Fdd's overnight brief

March 17, 2025

In The News

Israel

The Trump administration rejected a Hamas offer to release the last living American hostage and the bodies of four others in exchange for Israeli concessions, accusing the group of making impractical demands while pretending to be flexible. – Wall Street Journal

Venture-capital firms that have been pouring money into American defense startups are setting their sights on Israel, investing in military tech companies that have emerged since the country went to war in Gaza and Lebanon. – Wall Street Journal

Israel will begin implementing sweeping new visa and registration rules for international aid organizations operating in the Palestinian territories, introducing restrictions that humanitarian groups say would politicize their work, put local and international staff at risk and undermine relief efforts in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. – Washington Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that he was taking action to oust the director of the Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, raising concerns among critics that he was seeking to undermine its independence. – New York Times

Somalia and its breakaway region of Somaliland have not received any proposal from the United States or Israel to resettle Palestinians from Gaza, their foreign ministers said on Friday, with Mogadishu saying it categorically rejected any such move. – Reuters

Israeli military strikes have killed at least 15 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours, the enclave’s health ministry said on Sunday, as Arab and U.S. mediators work to shore up a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. – Reuters

The G7 on Friday called for the resumption of “unhindered” humanitarian aid for Gaza. In a final statement from their foreign ministers in Canada, the group of powerful democracies “reaffirmed their support for the resumption of unhindered humanitarian aid into Gaza and for a permanent ceasefire.” – Agence France-Presse

After surviving nearly a year and a half deep underground, with barely enough air to breathe and no light, and sharing an 18-square-foot space with three other men, recently released hostage Tal Shoham shared with Fox News Digital his harrowing story of captivity at the hands of Hamas. – Fox News

A Muslim charity with links to Hamas was awarded more than $7.2 million in taxpayer cash, which has now disappeared, according to a watchdog group. – New York Post

IDF sources expect the Israeli government to authorize military operations in the Gaza Strip if no last-minute breakthrough occurs in the hostage deal. – Jerusalem Post

Yisrael Beytenu head MK Avigdor Liberman said he intends to run for the prime minister of Israel in an interview with 103fm on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Terrorist infiltration sirens sounded in Harasha in the West Bank on Friday evening after several suspects were seen outside the settlement, according to the IDF. – Jerusalem Post

A missile fired by the Houthi terrorist organization fell in the city of Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, army radio reported Sunday morning. The IDF is investigating whether the missile was aimed at Israel. – Jerusalem Post

The Israel Police decided on Sunday to summon former Shin Bet chief Nadav Argaman for questioning, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu filed a police complaint last week accusing him of blackmail. – Times of Israel

Opposition politicians reacted with outrage Sunday evening to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement that he was moving to fire Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, vowing to take legal action to block the move. – Times of Israel

An Israeli negotiating team departed for Cairo on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said, as Jerusalem continued its efforts to reach a deal with Hamas for an extension of the ceasefire deal and the release of additional hostages. – Times of Israel

Editorial: A last comment about Trump’s use of the threat of hell breaking loose on the Palestinians: Some say that with tens of thousands of Palestinians killed by the IDF in the Gaza Strip, and extensive destruction of buildings and infrastructure there, hell has already broken loose there – unfortunately, without any effect on the willingness of Hamas to return all the hostages without a complete end of hostilities and a complete Israeli withdrawal from the territory. In the final reckoning, it is fair to say that the worst hell is being suffered by the remaining 22 live hostages being held by Hamas. That hell ought to be ended completely and immediately. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Cropsey and Joseph Epstein write: A stable route would give the West better access to Central Asia. The region’s large oil and gas reserves could also cut Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. Nothing brings countries together in geopolitics like a mutual enemy. Forming a U.S.-Israel-Azerbaijan alliance and extending the Abraham Accords to Baku would forge powerful coalitions to counter Iran, secure critical trade routes and reshape the geopolitical landscape in Washington’s favor. – Wall Street Journal

