Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel’s government authorized a retaliatory strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon, amid an American-led diplomatic push to contain the fallout from a strike that killed 12 young people in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. – Wall Street Journal

A rocket strike on a soccer field full of young people in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights left a scene of carnage Saturday and threatened to escalate the already tense standoff on the Lebanese border. – Wall Street Journal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu entered a volatile U.S. political arena this week, hoping to burnish his image with a fiery speech to Congress and shore up support from both President Biden and Donald Trump for Israel’s war against Hamas. – Wall Street Journal

Rights groups say conditions in Israel’s jam-packed prisons have deteriorated dangerously since the Hamas attacks on Israel. Former Palestinian prisoners described routine beatings, often carried out on entire cells or sections, usually with batons and sometimes with dogs. They said they were denied sufficient food and medical care and were subjected to psychological as well as physical abuse. – Washington Post

The Israeli army ordered the evacuation of several neighborhoods in southern Gaza on Saturday, the latest in a series of such directives recently that have forced tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians to relocate yet again. – New York Times

An Israeli drone strike outside the southern Lebanese town of Shaqra on Monday killed two people and wounded three, including a child, Lebanese civil defense said. – Reuters

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ support for Israel’s security is “ironclad,” her national security adviser Phil Gordon said on Sunday, adding that she has been briefed and is closely monitoring a rocket attack on a football ground in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. – Reuters

Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Israel was approaching an all-out war against Hezbollah and Lebanon after a rocket attack on a football ground in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights killed ten people on Saturday, Axios reported. – Reuters

Israeli airstrikes hit a school used by displaced Palestinians in central Gaza on Saturday, killing at least 30 people including several children, as the country’s negotiators prepared to meet international mediators about a proposed cease-fire. – Associated Press

The Israel Defense Forces is investigating footage posted to social media over the weekend showing combat engineers blowing up critical water infrastructure in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. – Times of Israel

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir received video footage of hostages being tortured by Hamas in Gaza, sources claimed on Sunday, in an attempt to force him to improve conditions for Palestinian security prisoners in Israel. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s handling of the situation, including his delayed return from the US, highlights a growing dissatisfaction among Israelis. However, it is imperative that the nation comes together to face the real enemies: Hamas and Hezbollah. Gantz’s call for a collective response to Hezbollah’s attack underscores the need for unity. The international community must also step up, pressuring Lebanon to curb Hezbollah and warning Iran to stay out of the conflict. The memories of the children in Majdal Shams demand nothing less. – Jerusalem Post

Jonathan D. Strum writes: The leaders of the anti-coup demonstrations, including former high-ranking Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officers and members of the Startup Nation high-tech community, were vilified by Netanyahu. IDF’s chief of staff tried to meet with Netanyahu on multiple occasions to brief him on how the judicial “coup” was harming IDF preparedness, but Netanyahu refused to meet with him. The political theater of Netanyahu’s speech was undeniable, but its substance was less than credible. – The Hill

Jonathan Panikoff writes: The Biden administration would be under severe pressure in such a situation to try to help defend Israel — just as it planned to do had Hezbollah launched a major attack against it in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack. Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader, Hasan Nasrallah, said that Cyprus could be a target, perhaps most notable because the small European island nation is home to the United Kingdom’s Mediterranean military bases.  – The Hill

Russia & Ukraine

With Russia’s economy isolated and Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian regime seeking conscripts, hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. They first went to Armenia, Turkey and nearby countries, nations where the long hand of Moscow’s security services felt close.  – Wall Street Journal

Long-awaited F-16 fighter jets are set to be flying in Ukraine within weeks, but Ukrainian and Western officials now caution that the aircraft, once championed by Kyiv as a game changer, are unlikely to make an immediate impact on the battlefield, where Russia is slowly advancing. – Washington Post

Russian forces have mounted an arc of attack in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, pushing through intense summer heat in a bid to extend Moscow’s steady territorial gains and capture the city of Pokrovsk, a key transit junction. – Washington Post

Kyiv launched more than two dozen drones on the Russian region of Kursk in several waves of attacks that started Saturday night and damaged an oil depot, Russian officials said on Monday. – Reuters

Three tanks at an oil storage depot in Russia’s Kursk region caught fire as a result of a Ukraine-launched drone attack, acting regional Governor Alexei Smirnov said on Sunday. – Reuters

Russia’s defence ministry said on Saturday that its forces had taken control of the settlement of Lozuvatske in the Pokrovsk sector of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, site of some of the most heated frontline battles in the 29-month-old war. – Reuters

Russia may deploy new strike weapons in response to the planned U.S. stationing of longer-range and hypersonic missiles in Germany, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday. – Associated Press

