Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Russian strikes continued in Ukraine as the Kremlin called on Kyiv to resume shipments of grain despite a Russian missile attack over the weekend that risked derailing a key deal aimed at easing a blockade on Ukraine’s ports. – Wall Street Journal

Russia said it would further reduce natural-gas supplies to Europe this week, lobbing another volley in its economic war with the West and raising new questions about Europe’s ability to avoid shutting down factories and leaving homes cold this winter. – Wall Street Journal

Russia is using more than a dozen so-called filtration centers in eastern Ukraine and western Russia to detain and deport thousands of Ukrainians, according to a newly declassified U.S. intelligence assessment. – New York Times

Russia’s top diplomat said Moscow’s overarching goal in Ukraine is to free its people from its “unacceptable regime,” expressing the Kremlin’s war aims in some of the bluntest terms yet as its forces pummel the country with artillery barrages and airstrikes. – Associated Press 

The appeal of Ukraine’s first war crimes conviction was adjourned on Monday, as prosecutors keep pushing to hold Russia legally accountable for atrocities even as fighting rages in the south and east of the country. – Associated Press 

The Russian authorities on Monday briefly detained a 72-year-old liberal politician who recently returned to Moscow from abroad, the latest move in a relentless crackdown on dissent amid Moscow’s military action in Ukraine. – Associated Press 

More than anyone in recent history, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has turned the words “regime change” into a slur against America. Now, after acknowledging that regime change is Moscow’s top goal in Ukraine, he may have to change his tune. – New York Sun

The chairman of the House Armed Services Committee accused the Russian military of “basically” committing genocide in various Ukrainian towns. Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), who returned from a trip to Kyiv this weekend where he and other members met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said on MSNBC on Monday, “When the Russians take over, they kill civilians. They just basically commit genocide in the towns.” – Washington Examiner

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s team dismissed Russian claims that Western sanctions have exacerbated the global food crisis as Moscow hopes to convert the controversy into a political advantage in the developing world. – Washington Examiner

Although top US Air Force officials have suggested that sending A-10 Warthogs to Ukraine to support the country in its fight against Russia is a possibility, a Ukrainian defense adviser said recently that the decades-old ground-attack aircraft are too “slow” and “vulnerable to the enemy’s air defenses.” – Business Insider

Russian police detained Leonid Gozman, an opposition politician, on Monday, his lawyer said, after a criminal case was opened over his alleged failure to inform the authorities swiftly enough about his citizenship of Israel. – Reuters

Editorial: They should also engage in more vigorous diplomacy with developing countries that have been notably more sympathetic to the Kremlin’s version of what is happening in Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked conflict continues to threaten starvation for millions. If that fate comes to pass, Moscow should not be allowed to wriggle out of the consequences. – Financial Times 

Alexander Baunov writes: Lithuania was a reliable transit hub for all goods entering the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad; now it is trying to limit the transit by interpreting EU sanctions as strictly as possible. Even sympathetic China has more leverage to buy Russian oil and gas with huge discounts. By changing the world order, Russia has discovered that it wasn’t only a victim but a part of it—and even a beneficiary. – Wall Street Journal

Peter Pomerantsev writes: The deal the two countries agreed on for Ukraine to resume grain exports is a welcome development, but it demonstrated the frailty of the world’s dependence on Russia’s good will, especially after Russian missile strikes hit the southern port of Odesa a day after the agreement was struck. Residual dependency is to always be vulnerable to Russia’s cycle of humiliation and aggression. “We want you to be with us,” the Russian soldier told Valentyna. But we know what “with us” really means. – New York Times

Jim Jones writes: The terrorist designation would further tighten economic restrictions on Russia, prohibit a broad range of dual-use exports and require the U.S. to take economic action against countries continuing to do business with Russia. More than anything, it would be a well-deserved recognition of the pariah status that Putin has earned for himself and his country. After all, he is the leading terrorist of the 21st century. – The Hill

Douglas London writes: Ukraine’s counterintelligence challenges are nothing new and pose risks that what the U.S. provides can fall into the hands of our adversaries, compromise capabilities, or at a minimum, focus Russia’s attention to targets against which we’re collecting. But there’s evident impact from U.S. support for Ukraine’s successful prosecution of key Russian targets identified via good intelligence. In the end, like the considerations associated with the increasingly sophisticated arms the U.S. is providing, intelligence decisions are a risk versus gain calculus done with open eyes. – The Hill