Elie Podeh writes: Ultimately, the summit did not produce a useful and effective tool in the immediate term for negotiations over Gaza. It did, however, grant vague Arab approval for the removal of Hamas, opening the way for an alternative Palestinian ruling body. This approval will be significant in the longer term, when this question becomes a more realistic one. In the meantime, the path to that outcome remains shrouded in uncertainty. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

Days after a letter from President Donald Trump reached Iran’s supreme leader, giving him a choice between negotiating a deal to end Iran’s nuclear program or U.S. military action to destroy it, the two sides remain far apart on the conditions that would allow such a conversation, let alone an agreement. – Washington Post

Though it harbours deep mistrust of the United States, and President Donald Trump in particular, Tehran is increasingly concerned that mounting public anger over economic hardships could erupt into mass protests, four Iranian officials said. – Reuters

Iran will respond to a letter by U.S. President Donald Trump “after full scrutiny,” foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday. – Reuters

Iran is increasingly relying on electronic surveillance and the public to inform on women refusing to wear the country’s mandatory headscarf in public, as hard-liners push for harsher penalties for those protesting the law, a United Nations report released Friday found. – Associated Press

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman on Sunday following the US attacks on Iran-backed Houthi forces, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported. – Bloomberg

Several Iranian officers believe that Hamas and Hezbollah will not recover in strength and have also spoken out against the Islamic Republic regime in a rare interview with the N12 news site published on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Sunday threatened a “decisive” response to any attack after US President Donald Trump ordered a wave of airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthi rebels and warned Tehran to stop backing the group. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Iran knows it’s weak. If Mr. Trump can expand sanctions to tank its oil exports to China, and work with Israel to present a military threat that’s credible for once, Iran will have to decide if it wants to give up its nuclear project or risk more internal unrest or a military strike. Concessions that could make a deal worthwhile then might become possible. – Wall Street Journal

Erfan Fard writes: Khamenei’s goal is to ensure his regime’s survival with the acquiescence of America and Israel. He is aware that should hostilities commence, the Iranian populace will consign this warmongering dictator to the trash heap of history, where he belongs. Indeed, a tumultuous spring and summer loom ahead… “Strike the snake’s head, or it will bite…” – Jerusalem Post

Scott Modell writes: Tehran will have to divert resources from its destabilizing activities, such as its nuclear program and support for regional proxies, and make real concessions or risk further escalation. Trump’s return to the presidency presents a historic opportunity to reset the United States’ approach to Iran. Oil markets are soft, and Iran is more vulnerable than it has been in decades. By turning off the taps, the United States can deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s ambitions and set the stage for a more stable and secure future. – Atlantic Council

Russia & Ukraine

A mineral-rights deal that the Trump administration says will make the U.S. vested in Ukraine’s defense has an instructive historical precedent in Washington’s unofficial oil-for-security pact with Saudi Arabia. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine’s audacious military gambit inside Russia drew toward a close this week much as it started last summer: quickly. A rapid Russian advance in recent days left remaining Ukrainian forces increasingly isolated under withering assaults, and they had pulled out from all but a sliver of Kursk province by the weekend. – Wall Street Journal

In the wake of the Trump administration’s dramatic pivot toward Moscow, Russia’s influential ultra-patriots are scrambling to make sense of the sudden thaw with the nation’s bitterest enemy. – Washington Post

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on Saturday accused President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia of trying to surround Kyiv’s forces in Russia’s Kursk region to improve his position amid cease-fire talks with Washington, but said that Ukraine’s forces had not been trapped. – New York Times

Russia will seek “ironclad” guarantees in any peace deal on Ukraine that NATO nations will exclude Kyiv from membership and that Ukraine will remain neutral, a Russian deputy foreign minister said in remarks published on Monday. – Reuters

Russia will spare the lives of Ukrainian soldiers in its western Kursk region if Kyiv tells them to surrender, President Vladimir Putin said on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump urged him to avoid a “horrible massacre” there. – Reuters

