Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israeli officials think Iran’s regime isn’t likely to fall soon Israeli military says it struck Basij checkpoints in Tehran Emboldened by oil shock, Iran’s leaders play diplomatic hardball Trump revels in killing of Iran's leaders as war nears two-week mark Iran not going to close Strait of Hormuz, Iran UN envoy says WSJ Editorial: Will Trump ‘fight to win’ in Iran? ISIS’s David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team: Post-attack assessment of precision strikes on the bunkered taleghan 2 facility Trump administration allows for Russian oil sales as energy prices soar U.S. Air Force refueling plane crashes in Iraq Ground down by war, Hezbollah's loyal base shows cracks How the Iran war unraveled the Gulf’s image as a luxurious safe haven Cuba pledges to release 51 prisoners amid U.S. pressureIn The News
Israel
Israeli officials now assess that Iran’s ruling regime is unlikely to fall in the immediate future, as Tehran’s battered rulers remain in control and conditions on the ground aren’t yet ripe for a popular uprising, people familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal
The Israeli military struck checkpoints in Tehran operated by the Basij, it said on Thursday, as part of an effort to weaken the rule of Iran’s clerical leaders. – Reuters
The Israeli military said on Thursday it had in recent days targeted a site used in the Iranian nuclear programme which is identified as “Taleghan”. – Reuters
Israeli cyber firm Onyx Security officially launched operations on Thursday after securing $40 million in initial funding, signalling continued investor interest in the country’s technology sector despite the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. – Reuters
The United States will intervene in the genocide case against Israel brought at the United Nations’ highest court by South Africa, arguing that the accusations are false and warning that a ruling against Israel could undermine international law. – Associated Press
Most Israeli Jews support Operation Roaring Lion, believing that the war with Iran will allow for regime change and the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, a new survey by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) showed. – Jerusalem Post
Some 58 people were wounded after a ballistic missile struck Israel during the third Iranian missile barrage targeted the country’s north on early Friday morning, Magen David Adom said in a statement. – Jerusalem Post
Palestinian media outlets reported Thursday that settlers graffitied and attempted to set fire overnight to a mosque in the village of Duma, near Nablus in the northern West Bank. – Times of Israel
The Israel Defense Forces on Thursday acknowledged that it was a mistake not to notify the public in advance about Hezbollah’s large rocket and drone attack on northern Israel the night prior, especially once Israel’s assessments of the planned barrage were leaked on social media and published by international media. – Times of Israel
Editorial: A contingency plan should already exist for moments when geopolitical events disrupt the skies. At the very least, the airline could invest some of its wartime profits in professional customer service that is capable of answering calls, explaining what is happening, and helping passengers find alternative solutions – or at least offering a sympathetic ear. While war may explain chaos in the skies, it should not excuse chaos on the ground. For a war-weary nation that depends heavily on air travel, Israel’s national carrier must prove it can serve the public in a crisis – not just profit during one. – Jerusalem Post
Iran
Arab diplomats trying to find a diplomatic path out of the war now being waged by the U.S. and Israel against Iran say Tehran, emboldened by its ability to rattle the global economy by choking oil shipments, has laid out steep preconditions for any return to talks. – Wall Street Journal
The International Energy Agency calls it “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” The Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran has led to the near-complete closure and partial mining of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest oil-tanker route. – Wall Street Journal
Early last week, Iran’s women’s soccer team stood on a field on Australia’s Gold Coast, a city on the country’s eastern seaboard, ready to play the first game in an international tournament. – Wall Street Journal
Hours after an American torpedo sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, the largest hospital in Galle, the port city closest to the disaster, began filling up. White ambulances with red crosses whizzed back and forth between the harbor and the hospital carrying the injured, while the dead were brought in later on trucks. – New York Times
U.S. President Donald Trump derided Iran’s leaders as “deranged scumbags” and said it was his great honor to kill them as the war in the Middle East approached the two-week mark on Friday with heavy exchanges of drone and missile strikes across the region. – Reuters
President Donald Trump said that he thinks new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, whose father, the former supreme leader, was killed on the first day of the U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran, is alive but “damaged.” – Reuters
Ships must coordinate with Iran’s navy to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s foreign ministry spokesperson said in comments carried by Mehr news agency on Thursday. – Reuters
A senior official from a Paris-based Iranian opposition group said on Thursday that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran would not topple the clerical leadership, arguing that only a popular uprising backed by internal resistance could do so. – Reuters
The U.S. Navy, perhaps with an international coalition, will escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz when it is militarily possible, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Sky News in an interview on Thursday. – Reuters
Shi’ite Muslim armed groups in Lebanon and Iraq are stepping up their role in the war with the U.S. and Israel, showing the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” can still wage attacks despite damage inflicted on the alliance during the Gaza conflict. – Reuters
