Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israel wants to resume truce talks with Hamas soon Hamas orders Gaza clan leader to surrender, accuses him of treason Iranian Nobel laureate says war dealt big blow to fight for democracy Pentagon says U.S. strikes delayed Iran’s nuclear program by up to two years Iran suspends cooperation with U.N. Atomic Agency Former National Security Advisor John R. Bolton: Trump’s work in Iran has only begun WSJ Editorial: Trump stiffs Ukraine on arms North Korean tech workers infiltrating companies around world, U.S. says Relations nosedive between Russia and former close ally Azerbaijan UK lawmakers approve ban of Palestine Action as terrorist group 2 Chinese nationals charged with spying inside the US for Beijing, Justice Department says Lexington Institute’s Rebecca Grant: Trump lit a fire under NATO, but more needs to be done to contain the Russia-China axisIn The News
Israel
Relations between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have had plenty of ups and downs. As the two leaders prepare for a White House visit set for next week, things are decidedly on the upswing. – Wall Street Journal
Israel’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that there were encouraging signs in the U.S.-led efforts to restart intensive cease-fire negotiations with Hamas, adding that Israel was eager for talks to resume “as soon as possible.” – New York Times
Cabinet ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party called on Wednesday for Israel to annex the Israeli-occupied West Bank before the Knesset recesses at the end of the month. – Reuters
The Hamas-run interior ministry in Gaza on Wednesday ordered the leader of a well-armed Bedouin clan defying the group’s control of the Palestinian enclave to surrender and face trial, accusing him of treason. – Reuters
Israel’s 12-day war with Iran last month has dented its economy but investors and Israelis are hopeful that a U.S.-brokered halt to hostilities could bring an economic “peace dividend” with the country’s neighbours that has been a dream for decades. – Reuters
A U.N. expert on Thursday called on states to impose an arms embargo and cut off trade and financial ties with Israel, which she alleged is waging a “genocidal campaign” in Gaza. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump says Israel has agreed on terms for a new 60-day ceasefire with Hamas and that Washington would work with both sides during that time to try to end more than 20 months of war in Gaza. – Associated Press
Airstrikes and shootings killed 94 Palestinians in Gaza overnight, including 45 who were attempting to get much-needed humanitarian aid, hospitals and the Health Ministry said Thursday. – Associated Press
Some 10,000 Israelis still remain displaced from their homes due to rocket damage sustained during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran, including about 2,000 new immigrants, Labor MK Gilad Kariv told a meeting of the Knesset’s Immigration, Absorption and Diaspora Committee Wednesday. – Times of Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition is considering inviting Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party to join the government if the far-right Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism parties quit in the wake of Israeli acquiescence to an accord that ends the Gaza war, according to a Wednesday report, as Israel’s political parties begin to shuffle ahead of a potential hostage-ceasefire deal. – Times of Israel
The IDF struck a terrorist cell in northern Gaza after it fired rockets toward Israel on Wednesday, triggering sirens in Sderot and its surrounding areas, the military announced Thursday morning. – Jerusalem Post
During Operation Rising Lion, IAF pilots suggested using excess munitions from strikes against Iran on Gaza targets, which provided significant assistance to IDF ground forces operating in the enclave at the time. – Jerusalem Post
David E. Rosenberg writes: Both would be politically popular with the mass of Israeli voters, but Netanyahu’s coalition partners and much of his base would not look favorably on either measure. His far-right partners want to continue fighting in Gaza with the barely concealed aim of expelling its Palestinian population and rebuilding the Israeli settlements there that were evacuated in 2005. They will oppose any gestures toward a Palestinian state, which is likely to be a Saudi condition for normalization. – Foreign Policy
Iran
After Israel’s 12-day war dealt a severe blow to the leadership of Iran, one of the country’s leading human-rights defenders warns that authorities will turn on their own people to consolidate power. – Wall Street Journal
Pentagon intelligence officials assess that the U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities set back Tehran’s program by up to two years, the Defense Department said Wednesday, a more modest claim than President Trump’s assertion that the attack had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear efforts. – Wall Street Journal
Iran said it was suspending cooperation with the United Nations atomic agency, denying international inspectors the chance to assess the damage done by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on its main nuclear sites and setting up a new clash with Washington and other Western powers. – Wall Street Journal
