Fdd's overnight brief

Russia

Officials from both Russia and Ukraine expressed cautious optimism Wednesday that peace talks were making progress toward ending almost three weeks of fighting across Ukraine. – Washington Post  

Ukrainian officials accused Russia on Wednesday of bombing a theater where hundreds of displaced families have sought refuge in the besieged port city of Mariupol, part of a string of intense attacks that continued even as diplomats said they were making progress in peace talks. – Washington Post 

The Russian government may be headed for its first foreign debt default since the Bolshevik Party shocked Western investors in 1918 by refusing to repay the borrowings of Czar Nicholas II. – Washington Post 

In 1990, about 30,000 Russians braved the January frost to line up in Moscow’s Pushkin Square. The payoff for the hourslong wait was the first taste of burgers and fries from the country’s inaugural McDonald’s restaurant. – Wall Street Journal 

Ukraine said its military had launched a counteroffensive in its capital, Kyiv, and other key cities, as President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the U.S. Congress to provide more weapons and increase economic pressure on Russia. – Wall Street Journal 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, addressing Congress on Wednesday from a capital being attacked by Russian artillery fire and missiles, delivered a stark new plea for American military aid, making a moral case to hundreds of gathered lawmakers that the world’s preeminent superpower must do more to prevent his nation’s destruction. – Washington Post 

When President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking to U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday, aired a video documenting the human toll of Russia’s assault on Ukraine, the images were so graphic they prompted an apology from a cable news anchor for having failed to warn viewers about what they were going to see. – Washington Post 

NATO defense ministers explored an ambitious new plan for the expansion of the alliance’s forces in Europe at a special meeting held in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss how to respond to the war in Ukraine without getting drawn into a wider conflict. – Washington Post 

In 36 days of fighting on Iwo Jima during World War II, nearly 7,000 Marines were killed. Now, 20 days after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invaded Ukraine, his military has already lost more soldiers, according to American intelligence estimates. – New York Times  

Ukraine’s digital officials and some tech-savvy expatriates in the United States have been calling for Apple and Google to cut Russia off from their app stores and for security company Cloudflare to stop protecting Pravda and Russian war propaganda sites from state-backed and activist hackers. – Washington Post 

Koch Industries, the American manufacturing giant that employs 122,000 people across the world, said Wednesday it would not exit its operations in Russia because doing so would put its “employees there at greater risk and do more harm than good.” – Washington Post 

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin may be the most well-known former intelligence officer to be a head of state. Up until his disastrous miscalculation invading Ukraine, conventional wisdom held that Putin’s professional background conferred on him a perspective rarely enjoyed by senior political figures in great powers. – Washington Post 

International outrage over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grew on Thursday as U.S. and Ukrainian officials said civilians waiting in line for bread and sheltering in a theatre had been killed by Russian forces. U.S. President Joe Biden called Russian leader Vladimir Putin a war criminal in comments the Kremlin said were “unforgivable” as it insisted the war in Ukraine was “going to plan” amid talk of compromise at peace talks. – Reuters 

The U.N. Security Council is due to vote on Friday on a Russian-drafted call for aid access and civilian protection in Ukraine, but diplomats say the measure is set to fail because it does not push for an end to the fighting or withdrawal of Russian troops. – Reuters 

The United States and its allies on Wednesday launched a multilateral task force to tackle Russian oligarchs, increasing cooperation on freezing assets as the West steps up pressure on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. – Reuters 

Despite three weeks of Russian bombardment, Ukraine has kept up a stiff defense of its cities by using Turkish-made drones to carry out pop-up attacks on the invaders with a lethal effectiveness that has surprised Western military experts. – Associated Press 

Vladimir Putin has vowed to raise Russia’s minimum wage and the salaries of all public sector workers as part of measures designed to cushion western economic sanctions triggered by his decision to wage war against Ukraine. – Financial Times 