Iran’s U.N. Ambassador said on Thursday Tehran was not going to close the Strait of Hormuz, but added that it was Iran’s right to preserve the security of the key shipping route. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the Iran soccer team was welcome to participate in the 2026 World Cup but that he believed it was not appropriate that they be there “for their own life and safety”. – Reuters
The U.N. refugee agency said on Thursday that up to 3.2 million people have been displaced inside Iran since the conflict began on February 28. – Reuters
Iranian officials on Thursday threatened the US and Israel with an unrelenting campaign across the Middle East. “While starting a war is easy, it cannot be won with a few tweets. We will not relent until making you sorry for this grave miscalculation,” Iranian security chief Ali Larijani wrote in a post on social media. – Arutz Sheva
Iran’s armed forces are facing acute supply shortages, rising desertions and deepening friction between the regular army (Artesh) and the Revolutionary Guards, according to informed sources who described a military system under growing strain as the war intensifies. – Iran International
Editorial: As on so much else, Mr. Trump is sending mixed messages about how long the war will last. One day he says the war is nearly won and won’t last more than a week or two. That tells Iran’s leaders they can wait him out. But on Wednesday in Kentucky, he told a rally, “We don’t want to leave early, do we? . . . We got to finish the job.” He added: “We don’t want to go back every two years.” On Thursday the President said, rightly in our view, that a short-term increase in oil and gasoline prices is worth eliminating Iran’s threat to the Middle East, the world economy and the U.S. Mr. Trump is also right that the U.S. shouldn’t fight wars we don’t intend to win. Winning now includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. – Wall Street Journal
Peter Navarro writes: If that happens, the benefits will extend far beyond the Middle East. Across the world economy, production costs will fall while a persistent drag on growth is removed and household purchasing power is strengthened. Confronting Iran’s destabilizing behavior is first and foremost a matter of national security. But it also promises to reduce the persistent geopolitical risk surrounding Persian Gulf energy flows and bring down the Iran Terror Premium. – Wall Street Journal
David Boies writes: If we believe that Iran presents a serious threat, we need to support the president on this issue. There’s plenty to disagree with him about, and we don’t need to like or admire him. But on Iran we should be on common ground. Not primarily because we want to reduce partisanship in foreign affairs—although that is conceivable. Not because the voters will reward us for a more measured response—although I hope they will. But because it is the right thing to do for our country, our children and the Democrat who will succeed Mr. Trump as president. – Wall Street Journal
James Stavridis writes: Again, the risk is high, and the decision would be dependent on the level of confidence in America’s intelligence and connections with Iranian dissidents. The Israelis appear to have deeply penetrated Iranian society, and the Iranian American diaspora has a significant pipeline into the restive civilian population. Iranian resisters need organization, money and perhaps weaponry, but involvement of special forces in support of intelligence operators could achieve it. Putting boots on the ground is always risky. No doubt US special forces are already planning these and other daring operations with high payoff. They are the best in the business, so nothing should be left off the table. – Bloomberg
Douglas Murray writes: There are those at home who understandably worry about aspects of the war. They are worried that the Iranian closure of the Straits of Hormuz is causing a spike in oil prices. But once this swift and tactical war is over those oil prices will come straight down again. Some people in Washington want hostilities to cease immediately. Others want them to stop before the operation is complete. Of course nobody wants this war to go on a day longer than necessary. But this job can’t be left half-finished. After all, a future US president might not have the resolve to stop the Mullah’s and their ambitions. Some day we’ll get another Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden. Trump rightly started this historic mission. And he’s the only person who will also be able to finish it. But on America’s terms. – New York Post
Sarri Singer writes: For those of us attacked by terrorists funded by Iran, it isn’t about politics: It’s about danger that never goes away – even if people pretend it isn’t there. Many may disagree with me and that is their right. But as someone who has carried the consequences of Iran’s policies in my body and mind for more than two decades, I can say this: Justice is rare and accountability is rarer still. And when it does come, even in this way, it matters. Not only for me, but for every victim who has been told, implicitly or explicitly, that the system that harmed them is simply a matter of international politics. – Jerusalem Post
Aaron Y. Zelin writes: Finally, the United States must safeguard its diplomatic facilities and economic interests amid increased threats. This will entail strengthening the security of allies around the world where Iran has previously plotted attacks. To prevent attacks on U.S. soil, the United States should push for increased information sharing between the FBI and local law enforcement on immediate threats from Sunni and Shia jihadists alike. However the conflicts in AfPak and Iran evolve, the United States must heed post-9/11 lessons learned related to terrorism and insurgency, even if the threat landscape might appear different today. Otherwise, it risks repeating mistakes made in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and elsewhere. – Washington Institute
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team write: Since May 2025, the site had been in the process of reconstruction, utilizing a new design intended to make it more hardened and resistant to conventional explosives. The building consisted of a reinforced steel frame and metal roof structure, which was subsequently covered in concrete, and buried under dirt (see Figure 6). During construction, satellite imagery showed the front cylindrical portion of what may have been a high explosive containment vessel (see Figure 7). The facility raised significant questions and concerns as to Iran’s future plans for it, given the history of the site and Iran’s past nuclear weapons development work there. – Institute for Science and International Security
