Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel on Sunday said it was halting its supply of electricity to the Gaza Strip as part of efforts to coerce Hamas into releasing Israeli hostages and giving up its arms, though Israel currently supplies little power to the enclave. – Wall Street Journal

Israel will open an office under its Defense Ministry to manage the mass displacement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to other countries, far-right lawmakers said Sunday, as they pitched their mounting effort to depopulate the territory as being closely aligned with President Donald Trump’s own vision to “clean out” and redevelop the enclave. – Washington Post

The moment Ashraf Zughayer, a Hamas leader in Israeli prison, heard in October 2023 that Palestinian militants had taken hostages, he knew his life sentence for murdering six people in Tel Aviv could soon be wiped away, he said. – New York Times

Meetings between Hamas leaders and U.S. hostage negotiator Adam Boehler in recent days focused on the release of an American-Israeli dual national being held by the militant group in Gaza, a senior Hamas official told Reuters on Sunday. – Reuters

Israel and Hamas signaled on Saturday they were preparing for the next phase of ceasefire negotiations, as mediators pushed ahead with talks to extend the fragile 42-day truce that began in January. – Reuters

The foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy and Britain said on Saturday they supported an Arab-backed plan for the reconstruction of Gaza that would cost $53 billion and avoid displacing Palestinians from the enclave. – Reuters

A new Gaza ceasefire deal under which Israel would recover all hostages held by Hamas is possible, even within weeks, a US negotiator said after holding rare direct talks with the Palestinian militant group. – Bloomberg

Israel’s military on Sunday announced the appointment of a new spokesman to replace Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, who became the face of the country’s war effort and is due to step down. – Agence France Presse

Israel must leverage current US support while it remains strong and adopt a new strategic framework for confronting Hamas, Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur, deputy head of the Palestinian arena in the IDF Planning Directorate, said on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Qatar called for all Israeli nuclear facilities to be brought under the regulation of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and for Israel to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear state during a session of the IAEA in Vienna on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

Following President Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States will withdraw from the World Health Organization, Israeli lawmakers were set to meet on Monday to discuss the possibility of Israel following suit. – Times of Israel

Hamas on Friday published a video of hostage Matan Angrest begging to be set free, in an apparent effort by the terror group to mobilize Israeli public opinion in favor of continuing the ceasefire deal amid an impasse in negotiations. – Times of Israel

White House envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Doha on Tuesday evening in an effort to broker a new hostage-release and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, two U.S. officials said. – Axios

Editorial: In reality, however, an IDF spokesman must be someone the chief of staff fully trusts and works well with. It is not at all unusual for a new chief to appoint his own choice to that position. “The IDF did not fulfill its mission on October 7. We will not hide that, nor will we cover it up,” Zamir wrote in his first order to the troops on Thursday. “From here, we turn our heads in one direction – to victory and the decisive defeat of the enemy. This is our mission. This is our goal.” We wish him Godspeed in achieving it. – Jerusalem Post

Gil Murciano writes: Ultimately, participating in the critical process of regional reconstruction and the reshaping of Israel’s relationships with its neighbors demands a price that Israel’s current government finds unbearable – giving up its messianic dreams of annexation and population transfer. It requires a fundamental shift from being a force of destruction to becoming a partner in designing the Middle East’s future. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

An accelerating advance by Russian and North Korean forces is threatening Ukraine’s toehold in Kursk, the slice of Russian territory that Ukrainian officials had hoped would give them leverage in any peace talks. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump said he is “strongly considering” imposing far-reaching sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a peace agreement is reached in the war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

One week after Volodymyr Zelensky gambled on a confrontational strategy with President Donald Trump and wound up at the center of an explosive Oval Office meeting, the Ukrainian president is scrambling to restore ties with Washington as the White House ramps up pressure for a quick end to the war with Russia. – Washington Post

As it moves to transform U.S. relations with Russia, the Trump administration is talking with Moscow about readmitting potentially scores of Russian diplomats into the United States after years of expulsions. – New York Times

Russian strikes killed 20 people in the war-torn eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk on Friday night, a sign that Moscow is stepping up bombardments of cities critical for Ukrainian logistics and support and taking advantage of Washington’s decision to pause military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv. – New York Times

U.S. officials are planning to use Tuesday’s meeting with a Ukrainian delegation in Saudi Arabia in part to determine whether Ukraine is willing to make material concessions to Russia to end the war, according to two U.S. officials. – Reuters

A Ukrainian drone hit an industrial facility overnight in Russia’s Volga river region of Chuvashia, some 1,300 km (800 miles) from the border with Ukraine, the regional governor said on Sunday. – Reuters

