Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Recent polls in Iran have forecast historically low voter turnout in the contest to succeed President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate, as Iranians exhausted by years of political turmoil and economic hardship turn their backs on Iran’s politicians. – Washington Post 

Iranians head to the polls Friday to elect a new president, as the Islamic Republic confronts challenges from a cratering economy to heightened tensions with its regional rivals. – Wall Street Journal

Iran began voting Friday in a presidential election tipped in the favor of a hard-line protege of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, fueling public apathy and sparking calls for a boycott in the Islamic Republic. – Associated Press

Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee are probing the Biden administration for lifting sanctions last week on Iran’s terrorism enterprise without first consulting Congress, a decision they say was meant to skirt oversight. – The Washington Free Beacon 

Indirect talks between Tehran and Washington on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have come closer than ever to an agreement, but essential issues remain to be negotiated, the top Iranian negotiator said on Thursday. – Reuters

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday urged the U.S. to stop “meddling” in the affairs of the Middle East through continued arms sales.  – The Hill

Under Ebrahim Raisi, the front-runner in Iran’s June 18 presidential election, Tehran’s tone toward the West could harden, though it will likely continue to seek a deal to revive the 2015 landmark nuclear deal, analysts say. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Ebrahim Raisi, the front-runner in Iran’s presidential election who is linked to serious human rights abuses, was virtually unknown to the majority of Iranians until just a few years ago. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

The sole reformist candidate in Iran’s presidential election has vowed to try to resolve the stand-off with world powers over the nuclear deal “at first chance” if he is elected. – Financial Times 

Nazila Fathi writes: The campaign to boycott the election highlights the rising levels of both anger and apathy toward the regime, at a time when the economy has been suffering under the weight of U.S. sanctions, as well as mismanagement and corruption by Iranian officials. […]Boycotting the elections, for a population that is deeply scarred, is understandable. But sadly, a boycott this time may cement the hard-liners’ grip on power for many years to come. – New York Times 

Jordan Steckler writes: Khamenei and his hardline clerical and IRGC allies calculated that they can withstand popular pressure through increased repression if need be, and so felt emboldened to attempt a coronation of their preferred candidate. If the gambit succeeds, hardliners will control all the major power centers in Iran, paving the way for their retention of the Supreme Leadership and all but ensuring Iran will continue on its repressive, confrontational trajectory for years to come. – United Against Nuclear Iran

Daniel Roth writes: Rather than conceding to the Mullahs and dissolving red lines to pink for the sake of simply getting a deal, President Biden and his White House team must remind themselves of their early pledges to the American people. […]President Biden and his team must revert, and quickly, to the original “longer, stronger” idea, for the current trajectory shows that the U.S. is willing to abandon any prospect of getting a better deal in favor of simply getting any deal. – United Against Nuclear Iran

Salem Alketbi writes: The rise of the hard-line movement to the ladder of the Iranian presidency does not necessarily reflect the strength of the mullahs’ regime, but rather its weakness and the decline of its grip on power. Khamenei fears the aggravating impact of US sanctions, so he wants to change negotiating tactics and show a more tough face, perhaps this contributes to speeding up the exit from the sanctions grip, but he is also anticipating the failure to reach a settlement in this regard, and he believes that the presence of a president close to the IRGC and the Wali of al-Faqih institution supports the regime’s cohesion and strength in the face of any sweeping popular anger. – Jerusalem Post 

Omer Carmi writes: Earlier this week, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi suggested that revival of the JCPOA will probably have to wait until the formation of a new Iranian government. Yet some have suggested that Khamenei may prefer Rouhani to reach a deal with the United States before August, making him the lightning rod for Iran’s internal blame game while allowing the next government to reap the economic fruits of sanctions removal. Either way, the nature of Rouhani’s last weeks in office will be shaped by Khamenei, since Iran’s president still plays second fiddle to the Supreme Leader. – Washington Institute

