Fdd's overnight brief

June 23, 2025

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Iranian ballistic missiles are raining down on Tel Aviv and Haifa. Israel’s main airport is shut. Much of the workforce is moving in and out of bomb shelters. For most countries, such a wartime scenario would send investors fleeing and markets tanking. Yet the opposite is happening. Israeli markets are buoyant, outperforming the world. – Wall Street Journal

Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence service and military forces recovered the bodies of three hostages from Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday. – Washington Post

The United States’ overnight attack on Iran on Sunday, coupled with Israel’s own recent strikes, has taken Mr. Netanyahu to the brink of political redemption. For decades, he dreamed of thwarting Iran’s nuclear program, defining it as the greatest threat to Israel’s future, and its destruction as his highest military priority. – New York Times

Israel is very close to completing its goal of removing the dual threats of Iran’s ballistic missiles and nuclear programme, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday. He promised not to let Israel be dragged into a war of attrition but also said he would not end the Iran campaign prematurely. – Reuters

Israeli fire killed at least 44 Palestinians in Gaza on Friday, many who were seeking food aid, local officials said, while the United Nations’ children’s agency said the scarcity of drinking water was at a crisis point. – Reuters

Hours after the U.S. struck three Iranian nuclear sites, Iran launched more than 40 missiles toward Israel on Sunday, wounding 23 people and destroying apartment buildings and homes in three cities. – Associated Press

An American-led group has asked the Trump administration to step in with an initial $30 million so it can continue its much scrutinized and Israeli-backed aid distribution in Gaza, according to three U.S. officials and the organization’s application for the money. – Associated Press

The United Nations, after months of loudly condemning Israel for targeting terrorists who had buried themselves in hospitals and houses of worship, is now downplaying Iran’s deadly strikes on Israeli civilian sites. – New York Sun

A 7-year-old Ukrainian girl who left her war-torn country for Israel to receive life-saving treatment for leukemia was killed along with her family after an Iranian missile struck their apartment. – New York Sun

At the request of the Trump administration, the Israeli Air Force took out multiple Iranian air defense systems in the 48 hours leading up to the U.S. strike on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, three U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios. – Axios

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said the IDF has set back by at least two years Tehran’s ability to attain nuclear arms, and hinted that Israel could make regime change in Iran an official aim of the war. – Agence France-Presse

Survivors of captivity in Gaza and the families of the remaining hostage there urged that Israel’s achievements in the war against Iran be leveraged to bring their loved ones home. – Haaretz

El Al Airlines and Arkia announced Sunday that they will resume outbound flights from Israel starting Monday, as Israel’s transportation minister outlined the regulations for how these flights would operate. – Haaretz

Rocket sirens sounded across central Israel and the West Bank following a launch from Iran. Israeli journalist Amit Segal reported that just one rocket had been launched, and that it was intercepted. – Jerusalem Post

It took a whole week for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to convince US President Donald Trump to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Since Israel began attacking nuclear sites and other targets inside Iran about a week and a half ago, Netanyahu and Trump have spoken almost daily. According to both Israeli and US sources, the US president, along with senior US officials, was impressed by Israel’s success.- Jerusalem Post

A delegation from the Hamas terrorist group arrived in Egypt on Saturday to negotiate over a Gaza hostage deal, a source familiar with details told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

Mohammad Saeed Izadi, the commander of the Palestine Corps within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force and the key coordinator between Iran and Hamas, was killed on Saturday, both the military and Defense Minister Israel Katz announced. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Yet our own view, long held, is that whoever the president, he doesn’t have to be certain the ayatollahs are close to an A-bomb. Just the possibility of an atomic bomb in the hands of Iran was enough, given the potential consequences, to respond militarily. What happened over the weekend is that the American and Israeli leaders concluded that the moment was at hand. It’s nice to see the American and Israeli leaders together in action. – New York Sun

Editorial: Sustained pressure, coupled with a path to normalcy, could spark overdue change in Tehran. Regime change is not Israel’s stated aim, but history rewards regimes that avoid suicidal wars. The Post has long argued that Iran’s nuclear ambitions threaten every nation in the region. On Sunday, the free world responded. We salute the American president who acted, Israeli leaders who prepared, and the pilots and rescuers who executed under fire. A new dawn has broken, and Israelis are now safer than at any time in a generation. – Jerusalem Post

