Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel launched a series of attacks against Hamas targets across the Gaza Strip early Tuesday, threatening a return to war after talks to release the remaining hostages held in the enclave stalled out. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s sudden attempt to remove the head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency is the latest salvo in a two-year campaign by the Israeli government to exert more control over different branches of the state. – New York Times

Israel spent 112 billion shekels ($31 billion) on its military conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon in 2024, the Finance Ministry said in a report on Monday. – Reuters

Israel awarded licences to BP, Azeri national oil firm Socar and local company NewMed Energy on Monday to explore for natural gas in Israeli waters as the country seeks to boost domestic gas reserves and expand exports. – Reuters

The Israeli military conducted airstrikes in Syria, Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip on Monday, which it said targeted several terror operatives and military sites that “posed a threat to the State of Israel.” – Agence France Presse

Documents captured by the Israeli army in Gaza during the war with Hamas reveal new details about the organization’s preparations for the October 7 attack. The documents include exchanges between Hamas’ leadership in Gaza and its leaders abroad – and at times with Hezbollah and Iran – as they coordinated the attack. – Haaretz

Editorial: The UN has utterly betrayed its founding principles, something that has been known for a long time now. The concept of an international body to maintain world peace and oversee global inter-connectivity has failed in its mandate. Instead, the UN has transformed into a mouthpiece for terrorist apologists while failing the very people it claims to protect. If the UN truly cared about human rights, it would demand Hamas be held accountable – not fabricate charges against a democratic nation fighting for survival. It is time for democratic nations, especially those who support Israel, to stop legitimizing this morally bankrupt institution. Anything less is complicity in one of the greatest moral failures of our time. – Jerusalem Post

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: In other words, the military is being increasingly aggressive in small ways to try to intimidate Hamas. It is willing to risk harsher global criticism, but it may all be a partial cover for a hesitance to do something much bigger. Eventually, though, Israel will either need to cut another deal, however imperfect, or choose between a new immense invasion or a return to smaller gradual invasions – with that third choice being a way to defer choosing between the first two. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Mandel writes: What is Abbas prepared to do to make the case for a two-state solution to those who have the ability to effectively veto any final-status agreement by activating terrorist proxies like Hamas and by weakening Western support for the continued existence of Israel? Rajoub’s claims notwithstanding, the evidence suggests Abbas doesn’t support a two-state solution, and there is certainly no meaningful evidence to the contrary. But if Abbas truly has a vision for a two-state solution, he should present it to the world. Before his successors have a chance to make good on their threats. – Commentary

Russia & Ukraine

The attack by the Ukrainians in December coordinated unmanned land and aerial vehicles on a scale that hadn’t previously been done, marking a new chapter of warfare where humans are largely removed from the front line of the battlefield, at least in the opening stages. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump’s hopes of getting Moscow to agree to a 30-day cease-fire with Ukraine are pinned to a phone call planned for Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is likely to push for territorial and other concessions. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Tuesday that Kyiv was not the obstacle for a peace deal with Russia and believes it can achieve just and lasting peace under the leadership of U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

Russia’s air defence units destroyed 46 Ukrainian drones overnight, its defence ministry said on Tuesday, the bulk of them over the Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine. – Reuters

Russian forces were on Monday advancing in southern Ukraine and had pierced part of the Ukrainian lines less than 50 km (30 miles) southeast of the city of Zaporizhzhia, according to Russian officials and pro-Russian military bloggers. – Reuters

A “significant number” of countries are willing to provide peacekeeping troops in Ukraine in the event of a peace deal with Russia, a spokesperson for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin allowed some international funds including American ones to sell Russian securities, a day before planned talks with President Donald Trump on a possible ceasefire in the war on Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Mikhail Zygar writes: It’s hard to say how the Trump administration might respond to a refused or broken cease-fire. Its initial enthusiasm for Russia seems to have already been tempered somewhat — see Mr. Trump’s recent threats of “large scale” sanctions on Russia if it doesn’t agree to a deal — and there is a long way to go. But we should be clear about what Mr. Putin is planning. It’s not peace. – New York Times

Celeste A. Wallander writes: Ukraine and the United States will be in a better position to negotiate peace and to deny Russia’s unacceptable demands for a settlement with Washington committed diplomatically and financially to Kyiv’s defense. But if that path becomes lost, all will not be lost to Ukraine. After withstanding repeated Russian aggression that began in 2014, building an army that repelled Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, and maintaining a strong defense in the three years since, it seems very unlikely that Ukrainians will unilaterally surrender now. And with Europe heeding the call to a united defense, they may not need to. – Foreign Affairs

Seth G. Jones writes: Instead, NATO should complement these defensive measures with a calibrated offensive campaign that focuses on several elements. These actions could be integrated into broader negotiations on a peace deal with Ukraine, in which the United States or European countries threaten—either implicitly or explicitly—offensive measures if Russia continues its sabotage campaign. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Middle East & North Africa

