Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran has started enriching uranium at its undergroIran hasund Natanz plant with a second type of advanced centrifuge, the IR-4, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said in a report reviewed by Reuters on Tuesday, in a further breach of Tehran’s deal with major powers. – Reuters

France’s foreign minister said on Tuesday that efforts to revive nuclear talks with Iran were being held up by “tactical problems” and the domestic situation in Iran ahead of its presidential election in June. – Reuters 

Iran’s defense minister said on Tuesday that the country must be ready to defend itself against nuclear, biological and chemical attacks. – Times of Israel 

A U.S. return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran remains possible, but both sides need to be prepared to negotiate, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog suggested to European lawmakers on Tuesday. – Associated Press

Twelve House Democrats and twelve House Republicans sent a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken last week arguing that the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran did not sufficiently ensure that the Islamic Republic could never obtain a nuclear weapon. – Jerusalem Post

Danielle Pletka writes: So, is the Biden administration taking a measured approach to rejoining the JCPOA? Are we really a “long way” from returning to the nuclear deal? Or is the group that negotiated the deal in the first place, the group that opposed stronger sanctions on Iran, opposed the Suleimani killing, waved off Iranian regional behavior, ridiculed Trump’s talk of negotiating a better deal with Iran, defended a crackdown by the regime on its own people and otherwise looked away as Iran sought to dominate the Middle East, actually preparing for a wide-open, all access negotiation for an Iran deal plus? Is what the US Senate has heard in nominations hearings true? Or was all this sweet talk just, as Joe Cirincione hoped, a “confirmation tactic”? We’ll know soon enough. – The Dispatch 

Turkey

Senior diplomats from Greece and Turkey met in Athens on Tuesday in an effort to ease long-standing tensions between the two NATO members over disputed sea boundaries and related mineral rights. – Associated Press 

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia is seeking to buy armed unmanned aerial vehicles from Turkey, after years of tension between the two regional powers. – Reuters 

Michael Rubin writes: As for Cyprus, Turks and Turkish settlers in Cyprus are far more extremist in general than Cypriot Turks. This is one of the reasons why Erdoğan is playing demographic games in Cyprus and also trying to impose his ideological extremism. The only solution to this is ultimately to expel Turkish settlers and to raise the cost upon all Turks of Turkey’s continued occupation. […]Frankly, the only diplomatic discussion now should be how many billion dollars in compensation Turkey should pay to Cyprus for its crimes on the island. – Simerini 

Seth J. Frantzman writes: By setting up a challenge to Greece and Israel, Turkey may be preparing the way for increased tensions down the road with Cyprus, Egypt and France. These countries, along with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, appear to have increasingly shared interests. […]This means an underwater cable or gas pipeline may be symbolic of larger, changing dynamics. Turkey, for instance, is nonplussed that Saudi Arabia is also working with Greece. – Jerusalem Post

Iraq

Iran has again demanded that U.S. troops leave Syria in the interests of regional peace, even as militia attacks continue against American and allied targets across the border in Iraq. – Newsweek

Kyrgyzstan has brought back dozens of children from Iraq, becoming the latest Central Asian state to repatriate its citizens since thousands from the region went to fight with extremist groups in Iraq and Syria. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Ranj Alaaldin writes: Relying on its own intelligence community and that in Erbil and Baghdad, the administration should not be averse to formally and categorically attributing attacks by Iran-aligned groups to the regime in Tehran. Doing so is an important first step toward diminishing the illusion that these groups and their conduct cannot be tied to the regime, and will help mobilize international support aimed at deterring Iran from carrying out further proxy attacks to enhance its bargaining power during negotiations over its nuclear program. – Foreign Policy 

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran denied its involvement in a series of recent attacks against Iraq late Monday night. The attacks targeted US bases. […]It is unclear if the rockets were the usual Iranian-supplied 107mm that are used by pro-Iranian groups in Iraq to attack the US. A logistics convoy that supplies US forces was targeted on March 13 in Iraq. Another was targeted on March 11. This appears to be a systematic Iranian-backed campaign against the US in Iraq. Like the attacks on Saudi Arabia from Yemen, Iran is trying to set the region alight. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Tensions are rising in Western Sahara, a large strip of desert stretching along the Atlantic coast north of Mauritania. Formerly a Spanish colony, the area has been claimed for the past half-century by both Morocco and the independence-seeking Polisario Front, which each control part of it for now. In November, the Polisario ditched a 30-year cease-fire with Morocco and has since claimed daily attacks on Moroccan military personnel. – Bloomberg 

