Fdd's overnight brief

Hezbollah

Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations on Tuesday accused Iran of exploiting civilian companies and maritime channels to smuggle weapons manufacturing equipment to its Lebanese proxy group, Hezbollah. – Times of Israel

The Hezbollah operative killed in Syria was part of the group’s clandestine “Golan File” which aims to establish and entrench a covert force in the Syrian Golan Heights that is designed to act against Israel when given the order.  – Jerusalem Post

Lebanon accused Israel on Tuesday of threatening its civilian infrastructure after Israel told the United Nations Security Council that Iran was exploiting the Port of Beirut to smuggle weapons to the Hezbollah movement. – Reuters

Turkey

President Trump sparred Tuesday with a top Senate Republican during a closed-door meeting at the White House over how severely to punish Turkey for purchasing a Russian antimissile system, according to officials familiar with the matter, as he pushed back against senators advocating for bringing the full force of sanctions against the NATO ally. – Washington Post

Top Turkish and Jordanian officials sought to deepen relations in talks on Tuesday, days after the kingdom restored full ties with Ankara’s ally Qatar, in what officials say is a realignment by Jordan away from longtime Gulf partners. – Reuters

Gonul Tol writes: Turkey began taking delivery of the first Russian S-400s last week despite repeated warnings from the U.S., and the new missile defense system has received a warm welcome. […]The U.S. response followed several days later, when it officially expelled Turkey from the F-35 stealth fighter jet program in retaliation. Turkey, one of the largest F-35 export customers, had planned to buy 100 jets. It was also involved in the F-35’s production as one of eight partner countries that joined the program in 2002, manufacturing some 900 parts for the plane. The U.S. announcement has not changed the jubilant mood in Ankara, although it has underscored the need for Turkey to find — or develop — an alternative. – Middle East Institute

Gulf States

France, Italy and Denmark gave initial support for a British plan for a European-led naval mission to ensure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, proposed after Iran’s seizure of a British-flagged tanker, three senior EU diplomats said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The top Republican and Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee are accusing each other of making misleading statements as the Senate prepares bills to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. – Politico

Plans for a European-led maritime security force in the Gulf unveiled by the UK foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, hit choppy waters as the plan was rejected by Iran and met resistance from supporters of the incoming prime minister, Boris Johnson. – The Guardian

Anthony H. Cordesman writes: It is all too tempting to focus narrowly on the maritime crisis in the Gulf, and the potential threat to the flow of petroleum and the world’s economy. This is where the daily headlines focus, and some form of threat is all too real. In practice, however, the U.S. already faces other threats in the region and from Iran, and at least one is potentially far more serious in grand strategic terms. These “other threats” include Yemen, Syria, and the failures of the Arab Gulf states to unite in creating an effective defense against Iran. Most importantly, they include the U.S. and Arab struggle with Iran for influence in the Gulf. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Korean Peninsula

The first joint patrol by Russian and Chinese bombers aimed at testing the air defenses of U.S. allies in northeast Asia triggered a rare clash as South Korean fighters scrambled to ward off what Seoul said was an intrusion into its airspace. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. national security adviser John Bolton met with South Korean officials on Wednesday to discuss major bilateral issues amid South Korea’s trade spat with Japan, stalled nuclear talks with North Korea, and a regional air space dispute on Tuesday. – Reuters

North Korea is holding 15 Russian and two South Korean crew of a fishing vessel for violating entry regulations, the Russian Embassy in North Korea said on Wednesday. – Reuters

North Korea on Monday recalled the days of “fire and fury” by releasing images of leader Kim Jong Un touring a suspected nuclear-capable submarine, and a close reading of the images reveal once again that a US fight with North Korea could mean death for millions in the region, and suicide for Pyongyang, the country’s capital. – Business Insider

South Korea protested on Wednesday against a Japanese plan to remove it from a Japanese list of countries that face minimum trade restrictions, saying it would undermine their decades-old economic and security cooperation and threaten free trade. – Reuters

Japan’s top government spokesman said on Wednesday the country’s relationship with South Korea was in a “very severe” state and that Tokyo would continue to urge Seoul to take appropriate action over a string of issues that have frayed bilateral ties. – Reuters

Russia told South Korea that an equipment malfunction led its military aircraft into an unintended area on Tuesday, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported, citing the South Korean presidential office. – Reuters

Tom Rogan writes: Firing more than 350 rounds in warning off a Russian radar aircraft that twice entered its airspace on Tuesday, South Korea signaled its resolve to Russia, China, and indirectly, also North Korea. […]The U.S. should welcome this courage. The evolving Chinese-Russian alliance intends to undercut the American-led democratic international order. It requires riposte wherever it figuratively or literally (as in this case) crosses the line. – Washington Examiner

Kyle Mizokami writes: North Korea’s reliance on submarines exposes a harsh reality for the country: U.S. and South Korean naval and air forces are now so overwhelmingly superior that the only viable way for Pyongyang’s navy to survive is to go underwater. While minimally capable versus the submarine fleets of other countries, North Korea does get a great deal of use out of them. Although old and obsolete, North Korea’s submarines have the advantage of numbers and, in peacetime, surprise. Pyongyang’s history of armed provocations means the world hasn’t seen the last of her submarine force. – The National Interest

Claude Barfield writes: Taking a page possibly from the United States’ Huawei playbook, the Japanese government has started a process that could lead to a total cutoff of Korean companies from vital elements necessary for the manufacture of semiconductors and panel displays. The point of this blog is not to take sides on the tortured history of Japanese-Korean relations over the past century. Rather, it is to argue that even with possible provocations, Japan has chosen a dangerous and destructive mode of retaliation, one that is likely to greatly disrupt global electronic supply chains and bolster China’s push for 5G wireless dominance. – American Enterprise Institute