David Albright and Sarah Burkhard write: Iran’s activity must be viewed as practicing breakout to make enriched uranium for use in nuclear weapons. It is learning to make such material more quickly and developing valuable experience in doing so. This experience also complicates returning to the JCPOA, since that experience cannot be destroyed. As a result, some compensating actions are needed or a number of sanctions should be left in place to compensate for this irreversible gain in violation of the JCPOA. – Institute for Science and International Security

Alex Vatanka writes: If a new deal turns out to be a better one than the 2015 version, including verifiable lifting of sanctions and real benefits for the Iranian economy, then the next government in Tehran will reap the political and economic benefits. No deal this week probably means only one thing: Negotiators in Vienna are still scrambling to fine-tune the small print. But this is small print Khamenei believes can make all the difference in ridding Iran of the existential threat sanctions pose to the Islamic Republic’s future. – Foreign Policy

Michael Rubin writes: In reality, reformists are just the good cop to the supreme leader’s bad cop. They seek to confuse or distract the West but have neither the desire nor courage to change regime behavior. As Rouhani prepares to leave office in August, President Joe Biden will accelerate his diplomacy in order to strike a deal before “reformists” leave office. He shouldn’t bother. To do so will only confirm naivete to the reality of the Islamic Republic. – Washington Examiner

Iraq

The House voted 268-161 Thursday to revoke the 2002 law that authorized war in Iraq, reviving a long-simmering debate over Congress’s constitutional power to declare war and the commander in chief’s latitude to send American troops into combat abroad. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. authorities pursuing a sweeping fraud investigation suspect some 4,000 Iraqis of filing fraudulent applications for resettlement in the United States as refugees, and they are re-examining cases involving more than 104,000 others, according to State Department reports reviewed by Reuters. – Reuters

Iraqi youth who have been vigorously demonstrating across the country against Iran’s political and economic overreach in Iraq shared posts on social media highlighting their longing for a morale-boosting win and showcasing their struggle for independence from Tehran, which they accuse of supporting militias believed to have murdered dozens of activists. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Bilal Wahab writes: When U.S. officials assess the Iraqi scene, they see intractable problems ranging from deep corruption to incessant power grabs by Iran-sponsored militias. The difficulty of dealing with these challenges might prompt some policymakers to balk at devising solutions, but a constructive Iraq policy can help advance both Iraqi and American interests in numerous areas. A more stable Iraq, for its part, could better defend itself against a resurgent Islamic State while curtailing Iranian influence. – Washington Institute

Middle East & North Africa

A missile attack last weekend in northern Syria left a hospital in ruins and further casualties in a residential area. But these types of attacks have become less common in Syria. Although this civil war remains among the most devastating global conflicts, the number of fatalities has decreased over the past couple of years, and in 2020 in particular. – Washington Post 

A gunman killed one person Thursday during an attack on the office of a pro-Kurdish party in western Turkey, authorities said. – Associated Press

Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh met the speakers of Morocco’s parliament and opposition politicians on Thursday during a visit to build support for the Palestinian cause after the North African nation upgraded diplomatic relations with Israel. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s air defences intercepted a drone launched by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group on Thursday toward Khamis Mushait, home to the main Saudi air base in the border region, Saudi state TV reported. – Reuters

Jordan has decided not to pursue a revival of the highly publicized desalination water project dubbed the “Red-Dead” that had long been considered a symbol of cooperation between the Hashemite Kingdom, Israel and the Palestinian Authority, KAN News reported on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post 

Steven A. Cook writes: Biden is fond of saying “America is Back,” and now, so it seems, are the Egyptians. The so-called “strategic relationship” between the United States and Egypt never lived up to the hype former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger gave it. But if Sisi wants to help rebuild the Gaza Strip, no one should be surprised if the Biden administration welcomes the assist. – Foreign Policy

China

But this year, Chinese authorities are cracking down on cryptocurrency to dial back energy consumption and meet their climate goals, sending miners scattering. And increasingly, miners are decamping for places like Texas, South Dakota, or Canada, launching a mass migration with implications for the evolving industry and the new communities that will house it. – Washington Post 

Chinese regulators have intensified scrutiny of dozens of domestic internet companies for possible antitrust violations, people familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal

