Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Weekslong Iranian protests over water scarcity present an early test for incoming president Ebrahim Raisi, who takes office next week amid mounting challenges including a grinding economic crisis and stalled nuclear negotiations with the West. – Wall Street Journal 

Classified documents, allegedly from Iran, reveal secret research into how a cyber attack could be used to sink a cargo ship or blow up a fuel pump at a petrol station. – Sky News (UK) 

Iran said Tuesday it had arrested an armed cell working for Israel’s Mossad spy agency that was planning to use a cache of weapons to provoke violence during protests in the country. – Times of Israel  

A 60-year-old Iranian citizen has been charged in Sweden with suspected war crimes committed in Iran in 1988 when around 5,000 political prisoners were executed on government orders, Stockholm prosecutors said on Tuesday. – Reuters  

Former German BND intelligence chief August Hanning opposes a return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran, he has told The Jerusalem Post in an interview. – Jerusalem Post 

Defense Minister Benny Gantz said in a special interview to a BBC journalist originally from Iran on Tuesday that “Iran is close to nuclear weapons when it comes to enrichment, but not so close in other ways.” – Jerusalem Post 

Editorial: What Israel can do, however, is to articulate its continued strong opposition to such a deal. To try to get commitments from Washington on how it will act if Tehran crosses certain red lines, to probe whether the US may be willing to “compensate” Israel by providing it with more advanced weaponry to deal with an increased Iranian threat, and make it clear that come what may, Israel’s policy will remain as it has been for the last 25 years: do all it can to ensure Iran never gets the bomb. – Jerusalem Post 

Lebanon

A bipartisan group of House lawmakers introduced a resolution on Monday to urge the European Union “to fully designate Hezbollah a terrorist organization.” – Jerusalem Post  

Aaron Jacob writes: Hezbollah is a threat to peace and security in the region and beyond. It is the main impediment to the fulfillment of UNIFIL’s mandate. The Security Council must use the powers conferred upon it by the UN Charter, including the power to impose sanctions on rogue organizations and their state sponsors, to uphold its resolutions regarding Lebanon. – Times of Israel 

Lauren Morganbesser writes: The future of Lebanon remains uncertain, especially with Mikati at the helm. For him to be successful, he must overcome significant barriers both politically and economically and bring together a deeply fractured and hurting country. He must also prove critics wrong, showing that his political experience will serve the people instead of further entrenching inefficiencies and corruption. Mikati’s challenges are clear, but he must stand apart from other politicians to usher in a new future for the sake of the Lebanese people. – Jerusalem Post 

Middle East & North Africa

But the narrative emerging from key players in the Arab world for which Tunisia’s Arab Spring legacy presents a clear challenge — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt — was far more univocal: The events in Tunisia marked the death knell for political Islam in democracy. – Washington Post 

Moroccan authorities have arrested a Uyghur activist in exile based on a Chinese terrorism warrant distributed by Interpol, according to information from Moroccan police and a rights group that tracks people detained by China. – Associated Press 

The leader of Tunisia’s Islamist party and speaker of parliament said Tuesday that his party is working to form a “national front” to counter President Kais Saied’s decision to suspend the legislature, fire top government officials and take control of the fragile democracy amid the country’s multi-layered crisis. – Associated Press 

The Biden administration is pulling all American troops out of Afghanistan and formally transitioning to an advisory role in Iraq. But the U.S. military operation in Syria has seen no changes — and officials expect hundreds of troops to remain in the country for the foreseeable future. – Politico 

World Bank President David Malpass met on Tuesday with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Washington, and emphasized the importance of banking sector reforms and moves to accelerate private sector investment, the bank said in a statement. – Reuters 

Americans would do well to pay less attention to negative propaganda about their country and realize that millions of people around the world, including in Iraq, appreciate the United States as a beacon of democracy and a force for progress in the world. – Washington Times  

Ezzedine C. Fishere  writes: This week, Tunisian President Kais Saied dismissed the country’s prime minister, suspended its parliament and deployed troops to ensure legislators did not enter the building. This constitutional coup appears a clear effort to replace the fragile democratic regime with strongman rule. It answers the wishes of millions of Tunisians disillusioned with their weak democracy, whose dysfunction is exposed by a rampant covid-19 pandemic. Yet, as the cases of Egypt and Saudi Arabia show, while strongman rule can bring a measure of stability and progress in the short run, it cannot fix the country’s deep-seated problems. – Washington Post 

Sarah Feuer writes: The dramatic developments are putting Tunisia’s fragile democracy under enormous strain, and the coming days will likely determine whether the country is headed for a temporary blip in its democratic transition, a deeper consolidation of power, or violence. – Washington Institute 

