Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

The House of Representatives voted 422-0 to approve a bipartisan resolution calling on Russia to immediately free jailed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. The congressional resolution demands that Moscow release Gershkovich immediately and that it provide him unfettered access to U.S. consular officials during his imprisonment. – Wall Street Journal 

The Ukrainian 68th Jaeger Brigade spent the past year defending trenches in the country’s east against Russian onslaughts. Last week, they went on the attack. On Saturday, three platoons from the 68th took the village of Blahodatne from a larger Russian infantry force after a methodical firefight. – Wall Street Journal 

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency warned the Ukrainian government not to attack the Nord Stream gas pipelines last summer after it obtained detailed information about a Ukrainian plot to destroy a main energy connection between Russia and Europe, officials familiar with the exchange said. – Wall Street Journal 

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow had been able to fight off Ukraine’s counteroffensive so far but acknowledged losing a significant number of tanks and missing key equipment such as drones as fighting in southern and eastern Ukraine heats up. – Wall Street Journal 

As Ukraine launches its long-awaited counteroffensive against entrenched Russian occupiers, both Kyiv and its backers are hoping for a rapid retaking of strategically significant territory. Anything less will present the United States and its allies with uncomfortable questions they are not yet prepared to answer. – Washington Post

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pushing for tougher sanctions on missile components following an attack on his hometown of Kryvyi Rih that killed 12 people and injured more than 30. Local officials declared Wednesday a day of mourning. – Washington Post 

The leader of the United Nations atomic watchdog said Tuesday that he would cross the front lines in Ukraine’s war against Russia to investigate conditions at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, where the destruction of a nearby dam has compromised a key source of water to cool its reactors. – New York Times

Russian air forces and artillery weapons struck back against advancing Ukrainian troops on Tuesday, hammering them in the area of several southern villages that the Ukrainian Army had retaken over the past week in the opening phase of Kyiv’s counteroffensive. – New York Times 

The issue of how to define Ukraine’s future in the alliance has overtaken a second question, how to come up long-term security assurances for Ukraine. Mr. Biden’s aides are telling members of Congress they want to move to something akin to what they call “the Israel model,” which has a 10-year-long security commitment with the United States. – New York Times 

Russian missiles struck civilian buildings in Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa and eastern Donetsk region overnight, killing at least six people, Ukraine’s military and local officials said early on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Russia has not acknowledged any Ukrainian gains, and President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that for now he saw no need for a new mobilisation of fighting men to confront the Ukrainian counteroffensive launched last week. – Reuters 

Russia’s Defence Ministry released video footage on Tuesday of what it said were German-made Leopard tanks and U.S.-made Bradley Fighting Vehicles captured by Russian forces in a fierce battle with Ukrainian troops. – Reuters 

A “transparent and objective” international investigation in the blasts at the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines is needed, a high-ranking Russian diplomat to the United States said early on Wednesday. – Reuters 

The head of Russia’s powerful mercenary Wagner Group said on Tuesday he was “not sure” if his men would continue to fight in Ukraine amid a bitter standoff with the Defence Ministry after capturing the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. – Reuters

A top Russian officer has been killed in a Ukrainian missile strike during Kyiv’s counteroffensive against Russian forces, a Russian-backed official in Ukraine said on Tuesday, offering his condolences. – Reuters 

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday there were no longer any “moral limits” to stop Moscow from destroying its enemies’ undersea communication cables given what he said was Western complicity in the Nord Stream pipeline blasts. – Reuters 

Russia’s occupying forces were preparing for Ukrainian forces to attack in the Kherson region before the breach of a major dam “disrupted” Ukraine’s plans, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Because the flooding happened, the offensive didn’t take place,” Putin told a Kremlin audience, per state-run TASS. – Washington Examiner 

At least 11 people were killed in an overnight Russian missile strike on the central Ukrainian town of Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, regional officials announced Tuesday. – The Hill 

The Biden administration is rushing more armored vehicles to Ukraine as the country’s forces suffer some early losses in the early thrusts of its counteroffensive against Russia. The $325 million drawdown of U.S. military stocks announced Tuesday will also pump artillery shells and air defense missiles into the fight, in addition to sending 15 Bradley fighting vehicles to Ukraine after a similar number was lost recently in heavy fighting. – Politico 

Tom Rogan writes: The problem for Russia is that Ukraine’s will to resist is matched confidently to its capacity to resist. Russia cannot pummel Ukraine into submission because the Ukrainian people are willing to absorb the civilian losses Russia is imposing upon them. And as much as Putin likes to dangle the threat, the use of Russian nuclear weapons in Ukraine offers little better prospect for a Russian victory. […]Put another way, Russia can keep killing civilians, but its killing of civilians isn’t going to help it win this war. – Washington Examiner 