Elliot Kaufman writes: On June 13, Mr. Netanyahu took his attack plan to the cabinet, which for once made his life easy and approved it unanimously. Mr. Trump, unlike his predecessors, didn’t give Israel a red light. He followed up this Saturday night, in prime time. Soleimani was mostly right in his vision. But he couldn’t imagine that Israel would fight through Iran’s proxies and withstand slaughter, extortion, tunnels, rockets and internal displacements, along with pressures and calumnies international and domestic, and emerge with enough in the tank, U.S. backing intact, and Mr. Netanyahu still in the driver’s seat. Now, Israel’s prime minister can realize a vision of his own—and fulfill his historical responsibility. – Wall Street Journal

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib writes: For now, despite many shortcomings, including the lethal shooting incidents of recent days, the U.S.- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation may help ensure that civilians in free zones do not have to depend on Hamas for basic sustenance, since Hamas has long controlled the flow of aid in Gaza. There remains much work to do. But to save what remains of Gaza and the hope for Palestinian statehood, the first step is to reject the false narrative that equates Hamas with resistance to oppression. The true freedom fighters are those risking their lives to end Hamas’s repressive and tyrannical rule. – Washington Post

John Bolton writes: President Donald Trump did precisely the right thing for America by coming to Israel’s assistance and striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran, through its terrorist proxy Hamas, began a war against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, but its nuclear threat began over three decades ago, posing a risk not just to Israel but to the United States and all its allies. It was long past time that Washington did more to aid Israel in defeating Iran and took direct action against Tehran’s nuclear proliferation efforts. – Washington Examiner

Iran

Trump administration officials said Sunday that the air and missile strikes against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure were a devastating blow that has likely set back Iran’s nuclear program for years. But Israel and the U.S. could nonetheless find the decadeslong battle they have waged against Tehran’s nuclear activities could continue indefinitely if the Iranians managed to relocate some of their stocks of highly enriched uranium and other equipment before the U.S. military attacked. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. officials have signaled that in their view Saturday’s strike was a one-off intervention and that they now seek de-escalation. Iran has vowed to hit back at American interests. And Israeli leaders have told its citizens to be prepared for a long campaign. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump had been saying he would give Tehran up to two weeks to yield to U.S. demands before ordering an attack. Then Saturday afternoon at his private club in New Jersey, he gave the final go-ahead to strike in a few hours. – Wall Street Journal

Such reactions fly in the face of those who argue that Israel’s war against the Islamic Republic, while primarily aimed at destroying its nuclear and military infrastructure, gives Iranians a golden opportunity to topple the clerics that have controlled the country ever since Shah Muhammad-Reza Pahlavi was ousted from the Peacock Throne in 1979. – Wall Street Journal

The massive U.S. attack launched overnight on Iran’s nuclear program was unprecedented in its scope and the weaponry used, but was intended as a limited strike and not to overthrow the Iranian government, top Trump administration officials said Sunday. – Washington Post

After a U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran is weighing its response — with its top diplomat saying “all options” are on the table after Washington proved “they only understand the language of threat and force.” – Washington Post

A week of Israeli strikes has upended the lives of Iranians, battering vital infrastructure like fuel depots, airports and public buildings, and shaking the population’s confidence that it could remain insulated from conflicts in the wider Middle East. – Washington Post

Just days ago, President Trump had appeared to embrace hopes for a diplomatic end to the war between Israel and Iran, holding off on immediate U.S. strikes and saying he might wait as much as two weeks to give negotiations a chance to work. – New York Times

Iran has already launched a serious barrage of missiles on Israel. It may, as it has warned, attack some of the 40,000 American soldiers in the region. What will be crucial is whether Iran’s retaliation is prolonged. If it does enough to convince the Iranian people that it has not capitulated, Ayatollah Khamenei may then decide to enter talks with the United States about a settlement of the war. – New York Times

Wary of assassination, Iran’s supreme leader mostly speaks with his commanders through a trusted aide now, suspending electronic communications to make it harder to find him, three Iranian officials familiar with his emergency war plans say. – New York Times

Iran and Israel traded air and missile strikes as the world braced on Monday for Tehran’s response to the U.S. attack on its nuclear sites and U.S. President Donald Trump raised the idea of regime change in the Islamic republic. – Reuters

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council must make the final decision on whether to close the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. bombing raids, Iran’s Press TV said on Sunday, after parliament was reported to have backed the measure. – Reuters

The Trump administration said on Friday it had issued fresh Iran-related sanctions targeting eight entities, one vessel and one person for their alleged role in providing sensitive machinery for Tehran’s defense industry. – Reuters

President Donald Trump on Sunday called into question the future of Iran’s ruling theocracy after a surprise attack on three of the country’s nuclear sites, seemingly contradicting his administration’s earlier calls to resume negotiations and avoid an escalation in fighting. – Associated Press