Fatemeh Aman writes: Iran’s internal energy constraints now intersect directly with its regional policy commitments, making decisions about energy allocation increasingly political. Geography still matters. Iran remains a southern neighbor with access to warm water ports. But geography alone cannot sustain regional influence without the domestic capacity to generate reliable surplus energy. As Central Asia’s economic ties diversify and domestic pressures mount within Iran, the viability of Tehran’s regional role may depend less on where it sits on the map and more on what it can reliably deliver from within its own borders. In periods of war as well as peace, regional influence ultimately depends not only on geography but on the ability of domestic systems to sustain external commitments. – National Interest
Gerard Baker writes: If it’s true that the Iranian regime’s only goal is to survive then it may be that in those circumstances, the war can hardly be called a US victory. But give it time. Even in those circumstances an enfeebled and isolated Iran will have been taught that the US is no longer afraid to use overwhelming force to put it back in its box. That’s an outcome that is surely at least as plausible as an American defeat that too many in the West seem to regard with eager anticipation. – The Times
Russia and Ukraine
The Trump administration on Thursday night temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil shipments in an effort to calm markets and stem the economic fallout from its war on Iran, which has sent crude prices spiraling upward. – Washington Post
A Ukrainian missile strike inflicted heavy damage on a key plant supplying electronic components for the Russian war machine, Kyiv officials said. – Washington Post
The Ukrainian military will make available millions of drone videos and other battlefield data to Ukrainian companies and the firms of its allies to help train artificial intelligence models, Ukraine’s minister of defense, Mykhailo Fedorov, said in a statement on Thursday. – New York Times
A Moscow court on Thursday handed down life sentences to 15 men in connection with a 2024 massacre that killed at least 149 people at a concert hall, the deadliest terror attack in Russia in two decades. – New York Times
Shortly after Russia attacked a critical substation supplying power to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Oleksiy Brecht rushed to the scene on an urgent mission. – New York Times
The presidents of Romania and Ukraine signed a statement of intent on Thursday to produce Ukrainian defence systems including drones in Romania, they said after a meeting in Bucharest. – Reuters
Ukraine is awaiting White House approval for a major drone production agreement proposed by Kyiv last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday, as countries scramble to modernize their air defenses after the Iran war exposed shortcomings. – Associated Press
Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan write: Once again, the Kremlin seems to be moving away from ad-hoc operations in favor of a consistent policy. In Russian strategic thinking, the new law, once approved, would lead to allocating resources and personnel to the relevant agencies — special forces, including the spetsnaz and SSO, the special operations forces within the military — on a permanent basis, and preparing the ground for body snatching operations in countries that could be most active in detaining Russian officials. Today, the list of such countries is already quite long, ranging from the Baltic states to Poland, the United Kingdom, and France. In other words, Moscow is preparing not for a single rescue, but for a system. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Hezbollah
Israel needs to either completely destroy Hezbollah or create a buffer zone up to the Litani River, according to Golan Regional Council deputy chairman Ya’acov Selevan and Kfar Giladi resident Nissan Ze’evi. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF killed Abu Ali Riyan, Hezbollah’s ‘Radwan Force’ commander in southern Lebanon, amid strikes that killed 100 terrorists since the start of renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, the military announced on Thursday afternoon. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF published footage on Thursday filmed with a camera mounted on IDF troops raiding Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon – Arutz Sheva
Iraq
A U.S. refueling plane crashed in western Iraq Thursday, as the American military pressed its punishing air campaign against Iran. – Wall Street Journal
The Zefyros tanker was struck by a projectile overnight during a ship-to-ship transfer in Iraqi waters, its Greece-based manager said on Thursday. – Reuters
Iraq will keep crude oil production at around 1.4 million barrels per day, Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani was quoted as saying on Thursday, less than a third of the level before the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. – Reuters
At least six French soldiers were wounded in a drone attack targeting a joint Peshmerga-French base in the Makhmour area or Iraq, Erbil Governor Omed Koshnaw said a statement and a security source informed of the incident said on Thursday. – Reuters
Lebanon
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has engulfed Lebanon, pushing the beleaguered country to a new precipice as Israel expands a ferocious bombing campaign and threatens an invasion of south Lebanon in response to strikes by Hezbollah, Tehran’s most powerful proxy. – Washington Post
The Lebanese are exhausted. They are tired of frantically evacuating their homes and living in makeshift shelters for months on end. Tired of the thunderous booms of explosions echoing across the capital day and night. Tired of homes in the south being bombed and towns flattened. Tired of Hezbollah dragging Lebanon into wars on behalf of others — and of a government too weak to stop it. – New York Times
Israeli airstrikes hit two buildings in the heart of Beirut near the Lebanese government’s headquarters on Thursday, ramping up Israel’s offensive against Iran-backed Hezbollah and dragging Lebanon deeper into the Middle East war. – Reuters
Lebanon is now a co-equal primary front with Iran in the current war, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir said on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
