Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Russian artillery pounded Sloviansk, one of Ukraine’s last lines of defense to protect the remaining Kyiv-held strongholds in eastern Ukraine, while the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Tuesday advanced plans to add Sweden and Finland to the alliance. – Wall Street Journal

The Russian army is transforming Europe’s largest nuclear power plant into a military base overlooking an active front, intensifying a monthslong safety crisis for the vast facility and its thousands of staff. – Wall Street Journal

The Russian Army is now on the outskirts of the town, Bakhmut, and ramping up its shelling. The attack is part of an inch-by-inch offensive into the province of Donetsk now that Luhansk, another province that Moscow has sought to capture in eastern Ukraine, fell over the weekend into Russia’s grasp. – New York Times

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday called on all parties in the world to make efforts to protect international laws as “the world is evolving in a complicated manner.” – Reuters

Food and energy security will figure prominently in a meeting of G20 foreign minister in Bali this week and the group’s members should insist Russia support U.N. efforts to reopen sea lanes blocked by Moscow’s war in Ukraine, a senior U.S. official said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Arbitrary detention of civilians has become widespread in parts of Ukraine held by Russia’s military and affiliated armed groups, with 270 cases documented, the U.N. human rights chief said on Tuesday, announcing plans to boost monitoring in the country. – Reuters

Russian parliamentary speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said on Tuesday that Ukraine was doing “everything” to ensure that Moscow’s troops would not stop their “special military operation” at the borders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) in eastern Ukraine, the RIA Novosti agency reported. – Reuters

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that conscripts were not being sent to Ukraine to fight in Russia’s “special military operation”, the Russian state news agency TASS reported. – Reuters

Russian-installed authorities in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, partly under Russian control, said on Tuesday that an agreement had been reached to sell grain abroad, mainly to the Middle East, Russian state news agency TASS said. – Reuters

Forces of the Russian-backed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics are moving towards the Donetsk region after Russian forces took full control of Luhansk region last week, the Russian state news agency TASS cited Donetsk People’s Republic leader Denis Pushilin as saying on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Russian government will be able to compel businesses to supply the military with goods and make their employees work overtime under two laws to support Moscow’s war in Ukraine that were approved in an initial vote in parliament on Tuesday. – Reuters

Russian forces struck a market and a residential area in the city of Sloviansk in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday, killing at least two people and injuring seven, according to officials. – Reuters

Switzerland has given a cool response to calls from Ukraine’s prime minister to use frozen assets of ultra-wealthy Russians to help fund his country’s $750 billion reconstruction project. – Reuters

Lysychansk was once a city of a 100,000 people in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, but it now lies in ruins after its fall to Russian forces with many residents still living in bomb shelters and basements. – Reuters

U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Tuesday he does not expect any meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov at this week’s meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Bali. – Reuters

Russian troops are engaged in heavy fighting supported by widespread artillery fire as they launch a major offensive for Ukraine’s Donetsk region, Ukrainian officials said, a day after Moscow declared victory in the neighbouring province of Luhansk. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with leaders in Mongolia on Tuesday during a trip to Asia to seek support amid his country’s diplomatic isolation by the West and punishing sanctions leveled over its invasion of Ukraine. Lavrov met with Mongolian Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh and paid a courtesy call on President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, Mongolian state media reported. – Associated Press

French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to reveal private telephone exchanges in a documentary about his failed efforts to convince Vladimir Putin not to start a war in Ukraine has drawn strongly-worded rebuke from Russia. – Bloomberg

The Russian military launched an increased number of missile strikes in Ukraine toward the end of June, with some of them striking heavily populated civilian structures. – Washington Examiner

A Russian colonel was accused of selling information on the whereabouts of his own men to foreign intelligence agencies by concerned Russians, according to Ukrainian authorities. – The Daily Beast

The United States has contributed the most by far to help Ukraine defend itself since the beginning of the year, according to a Kiel Institute for the World Economy analysis. But as reality settles in for policymakers and lawmakers that this war is not going away anytime soon, a sense of unease at just how much the United States is bankrolling the aid is emerging. – The Daily Beast

A Ukrainian lawmaker’s aide was accused by the nation’s security service of being a Russian spy and passing on intelligence for monthly payments of up to $4,000. The unnamed man was recruited during a recent trip to Moscow and reported to the Federal Security Service of Russia, according to a press release published by the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) on Tuesday. – Business Insider

Editorial: The work of defending Ukraine’s freedom, let alone countering Russian influence in Europe, is far from over. But NATO has so far shown impressive unity and determination in meeting the challenge. For that, Biden and his fellow leaders deserve credit and support. – Bloomberg