When Ellie, a British-Iranian living in the United Kingdom, tried to call her mother in Tehran, a robotic female voice answered instead. “Alo? Alo?” the voice said, then asked in English: “Who is calling?” A few seconds passed. – Associated Press

When the dust settled on Iran’s nuclear sites on Sunday after a US bombing raid that President Donald Trump said had “totally obliterated” its atomic program, one thing was still missing: its highly enriched uranium, which international authorities haven’t seen for more than a week. – Bloomberg

Iran executed a man on Sunday who was convicted of being an agent for Israel’s Mossad spy service, the judiciary said, as fighting raged on between the two foes for a tenth day. – Agence France-Presse

Iranian officials are considering removing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the Supreme Leader of Iran after the country endured airstrikes by Israel and the United States, two sources involved in the discussions told The Atlantic in a report published on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF struck six airports in western, eastern, and central Iran on Monday morning, the military announced. The military added that the strikes caused damage to runways, underground bunkers, a refueling aircraft, and fighter jets, including the F-14, F-5, and AH-1, which belong to the Iranian regime. – Jerusalem Post

Iran detained the family members of an Iran International journalist Saturday in retaliation for the channel’s coverage of the country’s war with Israel, threatening to hold them until the journalist resigned from her position. – Associated Press

Editorial: The removal of Iran’s nuclear threat and degradation of its military will create new possibilities in the Middle East. Iran’s proxies will be less able to make trouble in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza. The Sunni Arab states want a new era of economic development, and Iran could join them if it chooses. Perhaps the Iranian people will get a say. The chatter about TACO—“Trump always chickens out”—will now quiet down, but the more significant reassessment has to do with U.S. foreign policy. The Obamaites of the left, and lately of the right, counseled that the world had to bow to Iranian intimidation. The best we could hope for was a flimsy deal that bribed Iran with billions of dollars and left open its path to a bomb. They were wrong, and the world is safer for it. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: The Hormuz threat underscores the wisdom of President Trump’s decision to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. Imagine if Iran had nuclear weapons and threatened to close down the Strait to leverage some geopolitical or military advantage. The Western response to clear the Strait would be a much higher risk. “There are no planned military operations right now against Iran unless—unless they mess around and they attack American[s] or American interests,” Mr. Rubio said. “Then they’re going to have a problem. Then they’re going to have a problem, and I’m not going to broadcast what those problems are.” – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Israel has been targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, not civilians. But Iran wants to limit its citizens’ access to information from the outside world. Ms. Lake has been reluctant to get the Kuwaiti transmitters back in action and has done little to help Iranians get the virtual private networks, or VPNs, they need to dodge regime censorship on the internet and social media. Mr. Trump knows more than most about the power of social media to drive social change. As the war unfolds and in its aftermath, Iranians may have a chance to forge a new political destiny. They need truth to counter the regime’s lies, and Radio Farda and U.S. communications technology can help them get it. – Wall Street Journal

David Ignatius writes: Here’s a real-world bottom line. Whatever happens next, Trump has gained some of the intangible leverage that comes from using military force. As the Iran crisis deepened over the past week, Russia and China couldn’t play a decisive role, nor did Europe. For better or worse, it fell to Trump — and he acted. That will be noted in Beijing and Moscow, and also among allies in places such as Tokyo, Taipei and Abu Dhabi who worry about America’s staying power. – Washington Post

James Stavridis writes: While an immediate revolution is perhaps unlikely — bombings by foreign powers have a tendency to draw a people together in defiance — Iran looks increasingly like Russia under the czars in the early 20th century. Sometimes brutal authoritarian regimes appear strongly in control, with the police, military and intelligence services dominating the people. Until suddenly they are not. A rotten theocracy is teetering in Tehran, and its people may have their best chance in decades at unseating it. If the religious leaders decide to “go big,” let’s hope the people decide they don’t want to ride along and risk an even greater US response. – Bloomberg

John Spencer writes: It is a campaign being carried out with intelligence, airpower, cyber capabilities, and precision. There is no appetite for occupation. There is no plan for regime change. There is only a clear, achievable military objective rooted in international law and shared security interests. If the Iranian regime collapses under the weight of military defeat, economic pressure, and domestic unrest, that will be the result of its own failures. But that is not the goal. The goal is to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state. Nothing more, and nothing less. This is not Libya. This is not Iraq. This is strategic clarity in action. And it is working. – Jerusalem Post