Gideon Rose writes: In Ukraine, the United States is not unilaterally imposing its will on other countries but leading a broad coalition to restore international order. It is not committing war crimes but preventing them. It is not acting as the world’s policeman or as a global bully but as the arsenal of democracy. And it has been doing all this effectively and efficiently, without firing a gun or losing a single soldier. The effort to date has been a model of how to blend hard and soft power in a single strategy. Now it’s time to finish the job. – Foreign Affairs 

Michael Peck writes: What Ukraine can’t afford is to waste its Western armor to merely recapture a few villages. It needs to master its new Western equipment. And that means an expensive learning curve. A few destroyed Bradleys can be expected from a first battle. Let’s see how Ukraine does in the next one. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Maxim Samorukov writes: Given the current state of ever-increasing tensions, it is worth pondering the question of who in Russia is more likely to press the nuclear button: a lonely autocrat obsessed with historical grandeur, or a group of gray apparatchiks bogged down in their internal squabbles? The wrong answer may cost us the planet. – Foreign Policy

Syria

The 22 soldiers who were injured in a helicopter accident in northeastern Syria on Sunday were part of the Army’s highly secretive Delta Force commando unit, which has previously carried out kill-or-capture raids against Islamic State militants in that part of the country, three senior military officials said on Tuesday. – New York Times

Airstrikes attributed to Israel over Syria’s capital early Wednesday critically wounded one soldier, Syrian state media reported. – Associated Press

The Jordanian army said on Tuesday it had downed a drone carrying drugs from Syria into its northern frontier region, and it said Jordan would not allow the border area to become a front line in an Iran-linked drug war. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

The number of deaths recorded in 2022 on migration routes inside and from the Middle East and North Africa region was the highest since 2017, according to newly released data from a United Nations agency. – Washington Post

Facing a ruinous economic crisis, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi recently decided it was time to hold talks with what was left of Egypt’s political opposition, giving its members a seat at the table after nearly a decade of repression, prison and exile. But to an authoritarian leader like Mr. el-Sisi, reconciliation only goes so far. – New York Times

A British court has ordered a London-based company that delivered the ammonium nitrate that exploded in 2020 at Beirut’s port to pay compensation to some families of the hundreds of victims, Beirut’s Bar Association said Tuesday. – Associated Press

Lebanon slid deeper into crisis on Wednesday when Hezbollah and its allies thwarted a bid by their rivals to elect a top IMF official as president, sharpening sectarian tensions and underlining the dim hopes for reviving the crumbling state. – Reuters

President Abbas’s four-day visit to the Chinese capital is described as a Palestinian attempt to revive a moribund, American-led peace process. Mr. Abbas is also trying to boost his sagging domestic support while distracting attention from his administration’s mismanagement of the economy and an increasing loss of relevance in the region, where the Palestinian cause was once a unifying rallying cry. – New York Sun

Amnesty International on Tuesday said that both Israel and the Islamic Jihad terrorist group should be investigated for “war crimes” over the recent round of violence between the sides, i24NEWS reported. – Arutz Sheva

Nashat Shawamreh writes: Nevertheless, the Negev Summit may reinvigorate the public aspect of Arab-Israeli dialogue. As each participant in the forum tries to advance their own strategic and security interests, Morocco’s role as host and its focal points during the conference will shine a spotlight on what Rabat hopes to achieve through the Negev Forum. – Washington Institute

China

As China builds its diplomatic role in the Middle East, its companies are also now racing to expand in a region that is more open to U.S. competitors than it has been in years. – Wall Street Journal

China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a phone call on Wednesday that the U.S. should stop interfering in the country’s affairs, according to a statement from the Chinese foreign ministry. – Reuters 

Hong Kong-based Frontier Services Group Ltd (0500.HK) on Tuesday denied allegations it provided training to Chinese military pilots using Western and NATO personnel, adding it was unaware of any reason for its inclusion in an export control list. – Reuters 

China began military exercises in the East China sea to the north of Taiwan on Tuesday, including live-fire exercises from warships, as the U.S and its allies conduct their drills in the Western Pacific. – Reuters 

Assuming Secretary of State Blinken goes to Beijing this weekend as planned, he will have much more to talk about with his Communist Chinese hosts than originally anticipated. The news that China is setting up a facility in Cuba for spying on America may not be at the top of his agenda but will be hard to overlook as the secretary appeals to Chinese leaders to back down from confrontation. – New York Sun

