Fdd's overnight brief

June 2, 2025

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said Saturday that Hamas’s response to the Trump administration proposal to pause the fighting in the Gaza Strip was “totally unacceptable,” setting back hopes that a breakthrough in the 20-month-long conflict with Israel might be at hand. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. has presented Israel and Hamas with a new proposal to pause the fighting in the Gaza Strip, though the militant group has already criticized it for not requiring an end to the 20-month conflict. – Wall Street Journal

Israel will not allow a planned meeting in the Palestinian administrative capital of Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank, to go ahead, an Israeli official said on Saturday, after Arab ministers planning to attend were stopped from coming. – Reuters

The Israeli military said on Saturday it killed Mohammad Sinwar, Hamas’ Gaza chief on May 13, confirming what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said earlier this week. – Reuters

The foreign ministers of Arab countries who had planned to visit the West Bank over the weekend condemned on Saturday Israel’s decision to block their trip. – Agence France Presse

Nawaf Salam, Prime Minister of Lebanon and former President of the International Court of Justice, said in an interview with CNN in Dubai this week that his country’s normalization of relations with Israel would only be possible through a two-state solution that includes the creation of a Palestinian state. – Jerusalem Post

Aliza Pilichowski writes: France and Saudi Arabia can’t be blamed for wanting to stay relevant in the international diplomatic arena and using archaic ideas to try to claim some of the spotlight. Without Israeli, Palestinian, or American support for a two-state solution, hosting a conference that will advocate a two-state solution, elevating an internationally recognized terror group to a globally recognized governing political party, and unilaterally recognizing a Palestinian state, seems not only absurd but desperate. – Jerusalem Post

Paul Bachow writes: The civilian populations under the Palestinian Authority and in Gaza, after 20 years of teaching, now regard this view as holy and inalienable, and will not support two states. Those who still believe in a two-state solution—where each state recognizes the right of the other to exist in peace and with secure borders—are either uninformed or misled about the level of support for the religious belief in waqf lands by jihadists and civilians. These beliefs make diplomatic resolutions exceedingly unlikely. – JNS

Iran

Iran has continued to produce highly enriched uranium at a pace of roughly one nuclear weapon’s worth a month over the past three months despite talks between Washington and Tehran on a new nuclear deal, the United Nations atomic agency said. – Wall Street Journal

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said his Omani counterpart presented elements of a U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal between Tehran and Washington during a short visit to Tehran on Saturday. – Reuters

Western powers are preparing to push the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s board at its next quarterly meeting to declare Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years, a move bound to enrage Tehran, diplomats said. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities is a clear red line and will have severe consequences, the semi-official Fars News Agency reported on Friday. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s defence minister delivered a blunt message to Iranian officials in Tehran last month: take President Donald Trump’s offer to negotiate a nuclear agreement seriously because it presents a way to avoid the risk of war with Israel. – Reuters

Iran’s foreign ministry said on Monday it would have to see if there are changes in the U.S. position on sanctions, as the two countries negotiate a deal to resolve a decades-long dispute over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. – Reuters

Iran criticized a new report by the UN nuclear watchdog accusing it of nuclear violations, claiming the agency is motivated by politics and reiterating it isn’t seeking atomic weapons. – Bloomberg

Iran warned Sunday it will retaliate if European powers “exploit” UN reports showing it has stepped up production of highly enriched uranium and detailing its past secretive nuclear activities. – Agence France Presse

Former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan praised President Donald Trump for his strategy of engagement with Iran on their nuclear weapons program and predicted that the Trump administration would reach a deal that “is going to look and feel pretty similar to the” 2015 nuclear deal reached by former President Barack Obama. – Jewish Insider

Editorial: This is how Iran uses talks to buy time and relief, even while resisting U.S. terms. Two new reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (see nearby) show that Iran is pressing forward with the production of highly enriched uranium and has deceived inspectors about its nuclear activities for years, exploiting any and all goodwill it has been offered. This is unlikely to be an exception. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: The two reports set the table for the June 9 IAEA board meeting, when European states and the U.S. are likely to consider a resolution to declare Iran in noncompliance with its Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations. Even without such a judgment, the new IAEA reports provide enough evidence to justify so-called snap-back international sanctions as part of the 2015 Obama nuclear deal. President Trump says a new nuclear deal with Iran is close, but the IAEA evidence shows Iran can’t be allowed loopholes that will let it continue to deceive the world. – Wall Street Journal