Eli Lake writes: Gerecht said that the apparatus that arrested and killed demonstrators in the Woman, Life, Freedom demonstrations in 2022 and 2023 will likely carry out such orders. Sazegara, the former deputy prime minister, is optimistic that at least some of them can be turned. “Our strategy is, as much as possible, to support dissidents inside the IRGC and the army and the intelligence services to join the people,” he said. But any chance for such an uprising will have to wait until the war is over. – The Free Press

John Spencer writes: A few voices have criticized President Trump for not getting congressional authorization before attacking Iran, but they are overlooking the historical record that since World War II, 99% of the time US presidents have used military force it was without explicit prior approval from Congress. Last night was not just a military achievement. It was a strategic message written in steel, silence, and sky. The era of delay and denial is over. The world has changed. Iran’s path to the bomb has been shattered, and the consequences of rebuilding it will now come at a cost they can no longer afford. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Speaking Friday at an economic forum once set up to court Western companies and showcase Russia as a lucrative investment destination, President Vladimir Putin declared that stagnation and recession in the economy would not be allowed after experts and high-ranking officials warned of a slowdown. – Washington Post

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia justified the war in Ukraine on Friday by saying Russians and Ukrainians were one people “and in that sense the whole of Ukraine is ours,” as he suggested the Russian military may yet capture more territory. – New York Times

Russian drone and missile attacks in and around Kyiv overnight killed five people, injured scores, sparked fires in residential areas and damaged an entrance to a metro station that serves as a bomb shelter, Ukrainian officials said on Monday. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that in his view the whole of Ukraine was “ours” and cautioned that advancing Russian forces could take the Ukrainian city of Sumy as part of a bid to carve out a buffer zone along the border. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called on Ukraine’s Western partners to allocate 0.25% of their GDP to helping Kyiv ramp up weapons production and said the country plans to sign agreements this summer to start exporting weapon production technologies. – Reuters

Around 10,000 Russian soldiers are fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, about 90 square kilometers (35 square miles) of which is controlled by Ukraine, Ukraine’s top military commander said. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that Ukraine was working on the rapid development of interceptor drones to counter the swarms of Russian drones that have been descending on Ukrainian cities in increasing numbers in recent weeks. – Reuters

Russia and Ukraine completed another round of prisoner exchanges on Friday, officials in both countries said, part of a recent agreement to swap POWs and the bodies of dead soldiers. – Reuters

Mikael Pir-Budagyan writes: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is willing to serve as a mediator, reiterating earlier proposals for Moscow to play a key role in US-Iranian nuclear negotiations. Moscow’s calls for de-escalation may seem contradictory, given Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine. However, in the case of Iran, many of Russia’s concerns about nuclear proliferation and possible ways to contain it should resonate with more pragmatic voices in a divided Washington. – The National Interest

Hezbollah

A member of Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was killed in an Israeli air strike on Tehran alongside a member of an Iran-aligned Iraqi armed group, a senior Lebanese security source told Reuters and the Iraqi group said on Saturday. – Reuters

Israel’s military is preparing for the possibility that Hezbollah might decide to join the war between Israel and Iran following the U.S. predawn strike on Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Nantaz and Isfahan on Sunday. – Haaretz

Iran’s Lebanese terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, is expected to remain on the sidelines of Tehran’s war with Israel in the immediate term, following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites early Sunday. – JNS

Syria

Syria’s security forces have detained Wassim al-Assad, a cousin of toppled leader Bashar al-Assad, state news agency SANA said on Saturday. – Reuters

At least 20 people were killed and dozens injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the Mar Elias Church in the Dweila neighborhood of Syria’s capital Damascus on Sunday, health authorities and security sources said. – Reuters

The Islamic State is believed to be behind a deadly suicide bombing that happened at a Greek Orthodox church in Syria on Sunday. – Fox News

Turkey

U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have raised the risk of the regional conflict spreading globally, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

A Turkish court arrested prominent independent journalist Fatih Altayli over comments on his social media allegedly threatening President Tayyip Erdogan, broadcaster NTV and others reported on Sunday. – Reuters

Turkish authorities detained prominent independent journalist Fatih Altayli on Saturday over social media comments allegedly threatening President Tayyip Erdogan, the Istanbul prosecutor’s office said. – Reuters

The United Nations’ Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA will open an office in Ankara, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday, urging Muslim countries to give the agency more support after Israel banned it. – Reuters

President Tayyip Erdogan met Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Friday and said Turkey will support Armenia’s peace efforts with Azerbaijan, Erdogan’s office said after the meeting in Istanbul. – Reuters

