Fdd's overnight brief

June 13, 2025

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Israel launched a wide-ranging attack on Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership overnight, killing the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and striking dozens of targets in an operation that pushes the region into a new conflict with uncertain consequences. – Wall Street Journal

The United Nations said on Thursday that there was a full internet blackout in the Gaza Strip, likely due to military activity damaging the last cable into the enclave, that has paralyzed aid operations. – Reuters

Israel has fully coordinated with Washington on Iran and notified the United States before its strike on Iranian targets, state broadcaster Kan quoted an Israeli official as saying on Friday. – Reuters

A unit of Gaza’s Hamas-run police force said it killed 12 members of an Israeli-backed Palestinian militia after detaining them early Thursday. An Israel-supported aid group, however, said the dead were its aid workers, eight of whom were killed when Hamas attacked their bus. – Associated Press

Israel on Thursday said it deported six more activists who were detained when it seized an aid boat bound for the war-ravaged Gaza Strip. – Associated Press

Internal Hamas documents show the group has been “systematically exploiting” the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza throughout the ongoing war in order to fund its terror activities, the Israel Defense Forces said on Thursday, citing captured papers. – Times of Israel

The IDF, early Friday morning, surrounded all Palestinian cities in the West Bank immediately after it preemptively struck Iran. – Jerusalem Post

Militant group Hamas condemned fresh Israeli attacks against Iran on Friday, warning of escalation that could spread throughout the Middle East. – Newsweek

Editorial: Going after Israeli ministers while ignoring this isn’t virtuous; it’s hypocritical. And it should be called out as such.We commend US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for rejecting the sanctions and making it clear they are anything but constructive. As he put it, the sanctions “do nothing to promote a ceasefire in Gaza, bring the hostages home, or end the war.” Then he added, “We remind our partners not to forget who the real enemy is.” Sound advice, indeed. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

Israel’s strikes on Iran on Friday delivered a seismic blow to Iran’s chain of command, with Iranian officials and media reports saying that at least three of the top generals — including both the overall military commander and the leader of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps — had been killed. – New York Times

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that the United States had no involvement in Israel’s unilateral strikes on Iran but had been told that Israel considered the attack necessary for its self-defense. – New York Times

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is alive and is being continuously briefed about the situation, a security source told Reuters, following an Israeli attack on Iran early on Friday. – Reuters

Iran is planning to ‘give a harsh response’ to an Israeli attack launched early on Friday against its nuclear programme, an Iranian security source told Reuters. – Reuters

U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Friday he was ready to travel to Iran to assess the situation there after Israel carried out widespread military strikes that hit the sprawling nuclear complex at Natanz. – Reuters

On the campaign trail, U.S. President Donald Trump promised to end the world’s hottest conflicts and usher in global peace, but nearly five months in, with Israel attacking Iran and bloodshed in Gaza and Ukraine unabated, those hopes are in shambles. – Reuters

Israel launched strikes on Iran on Friday, targeting nuclear facilities, missile factories and military commanders, and Iranian media and witnesses reported explosions including at the country’s main uranium enrichment facility. – Reuters

Officials at Tehran are threatening diplomatic and military countermeasures to an American-backed resolution at the Vienna-based nuclear watchdog to censure Iran, which could eventually revive painful global sanctions on the Islamic Republic. – New York Sun

The United States on Thursday imposed travel restrictions on employees and their family members in Israel, expanding cautionary warnings for the region as tensions with Iran rise amid deteriorating nuclear talks and reports of possible plans for Israeli military action. – Times of Israel

White House envoy Steve Witkoff privately warned top Senate Republicans last week that Iran could unleash a mass casualty response if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities, according to a U.S. official and a source with direct knowledge. – Axios

IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin told a press conference  on Friday morning that Iran had launched over 100 drones toward Israel in recent hours. – Jerusalem Post

