Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Trump administration is turning its attention away from direct talks with Hamas and back to the main Gaza cease-fire negotiations in Qatar, after its discussions with the U.S.-designated terrorist group sparked concerns in Israel and produced little result. – Wall Street Journal

An Israeli air strike killed four Palestinians in Gaza on Tuesday, the territory’s civil emergency service said, as Arab mediators and the United States tried to hammer out differences between Hamas and Israel over a January 19 ceasefire agreement. – Reuters

Five Palestinians, including a 60-year-old woman, were killed by Israeli forces in Jenin over the past 24 hours, the Palestinian Authority said on Tuesday, adding to a growing toll from one of the largest operations seen in the West Bank in years. – Reuters

The High Court of Justice decided not to issue a temporary order to resume electricity to the Gaza Strip, Maariv reported on Tuesday evening. – Jerusalem Post

Laurie Cardoza-Moore, founder of Proclaiming Justice to the Nations (PJTN), has criticized conservative commentator Tucker Carlson following his recent interview with Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. She alleges that Carlson’s actions indicate a troubling shift toward antisemitic sentiments and alignment with nations known for controversial stances on Israel. – Jerusalem Post

Steve Witkoff, the U.S. envoy to the Middle East, is slated to arrive in Qatar on Wednesday in a bid to pressure representatives of Hamas and Israel to come to agreements. – Haaretz

Editorial: Last week Mr. Trump told Hamas to release all hostages immediately “or it is OVER for you.” But Hamas has had little reason to worry while being granted a new negotiating track and audiences with Mr. Boehler, a Trump envoy who entertained its ideas. To give Mr. Witkoff a chance, Israel is now allowing Hamas a free cease-fire. The least Mr. Trump can do is not undermine his envoy by sending others into the fray. – Wall Street Journal

Eli Lake and Michael Brendan Dougherty write: But is it coherent to back Israel while opposing aid to Ukraine? Are these two conflicts fundamentally different—or are both about a democracy’s right to defend its sovereignty against existential threats? If Israel is worthy of continued U.S. support against Hamas and Iran, why not Ukraine against Russia? – The Free Press

David Makovsky writes: Such issues are particularly sensitive now, when the chances of renewed warfare and the lives of the remaining hostages both hang in the balance. More broadly, foreign adversaries are always looking to exploit gaps between the United States and Israel. The Trump administration and Netanyahu’s government should therefore make sure that their warnings and actions do not create more such gaps, even rhetorically. – Washington Institute

Russia & Ukraine

The Trump administration said it would immediately lift a pause on intelligence sharing and military support to Ukraine following high-level talks with U.S. officials that led Kyiv to agree to a 30-day cease-fire. – Wall Street Journal

With America’s drone technology a disappointment on the battlefield, defense startups have joined forces with Ukrainian manufacturers to build better, war-proven aircraft for the U.S. military. – Wall Street Journal

Russian forces have begun an assault on the town of Sudzha, the main population center in the Kursk region that was captured by Ukraine last year, a top Russian commander said on Tuesday. The advance puts Moscow on the verge of ending the first invasion of Russian territory since World War II. – New York Times

As US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says, “the ball is now in Russia’s court”. This is a significant moment. The joint statement from the US and Ukraine, after a long day of talks in Jeddah, contains several key lines, perhaps none more important than this: “The United States will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace.” – BBC

Editorial: The bigger question is how Mr. Trump will persuade Mr. Putin to agree to peace terms that Ukraine can accept. Mr. Trump has been willing to bludgeon Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept a cease-fire without security guarantees. Mr. Putin has made no concessions of any kind to date. Everyone welcomes even a temporary end to the killing, but it will resume with a vengeance if Ukraine is unable to defend itself as Mr. Putin waits for his next opportunity to mount another assault. – Wall Street Journal

Tom Rogan writes: His statements of absolute confidence aside, Putin can ill afford new and severe economic strains amid key goods shortages and inflation rates running at 10%. Those sanctions threats underline why Putin will accept a European peacekeeping force if compelled. Russian history does not bode well for presidents who face mass social disorder. Trump has an opportunity now to seize the initiative for a just peace. He should do so by focusing on what Putin is actually willing to do, not what Putin says he might do. – Washington Examiner

Iraq

The Iraqi prime minister’s foreign affairs adviser, Farhad Alaaeldin, told a local Iraqi TV channel on Wednesday that the waiver guaranteed by the United States on importing Iranian gas has not been revoked and is still in effect. – Reuters

