Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Tensions heated up along Israel’s Lebanese border, as the Israeli military approved a plan for a possible invasion of its northern neighbor and Hezbollah showed off what it said was drone surveillance of northern Israeli cities. – Wall Street Journal

A group of Palestinian men approached a United Nations warehouse in central Gaza last week and demanded access to aid stored inside. The gang wasn’t interested in food, fuel or medicine. It wanted something it considered far more valuable: contraband cigarettes hidden in the humanitarian cargo. – Wall Street Journal

The U.N. human rights office said Wednesday that Israel “may have repeatedly violated” the laws of war by using massive explosives on densely populated areas in the Gaza Strip during the first months of the fighting. – Washington Post

Six weeks after it defied its allies and attacked Rafah, Israel is close to achieving its goals in the southern Gaza city it says was Hamas’s final stronghold, according to Israeli officials and analysts, raising the possibility that months of major military operations might soon give way to a new, less-intense phase of the conflict. – Washington Post 

A court in Paris ruled on Tuesday that France’s decision to bar Israeli companies from one of the world’s largest weapons shows was discriminatory and ordered the ban to be rescinded. – New York Times

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday said that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had assured him that the Biden administration was working to lift restrictions on arms deliveries to Israel, an exchange the top U.S. diplomat declined to confirm. – Reuters

The Israeli army’s chief spokesman on Wednesday appeared to question the stated goal of destroying the Hamas militant group in Gaza in a rare public rift between the country’s political and military leadership. – Associated Press

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday claimed the United States is withholding weapons and implied this was slowing Israel’s offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where fighting has exacerbated the already dire humanitarian situation for Palestinians. – Associated Press

IDF troops arrested senior Hamas official Aziz Dweik in the West Bank city of Hebron, Israeli state broadcaster KAN reported on Thursday morning, citing Palestinian reports. – Jerusalem Post

Israel Police on Wednesday began an investigation of photos circulated online of Justice Minister Yariv Levin, as the photos themselves have been described as shot through with bullets, Maariv reported. The cyber unit is checking whether the profiles that uploaded the posts with the same picture are real or fictitious – since in many cases, it has emerged that some profiles are of accounts overseas. – Jerusalem Post

The head of the IDF’s Northern Command Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin and head of the Operations Directorate Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk approved Lebanon battle plans on Tuesday, the military said, following a recent intensification of cross-border fighting with Hezbollah. – Times of Israel

During a Tuesday hearing on Capitol Hill, Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen read aloud a passage from the executive order signed by US President Joe Biden in February targeting individuals or entities engaged in “actions… that threaten the peace, security or stability of the West Bank.” – Times of Israel

Editorial: Since even coalition partners are saying that this government is on its last legs, it would be far better for it to fall now, rather than limp through the current Knesset session and into the summer recess with the coalition parties carping at each other, the military and political echelons exchanging accusations, and anti-government protests picking up steam. All this projects weakness and disunity at a time when the exact opposite is needed. – Jerusalem Post

Marc Champion writes: If Israel really wants to get rid of Hamas, Netanyahu needs to come clean about his intentions for Gaza’s future. He should also abandon a war-only strategy that has degraded the terrorist organization’s military strength at the risk of a far greater strategic loss for Israel. – Bloomberg

Ronn Torossian writes: Israel knows we have to sometimes fight alone, as history has shown us. The Holocaust showed us we can never rely on anyone else for our safety — and that is why Israel was created. As Jabotinsky noted, “We hold that Zionism is moral and just. And since it is moral and just, justice must be done, no matter whether Joseph or Simon or Ivan or Achmet agree with it or not.” Dear world: yes, everyone is wrong and we alone are right. We are the Jewish people — and we will live. – Algemeiner

Hanin Ghaddar and Aaron Zelin write: Finally, the U.S. government should consider formally designating the Fajr Forces as a Foreign Terrorist Organization if it conducts more attacks or expands its activities. At the very least, this could sever any connections the group might have to global financial institutions and send a message that randomly targeting civilians is unacceptable. – Washington Institute 

Russia & Ukraine

Russia said it is awaiting a response from Washington to its proposals for a possible exchange of prisoners, an apparent reference to U.S. citizens detained in Russia such as Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. – Wall Street Journal 

A Russian court sentenced an American soldier Wednesday to three years and nine months in a penal colony after finding him guilty of theft and threatening to kill his Russian girlfriend, state media reported. – Washington Post

Ukrainian officials insist they are battling corruption as fiercely as their troops are fighting Russia’s invaders in the east. But Western governments, including the United States, say it is still not enough — a source of increasingly raw tension between Kyiv and some of its strongest supporters that poses constant peril to additional economic and military assistance. – Washington Post