President Donald Trump has said he wants to prosecute those responsible for the leak of classified intelligence about U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and suggested his government could pressure journalists who covered the leaked intelligence report to reveal their sources. – Washington Post
An axiom in the national security world says you cannot bomb a country into giving up its nuclear weapons programs. The attack itself only reinforces a country’s determination to build the ultimate deterrent. – New York Times
Afghan citizen Enayatullah Asghari watched dismayed after Israel and Iran launched strikes on each other last month, as the Gulf nation where he had sought refuge turned more hostile, work on Tehran building sites dried up and he was accused of spying. – Reuters
A bipartisan pair of lawmakers has proposed authorizing President Donald Trump to transfer B-2 stealth bombers and 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs to Israel if Iran is found to still be developing a nuclear weapon after last week’s strikes. – Fox News
Once a revolutionary militia, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps built power through ideology and fear. Now, after devastating losses, its future is uncertain. – Fox News
Two French nationals detained for more than three years in Iran have been charged with spying for Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad, diplomatic and family sources told AFP on Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse
Contrary to the belligerent rhetoric coming from the Iranian regime’s leadership, there is currently no sense of urgency or concrete preparation for an attack, Dr. Menachem Merhavi, a researcher specializing in modern Iran and Shia Islam, told Maariv in an interview published Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
Following Israel’s green light for the Qatari hostage deal proposal, which is essentially the Witkoff framework with some modifications, officials in Israel, the US, and the mediating countries are now awaiting Hamas’s response. – Jerusalem Post
John R. Bolton writes: Israel most likely has the resolve to do what is necessary to ensure its survival. The real question for America’s survival is whether the same can be said for the current U.S. administration. – New York Times
Javier Blas writes: The 12-day war between Israel and Iran – with the later involvement of the US – hasn’t changed the situation on the ground for the Islamic Republic’s oil industry. In limited airstrikes, Israel damaged only a couple of Iranian petroleum assets that were quickly repaired. The White House quietly intervened to stop the war spilling into the energy sector. It will come in handy for Tehran during the reconstruction. – Bloomberg
Wladimir van Wilgenburg writes: For now, there are no immediate signs that the conflict has destabilized the regime to the point that internal collapse is possible. And so as Iran instead cracks down on its perceived internal enemies, Iranian Kurdish parties will likely remain cautious in public while doing what they can to ensure that Kurds inside Iran do not continue to bear the consequences of the war – Washington Institute
Hal Brands writes: Nearly a decade ago, former under secretary of defense Eric Edelman and I wrote that the US was sliding toward a strategy of bluff: trying to do too much with too little, and thereby leaving itself vulnerable to catastrophe if the bluff is ever called. Midnight Hammer is an impressive display of US muscle. It’s also a warning of how badly overstretched the sole superpower has become. – American Enterprise Institute
Tevi Troy writes: As long as autocratic nations like Iran continue to act like Monty Python’s Black Knight, they’ll never develop the capacity to fight effectively against nations that can critique themselves. But that isn’t all that truth telling can bring. If Iran ever does develop the capacity for honesty, then its leaders would realize—like the Egyptians did—that peace with Israel is a much more effective strategy than fighting with it. – Wall Street Journal
Russia and Ukraine
A few months ago, Oleh Voroshylovskyi, the commander of a Ukrainian unit tasked with shooting down Russian drones attacking Kyiv, received a coveted American weapon to aid in their mission — a Browning machine gun capable of firing rounds at targets over a mile away. – New York Times
Ukrainian officials scrambled to clarify Washington’s intentions Wednesday after the United States announced it was halting deliveries of air defense munitions to Ukraine — weapons the country desperately needs as Russia pummels it with unprecedented waves of aerial attacks. – Washington Post
Russia has made incursions near two towns key to army supply routes in eastern Ukraine, a Ukrainian military official said on Wednesday, as Moscow seeks a breakthrough in a summer offensive at a time of uncertainty over U.S. support for Kyiv. – Reuters
Ukraine is forging ahead with early plans for joint weapons production with some international allies, top officials said, while warning Wednesday of potential consequences of the U.S. decision to halt some arms shipments promised to help Kyiv fight off Russia’s invasion. – Associated Press
Editorial: In other words, in a war of attrition, Russia has the advantage. What Ukraine did have was the firm backing of the United States. Now, with Trump’s weapons freeze, that is in question. If Russia prevails in its war of aggression, it will not be because of lack of Ukrainian resolve. It will be because of American fecklessness. – Washington Post
