Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and former senior adviser, praised the Biden administration for calling “Iran’s bluff” on renewing nuclear talks, arguing that it helped show that the original 2015 deal no longer holds up. – Bloomberg

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday that the United States should lift sanctions and give guarantees that mistakes made by the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump will never be repeated. – Reuters

The United States should act quickly to revive Iran’s nuclear deal, because once Iran’s presidential election period kicks off it is unlikely much will happen until later this year, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said on Monday. – Reuters

Iran urged Britain on Monday to avoid “politicising” the legal process against British-Iranian aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliff, who faces a new charge of “propaganda against the system.” – Reuters

Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard on Monday inaugurated a new underground facility designated for missile storage, the country’s state TV reported. – Associated Press

After Amir Hekmati was released from Iranian custody in a 2016 deal trumpeted as a diplomatic breakthrough, he was declared eligible for $20 million in compensation from a special U.S. government fund. But payday never arrived, leaving Hekmati to wonder why. […]Newly filed court documents reviewed by The Associated Press reveal FBI suspicions that he traveled to Iran to sell classified secrets — not, as he says, to visit his grandmother. – Associated Press

Iran denied its involvement in a series of recent attacks against Iraq late Monday night. The attacks targeted US bases. – Jerusalem Post

Twelve House Democrats and twelve House Republicans sent a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken last week. They argued that the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran did not sufficiently ensure that the Islamic Republic could never obtain a nuclear weapon. – Jerusalem Post

Ilan Berman writes: Today, Iran’s opposition confronts a similar danger. Since late 2017, Iran has been buffeted by persistent protests that—though more modest in scope than 2009’s uprisings—have proven to be both resilient and broadly based. […]That’s a message the new campaign is seeking to convey to the Biden administration. The hope among its proponents, clearly, is for the White House to recognize what they already know: It is the Islamic Republic itself that is the primary obstacle to civilizational advancement in their home country. – Newsweek

Turkey

Turkey has sent a diplomatic note to Greece and Israel claiming that the two countries must seek “its permission before assuming work on a proposed undersea power cable in eastern Mediterranean waters,” according to reports in Ankara on Monday night. – Jerusalem Post

Pakistan has agreed to, yet again, extend a deal with Turkey for T129 Atak helicopters — a planned procurement riddled with delays. – Defense News

Asli Aydintasbas writes: But the European Union has leverage that the United States lacks: It is Turkey’s top trading partner and structurally tied to Turkey through Turkey’s bid to join the E.U. In coordination with the Biden administration, Europe could use that leverage to at least try to persuade Erdogan to honor European Court of Human Rights decisions[…]. Focusing on a few symbolic cases and trading economic incentives for improvement on human rights makes more sense than simply issuing self-righteous reports on abuses. – Washington Post

Yemen

U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s comments about supporting a Yemen free from foreign influence are “positive”, Houthi official Mohammed Ali al-Houthi said on Twitter on Monday. – Reuters

Authorities in southern Yemen on Sunday released a high-profile journalist whose six-month detention and mistreatment directly implicated the U.S. and its close partner, the United Arab Emirates. – Huffington Post

Hussein Ibish writes: The main challenge is convincing the Houthis to allow the Saudis to leave on reasonable terms. […]The conflict in Yemen has given Tehran plausible deniability while repeatedly striking at its main regional rival in its exposed underbelly.In theory, it shouldn’t be that difficult to incentivize the Houthis to come to terms. A political agreement would have to recognize and institutionalize the power they have accumulated over the past five years. – Bloomberg

Middle East & North Africa

Hundreds of thousands of Jordanians like Qraih are faced with incarceration because of draconian debt laws that violate international human rights law, according to the report published Tuesday by Human Rights Watch. – Associated Press

Libya’s first unified government in seven years was sworn in, as a political reconciliation that seeks to end almost a decade of conflict in the OPEC member gathers pace. – Bloomberg

Editorial: There are voices of alarm. Gen Joseph Aoun, the Christian army commander, last week all but ignored President Aoun’s (no relation) order to clear the roads of protesters and barricades, asking instead where the political class was taking the country. […]In their refusal to permit accountable government while pretending to negotiate with each other they are leading Lebanon, historically a strategic east-west crossroads on the Mediterranean, to failure as a state. – Financial Times

