in his homeland that kidnapped and killed opponents, prosecutors said Wednesday. – Associated Press 

Jordan’s Parliament symbolically voted to expel Israel’s ambassador on Wednesday and the UAE expressed concern about events in Israel, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a crisis with regional allies. – Jerusalem Post 

Winthrop Rodgers writes: Without such a change in approach, Mamshai foresees “more division and fragmentation” and “the further decline of political freedoms, democratic values, and violation of human rights principles” in Iraqi Kurdistan. This would be a grave injustice for the Iraqi Kurdish people, who have made many sacrifices in the past 20 years in the fight against dictatorship and extremism in Iraq. – Foreign Policy 

China

Long reluctant to inject itself into conflicts far from its shores, Beijing is showing a new assertiveness as Xi Jinping begins his third term as the country’s head of state, positioning China to draw like-minded countries to its side and to have a greater say on global matters. – Wall Street Journal

Russian President Vladimir Putin this week called the Power of Siberia pipeline, which carries Russian gas to China, the “deal of the century.” But Putin’s hopes of swiftly securing a sequel of the century — the giant Power of Siberia 2 — deflated over two days of talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. – Washington Post 

In late 1978, China’s paramount leader Deng Xiaoping set in motion two major policy shifts that would change China and the world order in the decades to come. At a Communist Party meeting in December of that year, the leadership declared that China would turn its focus from political struggle to economic development. Within days, China and the United States announced that they would establish diplomatic relations. – New York Times 

The Solomon Islands has awarded a multi-million-dollar contract to a Chinese state company to upgrade an international port in Honiara in a project funded by the Asian Development Bank, an official of the island nation said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

China is “very carefully” watching how Washington and the world respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but has not yet crossed the line of providing lethal aid to Moscow, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

China will strengthen its policy guidance to support advanced manufacturing, Premier Li Qiang was quoted as saying by state radio on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Xi Jinping’s meetings in Moscow with Vladimir Putin put the Biden administration in an uncomfortable position: on the sidelines as two adversaries discuss a Ukraine peace proposal that the US has deemed unacceptable. – Bloomberg

China lambasted the latest steps taken by the UK and US to supply conventionally-armed but nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, in a diplomatic broadside circulated overnight among international atomic envoys. – Bloomberg

The United States has rejected Chinese claims that a U.S. warship was driven out of waters it illegally entered in the disputed South China Sea on Thursday. – NBC 

Chris Buckley writes: In their joint statement, Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin criticized NATO’s efforts to pay more attention to Asia. The leaders held up China and Russia’s relationship as superior to traditional Western military blocs because it is “mature, stable, independent and resilient.” China’s official news agency, Xinhua, issued an article explaining why the two countries would not want to establish a formal alliance that obliged them to aid each other in wars. Some readers were not convinced. “It’s only in name that we’re not allies,” said one reader’s comment. – New York Times 

David Fickling writes: As Europe’s experience has shown, it can be wrenching for an industrial sector hooked on gas to break the habit — but China hasn’t really reached that point yet, and probably never will. Instead, its future will be one of widespread electrification — and with renewables expansion continuing at a headlong pace, that means coal’s future is limited as well. Moscow has few alternatives to a future as China’s resource colony. Beijing, to Putin’s chagrin, has plenty. – Bloomberg

Brett Schaefer writes: While China is the main concern, other relatively wealthy nations similarly benefit from measures intended to assist poor nations. The concept of “common but differentiated responsibilities” needs reconsideration and limitation to ensure that it targets nations that truly need special consideration. It is incumbent on the U.S. and like-minded countries to push back and ensure that wealthy, economically competitive nations like China do not profit from benefits and different standards intended to assist poor nations. – Heritage Foundation

Asia

Russia said on Wednesday that a division of its Bastion coastal defence missile systems had been deployed to Paramushir, one of the Kuril islands in the north Pacific, some of which Japan claims as its territory. – Reuters 

The United States does not see an imminent threat of China invading Taiwan but is ready to defend the self-ruled island, a senior U.S. official said on Thursday in Singapore. – Reuters 

Chinese defence officials met their Australian counterparts in Canberra on Wednesday, China’s Ministry of National Defense said, in their first formal meeting since 2019. – Reuters 

Japan’s prime minister pledged Wednesday to provide Poland with development support to help the European country assist neighboring Ukraine as it defends itself from Russia’s invasion. – Associated Press