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine launched audacious drone attacks on four military airports inside Russia, destroying more than 40 warplanes in the biggest blow of the war against Moscow’s long-range bomber fleet. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine and Russia accused each other of foot-dragging toward a second round of direct cease-fire talks backed by the Trump administration and set to begin Monday. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian negotiators at talks scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul will present to the Russian side a proposed roadmap for reaching a lasting peace settlement, according to a copy of the document seen by Reuters. – Reuters

The commander of Ukraine’s land forces, one of the most senior positions in the country’s military, announced on Sunday that he was tendering his resignation, citing a lethal strike on Ukrainian military training facility. – Reuters

Russia is prepared to consider a ceasefire in Ukraine to pave the way for a lasting settlement, but during any truce Moscow wants Western states to stop arming Kyiv and for Ukraine to stop mobilising troops, Russia’s U.N. ambassador said on Friday. – Reuters

By making harsh, uncompromising demands in peace talks with Ukraine while continuing to pummel it with waves of missiles and drones, Russian President Vladimir Putin is sending a clear message: He will only accept a settlement on his terms and will keep fighting until they’re met. – Associated Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin is stalling at the peace table while preparing a new military offensive in Ukraine, two senior U.S. senators warned Sunday, arguing that the next two weeks could shape the future of a war that has already smashed cities, displaced millions and redrawn Europe’s security map. – Associated Press

Editorial: It’s time for Sens. Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal to move their bill sanctioning countries that buy oil and gas from Russia. Republicans want to defer to Mr. Trump, but Senators aren’t potted plants. Sooner rather than later, they need to show they mean what they say about helping a desperate ally fight for its freedom against a marauding dictator who won’t stop if he succeeds in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

Syria

When Syrian insurgents rode victorious into Damascus late last year, their rebel leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, was relying, in part, on thousands of foreign fighters to help overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship. – Washington Post

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud said on Saturday that the kingdom will jointly offer with Qatar financial support to state employees in Syria. – Reuters

Israeli strikes targeted Syria’s coastal cities of Latakia and Tartous, killing one person, the Syrian state news agency reported on Friday, despite recent talks between Israel and Syria’s interim government. – Reuters

Turkey

Turkish authorities ordered the detention of several opposition party members in Istanbul and raided opposition-run municipalities on Saturday, state media said, part of a widening legal crackdown against the opposition and city’s jailed mayor. – Reuters

The commander of Kurdish forces that control northeast Syria said on Friday that his group is in direct contact with Turkey and that he would be open to improving ties, including by meeting Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. – Reuters

In a charged address at the 4th Türkiye Youth Summit hosted by the Türkiye Youth NGOs Platform (TGSP), President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan painted a bold vision of a nation free from terror and division, urging young people to lead the march toward unity and peace across the country and the region. – Daily Sabah

Middle East & North Africa

Iraq was a minor market for Visa and Mastercard a couple of years ago, generating just $50 million a month or less in cross-border transactions at the start of 2023. Then it exploded to around $1.5 billion in April that year, a 2900% increase almost overnight. – Wall Street Journal

Britain’s foreign minister, David Lammy, said on Sunday that the UK considers Morocco’s autonomy proposal as the most feasible basis to resolve the conflict over Western Sahara. – Reuters

Egypt unveiled plans on Sunday to build a desert city that will see about 7% of Egypt’s annual Nile River quota rerouted from fertile delta land to pass by upscale glass-fronted housing units and eventually a large agricultural project. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

South Koreans will head to the polls Tuesday to vote for a new president two years early, following the impeachment and removal of Yoon Suk Yeol for declaring martial law for the first time in the nation’s democratic history. – Washington Post

Attack drones directed by artificial intelligence. Tanks with improved electronic warfare systems. A newly built naval destroyer fitted with supersonic cruise missiles. A new air-defense system. Air-to-air missiles. – New York Times

When then-President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law decree plunged South Korea into chaos, it plummeted sales at Park Myung-Ja’s diner in Jechon and became a turning point for many voters in the town. – Reuters