China

Satellite imagery appeared to show China building a new network of silos for launching nuclear missiles, a U.S. think tank said, the second such project that American analysts have accused Beijing of advancing in recent weeks. – Wall Street Journal 

The first person charged under a national-security law imposed by Beijing was found guilty of inciting secession and terrorism Tuesday in a verdict that reaffirms new limits on speech in the city and could set a precedent for future trials under the law. – Wall Street Journal 

Lawmakers in China plan to clear remaining legal barriers to encourage couples to have more children, as the country faces another year of fewer births. In a congressional meeting Tuesday, Chinese lawmakers said they would revise the Population and Family Planning Law in sessions scheduled between Aug. 17 and Aug. 20, according to a statement on the legislature’s website. – Wall Street Journal 

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday he was committed to having a constructive relationship with China and working on common challenges as he laid out his vision for ties with Beijing, which have sunk to their lowest point in decades. – Reuters 

China has created new legal tools to retaliate against sanctions imposed by the U.S. and some of its allies over issues ranging from human rights to national security. This arsenal could put global firms in the cross-hairs of a conflict between the world’s two largest economies. So far, however, China has shown a desire to avoid escalation. – Bloomberg  

The Pentagon and Republican congressmen on Tuesday aired fresh concerns about China’s build-up of its nuclear forces after a new report saying Beijing was building 110 more missile silos. – Reuters 

Editorial: Sorry. Under Mr. Xi, earlier rounds of economic reform are proving reversible, and Beijing won’t trouble itself about foreign investors losing money to Beijing’s regulatory caprice. Wall Street is the big loser this week, but the biggest loser will be the Chinese public who are finding that the promise of their country’s economic opening is under threat. – Wall Street Journal  

Tom Rogan writes: We’re about to find a guidepost as to whether China’s not-so-diplomatic rhetoric and its associated economic pressure will succeed. Much depends on whether Britain deploys a warship within 12 miles of an unlawfully claimed Chinese island in August. If it does, Britain will encourage Japan, Australia, and others to take further steps in support of a rules-based international order. If Britain fails to do so, Beijing will gain confidence the U.S. stands alone against it. Regardless, Beijing has at least proved one thing: It remains undeterred in its grand global ambition. – Washington Examiner 

Hal Brands writes: Americans have belatedly awoken to the reality of rivalry with China; the policy community endlessly debates whether Washington and Beijing are contesting a cold war. But outside the Pentagon, Americans have hardly considered a more sobering question: What if a cold war with China is actually the best-case scenario, because the danger of a devastating hot war is far greater than we realize? – Bloomberg 

Joseph Bosco writes: Beijing’s message, reiterated to Sherman, is clear: China’s authoritarian policies will remain unchanged, while America must abandon its interests and ideals — that is, stop being America.  The existential challenge could not be more stark, and it is now the Biden administration’s duty to take it on, more consistently than it has so far. – The Hill 

South Asia

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting India this week as the Biden administration seeks to reassure a key Asian partner over the U.S. and allied military withdrawal from Afghanistan and works to tighten security ties amid concern about Chinese influence in the region. – Wall Street Journal   

The name Noor Mukadam has ricocheted through Pakistani news and social media since the 27-year-old daughter of a former Pakistani diplomat was found beheaded at home in an upscale part of Islamabad, renewing attention on the country’s paltry record of addressing violence against women. – Washington Post  

Indian shares fell on Wednesday after the International Monetary Fund cut its 2021 economic growth forecast for the country, while weak global cues and concerns ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision also weighed on investor sentiment. – Reuters  

Russia

Challenging Vladimir Putin has always been difficult. Now his opponents say it is almost impossible, as the Kremlin launches a full-court press against anyone daring to stand up against the Russian president. – Wall Street Journal 

Russia is ready to provide its ally Tajikistan with any assistance needed amid a worsening conflict in neighbouring Afghanistan, the TASS news agency cited Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu as saying on Wednesday. – Reuters  

President Joe Biden warned on Tuesday that Russia is attempting to use disinformation to interfere in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections. – Bloomberg 

Annalena Baerbock, the Greens’ candidate to be chancellor of Germany, is attracting the attention of the Kremlin with her hawkish attitude to Russia and her slip-ups on the campaign trail have left her vulnerable. – Bloomberg 

Russia is reportedly working on two so-called Doomsday planes to carry the country’s senior military and political leadership in case of a nuclear attack. – Defense News 

Peter Brookes and Walker Venable write: Of course, considering the state of U.S.-Russia relations, we should keep our expectations for “progress” on those and other issues low. A thin gruel of a photo op and a joint statement may be all we get. But the opportunity for substantive dialogue is important. At this moment, more predictability, stability, and communications would be welcome in U.S.-Russian relations. – The Daily Signal 