Editorial: The Biden administration has handled this crisis as incompetently as it’s handled our domestic difficulties. That does not, however, forestall taking smart, decisive action now. Putin’s Ukraine war is a war against the West as much as it is against Ukraine. There’s still time to stop him. But the clock’s ticking. – New York Post

William A. Galston writes: In addition, we should send the Ukrainian army advanced drones to bolster its intelligence gathering and its ability to attack Russian command centers. America should intensify its efforts to refill Ukraine’s stocks of ammunition and artillery shells that have been depleted by months of intense fighting. Working with our allies, the U.S. should give Mr. Zelensky’s government the estimated $5 billion a month that his government will need to maintain basic services during the economic collapse the invasion has created. – Wall Street Journal

Brahma Chellaney writes: The risk now is that, instead of the wished-for economic collapse and regime change in Russia, the Western sanctions campaign could transform global geopolitics by provoking a Russian nationalist backlash and cementing the Sino-Russian axis. – The Hill

Alexander J. Motyl writes: First, the simplistic view of the world propagated by some is dangerously wrong and should be set aside. Second, the Russians are not children but coolly calculating adults with a deep commitment to territorial expansion, political dictatorship and societal control. And third, if Russia succeeds in occupying Ukraine, it will continue to expand, because its imperialist program, fascist political system and imperialist political culture necessitate and facilitate expansion. As the director of the Hermitage Museum succinctly put it, “We are all militarists and empire builders.” Or, if Ukraine falls, Europe is next. – The Hill

Rebekah Koffler writes: As long as Russia keeps this conflict alive, even if it turns into a grinding protracted battle of attrition, Russia’s strategic goal of keeping Ukraine out of NATO is met by virtue of Ukraine not meeting one of the key requirements for the membership – absence of territorial disputes and ongoing conflict. This trajectory of this war, with its changing battlefield landscape, has proven difficult to predict. But one thing is certain. Putin will not make it stop. – Fox News

Conor M. Savoy and Janina Staguhn write: The U.S. government must utilize existing mechanisms to demonstrate transparency and provide accountability to Congress on this important money. Political dynamics in Congress demand that the administration do so. Otherwise, the flow of aid may stop, or additional oversight mechanisms will be created that disincentivize the necessary risk-taking critical for Ukraine’s success both during the war and throughout subsequent reconstruction efforts. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Natalia Antonova writes: There’s just one problem with this theory. At an event in June, leaning back casually in his chair, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that in Ukraine, he is fighting a war of imperialist conquest – not defending himself against NATO, as his apologists have repeatedly claimed – Foreign Policy

Nathalie Loiseau writes: As a result, trans-Atlantic cooperation has been unexpectedly strong in imposing sanctions, resulting in the halving of Russian imports and Russia defaulting on its debt for the first time in over a century. That’s a stark contrast to the awkward and very public disunity on display between the United States and Europe during the 2014 Russian attack on Crimea. – Foreign Policy

Afghanistan

China’s ambassador touted trade and investment plans for Afghanistan on Tuesday, a public endorsement for doing business in the Taliban-controlled country after an earthquake drew attention to the humanitarian consequences of Western sanctions. – Reuters

The Uzbek Foreign Ministry has said that five missiles fired on July 5 from Afghanistan at a city in southeastern Uzbekistan caused no injuries but slightly damaged four homes. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Fighting has been ongoing in the remote Balkhab district of Afghanistan’s northern Sar-e-Pol province over the past several weeks, part of a showdown between a cash-strapped central government run by the Taliban and locals who are trying to keep their own cut of the district’s riches. At the heart of the dispute is a battle over coal mines, and who gets to profit from them, trapping local residents in the middle. – Foreign Policy

Israel

Threats from Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah could stall Israel’s plan to deliver natural gas to Europe, Israeli officials said, as Israel’s caretaker prime minister pursued help from France to defuse a crisis over its maritime border with Lebanon. – Wall Street Journal

France urged Israel’s new prime minister, Yair Lapid, on Tuesday to restart peace talks with the Palestinians, but Lapid played down such prospects, citing rightist elements in his caretaker government ahead of a November election. – Reuters

Ben & Jerry’s on Tuesday sued its parent Unilever Plc (ULVR.L) to block the sale of its Israeli business to a local licensee, saying it was inconsistent with its values to sell its ice cream in the occupied West Bank. – Reuters