Odd Arne Westad writes: Many in the West assume that the aggressive style of Beijing’s diplomats comes from a need to show off China’s newfound strength and purpose as well as the superiority of Xi’s leadership. But it remains unclear how important extreme nationalism is to this style, and therefore whether it will necessarily be a lasting element in Chinese decision-making. – Foreign Affairs 

Ben Dubow writes:  China’s primary target audience isn’t the general populace, who hold little sway in political or economic affairs. Its focus is autocratic leaders. And for them, a global order in which all popular opposition can be chalked up to an omnipotent CIA may be all too appealing. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Europe

The front-runner to be the next chief of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will face opposition from Poland, European officials said, underscoring a rift among the alliance’s member states over its future 18 months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal 

A Dutch intelligence agency tipped off the CIA about an alleged Ukrainian plan in June 2022 to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline, Dutch national broadcaster NOS reported on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is set to unveil Germany’s first National Security Strategy on Wednesday which aims to provide an overview of the country’s foreign policy and ensure a cohesive cross-ministry approach to security. – Reuters 

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu met the head of the upper house of the Czech parliament on Tuesday as part of a European trip that has angered China. Wu, on a second trip to the central European NATO and European Union member country after a 2021 visit, met Milos Vystrcil, who has been at the forefront of Czech efforts to build closer relationship with Taiwan and visited the island in 2020. – Reuters 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko declared Tuesday that his country had already received some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons and warned that he wouldn’t hesitate to order their use if Belarus faced an act of aggression. – Associated Press

Edward P. Joseph writes: Blinken should close his tour in Brussels, with Borrell and the EU’s special representative to the region, Miroslav Lajcak. Blinken should remind these diplomats that the agreement between Serbia and Kosovo bears the EU’s name. Brussels can no longer hide behind the line that it is merely a facilitator. […]In this way, Blinken will turn the United States and EU away from confusion and crisis, sending a signal to Moscow of principled determination to consolidate the Balkans into the West, alongside Ukraine. – Foreign Policy 

North America

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police are investigating allegations China tried to intimidate a federal legislator, one of more than 100 inquiries into foreign meddling, the RCMP commander said on Tuesday. Canada has accused China of trying to interfere in its affairs through various schemes, including illegal police stations and the targeting of lawmakers. Beijing has strongly denied all such allegations. – Reuters 

An immigrant from Iraq pleaded guilty Tuesday in federal court in Portland, Oregon, to conspiring to provide material support to the Islamic State group by producing and distributing propaganda and recruiting materials online. – Associated Press

James Stavridis writes: The US needs to gather all relevant information about the Chinese facility, using its own extensive intelligence network focused on Cuba, and to harden the many juicy military targets in Florida. A growing Chinese presence in Cuba and elsewhere shows that the days of the US demanding its opponents simply depart the waters of the Caribbean are over.  – Bloomberg

Defense

Sen. James E. Risch, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, is halting a $735 million U.S. arms sale to Hungary as punishment for the country’s refusal to approve NATO membership for Sweden, a rare move aimed at pressuring Budapest into greenlighting the military alliance’s expansion ahead of a major summit next month. – Washington Post

President Biden met with NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday afternoon as a host of challenges confront the allied group, reiterating America’s commitment to protect NATO countries that neighbor Russia at a time when Moscow’s aggression is on stark display in Ukraine. – Washington Post

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday said Ukraine is making progress in its counteroffensive against Russian invaders and predicted NATO leaders will increase military assistance to Kyiv when they meet next month. – Reuters 

A House panel on Tuesday advanced legislation that would codify into law the ability of U.S. special operations units to arm irregular forces for warfare in volatile regions, portrayed by proponents as a tool for deterring competitors like Russia and China. But those activities can’t resume in Ukraine just yet. – Defense News

The Pentagon wants its regional combatant commands around the world involved more in the sales of U.S. weapons to other countries, U.S. Defense Department officials said. – Defense One

Seth Cropsey writes: History is an uninterrupted repetition of peace followed by war. Deterring another major war, one fought over dominance in Eurasia, ought to be American statesmen’s first goal. This can’t be accomplished without naval supremacy. A strong chief of naval operations is essential to the maritime defense that the U.S. requires by virtue of its geography, strategy and interest in international order. Let’s hope that Adm. Paparo makes the changes that American security needs. – Wall Street Journal

Ulrich Kühn and Heather Williams write: Once nuclear peer competitors find it in their interests, a return to more formal arms control agreements should be on the agenda. Until then, arms control that focuses on behavior might be the most promising way to manage competition and to avoid global instability and, ultimately, nuclear use. […]But it would be better than a future in which proliferation proceeds in the absence of any shared guardrails for handling the most dangerous weapons in the world.- Foreign Affairs