Defense Minister Israel Katz said Thursday he has warned Lebanon that if it does not stop the Hezbollah terror group’s continuing rocket and drone attacks, Israel will “take the territory and do it ourselves.” – Times of Israel
Ron Ben-Yishai writes: Lebanon’s government and its Shiite community are under growing strain, and Israeli officials see Hezbollah’s decision as a possible turning point within what they describe as a broader regional axis war. That axis includes Iran, the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq. While those groups have not fully entered the confrontation, they have attempted to target U.S. bases across the Middle East. In addition to the Iranian and Lebanese fronts, Israel has also sent a warning to Syria’s leadership. Damascus was cautioned not to exploit the situation to harm the Druze population in the Suwayda region. According to Israeli officials, Israel is prepared for potential action against jihadist organizations operating inside Syria if necessary. – Ynet
Gulf States
The president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, strolled through the sprawling Dubai Mall on March 2, reassuring shoppers they had nothing to fear. – Wall Street Journal
Norsk Hydro NHY said its Qatari aluminum smelter would continue production at a reduced level rather than fully shutting down, as had been planned last week after gas supply was disrupted by Iranian attacks. – Wall Street Journal
Bloomberg has told employees based in the Gulf, including at its Dubai regional headquarters, they can temporarily relocate and work from outside the region, a spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday, as Iran carries out repeated attacks on Gulf cities. – Reuters
Two UAVs crashed in Oman, killing and wounding several, the state news agency announced on Friday. – Jerusalem Post
While Qatar publicly presents itself as cooperating with the United States, the English-language network Al Jazeera, which is affiliated with the Qatari regime, together with its digital arm AJ+, which reaches millions of viewers worldwide, has broadcast strongly anti-war messages and has directly and indirectly attacked US President Donald Trump and the U.S. administration. – Arutz Sheva
Rami Al Dabbas writes: If Saudi Arabia seeks to be viewed as a reliable ally of Washington, its regional policy will ultimately be judged by whether it consistently rejects extremist networks rather than selectively confronting them. Alliances built solely on short-term tactical calculations may deliver temporary advantages, but they can also empower the very ideological forces Western governments claim to oppose. For the United States and its partners, the lesson is clear: confronting regional instability requires more than opposing a single adversary. It requires a consistent approach toward all movements that exploit conflict to expand extremist influence across the Middle East and beyond. – Ynet
Middle East & North Africa
The war in the Middle East has caused the “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, as Iran stepped up its attacks on tankers in the region. – New York Times
Morocco is developing plans to repatriate its nationals who fought for Islamic State in Syria and were transferred by the United States into Iraqi detention, a senior security official said on Thursday. – Reuters
Air freight rates have risen by as much as 70% on some routes since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, data shows, as the conflict limits flights, blocks some ocean shipments and pushes up jet fuel costs. – Reuters
Korean Peninsula
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will host French President Emmanuel Macron for a state visit to South Korea between April 2 to 3, Lee’s office said. – Reuters
South Korean police investigating the 2024 Jeju Air crash said on Friday they had raided the transport ministry as part of a widening probe into whether regulatory lapses contributed to the disaster at Muan International Airport. – Reuters
North Korea accused Japan of heightening regional security risks by accelerating the deployment and development of long-range missiles, saying Tokyo’s military buildup amounted to preparations for a future attack, state media KCNA said on Friday. – Reuters
China
For much of this decade, China has routinely sent warplanes into the airspace around Taiwan, a near-daily display of military might and reminder of Beijing’s threat to seize the island by force. – Wall Street Journal
Before the war with Iran started, American military commanders redirected a carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the Middle East. This week, the Pentagon has been moving sophisticated air defenses from Asia to bolster protection against Iran’s drones and rockets. – New York Times
A new Chinese law on ethnic unity could give Beijing another legal basis to go after Taiwanese it views as separatists given language it contains on protecting China’s sovereignty and security, officials in Taipei say. – Reuters
Chinese mediation efforts, including a message from President Xi Jinping, have helped ease the worst fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, three Pakistani government officials said. – Reuters
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in France from March 15 to March 16, the Treasury Department said on Thursday as the two sides prepare for U.S. President Donald Trump to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of March. – Reuters
Some commercial ships near or in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf have declared themselves as China-linked since the Iran war began, marine traffic data show, as their operators apparently try to reduce risks of being targeted in attacks. – Associated Press
South Asia
In kitchens across India, the familiar blue flame of a gas stove symbolizes both modern convenience and successful policymaking. This week, that flame flickered. – New York Times
Pakistan has bombed the fuel depot of private airline Kam Air near Afghanistan’s Kandahar airport, the Taliban said on Friday, as the worst conflict in years between the South Asian neighbours flared again despite efforts to calm tensions. – Reuters
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on Thursday, where the two leaders discussed regional developments, the prime minister’s office said. – Reuters
A political party created just four years ago and led by an ex-rapper has swept Nepal’s parliamentary poll, results published by the electoral commission on Thursday showed. – Associated Press