Kyiv said on Friday it was asking Italy for more information about a proposal by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to extend NATO’s mutual defence umbrella to Ukraine without offering it alliance membership or sending peacekeeping troops. – Reuters

Russian forces attacked the town of Dobropillia in eastern Ukraine late on Friday, killing four people and injuring 18, the regional governor said. – Reuters 

The Kremlin said on Friday that Russia may need to act to respond to what it called European Union plans to militarise the bloc that cast Russia as its main adversary. – Reuters

Russia is willing to discuss a temporary truce in Ukraine provided there is progress toward a final peace settlement, according to people familiar with the matter in Moscow. – Bloomberg

Hal Brands writes: When the US concludes that some great international effort, usually a war, was a waste of time and effort, it usually resolves — temporarily — to never do that again. Trump is telling Americans that their support for an imperiled frontline state has been fruitless, just as challenges to a stable, secure world grow more severe. If he wins this argument, he won’t just endanger Ukraine and skew the accounting of America’s role in this crisis. He’ll have positioned America for passivity in the next crisis, too. – Bloomberg

Syria

Reports of a wave of killings in Syria’s coastal region sparked an international outcry, including a rebuke from the U.S., and further inflamed sectarian tensions in what has become the most serious crisis yet for the war-torn country’s new government. – Wall Street Journal

The gunfire began at dawn on Friday in the town of al-Haffa on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. At first, Wala, a 29-year-old resident of the town, leaped off her bed to the corner of the room in her first-floor apartment, flattening herself as the rat-a-tat of gunshots sounded outside her bedroom window. – New York Times

Israel’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday it would let Syrian Druze workers enter the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syrian territory, without saying when the government would start issuing permits. – Reuters

The commander of a Kurdish-led force in Syria said on Sunday the country’s interim president must hold the perpetrators of communal violence in Syria’s coastal areas to account, accusing Turkey-backed factions of being primarily behind the killings. – Reuters

Switzerland’s Federal Council said on Friday it had decided to impose an additional freeze on the assets of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his entourage. – Reuters

Syria’s top diplomat and his counterparts from neighboring countries Sunday called for the lifting of Western-led sanctions on Syria and post-war reconciliation. – Associated Press

Syria’s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has formed a committee to investigate the violence in some cities that killed hundreds of civilians in recent days and sparked condemnation from the international community. – Bloomberg

The Israeli military said Saturday it had carried out several “targeted raids” in southern Syria over the past week while issuing footage from its operations. – Times of Israel

Lebanon

Lebanon’s reconstruction and recovery needs following the conflict with Israel are estimated at $11 billion, a report issued by the World Bank concluded on Friday. – Reuters

On a lush green hilltop on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, Carmela Keren Yakuti proudly shows off her home in Dovev, which she fled more than 16 months ago over fears of a Hezbollah attack. – Agence France Presse

Israel’s army said it conducted strikes on “military sites” belonging to the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in south Lebanon on Friday, as Lebanese media reported a series of Israeli strikes in the south. – Agence France Presse

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, on Saturday was released from jail, where he was being held while he faces a criminal trial on charges of insurrection for declaring martial law in December. – Washington Post

North Korea said on Saturday that it was building its first nuclear-powered submarine to enhance its nuclear weapons abilities, and the state news media showed the nation’s leader, Kim Jong-un, inspecting part of what appeared to be a new submarine larger than any owned by the country. – New York Times

South Korean prosecutors will pursue President Yoon Suk Yeol’s conviction for insurrection despite a court decision ordering the release of the impeached leader from prison, the head of the prosecutors’ office said on Monday. – Reuters

Police will be out in force, and subway stations and at least one school will be closed over safety concerns when South Korea’s Constitutional Court rules whether to oust or reinstate impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol. – Reuters

South Korea’s acting president on Monday ordered authorities to actively communicate with the U.S. administration to resolve any misunderstanding over tariffs, after U.S. President Donald Trump recently singled out South Korea for applying high tariffs. – Reuters

South Asia

Sri Lanka and Japan signed agreements on Friday to restructure $2.5 billion worth of debt, completing two years of talks that will assist the island nation in getting back on its feet after a severe financial crisis. – Reuters

India needs to buy more defence products and lower its tariffs on U.S. products for the two countries to be able to sign a “grand” bilateral deal, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told India Today television on Friday. – Reuters

India has signed a $248 million contract with Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport to acquire more powerful engines for its Soviet-era battle tanks, the Indian Defence Ministry said on Friday. – Reuters

Myanmar’s military government will hold a general election in December 2025 or January 2026, state media said on Saturday, citing the junta chief, who provided the first specific time frame for the long-promised polls in the war-torn nation. – Reuters