Russia has ordered the agency in charge of organizing the emigration of Jews to Israel to halt activities immediately, the Israeli government said on Tuesday, though the group said it’s continuing to operate. – Bloomberg

The Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) thwarted 172 substantial terrorist attacks in the last year, while failing to stop seven, agency chief Ronen Bar said on Tuesday at an intelligence community awards ceremony. According to Bar, the attacks the domestic spy agency prevented ranged from shootings to bombings and suicide attacks, each of which could have led to several civilian deaths. – Jerusalem Post

IDF soldiers located and confiscated approximately 15 kilograms of cocaine worth three million shekels along the Egyptian border. The soldiers operating in the area thwarted the smuggling attempt and transferred the drugs to security forces for further processing. – Arutz Sheva

Eugene Kontorovich writes: Efforts to push companies to boycott Israel won’t fade away soon. The primary goal isn’t economic harm, but making it culturally and politically acceptable to shun the Jewish state. What is most important about both the vindication of the state anti-BDS laws and the repudiation of the ice-cream embargo is their underlying message: The moralistic rhetoric of Israel boycotts can’t disguise their bigotry. – Wall Street Journal

Gil Troy writes: At the same time, start leveraging the Abraham and Sarah accords – using Emirati, Bahraini and Saudi investors for certain initiatives Palestinians might otherwise reject from Jewish investors. For example, rather than viewing current Israeli plans to develop Givat Hamatos in south Jerusalem and E1 to Jerusalem’s east as obstacles to peace, turn them into opportunities to boost quality of life. Speak to Palestinians and Israelis on the ground in Jerusalem, not the Israeli, American and Palestinian Perennial Peace Processors addicted to yesterday’s Oslo-addled thinking, who can’t think new thoughts, because they’ve built their careers around their stale ideas facilitating stalemate. – Jerusalem Post

Efraim Inbar writes: Implementing this agenda is a national security imperative for the alignment and the US should actively promote it. Moreover, it could provide a modicum of stability in a bad neighborhood. Athens and Jerusalem, the founding blocks of Western civilization, should show the way for the rest of the world. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

The U.S. Navy will for the first time reward individuals for providing information that leads to the seizure of illicit cargos such as illegal weapons or narcotics in waters across the Middle East, it said on Tuesday. – Reuters

An explosion at an arms depot in Yemen’s southern province of Abyan on Tuesday killed six people and wounded 32, medical officials said. The cause of the early morning blast that ripped through a warehouse located at a popular market in the town of Lawdar, was not immediately known. The town is controlled by forces loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognized government. – Associated Press

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was photographed shaking hands with rival Ismail Haniyeh at Algeria’s Independence Day celebrations on Tuesday in what is their first documented meeting since 2016. – Jerusalem Post

China

Now, the U.S. government is using the lessons it learned from those actions to expand restrictions on exports to China and other countries in cases where companies or groups might threaten U.S. national security or violate human rights, current and former American officials say. President Biden and his aides call China the greatest long-term rival of the United States, surpassing Russia. – New York Times

Chinese authorities refused to let Canadian diplomats attend the trial of a Chinese-born Canadian tycoon who disappeared from Hong Kong five years ago, Canada’s government said Tuesday. – Associated Press

China is willing to deepen cooperation with Russia within multilateral frameworks including the G20, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu told the Russian Ambassador to China, Andrey Denisov. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden’s team is still looking at options on whether to cut tariffs on Chinese imports to ease inflation, the White House said on Tuesday as industry requests to maintain the duties mounted. – Reuters

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had a “constructive” virtual dialogue with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday, with both sides agreeing to better coordinate macro policies, according to China’s commerce ministry. – Reuters

A move by President Joe Biden to remove tariffs on Chinese consumer goods will do little to dent inflation, economists say, and risks further hamstringing Democratic candidates in political battlegrounds. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Free-trade agreements and better digital-trade rules are in the U.S. economic and strategic interest. Joining CPTPP and striking a U.K. deal would grow the world economy and strengthen alliances. A U.S.-led pact on data exchange would increase digital trade and security before China sets the terms of that trade. Mr. Biden’s trade abdication is all the more puzzling given inflation and the risks of recession as interest rates rise. It’s another example of this White House putting politics above policies that spur economic growth. – Wall Street Journal

Asia

A land mine set by suspected communist guerrillas wounded seven soldiers in the central Philippines on Tuesday, in one of the insurgents’ first known attacks since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office last week. – Associated Press

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he’s open to military exchanges with China, as he sought ways to expand ties between the two nations beyond the South China Sea territorial dispute. – Bloomberg