The Iran-Israel air war could spark a surge in migration that could harm Europe and the region, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Friday. – Agence France-Presse

Gonul Tol writes: With Erdogan struggling to contain Turkey’s growing domestic crises and leaning heavily on foreign policy wins to shore up support, Ankara is desperate for the Israel-Iran war to end — and for the US to stay out of it. Turkey has tried to position itself as a mediator, but neither the Iranian nor Israeli leaderships see Ankara as credible or neutral enough to play that role effectively. For Erdoğan, the best hope lies with Trump stepping in to de-escalate the conflict. But with the American president continuing to post erratic, often contradictory messages online, Turkish officials remain on edge, uncertain about what comes next. – Middle East Institute

Arabian Peninsula

The investment plan puts Al Jaber at the center of the relationship between the U.S. and the U.A.E., one of Washington’s closest allies in the region based on their longstanding trade and security ties. Adnoc, once a middling player on the international stage, has emerged as one of the world’s most ambitious—and well-funded—energy companies under his stewardship. – Wall Street Journal

Arab Gulf states are calling on the U.S. to rein in Israel amid the attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and calls by some in the Israeli government for regime change in Tehran. Those concerns have increased this week over the possibility that the U.S. could join Israel’s attacks on the country. – Wall Street Journal

Qatar held crisis talks this week with energy majors after Israeli strikes on Iran’s huge gas field, which it shares with Qatar, an industry source and a diplomat in the region told Reuters. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

Tens of thousands of demonstrators poured into the streets across Iran, Iraq and Lebanon on Friday after midday prayers, in a sweeping display of fury toward Israel amid a rapidly widening regional conflict. – New York Times

A Tunisian court on Friday handed down a 22‑year prison sentence in absentia to former President Moncef Marzouki, a fierce critic of President Kais Saied, on charges of undermining state security, raising the opposition’s fears of an escalating crackdown against critics. – Reuters

A Tunisian court has sentenced Sahbi Atig, a senior official in Ennahda, the country’s main opposition party, to 15 years in prison on charges of money laundering, his lawyer said on Friday, the latest move against opposition figures under President Kais Saied. – Reuters

Yemen’s Houthis will target U.S. ships in the Red Sea if Washington becomes involved in Israeli attacks on Iran, the group’s military spokesperson said on Saturday. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung named veteran lawmaker Ahn Gyu-back as the country’s first civilian defence minister in 64 years on Monday, making good on a campaign promise made after December’s martial law shook faith in the military. – Reuters

A South Korean vice industry minister expressed concern on Monday over the potential impact on the country’s trade from recent U.S. strikes on Iran. “As the Middle East situation enters a new phase due to the U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, there are concerns about the impact on our exports and imports,” first vice industry minister Moon Shin-hak said at a meeting to monitor monthly exports, according to the ministry. – Reuters

South Korea’s top trade negotiator said on Sunday he would raise concerns about potential U.S. restrictions on chipmakers in China when he meets U.S. officials in Washington this week for the third round of technical discussions in tariff talks. – Reuters

South Korea’s trade minister Yeo Han-koo will visit the United States from June 22 to 27, the trade ministry said on Saturday. The visit will include discussions with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the third round of bilateral technical discussions, a ministry official told Reuters. – Reuters

Japan and South Korea are marking the 60th anniversary of the normalization of their diplomatic relations Sunday. The two Asian powers, rivals and neighbors, have often had little to celebrate, much of their rancor linked to Japan’s brutal colonial rule of Korea in the early 20th century. – Associated Press

China

A U.S. official told top global semiconductor makers he wanted to revoke waivers they have used to access American technology in China, people familiar with the matter said, a move that could inflame trade tensions. – Wall Street Journal

When China helped negotiate a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, it hailed the breakthrough as a victory for Chinese diplomacy and a sign that America’s chief geopolitical rival had emerged as a major power broker in the Middle East. – New York Times

Taiwan is “of course” a country and China lacks both the historical evidence and legal proof to back up its sovereignty claims, President Lai Ching-te said on Sunday in a strong rebuke to Beijing and its stepped up political and military pressure. – Reuters

The Philippines accused Chinese Coast Guard ships on Friday of carrying out aggressive manoeuvres and targeting its fisheries vessels with water canons while they were delivering supplies to Filipino fishermen at the disputed Scarborough Shoal on Friday. – Reuters

A top Beijing official overseeing Hong Kong affairs on Saturday warned of persisting threats in the city as a China-imposed national security law approaches its fifth anniversary, while seeking to allay concerns about the law’s impact on the financial hub’s openness. – Associated Press