The top U.S. general said on Thursday there was a low probability that China would try to take over Taiwan militarily in the near-term as Beijing has some way to go to develop the capabilities needed. – Reuters

Although Beijing says reporters are able to travel freely in Xinjiang, during a recent two-week reporting trip to the region by Reuters two journalists were tailed by a rotating cohort of plain-clothed minders who were rarely out of sight, day and night. – Reuters

China is ramping up a propaganda blitz ahead of the 100th birthday of the ruling Communist Party, with banners and billboards around the country reminding citizens to live a “civilised” life and obey authorities. – Agence France-Presse 

Chinese officials don’t care if they offend Western audiences, according to one of Beijing’s top envoys in Europe. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: China’s whole approach has been: Nothing to see here. If China refuses to budge, the proper response is to launch an investigation anyway, with international cooperation, based on sound science and dogged forensic methods. Valuable sources and important evidence may be waiting to be unearthed. Mr. Biden’s requested U.S. intelligence report is due at summer’s end, too. The quest to discover the virus origins may be arduous, but it shouldn’t be put on hold just because China refuses. – Washington Post

Tim Culpan writes: Beijing is right to trumpet this success in space, and the results ought to boost morale within its struggling chip sector. There’s no evidence yet that that this leapfrog strategy can translate into semiconductors. But with a vice premier at the microchip helm, China is leaving itself no more excuses to fail. – Bloomberg

Linda Zhang writes: This report aims to help policymakers and the public understand how countries are selected to host giant pandas. It begins with an overview of the his­tory of panda diplomacy. It then examines the rela­tionship between panda diplomacy and a country’s gross domestic product and trade volume with the PRC. Finally, the report looks at case studies of coun­tries that received giant pandas and examines how the panda loans affected their recent relationship with General Secretary Xi Jinping’s government. – American Enterprise Institute

Arthur Herman writes: As with successful previous commissions, a COVID-19 commission’s work must be rigorous in research and analysis; comprehensive in its search for answers; and unsparing in its honesty. […]The goal isn’t finding scapegoats but finding the truth. The immediate impact of this pandemic has been disastrous enough. Failing to learn from it — including to learn its origin — would extend that disaster for generations to come. – The Hill

South Asia

Police in India have summoned Twitter’s top official in the country to answer allegations that the U.S. firm did not stop the spread of a video that allegedly spread “hate and enmity”, according to an official police notice seen by Reuters. – Reuters

Sumit Ganguly writes: These two directives thus reveal that New Delhi’s fondness for secrecy, despite feints at greater openness, is going nowhere. At a time when it is facing a barrage of criticism for its attempts to stifle critical social media posts, any moves toward transparency would certainly burnish the government’s credentials. But this very partial parting (and closing) of the curtains does little to advance that goal. – Foreign Policy

Harsh V. Pant and Abhishek Mishra write: Both India and China have growing stakes in Africa as they seek to align themselves with the continent’s growth story. And they are increasingly competing with each other geopolitically. New Delhi is hoping that its sustained engagement with African nations over the last few years will yield foreign-policy dividends. And for both India and its African partners, if their engagement pays off, it could mean a relationship that is based on a partnership model. With major power fault lines sharpening across the world, India’s growing Africa engagement will perhaps be able to bring more equitable benefits to both partners. – Foreign Policy

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin went to Geneva on Wednesday with nothing to lose and flew home with almost everything he wanted — a summit that showcased his status as leader of one of the world’s two biggest nuclear powers and acknowledged that, without him, global security goes nowhere. – Washington Post 

President Joe Biden on his first foreign foray sought to cast Russia not as a direct competitor to the United States but as a bit player in a world where Washington is increasingly pre-occupied by China. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Thursday that Ukrainian membership of NATO would be a “red line” for Moscow and that it was worried by talk that Kyiv may one day be granted a membership action plan. – Reuters

The Kremlin was guarded about future dialogue with Washington on Thursday, a day after the first face-to-face meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US counterpart Joe Biden. – Agence France-Presse 