A controversial Singapore law that aims to prevent foreign entities or individuals from influencing politics in the country will come into effect from Thursday. – Bloomberg

The United Nations’ food agency said it had received $17 million from Japan to address grain storage problems in Ukraine and increase its exports as global food prices remain near record levels amid war in the country. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will fly to Hanoi on Tuesday for a two-day visit to Vietnam before heading to a G20 meeting later this week in Indonesia, the Vietnamese government said. – Reuters

The United States on Tuesday urged authorities to pursue a credible investigation into deadly violence in Uzbekistan’s autonomous province of Karakalpakstan last week. – Reuters

Hisao Terasawa’s fellow voters might be fretting over rising fuel prices, stagnant wages and even shrinking chocolate bars, but the 73-year-old is focused solely on Japan’s security in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s aggression towards Taiwan. […] In Sunday’s upper house election, he plans to back Kazuhiro Kobayashi, a candidate from the ruling Liberal Democratic party, solely because of its commitment to boost defence spending and consideration of first-strike capabilities against enemy bases. – Financial Times

Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, Bryan Clark, Matthew Costlow, Timothy A. Walton, Patty-Jane Geller, Peppi DeBiaso and Oriana Skyler Mastro write: Guam’s defense is there- fore imperative. Fighting from and for Guam is challenging but eminently achievable, and its defenses must be strengthened now to dissuade the PRC from initiating aggressions against it in pursuit of one of its national priorities, the conquest of a democratic Taiwan. However, time is not on our side, and we must therefore move quickly. – Hudson Institute

Africa

Gambia and the World Bank signed a $68 million grant on Tuesday to revive the ocean-facing West African country’s tourism sector, representatives of both parties announced at a ceremony. – Reuters

A temporary administrator appointed by a Congolese court to run the world’s second-largest cobalt mine ordered majority Chinese owner CMOC (603993.SS) to suspend marketing and export of its production, letters seen by Reuters showed. – Reuters

At least two United Nations peacekeepers were killed and five severely wounded in northern Mali when a logistics convoy hit an improvised explosive device on Tuesday, the U.N. peacekeeping mission MINUSMA said. – Reuters

An Ethiopian rebel group on Tuesday denied accusations it was responsible for a massacre of civilians in the restive far west of the country, and pointed the finger of blame instead at government-allied militias. – Agence France-Presse

The president of Congo has warned that war could break out with Rwanda unless its neighbour stops backing rebel groups fighting in the east of sub-Saharan Africa’s largest nation. […] Tshisekedi’s comments follow a strong offensive in eastern Congo by the M23 armed group, which he said was backed by Rwanda. In recent weeks, the militants have stepped up attacks in a conflict that has displaced 170,000 people since the M23 resurfaced late last year, almost a decade after a peace deal was agreed. The US has voiced alarm about the cross-border attacks. – Financial Times

Cybersecurity

The government’s bitcoin holdings have lost about 60 percent of their presumed value during the recent market plunge. The use of bitcoin among Salvadorans has collapsed and the country is running out of cash after Mr. Bukele failed to raise fresh funds from cryptocurrency investors. – New York Times

The U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee chair and top Republican have called on the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to investigate social media app TikTok and Chinese parent ByteDance due to “repeated misrepresentations” over its handling of U.S. data. – Reuters

Government-ordered internet disruptions not only have human rights impacts — they come with economic costs, too. An updated report from Top10VPN released Tuesday found that there have already been more major internet shutdowns in 2022 so far compared to all of 2021 — and the economic fallout has been nearly twice as severe. – The Record

Marriott International confirmed Tuesday that unknown criminal hackers broke into its computer networks and then attempted to extort the company, marking the latest in a string of successful cyberattacks against one of the world’s biggest hotel chains. – CyberScoop

Military leaders around the world are closely watching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which just entered its fifth month, but perhaps none more than those in China are tracking the intricacies of Russia’s cyberattacks designed to further cripple Kyiv. – CyberScoop

Long War

In Iraq, the Islamic State’s rise and fall have left deep scars, and memories of the bloodshed are fresh. The question looming across the militants’ former territories is how, or indeed if, the communities that were ripped apart can be stitched back together again — and whether they will accept their former neighbors returning from the camp. – Washington Post

France brought home 16 wives of jihadists from sprawling detention camps in northeastern Syria on Tuesday, breaking with a policy that for years had ruled out repatriating and trying adult women who had left to join the Islamic State. – New York Times

Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said the East African country should negotiate with al-Shabaab instead of pursuing a military-only strategy against the extremist group. – Bloomberg