Bangladesh’s police chief said Monday that diplomatic efforts are being made with India to arrange the handover of two suspects in the December killing of a Bangladeshi political activist that sparked protests across the country. – Associated Press
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he discussed the “serious situation in the region” with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, as New Delhi looks for ways to secure the safe passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. – Bloomberg
Parag Saxena writes: Discovery is built on institutions. India needs translational laboratories, accredited biobanks, adaptive trial networks and globally trusted evidence systems. The evolving EU-India Trade and Technology Council framework has made pharmaceutical and biotechnology collaboration a priority. India has population-scale genetics, computing talent, clinical diversity and advancing AI tools. If it builds the institutions to match these assets, its next great export will be manufactured drugs and discovery. – Wall Street Journal
Andy Mukherjee writes: India’s gas transformation was supposed to help modernize the economy, at least until more environmentally ambitious plans like green hydrogen could become practical solutions. Instead, the Iran war has exposed the most-populous nation as a vulnerable commuter on the world’s energy highway. It’s keeping the home fires burning by cannibalizing the very industries that provide much-needed employment to a restive youth. With the dough for the everyday dosa getting cold in the pan, how will India ever pitch itself to AI hyperscalers as a hot destination for their next energy-hungry data center? – Bloomberg
Mihir Sharma writes: What they used to call “engagement” with China may not have turned it into a constructive participant in the post-War global order; but active disengagement with the Global South, and with India in particular, will certainly create opponents and disruptors of that system. The most potent threat that India poses to the US and the West is the same as it always was: underperformance. Even a MAGA-driven Washington should worry not that its patronage will cause another China to emerge, but that in spite of its trickles of support neither India, nor any other country or grouping, will be able to balance China. – Bloomberg
Asia
Taiwan’s parliament authorised the government on Friday to sign U.S. agreements for four arms sales packages, after officials warned that Taipei would go to the back of the queue if it missed the deadline, sending the wrong message to Washington. – Reuters
Vietnam produced the largest trade surplus with the United States in January, overtaking both Mexico and China, latest official U.S. data shows, as its exports rose sharply while Chinese direct shipments to the United States fell. – Reuters
A major U.S. arms package for Taiwan that includes advanced interceptor missiles is ready for President Donald Trump’s approval and could be signed after his trip to China this month, sources briefed on the discussions said. – Reuters
Thailand’s Foreign Ministry has demanded an apology from Iran over damage caused to a Thai vessel that was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, which led to a fire and forced the crew to abandon ship. – Reuters
The widening conflict in the Middle East is expected to dominate discussions at Friday’s ASEAN economic ministers’ retreat, with foreign ministers also holding a virtual meeting on the same day to tackle a deepening crisis that has upended global markets. – Reuters
Singapore will engage with the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to seek further clarification on trade data and section 301 investigations, the country’s ministry of trade and industry said on Thursday. – Reuters
Taiwan has received an invitation from Eswatini for President Lai Ching-te to attend celebrations marking King Mswati III’s birthday and coronation anniversary, a potential overseas trip that would be Lai’s first in more than a year. – Bloomberg
Patrick Cronin and Nathaniel Uy write: The most secure path is for the Philippines to own resilience in its segment of the First Island Chain. Manila’s “Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept” provides that foundation: distributed access, hardened and redundant communications, rapid repair, and prepositioning calibrated for both wartime sustainment and non-kinetic contingencies such as disaster response. Institutionalized crisis consultation mechanisms can further reduce misperception and escalation risk. […] Geography ensures Philippine relevance. Politics will determine whether that relevance translates into durable deterrence. Denial only works if Manila can politically sustain the infrastructure required to make it credible. – War on the Rocks
Europe
Germany’s leading economic-research institutes on Thursday lowered their 2026 growth forecasts, warning of the impact on energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal
During a visit to the White House last year, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy bonded with President Trump over their shared opposition to “woke” ideologies and migration. After the meeting, Ms. Meloni, the only sitting European leader to attend Mr. Trump’s second presidential inauguration, said she was proud of their “privileged relationship.” – New York Times
Prosecutors at the International Criminal Court said on Thursday they had opened an investigation into whether the government of Belarus committed crimes that led to deportations of its opponents. – Reuters
A solution to security issues in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz can only be achieved diplomatically, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said on Thursday. – Reuters
British police said on Thursday they would use the River Thames as a barrier to separate pro-Iranian protesters from counterdemonstrators in central London this weekend in what they said was a unique way of preventing possible violent clashes. – Reuters
A drone found at a mine in western Poland is most likely one of the Russian military drones that entered Polish airspace in September, the state news agency PAP reported on Thursday, citing sources close to the defence ministry. – Reuters
European countries have stepped up their domestic security efforts over rising fears that Iran will try to orchestrate terror attacks on their soil, as the US-Israel war against the Islamic Republic continues to rage in the Middle East. – Agence France-Presse