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave President Biden a rave review after their summit in Geneva, saying that although Biden looked at notes, it was clear to him that his American counterpart is “fully in the know” — unlike his “pretty” press secretary Jen Psaki. – New York Post

Jailed Russian opposition politician Aleksei Navalny, responding to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s accusations against him following a June 16 summit with U.S. President Joe Biden, has called the Russian leader “a liar who can’t stop lying.” – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Belarusian Foreign Minister Uladzimer Makey starts a two-day visit in Moscow on June 17 focusing on the status of Russian citizen Sofia Sapega, the girlfriend of the detained Belarusian opposition activist Raman Pratasevich. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

On June 5, 2021, on the sidelines of the 2021 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a video conference with the heads of the world’s main news agencies. During the conference, He Ping, president and editor-in-chief of the Chinese official news agency Xinhua, asked Putin about China-Russia relations. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Rebeccah Heinrichs writes: Giving in to Putin on Nord Stream 2 is not evidence that a sophisticated form of diplomacy is at play. It is evidence that Biden will not stand firm against Putin, and instead will try appeasement. Democrats and the media have been warning that we had a president who is effectively a tool of Russia’s efforts to weaken the West. If Biden continues down this path, they’ll be right. – Washington Examiner

David M. Herszenhorn writes: For the rest of the world, the Back-to-the-Future spectacle of Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin re-enacting Cold War diplomacy offered a clear silver lining: at least America and Russia are talking again, creating a glint of hope that the two presidents might actually be able to do business. And if Washington can finally start working with Moscow again, perhaps so can the rest of the West — especially EU countries. – Politico

Noah Rothman writes: Joe Biden’s first trip abroad as president—a whirlwind diplomatic blitz involving the G7, the NATO alliance, and a summit with the Russian president—wasn’t without its share of successes. But if Biden’s design for this principals’ conference was to deter Russia from engaging in destabilizing behavior, we have few indications that the president succeeded. Indeed, Putin likely took the measure of his American counterpart and has concluded that he has more license to test his parameters than he thought. After all, from his perspective, we need him more than he needs us. – Commentary Magazine

Africa

Gunmen killed a police officer and kidnapped at least 80 students and five teachers from a school in the Nigerian state of Kebbi, police, residents and a teacher said. – Reuters

A Swiss court will rule on Friday whether a Liberian rebel commander committed rape, killings and an act of cannibalism in one of the only civil war-era cases from the West African country to ever go to trial. – Reuters

Ethiopians will vote Monday in a landmark election overshadowed by reports of famine in the country’s war-hit Tigray region and beset by logistical problems that mean some people won’t be able to vote until September. – Associated Press

Former Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo returned to the country on Thursday for the first time in 10 years, after being acquitted of charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court. – Bloomberg

Makua Adimora writes: With Buhari no longer encumbered by elections — this is his second and final term — he’s shedding the cloak of pseudo-democracy and unveiling his draconian nature — one most of the Nigerian youth are too young to have witnessed or to understand. […]Sometimes, living in Nigeria makes you feel as if your life isn’t yours, as authorities can make sporadic decisions as they please without facing consequences. They’re always one step ahead. This is not a democracy, and Buhari is no longer pretending that it is. It’s time we drop the pretense, too.  – Washington Post 

United States

A pair of lawmakers has formed a working group in Congress to bolster U.S. government efforts to aid Americans held hostage or unlawfully detained abroad. – Wall Street Journal 

Civil liberties groups including the American Civil Liberties Union and the Asian Law Caucus are increasingly concerned about the visa fraud cases, which they say reflect anti-China bias. Defense lawyers say their clients’ real crime is running afoul of U.S.-China politics. – Reuters

The White House promised “no deliverables” on President Joe Biden’s first visit overseas, but his return has critics searching for meaning in his foreign policy agenda. – Washington Examiner