A Russian court has upheld a 12-year guilty verdict for treason against a physicist accused of passing secrets about hypersonic technology to the Netherlands, a Russian legal association said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Russian drone and missile strikes damaged energy infrastructure across Ukraine on Thursday in the latest major attack on the country’s civilian energy system, the Ukrainian energy ministry said. – Reuters

Russia has “significant amounts” of Western assets and property on its territory that could be targets for retaliation by Moscow if the West seizes income from Russian assets, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Nuclear-powered submarines of Russia’s Northern Fleet launched cruise missiles at sea targets as part of exercises in the Barents Sea, Russian news agencies reported on Wednesday, citing the fleet’s news service. – Reuters

Ukraine is investigating the suspected beheading of one of its servicemen by Russian forces in an occupied part of the eastern Donetsk region, the Ukrainian general prosecutor’s office said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Authorities in Ukraine have created a national registry to document cases of sexual violence allegedly committed by Russian forces, a senior prosecutor told The Associated Press on Wednesday. – Associated Press

Some 9,000 troops from 20 NATO countries have been participating this month in military exercises in the Baltic Sea region, which has become strategically sensitive following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Associated Press

Ukraine claimed responsibility Tuesday for an overnight drone attack on a Russian oil facility that started a massive blaze in the latest long-range strike by Kyiv’s forces on a border region. – Associated Press

Alexander Baunov writes: Summer is also more suited for active military operations, making Kremlin threats more credible. One may think Mr. Putin is merely staking out a tough position as a negotiating tactic. But it is more likely that his “peace proposal” is a prelude to a new chapter of his war on Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

David Ignatius writes: Some foreign policy questions don’t have easy answers, and the trade-off between energy sanctions and potential inflation is a prime example. The best outcome would be for Saudi Arabia, supposedly the United States’ new pal in the Middle East, to pump more oil so that new sanctions against the Russian shadow fleet wouldn’t disrupt the market. Biden is caught between helping Ukraine and helping himself. That’s not an easy choice. And even Ukrainians might agree that, with Donald Trump waiting in the wings, this isn’t the moment for Biden to do anything that risks reigniting inflation. – Washington Post

Kseniya Kirillova writes: However, Russian foreign policy depends directly on internal politics. Should the “patriotic consensus” begin to weaken, as happened in the years after the annexation of Crimea, Putin may need a new round of escalation to shore up his support. That is why it is important to demonstrate the unity of the West in repelling aggression. The Russian leadership must understand clearly that no escalation of the conflict will go unpunished. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Ann Marie Dailey writes: If NATO is serious about bringing Ukraine in as a member—and it should be—then it must be clear-eyed about the risks. It must develop a concrete plan, not just a political laundry list. This plan must be in support of a broader strategy. And most importantly, it must commit itself to success. Anything less is likely to lead to failure. – Foreign Policy

Syria

The simmering conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has upended life in much of southern Lebanon, including for Syrian refugees who lived and worked near the border but are now displaced with few resources and few people willing to take them in. – Washington Post

Biden administration officials are divided over what to do with $687 million in assets a French company forfeited after pleading guilty to aiding terrorist groups like the Islamic State, according to people familiar with internal deliberations. – New York Times

The U.S. Central Command said on Wednesday it had conducted an airstrike in Syria that killed a senior Islamic State official and facilitator named Usamah Jamal Muhammad Ibrahim al-Janabi. – Reuters

A Syrian military officer was killed in an alleged Israeli airstrike in southern Syria on Wednesday morning, the state-run SANA news agency reported. – Times of Israel

Middle East & North Africa

Sudan and the United Arab Emirates clashed at the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday over accusations by the army-aligned Sudanese government that the UAE is providing weapons and support to a rival warring party in the country’s 14-month long conflict. – Reuters

Diplomats on Tuesday said at least 550 pilgrims died during the hajj, underscoring the grueling nature of the pilgrimage which again unfolded in scorching temperatures this year. At least 323 of those who died were Egyptians, most of them succumbing to heat-related illnesses, two Arab diplomats coordinating their countries’ responses told AFP. – Agence France-Presse

A Lebanese civilian got into trouble on Wednesday due to a recording of an IDF attack in Lebanon and was forced to turn himself into the intelligence services, according to Lebanese media. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Governance is far from optimal in Kuwait’s semi-democracy. Parliaments have made it difficult for the executive branch to get much done. Ordinary Kuwaitis have found themselves frustrated by politicians’ inability to agree on economic reform.[…] Kuwait’s government should heed these sentiments. So, too, should its friends and allies, starting with the nation that sacrificed so much to liberate Kuwait three decades ago. – Washington Post 