The cost of shipping goods through the Red Sea is expected to remain firm after the United States carried out further airstrikes on Yemen on Monday, adding to fears of new attacks on ships by the Iran-aligned Houthis targeted by Washington, industry sources said. – Reuters

Kuwait’s public pension fund accused asset manager Man Group, Swiss bank EFG and others of laundering bribes paid to its late director as a year-long $1 billion trial began at London’s High Court on Monday. – Reuters

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Monday that the monthly losses of the Suez Canal revenues reached around $800 million due to the regional “situation”, as Yemen’s Houthis have been attacking vessels in the Red Sea. – Reuters

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is working to secure a meeting with Donald Trump at the White House, possibly toward the end of April, according to Turkish officials familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Sabina Henneberg writes: Washington should therefore focus not on punishing Tunis, but on preventing its relations with Tehran from expanding into sectors that might actually affect U.S. interests. Tunisia’s security forces—particularly its military but also the internal security forces—benefit from significant Western (especially American) assistance, so continuing this longstanding partnership is perhaps the most effective way of preventing future Tunisian security collaboration with Iran. Additionally, maintaining rather than cutting U.S. support for education and other means of rebuilding Tunisia’s crumbling social and economic infrastructure will be crucial to curbing Iran’s malign influence. – Washington Institute

Burcu Ozcelik writes: By targeting the Houthis within the maximum pressure campaign against Iran, the United States is also demonstrating that it will not hold back from striking against armed groups aligned with Iran. This raises the question of whether Iran-linked Shia militia in Iraq could be targeted in the coming months as the United States ramps up its pressure on Baghdad to demilitarize these groups and expel Iranian influence from the country ahead of the parliamentary elections for October. – National Interest

China

China has vowed to “vigorously boost consumption” as it tries to inject new momentum into the world’s second-largest economy, which was already struggling before President Donald Trump launched a trade war that threatens to sap demand for its exports. – Washington Post

China is willing to work with the United Kingdom to deepen cooperation in financial services, trade and investment, as well as green and low-carbon development, Ding Xuexiang, China’s vice premier, told British Energy Secretary Ed Miliband on Monday. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday suggested that Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit the United States “in the not-too-distant future” for talks as economic tensions escalate between the powers. – Reuters

Chinese military exercises near Taiwan on Monday were punishment for Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s continued promotion of “separatism”, according to a stern statement out of Beijing, as Taiwan hit back by calling China a troublemaker. – Reuters

U.S. firms are buying cobalt metal produced in Indonesia by China’s Lygend Resources that does not incur the tariffs placed by the Trump administration on imports direct from China, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. – Reuters

Walter Russell Mead writes: Team Trump wants to break up the alignment among China, Russia and Iran by intimidating Iran and seducing Vladimir Putin. China will use every asset it can muster to keep the axis united and to keep its fellow revisionists pushing back against America’s international position. China’s steady progress toward key goals in the Indo-Pacific reminds both Russia and Iran of the limits of American power, and will encourage revisionists everywhere to stay the course. – Wall Street Journal

Brandon P. Yoder writes: None of this will happen with tariffs alone. Pressuring the Chinese government is an important part of U.S. diplomacy, and tariffs, if deployed skillfully, can provide leverage over Beijing as it attempts to manage its struggling economy. But ramping up pressure without a clear diplomatic or legal road map could reverse recent gains. Chinese officials have already signaled that the new U.S. tariffs “will deal a heavy blow to counternarcotics dialogue and cooperation.” To make further progress, Mr. Trump will have to direct his cabinet to get to work and engage in the painstaking diplomacy that will be necessary to save more U.S. lives. Regardless of political affiliation, all Americans should hope he succeeds. – New York Times

Asia

Hong Kong is opposed to “bullying tactics” by foreign governments, the city’s leader said on Tuesday when asked about conglomerate CK Hutchison’s port deal with U.S. firm BlackRock amid reports that China is also scrutinising the sale. – Reuters

The foreign ministers of South Korea, China and Japan will hold a meeting in Tokyo on Saturday, Seoul’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters

Public support for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government dropped to a record low after he handed out gift vouchers to some ruling party lawmakers, a poll conducted by the Asahi newspaper showed on Monday. – Reuters

Japanese automaker Honda Motor will procure batteries for its hybrid vehicles from Toyota Motor’s plant in the United States in an effort to reduce tariff risks under the Trump administration, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Monday. – Reuters

A trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs may drive up global inflation, stoke market volatility and slow economic growth, the CEOs of two top Australian banks said on Tuesday, but added Australia was insulated from the disruption. – Reuters

