Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran said Wednesday it foiled an attempt to sabotage a facility belonging to its atomic agency near the capital, the latest attack on its nuclear program and one that follows the election of a hard-line cleric as the country’s president. – Wall Street Journal

Iran said on Wednesday the United States had agreed to remove all sanctions on Iran’s oil and shipping but Washington said “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” in talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. – Reuters

Iran will decide whether to extend its monitoring deal with the International Atomic Energy Agency after its expiry on June 24, Iranian state TV’s news website quoted presidential chief of staff Mahmoud Vaezi as saying on Wednesday. – Reuters

The Pentagon was watching as Iran attempted, and failed, to launch yet another satellite into orbit earlier this month, multiple defense officials tell CNN. – CNN 

The Iranian centrifuge production site said targeted in a drone attack Wednesday was reportedly on a list of targets that Israel presented to the Trump administration last year. – Associated Press

U.S. negotiators are prepared to return to a seventh round of indirect talks with Iran on re-entering on 2015 nuclear deal once the leadership in Tehran is ready, a senior administration official said. – Bloomberg

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: Iran always seems to try to lie and cover-up blows to its nuclear program as long as it can block the world from seeing the truth, but it would have a double incentive to lie here if there might also be undeclared nuclear program aspects. It may be some time before the fog clears on Wednesday’s incident, but there is at least one theory about why this target might matter greatly to Tehran. – Jerusalem Post 

Mohammad Javad Mousavizadeh writes: While analysts have little clue of what Raisi’s foreign policies will look like—in large part because he hardly talked about the topic during the campaign—there is little doubt that he will be obedient to the orders of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran’s foreign policy was already heavily influenced by the supreme leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). By most accounts, this is only going to accelerate. – The National Interest

Ilan I. Berman writes: In recent years, Raisi’s name has figured prominently in those conversations. His current electoral triumph thus could well pave the way for yet another promotion. […]Tellingly, Iran’s elites seem to have come to the same conclusion. In their congratulatory messages to Raisi, the other presidential contenders are said to have offered felicitations not just for securing the presidency, but for his eventual ascension to the country’s top clerical post as well. – American Foreign Policy Council

Turkey

Turkey has ramped up talks with other countries over securing a currency swap agreement and a deal with Azerbaijan looks likely to be the first achieved, four Turkish sources with knowledge on the matter told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters 

A senior U.S. official said Russia and Turkey have tentatively reached an agreement to begin the process of withdrawing foreign troops from Libya in agreement with Germany’s Foreign Minister pledging to remove foreign forces from Libya. – Newsweek

Turkey’s state-controlled military electronics company Aselsan has unveiled the first of what will become an upgraded armored combat vehicle used by the military. – Defense News

Gulf States

Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed they brought down two U.S.-made drones this week over central Marib province, the scene of heavy fighting between the Iran-backed rebels and forces loyal to the internationally recognized government. – Associated Press

In a June 1, 2021 column in the Saudi daily ‘Okaz, journalist Khaled Al-Sulaiman wondered what would happen if an independent Palestinian state were to be established  under the rule of Hamas. […]He therefore concluded that, before liberating Palestine from the Israeli occupation, it must be freed from  the clutches of Iran. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Sheikha Latifa, one of the daughters of the ruler of Dubai, has issued a statement by email to Reuters saying she is free to travel, according to lawyers who said they were acting on her behalf. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s air defenses destroyed on Wednesday an explosive-laden drone launched by Yemen’s Houthis toward the province of Jizan in the south of the kingdom, Saudi state TV said. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

The owner and insurers of the enormous container ship that blocked the Suez Canal for six days in March and disrupted global shipping have reached a settlement with the Egyptian authorities, one of the insurers said on Wednesday. – New York Times 

Iraq’s government appears increasingly weak in the face of militias and parties that are expected to entrench their power in an upcoming election, dashing the hopes of protesters who were promised reform, say activists, officials and diplomats. – Reuters