Hamdi Malik and Michael Knights write: He is performing a unique task for the so-called Axis of Resistance combining roles such as sustaining and expanding the Islamic Republic’s vast propaganda machine in Iraq; taking part in KH’s decision making process; and playing an important role as a fixer between various Iraqi militias and the Iranian regime. This is in addition to his increasing economic role as a facilitator of Iran’s expanding economic activities in Iraq. – Washington Institute

China

Chinese leader Xi Jinping ordered a redoubled campaign to eradicate graft and enforce loyalty in the military, suggesting no end to a purge in the country’s defense establishment that has raised questions about Beijing’s ability to wage war. – Wall Street Journal

A group of U.S. lawmakers met with the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, to call for more freedoms for Tibetans, despite warnings from Beijing to avoid a figure it calls a dangerous anti-China separatist. – Wall Street Journal

The United States and China were set to hold high-level talks on anti-narcotics cooperation on Thursday, following a breakthrough in bilateral work this week that saw them jointly go after a major drug-linked money laundering operation. – Reuters 

Chinese automakers have urged Beijing to hike tariffs on imported European gasoline-powered cars in retaliation for Brussels’ curbs on exports of Chinese-made EVs, the state-backed Global Times newspaper said on Wednesday. – Reuters

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck set off on Wednesday for a visit to China to try to deepen economic ties while helping manage the fallout of the EU’s threat to impose steep tariffs on Chinese cars that has raised fears of a trade war. – Reuters

China said it was willing to study a plan to connect Malaysia’s $10-billion East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) to other China-backed railway projects in Laos and Thailand, potentially expanding Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative across Southeast Asia. – Reuters

China’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday that it had urged Britain to stop sanctioning Chinese firms after the country sanctioned five Chinese companies over their links to Russia. – Reuters

Daniel Moss writes: After the dollar fell too far, officials tried to reverse the pact. And the policymakers who sank the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates in 1971 predicted, and possibly desired, a weaker greenback. Yet here we are. Next time someone asserts the US is in decline, ask them how. If they blather about economic foundering, ask them where they have been the past few years. – Bloomberg

Junhua Zhang writes: Moreover, while Xi does not want to see Putin fall as a result of his defeat, he would not necessarily hold Putin’s hand if the West’s weaponry were to tip the balance in Ukraine’s favor. For China, the key issue is not Vladimir Putin’s neck, it is the survival of communist party rule. That comes before everything else. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Nina Shea writes: The next president – or a former president – should give a major public address to the Chinese people on the importance of our freedom and democracy and draw specific contrasts with Chinese Communist rule. American leaders routinely compare military and economic strengths but shy away from making moral judgments based on respect for rights and freedoms. Forty years ago, President Reagan addressed students at a Shanghai university about religious and other freedoms. He was then cautiously optimistic about China’s trajectory. An updated presidential-level address is long overdue. – Real Clear Politics

Asia

Thailand’s Senate voted Tuesday to pass a marriage-equality bill, putting the country on track to become the first in Southeast Asia to legalize same-sex marriage. – Washington Post

The Chinese coast guard boarded Philippine navy vessels and damaged and confiscated equipment in a confrontation that left a sailor severely injured this week, the Philippines announced Wednesday, in a stark escalation of tensions over the highly contested South China Sea. – Washington Post

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia wrapped up a state visit to one ally, North Korea, and moved on to another, Vietnam, arriving early Thursday hoping to shore up crucial partnerships in the region as he wages a protracted war in Ukraine. – New York Times

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday held a call with Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo to discuss China’s actions in the South China Sea, which Manila and Washington have called escalatory. – Reuters

Papua New Guinea Foreign Minister Justin Tkachenko said on Wednesday the Pacific Island nation was “crystal clear” in partnering with Australia for security, as China pushes to expand its police role in a region where it is a major lender. – Reuters

Only military strength can keep the peace with China and the Taiwanese people will not give in to Chinese coercion, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said on Wednesday as the United States agreed on a speeded-up arms package. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department has approved the possible sale to Taiwan of drones and missiles for an estimated $360 million, the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said. – Reuters

Police in the restive French Pacific territory of New Caledonia rounded up 11 people Wednesday, including an independence leader, who are suspected of having a role in the deadly violence that wracked the archipelago where Indigenous Kanak people have long sought to break free from France. – Associated Press

Africa

With a humility stemming from his party’s electoral disappointment, President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa was sworn in for a second term on Wednesday, conceding bluntly to the government’s failure to cure a nation that remains deeply divided and economically fraught in the three decades since the end of apartheid. – New York Times

 At least nine people were killed and more than 46 injured in blasts caused by a fire at a military ammunition depot in Chad’s capital on Tuesday night, health minister Abdelmadjid Abderahim said. – Reuters

Somalia’s government is seeking to slow the withdrawal of African peacekeepers and warning of a potential security vacuum, documents seen by Reuters show, with neighbouring countries fretting that resurgent al Shabaab militants could seize power. – Reuters