South Asia

Afghanistan demanded a clarification on Tuesday of President Trump’s comments a day earlier that he could have had the country “wiped off the face of the earth” but did not “want to kill 10 million people.” – New York Times

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan said Tuesday that the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan between the U.S.-backed government and Taliban forces could have continued for another two decades were it not for President Trump. – The Hill

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi never asked U.S. President Donald Trump to help mediate with Pakistan in their dispute over the Kashmir region, the government said on Tuesday, after Trump’s comments set off a storm of criticism. – Reuters

The operation that led to the killing of arch-terrorist Osama bin Laden continues to strain U.S.-Pakistani relations more than eight years after the fact, but Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan offered a distinctly different narrative Tuesday than what is commonly accepted by U.S. officials. – Washington Examiner

Ali J. Siddiqui writes: By striking a personal bond with a promise to work closely with each other in the months to follow, President Trump and Prime Minister Khan are creating the conditions for a peaceful South Asia and an enduring partnership between the two countries. This is a momentous opportunity. – The Hill

Europe

Boris Johnson won the race to lead the ruling Conservative Party and become Britain’s next prime minister, repeating in his victory speech a pledge to pull the nation out of the European Union by Oct. 31—but the challenge he faces to meet that deadline became quickly apparent. – Wall Street Journal

France’s parliament approved on Tuesday the EU-Canada trade agreement with a relatively small majority, meaning that a significant part of President Emmanuel Macron’s party voted against it. – Reuters

Bulgarian President Rumen Radev on Tuesday vetoed a deal to buy eight new Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jets, describing a lack of consensus over the purchase as “extremely worrying”. […]The Black Sea state, a staunch Washington ally, is looking to replace its ageing Soviet-made MiG-29 aircraft after 2023 and improve its compliance with NATO standards. – Reuters

A leading UK Jewish group expressed “no confidence” in Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s pledge to quickly purge antisemites from party ranks. – Algemeiner

Editorial: Calling an election would be risky—not least because the opposition Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn, a 100-proof socialist who is anti-American and has winked at anti-Semitism. The centrist Liberal Democrats this week elected a new leader, and that anti-Brexit party could also scramble the electoral possibilities. The best outcome would be for Mr. Johnson and the Tories to unite around a Brexit deal with the EU or, barring that, leave on Oct. 31. – Wall Street Journal

Dov S. Zakheim writes: The shortfall in both American and British warships is especially worrying with regard to the eastern Baltic Sea, where Russian forces loom large, and whose littoral includes five NATO allies. While the Baltic states are too small to field major navies, Poland and Germany likewise have allowed their naval forces to atrophy. The German Navy is barely operational; most of its ships are tied up in port. The Polish Navy is hardly better; the Polish fleet is desperately in need of modernization.  – The Hill

Dalibor Rohac writes: After all, the UK and the EU are America’s closest friends and allies, and, as of now, the only alternative to Johnson is the power-hungry Jeremy Corbyn, a retrograde 1970s-style socialist, anti-Semite, and enemy of Western alliances who makes “The Squad” on this side of the Atlantic look centrist and reasonable in comparison. For those reasons alone, one might want to wish Johnson the best — while bracing for some very difficult years for the transatlantic relationship. – American Enterprise Institute

Latin America

Now, researchers are reporting results from the first brain-imaging studies of 40 of those diplomats, who were carefully examined by neurologists after returning home from Cuba. The study, appearing on Tuesday in the medical journal JAMA, concludes that the diplomats experienced some kind of brain trauma. But the nature and cause of that trauma were not clear, as it did not resemble the signature of more familiar brain injuries such as repeated concussions or exposure to battlefield blasts.- New York Times

President Trump threatened Guatemala with tariffs and other retaliation Tuesday for backing away from talks on its potential designation as a safe third country for asylum seekers on their way north, a move that would have allowed the United States to push more migrants away from the southern border. – Washington Post

Venezuela’s National Assembly approved a law returning the OPEC nation to a regional defense treaty on Tuesday, but opposition leader Juan Guaido sought to tamp down supporters’ hopes it could lead to President Nicolas Maduro’s imminent downfall. – Reuters

Venezuela’s opposition, including representatives of its leader Juan Guaido, has been in contact with Moscow, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on its website on Tuesday. – Reuters

Guatemala’s Foreign Minister Sandra Jovel on Tuesday blamed unnamed “national actors” for damaging relations with the United States and said they would be responsible if U.S. President Donald Trump puts tariffs on the poor Central American nation. – Reuters

Nayib Bukele writes: Developing a safe El Salvador is a first step toward ending the exodus of Salvadorans to the United States. The main reason cited by our compatriots who flee our country is the lack of safety and security they face in their own neighborhoods. – Washington Post

Defense

FBI Director Christopher Wray said that China is the greatest counterintelligence threat facing the U.S. but warned that Russia is a close runner-up as Moscow remains focused on disrupting the upcoming presidential election. – Washington Examiner

Lockheed Martin, the defense contractor building the F-35, expects no problem finding other buyers for the stealth fighters Turkey planned to purchase before the U.S. blocked sales to the country last week. – Washington Examiner

A team of researchers from South Korea and California has figured out how to detect incredibly small disturbances in radar returns that could indicate the presence of small drones, perhaps as far as three kilometers away — enough to give airports, police, and militaries a big hand in stopping them. – Defense One