South Asia

A religious pilgrimage from India into China facilitated by both governments has resumed for the first time in five years — the latest sign of a cautious thaw in the contentious relationship between the world’s two most populous nations. – Washington Post

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi received a phone call from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, where he was briefed about the conflict between Iran and Israel, India’s foreign ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

Pakistan condemned on Sunday the strikes ordered on its neighbour Iran by Donald Trump, a day after Islamabad had said it would nominate the U.S. President for the Nobel Peace Prize. Pakistan on Sunday said Trump’s decision to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities violated international law and that diplomacy was the only way to resolve the Iran crisis. – Reuters

India will take measures to safeguard domestic fuel supplies, oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Sunday, after U.S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites raised the risk of disruption of Middle Eastern oil and gas and soaring energy prices. – Reuters

India will never restore the Indus Waters Treaty with Islamabad, and the water flowing to Pakistan will be diverted for internal use, Home Minister Amit Shah said in an interview with Times of India on Saturday. – Reuters

Asia

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will cancel his attendance at the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit in the Hague this week, a source with direct knowledge said on Monday. – Reuters

New Zealand said on Monday there has been a rush in applications for its new foreign investor migrant visa as the centre-right government looks to lure more high net-worth individuals to the country to stimulate economic growth. – Reuters

Thailand’s prime minister, seeking to fend off calls for her resignation, said on Sunday all coalition partners have pledged support for her government, which she said would seek to maintain political stability to address threats to national security. – Reuters

Taiwan will hold a recall vote for around one quarter of parliament’s lawmakers – all from the main opposition party – next month, the election commission said on Friday, a move which could see the ruling party take back control of the legislature. – Reuters

Japan has cancelled a top-level meeting with the US after the Trump administration abruptly told Tokyo to spend more on defence, sparking anger in Washington’s closest Asian ally. – Financial Times

Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra visited the border with Cambodia on Friday as she faced resignation calls following a leaked phone call between her and Cambodia’s former leader discussing recent border tensions. – Associated Press

Japan’s coast guard on Friday held a joint exercise with counterparts from the United States and the Philippines, as the three Pacific nations beef up defense cooperation in the face of China’s expanding maritime activities. – Associated Press

Europe

The U.S. and European Union appear to be nearing a deal on multiple nontariff trade issues from deforestation rules to the treatment of U.S. tech companies in Europe—but the fate of looming tariffs set to be imposed by each trading partner remains unclear. – Wall Street Journal

Fearing a full-scale war with Russia, the European Union and NATO planners are homing in on the continent’s ports as potential chokepoints should the military alliance need to rush large numbers of troops to its eastern border. Governments are boosting their traditional military outlays, but also looking to factor spending on infrastructure and transport hubs into their military budgets. – Wall Street Journal

A prominent Belarusian opposition leader, Sergei Tikhanovsky, was unexpectedly released from prison after almost five years in jail following a meeting Saturday in Minsk between Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko and Gen. Keith Kellogg, President Donald Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine. – Washington Post

Around the globe, growth has been slowing, trade and investment have been falling, and now, war in the Middle East could jolt markets. But governments across Europe and in Britain face an additional economic stress: significantly raising military spending. – New York Times

Spain agreed with the NATO military alliance to be excluded from spending 5% of its gross domestic product on defence, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Sunday. – Reuters

An anti-NATO protest in The Hague on Sunday shifted its focus to Iran after overnight U.S. strikes hit key nuclear sites there. The peaceful demonstration took place days before The Hague hosts a NATO summit. – Reuters

The German government will provide funds for an extra 11,000 military personnel by the end of the year, an increase of around 4%, tabloid Bild reported on Saturday, citing government sources. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump and his NATO counterparts are due to gather Tuesday for a summit that could unite the world’s biggest security organization around a new defense spending pledge or widen divisions among the 32 allies. – Associated Press

Romania’s new pro-Western president on Friday nominated a center-right former mayor to be prime minister, as the European Union and NATO member state seeks to usher in a new government to end a protracted political crisis that has gripped the nation since last year. – Associated Press

NATO’s European allies are focused on getting through this week’s summit unscathed. But even if President Donald Trump is satisfied with fresh pledges to ramp up spending, anxiety is growing about the US military presence in the region. – Bloomberg

