Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine’s military made gains against Russian forces in multiple locations along the eastern front, the country’s deputy defense minister said Monday, as an increasing cadence in combat operations raised speculation that the much-anticipated counteroffensive was finally imminent. – Washington Post

A faked declaration of martial law and military mobilization by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia aired Monday on a number of Russian radio and television networks, an incident that the Kremlin described as a “hack.” – New York Times

During the first year of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Biden administration fretted constantly that if Kyiv hit back inside Russian borders, President Vladimir V. Putin would retaliate against not only Ukraine, but also possibly NATO and the West. – New York Times

A video posted by the leader of Russia’s Wagner paramilitary group showed the captured commander of a mechanized infantry brigade confessing to firing on Russian forces and apologizing for his actions. – Wall Street Journal

A torrent of water burst through a gaping hole in a dam on the Dnipro River that separates Russian and Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine on Tuesday, flooding a swathe of the war zone and forcing villagers to flee. – Reuters

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that U.S.-built F-16 fighter jets can ‘accommodate’ nuclear weapons and warned that supplying Kyiv with them will escalate the conflict further. – Reuters

Russia launched a new wave of overnight air strikes on Kyiv, with officials at the Ukrainian capital saying that air defence systems downed more than 20 cruise missiles on their approach. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy praised Ukrainian troops on Monday after his top ground commander said the country’s forces continued to move forward near the long-contested city of Bakhmut in northern Donetsk. – Reuters

Ukraine and Russia face off at the top United Nations court on Tuesday over Moscow’s alleged backing of pro-Russian separatists blamed for the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014. – Reuters

The Serbian president said he is not opposed to his country selling ammunition to intermediaries who ship it to Ukraine, in a sign that Russia’s staunch Balkan ally is pivoting westwards. – Financial Times

Whether this week’s apparent escalation in the Ukraine war is a Churchillian “end of the beginning” or we are far from that point could determine the outcome of the most consequential European war since the 1940s. – New York Sun

Paul Krugman writes: And military affairs aren’t like economics, where, say, the Federal Reserve basically works off the same information available to all those who know their way around the St. Louis Fed’s economic research website. […] Still, you don’t have to be a military expert to know that attacking fortified defenses — which is what Ukraine must do — is very difficult. On the eve of D-Day, Dwight Eisenhower told the expeditionary force, “The eyes of the world are upon you.” Now the eyes of the world are upon the armed forces of Ukraine. Let’s hope they succeed. – New York Times

Walter Russell Mead writes:  Nuclear and biological weapons could fall into even more-dangerous hands. Nuclear scientists could scatter to the winds, taking their skills with them. Criminal syndicates and cyber hackers could operate with impunity across an unstable Russia. Even so, given the cruelties and atrocities that mark Russian imperial history, few will shed tears if Ukraine wins its war and proves Brzezinski right. – Wall Street Journal

Leonid Bershidsky writes: Russia still hasn’t parted with the illusion that it can win this war without a full mobilization backed by a grimly determined population. Vladimir Putin’s political leadership has not worked hard enough to obtain that critical resource, so generals cannot expect to save last year’s ill-starred invasion with the kind of mass heroism that sustained the Soviet Union throughout World War II. The best they can do is hang on by their teeth — and that may turn out to be insufficient for Russia to keep all of the land it has grabbed in Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Brahma Chellaney writes: An extended Ukraine war will help formalize a Sino-Russian strategic axis while increasing the likelihood of Chinese aggression against Taiwan. By contrast, a frozen Ukraine conflict arising from a ceasefire will keep Moscow preoccupied while letting America focus less on Russia, the world’s most-sanctioned country, and more on a globally expansionist China. – The Hill

Jamie Dettmer writes: When facing stout resistance, can it continue to push on and not hesitate? And, above all, have Ukrainian forces trained enough with the new Western-supplied tanks, armored vehicles and other equipment they only recently got? In his message, hours before D-Day, Eisenhower noted: “The tide has turned! The free men of the world are marching together to Victory!” And this, now, is Ukraine’s D-Day. – Politico

Tom Rogan writes: Put simply, Ukraine retains the strategic initiative and seems set to exploit Russian vulnerabilities in the coming days. Next, probably, look for Ukrainian air and artillery strikes on Russian command and control and air combat centers behind the front lines. – Washington Examiner

Samuel Charap writes: Many commentators will continue to insist that this war must be decided only on the battlefield. But that view discounts how the war’s structural realities are unlikely to change even if the frontline shifts, an outcome that itself is far from guaranteed. The United States and its allies should be capable of helping Ukraine simultaneously on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Now is the time to start. – Foreign Affairs

Dalibor Rohac writes: In those circumstances, it is exceedingly unlikely that the Ukrainians will show much deference to U.S. and European interests either in their execution of the war or in their future alliances. And that would be as much of a loss for the United States as it would be for Ukraine. – Foreign Policy 