Indian state refiners are planning to cut oil imports from Saudi Arabia by about a quarter in May, in an escalating stand-off with Riyadh following OPEC’s decision to ignore calls from New Delhi to help the global economy with higher supply. – Reuters

The war in Yemen is “back in full force,” the United Nations mediator told the Security Council on Tuesday amid renewed attempts to get the warring parties to talk and U.N. warnings that the country is spiralling toward a massive famine. – Reuters

China

The United States punished 24 Chinese officials on Wednesday for undermining Hong Kong’s democratic freedoms, acting days before the first scheduled meeting of senior Chinese and American diplomats since President Biden took office. – New York Times 

Nine students, including six Americans, who attend New York University in Shanghai were detained by Chinese police in two separate incidents on the same night last week, university personnel and U.S. officials told The Washington Post. – Washington Post 

Mr. Xi’s climate-saving ambitions are a pillar of a plan for the country’s post-pandemic ascent that was endorsed by China’s Communist Party-controlled legislature days ago. The plan is designed to steer the country toward two signature commitments that Mr. Xi made last year. – New York Times

China has used the COVID-19 pandemic to rapidly expand its “corrosive, insidious influence” – from money laundering for transnational gangsters to using its own ships to illegally fish protected waters and benefit from illegal logging and mining – “in our neighborhood,” U.S. Southern Command’s top officer said Tuesday. – USNI News 

China told local media not to broadcast next month’s Oscars ceremony in real time and to play down coverage of the awards, according to people familiar with the matter, after a documentary on the Hong Kong protests was nominated and amid concern over the political views of Best Director contender Chloe Zhao. – Bloomberg 

The People’s Liberation Army Navy has conducted “intensive” combat exercises in three major seas surrounding the country, Chinese military channels reported this week. – Newsweek 

China has expressed its opposition to U.S.-led foreign policy developments in the Asia-Pacific as Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin landed in Tokyo early Tuesday. – Newsweek

The crackdown that followed the democracy movement in Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989 was but the latest fierce reaction to social unrest following a loosening of ideological control. Xi Jinping aims to cement CCP power over the population to prevent any expression of unhappiness with the current “harmonious socialist society.” The Xi personality cult being developed in China is a strategy to maintain absolute power while allowing ordinary citizens to savor a certain measure of material wellbeing and a great deal of government-sponsored national pride. – Middle East Media Research Institute   

Defending Guam is at the heart of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a massive effort pushed by Congress to add more military hardware to the Indo-Pacific area and work more closely with partners and allies. It’s all an effort to counter a more aggressive China, officials say. But China is unlikely to target Guam today — or maybe ever, says Larry Korb, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, who worked in the Pentagon under the Reagan administration. – NPR

John R. Bolton writes: This first high-level Washington-Beijing encounter will not resolve any major issues, and no one expects it to. If Blinken and Sullivan emphasize that Biden is developing a coherent strategy to resolutely oppose China’s objectionable behavior, that alone would be a vital difference from the past 12 years. If not, however, the China question will become an increasingly important focus of America’s domestic political debate, and one where Biden is unlikely to fare well. – Washington Post

Joseph Bosco writes: The Americans should tell Wang and Yang that the provocative legislation would be tantamount to a declaration of intent to wage war — not only against Taiwan but against the United States, as Taiwan’s “security partner” and primary defender. The law, if implemented, would be a mistake of catastrophic proportions for China’s communist government. – The Hill

Melinda Liu writes: For his part, Biden cannot afford to seem soft on China by relaxing Trump’s tough approach. Nor is Xi inclined to make concessions. His support at home has grown with the perception that Beijing has vanquished COVID-19 more quickly than many countries in the West. […]That suggests no dramatic breakthroughs are expected any time soon. Even this week’s meeting location has a whiff of carefully negotiated calibration about it. Anchorage is on U.S. soil, but it also happens to be closer to Beijing than to Washington. And Alaska’s glaciers are melting at a record rate due to climate change, silently reminding both sides it may be time to meet halfway. – Foreign Policy 