Lee Hockstader writes: “That this threat is now clear gives Europeans the chance to go beyond meetings in gilded palaces, and to convince people they face an existential choice,” Gerald Knaus, founding chairman of the European Stability Initiative, a think tank, told me. “We need a clear narrative to make the case for a modern arsenal of democracy.”That is the concern that prompted Rutte’s call to arms. Britons, like other Europeans, can maintain their generous public health care and other social services, he said, and ignore his recommendation that alliance members devote 5 percent of their economies to defense. But in that case, start studying the Cyrillic alphabet. – Washington Post

Nicolas Tenzer writes: This autonomous policy must now be the core of the approach to Ukraine, where Europe alone has the will, albeit still imperfect, to confront Russia. The same is true of Africa, where Europe, and France in particular, will find itself increasingly alone. […] This despite the fact that he had been systematically invited since Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine, speaks volumes. Great damage is being done to an organization that seems incapable of resisting the arbitrariness and indecency of its leading member. This cannot continue. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Gideon Rose and Erik Jones write: China’s attempts to take advantage of this dispute by deepening its presence in Europe would be a constant source of tension. Power vacuums would emerge in the Middle East and Africa. NATO summits have rarely been considered exciting critical junctures when history could be seen going down one path rather than another. This year is different. What happens at the alliance’s June meeting and after will cap a season—or cap an era. – Foreign Affairs

Africa

Equatorial Guinea’s dictator freed two South African oil workers that his regime had imprisoned for years in apparent retaliation for an unrelated legal dispute involving the ruling family’s superyacht and vacation homes. – Wall Street Journal

A suspected female suicide bomber killed at least 12 people and injured several others at a fish market on Friday night in Nigeria’s northeastern Borno state, police said on Saturday. – Reuters

The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended by three months a ban on exports of cobalt intended to curb oversupply of the electric vehicle battery material, a regulatory agency said on Saturday. – Reuters

Several hundred armed men, many on motorbikes, attacked a Niger army base near the border with Mali, leaving at least 34 soldiers dead and 14 wounded, the Defence Ministry said. – Reuters

Rwanda has arrested prominent opposition leader Victoire Ingabire on charges of inciting public disorder and creating a criminal organisation, a state investigative agency said – a move one of her lawyers said was politically motivated. – Reuters

The International Criminal Court has been asked to review a confidential legal report arguing that the Russia-linked Wagner Group has committed war crimes by spreading images of apparent atrocities in West Africa on social media, including ones alluding to cannibalism, according to the brief seen exclusively by The Associated Press. – Associated Press

The Americas

Following the lead of the Tump administration, at least two Latin American governments are discussing sending detainees to El Salvador’s notorious prison system. – Washington Post

Bolivian Labor Minister Erland Rodriguez Lafuente has died, prompting authorities to open an investigation into the circumstances surrounding his death, the government said on Saturday in a statement shared on social media. – Reuters

Panama’s government on Friday temporarily suspended some constitutional rights in the western province of Bocas del Toro hours after businesses and government offices were ransacked, following more than a month of protests and road blocks over a pension reform law. – Reuters

Colombia’s army said on Sunday that 57 soldiers were kidnapped by civilians acting under pressure from FARC dissidents in a mountainous area of the country’s southwest. – Reuters

A close ally of fugitive Jalisco New Generation boss known as “El Mencho” for years orchestrated a prolific drug trafficking operation, using a semi-submersible and other methods to avoid detection, and provided weapons to one of Mexico’s most powerful cartels, prosecutors say. – Associated Press

A former mayor from Haiti convicted of lying about his violent past on his visa application was sentenced Friday to nine years in prison and three years of supervision, after which he will be subject to deportation proceedings. – Associated Press

United States

President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is getting smaller just as Republicans head into a crucial week, after the Senate’s rules arbiter decided several controversial provisions don’t qualify for the special procedure the GOP is using to bypass Democratic opposition. – Wall Street Journal

Mahmoud Khalil arrived in the New York area on Saturday, following his release from custody more than three months after the former Columbia student was first detained by immigration officials. – Wall Street Journal

Hundreds of U.S. citizens have left Iran through its land borders since the start of Israel’s deadly assault on the country last week, according to a State Department cable circulated to diplomats Friday and obtained by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

A U.S. judge on Sunday ordered Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the migrant returned to the U.S. in early June after being wrongfully deported to his native El Salvador, released on bail pending his criminal trial on migrant smuggling charges. – Reuters

President Donald Trump’s bombardment of three sites in Iran quickly sparked debate in Congress over his authority to launch the strikes, with Republicans praising Trump for decisive action even as many Democrats warned he should have sought congressional approval. – Associated Press

The FBI is increasing its monitoring of Iran-backed operatives in the U.S. as President Donald Trump weighs involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, a senior law enforcement source confirmed to Fox News Friday. – Fox News