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said on Friday that the United States was still deciding on the terms required to sign the minerals deal with Kyiv. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that he saw a good chance to end the war with Russia after Ukraine accepted a U.S. proposal for a 30-day interim ceasefire and Moscow said it would only agree if certain conditions were met. – Reuters

G7 nations emphasised on Friday the need for robust “security arrangements” to ensure a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, warning Moscow to follow Kyiv in agreeing a ceasefire or face further sanctions, according to a final draft statement. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said he plans to speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and discuss ending the war in Ukraine, after positive talks between U.S. and Russian officials in Moscow. – Reuters

Marc Champion writes: Putin may at a point calculate it is best to give Trump the 30-day ceasefire he needs to prove he still has the “art of the deal,” before finding a pretext to return to Ukraine’s invasion. But what this and the other scenarios have in common is that the big decisions quickly come back to the White House, where patience and strategy are in short supply. Believe me when I say that I want to be proved wrong. – Bloomberg

Dov S. Zakheim writes: In doing the latter, Washington would even go at least some distance toward closing the breach with its European allies that Putin and his predecessors fought so had to create. If Putin is as clever as many make him out to be, he will immediately accept the American-Ukrainian offer to negotiate. Otherwise, he could well discover, much to his regret, that just as he thinks he holds more cards than Ukraine, Washington holds more cards than he does. – The Hill

Syria

Syria’s defense ministry on Sunday accused Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group of abducting three Syrian soldiers to Lebanon and killing them there, state media reported, as Hezbollah denied any involvement in clashes. – Times of Israel

The U.S. military has been playing an important, behind-the-scenes diplomatic role in Syria, helping broker deals between militia groups and the country’s new government, American officers said. – Wall Street Journal

A delegation of Syrian Druse made a rare trip to Israel this week and visited a shrine revered by the faith as Israel seeks to extend its influence inside Syria after the fall of the dictator Bashar al-Assad. – New York Times

The interim government in Damascus will take part on Monday in an annual international conference to gather aid pledges for Syria, facing dire humanitarian problems and an uncertain political transition after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters

Some of the Syrians who sought sanctuary at a Russian air base from sectarian killings are trickling home to devastated villages. Many others remain inside, fearing for their lives. – Reuters

The Kurdish-led group which governs northeast Syria on Friday rejected a constitutional declaration issued by the new Islamist leadership in Damascus and called for it to be rewritten. – Reuters

The United Nations’ special envoy for Syria said on Friday that now is the time for a “genuine, credible and inclusive transitional government” after noting the constitutional declaration issued by the caretaker authorities. – Reuters

Germany is pledging a further 300 million euros ($326 million) in aid for Syrians through the United Nations and select organisations, said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Monday, ahead of an EU-led donor conference in Brussels. – Reuters

Thousands of Syrians poured into the streets and public squares on Saturday to mark the 14th anniversary of the start of the country’s civil war for the first time since Bashar Assad was swept from power. – Associated Press

A blast in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia killed at least 10 people on Saturday, state media reported, adding that it was triggered by a scrap dealer mishandling unexploded ordnance. – Agence France Presse

Editorial: In a worrying sign, al-Sharaa missed his own March 1 deadline to form a transitional government. But also worrying is the country’s economic free fall — made worse by the Trump administration’s cutoff of foreign assistance. Instead, without spending a dollar, the United States could stop Syria from becoming a failed state by temporarily lifting sanctions. – Washington Post

Iraq

An airstrike killed a senior Islamic State leader believed to be the head of the group in Iraq and Syria on Friday, in a joint Iraqi and U.S. operation using intelligence from both countries, Iraq’s prime minister said. – New York Times

Iraq’s security forces have seized an estimated 1.1 tonne of captagon pills hidden inside a truck that entered Iraq from Syria via Turkey, the Interior Ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

