Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Top Pentagon officials on Thursday revealed new details about the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities and the subsequent defense of a military base that faced a retaliatory attack, describing both as intricate operations with little margin for error while sidestepping questions about the fate of Tehran’s uranium stockpile. – Washington Post

Iran’s supreme leader on Thursday gave his first address to the nation since a bruising conflict with Israel ended earlier this week. In a prerecorded video message, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei downplayed reports of severe damage to the country’s nuclear program following a wave of U.S. strikes and declared victory over both Israel and the United States. – Washington Post

Over the 36 years of his rule, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has outmaneuvered his rivals, set a confrontational course for Iran’s foreign policy and ensured his firm grip over Iran’s military forces. Throughout it all, he has maintained ultimate power despite persistent opposition in some quarters to his rule and no shortage of domestic and foreign crises. – Washington Post

Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are “no longer operational” after the United States attacked the site with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, said on French radio on Thursday. – New York Times

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday said he was unaware of any intelligence suggesting Iran had moved any of its highly enriched uranium to shield it from U.S. strikes, amid continuing questions about the state of Iran’s nuclear program. – Reuters

Iran currently has no plan to meet with the United States, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Thursday in an interview on state TV, contradicting U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that Washington planned to have talks with Iran next week. – Reuters

Russia wants Iran to continue its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday. – Reuters

A damaged unit of the South Pars refinery’s Phase 14, which was hit by Israel in its first strike on Iran’s oil and gas sector, has returned to operation, the Iranian state-run agency Nour News reported on Thursday. – Reuters

France’s military took part in efforts to stop Iranian drones targeting Israel prior to this week’s ceasefire, the country’s defence minister Sebastien Lecornu said late on Wednesday. – Reuters

For those concerned about Iran becoming a nuclear-armed state, it’s essential to understand not just what the attacks by the US and Israel did to the country’s capacity to enrich uranium, but also its existing inventory of atomic fuel. – Bloomberg

Israel has estimated the cost of damages incurred during its 12-day war with Iran at 10 billion shekels ($3 billion), with funds needed both to repair missile-hit buildings and pay compensation to local businesses. – Bloomberg

The Trump administration has discussed offering Iran access to as much as $30 billion in foreign-backed investment to develop a civilian nuclear energy program, as part of a broader diplomatic push to reengage Tehran in nuclear negotiations, according to a CNN report citing multiple sources familiar with the talks. – Jerusalem Post

According to top IDF sources, by the time the IDF attacked on June 13, the Islamic Republic not only had 2,500 ballistic missiles – more than the 2,000 most frequently reported number – and it was not only on the way to building a new facility for mass producing ballistic missiles, but the facility was so far along that IDF Intelligence estimated that by 2026, Iran would jump to 6,000 missiles, by August 2027 to 8,800 missiles, and at that rate, it would have reached more than 10,000 missiles sometime in 2028. – Jerusalem Post

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Thursday acknowledged that US and Israeli strikes had done “serious harm” to its nuclear sites in the most wide-ranging remarks since the end of a 12-day war by Tehran’s top diplomat. – Iran International

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was not involved in the negotiations or approval of the recent ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, according to information obtained by Iran International. – Iran International

The dust has settled over Fordow, Iran’s remote mountain nuclear facility, and two other locations the United States says it “obliterated” over the weekend in a dramatic escalation of its efforts to hamstring Tehran’s nuclear program. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Andreas Kluth writes: That pact will inspire confidence and make peace to the extent that all signatories and other affected parties (including Israel) still trust in international law and legitimacy. If Trump makes that trust his objective and works to achieve it, the whole world — including the Nobel Peace Prize committee in Oslo — should agree that Midnight Hammer ultimately proved to be wise. – Bloomberg

Gail Shoresh writes: Israel’s integration into a regional alliance with moderate Sunni states—led by Saudi Arabia—based on shared security interests, would significantly enhance Israel’s regional security and the prospects of preventing a nuclear Iran. The current ceasefire is a meaningful tactical move. But an agreement with Iran that includes strict oversight mechanisms, operational freedom for Israel, and participation in a regional coalition would constitute a vital strategic change. – Ynet

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib writes: Ultimately, the Iranian people should be the ones to decide their nation’s future. This war, which may not be truly over despite the current cease-fire, must avoid the error of mission creep by keeping its focus solely on eliminating Tehran’s nuclear program and military capacity to destabilize the region […] The misguided slogans of anti-Israel leftists and overzealous social-justice activists that echo the Iranian regime’s anti-Zionist talking points do nothing but harm the Palestinian cause. They are a form of sabotage, not solidarity. Cheering Iranian missiles as they cause death and harm in Israel is no way to advance the Palestinian people’s just aspirations for freedom, dignity, and self-determination. – The Atlantic