Afghanistan

More than 80 Afghan students and teachers — most of them girls — were apparently poisoned over the past two days, local officials said Monday, in incidents that, while causing no critical injuries, mirrored recent attacks on schoolgirls in neighboring Iran. – Washington Post 

The deputy governor of Afghanistan’s northern Badakhshan province was killed by a car bomb on Tuesday, the provincial spokesperson said. – Reuters

An international aid agency in Afghanistan has resumed operations in the southern province of Kandahar – the birthplace of the Taliban and home to its supreme spiritual leader – after its Afghan female staff were allowed to return to work. – Reuters

Neville Teller writes: According to a recent UN report, the Taliban’s treatment of women and girls could amount to a crime against humanity. The US has long urged the Taliban to reverse its ban on girls’ schooling and women working, and to restore their freedom of movement. In support of this, the US has imposed heavy sanctions on the Taliban regime, including commercial restrictions and a freeze on its assets. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Early one recent morning, Lebanese soldiers swept through the Bourj Hammoud neighborhood in Beirut, emptying two buildings of the Syrian refugees living in them. They forced them into trucks and drove them to a no-man’s land between the Lebanese and Syrian borders. – New York Times

Voters in Kuwait were casting ballots on Tuesday for a third time in as many years, with little hope of ending a prolonged gridlock between the ruling family and assertive lawmakers after the judiciary dissolved the legislature earlier this year. – Associated Press

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan appointed his spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin as the head of the National Intelligence Agency (MIT) on Monday, Erdogan’s communications office said. – Reuters

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is likely to step up efforts to build ties with the Middle East and North Africa after taking steps in that direction as head of the national intelligence agency, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Libyan leaders were due to meet in Morocco on Monday to finalise a deal on new electoral laws, but any agreement they announce on voting rules or a new interim government is likely to trigger opposition that may further delay the political process. – Reuters

Egypt faces an increasingly tough task raising cash for foreign debt repayments after external borrowing quadrupled over the past eight years to help fund a new capital, build infrastructure, buy weapons and support an overvalued currency. – Reuters

Alon Pinkas writes: In the last decade the United States has reprioritized its foreign policy and transitioned gradually but clearly away from the Middle East toward the Indo-Pacific and China. But the United States is by no means “out of the Middle East.” The recent developments reflect uncertainty and a degree of confusion for a region accustomed to U.S. dominance, even if the Americans aren’t omnipresent. – Haaretz

Seth J. Frantzman writes: When Yazidis returned home to Sinjar, they found destroyed villages and desolate landscapes that receive very little investment from the authorities. They still suffer from militia checkpoints and neglected security in their areas, as well as a lack of access to proper health care and educational facilities. Further, Turkey claims to be “fighting terror” in Sinjar and has carried out drone strikes and extrajudicial assassinations that have killed Yazidis in recent years. – Jerusalem Post

Mohamed Abdelaziz writes: And when it comes to the issue of Islamic reform—a point of contention between President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and the major Islamic center of learning Al-Azhar, which has been resistant—only a quarter of Egyptians agree with this proposition: “We should listen to those among us who are trying to interpret Islam in a more moderate, tolerant, and modern way.” These numbers remained unchanged since the August 2022 poll. The lack of support for such a statement is striking given the role it plays in the Egyptian regime’s discourse against pro-Muslim Brotherhood figures. In this case, the timing of fieldwork mostly during Ramadan may have skewed some responses in that direction. – Washington Institute

Martyn Warr, Austin Doctor, Devorah Margolin write: The current status of detainees in northeast Syria is precarious, and certain factors could make the situation even worse: continued IS threats against camps and prisons; the threat of further natural disasters like the February earthquakes in Syria and Turkey; the lingering possibility of Turkish cross-border intervention; the uncertain future of the SDF; and recent regional efforts to normalize relations with the Assad regime. To mitigate these risks, authorities must continue the conversation about implementing repatriation in a timely manner. – Washington Institute

China

The U.S. military released video showing the moment a Chinese navy ship sailed across the path of USS Chung-Hoon and Canada’s HMCS Montreal in the Taiwan Strait, forcing the American destroyer to slow to avoid collision. – Washington Post

Senior U.S. and Chinese diplomats held “candid and productive” talks in Beijing and agreed to keep open lines of communication to avoid tensions from spiraling into conflict, officials said Tuesday. – Associated Press

A Chinese research ship and its escort, which operated for nearly a month in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea, left those waters on Monday night, vessel-tracking experts said, just after high-level U.S.-China talks. – Reuters

The Hong Kong government said on Tuesday that it asked a court to ban a protest song in a bid to prevent people from inciting secession or insulting China’s national anthem. – Reuters

The Chinese military’s unsafe intercepts of U.S. Air Force aircraft and Navy vessels have occurred “more frequently than we’d like,” White House National Security Council coordinator John Kirby said. – Washington Examiner

Shuli Ren writes: Caixin’s cover story is a mere reflection of a hot topic that, in recent weeks, has been widely discussed among academics and investors in the mainland. Xi’s administration has been refraining from large-scale quantitative easing, but perhaps the time has finally arrived. Having scared away investors — foreign and domestic alike — the government itself has to be the buyer of last resort now. – Bloomberg