Bernard-Henri Lévy writes: “We are grateful to President Macron,” he says. “The steadiness of his support, as well as his willingness to send us instructors, is appreciated. But we need more in order to respond to this barbarism and, through our response, to enable Europe to stand up to it. Planes. Cannons. Notably your Caesar howitzers, which are among the best in the world but which we don’t have enough of.” France riding to the rescue of Ukraine? Europe taking over from an America that the Ukrainians know may soon be led again by Mr. Trump? That may be the message. – Wall Street Journal

Max Primorac writes: It won’t be easy, of course. Post-war reforms are politically difficult, as powerful domestic leaders often fight to maintain their privileges. But if Ukraine’s leadership doesn’t make major changes, European companies could choose to compete for risk-free donor-funded reconstruction contracts rather than risk their own capital. Likewise, global private equity will look elsewhere to invest. Even many Ukrainians might hold onto their money and seek new lives in a Europe eager to attract an educated workforce. – The National Interest

Turkey

President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that Turkey might enter Israel as it had done in the past in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, though he did not spell out what sort of intervention he was suggesting. – Reuters

Turkish artillery battered Kurdish separatist positions across northern Iraq over the weekend, hitting at least 25 targets and “neutralizing several terrorists,” according to defense and security officials. – Jerusalem Post

Hours after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to threaten to invade Israel in support of the Palestinians, Ankara’s Foreign Ministry compared Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler in a Monday statement. – Times of Israel

Libya

Twelve Libyan officials were convicted and sentenced on Sunday for their roles in a disaster that killed thousands of people and wrecked a huge swath of eastern Libya, the country’s top prosecutor said. – New York Times

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) on Sunday denied holding negotiations to supply crude oil to a refinery in Nigeria. A senior executive with Nigeria’s Dangote refinery told Reuters last week that it was in talks with Libya to secure crude for the 650,000 barrels per day plant. – Reuters

South African police arrested 95 Libyan nationals in a raid on a suspected secret military training camp on Friday and authorities said they were investigating whether there were more illegal bases in other parts of the country. – Associated Press

Korean Peninsula

South Korea was investigating a leak from its top military intelligence command​ that ​local news media said had caused a large amount of sensitive information, including personal data on the command’s agents abroad, to end up in North Korea, its military said Saturday. – New York Times

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected on Sunday flooded areas near the country’s border with China after 5,000 people were affected, state media KCNA said on Monday. – Reuters

North Korea vowed to “totally destroy” its enemies in case of war when leader Kim Jong Un gives an order, state media KCNA reported on Sunday. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday a recently announced guideline on the operation of U.S. nuclear assets on the Korean peninsula is certain to add security concern in the region, South Korean and Russian news agencies reported. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said it was a sacred mission of the current generation to build a “paradise for the people” based on the ideology defended by a previous generation of victors with their blood as the country marked the Korean War anniversary on Saturday. – Reuters

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has promised to expand cooperation with Pyongyang in a message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s foreign ministry said on its website on Friday. – Reuters

China and South Korea should avoid interference from external factors and expand common interests, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his South Korean counterpart on Friday. – Reuters

North Korea may be considering a nuclear test near the time the US presidential election is held to raise its profile, South Korea’s defense minister said, as Kim Jong Un rolls out new warheads capable of striking the US and its allies in Asia. – Bloomberg

South Asia

But now, as Harris nears a presidential nomination, India seems to view her differently. While her identity may continue to excite the Indian diaspora in the United States, in the homeland observers are not only more muted on her connections but also uncertain about her strategic stance toward the subcontinent. – Washington Post

Foreign ministers of the Southeast Asian regional bloc ASEAN on Saturday condemned violence against civilians in military-ruled Myanmar and urged all parties to end hostilities and follow an agreed peace plan. – Reuters

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Friday that Pakistan was trying to stay relevant through “terrorism” and “proxy war” but such a strategy would never succeed. – Reuters

Malaysia’s foreign ministry said Russia will back the Southeast Asian country’s application to join the BRICS economic bloc as Moscow looks to expand its influence into the Global South. – Bloomberg

Europe

France’s rail network was the target of a major act of sabotage Friday, hours before the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, bringing services on several high-speed rail lines to a halt in disruptions that are expected to last for days. – Wall Street Journal

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his new Labour government will not continue with his predecessor’s objection to the International Criminal Court’s right to issue an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the conduct of the war in Gaza. – Washington Post

French police have opened an investigation into death threats received by three Israeli athletes at the Paris Olympic Games, the Paris’ prosecutors office said on Sunday. – Reuters

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni vowed on Sunday to “relaunch” cooperation with China, signing a three-year action plan during her first official visit to Beijing since taking office. – Reuters

Germany Finance Minister Christian Lindner has warned the country’s Defence Minister that there will be no additional money to modernise the armed forces beyond what the coalition government has already agreed. – Reuters

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Saturday Russia’s leadership was “hyper rational” and that Ukraine would never be able to fulfil its hopes of becoming a member of the European Union or NATO. – Reuters

The former head of Greece’s EYP intelligence service has denied allegations that the state agency used illegal phone malware in 2019-2022 to spy on targets, court documents show. – Reuters