David Gardner writes: There is growing conviction inside and outside Lebanon that the elites will only start to bargain if their bank accounts and property assets (mostly held abroad) are hit and they are prevented from travelling. Europeans are now preparing sanctions on those obstructing the formation of a government and involved in corrupt practices. […]But Washington started targeting key politicians last year. Nothing else has worked, and Lebanon is very close to hitting rock bottom. – Financial Times

Saif Abu Gulal writes: The democracy in Iraq is not perfect; it is still fractured and divided. Yet realpolitik with Israel can help the advancement of democracy in the new Iraq. Iraq can learn from the processes Israel struggled through to create an open and democratic society. – Jerusalem Post

China

Apple Daily, Hong Kong’s defiant pro-democracy newspaper that drew the ire of China’s leaders, said it would print its final issue Thursday, ending an era of unfettered reporting critical of Beijing in the city’s mainstream print scene. – Wall Street Journal

Chinese researchers directed the U.S. National Institutes of Health to delete gene sequences of early Covid-19 cases from a key scientific database, raising concerns that scientists studying the origin of the pandemic may lack access to key pieces of information. – Wall Street Journal

Hong Kong’s raucous and politically diverse news media, though free from the constraints placed on journalism next door in mainland China, has contended with various threats over the years. But after a draconian national security law went into effect a year ago, those challenges have multiplied dramatically. – New York Times

More than 40 countries urged China on Tuesday to allow the UN human rights chief immediate access to Xinjiang to look into reports that more than a million people have been unlawfully detained there, some subjected to torture or forced labor. – Reuters

The first person charged under the national security law in Hong Kong pleaded not guilty as his trial began on Wednesday, almost a year after he was accused of driving his motorbike into officers at a rally while carrying a flag with a protest slogan. – Reuters 

China has introduced further reforms to encourage private sector companies’ involvement in the research, development, and production of military equipment. – Jane’s 360

Trade power tensions, regulatory hurdles and attempts by the West to counter Chinese competition are delaying a return of the 737 MAX in China, frustrating Boeing Co as a potential rival demonstrates its growing influence. – Reuters

China condemned the United States on Wednesday as the region’s greatest security “risk creator” after a U.S. warship again sailed through the sensitive waterway that separates Taiwan from China. – Reuters

France is attached to the freedom and plurality of the press, government spokesman Gabriel Attal told reporters on Wednesday, when asked about Hong Kong pro-democracy tabloid Apple Daily’s decision to print its last edition later this week. – Reuters

China has lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Australia’s anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures against Chinese railway wheels, wind towers and stainless steel sinks, the commerce ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters

Xi Jinping is engaged in a personality cult. He has now lifted his own term limit as head of state, and revised the Party’s history to give fundamentally positive credit to the Cultural Revolution and Mao Zedong – a significant change in direction that is clear and worth watching closely. But I don’t think he can reach the level of Mao’s cult of personality. – Middle East Media Research Institute

President Joe Biden is set to launch the next phase of his China policy with a push for high-level meetings with Beijing officials after five months of pursuing a hardline stance. – Financial Times

The U.S. is poised to bar some solar products made in China’s Xinjiang region, according to several people familiar with the matter, marking one of the Biden administration’s biggest steps yet to counter alleged human rights abuses against the country’s ethnic Uyghur Muslim minority. – Bloomberg

James Hohmann writes: In April, the U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment warned that “Beijing is working to match or exceed US capabilities in space to gain the military, economic, and prestige benefits that Washington has accrued from space leadership.” This threat isn’t limited to the vacuum of space. China’s efforts must be viewed in the context of its ongoing genocide in Xinjiang, smothering of Hong Kong, saber-rattling against Taiwan and obstruction of independent investigations into the origins of the coronavirus. – Washington Post