North Korea condemned a multilateral sanctions monitoring group’s recent report on ties with Russia as political and biased, saying its military cooperation with Moscow was a “legitimate exercise of the sovereign right,” state media said on Monday. – Reuters

South Korea’s presidential vote is putting the spotlight on energy, brokerage and domestic-focused shares in the country’s outperforming $1.8 trillion equity market. – Bloomberg

South Korea’s presidential front-runner Lee Jae-myung has pledged to keep nuclear power “for the time being,” but plans a long-term shift to renewables if elected June 3 — a stance that could undermine the nation’s atomic energy expansion plans at home and abroad. – Bloomberg

China

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth vowed that there would be “devastating consequences” should China seek to “conquer” Taiwan, in a speech that appeared aimed at easing concerns in Asia over the U.S. commitment to its allies in the region. – Wall Street Journal

China has pushed back against President Trump’s accusation that it broke a trade truce reached just weeks earlier, as a re-escalation of tensions dim hopes of a resolution. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. schools—and one prestigious institution in particular—have long offered up-and-coming Chinese officials a place to study governance, a practice that the Trump administration could end with a new effort to keep out what it says are Chinese students with Communist Party ties. – Wall Street Journal

A trade truce between the U.S. and China is at risk of falling apart, as China’s slow-walking on rare-earth exports fuels U.S. recriminations that China is reneging on the deal. – Wall Street Journal

Fu Tong and his wife Elaine To were among the first demonstrators in Hong Kong to be charged with rioting in 2020 after pro-democracy and anti-China protests started in 2019 in the former British colony. – Reuters

China said on Monday that U.S. President Donald Trump’s accusations that Beijing had violated the consensus reached in Geneva trade talks were “groundless”, and promised to take forceful measures to safeguard its interests. – Reuters

China on Saturday criticised as a “double standard” attempts to link the defence of Ukraine with the need to protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion – a thinly veiled reference to a speech by French President Emmanuel Macron in Singapore on Friday night. – Reuters

China on Sunday denounced U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for calling the Asian country a threat, accusing him of touting a Cold War mentality as tensions between Washington and Beijing further escalate. – Associated Press

China blasted the U.S. on Monday over moves it alleged harmed Chinese interests, including issuing AI chip export control guidelines, stopping the sale of chip design software to China, and planning to revoke Chinese student visas. – Associated Press

South Asia

The drones and missiles have been stilled after India and Pakistan’s brief but intense military battle this month. But the two neighbors have turned up the heat on another longstanding conflict, over the sharing of water. – New York Times

India switched tactics after suffering losses in the air on the first day of conflict with Pakistan earlier this month and established a decisive advantage before the neighbours announced a ceasefire three days later, India’s highest ranking general said on Saturday. – Reuters

Russia has officially accepted the Taliban’s nomination of an ambassador to Moscow, the Afghan foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday, as economic and political ties grow between the two sanctions-hit nations. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday representatives from Pakistan are coming to the United States next week as the South Asian country seeks to make a deal on tariffs. – Reuters

Pakistan and India are close to reducing the troop build up along their border to levels before conflict erupted between the nuclear-armed neighbours this month, a top Pakistani military official told Reuters on Friday, although he warned the crisis had increased the risk of escalation in the future. – Reuters

Pakistan will designate an ambassador to Afghanistan, the first since Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, the country’s foreign minister said on Friday, announcing an upgrade in diplomatic ties that shows some easing of tensions between the two neighbours. – Reuters

Bangladeshi prosecutors officially charged former prime minister Sheikh Hasina and two senior officials with crimes against humanity for their alleged roles in violent crackdowns during the 2024 student-led uprising. – Bloomberg

Bangladesh’s top court has reinstated the registration of Jamaat-e-Islami, paving the way for the country’s largest Islamist party to participate in the next election. – Bloomberg

Vinay Kaura writes: Gen. Munir’s ascent is not a rupture but rather the culmination of a long arc in Pakistan’s history — a pattern wherein the military charts the nation’s course. Democratic impulses, repeatedly suppressed, have yielded to the steady hand of military authority. Whether he is keen to become Ayub or Musharraf, we do not know, but Gen. Munir’s growing control is a worrying sign of institutionalized militarism, one whose influence extends beyond national borders. For South Asia, the implications are destabilizing; for the West, past faith in Rawalpindi as a guarantor of order appears increasingly misplaced. Absent a course correction toward civilian rule, Pakistan risks drifting toward peril — internally, regionally, and globally. – Middle East Institute