Russia says a deal with Ukraine is looking more likely after the Ukrainian president said the country will likely not be admitted to NATO. – The Daily Beast 

Local Ukrainian staff of the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv are pleading with the U.S. government for help and accusing State Department officials of backtracking on promises of support as they scramble to survive or escape the Russian invasion. – Foreign Policy 

The U.S. Senate unanimously approved a resolution late Tuesday seeking investigations of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his regime for war crimes over the invasion of Ukraine.- Associated Press 

Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to five people briefed on the talks. – Financial Times 

Barring a breakthrough in slow-moving peace talks, Ukrainians’ mettle could be tested under the white heat of collective civilian punishment in ways it rarely has before. – Financial Times 

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, speaking alongside his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Wednesday, said the war in Ukraine must stop and Ankara would pursue diplomatic efforts to arrange a lasting ceasefire. – Reuters 

Editorial: The U.S. failed to deter Mr. Putin by merely threatening sanctions, then imposed sanctions only gradually after the invasion. […]It’s as if Mr. Biden is so wary of provoking Mr. Putin that he’s afraid what might happen if Ukraine won the war. The consequences will be far more dire for the U.S. if Mr. Putin conquers Ukraine. His troops will sit on NATO’s border and he’ll have shown the world he can invade nations as he wants despite global opposition. His ambitions won’t stop there. – Wall Street Journal 

Editorial: The key, then, is for the Biden administration to take bolder steps more quickly in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Zelensky and his people should not expect direct U.S. military engagement against Russia, but there are many options short of that deserving of Biden’s support. – Washington Examiner 

Editorial: Russia bears the ignominy of being the country with history’s longest default. The country finally paid off repudiated tsarist debt in 1996. It is not in Russia’s interest — or the world’s — for a repeat of such long-term damage. A non-negotiable first step to avoid such a fate must be to make peace. – Financial Times 

Zalmay Khalilzad writes: The current U.S. strategy has already failed Ukraine, but the worst is yet to come. Russia has been clumsy and has suffered for it, but there is no indication that Mr. Putin will back down and accept defeat. For the sake of the Ukrainian people, who have sacrificed so much already, the U.S. needs to do more to defend them and also work with Ukraine, Russia and others for a diplomatic settlement. – Wall Street Journal 

Daniel Henninger writes: In the rarest eclipse imaginable, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are in alignment on one thing: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shouldn’t be allowed to pull us into World War III. Sen. Marco Rubio has chipped in the same portentous thought. Beware wars to come is always a useful idea, but let’s hope America’s political leadership has a clearer view of what is happening in the here and now. – Wall Street Journal 

Henry Olsen writes: The United States should also prepare Ukraine for the long game. It should allow Ukrainians to come to America to begin training on U.S. weapons systems such as F-16s or the Patriot missile defense system, which would likely become the foundation for a postwar Ukrainian military. Ukrainian pilots and technicians cannot use sophisticated Western arms in this war because they need extensive training to employ. – Washington Post  

Hal Brands writes: Biden is correct that a conflict with Moscow would be horrible. But not the least of the paradoxes of this war is that taking U.S. intervention off the table entirely may tempt just the sort of Russian escalation that the president is, quite rightly, hoping to avoid. – Bloomberg 

Patty-Jane Geller writes: Nuclear weapons used to be considered a relic of the Cold War. Now, the West is learning that nuclear weapons are salient once more. NATO again must prepare to protect the West from use of the world’s most dangerous weapons. – FOX News 

Gregory Waters writes: A potential Syrian deployment to Ukraine does appear more likely now than it did two weeks ago. But it is important to be wary of the deluge of Syrian opposition — and now Ukrainian — rumors surrounding the topic. If Syrians are sent it will be a relatively small number of individuals, not entire military units; they will have little to no impact on the battlefield and they will have been lured to their death by lies and the mirage of financial stability. – Middle East Institute 