China

As President Biden devotes himself to dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, Republicans are striving to elevate China policy as a top issue, pressuring him to take an aggressive stance as Americans’ opinion toward the global rival grows more negative. – Wall Street Journal

China’s government has asked Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. BABA -0.69% to dispose of its media assets, as officials grow more concerned about the technology giant’s sway over public opinion in the country, according to people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

American financial giant Vanguard Group has suspended plans to launch a mutual-fund business in China. – Wall Street Journal

Signal appears to have been blocked in China, where the messaging app, one of few foreign platforms still accessible within the Great Firewall, was often used by dissidents, activists and journalists. – Washington Post

U.S. relations with China won’t improve until Beijing stops its economic coercion against America’s close regional ally, Australia, a senior aide to President Joe Biden told the Age newspaper. – Bloomberg

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said on Tuesday that Britain would like a positive relationship with China but not at the expense of upholding its values. – Reuters

Tim Culpan writes: Alibaba’s bottom line probably won’t suffer too much should a mandatory divestiture be enforced. […]One would think having too much money is a nice problem to have. It probably is, except in a place where the supply of something far more valuable — free speech — is in the hands of a single monopolist. – Bloomberg 

Tom Rogan writes: The broader issue China faces, here, is how these protests cut deeply at the Communist Party’s governance model. The fundamental basis of Xi Jinping’s regime is the idea that China’s people will tolerate authoritarianism as long as they benefit from expanding employment and social stability. Myanmar’s chaos undercuts that narrative and will, even if only peripherally, fuel Xi’s paranoia about the stability of his long-term rule. – Washington Examiner

Ben Dubow writes: While swaying public opinion on the election was not a main focus of Chinese international propaganda in 2020, messaging also failed at its three main objectives: deflecting blame for Covid, minimizing the backlash to the mass detention of Uyghurs, and obfuscating over Chinese maneuvers in Hong Kong. […]China has the resources to adapt to the Russian and Falun Gong model — picking a side, or both sides, and pumping out conspiracies and vitriol. Past underperformance is no guarantee of future failure. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Asia

Defense and foreign ministers from the United States and Japan are meeting Tuesday to discuss their shared worry over China’s growing territorial ambitions in the East and South China seas as the Biden administration tries to reassure key regional allies. – Associated Press

A leader of a new pro-Beijing political party said an overhaul of how Hong Kong picks its leaders could weaken property interests enough to enact policies to address the financial hub’s infamous housing issues. – Bloomberg

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday called for deeper economic and security ties with Japan, as he and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin seek to use their first trip abroad to strengthen Asian alliances in the face of China’s assertiveness. – Reuters

Britain wants to expand its influence among democratic nations in the Indo-Pacific region while preserving strong ties with the United States, a document laying out the country’s post-Brexit foreign policy priorities will say on Tuesday. – Reuters

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will visit India at the end of April in what will be his first major international trip after Britain’s exit from the European Union as part of efforts to boost UK opportunities in the region, his office said on Monday. – Reuters

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jalina Porter said on Monday the Myanmar military’s violence against protesters was “immoral and indefensible” after the country’s bloodiest day since the Feb. 1 coup. – Reuters

Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Myanmar has advised Taiwanese companies operating in the country to fly the island’s flag and hang signs stating they are from Taiwan to avoid being confused with China, after Chinese-financed factories were set ablaze. – Reuters

When President Joe Biden’s national security team prepares to meet their Chinese counterparts at a high-stakes summit in Alaska on Thursday, one of the most urgent issues they must tackle is Beijing’s growing threat to Taipei. – Politico

Editorial: Myanmar’s people are engaged in a desperate struggle to save their country from the restoration of a brutal and backward tyranny. The United States, which led the diplomatic campaign that brought about civilian rule and partly free elections, must now support the resistance with all of the economic leverage at its disposal — and press its European and Asian allies to do the same. – Washington Post

Walter Russell Mead writes: But if Americans haven’t always been noble or wise in their Pacific policies, they have always been engaged. That is unlikely to change today. The region is more central to U.S. prosperity and security than ever. Seeking a balanced and secure regional order—without war traps, Thucydidean or otherwise—is a challenging task. […]But if allies sometimes doubt U.S. wisdom, the American commitment to the region is so deeply grounded in history and the structure of U.S. interests that walking away from the region is the one thing Washington is least likely to do. – Wall Street Journal