Sarunas Liekis writes: As long as Russia refuses to recognize its neighbors’ international choices by reverting to power policies aimed at imposing its vision on the world, Russia‘s European neighbors will continue to be reluctant for the EU to foster closer relations with Russia. […]This problem has never been addressed seriously by the big European players who are seen continuously supporting decisions based on their own interests and go against values and normative issues carried by the weak EU members on the Russian frontier. – The National Interest 

Africa

Some 24,000 Eritrean refugees are trapped in two camps in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, cut off from humanitarian aid, and their food rations may have run out, the United Nations said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

The Biden administration on Tuesday announced a new push to expand business ties between U.S. companies and Africa, with a focus on clean energy, health, agribusiness and transportation infrastructure on the continent. – Reuters 

Unidentified attackers killed five Cameroonian soldiers and one civilian during a raid on a military outpost in the far north of the country, local authorities said on Tuesday, the second deadly raid in the area in the past week. – Reuters 

William Shoki writes: An uneasy calm has settled. How long it lasts is anyone’s guess. Yet the past few weeks have conclusively dispelled many illusions about the country, none more so than the myth of South African exceptionalism — of a South Africa more peaceful than its African neighbors, more developed and with a future that bends inevitably toward good and triumph. The reality, as we await the next outbreak of violence, is much uglier. – New York Times 

North America

In 2013, Daniel Hale was at an antiwar conference in D.C. when a man recounted that two family members had been killed in a U.S. drone strike. The Yemeni man, through tears, said his relatives had been trying to encourage young men to leave al-Qaeda. – Washington Post 

President Joe Biden on Tuesday warned that if the United States ended up in a “real shooting war” with a “major power” it could be the result of a significant cyber attack on the country, highlighting what Washington sees as growing threats posed by Russia and China. – Reuters  

A bipartisan Congressional panel blasted U.S.-based corporate sponsors of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics on Tuesday, including Coca-Cola, Visa Inc. and Airbnb, accusing them of putting profits ahead of accusations of genocide in China. – Reuters 

A former air force intelligence analyst was sentenced to 45 months in prison on Tuesday for leaking top secret information about the US government’s drone strike program to a journalist. – The Guardian  

John Bolton writes: Ironically, on issues where Mr. Trump closely followed traditional Republican lines—Iran, Venezuela and Cuba—Mr. Biden is having trouble reverting to the Democratic norm. Despite frantic efforts to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the president may be realizing how abject his surrender to Tehran would be, and may be backing off. And if he wants a prayer of carrying Florida in 2024, Cuba and Venezuela policies that look like Mr. Obama’s are sure losers. Only six months into Mr. Biden’s term, politics are reverting to familiar contours. – Wall Street Journal 

Defense

In their search for a new approach to arms control, Moscow and Washington are likely to soon encounter an old bugaboo: Russia’s demand that the U.S. stop resisting limits on its missile defenses, which the Russians view as a long-term threat and the Americans see as a deterrent to war. – Associated Press 

Russian aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi showed off its new Checkmate jet during the MAKS 2021 aviation show last week, presenting it as a fifth-generation fighter. – Defense News 

The commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center, Lt. Gen. John Thompson, officially retired during a July 27 ceremony at Los Angeles Air Force Base. The change comes ahead of a major organizational shakeup for SMC, with the U.S. Space Force planning to replace SMC with a new field command called Space Systems Command. The new organization will take over SMC’s roughly $9 billion budget while restructuring its various enterprises. – C4SIRNET 

Consensus is building on Capitol Hill that the Missile Defense Agency needs to provide more clarity on its plans for a missile defense architecture to protect Guam. – Defense News 

The pair of Ghost Fleet ships the Navy and the Pentagon’s Strategic Capabilities Office are using as testbeds to prove large autonomous vessels can operate effectively at sea are slowly moving toward completely unmanned operations. – USNI News

John Koszewnik and John Luginsland  write: Since World War II, the U.S. Army has used approximately 20 times more energy per soldier while reducing the number of soldiers deployed. This undoubtedly will continue in the future as new capabilities with higher-power weapons, novel sensors and robots, and advanced computing are envisioned. This highlights the importance of energy supply and management for the future battlefield. – Defense News 

John Rossomando writes: The Biden administration’s decision to spend trillions on pet projects in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, which the CCP let proliferate globally, killing four million worldwide, shows it has little excuse not to provide similar defense against a nuclear attack by a hostile peer like China. Although the chances of a nuclear exchange are statistically considered remote, there isn’t an excuse not to put defenses into place now instead of waiting until later. – The National Interest