Asia

Australia’s prime minister said on Monday his government would decide its defence capability needs before announcing defence spending, after U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth asked Australia to lift its defence budget to 3.5% of gross domestic product. – Reuters

China has a “deficit of trust and credibility” it needs to overcome in order to mend its fraught defence ties with the Philippines, though any breakthrough in the near term remains unlikely, Manila’s top defence official said on Saturday. – Reuters

The Thai government’s 3.78 trillion baht ($115 billion) budget for the 2026 fiscal year passed its first parliamentary vote on Saturday, but there will be a series of further votes before it can be enacted. – Reuters

David Seymour, leader of the libertarian ACT New Zealand party, was sworn in as deputy prime minister on Saturday, taking the role from Winston Peters in a deal struck when the three-party coalition government was formed in 2023. – Reuters

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles on Saturday urged greater transparency from China over its military modernisation and deployments as Pacific nations brace for a more assertive Chinese presence. – Reuters

The Philippines and the European Union have agreed to start a dialogue on security and defence in order to tackle emerging threats like cyber attacks and foreign interference, Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo said on Monday. – Reuters

The U.S. will neither be pushed out of the Indo-Pacific nor allow its allies to become subordinated by China, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said in Singapore. Speaking at the International Institute of Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue, Hegseth struck a bullish tone, stating that America is proud to operate in the Indo-Pacific and is here to stay. – USNI News

Europe

Raucous street celebrations of Paris Saint-Germain’s first Champions League title spilled over into rioting and clashes with police in parts of the French capital, leading to hundreds of arrests. – Wall Street Journal

French President Emmanuel Macron called for a new partnership between European and Asian nations to protect the rules-based international order and to avoid being dragged into the growing rivalry between the U.S. and China. – Wall Street Journal

France could harden its position on Israel if it continues to block humanitarian aid to Gaza, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday, reiterating that Paris was committed to a two-state solution to resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict. – Reuters

Britain will increase the size of its nuclear-powered attack submarine fleet, the government has announced ahead of a defence review expected to say the country must invest billions to be ready and equipped to fight a modern war. – Reuters

Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, will travel to Washington to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, German and U.S. officials said on Saturday. – Reuters

Britain said on Saturday it would spend an extra 1.5 billion pounds ($2 billion) to tackle the poor state of housing for the country’s armed forces, helping to support recruitment, retention and morale. – Reuters

Germany will decide whether or not to approve new weapons shipments to Israel based on an assessment of the humanitarian situation in Gaza, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said in an interview published on Friday. – Reuters

President Donald Trump will maintain the traditional role of a U.S. general at the helm of NATO, at least for now, three U.S. officials, a Western official and a NATO source said, even as Washington pushes European allies to take more responsibility for their security. – Reuters

Poland has elected Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and staunch nationalist, as its next president in a closely watched vote that signals a resurgence of right-wing populism in the heart of Europe. – Associated Press

Sweden is on track to increase military spending in line with goals that are expected to be agreed at NATO’s upcoming summit in the Hague, the Nordic country’s defense minister said. – Bloomberg

European leaders headed to Asia this week with a key message: We need to work closer together to preserve the rules-based order against threats from China and Russia. – Bloomberg

Africa

From the moment she learned of President Trump’s executive order allowing white South Africans to live in the United States as refugees, Zenia Pretorius knew she wanted to go. – New York Times

Sudan’s new Prime Minister Kamil Idris has dissolved the country’s caretaker government, state news agency SUNA reported late on Sunday. – Reuters

Flooding in Nigeria’s Niger State this week has killed 151 people and forced several thousand from their homes, an emergency official told Reuters on Saturday. – Reuters

Lawyers for Tanzania’s jailed opposition leader Tundu Lissu filed a complaint on Friday to the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention in a bid to ramp up international pressure for his release. – Reuters

Ethiopia and the International Monetary Fund have reached a staff-level agreement on the third review of the country’s $3.4 billion loan programme from the lender, the Fund said on Friday. – Reuters

