Fdd's overnight brief

Russia

The United States will send an additional $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine, President Biden announced Wednesday, bolstering Ukrainian forces as they are pummeled by a Russian offensive in the country’s east. – Washington Post 

Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, defended ongoing weapons and security aid to Ukraine by saying that “the numbers clearly favor the Russians” in the war’s current state. – Washington Post  

Chinese President Xi Jinping declared his support for Russia’s “sovereignty and security” during a Wednesday phone call with Vladimir Putin, prompting a swift U.S. rebuke that nations siding with the Russian leader over the Ukraine war will be “on the wrong side of history.” – Washington Post  

Russia is scrambling to recruit men to fight in Ukraine after major losses in the early months of the war left the army stretched thin and some soldiers disenchanted. – Washington Post  

Two U.S. military veterans have gone missing in Ukraine, and it is feared they have been captured by Russian forces, family members of the missing Americans said Wednesday. – Washington Post 

Chinese President Xi Jinping re-emphasized support for Moscow’s security concerns in his second phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly four months ago, showing little sign of backing off from an entente that has alienated Beijing further from the West. – Wall Street Journal 

In the end, the battle for the Ukrainian city of Mariupol came down to a showdown over a single big industrial plant. Now, it looks like the fight over Sievierodonetsk in Ukraine’s east might go the same way. – New York Times 

Russia has torpedoed a Western-backed proposal to discuss whether its diamonds are funding war ahead of an international conflict diamond meeting in Botswana, letters seen by Reuters show. – Reuters 

An overnight Russian air-launched rocket strike hit a suburb of the northern Ukrainian city of Sumy, killing four and wounding six, the local governor said on Thursday. – Reuters 

Russia and the United States must discuss the extension of the START nuclear arms reduction treaty, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the RIA news agency in an interview on Thursday. – Reuters 

The United States imposed sanctions on Wednesday on two men linked to a Russian “ethnically motivated violent extremist group,” one of whom visited the United States to connect with far-right groups while the other funded pro-Russian fighters in the Donbas. – Reuters 

The head of Ukraine’s military on Wednesday said Russia had concentrated its main strike forces in the north of Luhansk region and were trying to attack simultaneously in nine directions. – Reuters 

Russia on Wednesday said it has offered “safe passage” for Ukraine grain shipments from Black Sea ports but is not responsible for establishing the corridors and Turkey suggested that ships could be guided around sea mines. – Reuters 

Russia said on Wednesday that the West had “shot itself in the head” by trying to limit energy imports from the oil and gas fields of Siberia due to the Ukraine conflict, in sharp contrast to China which has increased deliveries of energy. – Reuters 

The top U.S. military officer on Wednesday confirmed staggering statistics of the Ukrainian military’s battlefield losses as their war with Russia devolves into a grinding, one-sided artillery battle in the country’s east – U.S. News & World Report 

For the Ukrainian soldiers fighting to retake ground in the wheat fields and empty villages northwest of the city of Kherson, the liberation of one of Ukraine’s most strategically important Black Sea cities feels tantalisingly close. – Reuters 

A top Democratic lawmaker is pushing the Biden administration to send Ukraine armed drones and longer range artillery, he told reporters Wednesday. – Military.com 

The Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Kherson’s shipyards are prepared to in the future build ships for the Russian Black Sea Fleet, deputy head of the military-civilian administration in the Kherson region Kirill Stremousov told Russian state media outlet RIA on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post 

Editorial: The treatment of Mr. Navalny shows yet again that Mr. Putin has shifted from soft authoritarianism to totalitarianism. Russia has not been a state governed by the rule of law for a long while, but Mr. Putin is taking it back to dictatorial times. […]As for Mr. Navalny, it is clear Mr. Putin would like the world to never hear from him again. The Russian president wants to break his most troublesome critic. That makes it even more vital that everyone else speak up for Mr. Navalny, so his voice continues to be heard until the day he walks free. – Washington Post