Police in Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka used tear gas and sound grenades on Friday to disperse hundreds of members of the banned militant group Hizb-ut-Tahrir seeking to march to demand the country’s secular democracy be replaced by an Islamic caliphate. – Reuters

Thousands of supporters greeted Nepal’s former king in capital Kathmandu on Sunday and demanded his abolished monarchy be reinstated and Hinduism brought back as a state religion. – Associated Press

Police in southern India said Saturday that they arrested two men in connection with allegations of gang rape of an Israeli and a local woman. – Associated Press

Europe

Hedge-fund honchos entered this year betting big on America, expecting President Trump’s promised tax cuts and deregulation would lift everything from U.S. stocks to the dollar. Turns out, an old-school industry in Europe was really the place to be. – Wall Street Journal

Just after midnight on Dec. 26, a team of Finnish commandos dropped from two helicopters onto the deck of a ramshackle Russian oil tanker in the Baltic Sea and ordered the ship’s crew to sail into port. – Wall Street Journal 

In a forest in Latvia, just 150 miles from the Russian border, Swedish soldiers crouch among the trees, their faces smeared in green and black paint, posing as invaders against a combined force of Canadian, Spanish and Italian soldiers, among others. – Washington Post

Britain, long past its days of empire, has continued to congratulate itself as a superpower in one global area: foreign aid. – Washington Post

Calin Georgescu, an ultranationalist candidate who won the first round of Romania’s abruptly aborted presidential election last year, has been barred from competing in a do-over vote scheduled for May, sparking a small but violent protest by his supporters in Bucharest, the Romanian capital. – New York Times

The airport in Hamburg, Germany’s second largest city, said it had canceled all flights on Sunday because of a one-day strike over pay by ground staff called by a labor union that started its action earlier than expected with little warning. – New York Times

Three Bulgarians have been found guilty of spying for Russia in Britain and across continental Europe as part of one of the largest Russian espionage rings ever uncovered by the British police. – New York Times

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Poland’s foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski of “making things up” and suggested on Sunday he was ungrateful, in a strong rebuke after Sikorski said Ukraine may need an alternative to the Starlink satellite service. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a call with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot about “bringing an end to the Russia-Ukraine war,” the State Department said on Friday. – Reuters

Greece’s centre-right government on Friday survived a no-confidence vote over a deadly 2023 train crash, as protests flared demanding political accountability over Greece’s worst rail disaster. – Reuters

The Kremlin supports Serbia’s authorities as they face growing anti-government protests, President Aleksandar Vucic said on Friday following a phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. – Reuters

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that even as “decades-old certainties are crumbling” in Europe’s relations with other countries, there’s no reason to de-risk the bloc’s relationship with the US. – Bloomberg

Greenlanders will trudge across ice and snow Tuesday to cast their ballots in an election that could prove to be one of the most consequential in the Arctic island’s history. – Politico

Editorial: It has among the bloc’s lowest sovereign-debt burdens, and a lot of catching up to do. By one estimate, a program of about €500 billion, spread over a decade, could increase potential output enough to actually reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio. Crucially, the EU’s most important member has demonstrated the resolve to meet pressing challenges to global peace and prosperity — to counter a belligerent Russia, squarely address economic ills and give people something better than extremism to believe in. It’s an excellent start. – Bloomberg

Lee Hockstader writes: But at last they amplified to deafening decibels the memo Europeans had previously refused to read — the one bearing the message that the Western alliance, even the traditional idea of the West itself as a club of nations bound by values and ideals, no longer exists. The United States has abdicated its position as leader of the free world. That job is currently open. Europe, poorly prepared for the role, needs to assume it anyway. – Washington Post

Imran Khalid writes: The second and equally challenging task is to take the lead on European security in the face of a U.S. administration that seems prepared to put the continent at risk with its overtures to Putin’s Russia. How his new government manages to cope with these twin challenges will define Germany, its prosperity and European security for many decades to come. It may also redefine Europe as an entity quite distinct from its alliance with the U.S. and at the forefront of efforts to fortify liberal democracies. – The Hill

Maciej Bukowski writes: This recalibration calls for forging stronger ties with regional partners such as the Baltic-Nordic Eight group of nations, Ukraine, and Turkey, as well as rethinking alliances with the United Kingdom and France. Warsaw can no longer afford to pretend. A great reshuffling of the international order is underway, and Poland must seize the moment. It would be nice, reassuring even, to see Poland’s political leadership come together and agree on this at least. – Center for European Policy Analysis

The Americas

President Trump’s plan for mass deportations faces a new hurdle: The Venezuelan government has privately warned the administration that it won’t accept migrants after the White House rescinded Chevron’s license to pump oil there, said people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

Ecuador President Daniel Noboa said on Sunday that his country will not receive deported migrants of other nationalities, and criticized Venezuela’s president for allegedly rejecting flights of Venezuelan migrants deported from the United States. – Reuters