Director of policy and advocacy for the Los Angeles branch of The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR LA), Shaheen Nassar, said that antisemitism is a uniquely European phenomenon, and it was a way of persecuting a group of people for the “false historical accusation” that they are the descendants of the people of historic Palestine. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Mike Watson writes: Mr. Biden doubtless has more pleasant conversations with his counterparts than Mr. Trump did at this point in his presidency, but he has little to show for it so far. Partners in Asia turned him down on Burma sanctions; allies in Europe are keeping their options open with Russia and China. […]Mr. Biden has said “you’ve got to know the other man or woman’s soul, and who they are, and make sure they know you” to succeed internationally. He will achieve more if he remembers at the next summit that in foreign policy, it isn’t personal. It’s strictly business. – Wall Street Journal

Stephen Moore writes: President Joe Biden’s performance at the meeting with foreign leaders in Britain last week was a disgrace. Biden cut deals with Britain that sold out America’s interests, and for doing so, he won the worshipful accolades of the Europeans, the Brits, and the Canadians. It’s amazing how popular you are at a party when you pay everyone’s bills. Except Biden isn’t spending his own money, of course. He’s spending ours. – Washington Examiner

Rep. Tim Burchett writes: Recent fiascos in Central America and Russia aside, President Biden has shown weakness when dealing with adversaries such as the Iranian regime and the Chinese Communist Party. […]Instead of learning from his past mistakes, Joe Biden continues to maintain the same approach to international affairs that has failed for decades. Under Biden, our adversaries view us as weak and America as being in decline. – Washington Examiner

Edward Geist writes:  In order to forestall defeat, the Pentagon may need to envision how it could lose. […]At the very least, planners could begin formulating contingency plans to continue the fight should the opening phase of a near-peer conflict fail to go as desired. An essential first step could be to start taking the prospect of protracted near-peer conflict seriously. Whether or not U.S. policymakers want such a conflict, one may be imposed upon them — and at present, America is woefully underprepared for it. – War on the Rocks

Defense

U.S. Air Force electromagnetic spectrum operations were so meager over the last few decades that the service’s top official said recently that it had been “asleep at the wheel” on electronic warfare. – C4ISRNET

The U.S. Army is set to begin the development and integration of a high-power microwave capability to destroy small drone threats beginning in fiscal 2022, according to budget justification documents released with the financial request. – Defense News  

Lawmakers seem interested in adding to the surface navy budget in fiscal 2022 and are doing some early number-crunching to figure out what that might look like in a fiscally constrained environment. – Defense News 

The Navy submitted an update to Congress to its annual long-range shipbuilding plans, one that takes a step back from the much-talked-about standard of a 355-ship fleet and instead lays out priorities for a future distributed naval force. – Defense News 

The Pentagon submitted an abbreviated long-range shipbuilding report to Congress that does not show construction past the Fiscal Year 2022 budget request, according to the document reviewed by USNI News on Thursday. – USNI News 

The Navy’s proposal to decommission seven guided-missile cruisers from the fleet in the next fiscal year met extensive questions from House lawmakers on Thursday. – USNI News 

One of the founding fathers of the Space Force is less than enthusiastic about the new service’s push to take over responsibility from NRO for providing tactical-level intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance from space. – Breaking Defense 

Military microdrones that can flap their wings and change their wingbeat mid-flight could soon be coming to a future battlespace. – Military.com

America’s newest military service, armed with a $17.4 billion budget, must develop and acquire new offensive and defensive space technology to combat Chinese, Russian, and other foes’ orbital assets — yet the Space Force’s top buying position remains vacant. – Washington Examiner

Seth Cropsey writes: The pace of warfare today, the years needed to build new ships much less repair those damaged in battle, and the immense distance of mainland Asia from the U.S. put deterrence — along with the ability to win a conflict — at risk, absent properly designed and sufficiently numerous ships. Flatlining the defense budget makes the same amount of sense as flatlining the Coast Guard’s: None. – The Hill

Paul Poast and Dan Reiter write: American policymakers should ignore calls for cheap solutions to serious security threats. They need to assume that potential autocratic aggressors might come to doubt America’s willingness to intervene to overturn a territorial fait accompli, even if American troops from a tripwire force are killed in the attack. […]There are policy options that can shift the local balance of power in the Baltics and elsewhere. Let’s achieve peace by planning for victory rather than for human sacrifice. – War on the Rocks