Andreas Kluth writes: Note that the analogy of World War II does not extend to whatever Hitler did in the years after 1939. The comparison does not imply that Putin is planning a Holocaust, nor that he must eventually commit suicide — or that Russia, like Nazi Germany, must end up occupied and dismembered. To understand how Putin’s war could end, we need to observe how this tragedy unfolds, while reaching again and again for the most appropriate lessons of the past. – Bloomberg 

Caitlin Welsh, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Jennifer Jun, and Emma Dodd write: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that 8 to 13 million additional people will face undernourishment in 2022 to 2023 if Ukraine’s grain exports are unable to freely move throughout the country and overseas. Unless Russia’s war in Ukraine is swiftly curtailed, continued attacks on Ukraine’s agricultural production will not only deteriorate food insecurity in Ukraine, but will also exacerbate food insecurity worldwide. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Afghanistan

More than 100 men who worked at the British embassy in Afghanistan remain in the country, with some telling the BBC they have been beaten and tortured. – BBC  

The Air Force has concluded that air crew members acted appropriately and were not at fault for some tragic deaths during the chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan last year, when desperate Afghans clung to a military plane as it was taking off and fell to their deaths or were caught in the wheels. – Associated Press 

James Durso writes: Washington can dip its toe in by working with Central and South Asian countries on regional projects that improve economic opportunity for all. While Washington expects the Taliban to prove its good intentions to the West by changing its policies by 180 degrees, Afghanistan’s neighbors will be looking to Washington to see if the Americans can move beyond anger over the failure of the Afghanistan project and start to think strategically about the region. – The Hill  

Israel

The European Union signed an agreement with Israel and Egypt to boost gas shipments on Wednesday, tapping into the gas riches of the eastern Mediterranean as it races to secure alternatives to Russian energy. – Wall Street Journal 

It might be that turning around an ocean liner takes a while, but that doesn’t mean Europe’s U-turn on Israel — which is becoming apparent with each passing week — isn’t astounding. It is developing into a major story, even if, like President Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia, it has to do with an acute need for energy sources.  Just this week, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was in the Negev, pocketing an honorary degree from Ben Gurion University. “Europe and Israel are bound to be friends and allies,” she burbled. “The history of Europe is the history of the Jewish people.” – New York Sun 

Legislation seeking to disband the United Nations Human Rights Council’s Commission of Inquiry investigating Israel has gained support in recent weeks, amassing 34 cosponsors since its introduction this spring. – Jewish insider 

The US administration has been pushing Israel to avoid taking unilateral steps that would further damage ties with the Palestinians in the lead-up to President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel and the West Bank next month, two Israeli and Palestinian officials told The Times of Israel Wednesday. – Times of Israel 

The Israel Defense Forces said it would conduct a military drill in the Galilee panhandle in northern Israel on Thursday morning, which will include artillery fire toward the Mount Dov area on the border with Lebanon. – Times of Israel 

An Israeli court on Wednesday found a Gaza aid worker guilty of several terrorism charges in a high-profile case in which his employer, independent auditors and the Australian government say they have found no evidence of wrongdoing. – Associated Press 

Ukraine submitted a request for a half a billion-dollar loan from Israel, to help deal with its struggling economy amid the ongoing war with Russia. – Ynet 

Israeli Ambassador to Russia Alex Ben-Zvi was summoned for a reprimand by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov following last week’s attack on the Damascus airport. – Arutz Sheva 

Mustafa al-Sawaf, a senior Hamas official and one of the leading journalists in the Gaza Strip, says that the Palestinian Arab terrorist organizations are improving their military readiness ahead of the the next military confrontation with Israel. – Arutz Sheva 

The IDF, Israel Security Agency (Shabak), and Border Police forces on Wednesday conducted counterterrorism activities in a number of locations in Judea and Samaria. – Arutz Sheva 

Saudi Arabia

Saudi pro-government commentators are gloating over U.S. President Joe Biden’s planned visit next month, saying the U.S. leader’s about-turn on his vow to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” reflected the kingdom’s importance in global affairs. – Reuters 