Haitian economist and former central bank chief Fritz Alphonse Jean took over the rotating presidency of Haiti’s transitional presidential council on Friday, taking the top executive role in a country battling a devastating conflict with armed gangs. – Reuters

Colombia’s Ministry of Defense said Saturday that 29 members of the country’s armed forces who had been kidnapped by civilians were released. – Reuters

Panama will issue temporary permits for some migrants recently sent from the U.S. allowing them to stay in the Central American nation for up to 90 days if they do not wish to return to their home countries for security reasons, an official said on Friday. – Reuters

Voters in Honduras will select candidates from the three main parties Sunday to compete in November’s general election for the presidency in a country that remains deeply polarized. But many are skeptical of leaders from the left and right who have failed to deliver on improving security and the economy. – Associated Press

Arturo McFields writes: The closeness between these companies and China’s military sector and communist party is a real problem. Meanwhile, although the “peace through strength” approach is showing great results, it is also necessary to build upon trust, transparency and teamwork. The U.S. and its neighbors must work together, not only based on relationships of power but also on the power of strong relations. This is the right time to do so. – The Hill

United States

President Trump has demonstrated over the past week that he’s determined to get adversaries and allies to the negotiating table, whether it is bullying Ukraine by cutting off the flow of weapons assistance, engaging in direct talks with Hamas, or writing to Iran’s leadership. – Wall Street Journal

Pro-Palestinian activists vandalized President Donald Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland in response to the president’s proposal that the United States “take over” the Gaza Strip and displace its residents. – Washington Post

Evangelical Christian leaders who delivered votes to President Trump are now pressing him to declare that Israel can claim ownership of the West Bank, based on a promise God made to the Jews in the Bible. – New York Times

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the United States had “just about” ended a suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine, and that he expects good results out of upcoming talks with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia. – Reuters

Hungary and the United States will agree on an economic cooperation package that will help the Hungarian economy and could offset the effect of possible U.S. tariffs, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Saturday. – Reuters

The U.S. government is studying ways it could ease sanctions on Russia’s energy sector as part of a broad plan to enable Washington to deliver swift relief if Moscow agrees to end the Ukraine war, according to two sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that his country is stopping all federal funding to South Africa, but South Africa responded by saying it would not engage in “megaphone diplomacy”. – Reuters

The US has rejected a Canadian proposal to establish a task force that would tackle Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers, as the Trump administration re-evaluates its positions across multilateral organizations, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Federal immigration authorities arrested a Palestinian activist Saturday who played a prominent role in Columbia University’s protests against Israel, a significant escalation in the Trump administration’s pledge to detain and deport student activists. – Associated Press

Philip Hamburger writes: This approach would have to be supplemented with rules against lending IDs, requiring the prompt reporting of missing IDs, and so forth. It would have the virtue, however, of avoiding the need to carve out exemptions. The larger point is that universities need to take civil-rights laws seriously. Schools that permit obstructive, bullying, and sometimes violent antisemites to hide their identities are depriving Jews of equal protection in violation of the Ku Klux Klan Act and Title VI. – Wall Street Journal

Eli Lake writes: One administration official said the Pakistanis were cooperative after the U.S. provided detailed intelligence on his whereabouts. The suspect’s name is Mohammad Sharifullah, but he was known to the spies and soldiers tracking him as “Jafar.” His capture was a stroke of extraordinary timing. In his speech to Congress on Tuesday, Trump himself announced that the terrorist was in U.S. custody. For Gorka, it was an opportunity to cross off the top name from a whiteboard that lists his counterterrorism team’s top priorities. – The Free Press

Defense

American defense companies have increased their dominance of the global arms trade, buoyed by European nations snapping up U.S. jet fighters and missiles. The U.S. accounted for 43% of global weapons exports over the past five years, up from 35% in the previous five-year period, according to new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank. – Wall Street Journal

When the COVID-19 pandemic paralyzed the world, the U.S. military was forced to conduct hundreds of emergency medical evacuations out of combat zones, pause critical training evolutions, and redirect vast amounts of medical and logistics resources toward fighting the mysterious and deadly disease. – Defense News

John Kitch writes: Trump and his team are right to recognize Panama’s strategic importance, but they are wrong in how they are approaching the issue. A better strategy would be for the United States to offer increased engineering support, funds to modernize the canal, and a public declaration of thanks to Panama for working with the United States on an important project. Doing so would not show weakness and it would not encourage Mulino to move in China’s direction. Instead, it would be a low-cost way for the United States to exert influence in one of the most strategically important places on the map, while building goodwill with a leader who will be indebted to the United States going forward. – National Interest