Iran appointed Habibollah Sayyari as temporary commander of the Iranian Armed Forces, and Ahmad Vahidi as temporary commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Friday morning, according to reports in Iranian media. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Its deceit exposed, Iran now says it is activating a secret enrichment site in a “secure location”—likely the mountains of Natanz—while upgrading its centrifuges at Fordow to make them 10 times as powerful. This means faster enrichment of more bombs’ worth of uranium in possibly two sites, not one, that would be difficult to destroy in a military strike. These aren’t the actions of a state ready to pursue civil energy and give up on domestic enrichment, the Trump Administration’s red line. They are the actions of a “death to America” regime that is shredding the NPT and thinks it can frighten the world all the way to a bomb. – Wall Street Journal

Erfan Fard writes: All their talk of American values, human rights, and democracy will appear hollow and meaningless. America’s support for Israel’s attack on Iran under President Donald Trump is proof of America’s standing by its values, human rights and democracy. It will atone for the 1979 US government’s ringing the bell marking the end of the patriotic, pro-Western monarchy in Iran and welcoming Khomeini and the mullahs, plunging Iran into enmity towards the west, as well as its own devastation and ruin. – Arutz Sheva

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine and Russia exchanged another group of ill and severely wounded servicemen on Thursday, officials from both countries said. – Reuters

Foreign ministers from large European countries said on Thursday they were ready to step up pressure on Russia, “including through further sanctions” involving the energy and banking sector, to weaken Moscow in its war with Ukraine. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday he planned to attend the Group of Seven summit in Canada next week and hoped to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the meeting. – Reuters

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that Ukrainian forces were gradually pushing Russian forces out of the border Sumy region, where Moscow has established a foothold in recent weeks. – Reuters

Lynne Tracy, the U.S. ambassador to Russia, will soon leave her post, her embassy said on Thursday, after serving through one of the most tense and difficult periods in relations between Moscow and Washington. – Reuters

NATO is expanding its satellite surveillance capacities to scan large swaths of land, enabling the alliance to monitor military movements in Ukraine and on Russia’s borders with its eastern members, top commander Pierre Vandier said. – Bloomberg

Syria

Israel’s army raided a village in southern Syria early Thursday to arrest several alleged agents of the Palestinian militant group Hamas. Syrian officials said one person was killed and warned that such incursions stoke regional tensions, while villagers denied having any ties to Hamas. – Associated Press

A group of six bipartisan lawmakers plan to introduce a bill that would repeal sanctions on Syria, giving a boost to White House efforts to lift restrictions on the country after the fall of President Bashar Al-Assad. – Bloomberg

Mohammed Hassan writes: The obstacles to Sharaa’s goal of rebuilding the Syrian army are numerous, and resources are scarce. The direction his government is taking is not the ideal path to building a military institution, particularly due to the exclusion of defected officers, the marginalization of their role, and the reliance on HTS fighters. Continuing this experiment and failing to address mistakes will lead to the failure of the project to build a national Syrian army that represents all Syrians. Therefore, correcting these mistakes and maintaining regional and international support, especially from the Gulf states and the United States, will be essential to the project’s success. – Middle East Institute

Middle East & North Africa

Oil prices surged Friday after Israel launched a wide-ranging attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, rattling markets and sending investors fleeing into safe-haven assets. – Wall Street Journal

Egyptian authorities have deported dozens of foreign nationals who arrived in Egypt to take part in a pro-Palestinian march and dozens more face deportation, the organisers and airport and security sources said on Thursday. – Reuters

Airlines cleared out of the airspace over Israel, Iran and Iraq and Jordan on Friday after Israel launched attacks on targets in Iran, Flightradar24 data showed, with carriers scrambling to divert and cancel flights to keep passengers and crew safe. – Reuters

Qatar recently submitted a proposal drafted with Hamas regarding a hostage deal based on the outline by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, two people familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Mohammed Mahmoud writes: Without sustained support for food security, clean water, and public health, many people in North Africa living in poverty face increased risks of hunger, disease, and mortality. Agricultural productivity could decline, rural communities may suffer, and gains in child nutrition risk being reversed. In the absence of these stabilizing forces, the region could experience growing social and economic pressures. Looking forward, North African nations will need to strengthen domestic capacities and forge new partnerships to fill the gap left by US aid, or risk falling further behind in meeting development goals. – Middle East Institute