Europe

The European Union announced on Monday that it is taking legal action against Britain for what it called a violation of a legal agreement over Brexit and Northern Ireland that was part of a trade pact forged between the two sides last year. – New York Times

Germany is betting the U.S. administration will take a pragmatic approach to the Nord Stream 2 project to ship Russian gas to Europe and is pushing for the pipeline’s completion in defiance of U.S. opposition, officials and diplomats said. – Reuters

The White House on Monday urged Britain and the European Union to preserve the Good Friday accord protecting peace in Northern Ireland after the EU launched legal action against Britain for changing trading arrangements Brussels says breach the Brexit divorce. – Reuters

The Northern Ireland protocol painstakingly negotiated between Britain and the European Union is the solution and not the problem for the province as it deals with the difficult fallout from Brexit, the EU’s envoy to the United Kingdom said. – Reuters

Swiss authorities on Monday confirmed a police raid at the home of a Swiss software engineer who took credit for helping to break into a U.S. security-camera company’s online networks, part of what the activist hacker cited as an effort to raise awareness about the dangers of mass surveillance. – Associated Press

Pinchas Goldschmidt writes: Europe must take notice of America and its actions, in fully allowing its Jewish population to freely practice their religion. This is the only way a country can guarantee the safety and continuation of its religious groups. We need to see positive action that reinforces religious life and practice, not just empty words. The “exodus” that Ms. McDonald predicts is not hyperbole, but reality. – Times of Israel

The Americas

President Joe Biden in his early days in office has vowed a dramatic reordering of U.S. foreign policy from his predecessor. Yet on some of the most difficult issues, he’s shown a preference for using the scalpel over the sledgehammer as he implements his own agenda and tries to move away from Trumpism. – Associated Press

A regional court in West Africa has ordered the immediate release of a Venezuelan businessman close to President Nicolás Maduro, finding that his arrest in Cape Verde on U.S. money laundering charges was unlawful. – Associated Press

U.S. officials have arrested and charged two men with assaulting U.S. Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick with bear spray during the Jan. 6 riot, but they do not know yet whether it caused the officer’s death. – Associated Press

Public opinion of China is becoming entrenched at a record low in Canada, with Beijing’s use of arbitrary detention and treatment of its minority Muslim population resonating strongly in a new poll. – Bloomberg

Enrique Krauze writes: Mr. Biden can check Mr. López Obrador’s autocratic tendencies and promote a moderate approach that might be of great benefit to the U.S.-Mexico relationship and to Mexicans. He has rightly stressed that unity is the path forward among neighbors. He said as much in his inaugural speech: “Let’s begin to listen to one another. To hear one another, see one another, show respect to one another.” – New York Times

Defense

The rolling release of a previously secret report and investigation of the 1963 loss of USS Thresher (SSN-593), the Navy’s worst submarine disaster, is providing new lessons for today’s sailors and shipbuilders, said the former submarine commander who brought suit to declassify the documents. – USNI News

The Coast Guard remains in big demand at home and overseas as it continues to modernize the service and develop its force, the service’s top officer said in an annual address last week. – USNI News

A guided-missile cruiser that underwent repairs for a fuel leak is back in port again for more work following a brief weekend underway, the service told USNI News. – USNI News

The Army is expected to release its new doctrine, one that describes how the service will operate in the future across air, land, sea, space and cyberspace, in summer 2022, Lt. Gen. D. Scott McKean, the director of the Army Futures and Concepts Center under Army Futures Command, told Defense News in a March 15 virtual event. – Defense News

The U.S. Department of Defense launched a new center to research integrating computing and communications across the military’s large networked systems. – C4ISRNET

Patty-Jane Geller and Rebeccah Heinrichs write: The United States has extended the flawed New START agreement with Russia for five years—receiving not a single reform for its agreement to extend. The New START extension does not equate to nuclear stability, and the U.S. should not expect it to moderate Russia’s aggressive behavior. […]The United States must not become lulled into a false sense of security offered by another five years of New START; instead, the Biden Administration, with Congress, must remain committed to ensuring the credibility of the U.S. nuclear deterrent and assurance of allies. – Heritage Foundation