Senior Chinese and Filipino diplomats were meeting in Manila on Thursday to review their relations amid thorny issues, including Beijing’s alarm over a Philippine decision to allow the U.S. military to expand its presence to a northern region facing the Taiwan Strait and escalating spats in the disputed South China Sea. – Associated Press

Police in provincial Thailand killed a man who had fired at commandos storming his house early Thursday trying to safely end a 14-hour standoff after he shot to death three people and wounded three others, police said. – Associated Press

Seven progressive House Democrats voted against a bill on Wednesday that would require periodic reviews and updated reports pertaining to the State Department’s guidelines for U.S. engagement with Taiwan, marking the only opposition to the bill. – The Hill 

Editorial: The hard part will be absorbing the lessons, especially as some Republicans want to cut U.S. military spending as part of a debt-ceiling kamikaze run. But a fight for Taiwan is both preventable and worth preventing. As Democrats starve defense to fund an entitlement state, the country is depending on the Republicans in the game room to prevent the next war. – Wall Street Journal

Simone Gao writes: Mr. Xi may also see his window of opportunity closing to retake Taiwan. China’s economy is losing steam while the Western alliance is strengthening. Whether the Chinese Communist Party sticks with the united front or opts for confrontation, it may have to decide soon. – Wall Street Journal 

Africa

South Africa must implement reforms to boost private-sector investment, promote good governance and improve the efficiency of public spending to shore up an economy hamstrung by rolling blackouts, the International Monetary Fund said. – Bloomberg

Ethiopia’s parliament on Wednesday removed the Tigray region’s main political movement from a list of terrorist organizations, a major step towards establishing an interim local government after a two-year civil war. – Reuters 

The African Union appealed for nearly $90 million Wednesday for its peacekeeping force in Somalia, which is providing support to its military forces battling al-Shabab extremists. – Associated Press

More than 400 rebels accused of killing Chad’s former president have been sentenced to life in prison. – Associated Press 

An army convoy has delivered desperately-needed supplies to a northern Burkina Faso city that has been blockaded by jihadists for months, locals and security sources told AFP Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse

North America

President Joe Biden plans to have a brief meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s biggest political rival during an official visit to Canada that begins on Thursday, a senior administration official said. – Reuters 

A Chinese-Canadian lawmaker, cited in unconfirmed media reports as having ties to the Beijing government, forcefully denied those allegations but announced his resignation as a member of the Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. – Reuters 

Canada is extending a support program meant to help Ukrainians and their immediate families to become temporary residents of the North American country and easily apply for work or study permits, the Canadian immigration ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Cybersecurity

TikTok launched a battalion of influencers in the nation’s capital Wednesday to send a message to Congress: Banning the app would be met with widespread popular opposition. – Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration is under pressure to ban popular Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, but any such move likely hinges on passage of a new law that bolsters the government’s authority to regulate speech, experts said. – Reuters 

A total of 19 internet law scholars signed on to a January amicus brief in Gonzalez v. Google, arguing in favor of upholding Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, a federal statute at the heart of the case shielding companies like Google from liability for content posted by users. The case is widely viewed as one that could reshape content moderation and speech online. – Washington Examiner

Forty-one percent of Americans in a new poll say they support the federal government banning the video-sharing app TikTok as the platform comes under congressional scrutiny over user safety and data security concerns. – The Hill 

Cyberterrorism now ranks as the top critical threats to U.S. vital interests surpassing nuclear weapons and foreign terrorism, according to a new Gallup poll. – The Hill 

The recommendation does include Chinese-owned TikTok — at the heart of a storm on both sides of the Atlantic — but also features American platforms such as Snap and Meta’s WhatsApp and Instagram, alongside Telegram, founded by Russian-born brothers, and Signal. – Politico 

German and South Korean government agencies this week warned about a new spearphishing campaign from a notorious North Korean group targeting experts on the peninsula. – The Record 

Tara D. Sonenshine writes: In the end, the answer for America might lie in a broad new look at comprehensive legislation to ensure data security and privacy, like what the Europeans have done. Picking off TikTok is a short-term solution, but there will always be another social media clock ticking. – The Hill 

David McIntosh writes: Americans increasingly use their phones to manage every facet of their lives – from travel to banking to news and entertainment. Giving the government the power to ban apps and pick and choose between competing apps is a huge restriction on phone freedom. – Fox News 

Bill Echikson and Romy Hermans write: In Europe, the debate on ChatGPT has inflamed negotiations over the Artificial Intelligence Act. The proposed legislation classifies AI systems into four categories, with “high-risk” systems requiring transparency notices and safety assessments at market entry and throughout their lifecycle. – Center for European Policy Analysis