Greg Priddy writes: President Trump would be wise to take the long view on this. Iran complied with the JCPOA, but if we are on a road toward repeated military actions against Iran to track down their covert nuclear efforts, there is every reason to believe that it will become a political albatross for Trump and Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential elections. – National Interest

Turkey

President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey has not given up on acquiring F-35 fighter jets from the United States and has conveyed its desire to rejoin the programme from which it was removed over its purchase of Russian defence systems. – Reuters

Turkey supports NATO’s decision to more than double its defence spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035 and is already exceeding the previous 2% benchmark, a Turkish defence ministry source said on Thursday, adding Ankara would prioritise air defences. – Reuters

The former leader of Turkey’s main opposition party said he’s willing to return to the post if a court invalidates the vote that removed him, a move that could divide the opposition and derail its efforts to challenge President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. – Bloomberg

Korean Peninsula

The U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities unfolded half a world away from North Korea. But for dictator Kim Jong Un, the attacks were a clear lesson: Nuclear weapons are critical for his survival. – Wall Street Journal

South Korea’s Nuclear Safety and Security Commission approved on Thursday the first dismantlement of a nuclear power plant in the country, the Kori-1, which was permanently shut down in 2017 after 39 years of operation, it said in a statement. – Reuters

Six Americans were detained Friday in South Korea for trying to send 1,600 plastic bottles filled with rice, U.S. dollars bills and Bibles toward North Korea by sea, police said. – Associated Press

Gordon G. Chang writes: Lee will undoubtedly be able to avoid a recount, but he will have great difficulty getting beyond the fraud controversy so that he can govern effectively. The risk is that the new president abandons any attempt to retain the support of conservative and centrist South Koreans and instead governs like an anti-American, pro-China, pro-North Korea leftist. – The Hill

Park Kyuri and David C. Kang write: As a democracy, South Korea’s foreign policy must also reflect public sentiment. Polling data suggests that, like their policymakers, South Korean citizens do not view China’s rise as inherently threatening. Instead, they see the intensifying US–China rivalry, especially when it involves economic pressure and technological decoupling, as a more immediate and multifaceted source of insecurity. While South Korea seeks to diversify its economic relations, there is little doubt that China will remain a critical partner in trade, investment, and innovation. – National Interest

Schoni Song writes: Lee has inherited an opportunity, not to undo the past but to refine it, not to retreat from alliances but to invest in them. The early signs are promising, his tone is measured and competent. However, absolute judgment will be measured not by summits attended or communiqués issued. It will be measured by whether Korea becomes indispensable to the architecture it helps build. In the end, foreign policy is not a statement, it is a stance, and stances, like alliances, must be lived, not declared. – National Interest

South Asia

The tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan is best known for its stunning landscapes and national happiness index. Lately it has earned a new reputation: crypto pioneer. – Wall Street Journal

India and Russia discussed the supply of S-400 missile systems, upgrades to Su-30 MKI fighter jets, and the procurement of critical military hardware, the Indian government said on Friday. – Reuters

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh told his Chinese counterpart that the two countries should seek a “permanent solution” to their decades-old border dispute, India’s defence ministry said on Friday. – Reuters

US President Donald Trump said a “very big” trade deal could be signed soon that would open up the Indian market to American business, as negotiators meet in Washington to break a recent deadlock over key issues. – Bloomberg

India declined to back a joint statement at the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization meet, marking a rare public rift within the security bloc and highlighting unresolved tensions following its near-war with Pakistan last month. – Bloomberg

Europe

The European Union is considering lowering tariffs on a range of U.S. imports in a bid to clinch a speedy trade deal with President Trump, according to people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

Oil executives enlisted President Trump in fights against clean-car rules, drilling restraints and climate laws from New York to California. Now, they have won his support in their effort to quash Europe’s flagship environment rules. – Wall Street Journal

Higher energy prices as a result of conflict in the Middle East might weaken eurozone economic growth and thus have a damping effect on inflation, the European Central Bank’s vice president said Thursday. – Wall Street Journal

When Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited the Oval Office earlier this month, President Donald Trump unwittingly channeled the psyche of a German public that is deeply conflicted over plans for a huge increase in defense spending and military capabilities. – Washington Post