World War II leader Winston Churchill is to be dropped from the UK £5 banknote in favor of a nature scene, sparking outrage from some lawmakers who said he should not be replaced by local fauna. – Agence France-Presse
Hungary’s government will declassify a national security report that the populist prime minister says will prove his main political challenger received illegal financing from Ukraine, a minister said Thursday. – Associated Press
Iranian diplomats in Denmark and Australia have applied for asylum in their host countries, Iran International reported Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter. – Jerusalem Post
Foreign Office staff attended a party at the Iranian embassy to celebrate the Islamic revolution just weeks after the regime massacred thousands of its own people. – The Telegraph
Anton Jäger writes: Despite some scattered statements of support, few of the continent’s leaders have joined Mr. Sánchez’s broader bid for autonomy. Compliance, after all, is more instinctual than declarations of independence for a generation that grew up in the age of American unipolarity. Crimes certainly abound in the year 2026. Yet, as Napoleon’s statesman knew, one can commit only so many blunders before one stumbles to defeat. – New York Times
Nicole Monette writes: Even so, his new Prime Minister since September, Sébastien Lecornu, has made progress in pushing a budget through despite the opposition. His more conciliatory budget plan involved a greater willingness to negotiate and compromise than his predecessors. After Bayrou’s departure, Lecornu, former armed forces minister and a strong supporter of Ukraine, was able to “secure the support of Socialist lawmakers through costly but targeted concessions” while bringing in approximately €7bn through higher taxes on some businesses. The plan will cut France’s deficit slightly to 5% of GDP in 2026 from 5.4%. The great unknown is the outcome of the 2027 presidential election, which could trigger early legislative elections. A rising French defense budget is very far from assured. – Center for European Policy Analysis
James Fennell writes: It’s also hard to overestimate how closely the Treasury is wedded to defense on the cheap. Money doesn’t solve everything, but the UK’s defenses can do nothing serious without more money. Spending 2.3% of GDP on defense is grossly inadequate. The dismal failure of the Royal Navy to either anticipate the requirement for or deliver a single fighting ship in response to a direct attack on British territory in Cyprus should signal the end of this complacent era. The question now is whether either British politicians or, more importantly, the British naval establishment has the leadership or organizational capacity to reverse a rot so deep that it has turned a once-proud service into a national embarrassment? – Center for European Policy Analysis
Richard Youngs writes: Combined, this all points to the need for a full-spectrum democratic resilience that can turn the tide against the radical right’s disquieting political illiberalism. For now, European attempts at democratic resilience are planted in shallow soil. The shock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s illiberal onslaught catalyzed some modest new EU democracy commitments in 2025, within and beyond Europe. However, much stronger political commitment, boldness, and innovation will be needed if these are to grow into a sturdier approach to defending and deepening European democracy. And this is not a parochial matter: Europe’s experience in democratic resilience will inform and condition efforts in other regions to push back against this era’s illiberal tide. – Foreign Policy
Africa
Senegal’s National Assembly late on Wednesday overwhelmingly passed a bill doubling the maximum prison term for same-sex sexual acts to 10 years and criminalising any efforts to promote homosexuality. – Reuters
Ghana intends to propose a United Nations resolution recognising transatlantic slavery as the “gravest crime in the history of humankind” and calling for reparations, and expects broad support despite resistance in Europe. – Reuters
Eswatini said it had received four more third-country deportees from the United States on Thursday, bringing the total to at least 19 as the Trump administration continued its crackdown on immigration. – Reuters
South Africa has intercepted four Chinese-flagged fishing vessels for unauthorised entry into its territorial waters, its fisheries minister said on Thursday. – Reuters
At least seventy people were killed following landslides that ripped through Ethiopia’s southern Gamo Zone earlier this week, regional officials said on Thursday, up from 52 reported earlier. – Reuters
Massive explosions caused by a drone strike at a market in the Darfur region near Sudan ’s border with Chad on Thursday killed four people and wounded over two dozen civilians, a medical group said. – Associated Press
The Americas
The exiled leader of Venezuela’s pro-democracy movement, María Corina Machado, received a warm White House reception days after announcing her decision to return home. – New York Times
A United Nations fact-finding mission said on Thursday that Venezuela’s “repressive state” remains fully operational following the removal of former President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces in early January. – Reuters
The governments of Venezuela and Colombia on Thursday announced the cancellation of a highly anticipated meeting between their presidents planned for the following day at their shared border. – Associated Press
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado on Thursday reiterated that the Trump administration remains a “fundamental ally” for the country’s democratic transition, even as Washington has repeatedly endorsed acting President Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s legitimate president. – Associated Press
The International Criminal Court is dropping an investigation into whether U.S. sanctions against Venezuela qualified as crimes against humanity, prosecutors said Thursday. – Associated Press