Syria’s foreign minister made his first visit to Iraq since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, and called on Baghdad to reopen the border between the two countries that it had shut in the wake of the revolt that toppled him. – Reuters

Turkey

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone with U.S. President Donald Trump and discussed efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine and to restore stability in Syria, Erdogan’s office said on Sunday. – Reuters

The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government has aggravated already tense relations between Turkey and Israel, with their conflicting interests in Syria pushing the relationship toward a possible collision course. – Associated Press

Turkey’s foreign minister said Friday that Ankara is closely monitoring an agreement between the Syrian government and a U.S-backed Kurdish-led armed group, expressing concern over potential future threats to Turkey’s security. – Associated Press

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged the US to lift sanctions imposed in 2020 on its defense industry and called for it to be reinstated in the multi-national F-35 initiative that develops and produces the next generation of military jets. – Bloomberg

Turkiye on Sunday called on the European Union to unconditionally lift sanctions on the Syrian Arab Republic, ahead of an international aid conference in Brussels to which the war-torn country’s new authorities have been invited. – Agence France-Presse

Lebanon

The U.S. is weighing in with Lebanon’s government on the selection of the country’s next central bank governor in a bid to curtail corruption and illicit financing for the armed group Hezbollah through Lebanon’s banking system, five sources familiar with the issue said. – Reuters

Syria’s military fired rockets and shells at Lebanon on Sunday after accusing Iran-backed Hezbollah of executing three Syrian army personnel, sparking unusual tensions between the two war-ravaged neighbors. – Bloomberg

Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killed four people on Sunday, Lebanese state media and the health ministry said, as Israel’s military said it had killed two Hezbollah militants. – Agence France-Presse

The General Intelligence Service head of the Palestinian Authority, Majed Faraj, reportedly visited Lebanon less than two weeks ago and held a discreet meeting with Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun, Hezbollah-affiliate newspaper Al-Akhbar revealed Saturday morning. – Jerusalem Post

Yemen

U.S. officials said Sunday the attacks were designed as a show of overwhelming force, far more intense than the strike order under the Biden administration to take out the Houthis capacity to harass Red Sea shipping lanes. The attacks also hit directly at the Houthi leadership, officials said—something the Biden administration decided against. – Wall Street Journal

The United States will keep attacking Yemen’s Houthis until they end attacks on shipping, the U.S. defense secretary said on Sunday, as the Iran-aligned group signaled it could escalate in response to deadly U.S. strikes the day before. – Reuters

An attack targeted the Yemeni capital Sanaa, the Houthi-run Al Masirah TV said on Saturday, without providing further details. – Reuters

The chief of the Houthi leader’s security detail was reportedly killed during a US strike on Houthi targets in Yemen, according to Israeli media, citing a Saudi report on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Deterring the Houthi attacks is crucial to restoring the freedom of global commerce. They have all but shut down the Red Sea route between Europe and Asia for ships that aren’t Russian, Chinese or Iranian. The cost of shipping and insurance have soared. It’s encouraging that, at least in this case, Mr. Trump believes in American global leadership. – Wall Street Journal

Middle East & North Africa

Dubai’s index declined on Friday, driven by losses in heavyweight real estate sector stocks as U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats made investors nervous, while Abu Dhabi bucked the trend to close higher. – Reuters

According to the ICC, Al-Masri was no moneyed Mediterranean holidaymaker but the longtime enforcer of one of Libya’s deadliest prisons. When news of his arrest made it back home, locals saw it as a rare shot to hold accountable one of the many powerful men who had plunged their country into misery. – Politico

Libya’s education minister has been sentenced to three and a half years in prison because of a textbook shortage dating back to 2021, the attorney-general’s office announced on Sunday. – Agence France-Presse