Editorial: The latest arms decision against Ukraine looks like another signal to Mr. Putin to continue the war. And why not? He can keep banking territorial gains while Mr. Trump keeps begging the dictator, pretty please, for a truce. – Wall Street Journal
Jake Sullivan writes: Mr. Trump has tried to frame the debate over the Russia-Ukraine war as a choice between peace and endless fighting. But the real choice is between a true peace reached by supporting Ukraine in effective negotiations and a false peace reached by implicitly surrendering to Mr. Putin. Despite everything, the path to a true peace is still open. Mr. Trump should take it. – New York Times
Syria
Austria is preparing to deport a Syrian man whose asylum status was revoked due to a criminal conviction, in what an EU official and rights groups say will be Europe’s first forced deportation to Syria since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters
Syrian state media reported Wednesday that statements on signing a peace deal with Israel were “premature,” days after Israel said it was interested in striking a normalization agreement with Damascus. – Times of Israel
By strengthening ties with Israel, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is essentially trying to reduce Turkish influence in Damascus, Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies’s Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak told Maariv on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
Samer al-Ahmed writes: The new Syria is entering a phase of unprecedented competition for influence in the country between Russian, Turkish, American, Iranian, and Israeli forces. Given the destabilizing role played by Russia’s ongoing military presence on Syrian soil, a complete withdrawal of Russian troops would be the optimal outcome for Syria’s future as well as for the Western alliance. But if that is not possible, robust coordination between the West and the Syrian transitional government could use the highly dynamic present situation as an opportunity to at least clip Moscow’s regional wings through an agreement that limits the latter’s presence in exchange for diplomatic gains that allow the Kremlin to save face. Conversely, a failure of coordination and escalating conflict could turn Russian bases into persistent hotspots of violence and undermine the authority of the new Syrian government. – Middle East Institute
Turkey
Turkish authorities on Wednesday arrested four staff members of a satirical magazine on charges of inciting “public hatred and enmity” over a controversial cartoon that officials claim depicts the Prophet Muhammad, Turkish state television reported. – Associated Press
Pope Leo told Turkish First Lady Emine Erdogan that he aims to visit Turkey at the end of November, according to a readout of their meeting at the Vatican on Wednesday by the Turkish presidency. – Reuters
By strengthening ties with Israel, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is essentially trying to reduce Turkish influence in Damascus, Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies’s Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak told Maariv on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF arrested members of an Iranian terrorist cell while operating in southern Syria following receiving special intelligence from interrogations of other Syrian operatives by the elite Unit 504, the military said on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
Middle East & North Africa
Major stock markets in the Gulf rose in early trade on Thursday, as the non-oil private sector showed steady growth, while investors also awaited a U.S. job report for clues on how soon the Federal Reserve could lower borrowing costs – Reuters
Saudi Arabia and Indonesia signed several deals and memorandums of understanding worth around $27 billion between private sector institutions in fields including clean energy and petrochemicals, Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Wednesday. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia’s Air Defense Forces announced the inauguration of its first battery in the US THAAD missile defense system on X/Twitter on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
Korean Peninsula
The North Korean government, struggling under the weight of international sanctions, has for years seeded companies in the United States and elsewhere with remote tech workers camouflaged by false and stolen identities to generate desperately needed revenue, federal prosecutors say. – New York Times
It was a sight unlike any most North Koreans had probably ever seen: their nation’s leader, Kim Jong-un, looking somber and leaning over a coffin draped in their flag. The moment, as shown on state television, showed the remembrance of troops killed in Russia’s war against Ukraine, a conflict in which Mr. Kim tried to parlay their sacrifices into expanding military ties with Moscow. – New York Times
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung vowed on Thursday to implement a “bold” fiscal policy to boost a flagging economy after the country’s martial law crisis and to tackle challenges posed by looming U.S. tariffs and North Korea. – Reuters
South Korea’s parliament approved on Thursday a revision to rules governing martial law, in a move that comes after the country was shocked by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s sudden declaration of martial law in December. – Reuters