U.S. cuts to humanitarian aid are having a crushing impact on people in Myanmar, with violence likely to spiral, Thomas Andrews, the U.N. special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar told a press briefing in Geneva on Monday. – Reuters

Australia Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Tuesday she had raised with China concerns over anonymous letters sent to Australians offering a reward for information on the whereabouts of an Australian-based Hong Kong dissident. – Reuters

A Taiwan-based publisher detained by Chinese authorities since 2023 was convicted in February of “inciting secession” in China, Beijing said on Tuesday, prompting complaints from Taiwanese authorities that the trial had been held in secret. – Reuters

Indonesia will question hundreds of its citizens arriving in the capital on Tuesday after they were rescued from online scam compounds in Myanmar, the largest batch of arrivals in the country following a multinational crackdown on the operation. – Reuters

Taiwan expects President Donald Trump’s administration to continue to support it — along with supplies of US weaponry — in case of hostilities with China, a senior Taiwanese official said Monday. – Bloomberg

Alex Gilbert, Seaver Wang, and Morgan Bazilian write: The Cook Islands-China agreement constitutes more than a minor diplomatic development in a remote Pacific archipelago. It represents part of a larger geopolitical move by China to wrestle control of the Pacific, with marine minerals constituting a key axis of effort. Just as Sputnik galvanized American technological mobilization during the Space Race, this development should catalyze a comprehensive policy response to ensure mineral security. Deep-sea mining is not just about minerals; it is about the future of global maritime order. – National Interest

Africa

Rwanda severed diplomatic ties on Monday with its former colonial ruler, Belgium, which has been pushing to penalize Rwanda over its invasion of the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. – New York Times

Rwanda-backed M23 rebels on Monday pulled out of peace talks with the Democratic Republic of Congo’s government less than 24 hours before the warring parties in eastern Congo’s worst conflict in decades were due to convene in Angola. – Reuters

An airstrike by South Sudan’s airforce killed at least 19 people in the country’s east, residents said, less than two weeks after government forces withdrew from the area following intense fighting with an ethnic militia. – Reuters

Kenya and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will discuss a new lending programme and abandon the current one, as the country struggles to get its economy back on track after a borrowing spree led to a surge in debt-servicing costs. – Reuters

Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre replaced his defence minister with the Minister of Commerce and Industry Jibril Abdirashid Hajion Monday as part of a broader cabinet reshuffle. – Reuters

Remarks by South Africa’s ambassador to the United States about President Donald Trump were “unacceptable,” a State Department spokesperson told reporters on Monday after Washington last week made the decision to expel the envoy. – Reuters

Suspected Somali pirates have hijacked another Yemeni fishing boat off the Horn of Africa, the third such attack in recent weeks, authorities said Monday. – Associated Press

Mozambique’s most prominent opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane called for a nationwide shutdown on Tuesday to commemorate the country’s “true heroes,” including hundreds of protesters who have died in unrest following October elections. – Bloomberg

In a stormy session of the Johannesburg City Council last Thursday, a motion to block the renaming of the U.S. consulate’s street after a Palestinian terrorist was voted down and a councilor shouted “we want Hitler” at a Jewish colleague. – Jewish Insider

North America

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said changes in the geopolitical landscape and a need to secure more defense production in Canada have sparked a review of the country’s planned acquisition of 88 F-35 combat jets from Lockheed Martin. – Wall Street Journal

Canada is ready to talk with the U.S. about the two countries’ economic and security ties but not until the Trump administration ceases referring to its northern neighbor as the 51st state, Prime Minister Mark Carney said. – Wall Street Journal

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said it was important to strengthen ties with “reliable allies” in Europe, as he met British and French leaders on his first overseas visit amid tensions with the United States. – Reuters

The Mexican government said Monday that it had arrested a known member of the MS-13 gang, who is listed on the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Top Ten Most Wanted list. – Newsweek

Cybersecurity

After more than six months stuck in France on legal charges, Telegram founder and Chief Executive Pavel Durov is back in Dubai—at least for a few weeks. – Wall Street Journal

Tech companies must start putting in place measures to protect users from child sexual abuse images and other illegal content in Britain from Monday as enforcement of its online safety regime ramps up. – Reuters

A U.S. House of Representatives committee on Monday asked the Homeland Security Department to turn over documents on the federal government’s response to reported massive Chinese hacking incidents. – Reuters

U.S. Commerce department bureaus informed staffers in recent weeks that Chinese artificial intelligence model DeepSeek is banned on their government devices, according to a message seen by Reuters and two people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

Poland is working to bolster online security and talking to social media platforms in anticipation of increased cyberattacks ahead of the presidential election, according to Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski. – Bloomberg

The Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange OKX is temporarily shutting down a popular tool after discovering North Korean hackers were attempting to use it to launder funds stolen from other platforms. – The Record