Neville Teller writes: In 2024, Egypt attracted 15.7 million tourists, breaking its record for the second consecutive year. Tourism and Antiquities Minister Sherif Fathy projects that Egypt is on track to reach 30 million tourists by 2030. With its multi-million development program showing every sign of succeeding, Egypt is particularly well-placed to mastermind an international effort to reconstruct Gaza. Its plan has been widely endorsed. Will that be enough to see it launched? – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s opposition Democratic Party on Monday urged the country’s Constitutional Court to swiftly rule on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment, saying keeping the country waiting is “irresponsible” and deepening social division. – Reuters

South Korea’s acting President Choi Sang-mok called on Monday to avoid any negative impact on science, technology and energy cooperation with the United States, after the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) designated South Korea as a ‘sensitive’ country. – Reuters

North Korea said on Monday it will steadily upgrade and bolster its nuclear armed forces and blamed the foreign ministers of G7 states for infringing on its sovereign rights by demanding the end of its nuclear weapons programme, state media reported. – Reuters

Multiple Russian military planes entered South Korea’s air defence zone on Saturday, South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff said on Saturday. – Reuters

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko is visiting North Korea, North Korean state media KCNA said on Saturday. – Reuters

China

China reported surprisingly robust economic activity to start the year, giving Beijing some wind at its back as it faces the prospect of increased tensions with President Trump’s second administration. – Wall Street Journal

About a decade ago, some Western companies answered Beijing’s calls to invest in Xinjiang, an underdeveloped region in the country’s remote west. Some were drawn by the natural resources there. Others eyed the political points they could score with China. – Wall Street Journal

The Chinese government has strongly criticized a planned deal by a Hong Kong conglomerate to sell ports in Panama and elsewhere to an investment group led by an American asset manager, warning that the deal would deprive China of needed influence over key shipping routes. – New York Times

Officials in Beijing are increasingly worried that President Trump’s tariffs on Mexico may be the start of a broad campaign to force developing countries around the world to choose between trade with the United States or with China. – New York Times

Chinese state oil companies are shying away from Russian oil this month, with two importers halting purchases while two others scaled back volumes as they assess compliance following recent U.S. sanctions on Moscow, multiple trade sources said. – Reuters

China has lashed out at accusations it is endangering maritime safety made by top diplomats from the Group of 7 industrialized democracies in a joint statement, saying the G7 members are “filled with arrogance, prejudice and malicious intentions.” – Associated Press

China’s President Xi Jinping has declined an initial invitation to visit Brussels for a summit to mark the 50th anniversary of ties, as the EU questions the sincerity of recent Chinese overtures. – Financial Times

Brahma Chellaney writes: The U.S. military posture in the Indo-Pacific, for its part, is likely to be defined by deterrence. While shunning provocative actions that could escalate tensions, the Trump administration is expected to strengthen deterrence to prevent aggression, including against an increasingly vulnerable Taiwan. The strategy will likely seek to ensure that the adversary feels the walls closing in — without feeling the punch. – The Hill

South Asia

When companies began shifting their global supply chains away from China, India declared it was ready to become the world’s factory. But the moment hasn’t arrived. – Washington Post

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said U.S. President Donald Trump was ‘far more prepared’ for his second term, furnished with a clear roadmap, speaking in a podcast interview weeks ahead of reciprocal tariffs planned by Washington. – Reuters

Separatist militants drove a vehicle laden with explosives into a paramilitary convoy, killing at least five in southwestern Pakistan, officials said on Sunday, just days after the same group hijacked a train and held hostages for 36 hours. – Reuters

A Chinese shipyard has completed a second submarine for the Pakistan navy, further strengthening military ties between the two countries. – Associated Press

An airstrike by Myanmar’s military on a central village under the control of resistance forces has killed at least 27 civilians and injured 30 others, an opposition group and Myanmar’s online media said Saturday. – Associated Press

Pakistan’s military accused neighboring India on Friday of sponsoring insurgents in the restive southwest as more survivors recounted their ordeal from the unprecedented attack by armed separatists this week that killed 26 passengers aboard a hijacked train. – Associated Press