Iraq’s first-ever push to buy LNG comes as the US ended a sanction waiver for electricity imports from Iran amid President Donald Trump’s plans to tighten pressure on Tehran. – Bloomberg

U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs Adam Boehler traveled to Iraq last month to push for the release of Israeli-Russian researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who was kidnapped in Iraq nearly two years ago, three sources familiar with the matter said. – Reuters

The U.N. human rights office said on Tuesday it has received termination notices from the U.S. government for five of its projects, forcing it to shut some programmes including helping torture victims in Iraq. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan on Tuesday condemned Israel’s decision to cut its supply of electricity to a water desalination plant in the Gaza Strip, calling for the international community to take action as Israel attempts to pressure the Hamas terror group into releasing captives held there. – Agence France Presse

The International Monetary Fund approved the disbursement of $1.2 billion to Egypt following completion of the fourth review of the country’s $8 billion economic reform programme, after allowing Egypt to waive a primary budget surplus target. – Reuters

Yemen’s Houthis said on Tuesday they would resume attacks on Israeli ships passing through the Red and Arabian seas, the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden, ending a period of relative calm starting in January with the Gaza ceasefire. – Reuters

Shady ElGhazaly Harb writes: Such upheaval could worsen the ongoing turmoil, pushing an already war-torn region further into chaos, which would have global repercussions that could jeopardize economic stability worldwide. A key aspect of achieving this goal is maintaining the ceasefire in Gaza and rejecting any proposed plans for the annexation of the West Bank. The decisions made now will determine whether the region moves toward prosperity or chaos. – The Hill

Karen E. Young and Alice Baudin write: The Trump Administration may opt out of G7 multilateral efforts aimed at shared connectivity and development projects across the Middle East and Africa, but it is likely to encourage bilateral deal-making that generate returns either for a U.S. sovereign-backed fund, or those that provide services to U.S. extractive projects in Third World countries. It is an emergent trend, but one that the kingdom could use to its advantage in building out its global mining interests. – The National Interest

China

China is rapidly expanding ocean exploration in waters far beyond its shores, sending out a fleet of vessels whose research offers Beijing valuable military intelligence as it expands its naval reach and menaces U.S. allies. – Wall Street Journal

China will import even more off-exchange refined copper this year, according to analysts and traders, as output from the Congo booms and users look to alleviate shortages and head off a potential disruption to supplies of U.S. scrap. – Reuters

The third-ranked leader of China’s ruling Communist Party was absent on Tuesday from a key parliamentary session he had been due to open, with his stand-in attributing the absence to a respiratory infection. – Reuters

Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, and Aidan Powers-Riggs write: U.S. policymakers need to act quickly in coordination with allies and partners to address the economic and national security threats posed by China’s shipbuilding industry. This report offers a detailed policy roadmap for how Washington can disrupt China’s military-civil fusion strategy, erode China’s market dominance, and increase shipbuilding capacity within the United States and key partner countries. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Europe

With anger in Europe mounting over President Trump’s perceived abandonment of the continent, President Emmanuel Macron of France gathered the chiefs of staff of more than 30 armed forces on Tuesday to review the formation of a multinational peacekeeping force to monitor any cease-fire in Ukraine. – New York Times

The EU has announced it will impose trade “countermeasures” on €26bn (£22bn) worth of US goods in retaliation after Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, escalating a global trade war. – The Guardian

U.S. President Donald Trump will host NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte for a meeting in Washington on Thursday, the White House said on Tuesday. – Reuters

European Union finance ministers on Tuesday backed a proposal to use the flexibility in the bloc’s revised fiscal rules to spend more on defence without triggering disciplinary steps from Brussels for excessive borrowing, Poland said. – Reuters

The European Union wants to increase deportations and is opening the way for “return hubs” to be set up in third countries for rejected asylum-seekers, according to a new migration proposal unveiled Tuesday. – Associated Press

European Union countries must purchase military equipment made in Europe under a new loan program meant to help the continent provide for its own security, a top EU official said Tuesday, even though most of its defense materiel currently comes from U.S. suppliers. – Associated Press

The European Union has a message for the Trump administration: It will continue supporting Ukraine against Russia’s illegal invasion, step up humanitarian aid when others pull back, and boost global teamwork to address the world’s challenges. – Associated Press