The Nigerian military has detained over two dozen soldiers and members of the police force over sales of weapons from military stockpiles to armed groups, including Islamist insurgents, a spokesperson said. – Reuters

Latin America

Chile’s President Gabriel Boric said on Sunday that he will accelerate renewable energy efforts and step up pressure against Israel over its war in Gaza among other initiatives during his government’s last nine months in office. – Reuters

Cuba`s foreign ministry said on Friday it had issued a verbal warning to the top U.S. diplomat in Havana complaining of behavior it called “intervenionist,” the latest escalation as tensions grow between the two long-time foes. – Reuters

A federal judge prevented the Trump administration from invalidating work permits and other documents granting lawful status to about 5,000 Venezuelans, a subset of the nearly 350,000 whose temporary legal protections the U.S. Supreme Court last week allowed to be terminated. – Reuters

Chile center-right presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei held a small lead over more conservative contender Jose Antonio Kast atop two polls published on Sunday, reflecting an open race for the nation’s top job. – Bloomberg

North America

Mexicans voted Sunday in nearly 2,700 judicial races for federal and state judges, a new practice that the government says will stamp out corruption but that opponents fear will give the ruling party control of the judiciary and empower candidates with criminal ties. – Wall Street Journal

Canadian Pacific Kansas City has received a ruling establishing new collective bargaining agreements with two units from the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference. – Wall Street Journal

Falling investment, slowing growth, and the changing whims of U.S. President Donald Trump have led Mexico to support an early review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, a sharp U-turn on its previous plan to hold off for as long as possible. – Reuters

Prime Minister Mark Carney is hiring an executive from one of Canada’s top pension fund managers to be his chief of staff. – Bloomberg

United States

Eight people were injured Sunday in downtown Boulder, Colo., in an incendiary attack the FBI is investigating as an act of terror against a group advocating for the release of hostages in Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump said farewell to Elon Musk on Friday, closing out one of the most turbulent periods in modern government, with an Oval Office news conference in which both men said their relationship would continue. – Wall Street Journal

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of President Donald Trump, said he aims to have new sanctions imposed on Russia before the Group of Seven summit in late June. – Bloomberg

The FBI says it is investigating a violent assault on individuals in Colorado who were honoring the Gaza hostages as a possible act of terror. The chief of the Boulder police department says “multiple” people were left burned in an attack by what eyewitnesses said was a “self-proclaimed Palestinian.” – New York Sun

In response to the shooting that killed two Israeli Embassy staffers outside the Capital Jewish Museum last week, a bipartisan group of 46 House members wrote to President Donald Trump on Friday urging him to support expanded funding for key security programs in his full budget request to Congress, expected as soon as Friday afternoon. – Jewish Insider

Jeffrey Herf writes: Who were those people? How many other people who took part in the pro-Hamas demonstrations of the past 18 months share their views? Chances are that people who “love” Hamas approve of the murders of Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Milgrim. How many of them have guns and are making plans to use them? The criticism of terrorism and antisemitism must become louder—much, much louder. – The Free Press

 

Cybersecurity

Chinese efforts to spy on the Dutch are intensifying, with the focus on semiconductors, Dutch Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans said on Saturday. – Reuters

Several Senate Democrats penned a letter to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem on Thursday asking her to reestablish the Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) after the Trump administration dismissed its members earlier this year. – The Record

Researchers at Meta said the company dismantled three covert influence campaigns originating from China, Iran and Romania that aimed to manipulate political discourse in multiple countries using fake social media accounts. – The Record

AVCheck, a large-scale service that cybercriminals use to check if their malware can be detected by various antivirus tools, was seized and taken offline Tuesday by a globally coordinated law enforcement action. – CyberScoop

Defense

A Defense Intelligence Agency employee was charged with attempting to pass classified intelligence to a foreign government, offering to spy because he didn’t agree “with the values” of the Trump administration, the Justice Department said. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump withdrew his nomination for Jared Isaacman to run NASA, shortly before the Senate was poised to vote on confirming the billionaire and Elon Musk associate for the role. – Wall Street Journal

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s decision this week to cut more than half of the Pentagon’s test and evaluation office personnel was driven, in part, by concerns over the office’s plans to provide testing oversight for the Trump administration’s $175 billion Golden Dome missile defense project, multiple sources told Defense News. – Defense News