Mihir Sharma writes: The military, too, must recognize that they will lose credibility when they fail to manage security — and failure is guaranteed without some form of political outreach to the various discontented factions. They have to allow the politicians to take some risks and show some independent leadership. Sharif has done well to steady Pakistan’s economy. It’s time for him to become a prime minister, not just a glorified finance minister. – Bloomberg

Asia

In a scenario once considered unthinkable for a head of state who presided over the public and brutal killings of thousands of civilians, Rodrigo Duterte, the former president of the Philippines, appeared at an International Criminal Court hearing via a video link on Friday. – New York Times

Vietnamese and Americans firms have signed a series of deals on energy and minerals during a visit to the United States by Vietnam’s trade minister, state media and one of the firms said on Friday. – Reuters

A delegation from the Thai government will visit China this week to check on the welfare of dozens of Uyghur refugees, after their controversial deportation drew global condemnation and US travel sanctions on local officials. – Bloomberg

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese downplayed the scale of any Australian participation in a future peacekeeping force in Ukraine as allied leaders intensify efforts to secure a ceasefire. – Bloomberg

Europe

Hours after his Oval Office fallout with President Trump last month, Volodymyr Zelensky flew to London to be greeted by cheering crowds and an embrace from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. – Wall Street Journal

The European Commission is putting forward a plan to fill holes in the bloc’s defense capabilities and support Ukraine as the U.S. mulls reducing military support to Europe, according to a draft paper seen by Dow Jones Newswires. – Wall Street Journal

Three years after Russia used Belarus as a launching pad for its brutal invasion of Ukraine, the border here between Belarus and Ukraine is eerily quiet. – Washington Post

A court in Finland found a Russian paramilitary fighter guilty of war crimes committed during Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine, sentencing him to life in prison on Friday. – New York Times

Thousands of Romanians took to the streets of Bucharest on Saturday to show their support for the European Union, amid political disputes over a presidential election rerun scheduled for May. – Reuters

Germany’s parliamentary budget committee on Sunday approved plans for a massive increase in state borrowing aimed at bolstering defence and reviving growth in Europe’s biggest economy. – Reuters

Greenland’s political parties must set aside disagreements and swiftly form a broad coalition government to show unity in the face of a U.S. campaign to annex the island, the Democrats said on Friday after winning this week’s election. – Reuters

The European Union agreed on Friday to renew sanctions on Russian individuals and entities but kept Russian tycoon Mikhail Fridman on the list despite pressure from Hungary, EU diplomats said. – Reuters

The stationing of peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, as proposed by Britain and France as part of a ceasefire agreement with Russia, is a question for Kyiv to decide and not Moscow, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Saturday that Western allies other than the U.S. were stepping up preparations to support Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire with Russia, with defence chiefs set to firm up “robust plans” next week. – Reuters

Two women born on the Chagos Islands are seeking to take the British government to court over a proposed deal to transfer sovereignty of the disputed Indian Ocean archipelago to Mauritius. – Associated Press

New lawmakers were sworn in on Friday to Bulgaria’s parliament after a court ordered a partial recount of the October early general election, which changed the makeup of the legislature. – Associated Press

Tens of thousands of Italians joined a pro-Europe rally in Rome’s city center Saturday, waving blue European Union flags in a sign of support and unity as a European push for rearmament divides the country. – Associated Press

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar informed the Foreign Affairs Minister of North Macedonia, Timco Mucunski, that Israeli medical experts would travel to the country to assist after a fire killed dozens. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Promising to spend money is the easy part. Now Berlin faces a challenge of many years to restock empty arsenals, rebuild depleted military forces, and develop new capabilities—and time is short in a more dangerous world. But perhaps Berlin finally realizes that its post-Cold War holiday from history is over. It’s an important step for Germany, for Europe, and for what American Presidents used to call the free world. – Wall Street Journal