Gordon Crovitz and Mark L. Clifford write: There is sad irony in what happened to Apple Daily. Hong Kong was transformed from a barren rock to a world business and financial center by immigrants from mainland China, such as Mr. Lai, who flourished under the rule of law developed when Hong Kong was a British colony. The free flow of information enabled prosperity and broad freedom. Now, Hong Kong shares and bank accounts can be frozen on the order of a single official, destroying private enterprise as well as freedom. – Wall Street Journal

William Danvers writes: Responding to the challenge of China and its BRI is important, but the U.S. and its G-7 allies can do well in challenging China’s efforts to be the preeminent global development force and do good by having a focused, sustained and effective development strategy with B3W. – The Hill

Peter Juul writes: But as we’re already seeing on climate change, cooperation between the United States and China remains possible in the midst of fierce competition – just as cooperation between the United States and Soviet Union was possible during the Cold War. In diplomacy as in dancing, it ultimately takes two to tango. – The Liberal Patriot

South Asia

At the center of much of the activity are Pakistan’s anti-terrorism courts, which were created in the late 1990s and intended to secure expedited trials and convictions through different rules for custody, detention and bail. […]Yet the issues in the nation’s legal system go beyond those special tribunals, according to international human rights groups. – Washington Post 

Narendra Modi will meet top Kashmiri politicians on Thursday, with discussions expected to focus on restoring democracy to the Muslim-majority region two years after New Delhi stripped the state of its political autonomy. – Financial Times

Britain’s top diplomat met Wednesday with his Cambodian counterpart as he pushed for closer economic relations to Southeast Asia, part of the U.K.’s new emphasis on the region. – Associated Press

The leader of Myanmar’s military junta on Wednesday attended an international conference in Moscow, an appearance that reflected Russia’s eagerness to develop ties with the junta despite international criticism. – Associated Press

Pankaj Mishra writes: Criticizing the assault on media freedoms and human rights in Russia and China has long been an American political reflex. Indeed, Biden’s insistent rhetoric that democracy is in a global contest with autocracy marks him as one of the U.S. leaders intellectually conditioned by the cold war’s simple oppositions. – Bloomberg

Russia

Russia’s Defense Ministry said its armed forces fired warning shots at a British destroyer that was violating what it considers its territorial waters near Crimea, but the U.K. government said its ship was “innocently” passing through Ukrainian waters and that no shots were fired. – Wall Street Journal

Russia will be ready to fire to hit to protect its borders, a senior diplomat warned Thursday in the wake of a Black Sea incident in which a British destroyer sailed near Crimea in an area that Russia claims as its territorial waters. – Associated Press

Russian ships recently practiced destroying a “carrier strike group of a mock enemy” off the coast of Hawaii, according to a statement from the country’s ministry of defense. The exercises come at the same time as the U.S. aircraft carrier Carl Vinson and ships from its carrier strike group are operating in the area. – Military.com

The U.S.-Russia summit in Geneva on June 16, 2021, was considered an exceptional event well before it had started. Russian President Vladimir Putin was elevated by Western observers to a level equal to that of the American leader, despite Russia having an economy smaller than that of California, Texas, or even New York, with a per capita nominal GDP matching the world’s average. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Germany and France have called for a new EU strategy of closer engagement with Russia to build on discussions with Moscow in the wake of US president Joe Biden’s Geneva summit with Vladimir Putin. – Financial Times

Leonid Bershidsky writes: Potentially, Russia plus the EU could be a powerful military, economic, technological and cultural combination that would rival, if not exceed, the might of the U.S. and China. But, even leaving values aside, creating this combination is not in Europe’s cynical interests. – Bloomberg

Africa

U.S. officials condemned reports of an airstrike hitting a crowded market in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region Wednesday, raising concerns about a bloody escalation of the seven-month conflict that has fueled famine and uprooted more than a million people. – Washington Post

But many Nigerians are outraged that only a fraction of these treasures are even under discussion for return — and not even the most cherished ones, like the Queen Idia masks. To them, the stolen works are not just physical objects of art, but narratives. – New York Times