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said that it remained unclear whether Seoul and Washington could conclude their tariff negotiations by the deadline set by President Donald Trump for next week, noting Thursday that both nations were still working to clarify their positions and identify areas of agreement. – Associated Press
China
The European Union’s top diplomat urged China’s foreign minister on Wednesday to end restrictions on rare earths exports and warned that Chinese firms’ support for Russia’s war in Ukraine posed a serious threat to European security, the EU said. – Reuters
China is willing to enhance communications with the European Union and make sound preparations for the next China-EU leaders’ meeting, a Chinese foreign ministry statement quoted Foreign Minister Wang Yi as saying on Wednesday. – Reuters
China’s embassy in Fiji denied on Thursday that Beijing wanted a military base or sphere of influence in the Pacific Islands, after Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka said islands were trying to cope with a powerful China seeking to spread its influence. – Reuters
China firmly supports establishing a Southeast Asia nuclear weapon free zone and has made clear its willingness to take the lead in signing the treaty, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on Thursday. – Reuters
A senior Chinese official said he was “optimistic” about the future of his nation’s ties with the US, among the most upbeat comments given by Beijing in recent weeks about a relationship upended by Donald Trump’s trade war. – Bloomberg
South Asia
U.S. and India trade negotiators were pushing on Wednesday to try to land a tariff-reducing deal ahead of President Donald Trump’s July 9 negotiating deadline, but disagreements over U.S. dairy and agriculture remained unresolved, sources familiar with the talks said. – Reuters
In a cramped guesthouse in Pakistan’s capital, 25-year-old Kimia spends her days sketching women — dancing, playing, resisting —in a notebook that holds what’s left of her hopes. – Reuters
Bangladesh’s ousted and self-exiled Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was sentenced to six months in prison by the country’s International Crimes Tribunal on Wednesday in a contempt of court case, a top prosecutor said. – Reuters
Asia
A sparsely populated string of islands in southwest Japan has experienced more earthquakes than it has people over the past two weeks, recording more than 800 tremors strong enough to be felt on land. – New York Times
Thailand’s opposition parties said on Thursday that they will hold off on launching a no-confidence vote against suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra pending a court ruling, but they vowed to work together to avoid political deadlock. – Reuters
Thailand’s new Cabinet members took their oaths of office Thursday, including the suspended prime minister who is under an ethics investigation for her remarks to a senior Cambodian leader. – Associated Press
President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam Wednesday that would allow U.S. goods to enter the country duty-free. Vietnamese exports to the United States, by contrast, would face a 20% levy. – Associated Press
Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a tough test in an upper house election later this month as his minority government struggles after its major defeat in last year’s snap election. – Associated Press
Australia said its A$2 billion ($1.3 billion) purchase of supersonic missiles from the United States underscores its commitment to defense spending, though Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has resisted US calls to agree to a target of 3.5%. – Jerusalem Post
Europe
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, an oil-rich former Soviet republic, have dramatically deteriorated after a campaign of arrests against each other’s citizens that could herald a major realignment in a region once seen by Moscow as its backyard. – Washington Post
British lawmakers voted on Wednesday to ban pro-Palestinian campaign group Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation, after its activists broke into a military base and damaged two planes in protest at what it says is Britain’s support for Israel. – Reuters
Four pro-Palestinian activists have been charged after breaking into a military air base in central England last month and damaging two planes in protest against Britain’s support for Israel. – Reuters
An arson attack on a restaurant and supermarket in Estonia last year were ordered by Russian intelligence, an Estonian court said Wednesday. The attack was one in a series across Europe tracked by The Associated Press and linked to Russia by Western officials. The goal, they asserted, is to sow division in Western societies and undermine support for Ukraine. – Associated Press
The European Union is striving to project unity as it races to negotiate a high-stakes trade deal with Washington, but backstage, national divisions threaten to weaken its negotiating hand. – Politico
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman James Risch (R-ID) issued a sharp warning Tuesday, accusing Ireland of embracing antisemitism and threatening potential economic consequences if the Irish government proceeds with new legislation targeting Israeli trade. – Algemeiner