Ferenc Németh writes: The real risk is that the US unintentionally begins to dismantle the security and political architecture it has spent decades constructing and maintaining in the Western Balkans. Driven by Trump’s desire to achieve quick successes and his engagement with admiring local leaders, this could create the first cracks in that system, especially in Kosovo, and Bosnia and Hercegovina. These cracks would surely be used and abused by local and external groups, ultimately with unwanted and potentially serious consequences for Europe. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Africa

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday declared Ebrahim Rasool, South Africa’s ambassador to the United States, persona non grata, saying “he is no longer welcome in our great country.” – Washington Post

Niger’s junta has ordered three Chinese officials working in the oil sector to leave the country, two sources familiar with the decision told Reuters on Friday, in the latest move by regional military governments to assert greater control over resources. – Reuters

Democratic Republic of Congo will send a delegation to Angola on Tuesday for talks aiming to resolve a spiralling conflict against Rwandan-backed rebels in the east, the presidency said on Sunday. – Reuters

Militias allied with Burkina Faso’s military junta have been linked to a “gruesome” massacre western Burkina Faso that left dozens dead this week, Human Rights Watch said late on Friday. – Reuters

The European Union is expected to sanction nine individuals in connection with violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo, two EU diplomats said on Friday. – Reuters

Video footage circulating on social networks of a recent civilian massacre in Burkina Faso appears to implicate government-allied militia, Human Rights Watch said, calling on authorities to investigate and prosecute all those responsible. – Associated Press

Sudanese authorities said Sunday many bodies have been found at the bottom of a well in the capital, Khartoum, a few days after the military cleared the area from a notorious paramilitary group. – Associated Press

The US Embassy in Mogadishu denied it’s begun pulling staff out of Somalia because of an increasingly unstable situation in the eastern African nation. – Bloomberg

South Africa could lose its United States consulate in Johannesburg if the city changes the name of Sandton Drive to Leila Khaled Drive. – Business Tech

The Americas

As Latin America’s drug trade surges, the Trump administration’s aid freeze has brought crucial anti-narcotics programs to a screeching halt. – Washington Post

Thousands of people gathered on Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana Beach on Sunday in a show of support for former Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro, who faces charges of leading a plot to topple the government and undermine the country’s democracy after he lost a 2022 election. – Reuters

Venezuela’s government on Sunday blasted the U.S. implementation of a rarely used wartime law, rapidly blocked by a U.S. judge, to deport over 200 alleged members of Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to El Salvador. – Reuters

Ecuadorean officials have told allies of U.S. President Donald Trump that they are interested in hosting a U.S. military base in the South American country, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the matter. – Reuters

Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro pledged to sign energy, military and financial deals, when they spoke on a live video call on Friday. – Bloomberg

North America

Mark Carney took over Friday as Canada’s prime minister, planting a former central banker known for navigating crises in the middle of a trade war with President Trump and likely kicking off a national election. – Wall Street Journal

With a trade war brewing, President Trump gave the Mexican president a sign of grudging respect: “You’re tough,” he told her in a phone call last month, according to four people with knowledge of the exchange. – New York Times

Illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border are down to their lowest level in decades. Once-crowded migrant shelters are empty. Instead of heading north, people stranded in Mexico are starting to return home in bigger numbers. – New York Times

French President Emmanuel Macron will host Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney for a meeting in Paris on Monday in Carney’s first foreign visit since taking office, Macron’s office said on Saturday. – Reuters

Arturo McFields writes: Mexico must reverse and review its relationship with China. This should not be negotiable or neglected. During the last few weeks, Mexico has increased cooperation with the U.S. on migration, drug trafficking and organized crime — a historic change. In this new context, its relationship with Huawei sends a contrary message to building a stronger and more transparent relationship with the U.S. The threat is colossal, contentious and too close to being ignored. China’s Trojan horse is at the door. It must be stopped, and it must be stopped now. – The Hill