Korean Peninsula

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said on Friday that his government would focus on easing regulations and accelerate working-level tariff talks with Washington as part of its broader support for companies on trade issues. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledged to keep building a more modern navy fleet to enhance the country’s maritime power as he attended the launching ceremony for a warship that was repaired after its earlier failed launch, state media said on Friday. – Reuters

North Korean officials reportedly rejected a letter from U.S. President Donald Trump intended to open the door for dialogue with North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un. – Newsweek

Donald Kirk writes: Trump and Kim met again, disastrously, in February 2019 when Trump walked out of their second summit in Hanoi after Kim would not agree to doing away with his nukes. Their impromptu meeting four months later on the line between North and South Korea at Panmunjom went nowhere. Since then, allied with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Kim has provided arms and ammunition for Russia’s war in Ukraine in exchange for nuclear and missile technology and much needed food. Kim doesn’t need either Trump or Lee. Soon, Lee will have to decide whom he needs more — Trump or Xi. – The Hill

China

China has issued advisories to its citizens in Israel and Iran of the “complex and severe” security situation in those countries on Friday, adding a warning to those in Israel to prepare for possible missile and drone attacks. – Reuters

China is ready to strengthen cooperation with the European Central Bank (ECB), including on reforming the international monetary system, Premier Li Qiang told ECB President Christine Lagarde at a meeting in Beijing on Thursday. – Reuters

China on Thursday affirmed a trade deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, saying both sides needed to abide by the consensus and adding China always kept its word. – Reuters

The high-level negotiations over China’s export controls of rare earths is giving U.S. businesses some relief, even though it may be only for now. – Associated Press

China’s national security authorities in Hong Kong and the city’s police launched their first publicly known joint operation, raiding the homes of six people on suspicion of colluding with foreign forces to endanger national security. – Associated Press

South Asia

An Air India Boeing 787-8 passenger jet carrying 242 people bound for London crashed into a residential area Thursday, less than a minute after taking off from the western Indian state of Gujarat. Only one person survived the crash, which was the first fatal incident for Boeing’s Dreamliner aircraft. – Wall Street Journal

India and China have agreed to expedite the resumption of direct air services and will continue to stabilise and rebuild ties, the Indian foreign ministry said on Friday. – Reuters

India described a potential meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart on the sidelines of the upcoming Group of Seven summit as an “important opportunity” to mend bilateral ties, signaling Modi is likely to attend the summit next week. – Bloomberg

Asia

The Pentagon is reviewing a defense pact with the U.K. and Australia, throwing into doubt a strategic partnership that aims to give Australia nuclear-powered submarines and deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific. – Wall Street Journal

Australia plans to significantly boost surveillance of Pacific Islands territorial waters, spending A$477 million ($310.72 million) on aerial patrols for illegal fishing fleets, tender documents viewed by Reuters show, as China takes steps towards sending its coast guard to the region. – Reuters

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has petitioned the International Criminal Court to allow his interim release to another country, his lawyer said in a filing, citing his advanced age and a vow not to flee or commit any further crimes. – Reuters

Just off the small Taiwan fishing port of Wushi on its Pacific coast, a Taiwanese company is testing what could eventually be a powerful but unglamorous new weapon in the island’s military arsenal – sea drones. – Reuters

Every evening at around 10 p.m., automatic gunfire echoes through the tiny village in Armenia, locals say – the sound of Azerbaijani troops firing into the night sky from their positions across the border, high above. – Reuters

Australia foreign minister Penny Wong said on Friday she was alarmed by the escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran, after Israel said it had struck dozens of targets inside Iran. – Reuters

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit China and Europe next week, meeting with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang and leaders of the European Union, the government said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters

The U.S. Interior Department said on Thursday it was publishing a request for information and interest to explore the potential for seabed mineral leasing offshore American Samoa. – Reuters

A Taiwanese court sentenced the Chinese captain of a ship to three years in jail on Thursday after finding him guilty of intentionally damaging undersea cables off the island in February, in a case that alarmed Taiwan officials. – Reuters

Editorial: This isn’t the conduct of an Administration that believes the Pacific is its “priority theater,” as Mr. Hegseth recently claimed in Singapore. Aukus is intended to pull Australia into a closer alliance to keep the Pacific safe for Western interests as China builds a blue-water navy. Let’s hope the Administration wraps up a perfunctory review and starts explaining how America plans to keep its Aukus word. – Wall Street Journal