Editorial: And to what extent would the president be satisfied with limits just on Iran’s nuclear program, rather than on its capacity to produce and use conventional weapons? How long would he prolong the conflict to achieve aims beyond containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions? Americans — and their representatives in Congress, in whom the Constitution vests the power to declare war — did not imagine they would be fighting this war only a few weeks ago. Now the president needs to help them imagine how it ends. – Washington Post

Walter Rabe writes: This is a defining moment. The next four years in Washington will be decisive for hydropower, as about 40 percent of the non-federal fleet is facing license expiration in the next decade. Many facilities could voluntarily shut down if the support they need isn’t there. If hydropower isn’t fully valued, our communities will pay the price with higher bills, fewer jobs and a less stable grid. I strongly urge lawmakers in Washington, D.C., to back hydropower and value it in the current budget bill and future legislative efforts. An investment in hydropower is an investment in the future of America’s communities. – The Hill

Eric R. Mandel writes: American isolationism is not an option. A strategic vacuum in post-regime Iran would be filled by chaos or America’s adversaries. A prepared, engaged, and values-driven US response offers a rare chance to help Iranians realize a better future aligned with their freedom and global security. If managed wisely, the fall of the Islamic Republic could catalyze a historic realignment of the Middle East in favor of peace, stability, and freedom. If mismanaged, it could repeat the costly mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan. The choice is ours. – Jerusalem Post

Cybersecurity

Meta’s struggles to develop cutting-edge artificial-intelligence technology reached a head in April, when critics accused the company of gaming a leaderboard to make a recently released AI model look better than it was. They also delayed the unveiling of a new, flagship AI model, raising questions about the company’s ability to continue advancing quickly in an industrywide AI arms race. – Wall Street Journal

When President Trump issued an executive order in February against the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court for investigating Israel for war crimes, Microsoft was suddenly thrust into the middle of a geopolitical fight. – New York Times

The war between Iran and Israel has already expanded from the battlefield into cyberspace.  But Iran and Israel have also been launching cyber attacks against one another from the shadows — which officials are now warning may soon spill over onto U.S. targets. – Politico

Iranian cyber activists hacked the X/Twitter account of the Israel Antiquities Authority early on Sunday morning. – Jerusalem Post

A congressional crackdown on deepfakes continued this week with the introduction of a bipartisan Senate bill targeting financial scams that leverage artificial intelligence to trick people out of their money. – CyberScoop

Tonga’s top health official warned the island country’s residents that a ransomware attack has taken down its National Health Information System. – The Record

Allysia Finley writes: Another professor notes that AI papers are replete with “seemingly logical statements that are actually full of emptiness.” […]  When new technologies made manufacturing more efficient, many workers lost jobs and dropped out of the labor force—not because there was a paucity of openings, but because they lacked the skills and training to fill them. College-educated young people face the same risk if they don’t develop intellectual vigor, curiosity and grit. Why hire a brainless bachelor’s degree holder for a rote job that a bot can do at lower cost and with no complaints? – Wall Street Journal

Defense

Saab has picked emerging solid rocket motor producer Anduril Rocket Motor Systems to design and build solid rocket motors for its Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb, according to officials from both companies. – Defense News

It was an unprecedented attack years in the making, with some last-minute misdirection meant to give the operation a powerful element of surprise. – Military Times

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Sunday insisted that U.S. officials are not seeking regime change in Iran following American military airstrikes against nuclear facilities there. – Military Times

Mark R. Whittington writes: The U.S., on the other hand, has potential for enough economic growth to not only engage in an arms race in space but to prevail. Israel’s missile defense system has allowed between 5 percent and 10 percent of Iranian missiles to get through. Israel has absorbed the damage from high-explosive-tipped missiles. In a nuclear exchange, Golden Dome must stop 100 percent of an attack. Nevertheless, Israel’s recent experience is a strong argument for the Golden Dome. The fulfillment of Reagan’s dream of a world in which nuclear weapons have become “impotent and obsolete” will be a formidable task. – The Hill

Kanna Rajan and Karlyn Stanley write: These aren’t negligible issues. However, similar challenges have been overcome in recent years, including those dealing with the building, testing, verifying and deploying the complex software for the U.S. Navy’s Aegis command/control system and the software for the F-35 fighter aircraft. In the end, sustaining warfighting in a chain of Indo-Pacific islands against a potent adversary offers few traditional choices. The challenge requires clear thinking about new methods of supply delivery that are robust, scalable and resilient. – The Hill