Matthew Brooker writes: As China remakes Hong Kong’s political system to remove the last vestiges of independent opposition, it is simultaneously engaged in an endeavor to make its narrative of events stick. The last thing authorities need is a Chinese-owned news outlet with global reach that continues to question whether, rather than “improving” Hong Kong’s democracy, Beijing is destroying it. – Bloomberg

Asia

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, standing in Tokyo, fired rhetorical salvos at Beijing in a symbolic opening act of the Biden administration’s diplomacy abroad. – Wall Street Journal 

Japan announced on 16 March that it is “resolved” to enhance its national defence capabilities and further strengthen its alliance with the United States amid what both countries described as “political, economic, military, and technological challenges” posed by China to both their alliance and the international community. – Jane’s 360 

At least two people protesting last month’s military coup were reported shot and killed by Myanmar security forces Tuesday after a morning of peaceful marches. – Associated Press

Chinese factories torched as mainland workers hunker down under martial law — Beijing is being pulled into the ulcerous crisis in Myanmar, an unravelling country it had carefully stitched into its big plans for Asia. – Agence France-Presse

But for top Biden administration officials huddling with allies in Asia this week, it’s at the top of the agenda as concerns grow that China intends to use force to keep what it considers a breakaway province from becoming independent and Washington has committed to defend. – Politico 

Kamran Bokhari writes: Kazakhstan can help Washington in shaping a post-U.S. Afghanistan, countering Iran’s nuclear ambition, and containing Turkey as it eyes the trans-Caspian region—where the Caucuses meet Central Asia.The White House can and should use Kazakhstan’s tradition of hosting multilateral diplomacy and Uzbekistan’s newly opened economy, to pursue diplomatic and economic interests across Eurasia. America’s foreign policy is at a historic moment as Beijing looms. Central Asia could be the key to help revive U.S. leadership in the world. – Wall Street Journal

Patrick M. Cronin writes: The defence challenge in Asia is enormous. The Joe Biden administration must preserve a credible force posture to defend against potential threats from North Korea, China and Russia. It must also transform a Cold War legacy force structure with advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, autonomous systems and quantum computing. It must do all this as it battles to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, turn an economic recession into more equitable growth and overcome deep political and racial divisions at home. – Hudson Institute 

Barbara Kelemen writes: And despite the government’s missteps in its initial handling of coronavirus, the vaccine-rollouts still offer an opportunity for Jokowi to rebrand himself and his administration in a more positive light. Whether this will be successful remains an open question, partly because of the doubts surrounding efficacy rates of the vaccines used for the rollout. Otherwise, the consequential impact of the Covid-19 could have more lasting and far-reaching impact on the country’s society and politics than initially expected. – Middle East Institute

Gordon Chang writes: Washington needs to do more than just talk to friends, however. For instance, it has yet to make good on its many promises to hold the Chinese accountable for clearly unacceptable — and deteriorating — behavior. There have been so many rounds of useless discussions between the two countries in the last three decades, so Xi will be impressed only if Biden takes action to defend American interests. – The Hill

Europe

Having cast off from the European Union, Britain wants to bind itself closer to the United States in a perilous world, according to a long-awaited blueprint for its post-Brexit foreign policy, released on Tuesday. – New York Times

Ukraine plans to nationalize a prominent aerospace manufacturer and cancel its acquisition by China, after the U.S. opposed the deal to keep critical defense technology out of Beijing’s hands. – Wall Street Journal 

President Biden is set for a virtual meeting with the Irish prime minister to mark St. Patrick’s Day, a meeting that will affirm his deep ties to the nation as tensions flare over the Brexit agreement. – Wall Street Journal

In a declaration of its aspiration to become “Global Britain,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday unveiled his government’s 10-year plan to boost international trade and deploy soft power around the world. – Washington Post

A report by U.K. lawmakers cites “compelling evidence” that major fashion, retail, media and technology companies that do significant business in Britain are complicit in the forced labor of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, China. – Bloomberg 

Therese Raphael writes: The other answer is political: Johnson’s goal is to rebuild Britain in a way that vindicates the decision to separate from Europe. Even after Brexit, a little punch-up with Europe has its political uses. I suspect a gradual realignment will happen over time, but neither side is in a hurry. In the meantime, Britain has set its sights elsewhere. – Bloomberg  