Europe

Britain said on Thursday it understood a decision by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to launch a formal review into the AUKUS submarine pact, repeating London’s position that the project was crucial to peace and security. – Reuters

Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani on Thursday said his country needs at least 10 years to raise defence spending and comply with new targets due to be agreed by NATO, adding that a deal on them could soon be reached. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of joint air-to-ground missiles and related equipment to the Netherlands for an estimated cost of $215 million, the Pentagon said on Thursday. – Reuters

The annual Bilderberg Meeting kicks off in Sweden on Thursday, providing a private forum for discussion at a time when President Donald Trump has upended security and economic ties between the U.S. and Europe. – Reuters

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez asked citizens for forgiveness after his close ally quit his posts earlier on Thursday over graft allegations, and said his Socialist Party would undergo an external audit, but rejected the opposition’s calls for an early election. – Reuters

Italy selected its envoy to NATO to take over as US ambassador, seeking to maintain friendly ties with Washington as President Donald Trump upends global trade. – Bloomberg

NATO plans to bolster its missile-defense systems as part of an effort to shield the alliance’s eastern flank from attack, a move likely to stoke tensions with Russia. – Bloomberg

Africa

Protests erupted in the Kenyan capital Thursday over the death of a blogger in police custody, reigniting long-standing public anger over police brutality. – Washington Post

China will negotiate and sign a new economic pact with Africa that will get rid of all tariffs on the 53 African states it has diplomatic ties with, it said, a move that could benefit middle-income nations. – Reuters

The number of people displaced by war and persecution around the world climbed above 122 million this year due to a failure to resolve multi-year conflicts such as those in Sudan and Ukraine, the U.N. refugee agency said on Thursday. – Reuters

The United States is pressing for swift progress in peace negotiations between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with a senior U.S. diplomat underscoring an “extremely aggressive timeline” for a potential agreement as early as June or July. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department’s top official for Africa, Troy Fitrell, will retire in mid-July, a State Department spokesperson said on Thursday, adding the Africa bureau’s number two, Jonathan Pratt, will step into the role. – Reuters

The Americas

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says a bilateral meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the upcoming Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Alberta will determine how close the two sides are on a bilateral deal over tariffs. – Wall Street Journal

World leaders may face smoke warnings when they gather next week in Alberta as wildfires burned out of control across much of Canada and caused the country’s second-worst fire season in decades. – Reuters

Nicaragua has cut ties with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the U.N.’s refugee agency, the Central American nation’s Foreign Ministry said in a letter to the organization on Thursday. – Reuters

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Thursday denied a Reuters report about the U.S. pushing Mexico to investigate politicians with suspected links to organized crime. – Reuters

Latin America

Clashes between anti-government protesters and authorities in Bolivia have left at least four first responders dead, the country’s justice minister said on Thursday. – Reuters

Peru is weighing sending what it considers highly dangerous foreign inmates to prisons in El Salvador, the prime minister said on Thursday, potentially following in the footsteps of the U.S.’ deportations of migrants to the Central American nation. – Reuters

Google sued Chile-based LATAM Airlines in U.S. federal court on Thursday, seeking a declaration that Brazilian courts cannot force the tech giant to take down a YouTube video in the U.S. that accused a LATAM employee of sexually abusing a child. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that it welcomed recent measures taken by Argentina’s central bank and finance ministry ahead of a visit by the Fund to the country later in June. – Reuters

President Javier Milei of Argentina received the $1 million Genesis prize in Jerusalem on Thursday in recognition of his support for Israel as it faces a mounting international isolation over the war in Gaza. – Associated Press

A wave of terror attacks across Colombia is stirring fears of regression to the dark days of the 1990s, when cocaine cartels and guerrillas made the Andean nation the most violent on Earth. – Bloomberg