Spain’s Constitutional Court on Thursday upheld core elements of a disputed amnesty law enacted by the Socialist government after Catalonia’s failed 2017 secession bid, under which more than 300 people have been pardoned. – Reuters

Britain said it would toughen up its trade defences to better protect industries amid a turbulent global outlook of trade wars and U.S. tariffs that has shaped its new trade strategy published on Thursday. – Reuters

The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats apologised on Thursday for the party’s past Nazi links and antisemitism, part of efforts to present a more moderate, mainstream image to voters ahead of a national election next year. – Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday the EU should do a “quick and simple” trade deal with the United States rather than a “slow and complicated” one. – Reuters

Slovakia will not support a new European Union sanctions package on Russia and will demand a delay in the vote until Slovak concerns over gas supplies after 2027 are resolved, Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Thursday. – Reuters

European prosecutors have uncovered a criminal scheme involving false documentation of Chinese imports to Europe through the Greek port of Piraeus that defrauded authorities of about 700 million euros ($820 million) in lost customs duties and VAT revenue. – Reuters

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez walked away from this week’s NATO summit with an opt-out from spending more on defense. He also left with fresh threats of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. – Associated Press

Kosovo’s top court ordered lawmakers to complete the inaugural session of parliament within 30 days, pressing politicians to resolve a stalemate which has prevented the formation of a new government since February’s election. – Bloomberg

The Americas

Mexican financial authorities said Thursday that they are taking over two small local banks and a brokerage firm that were identified by the U.S. Treasury Department as being involved in money laundering and facilitating payments for precursors used to make fentanyl. – Wall Street Journal

The commander of the United Nations-backed security mission in Haiti, mandated to fight powerful armed gangs in the nation, on Thursday called on more countries to lend their support as he marked one year since the first troops deployed. – Reuters

Colombia’s Constitutional Court on Thursday halted an electoral court’s investigation into President Gustavo Petro. – Reuters

In the busy shopping district of the Bolivian city of Cochabamba, ATMs let shoppers swap coins for cryptocurrency, beauty salons offer cut-price deals if you pay in Bitcoin, and people use Binance accounts to buy fried chicken. – Reuters

An Argentine judge on Thursday ordered that the seven Iranians and three Lebanese citizens accused of involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires face trial in absentia for the first time in the long-running case plagued by setbacks and controversy. – Associated Press

Guatemala and Honduras have signed agreements with the United States to potentially offer refuge to people from other countries who otherwise would seek asylum in the United States, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Thursday at the conclusion of her Central America trip. – Associated Press

Brazil’s Supreme Court agreed on Thursday on details of a decision to hold social media companies liable for what their users post, clearing the way for it go into effect within weeks. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

Hawaiian Airlines said on Thursday that some of its IT systems were disrupted by a hack, adding its flights were operating as scheduled. – Reuters

Human rights group Amnesty International accused Cambodia’s government on Thursday of “deliberately ignoring” abuses by cybercrime gangs that have trafficked people from across the world, including children, into slavery at brutal scam compounds. – Reuters

Indonesia’s Attorney General Office has signed an agreement with four telecommunication operators to install wiretapping devices, an official from the Office said, raising questions among analysts about the potential impact on privacy and surveillance. – Reuters

Singapore’s case against three men linked by local media to the illegal transfer of Nvidia’s (NVDA.O), opens new tab AI chips from Singapore to Chinese artificial intelligence firm DeepSeek has been adjourned until Aug 22, the court ruled on Friday. – Reuters

Kai West, a prolific cybercriminal better known for operating under the moniker “IntelBroker,” was arrested in France earlier this year and faces federal charges for allegedly stealing data from more than 40 organizations during a two-year period, the Justice Department said Wednesday. – Cyberscoop

Iranian state-sponsored hackers have launched a new wave of phishing attacks targeting Israeli journalists, cybersecurity professionals and computer science professors, according to a Tel Aviv-based cybersecurity company. – The Record

Patrick Ware, a senior executive at the National Security Agency, has been named the new top civilian leader at U.S. Cyber Command. – The Record

Cameron Berg and Judd Rosenblatt write: This will require the kind of breakthrough thinking that once split the atom and sequenced the genome. But alignment advancements improve the safety of AI—and make it more capable. It was a new alignment method, RLHF, that first enabled ChatGPT. The next major breakthrough won’t come from better post-training. Whichever nation solves this alignment problem will chart the course of the next century. The Shoggoths are already in our pockets, hospitals, classrooms and boardrooms. The only question is if we’ll align them with our values—before adversaries tailor them to theirs. – Wall Street Journal