Rep. Michael Waltz writes: Should we fail to deter Putin from taking that next step, not only will the people of Ukraine continue to suffer mass atrocities, I fear China, North Korea and Iran will be next to push the bounds of their ruthlessness against sovereign neighbors. – FOX News 

James Jay Carafano writes: Putin will look for other ways to look powerful and threaten the West, to evade sanctions and rebuild his economy and to make himself a useful ally for China. Win, lose or draw, the West can’t drop its guard. Free Ukraine can also expect an international effort, on the level of the post-World War II Marshall Plan, to rapidly rebuild its shattered infrastructure, reintegrate displaced persons, and build up its depleted defenses. Such a plan would undoubtedly advance Ukraine’s hopes to see its nation one day whole, free, and prosperous. – FOX News 

Dalibor Rohac writes: In short, whether the president likes it or not, wars tend to upend domestic political dynamics. The administration will be judged both in the midterms and in 2024 not by whether it did the minimum necessary to help Ukraine and its embattled people while sticking with Biden’s campaign promise to keep the United States out of “forever wars” but whether it fully rose to the challenge of confronting Putin’s revanchism, which unchecked puts our entire system of alliances […]at risk. Here’s hoping Team Biden can choose wisely. – New York Post 

Alan Beattie writes: t’s not realistic to expect emerging markets en masse definitively to choose a European-American politico-economic camp over a Chinese one. The UN resolution condemning the invasion, although it passed overwhelmingly, received some significant abstentions in Africa and Asia, including India and South Africa as well as China itself. This isn’t a new cold war, or if it is then half the developing world will want to be in a new non-aligned movement. – Financial Times 

Tom Rollins writes: He is right: Russia is doing in Ukraine what it did for years in Syria. But that should be a source of reflection, an opportunity for renewed solidarity, among Europeans who now, whether through geographic proximity, news coverage, or just blinkered racism, can more fully appreciate the years of horror that Russia helped inflict on Syrians — and that Russia is now inflicting on Ukrainians. – Middle East Institute 

Israel

A year ago, Naftali Bennett was struggling for his political survival as Israel headed toward its fourth consecutive election. Today, the Israeli prime minister is at the forefront of global efforts to end the war in Ukraine. – Associated Press  

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was the lead mediator between Russia and Ukraine, according to three officials close to the talks, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. According to the officials, the talks that were mediated by Bennett led to the first draft of the ceasefire agreement which is currently being discussed. – Jerusalem Post 

Photos and personal documents disclosing information on Mossad director David Barnea and his family were leaked in a Telegram channel called “Open Hands” on Tuesday, Walla reported. – Jerusalem Post  

Could the State of Israel purchase Greek islands in the Mediterranean? According to attorney Avri Steiner, the islands would become another Iron Dome amidst increasing ballistic threats from Iran. – Jerusalem Post 

Russia has blocked Israeli news websites in its continuing ban of media outlets amid its ongoing war in Ukraine. – Jerusalem Post 

As Israeli mediation efforts continued during the third week of Russia’s war in Ukraine, US Congressman Ritchie Torres (D-NY) suggested that the Jewish state could not afford to make an “enemy” of Moscow, in view of regional security challenges and Russia’s presence at the ongoing talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. – Algemeiner 

A group of ten Jewish members of the US House of Representatives sent an open letter on Wednesday to the secretary-general of Amnesty International, denouncing comments by the head of the NGO’s US branch that rejected Israel’s right to exist, which the lawmakers described as symptomatic of Amnesty’s hostile attitude toward Israel. – Algemeiner   

A diplomatic thaw between Israel and Turkey has created challenges for Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, which counts on Ankara’s support, but could also offer it a more “trustworthy” middleman to deal with the Jewish state, experts say. – Agence France-Presse 

US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides on Tuesday revealed several of his initiatives aimed at improving the West Bank economy, while also insisting that Palestinians are ultimately most interested in self-determination and cannot be “bought off” with plans requiring them to forgo political sovereignty. – Times of Israel 