More than 200 protesters have been arrested in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, in ongoing protests against proposed tax hikes in a finance bill that is due to be tabled in parliament. – Associated Press

South Darfur saw a slight increase in critical aid when the U.N.’s World Food Program delivered life-saving food and nutrition to some families across the violence-riddled western Sudanese state, the organization said. But more assistance is needed, humanitarian organizations say. – Associated Press

Jihadi fighters who had long operated in Africa’s volatile Sahel region have settled in northwestern Nigeria after crossing from neighboring Benin, a report said Wednesday, the latest trend in the militants’ movements to wealthier West African coastal nations. – Associated Press

Kenya’s National Treasury warned that withdrawing controversial tax measures risks creating a 200 billion shilling ($1.6 billion) financing hole for a nation that’s had to seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. – Bloomberg

United States

The Biden administration hasn’t moved forward with the sale of a fleet of F-15 jet fighters to Israel, even after congressional leaders agreed to allow the major weapons deal to proceed last month, U.S. officials said. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. military’s on-again, off-again floating pier in Gaza is expected to resume operations on Thursday to unload sorely needed humanitarian aid for Palestinians, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters

A U.S. official was heading to Japan after meeting with the Dutch government to urge the allies to further restrict China’s ability to produce cutting-edge semiconductors, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters

The United States on Tuesday imposed sanctions on two individuals and a network of companies generating wealth for Bosnian Serb nationalist leader Milorad Dodik and his family, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement. – Reuters

A prominent Senate Democrat criticized the decision to invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address the US Congress, saying it risks signaling that the US endorses his war strategy when it should be using leverage to demand more protections for Palestinian civilians. – Bloomberg

The White House denied claims it canceled a high-level meeting with Israeli counterparts for Thursday following reports that it had after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the United States of withholding aid to his country. – Washington Examiner

Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday after the prime minister went after President Biden in a video message, accusing him of withholding arms from his country amidst the Israel-Hamas war. – The Hill

Editorial: This is what the Reagan Doctrine did against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and Eastern Europe. The Biden Administration has behaved as if the world still wants to play by post-Cold War rules. The result is growing disorder and the menacing ambitions of anti-American states. If Mr. Trump has a better response than saying there were no wars when he was President, the American people would love to hear it. – Wall Street Journal

Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet write: Yet again, Biden’s White House is inexplicably trying to deal Khamenei and his rogue regime a winning hand — and afford him more time to acquire a nuclear wildcard. To paraphrase Blinken, it is high time Washington ceases to “haggle” with itself. As Stricker and her colleagues alarmingly noted, “Tehran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for up to 13 bombs and enough for one weapon within a week.”  Enough is enough. – New York Post

Defense

Congress is laying the groundwork to restore nuclear weapon capabilities on roughly 30 B-52H Stratofortress bombers that had been converted to drop only conventional munitions as part of the New START arms control treaty with Russia. – Defense News

Congress is worried that robot dogs with machine guns will be bounding onto the battlefield in the near future. During last week’s debate over the annual defense authorization bill, House lawmakers inserted language in the massive military policy measure to require a new assessment from the Defense Department on “the threat of rifle-toting robot dogs used by China” in potential future conflicts. – Defense News

The Army is embarking on a strategy to implement a digital engineering environment meant to speed the pace, lower the cost and reduce risk in weapons systems development, according to Jennifer Swanson, the service’s deputy assistant secretary for data, engineering and software within its acquisition branch. – Defense News 

Carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) pulled into Guam on Wednesday for a port visit after wrapping up exercise Valiant Shield 2024 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Russian Navy Pacific Fleet began drills with the joint command of troops and forces in the north-east of the Russian Federation. – USNI News

The midlife overhaul and refueling for aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN-74) will now take about five and a half years to complete – an extension of almost 14 months, according to Navy Fiscal Year 2025 budget documents. – USNI News

Joseph Bosco writes: The Seventh Fleet’s presence at Subic, especially with aircraft carriers fitted with the full range of advanced weaponry, would exponentially enhance the joint defense in-country as well as bolster U.S. capabilities to preserve stability in the region as a whole. It would also send a powerful deterrent message: that China’s aggressive behavior is uniting the Free World against it, just as Russia’s invasions of Ukraine have produced NATO’s solidarity and resolve to help Ukraine resist. – The Hill

Rebeccah L. Heinrichs writes: The Wicker plan, dubbed the 21st Century Peace Through Strength report, is wise, given the nature of the China-Russia challenge and the high stakes. Deterring war—especially nuclear war against two nuclear peer adversaries—and preserving the American people and our way of life is and must remain the No. 1 priority of the U.S. government. We can afford to do this, but we cannot afford to fail. – The Dispatch