James Stavridis writes: It focused on Afghanistan, the Balkans, piracy and a number of other topics including NATO relations with Russia, which back then were still hopeful. So much has changed over the past decade, and clearly it is time to update it by including the “three C’s.” Jens Stoltenberg appears to be the right Viking at the helm. – Bloomberg

United States

The leaders of Russia and Iran last year ordered their governments to attempt to influence U.S. voters’ choices in the presidential election and undermine the public’s faith in American democracy, a U.S. intelligence assessment released Tuesday said. – Wall Street Journal 

A group of lawmakers aim to drastically increase funding for diplomatic and foreign aid, an opening salvo from Democrats to correct the “militarization” of U.S. foreign policy in recent decades. – Foreign Policy 

J.J. McCullough writes: There are plenty of problems that could be solved if Canadians were more informed of American realities, and plenty of benefit to be found in a continent where U.S.-Canadian relations are more open and integrated. […]But it would be nice if more Canadians who are so inclined could direct some of that energy toward helping combat anti-American ignorance in their own country and deepening cross-border ties of trade, labor and people — a few things the United States needs a lot more than lefty hot takes about its politics. – Washington Post

Defense

The British government laid out plans to increase its stockpile of nuclear weapons as part of a shift in defense policy that recognizes that the world order it helped forge in the wake of World War II is crumbling. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. Army has taken receipt of its light and medium Robotic Combat Vehicle (RCV) prototypes from industry teams and are putting them through the paces this year ahead of a major company-level soldier assessment in 2022. – Defense News

The Pentagon’s lead innovation office expanded its business accelerator to compete against “aggressive” foreign investment possibly tied to unfriendly governments and instead is courting U.S. investors to push its desired products to market. – C4ISRNET 

A debate between lawmakers over defense spending is brewing, as a group of progressive House members push for cuts to the defense budget while others argue for a boost to shipbuilding. – USNI News

Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville said, if the budget top line in future years either stays the same or falls, he doesn’t see the service’s end-strength numbers dropping, but he also doesn’t see them growing. – Defense News

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Pentagon’s top research arm, has a new leader. Stefanie Tompkins, President Joe Biden’s appointee, was sworn in Monday as DARPA director. She served 11 years in various roles at the agency, including a stint from 2017-2018 as acting deputy director. – C4ISRNET 

In order for the Department to deliver unmanned capability at the speed of technology in an environment of competing budget priorities, the DoN has created an Unmanned Campaign Plan that will create a collaborative and actionable effort, focused on delivering and sustaining manned-unmanned teaming for the future maritime fight. – USNI News 

The Army released a new strategy on how to operate in the Arctic, one that would set up headquarters and units capable of working across all domains and establish a stronger foothold in the region. – Defense News 

The following is the March 15, 2021 letter from the Maine and Mississippi congressional delegation to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks on Navy shipbuilding. The two naval shipyards that build large surface warships are in Maine and Mississippi. – USNI News 

Decommissioning ships that have viable service life at a faster rate than industry can build new ones is not how the Navy should grow the fleet, the vice chairwoman of the House Armed Services Committee said Monday. – USNI News 

After 20 years of continuous habitation, the International Space Station has entered its “Golden Age” and is abuzz with activity — thanks in large part to the return of US rocket launches via commercial partner SpaceX. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: With the U.S. seeking to hold down military expenditures and extricate its troops from long-running conflicts, drones are likely to become even more critical to the fight against terrorist threats. That’s all the more reason to bring them out of the shadows — and ensure their continued use remains consistent with the country’s values. – Bloomberg 

Blaine Pellicore and Nicholas Nelson write: The current selection of incentives and tools must be improved to maintain the shrinking capability gap in critical domains, such as space, over near-peer nations, such as China. The loss of these advantages would not only cause significant economic damage, but also pose a threat to U.S. national security in space and across all war-fighting domains that rely on space-enabled capabilities. – Defense News

Megan Eckstein writes: However, achieving this vision will require the services to buck the budgeting system in a way they haven’t had to before: they can’t just develop and buy new unmanned aircraft, surface vessels and underwater vehicles, but they’ll also need to invest in enablers like artificial intelligence and machine learning, networks, data standards, command and control systems and more – which will require constant focus from top leadership to ensure that these less tangible spending items don’t fall through the cracks in a platform-centric budget process. – USNI News