Jorge G. Castañeda writes: Today, such cooperation might seem out of reach, given just how divided the region is ideologically and geographically. But its countries must try. If they don’t, they will lose power over their own neighborhood’s future on other, perhaps more substantial topics. For example, in the great U.S.-Chinese rivalry, Latin American states will be unable to forge ties and relations that suit their interests. Instead, they will be forced to negotiate on an individual basis with Washington to determine what kind of Chinese presence in their countries is acceptable. Most important, the region will keep compounding its irrelevance in the world arena, despite large deposits of resources and great human talent. That is an outcome that every country in the hemisphere, no matter its leanings, should want to avoid. – Foreign Affairs
North America
Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada unveiled a multibillion-dollar plan on Thursday to significantly build up the country’s military capacity in the Arctic, including establishing new bases in a region where the country has had to rely on the United States to ensure its defense. – New York Times
The Cuban government said on Thursday that it was planning to release 51 prisoners in the coming days “in the spirit of good will and close, fluid relations with the Vatican,” which has been trying to broker talks between Cuba and the United States amid the increasingly tense standoff between the two nations. – New York Times
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez spoke by telephone to his counterparts from both China and Russia on Thursday, three days after U.S. President Donald Trump said the Communist island was in “deep trouble”. – Reuters
Toronto police said on Thursday they will increase their presence in the city this weekend during expected protests against the Iran war at an Al-Quds Day rally, citing heightened geopolitical tensions and several recent security incidents including shots fired at the U.S. Consulate. – Reuters
The foreign ministers from the Group of Seven will have detailed discussions on diplomatic efforts related to the war in Iran when they meet near Paris at a scheduled meeting at the end of March, Canada’s foreign minister said on Thursday. – Reuters
Canadian and Mexican officials on Thursday reaffirmed the importance of maintaining the trilateral free trade agreement between their countries and the U.S., amid signals from Washington it could be interested in bilateral deals. – Reuters
The United States has reopened its Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) office in the Dominican Republic’s capital, its embassy said on Thursday, a month after it closed over a corruption investigation involving a top agent. – Reuters
U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said Washington wants to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact but faces resistance from Canada, underscoring uncertainty as a mandatory July 1 review approaches. – Reuters
Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez said Thursday that the conflict in the Middle East and rising fuel costs could ultimately benefit the interoceanic waterway as global shippers adjust routes. – Associated Press
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday his government will spend billions on forward operating locations and infrastructure in the North to assert sovereignty over the increasingly contested region. – Associated Press
Guatemala’s newly selected Constitutional Court will have to work to regain the trust of Guatemalans disillusioned with a justice system that appears to serve the interests of few, experts said Thursday. – Associated Press
A record 280 political parties and counting had registered by Thursday’s deadline to participate in Haiti’s first general election in a decade, although not all will make the cut. – Associated Press
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum on Thursday downplayed the defeat of a constitutional reform proposal in the Congress, her first major legislative setback since taking office, saying there was a “Plan B” to make changes to the electoral system. – Associated Press
In light of a severe surge in antisemitic incidents occurring in less than a week – including shootings directed at the Temple Emanu-El synagogue in North York, Beth Avraham Yoseph in Thornhill, and Shaarei Shomayim in North York – Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli sent an urgent letter this week to the Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney. – Arutz Sheva
United States
Residents here were on edge on Thursday—sort of—with the supposed threat of Iranian drone attacks hanging over them just as Hollywood was preparing for its grandest occasion: the Oscars. – Wall Street Journal
Lawmakers boarded planes Thursday and headed home for the weekend, passing through security checkpoints manned by agents working without pay, as Democrats and Republicans blamed each other for the monthlong impasse over funding the Department of Homeland Security. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. Trade Representative’s office said late on Thursday it had begun Section 301 unfair trade practices probes of 60 economies in relation to what it called failures to take action on forced labor. – Reuters
Rights advocates note a rise in anti-Muslim, anti-Palestinian and antisemitic hate in the United States since the start of U.S. ally Israel’s war in Gaza following an October 7, 2023, attack by Palestinian Hamas militants. – Reuters
A complex tug-of-war inside the White House is driving U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting public statements on the course of the Iran war, as aides debate when and how to declare victory even as the conflict spreads across the Middle East. – Reuters
The State Department has authorized the use of up to $40 million in emergency funds to pay for evacuation charter flights for Americans to leave the Middle East because of disruptions in transportation caused by the Iran war. – Associated Press
President Donald Trump said he did not think it would be “appropriate” for the Iranian soccer team to attend this year’s World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, and cited safety concerns as a reason on Thursday while the countries remained embroiled in a war. – Associated Press
The ramming attack against a synagogue near Detroit, Michigan, on Thursday was the latest in a string of violent incidents targeting synagogues in the US and other countries. – Times of Israel
Authorities have identified the gunman involved in a shooting at Old Dominion University (ODU) in Norfolk, Virginia on Thursday morning, as Mohamed Bailor Jalloh, 36, from Sterling, Virginia, NBC News reported. – Arutz Sheva