Arturo McFields writes: Iran’s sad, opaque tour of Latin America confirms that this is a good time to put an end to its terrorist regime. A drone factory and the presence of terrorist groups in Cuba and Venezuela should be a matter of deep concern and action. This grave threat cannot continue to be ignored. […] Iran has fewer allies and is economically devastated. Its allied militant groups are being defeated by Israel. Now is a golden opportunity to put an end to a fundamentalist regime that has brought misery to its people and terrorism around the world. – The Hill

United States

The Senate confirmed former Republican Rep. Billy Long to run the Internal Revenue Service, placing a consistent and vocal supporter of President Trump in charge of the tax agency. – Wall Street Journal

An appeals court late Thursday allowed President Donald Trump, for now, to keep the California National Guard deployed in response to protests in Los Angeles, blocking a federal judge’s move just hours earlier that ordered the Trump administration to return control of the troops to California Gov. Gavin Newsom. – Washington Post

The Trump administration wants to use the National Guard more broadly to enact the president’s immigration agenda, according to border czar Tom Homan, documents and people familiar with plans. – Washington Post

U.S. President Donald Trump will attend a National Security Council meeting on Friday morning, the White House said late on Thursday after Israeli strikes on Iran that have put the Middle East on edge. – Reuters

Immigrants admitted to the US from a Biden-era parole program for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela have begun receiving notices of termination urging them to depart the US. – Bloomberg

Jay Tcath writes: Attempting to define the meaning of another group’s self-understanding is likely to evoke accusations of mansplaining. But in the absence of a widely embraced peaceful definition of “Free Palestine,” being accused of insensitivity is easy to bear. We Jews are just trying to freely celebrate a Seder, visit a museum and rally for hostages. That yearning involves no duplicity or threats to others. – Jerusalem Post

Cybersecurity

A second Italian journalist was recently targeted by software made by U.S.-owned surveillance company Paragon, internet watchdog group Citizen Lab said, raising new questions about a surveillance scandal that has already led Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government and Paragon to part ways. – Reuters

The majority of justices on Brazil’s Supreme Court have agreed to make social media companies liable for illegal postings by their users, in a landmark case for Latin America with implications for U.S. relations. – Associated Press

A Belarusian hacktivist group known as the Cyber Partisans is no stranger to scrutiny from cybersecurity researchers. So when Kaspersky, a Moscow-based cybersecurity firm, published a detailed report last week dissecting the group’s alleged tools and tactics, the hackers were unfazed. – The Record

The discovery of new infrastructure linked to Predator spyware suggests the surveillance technology is still finding new customers despite its backers facing rounds of U.S. sanctions since July 2023. – The Record

Adam Segal and Sebastian Elbaum write: Otherwise, Washington will face the worst possible outcome: a superior competitor with increasing economic and military power enabled by AI, and a domestic AI industry unable to keep up, handicapped by its inability to build on Chinese models if necessary. Finishing second is not a death knell for U.S. AI, but refusing to adapt to compete would be. – Foreign Affairs

Defense

The warning by Tulsi Gabbard, director of national intelligence, couldn’t have been graver: “Political elite warmongers” have brought the world closer to the “the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before,” she said. – Wall Street Journal

NASA said Thursday it was postponing a launch of private astronauts to the International Space Station while it works with its Russian counterparts to investigate persistent leaks on the orbiting laboratory. – Washington Post

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared to acknowledge that the Pentagon has developed plans to take over Greenland and Panama by force if necessary but refused to answer repeated questions at a hotly combative congressional hearing Thursday about his use of Signal chats to discuss military operations – Associated Press

Israel Aerospace Industries hopes to be a lead player in US President Donald Trump’s “Golden Dome” futuristic air defense of the US homeland, and might have a leg up on competitors with its success with the Arrow 2 and 3 missile defense systems, but will it get picked? – Jerusalem Post

The House Appropriations Committee passed its version of the fiscal 2026 defense spending bill today in an unusually rancorous affair that saw Republicans block Democrat efforts to curtail the Trump administration’s efforts to turn a plane gifted from Qatar into a new Air Force One. – Breaking Defense

To outpace the growing threat of China’s “global manufacturing dominance,” the Pentagon should build a network of dual-use factories designed to rapidly scale weapons, legislators suggested in a report accompanying the House Appropriations Committee’s version of the fiscal 2026 defense budget. – Breaking Defense