United States

The U.S. government says the detained Columbia University graduate student Mahmoud Khalil might be aligned with terrorists. Friends and supporters of Khalil who are pleading for his release paint a starkly different portrait of the father-to-be. – Wall Street Journal

Top diplomats from the Group of Seven industrialized democracies set aside a growing list of disagreements with President Donald Trump over his tariffs and brash territorial claims and agreed to a joint statement on shared priorities, including pressuring Russia into a ceasefire, ending the war in Gaza and curbing China’s military buildup. – Washington Post

The American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC) filed a lawsuit challenging as unconstitutional the Trump administration’s actions to deport international students and scholars who protest or express support for Palestinian rights. – Reuters

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers arrested a second student who participated in anti-Israel protests at Columbia University, after a third student opted to deport themselves from the U.S. – Fox News

President Donald Trump’s administration is withdrawing the nomination of Adam Boehler to be its top envoy for hostage issues, but he will continue to deal with those matters as a special government employee, according to the White House. – Bloomberg

Harvard Law School students voted to demand the university’s $53 billion endowment divest from “weapons, surveillance technology” and other companies tied to Israel, a symbolic vote that brings renewed attention to a protest movement that has drawn the Trump administration’s ire. – Bloomberg

Eugene Kontorovich writes: Mr. Trump says he wants to take back the Panama Canal, but Turtle Bay is closer. As his administration reviews the U.S. relationship with the U.N. and other international organizations, the headquarters agreement shouldn’t escape scrutiny. There may still be reason to host the U.N., but it need not be on the same terms as in 1947. If Mr. Trump is willing to use cancellation of the agreement as leverage, he can get a much better deal for both New York and the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

Charles Lipson writes: This kind of transparency limits the power of journalists, who often used to be the main pathway between government officials and the public. We are witnessing a wholesale change in how senior officials connect to voters and how journalists cover them. The Trump administration is the first to grasp this change and take advantage of it. The trillion-dollar question is whether their policies will work as well as their marketing. – Wall Street Journal

Cybersecurity

A London court hearing, reported to be Apple’s appeal against a British government order to create a “back door” to its encrypted cloud storage systems, was held in secret on Friday, with media not allowed to attend despite a formal request. – Reuters

Albania’s opposition Saturday protested the left-wing government’s decision to shut down TikTok, calling the move censorship ahead of May 11 parliamentary elections. – Associated Press

Andres Guadamuz writes: Yet the UK still seeks to promote a more innovation-friendly environment than that found on the European continent, aiming to attract AI companies and investment. The UK stands at the forefront of AI innovation, ranked third in the world after the US and China. By reforming its copyright legislation, it could outpace its EU neighbors on AI and could even challenge American dominance in the tech arena.  Going up against the country’s influential creative industries will be politically costly. But it is urgently needed to realize the UK’s AI ambitions. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Defense

The Pentagon has deployed a Navy destroyer on an unusual mission to bolster security at the southern U.S. border, defense officials said, dispatching a warship involved last year in combat in the Middle East to waters typically patrolled by the U.S. Coast Guard. – Washington Post

In the control room of the American Virginia class attack submarine USS Minnesota, off the Western Australian coast, sonar operators adjust to the chatter of dolphins in new waters where the U.S. submarine presence will soon grow significantly. – Reuters

The Defense Innovation Unit announced Friday it’s awarding contracts to four companies to prototype long-range, single-use drones that can launch quickly, carry a range of payloads and operate in low-bandwidth conditions. – Defense News

Stephen Peter Rosen writes: Discussions of U.S. defense posture should begin by asking not who is virtuous but what does the world look like now and what will it look like in the future. Given the dramatic shifts in the global economy in recent decades, as well as the transformation of nonnuclear weapons capabilities and the rise of space-based sensors, it is clear that the defense posture that the United States established 75 years ago is no longer appropriate or adequate. The United States should look beyond its current disputes with its allies and ask how it can better situate its forces to protect core U.S. national interests in a more dangerous world. – Foreign Affairs