Israel is looking to U.S. President Joe Biden’s Mideast trip next month to bolster its efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, a country with which it does not have official ties, according to Israel’s foreign minister. – Associated Press 

As President Joe Biden prepares for his meeting with Mohammed bin Salman, the powerful Saudi crown prince known worldwide simply as “MBS,” the plans of his visit are overshadowed by a mounting energy crisis that is likely to dominate their discussions next month in the coastal city of Jeddah. – Newsweek 

Simon Henderson writes: But the Biden trip is still a month away and lots can go wrong in that time. King Salman is in uncertain health. After a colonoscopy a few weeks ago (in itself a surprising level of candor), the monarch stayed in hospital for a few days of “rest.” And Iran may take the opportunity to remind its regional neighbors that it regards itself as the principal country in the area. After all, even the United States calls it “the Persian Gulf.” – The Hill 

Nadav Eyal writes: Biden’s upcoming visit in the Middle East exemplifies realpolitik diplomacy, but also shows an about-turn by the president, which is also a lesson to be learned. – Ynet 

Liz Peek writes: Finally, MBS, who had achieved some acclaim for modernizing his country, might seek to regain his footing on the world stage. Bringing down oil prices would help. – New York Sun 

Herb Keinon writes: What is clearly emerging from Biden’s upcoming trip to the Middle East is that his visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority is just a sideshow. Saudi Arabia is the main event. – Jerusalem Post 

Korean Peninsula

North Korea appears to be expanding work at its nuclear test site to include a second tunnel, a U.S.-based think tank said on Thursday, as South Korean and U.S. officials say North Korea might conduct a nuclear test any day. – Reuters 

There was no evidence that the South Korean fisheries official shot and burned by North Korean troops in 2020 intended to defect, South Korea’s maritime and military authorities said on Thursday, reversing its earlier announcement. – Reuters 

Howard W. French writes: At some point, North Korea must be convinced that the returns on continual investment in nuclear weapons and delivery systems are becoming negative, not because of threats of countermeasures and retaliation but because the devotion of so many resources into high-tech efforts with virtually no spinoff benefits for civilians in a poor society locks everyone but a tiny elite into stunted lives. Opening the door a crack to the creation of a middle class might help nourish desires for better, and if it is applied sincerely and with patience, it will take away the excuse that the country’s failures to improve the lot of its citizens is the fault of hostile others. – Foreign Policy 

Asia

Japan and Australia’s defense ministers on Wednesday vowed to step up their ties to support democratic values in the Indo-Pacific region and agreed to work more closely with Southeast Asia and the Pacific island nations where China is seeking to expand its influence. – Associated Press  

A bipartisan group of House lawmakers on Wednesday unveiled legislation that would help the Royal Australian Navy train its future submarine warfare officers with U.S. sailors. – USNI News 

China is moving to consolidate the country’s iron ore imports through a new centrally controlled group by the end of this year, as Xi Jinping’s administration seeks to increase Beijing’s pricing power over the industry. – Financial Times

Africa

Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta on Wednesday called for the immediate deployment of a new regional military force to try to stop rebel violence in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. – Reuters 

The British government vowed Wednesday to organize more flights to deport asylum-seekers from around the world to Rwanda, after a last-minute court judgment grounded the first plane due to take off under the contentious policy. – Associated Press 

The head of the U.N. refugee agency says “Europe should be much more worried” that more people from Africa’s Sahel region could seek to move north to escape violence, climate crises like droughts and floods and the impact of growing food shortages caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Associated Press 

Cybersecurity

The U.S. government has pushed new, increased funding into three technology companies since the start of the Ukraine conflict to help Russians sidestep censors and access Western media, according to five people familiar with the situation. – Reuters 

Rep. Adam Smith, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said Tuesday that the United States needs to invest far more in protecting national security communications and software. – CyberScoop 

A suspect allegedly involved in hacking Tehran municipality systems last week was identified and arrested on Wednesday, according to Fars News. The detainee is said to have been in contact with foreign intelligence services, no further details were reported. – Jerusalem Post