Harlan Ullman writes: Second, the U.S. must assert leadership abroad. Biden needs a summit with Putin and one with Xi. As Biden accepted the backlash for meeting with Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, he must do the same with Putin. The subject is how to reverse the adversarial and hostile relations that help no one. Ending tariffs with China and working out a new security relationship with Russia in Europe to include ending the Ukraine war are vital. – The Hill

Tom Rogan writes: This is not to say that negotiation with Russia is impossible or even undesirable. Again, the Cold War proved that the opposite is true. But negotiations with Putin’s Russia require a key ingredient that this proposal lacks: The provision of credible strength alongside the offer of compromise. If Russia wants ground-based U.S. nuclear weapons removed from Europe, it must verifiably do the same. – Washington Examiner

Nic Robertson writes: Guterres was right to be hopeful; the future effectiveness of the UN Security Council rides on his ability to keep Russia from escalating its war of choice. But if he was apprehensive at the signing table on Friday, nothing he has seen so far will assuage his fears. Not least Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Sunday embellishing the deal, claiming Russian vessels would help escort the cargo ships. A statement, like the missile strike, willfully aimed at goading Ukraine. – CNN

Afghanistan

The first of some 300 Afghan refugees arrived in Rome on Monday along a new humanitarian corridor organized by the Italian government, charities and international organizations, Italy’s Foreign Ministry announced. – Associated Press

U.S. and Taliban officials have exchanged proposals for the release of billions of dollars from Afghan central bank reserves held abroad into a trust fund, three sources familiar with the talks said, giving a hint of progress in efforts to ease Afghanistan’s economic crisis. – Reuters

Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in August 2021, Afghan children and teenagers have increasingly become the victims of starvation, child marriage, organ trafficking, and natural disasters. Growing evidence also indicates the Taliban are sexually exploiting young boys or using them as child soldiers. – Washington Examiner

Israel

The Israeli government is pushing back against moves by Moscow to outlaw the private agency that helps Russian Jews immigrate to Israel, ramping up tensions that have worsened between the two countries since the invasion of Ukraine in February. – Washington Post

Hundreds of Palestinian lawyers held a rare street protest Monday against what they described as the Palestinian Authority’s “rule by decree,” condemning PA President Mahmoud Abbas for governing without a parliament. – Agence France-Presse 

All of Israel is within the range of Hezbollah’s missiles, Lebanese Hezbollah terror leader Hassan Nasrallah said in an interview published Monday night. – Jerusalem Post 

US President Joe Biden’s recent visit to the region was a “big zero” and did not achieve anything for the Palestinians, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is reported to have told his confidants in Ramallah. – Jerusalem Post 

Israeli troops entered a West Bank town Monday evening to demolish the homes of two Palestinians accused of carrying out a deadly shooting attack in the settlement of Ariel in April, the military said. – Times of Israel 

A Palestinian man armed with a makeshift firearm was detained in the West Bank’s Etzion settlement bloc (Gush Etzion) on Monday afternoon, after starting a fire with a Molotov cocktail, the military said. – Times of Israel 

Israel’s Foreign Ministry has issued a travel warning to Israelis, warning them not to travel to Ukraine, including to Uman and the surrounding areas. – Arutz Sheva 

Editorial: Russia should not be bludgeoning Israel by taking action against the Jewish Agency. But Israel should likewise not be issuing ultimatums to Russia. Rather this issue – which is an important Israeli and Jewish one – needs to be dealt with quietly, in direct contact between leaders of both countries. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

South Korea is pouring resources into its strategy of deterring any North Korean nuclear attack by preparing for preemptive strikes if necessary, a strategy some experts say may exacerbate their arms race and risks miscalculation during a conflict. – Reuters

U.S. Army Apache attack helicopters based in South Korea are holding live-fire drills with rockets and guns for the first time since 2019, as the allies step up military exercises amid tension with North Korea. – Reuters

Donald Kirk writes: A nice sentiment indeed — except these people have no idea they’re being misled into saying exactly what Kim Jong-un wants to hear. Meanwhile the North is building ever more missiles and nukes for the express purpose of destroying the South Korean democracy that gives these protesters the right to demonstrate freely on North Korea’s behalf. – New York Sun

Asia

The U.S. is sending a high-profile diplomatic delegation to visit the Solomon Islands next week led by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and including Ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy. – Associated Press 

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the state funeral of Japanese former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Kremlin said on Monday. – Reuters

Chinese investment and trade — and possibly an invitation to the Group of 20 summit in Bali this fall — are on the table in talks Tuesday between visiting Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. – Associated Press 

Sri Lanka will restrict fuel imports for the next 12 months because of a severe shortage of foreign exchange, its energy minister said on Monday, as the island nation’s new government seeks to find a way out of a crippling economic crisis. – Reuters