Alexander Kolyandr writes: Now that Russia is on a deteriorating economic path, these hurdles may be more damaging than during the years of growth. To achieve this, Europe needs to constantly adjust its sanctions policy so that Russian businesses need to spend to adapt to every new turn of the screw. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
Rwanda has exercised command and control over M23 rebels during their advance in eastern Congo, gaining political influence and access to mineral-rich territory, according to a confidential report by a group of United Nations experts. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump will host leaders from five African nations in Washington next week to discuss “commercial opportunities,” a White House official said on Wednesday. – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund said it remained engaged with Senegal as the West African country’s prime minister promised a recovery plan to clean up billions in debts that were not disclosed by the previous administration. – Reuters
Five Ugandan soldiers were killed when a military helicopter serving the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia crashed Wednesday at an airport in the capital, Mogadishu, according to Ugandan authorities. – Associated Press
Armed men attacked a Mali community just over the border from Senegal, Mali’s military said Tuesday — a development that one expert called especially worrying as the deadly violence spreads. – Associated Press
The Americas
An A.I.-generated smear video falsely accusing an Argentine journalist of incest has been circulating widely online — and the country’s president is mocking the victim. – New York Times
A federal judge on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump’s asylum ban at the U.S.-Mexico border, saying Trump exceeded his authority when he issued a proclamation declaring illegal immigration an emergency and setting aside existing legal processes. – Reuters
Haiti’s gangs have gained “near-total control” of the capital and authorities are unable to stop escalating violence across the impoverished Caribbean nation, senior U.N. officials warned Wednesday. – Associated Press
Brazil’s Federal Senate has passed a law establishing an official Day of Friendship with Israel, signaling growing pushback against President Lula da Silva’s increasingly hostile stance toward Jerusalem – Algemeiner
United States
House Republican leaders overcame a critical hurdle Thursday to advance President Donald Trump’s massive tax and immigration legislation, paving the way to pass the legislation in the morning. – Washington Post
Democrats are planning to make President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package central to their efforts to retake the House in next year’s midterm elections, arguing that its deep cuts to Medicaid and food assistance put them at a distinct advantage over Republicans trying to sell the bill’s tax and immigration provisions to voters. – Washington Post
President Donald Trump on Tuesday escalated his attacks on Zohran Mamdani, the newly elected Democratic nominee for New York mayor, saying he’d have him arrested if he blocks Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids in New York. – Washington Post
Two Chinese nationals have been charged with spying inside the United States on behalf of Beijing, including by taking photographs of a naval base, coordinating a cash dead-drop and participating in efforts to recruit members of the military who they thought might be open to working for Chinese intelligence. – Associated Press
Rebecca Grant writes: U.S. armor, airpower and command and control are still the beating heart of NATO’s military power. Surging NATO to 5% is the only way to keep U.S. forces flexible enough to deter the global menace that is the China-Russia axis. – Fox News
Cybersecurity
Brazil’s central bank said on Wednesday that technology services provider C&M Software, which serves financial institutions lacking connectivity infrastructure, had reported a cyberattack on its systems. – Reuters
A cyber hacker broke into a database containing the personal information of millions of customers, Qantas (QAN.AX), opens new tab said, in Australia’s biggest breach in years and a setback for an airline rebuilding trust after a reputational crisis. – Reuters
The European Union wants to speed up quantum computing, but cybersecurity officials warn that it comes with a gargantuan risk: an impending quantum security doomsday. – Politico
Defense
New bipartisan legislation reintroduced in the Senate this week aims to ensure all combat boots worn by U.S. service members are manufactured entirely in the United States. – Defense News
The U.S. Army will test a nascent capability to effectively preposition equipment and supplies forward in the Pacific theater in Australia during the large-scale exercise Talisman Sabre kicking off this month, according to U.S. Army Pacific Command commander Gen. Ronald Clark. – Defense News
The Philippines is ramping up its maritime defense posture with plans to establish and upgrade several naval bases in critical areas across the archipelago, including an island base under a basing agreement with the United States and a former American base in Luzon. – Defense News
The Army is laying the groundwork for a sweeping expansion of its artificial intelligence capabilities, creating new career fields as the service races to prepare for what top officials see as a tech-driven future fight. – Military.com