UK travelers should prepare for long lines at the border during peak times when a new European Union system requiring Britons to share their biometric data is introduced in October, the government warned. – Bloomberg

Latin America

Nicolás Maduro claimed an unlikely victory in Venezuela’s presidential election Sunday, securing a third six-year term in a result that opposition leaders contested, saying the regime had likely falsified the vote count to ensure the strongman remained in power. – Wall Street Journal

Venezuela opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said early on Monday that opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez won 70% of the vote in a presidential contest over the weekend. – Reuters

The United States has serious concerns that results announced by Venezuela’s electoral authority declaring President Nicolas Maduro had won a third term, do not reflect the votes of the people, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday. – Reuters

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: Electronic voting machines produce a paper confirmation of the vote deposited in a box as the voter exits. Those ballots are to be counted by observers from both sides. But there are plenty of ways for the regime to cheat, which might send the nation into the streets. Most of Latin America has warned Mr. Maduro that state-sponsored violence will cost him. That’s one of many reasons Venezuelans believe this time will be different. – Wall Street Journal

United States

His path from Iraq to the Republican nomination underscores the shift in parts of the party away from use of the military to fight terror groups and stand up democracies overseas, an approach that Vance says put the burden on ordinary Americans, instead of “elites” who ordered the wars. – Wall Street Journal

Russian and Chinese warplanes were intercepted off the coast of Alaska by U.S. and Canadian fighters Wednesday, marking the first time strategic bombers from the two U.S. adversaries have operated together near North America, a U.S. official said. – Wall Street Journal

That crater is the expected outcome if the world’s two most valuable mining companies get the go-ahead for a massive copper mine to be built nearby—supplying as much as a quarter of the country’s current demand for the metal, which is seen as essential to everything from electric vehicles to the data centers powering the AI boom. – Wall Street Journal

Vice President Kamala Harris cast herself as the “underdog” in the presidential race and called her Republican opponent Donald Trump “just plain weird,” while Trump painted Harris as “evil,” “sick” and “unhinged” as the rivals exchanged barbs from afar on Saturday. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden will announce plans to reform the Supreme Court on Monday, Politico reported citing two people familiar with the matter, adding he was likely to back term limits for justices and an enforceable code of ethics. – Reuters

Editorial: Both candidates say they are running for office to help ordinary Americans. One way for Americans to judge those claims is by their campaigns. Good leaders speak, and they listen. They welcome scrutiny. They accept responsibility. Ms. Harris now has a chance to demonstrate that she will be the kind of leader who deserves the nation’s support. – New York Times

Editorial: The NDAA is imperfect. It fails to cut bases the military doesn’t need and cannot use except as local economic development projects. It also ignores an easy solution to the Navy’s shipbuilding crisis: allowing purchases from foreign manufacturers. “Build-in-America” sounds good but improves China’s chances of victory in a future war. Far greater investments in long-range land and naval attack missiles are also needed. – Washington Examiner

Matthew Yglesias writes: Harris’ public events since Biden stepped aside have electrified Democrats simply because, like the vast majority of successful politicians, she is more charismatic and articulate than the average person. And even though Harris is a dramatic improvement over Biden, she’s not the best communicator in the party. That title belongs to Pete Buttigieg — and that’s why she should choose him as her running mate. – Bloomberg

Eliot Wilson writes: It may well be that the Afghanistan War Commission produces an impeccable, insightful and indispensable analysis of the United States’s deployment in the region when it reports towards the end of the 2020s. There may be some lessons which foreign policy experts absorb and implement. But, given the experience in Britain with the Iraq Inquiry, I can only advise management of expectations if anyone thinks Washington’s global stance will alter radically or that individuals will be held to account. It is simply too long ago. – The Hill

Defense

The U.S. will establish a new military command in Japan to bolster security ties here as Washington moves to strengthen its Asia allies in the face of China’s military buildup, top American and Japanese officials said Sunday. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. military is building infrastructure in northern Australia to help it project power into the South China Sea if a crisis with China erupts, a Reuters review of documents and interviews with U.S. and Australian defence officials show. – Reuters

Joshua Morales writes: Failure to act decisively on this issue could result in a fleet less prepared for the demands of modern warfare, potentially eroding the United States’ long-standing dominance of the skies. Policies addressing the issue must not only enhance one side of the workforce. The approach should not only boost recruitment numbers but also provide modernized support and recognition for the experienced aircraft mechanics who serve as the backbone of military readiness. Their role, often overshadowed, is crucial for maintaining the reliability and lethality of American Airpower. – War on the Rocks

Benjamin Giltner writes: This short piece offers a small glimpse as to why more prudence is needed when it comes to defense spending in the United States. Restraining America’s military commitments abroad, along with policymakers and the American public having serious debates over defense spending programs, are the best pathways forward to resolving America’s defense spending process. Doing so will result in a healthier democracy and a more powerful America. – The National Interest