Editorial: The Jones Act is a major reason, in addition to California’s anti-fossil fuel policies that have reduced in-state oil production and shuttered refineries. As we recently reported, some shippers are circumventing the Jones Act by routing gasoline from the Gulf Coast to California through a pit-stop in the Bahamas. That’s not fuel or cost efficient. Waiving the Jones Act could reduce oil shipping costs and fuel prices at the margin in the Northeast and on the West Coast. If President Trump wants to improve affordability, how about calling on Congress to repeal the law, which increases prices during peacetime too? – Wall Street Journal
Kimberley A. Strassel writes: Hormuz is causing disruptions, but those are likely to be short-lived. As the U.S. gains ground against Iran’s offensive capabilities, it can devote more assets to restoring shipping lanes. Mr. Wright on Thursday explained it as “short-term pain for the long-term gain” of denying Iran the ability “to hold the world hostage whenever it wants.” Indeed. The ability to do it at all—and weather the short term—will be thanks to a Trump team that had a clear-eyed, multifaceted, fossil-fuel energy plan. – Wall Street Journal
Samuel J. Abrams writes: If an antisemitism czar cannot confront that reality, then the office is emblematic by design and functionally useless. New York City is the largest Jewish city in the world outside Israel. It should be setting the national standard for confronting antisemitism with seriousness and resolve. Instead, it is offering rhetoric. The task is not to expand the table. The task is to ensure that Jewish New Yorkers receive what every citizen is owed in a constitutional republic: equal justice under the law. A city that cannot define antisemitism cannot fight it — and a city that cannot fight it is telling its Jews that equal justice is no longer guaranteed. – Algemeiner
Fern Sidman writes: The United States must make clear that alliance membership entails responsibilities as well as privileges. A government that refuses to uphold those responsibilities cannot expect to enjoy the benefits of partnership indefinitely. History teaches that alliances survive only when their members share not merely common interests but common values. When those values diverge, difficult decisions become unavoidable. Spain now stands at such a crossroads. If the Sánchez government continues to pursue a policy defined by anti-Americanism, hostility toward Israel, and obstruction of NATO’s mission, it will have chosen its path. And the United States must be prepared to respond accordingly. – Arutz Sheva
Cybersecurity
Stryker said a cyberattack related to the Iranian conflict is still disrupting its operations, including order processing, manufacturing and shipping. – Wall Street Journal
Poland has foiled a cyberattack on its nuclear research centre and is examining signs that Iran may be behind it, the government said on Thursday, cautioning the indicators might be a deliberate misdirection to hide the attackers’ true location. – Reuters
Pro-Iranian hackers are targeting sites in the Middle East and starting to stretch into the United States during the war, raising the risk of American defense contractors, power stations and water plants being swept into a wave of digital chaos that could expand if Tehran’s allies join the fray. – Associated Press
An Iranian hacker group known as “Handala” last week published information it claimed was taken from the mobile phone of an officer serving in the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit. According to IDF officials, the device was hacked about six months ago, but the information was only recently circulated on social media. Officials said it is also possible that another device belonging to a service member in the unit, or to one of its sections, was also breached. – Ynet
The number of searches about Americans conducted by the FBI in a controversial foreign intelligence database rose by roughly 35 percent in 2025, according to a letter by a senior agency official obtained by Recorded Future News. – The Record
Researchers discovered new Android malware capable of stealing banking credentials, tampering with cryptocurrency transactions and secretly mining digital currency on infected devices in Brazil. – The Record
The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned six people and two companies for their work supporting the North Korean IT worker scheme in multiple countries. – The Record
Two U.K. regulators on Thursday published warnings demanding that Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, YouTube and other large platforms used by children “take urgent steps” to integrate robust age assurance tools into their sites. – The Record
Defense
Emil Michael, the former Silicon Valley executive who has been the Pentagon’s point person in its dispute with artificial-intelligence company Anthropic, prides himself on negotiating deals that leave even the losers feeling good. – Wall Street Journal
Two U.S. sailors were treated for “non-life-threatening injuries” after a fire broke out Thursday on board the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, a centerpiece of Trump administration’s war against Iran, officials said. – Washington Post
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) on Thursday night released new footage showing the extent of damage to the Iranian Air Force under the Ayatollah regime. The video, shared on the official US military social media accounts, shows the moments of impact from precision missiles hitting three Iranian aircraft on the ground. – Arutz Sheva
The U.S. Navy and the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit chose Anduril to participate in the Combat Autonomous Maritime Platform Project, or CAMP program, to develop an extra-large unmanned underwater vessel. – Defense News
U.S. forces and partner nations trained to defend against swarms of maritime drones during exercise Cobra Gold 2026 in Thailand, according to a Tuesday announcement from defense company QinetiQ. – USNI News
The Pentagon’s supplemental funding request to replace weapons expended in Iran is expected to involve buying new types of equipment, not just legacy systems, the department’s chief financial officer said today. – Breaking Defense
The Army said Thursday that it identified two suspects in the case of four stolen drones from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, which went missing more than three months ago. The service’s law enforcement agency offered a $5,000 reward earlier this week for credible information leading to the arrest and conviction of those responsible for the theft. – DefenseScoop