The United States, Britain and France accused Russian mercenaries on Wednesday of operating alongside Central African Republic forces and committing human rights violations against civilians and obstructing U.N. peacekeeping — charges immediately denied by Russia which denounced the Western nations for engaging in an “anti-Russia political hit job.” – Associated Press

The International Monetary Fund has announced a debt relief package for Sudan, a step in helping the country as it tries to rejoin the global economy after years of isolation. – Associated Press

A summit of southern African leaders has agreed to send a regional military force to Mozambique to help the country battle its growing crisis caused by a jihadi insurgency. – Associated Press

An Ivory Coast court has sentenced prominent opposition figure and former prime minister Guillaume Soro to life in prison for “undermining the security of the state.” – Associated Press

Dozens of militia fighters in the Democratic Republic of Congo have laid down their weapons and surrendered, the first to do so since President Felix Tshisekedi announced martial law to tackle worsening security in two eastern provinces. – Reuters

Mauritanian authorities have arrested former president Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, one of his lawyers said on Wednesday, amid an ongoing investigation into alleged high-level corruption during his time in office. – Reuters

Jose Ramos-Horta writes: Military means will never resolve the political dispute that led to the Tigray crisis. They will only increase the suffering of the civilians in the region, which has already been far too great. […]For the good of Tigray, Ethiopia, the East Africa region and the world, we ask the prime minister to work toward a political solution as fast as possible. We and others in the international community stand ready to support the effort to achieve lasting peace in Ethiopia, and help Tigray start healing. – Newsweek

Cybersecurity

A House committee approved far-reaching legislation to curb the market dominance of tech giants, including Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Facebook Inc., but much of the effort faced intensive lobbying by affected firms that slowed the committee’s work and foreshadowed a pitched battle in the Senate. – Wall Street Journal

With booms spreading almost the length of a football field, the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Demonstration and Science Experiments spacecraft is the largest self-supporting satellite ever placed on orbit. Last month, nearly two years after it launched and a year after its mission was expected to end, AFRL decommissioned the satellite. – C4ISRNET

U.S. Cyber Command is using its annual training exercise this week to codify best practices for defensive cyber teams. – C4ISRNET

Marines on the future battlefield will need connections with the service’s enterprise network to make fires decisions and bolster command and control, a top Marine Corps general said Wednesday. – C4ISRNET 

FBI Director Christopher Wray on Wednesday told a Senate panel that a request for a $40 million increase in its cybersecurity budget for the upcoming fiscal year would go in part towards combating increasing and damaging ransomware attacks. – The Hill

At a recent exercise, National Guard cyber units practiced how to get ready for a scenario that feels increasingly possible in the climate of raging ransomware and hacks: Cyberattacks took down utilities on the West Coast and migrated across the country toward New England critical infrastructure. – C4ISRNET

Attorney General Merrick Garland said Tuesday that private industry needs better safeguards to avoid calamitous consequences in the event of cyberattacks like the ones that have targeted American infrastructure and corporations. – Associated Press

A French court has set Sept. 17 as the date for hearing a case brought by the finance ministry against Apple over allegedly abusive contractual terms imposed by the tech giant for selling software on its App Store. – Reuters

The EU has announced a formal investigation into Google’s advertising business, to establish whether it harmed competition by restricting or excluding its rivals from data and services. – Financial Times

Long War

A linguist for a U.S. Special Operations task force in Iraq was sentenced Wednesday to 23 years in prison in a rare terrorism espionage case, after she admitted she turned over names of informants and other classified data to a Lebanese man with ties to the militant group Hezbollah. – Washington Post 

Four police officers who had gone missing after a militant attack in Burkina Faso on Monday have been found dead, raising the police death toll to 15, police sources said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Counter-terrorism police have charged a 29-year-old man with possessing and sharing extremist material online. Musa Muhammad, from Dunsink Road in Witton, Birmingham, was due to appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Thursday, West Midlands Police said. – BBC 

A bipartisan committee urged the Australian government to list Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. The inquiry’s findings move the country’s federal government one step closer to placing Hezbollah on Australia’s terror group list. – Arutz Sheva