Taiwan’s capital staged air raid drills Monday and its military mobilized for routine defense exercises, coinciding with concerns over a forceful Chinese response to a possible visit to the island by U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. – Associated Press 

Myanmar’s Southeast Asian neighbours issued a stinging rebuke on Tuesday of the ruling military’s execution of four political activists, calling it “highly reprehensible” and destructive to regional efforts to de-escalate the crisis. – Reuters

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday held separate calls with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, offering U.S. support for what he called a “historic opportunity” to achieve peace in the region. – The Hill

Michael Rubin writes: Beijing’s bluster aside, China has no right to Taiwan. Even Mao told hagiographer Edgar Snow that Taiwan was as distinct from China as Korea was. If China threatens Taiwan over Pelosi’s visit, the proper response is to deploy a carrier strike group to the region. Folding to Chinese bullying will only encourage more outrageous demands and further damage the international order. – Washington Examiner

Kamran Bokhari writes: In the short-term, land-locked Uzbekistan could establish trade routes that traverse the more secure parts of Afghanistan through Pakistan to reach the Indian Ocean and beyond, as well as through India and Bangladesh to Southeast Asia. Uzbekistan will need help from its allies and partners in the West to do this. The Tashkent Conference has the potential to not only help Uzbekistan manage Afghanistan but enhance security and stability across Central & South Asia. – The National Interest

Africa

French President Emmanuel Macron embarked on a three-nation tour of Africa Monday. The four-day visit to Cameroon, Benin and Guinea-Bissau is the French leader’s first diplomatic trip outside of Europe since winning re-election, showing how Africa is high on the list of priorities for the former colonial power. – Associated Press

The M23 rebel group killed at least 29 civilians over the last month since it took control of parts of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, according to Human Rights Watch. – Bloomberg

South Africa submitted a request for extradition from the United Arab Emirates of the Gupta brothers, who are wanted for allegedly masterminding the looting of billions of dollars from state entities on Monday. – Bloomberg

Hundreds of protesters attacked a United Nations peacekeeping force’s warehouse and looted offices on Monday in Goma in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, demanding that the mission leave for failing to protect the population. – Reuters

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Lavrov wrote an article while traveling to Africa in which he says that Russia supports Africa “in its struggle to escape the eternal colonial yoke.” Moscow claims that sanctions have exacerbated “negative trends and dynamics” in the international market for basic necessities. […]The trip illustrates how Russia is able to use the Ukraine war to its benefit, blame the West for the food shortage caused by the war, and then leverage the war to get sanctions reduction and a closer alliance with Turkey. – Jerusalem Post

Cybersecurity

The White House announced on Monday that it was hiring a former Google executive to join the Office of the National Cyber Director where she will focus on improving and developing the nation’s cyber ecosystem. – The Hill

Italian authorities are investigating the theft of roughly 78 gigabytes of data stolen from Italy’s tax agency, l’Agenzia delle Entrate, the Italian news agency ANSA reported Monday. – CyberScoop

A Russia-based ransomware command and control network has been found to have a foothold in at least one U.S. network, according to researchers from attack surface management firm Censys. – The Record

Long War

Two decades after his arrest, the suspected organizer of a deadly 2000 al-Qaida attack on a U.S. Navy warship faced the possibility of further delays of his Guantanamo trial after his defense lawyer on Monday pressed to be allowed to leave the case over an alleged conflict of interest. – Associated Press

On Sunday night, the IDF, Israel Security Agency (Shabak), and Israel Border Police forces conducted counterterrorism activities in a number of locations in Judea and Samaria, including in the towns of Anata, Dura and Deir Abu Masha’al. – Arutz Sheva 

Yossi Yehoshua writes: The IDF engaged the militants in Nablus between 1:20 and 5:00am, resulting in the death of two terrorists. Palestinian health officials said 16 others were wounded, and one of them severely. The operation’s overt objective was to seize weapons and arrest terror suspects, but its covert one was to make terrorists feel unsafe even in their safe space.  – Ynet

Colin P. Clarke and Tore Refslund Hamming write: After 9/11, the U.S. was unwilling to accept nearly any risk in terms of transnational terrorist groups. But following two decades of spilling blood and treasure while chasing terrorists to every corner of the globe, war-weariness has set in and the focus has shifted from violent non-state actors to near-peer competition with nation-states and great powers. This development will offer welcome respite to jihadist groups in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa that are working to reestablish their organizational and operational capabilities and take advantage of a far less aggressive global counterterrorism campaign against jihadist groups. – The Hill