Sever Plocker writes: Regarding the claim of maintaining good ties with Putin for the sake of safe keeping the border with Syria, some would say that this is a needless concern. Russia’s military and technological capabilities in this region are limited, close to non-existent, and definitely not enough to threaten Israel. – Ynet 

Middle East & North Africa

The crisis over control of executive power in Libya could lead to instability and parallel governments, the U.N. political affairs chief told the Security Council on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Police have broken up a militant cell linked to Islamic State in the southern Tunisian city of Tataouine, the interior ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Israel and Egypt have agreed to expand their aviation ties with a new direct route between Tel Aviv and the Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheikh expected to launch in April, Israel’s prime minister said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

China

In a recent exchange between U.S. and Chinese experts, the Chinese side, citing minor shifts in language, insisted that Beijing was distancing itself from Vladimir Putin’s war. – Washington Post 

Federal prosecutors in Brooklyn have charged five people with acting on behalf of the Chinese secret police to stalk, spy on and harass U.S. residents critical of Beijing, officials announced Wednesday. – Washington Post  

Washington has expelled another state-owned Chinese phone carrier from the U.S. market over national security concerns amid rising tension with Beijing. – Associated Press 

President Joe Biden set out to finally complete the “pivot to Asia,” a long sought adjustment of U.S. foreign policy to better reflect the rise of America’s most significant military and economic competitor: China. – Associated Press 

Beijing is preparing to make a concession on the disclosure of Chinese audit information in an effort to resolve an impasse threatening more than $2tn of shares in US-listed Chinese companies. – Financial Times 

Asia

Taiwan held live fire drills in its northernmost territory on Wednesday, putting the spotlight on a remote island that is strategically located at a chokepoint near China – and potentially vulnerable to attack. – Reuters 

China’s government on Wednesday lambasted Taiwan’s humanitarian aid for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia as “taking advantage of other’s difficulties” after the island announced it was sending more funds donated by the public for refugees. – Reuters 

A court in Cambodia on Thursday convicted 21 people of treason and related charges for their nonviolent political opposition to the government several years ago. – Associated Press 

The main opposition organization in military-ruled Myanmar on Wednesday urged the United Nations Human Rights Council to act strongly to restore democracy in the Southeast Asian nation, saying that the international community should put sanctions and other pressures on the country’s generals. – Associated Press  

Africa

The U.N. Security Council extended the mandate for the 19,000-strong U.N. peacekeeping force in South Sudan for a year Tuesday, while demanding an immediate end to fighting in the country and political dialogue to advance a plan to prevent the world’s newest nation from returning to civil war. – Associated Press 

The ruling military junta in Mali has launched a procedure to suspend broadcasts by French state-funded international RFI radio and France 24 television, accusing the news outlets of reporting “false allegations” of abuse by the Malian army. – Reuters 

Angola’s kwanza is rallying because of an improving outlook for the economy of Africa’s second-biggest oil producer and the liberalization of its foreign-exchange regime, the nation’s central bank governor said. – Bloomberg 

United States

U.S. troops’ exit from Afghanistan and Somalia has limited the United States’ ability to conduct counterterrorism operations against groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, the American generals in charge of the Middle East and Africa told senators Tuesday. – Washington Post 

The U.S. customs agency says it is holding imported goods from Chinese sports brand Li Ning after an investigation indicated they were made by North Korean labor. – Associated Press 

Jonah Goldberg writes: The U.S. and our allies are doing nearly everything short of declaring a “hot war” on Russia for its immoral aggression against Ukraine. Things are not so tense with China, but there’s a broad consensus, particularly among Republicans, that “containing” China—to use a Cold War term—should become central to American foreign policy. And even many who disagree believe we are entering a new “Cold War” with China whether we want one or not. After all, sometimes wars, cold or hot, are not wars of choice. – The Dispatch