Derek Scissors writes: At best, US policy is then pushed to the minimal, often token, actions acceptable to the many actors with stakes in China. At worst, the executive is being played by cries of multilateralism from those with no true regard for American national interest. Consensus-building has its place, but an administration that always forgoes American leadership is creating serious military, economic, and political risks. – American Enterprise Institute

Liza Tobin and Michael Auslin write: As human rights advocate Wei Jingsheng wrote: “Democracy in China can only be established by the people in China. … The more the people in China know, the smoother the process of establishing democracy will be.” For now, the choice of path China will take has been co-opted by the CCP. Washington’s China policy must account for this reality, while at the same time contesting its legitimacy and affirming that the choice between democracy and dictatorship ultimately belongs to the Chinese people. – Foreign Policy

Asia

In a rare victory for journalism amid a crackdown on the news media in Hong Kong, the city’s top court on Monday overturned the conviction of a prominent reporter who had produced a documentary that was critical of the police. – New York Times

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles met his Indonesian counterpart on Monday to deepen security ties amid China’s increasingly assertive activity in the Indo-Pacific region. – Associated Press 

More than 30 people accused of a coup plot have been arrested in Kyrgyzstan, the national security service said Tuesday. – Agence France-Presse

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government on Tuesday unveiled an action plan on his “new capitalism” programme of driving growth and wealth distribution through wage hikes, signalling his commitment to shift the economy into a higher gear. – Reuters

The Pacific Islands nation of Vanuatu said on Tuesday a security treaty with Australia would be put to parliament before the end of 2023, as concerns over China in the region saw neighbouring Papua New Guinea delay signing another such treaty. – Reuters

Daisuke J. Nakajima and Jeffrey D. Korzenik write: U.S. business must first accept that a real labor shortage exists and, like the Japanese, lead the way in incorporating talent that has long been neglected. In the U.S., that means finding ways to employ workers who lack traditional credentials or who have been marginalized by such factors as poverty, substance abuse and criminal records. As in Japan, success for the business community will lie in promoting labor where it can be found today, not where it was in the past. – Wall Street Journal

Fiona Kelliher writes: With opposition members facing physical violence, in jail, or defecting to the ruling party, Hun Sen’s two presented options seem to be less of a threat than a statement of fact. That doesn’t make Meta’s decision less fraught: Its platform remains powerful through its ability to amplify speech, and the Oversight Board’s decision sets an important precedent. But how Hun Sen’s government will treat his political opponents offline—during the upcoming election and beyond—remains up to him alone. – Foreign Policy

Africa

Senegal experts called on the government on Monday to instill calm after days of the deadliest violence in years and concerns it could have lasting consequences. – Associated Press 

Shelling and heavy clashes hit areas of Sudan’s capital on Monday, residents said, with reports of spreading lawlessness in Khartoum and in the western region of Darfur after more than seven weeks of conflict between rival military factions. – Reuters

Democratic Republic of Congo is nearing an agreement with neighbouring Angola over one of the offshore blocks between the countries that have been the subject of a 50-year dispute, Congo’s oil minister told Reuters. – Reuters

Ugandan troops discovered the bodies of 54 Ugandan soldiers who were killed during an al-Shabaab attack on an African Union base in Somalia last week, according to Ugandan officials. – CNN

United States

President Biden hosted Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark at the White House on Monday to discuss security initiatives, including providing military support to Ukraine, amid reports that Kyiv may be stepping up its long-planned counteroffensive against Russian forces. – New York Times

Robert Hanssen, the former FBI agent turned spy whom the bureau describes as the most damaging in its history, was found dead in his prison cell on Monday, U.S. authorities said. – Reuters

The United States and several other countries have committed human rights violations against a Saudi man held in the Guantanamo prison and accused of organising the bombing of the USS Cole in the port of Aden in 2000, a U.N. report said. – Reuters

Henry Olsen writes: President Biden must make clear that he intends to work with whichever coalition can form a government. That means he must steer clear of endorsing the opposition’s claims that the government is destroying Polish democracy. He must also avoid embracing the current government too strongly, even if it is essential to saving Ukraine. Poland and the United States need each other. But that alliance must be based on shared national interests and rise above partisan politics on both sides of the Atlantic. – Washington Post

Defense

Sgt. Maj. Carlos Ruiz was selected Monday as the next enlisted leader of the Marine Corps, as the services and Joint Chiefs prepare for a new crop of leadership. – Military.com

After three years of modeling and experimentation to overhaul the Marine Corps for an island-hopping campaign in the Indo-Pacific, service officials say they are done divesting of older platforms and capabilities and need more money to continue modernizing the force. – Military.com

The U.S. Marine Corps intends to replace some decades-old Hellfire missiles with a family of long-range loitering munitions, giving its attack helicopters greater range and lethality for a fight in the Pacific region. – Defense News