Of all the European Union countries targeted for criticism by the Trump administration, none has attracted more vitriol than Romania.The cancellation of the east European nation’s presidential election in December was proof, in the eyes of US Vice President JD Vance, that European democracy is under threat. – Bloomberg

Greenland’s voters threw their weight behind a slower approach to independence, electing Demokraatit as the surprise winner in a general election overshadowed by Donald Trump’s plans to take over the Arctic Island. – Bloomberg

The German military continued its rearmament but still suffered from serious personnel shortages last year, a report presented to the country’s parliament on Tuesday showed. The paper also detailed the European power’s more assertive foreign military involvement, including its navy’s first-ever shots fired in a combat situation. – Defense News

As Europe races toward “strategic autonomy” in defense, Italian manufacturer Leonardo expects to generate new business in the region of €6 billion ($6.6 billion) should its home market and other European Union (EU) countries increase defense spending by a single GDP percentage point. – Breaking Defense

The Americas

Venezuela will stop receiving deportees from the US in response to President Donald Trump’s decision to revoke Chevron Corp’s license to operate in the South American country. – Bloomberg

Colombia’s newly appointed defense minister said Tuesday that he will focus on taking back territory lost to rebel groups that have forced thousands to flee their homes this year. – Associated Press

Guyana is considering a plan to export crude oil to the United States for refining and to bring back fuel for domestic supply and possibly for sale to nearby countries, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali said at a conference in Houston on Tuesday. – Reuters

United States

President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum went into effect on Wednesday, escalating America’s trade spats with global competitors, including close allies already reeling from his on-and-off approach to trade penalties. – New York Times

Discrimination and attacks against American Muslims and Arabs rose by 7.4% in 2024 due to heightened Islamophobia caused by U.S. ally Israel’s war in Gaza and the resulting college campus protests, a Muslim advocacy group said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A legal battle over a detained Columbia University student that has become a flashpoint of the Trump administration’s immigration policy will play out in federal court, with the U.S. government indicating on Tuesday it would oppose the Palestinian activist’s bid for release. – Reuters

As President Donald Trump seeks to end wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, his approach to both seems to boil down to giving the stronger party what it wants and pushing the weaker to accept it. – Associated Press

W.J. Hennigan writes: If Mr. Trump truly believes nuclear weapons should go, he must act swiftly to cut short the proliferation debates taking place in foreign capitals and move to reassure allies that American extended deterrence policy is unshakable. If he is successful, he will save himself — and future presidents — the anguish of watching allies around the world amass new arsenals, only to hope later that the United States has some say in whether future wars may turn life-or-death for us all. – New York Times

Brett D. Schaefer writes: The Trump administration should freeze all US payments to international organizations pending the outcome of the review, prohibit US funding to any international organization, agency, fund, program, or entity, announce the intent to reprogram funding from organizations found to be “contrary to the interests of the United States”, and announce that the US will seek adjustments to the UN scale of assessments for 2028. – American Enterprise Institute

Defense

The partner countries involved in the Lockheed Martin F-35 remain fully committed to the fighter jet, and there’s no sign the United States is changing course on the Joint Strike Fighter program, Dutch Minister of Defence Ruben Brekelmans said. – Defense News

The National Transportation and Safety Board has concluded that the separation distances allowed between helicopter and airplane traffic on the route where an Army helicopter and a commercial passenger jet collided midair on Jan. 29 near Washington “pose an intolerable risk to aviation safety,” according to its preliminary investigation report released Tuesday. – Defense News

Robert Peters writes: The United States must not wait for these adversaries to become so bold to think they can threaten the American homeland with missiles carrying nuclear weapons or other strategic payloads. The United States must field the defenses it needs to deter or defeat any kind of missile threat to the American homeland and those key nodes globally from any kind of missile threat—be they mixed missile salvos as seen in Ukraine and the Middle East or lower-escalation pathway attacks that seek to influence American decision-making and terrorize the American people. – Heritage Foundation

Christine Michienzi writes: To address this problem, the department and the defense industrial base should build out supply chain data while defense systems are under development and maintain databases as systems are upgraded. All data should be made available to any Defense Department program to eliminate duplication of effort and to minimize cost. Data should be accessed through a distributed ledger and blockchain system to ensure that all programs can use and cross-reference it. Only then can the Department of Defense be assured that U.S. adversaries are not hiding in the department’s supply chains. – War on the Rocks